Technical Appendix
The ECB and the inflation monsters: strategic framing and the responsibility imperative (1999-2023)
2023-10-26
library(tidyverse)
library(data.table)
library(here)
library(kableExtra)
library(tidytext)
library(DT)
data_path <- "C:/Users/goutsmedt/Documents/MEGAsync/Research/R/projets/data/green_ecb_responsiveness"
source(here(path.expand("~"), "green_ecb", "function", "functions_for_topic_modelling.R"))
K = 120
# load the topics stats and gamma attributes
lda <- readRDS(here(data_path, "topic_modelling", paste0("LDA_", K, ".rds")))
lda_data <- readRDS(here(data_path,
"topic_modelling",
paste0("LDA_", K, "_data.rds"))) %>%
as.data.table() %>%
.[, period := case_when(between(date, "1998-11-20", "2011-11-08") ~ "Period_1",
between(date, "2011-11-08", "2021-09-01") ~ "Period_2",
between(date, "2021-09-01", "2023-02-01") ~ "Period_3")]
lda_proximity <- readRDS(here(data_path,
"topic_modelling",
"similarities_LDA.rds"))
topics_to_look <- lda_proximity %>%
filter(rank <= 5 | topic %in% c(114, 21, 91, 103),
! topic %in% c(78, 76, 115, 43, 74, 109, 56, 61)) %>%
distinct(topic)
inflation_topics <- lda_data %>%
filter(inflation_topic == TRUE) %>%
distinct(topic)
topics_to_look <- bind_rows(inflation_topics, topics_to_look) %>%
mutate(rank = row_number())
data_year_subset <- lda_data %>%
filter(! is.na(period)) %>%
.[,`:=` (mean = mean(gamma),
st_err = sd(gamma)/sqrt(length(gamma))), by = .(topic, period)] %>%
.[order(period, desc(mean)),] %>%
distinct(topic, topic_name, inflation_topic, period, mean, st_err) %>%
.[, rank := 1:.N, by = period] %>%
pivot_wider(names_from = "period", values_from = c("mean", "st_err", "rank"))
topics_per_speech <- lda_data %>%
.[, gamma_speech := mean(gamma), by = .(topic, file)] %>%
select(topic, file, title, year, date, speaker_cleaned, gamma_speech, pdf_link, period) %>%
unique()# Calculate top frex and lift value for the topic
beta_lda <- tidy(lda, matrix = "beta") %>%
group_by(topic) %>%
slice_max(order_by = beta, n = 15, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
mutate(rank_beta = 1:n()) %>%
select(topic, term_beta = term, rank_beta, beta)
frex_lda <- calculate_frex(lda, 15, 0.5, topic_method = "LDA") %>%
group_by(topic) %>%
slice_max(order_by = frex, n = 15, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
ungroup() %>%
select(term_frex = term, rank_frex = rank, frex)
lda_words <- beta_lda %>%
bind_cols(frex_lda)
# Most representative speech
top_speech_paragraphs <- lda_data %>%
select(topic, document_id, title, date, speaker_cleaned, period, pdf_link, paragraphs, gamma) %>%
group_by(topic) %>%
slice_max(gamma, n = 10, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
mutate(title_link = paste0("[", title, "](", pdf_link, ")"),
paragraphs = str_trunc(paragraphs, 800, "right") %>% str_squish(),
gamma = round(gamma, 3)) %>%
ungroup()
top_speech <- topics_per_speech %>%
select(topic, file, title, date, speaker_cleaned, period, pdf_link, gamma_speech) %>%
group_by(topic) %>%
slice_max(gamma_speech, n = 15, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
mutate(title_link = paste0("[", title, "](", pdf_link, ")"),
gamma_speech = round(gamma_speech, 3)) %>%
ungroup()
# Most representative speech per period
top_speech_paragraphs_period <- lda_data %>%
select(topic, document_id, title, date, speaker_cleaned, period, pdf_link, paragraphs, period, gamma) %>%
filter(! is.na(period)) %>%
group_by(period, topic) %>%
slice_max(gamma, n = 5, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
mutate(title_link = paste0("[", title, "](", pdf_link, ")"),
paragraphs = str_trunc(paragraphs, 800, "right") %>% str_squish(),
gamma = round(gamma, 3)) %>%
ungroup()
top_speech_period <- topics_per_speech %>%
select(topic, file, title, date, speaker_cleaned, period, pdf_link, gamma_speech, period) %>%
filter(! is.na(period)) %>%
group_by(period, topic) %>%
slice_max(gamma_speech, n = 5, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
mutate(title_link = paste0("[", title, "](", pdf_link, ")"),
gamma_speech = round(gamma_speech, 3)) %>%
ungroup()
# ordering topics
list_topics <- data_year_subset %>%
mutate(prevalence = mean_Period_1 + mean_Period_2 + mean_Period_3) %>%
filter(topic %in% topics_to_look$topic) %>%
arrange(desc(inflation_topic), desc(prevalence)) %>%
mutate(topic_name = paste0("Topic ", topic, ": ", topic_name),
rank = row_number())1 Introduction
Our article seeks to understand the transformations in ECB’s framing of inflation issue between 1998 and early 2023. To observe these transformations, we use topic modeling on a corpus of ECB policymakers’ speeches.
