Topic-Modelling

The ECB and the Inflation Monsters: Strategic Framing and the Responsibility Imperative (1998-2023)

The recent resurgence of inflation in Europe has led the ECB to increase interest rates and phase out asset purchase programs designed to address the effects of the Great Financial Crisis. This article investigates how the ECB adjusts its logic of responsibility throughout this series of crises. Using a topic model and in-depth analysis of speeches, we examine the ECB's strategic framing of linkages related to inflation during three historical periods: the Central Bank Independence (CBI) era (1998-2011), the secular stagnation era (2011-2021), and the new inflation era (2021-). Our findings indicate that modifications made to the CBI's linkages during the secular stagnation era shaped the ECB's framing of the new inflation era in a novel way. However, despite acknowledging difficult policy tradeoffs, which they used to downplay in the past, ECB policymakers have continued to reframe its initial imperative of responsibility in the hope of avoiding policy discussions on regime change.

Petit guide pour apprendre R à destination des historiens de l'économie

Lorsque la tentation est grande de s'essayer aux méthodes quantitatives, la première question qui vient à l'esprit est probablement ≪ mais comment faire, et quels outils dois-je apprendre à utiliser ? ≫. Je donne ici quelques arguments pour vous engager dans l'apprentissage de R et présente ensuite différents tutoriels et packages R utiles aux historiens de l'économie.

The Scientific and the Political: Modelling and Forecasting the Economy in Policymaking Institutions

The objective of the project is to map the different channels through which economics influences the Bank and to understand how economic ideas impact (or do not impact) policy-making

Excavating the Academia/Policy Pipeline - Economic Analysis at the Bank of England Pre and Post-Crisis

The objective of the project is to map the different channels through which economics influences the Bank and to understand how economic ideas impact (or do not impact) policy-making

Six Decades of Economic Research at the Bank of England

This paper discusses the transformation of the content, role, and status of economic research at the Bank of England (BoE) in the past 60 years. We show how three factors (policy functions and missions of the Bank, its organisational structure, and the attitude of its executives towards economics) shaped the evolution of in-house BoE economic research during three distinctive periods (1960-1991; 1992-2007; 2007 - 2020). Our account relies on a broad set of sources and methods (BoE publications, archives, interviews with current and former BoE economists, citation analysis, prosopography, and topic modelling).