Macroeconomics at the crossroads: Stagflation and the struggle between “Keynesian” and New Classical macroeconometric programs

Résumé

Lucas and Sargent’s “After Keynesian Macroeconomics” is considered as a cornerstone of macroeconomics history and is supposed to have seriously undermined “Keynesian” approach to macroeconometric modelling. I study the context of this article, its writing, its presentation in a conference with many advocates of large-scale models and the debates that followed. I demonstrate that the issue of stagflation was closely linked to Lucas and Sargent’s argument, and the opposition of “Keynesians” relied on their different interpretation of stagflation. I show this interpretation of stagflation led to a different research program, which has been overlooked by history of macroeconomics.

Aurélien Goutsmedt

Chargé de Recherche FNRS

Je travaille sur l’histoire de la macroéconomie et l’expertise économique.