Topic modeling is a method used to uncover hidden themes (the topics) in a large corpus of text data. It is an “unsupervised” method that automatically identifies structures and categories in an unstructured corpus. This technical appendix provides all the details on our implementation and use of this method.
2 Step 1: Creating the corpus
Our corpus is compose of the speeches of ECB’s board members between 1998-11-20 and 2023-02-01 listed on the Bank of International Settlements website. We have used tesseract (Ooms 2022) for Optical Character Recognition on some speeches for which recognition was not good. Thanks notably to R packages Tidytext (Silge and Robinson 2016) and tokenizers (Mullen et al. 2018), we divide each speech in a sequence of paragraphs. We remove bibliography paragraphs as well as paragraph with acknowledgements.
We want to focus on speeches that deal substantially with inflation. We thus decide to keep only the speeches that mention a certain number of times words containing “inflation” (“inflation”, “inflationary”, “disinflation” etc.). To take into account the length of a speech, we divide the frequency of “inflation” words by the speech number of pages. We test three thresholds under which we remove a speech:
- a small threshold: in average, more than one occurrence per page of “inflation” in the speech;
- a medium threshold: in average, more than one and half occurrence per page;
- a large threshold: in average, more than 2 occurrences per page.
Here is the number of speeches in the corpus depending on the threshold we use:
knitr::include_graphics(here::here("pictures", glue::glue("threshold_corpus_absolute.png")))
We see that it leads to remove a lot of speeches between 2009 and 2013, a sign that inflation was a less important issue at this time. But the differences between the different thresholds are not very large in average. We decide to take the more restrictive threshold (2 * number of pages), which gives us 817 speeches. This choice gives us a sufficiently large corpus to have a representative sample of speeches on inflation, while avoiding to integrate speeches in which inflation is not so central.
3 Step 2: Choosing the appropriate topic model
3.1 Step 2.a: Pre-processing of the corpus
Texts are tokenized with tidytext (Silge and Robinson 2016) and tokenizers (Mullen et al. 2018) packages. We keep unigrams (like “price”), bigrams (“price stability”) and trigrams (“maintain price stability”). The corpus is organised in paragraphs: the documents in the topic modelling are the 6818 paragraphs of the 817 speeches. This allows (i) for a more fine-grained understanding of what the whole speech is about as well as (ii) to measure more accurately correlation between topics, at the paragraph level.
We remove the words in the stopwords lists “nltk” and “iso” implemented in R packages stopwords (Benoit, Muhr, and Watanabe 2021). These are large list of stopwords, allowing us to remove unnecessary words in our analysis.1 We lemmatize each word using the dictionary incorporated in textstem (Rinker 2018).
3.2 Step 2.b: Evaluating different models
3.2.1 Latent Dirichlet Allocation
To run our topic model, we use the usual Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), which is a probabilistic generative model employed in machine learning to detect topics present in a collection of a document. It presupposes that each document comprises a blend of a limited number of concealed topics, with each word in the document generated by one of those topics.
The LDA model characterizes each document as a distribution of topics, wherein each topic is a distribution over words. It uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability distribution of topics and words within each document, as well as the overall distribution of topics in the entire collection.
The algorithm encompasses three steps:
- initializing the topic and word distributions
- iteratively allocating words in each document to topics based on their likelihood of belonging to each topic
- updating the topic and word distributions according to the assignments. The process persists until convergence is achieved, at which point the topic and word distributions are utilized to determine the most probable topics within each document.
We use the LDA model as it has been proved useful in many research (Boyd-Graber, Hu, and Mimno 2017; Nelson 2020; Macanovic 2022). The structural topic model [STM; Roberts et al. (2013)] has been often used by political scientists in the recent years. It allows to “incorporate structure” in the model (Grimmer, Roberts, and Stewart 2022, 244) by integrating additional categories attributed to the document (e.g., the writer, the audience, the year, etc…), and observe, notably, how topics prevalence varies depending on these categories. However, the only relevant metadata in our case was the date of speeches, and the LDA allows to take into account conveniently the variation of topics prevalence over time. We thus felt that it was not needed to go for another type of model.
3.2.2 Choosing the model
Denny and Spirling (2018) have shown that the choice of pre-processing steps (lemmatization or stemming, choosing stop words to remove, filtering rare words, etc.) and their order may have a large impact on the results of topic modelling. One risk according to Denny and Spirling (2018) is to choose the results that correspond the most to what the authors want to say. We took care of Denny and Spirling’s point in three ways.
3.2.2.1 Pre-processing choices
First, we adopted specific pre-processing choices and we stuck to them (lemmatisation, large list of stop words, keeping also bigrams and trigrams; see section 3.1). Consequently, we were not able to manipulate these pre-processing steps to obtain the results we wanted.
3.2.2.2 Testing different models
Second, we have tested different preprocessing regarding one crucial choice: the filtering of rare words. We have tested three different thresholds, by removing all the ngrams which appear less than 5, 10 or 20 times. This results in a different vocabulary. We run our LDA model for each of these vocabulary lists.
We also test different models for different number of topics, from 30 topics to 160, going 10 by 10. For each of our three vocabulary filters, we thus run 14 models with a different number of topics, for a total of 42 models. We use both quantitative and qualitative approaches to choose our filtering threshold and the number of topics.
First, we perform 4 quantitative metrics implemented in Nikita (2020) for our different models. Two metrics inspired by Arun et al. (2010) and Cao et al. (2009) has to be minimized; the two others, inspired by Griffiths and Steyvers (2004) and Deveaud, SanJuan, and Bellot (2014) has to be maximized. Here is an interactive figure to observe the results for the different pre-processing methods (method 1 for more than 5 occurrences; method 2 for more than 10; and method 3 for more than 20). The crosses indicate the maximized and minimized values.
htmltools::includeHTML(here::here("writing", "tuning_topicmodels.html"))We select different number of topics for each method, where the average metrics appear good. The number of topics chosen is indicated by vertical line. We have selected 6 models, with different combinations of pre-processing method and number of topics, to be evaluated qualitatively. The qualitative assessment allows us to evaluate the “interpretability” of our different models. Interpretability in topic modeling refers to the ability for humans to understand and make sense of the topics that are generated by the model. In other words, an interpretable topic model is one that produces topics that are meaningful, coherent, and useful for understanding the underlying structure of the data.
One method for evaluating the interpretability of topic models is called the “intruder” method (Chang et al. 2009). The intruder method involves adding a word that does not belong to a given topic into the list of top words for that topic and evaluating whether the human evaluator can identify the “intruder” word. If the human evaluator can easily identify the intruder word, then the topic is considered to be more interpretable. This method provides a useful way to compare the interpretability of different topic models.
For each topic models, we select randomly 30 topics in which a intruder has to be found. The whole list of topics (with 180 topics) is sampled: there is no way to connect a topic to evaluate with the model it comes from. We reproduce this three times to give to evaluate to three different human coders. The following figure displays the result:
knitr::include_graphics(here::here("pictures", glue::glue("plot_intruder.png")))
After looking to the details of two best topic modelling (55 topics with pre-processing method 2; 120 topics with method 3), it appears that choosing 120 topics allowed for more granularity in the evolution of ECB communication. We thus choose the model with 120 topics and a vocabulary of 5707 words and expressions.
3.2.2.3 Validation of the model
The third step to take care of the quality of our preprocessing choices and our model was to validate it according to our knowledge of the ECB’s communication history. Many easily interpretable topics are highly prevalent at moments of time when we can expect that they will be. This testifies of the quality of our model, and thus gives us confidence to push further our interpretation of the results. Here are a set of examples, linked to very specific dates in the history of the Eurosystem:
- The first of January 2002, twelve countries adopted the Euro. Topic 89 about “cash and banknotes” is highly prevalent in 2002.
- The ECB started quantitative easing with its asset purchase programmes in October 2014. Topic 4 on this matter started to be prevalent at this time.
- The topic 34 about financial crisis was highly prevalent in 2008-2010.
- The Topic 15 about the Covid pandemic and the ECB “Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme” appears after 2020 and started to decrease at the end of 2021.
- In February 2022 started the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The topic 12 about the war in Ukraine started to pop up in 2022.
knitr::include_graphics(here::here("pictures", glue::glue("plot_validation.png")))
4 Step 3: Analysing the results
4.1 General presentation of the topic model
To understand our 120 topics, we first look at two types of statistics:
- the top “beta” words, i.e. the list of the top words for each topic. These are the words that have the highest probability of appearing in the documents that are assigned to that topic. Examining the top words can give a sense of the general theme or subject matter of the topic.
- the FREX value (Bischof and Airoldi 2012) is a metric for evaluating the quality of keywords within a topic. It takes into account both the frequency of a given word within a topic and the exclusivity of that word to that topic (i.e. the degree to which the word is used almost exclusively within that topic).
These two sets of keywords allows to distinguish between 14 topics on inflation and price stability and other topics. The 14 are the topics which have “inflation” or “price” in their 5 top beta words.
Here is the list of the 120 topics and of their prevalence across the three periods. Red filling represents a high prevalence, grey a middle one and blue a low one. You can order the column by prevalence, as well as filter the topics according to keywords.
lda_words_collapsed <- lda_words %>%
filter(rank_beta <= 10) %>%
select(-starts_with("rank")) %>%
group_by(topic) %>%
summarise(across(starts_with("term"), ~str_flatten(., collapse = "; "))) %>%
left_join(select(data_year_subset, topic, starts_with("mean")))
quants <- quantile(lda_words_collapsed$mean_Period_1)[2:4]
datatable(lda_words_collapsed,
class = 'cell-border stripe',
rownames = FALSE) %>%
formatStyle(names(lda_words_collapsed)[4:6],
backgroundColor = styleInterval(c(quants[1], quants[2], quants[3]), c('lightgray', "lightblue", "pink", "red")))We assess the prevalence per period by averaging the “gamma” values of all paragraphs published in a period with the corresponding topic. The “gamma” value measure the strength of the association between a document (here a speech paragraph) and a topic.
4.2 Evolution of topics over time
To obtain a more fine-grained overview of the evolution of each topic, we can regress the gamma values of each topic on dates. In other words, we take the average of gamma values for each topic at the different dates of speech publication, and we want to create a smooth curve that represents the overall trend of topics over time. We are using an estimation method called “loess” to create a smooth curve that connects those average values. The loess method works by fitting a series of local polynomial regression models to the data, with each model centered on a particular point along the x-axis (in this case, the dates). The resulting curve is a smoothed representation of the data that helps to highlight the overall trend while minimizing the impact of random fluctuations or outliers.2
Here is the evolution of the topics over time:
knitr::include_graphics(here::here("pictures", glue::glue("TM_LDA_topic_per_date.png")))
We use the same method to produce the figures on topics evolution in the article.
We can also zoom on the 14 topics on inflation and price stability.
knitr::include_graphics(here::here("pictures", glue::glue("TM_LDA_main_topic_per_date.png")))
4.3 Calculating similarities
Beyond observing the variation of topics prevalence over time, we also rank the non-inflation topics according to their similarity to the inflation and price stability topics. For each paragraph, we average the gamma values associated with the 14 topics on inflation. We then compare this vector of average gamma values, with the vector of gamma values for each other topic. For each period, we use two similarity measures:
- Cosine similarity measures the cosine of the angle between two vectors in a high-dimensional space. In the context of topic modeling, each topic distribution can be seen as a vector in a high-dimensional space, where the dimensions correspond to the different documents of the corpus.
- Jensen-Shannon divergence, on the other hand, measures the difference between two probability distributions based on their relative entropy or Kullback-Leibler divergence. Unlike cosine similarity, the Jensen-Shannon divergence takes into account the magnitude of the probability distributions (ie the total probability mass or density of the distribution), not just their direction.
We then rank the different topics according to their similarity measures, “1” representing the topic the most correlated with topics on inflation and price stability. The following table displays the correlation ranking of each topic for each period and measures.
proximities <- lda_proximity %>%
filter(similarity_measure %in% c("cosine", "jsd")) %>%
select(-similarity) %>%
pivot_wider(names_from = "similarity_measure",
values_from = all_of("rank"))
proximities %>%
mutate(period = case_match(period,
"Period_1" ~ "1998-2011",
"Period_2" ~ "2011-2021",
"Period_3" ~ "2021-2023")) %>%
datatable(class = "cell-border stripe",
rownames = FALSE) %>%
formatStyle(names(proximities)[4:5],
backgroundColor = styleEqual(c(1:10, 40:120), c(rep('lightblue', 10), rep("lightgray", 81))))In the article, we use the Jensen-Shannon divergence as we want to take into account the fact that some topics are more prevalent than others (and so have a higher magnitude). Indeed, the cosine measure is based solely on the cosine of the angle between the two vectors representing the topic distributions, and thus does not take into account the magnitudes of the vectors.
5 Information on all the topics
Here are gathered a series of information about each topic:
- The 15 ngrams with the highest beta and FREX values
- The 5 paragraphs the most associated to the topic for each period
- The 5 speeches the most associated to the topic for each period
for(i in (1:K)[-c(91,99)]){
topic_stats <- data_year_subset %>%
filter(topic == i)
################ Beginning of the template ######################
cat("## ", paste0("**Topic ", topic_stats$topic, "**: ", topic_stats$topic_name), "\n")
cat("###", "Describing Topics in general \n\n")
cat("The most common terms according to different indicators:\n\n")
print(kable(filter(lda_words, topic == i)) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed", full_width = F)))
cat("\n\n")
cat("###", "Describing Topics for the 3 periods \n\n")
cat("We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:\n\n")
print(kable(filter(top_speech_paragraphs_period, topic == i) %>% select(title_link, period, date, gamma, paragraphs)) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed", full_width = F), font_size = 12))
cat("\n\n")
cat("The most representative speeches:\n\n")
print(kable(filter(top_speech_period, topic == topic_stats$topic) %>% select(title_link, period, date, gamma_speech)) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed", full_width = F), font_size = 12))
cat("\n\n")
}5.1 Topic 1: model; curve; phillips; phillips curve; estimate
5.1.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | model | 1 | 0.1004713 | phillips | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 1 | curve | 2 | 0.0616441 | phillips curve | 2 | 0.9996495 |
| 1 | phillips | 3 | 0.0485457 | model | 3 | 0.9994741 |
| 1 | phillips curve | 4 | 0.0474932 | slope | 4 | 0.9989484 |
| 1 | estimate | 5 | 0.0245711 | dsge | 5 | 0.9985093 |
| 1 | slack | 6 | 0.0226999 | curve | 6 | 0.9984210 |
| 1 | dynamic | 7 | 0.0162677 | keynesian | 7 | 0.9983352 |
| 1 | relationship | 8 | 0.0149812 | economic slack | 8 | 0.9978968 |
| 1 | economic slack | 9 | 0.0128761 | dsge model | 9 | 0.9977196 |
| 1 | slope | 10 | 0.0120575 | specification | 10 | 0.9974565 |
| 1 | base | 11 | 0.0111219 | slack | 11 | 0.9962243 |
| 1 | variable | 12 | 0.0107710 | nairu | 12 | 0.9960541 |
| 1 | keynesian | 13 | 0.0091338 | flat | 13 | 0.9951813 |
| 1 | unemployment | 14 | 0.0088999 | relationship | 14 | 0.9946386 |
| 1 | structural | 15 | 0.0078473 | policy analysis | 15 | 0.9945592 |
5.1.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of the Phillips Curve | Period_1 | 2008-06-16 | 0.375 | indeed, the great inflation episode was associated with the breakdown of empirical phillips curves, as equations estimated over the previous, more stable period lost predictive power and had to be adjusted judgementally by forecasters in policy institutions. the shifting nature of the unemployment-inflation relationship around the time of the great inflation is clearly apparent even to the naked eye from the bottom-right panel of figure 1. whereas from the second half of the 19th century up until mid-1960s inflation and unemployment had systematically negatively co-moved in both the united kingdom and the united states, around the time of the great inflation they started to move upward in lockstep. as pointed out by lucas and sargent in a paper presented in 1978 at a conference organise… |
| Jürgen Stark: Delivering price stability - benefits and challenges | Period_1 | 2007-12-04 | 0.215 | long term inflation and economic performance empirically, the relationship between inflation and economic performance in the long run has been extensively studied. simplifying, one could argue that the famous phillips curve has been rotating in the minds (and charts) of macroeconomists in the last 35 years or so. it was positively sloped when i studied macroeconomics: a little bit more of inflation was supposed to bring a little bit more of real income as a permanent effect. then, it became vertical, as rational expectations advocates belied the samuelson-solow consensus model and drew attention onto a principle that had long been discovered and forgotten: monetary neutrality. it is futile for a central bank to manoeuvre inflation in the hope of systematically stimulating growth, as thi… |
| Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of the Phillips Curve | Period_1 | 2008-06-16 | 0.188 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.187 | such model and data uncertainty is clearly warranted. model uncertainty suggests that further analysis of the robustness of the effects of monetary policy actions across a variety of models would be valuable. recent research has shown that central banks should moderate the responsiveness of their policy decisions to real activity when underlying data are known to be subject to measurement error. after all, a strong policy response to mismeasured data will induce unnecessary fluctuations in the economy. in view of this, the weight given to the individual information variables should depend on how precisely those variables are measured. this is especially applicable to variables that are not directly observable, but which are relevant for policy formulation, such as the potential output g… |
| Jürgen Stark: Main challenges for monetary policy in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2008-03-31 | 0.170 | 5 galí and monacelli (2005) model a small open economy trading with an infinite number of other foreign economies. in the model’s phillips curve, they show that the more open the economy is and the more substitutable domestic goods are with regard to foreign goods, the lower the coefficient for the domestic output gap becomes. research conducted at the imf and the bis (imf (2006) and borio and filardo (2007)) finds supporting evidence for the hypothesis that the increase in international trade and production specialisation has increased the importance of global indicators of economic slack and inflation, relative to domestic indicators, in explaining domestic inflation in developed countries. ciccareli and mojon (2005) also argue that in a sample of oecd economies domestic inflation is … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2015-11-10 | 0.410 | over-predicting inflation. for the euro area, the evidence from several new papers points to a relative steepening recently, following the previous flattening, (see e.g. oinonen and paloviita (2014), riggi and venditti (2015) and foroni and porqueddu (2015)). this development is especially marked in those countries which experienced deeper and longer recessions and made greater efforts to reform their product and labour markets. estimating the same specifications of phillips curves over two samples, one stopping at 2012 q1 (when we started systematically over-predicting inflation) and the other covering the full sample ending in 2014 q4, one finds evidence of an increase in the slope estimate. indeed, regime-switching estimates, accounting for parameter change due to state-dependency on… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Past and future of the European Central Bank monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-05-11 | 0.371 | right fork in the road of the post-1975 evolution, features an approach developed by kydland, prescott and sargent, and more recently by galì and gertler and others. inflation depends on forward-looking expectations, and expectations respond rationally to actual and expected changes in monetary and fiscal policy. this two-way game has no room for supply shocks or inertia”. this second approach produces what is called the new keynesian phillips curve (nkpc) that basically focuses on the output gap and expectations and is a crucial part of the dsge models, where the interest rate is all-powerful to control demand and therefore inflation. gordon and others forged ahead with the first approach, adding variables representing supply shocks (as prices depend on demand and supply factors), iner… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2015-11-10 | 0.369 | the phillips curve as a vehicle to discuss inflation dynamics the current attention to the relationship between inflation and economic slack has led to an intense debate on the stability of the phillips curve and its power to explain the twin puzzle. an important consideration is that economic slack is a multidimensional concept that is not directly observable and choices must be made on how to estimate or measure it. the outcome is highly sensitive to the assumptions used for the decomposition of economic activity into trend and cycle. usual measures of slack can vary substantially across methods and variables included, although they tend to agree on the timing of peaks and troughs. the fact that economic activity is multidimensional suggests that there might be advantages in using mul… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2015-09-02 | 0.332 | further, the standard hybrid new keynesian phillips curve includes agents’ inflation expectations, which are also difficult to measure. recent work by coibion and gorodnichenko (2015) uses expectations from surveys, with some practical success. it highlights that the choice of the measure of inflation expectations is crucial in understanding inflation dynamics in the united states, advocating the use of surveys of household inflation expectations rather than those of professional forecasters. naturally, expectations from surveys or professional forecasters are not microfounded. more generally, nkpc has had many problems to predict inflation even when embedded in a dsge model. as king and watson (2012) highlight when using the labour income share or unit labour costs the models do not ca… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2015-09-02 | 0.316 | however, as policy makers we need more than just good inflation forecasts: we also need to understand the inflation process in order to better assess the role of monetary policy. we also need to be able to explain our reasoning to the public, as the management of expectations has become such an important monetary policy instrument. this is one more reason for continuing to use the phillips curve as a tool to discuss inflation dynamics. the current attention to the relationship between inflation and economic slack has led to an intense debate on the stability of the phillips curve and its power to explain the twin puzzle. empirical research, especially in the united states, shows that the slope of the phillips curve has varied over time, with a clear tendency to flatten over the years. f… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.299 | flattened considerably over recent decades, a finding that continues to generate substantial debate in academia and policy circles (chart 7). chart 7 change in the slope of the phillips curve (x-axis: log percentage points, y-axis: percentage points) us data: 1980-2000 us data: 2000-2020 6 6 4 oo 4 - * we qo =< : of ao 0 ° so rs pene) dus s 0 ae so er is log = c a. o is “0 5 g ke ee soak) fe) o s b {op o 4 = 6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 6 4 -2 0 2 4 6 wo 4 model: 1980-2000 model: 2000-2020 = 6 6 o 4 8 4 -2 c-88 “ohs9, gp o fso ; o -2 = bsi — = 4 se) i 4 -6 -6 -6 4 “2 0 2 4 6 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 output gap source: costain, j., nakov, a. and petit, b. (2021), “flattening of the phillips curve with state-dependent prices and wages”, the economic journal, july. note: the top panels show scatterplots of the… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.235 | macro evidence on the effects of policy rates one stream of the literature investigates the effects of policy rates using macro data, time-series econometric models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) models. a broad consensus has emerged about the aggregate effects of interest rate policy. the econometric models, mainly structural vector autoregressions, show that policy rate changes have significant effects on both inflation and economic activity. maximum effects occur with a lag, with the impact on inflation taking somewhat longer to materialise than the impact on the real economy.[1] furthermore, at least at times when inflation is not too far from the 2% target, the models indicate that the effect on inflation tends to be modest relative to the effect on the real econ… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.199 | digging deeper into the micro evidence since the golosov-lucas paper was published, economists have been studying numerous micro price datasets from different countries. researchers have been busy constructing models that can match various features of the micro data, including the average frequency and size of price changes. in 2018 the european system of central banks established prisma – the price-setting microdata analysis network – to collect and study various kinds of micro data, aiming to deepen our understanding of price-setting behaviour and inflation dynamics. today, peter karadi will present the findings from a research project undertaken as part of the prisma network. in the paper, peter and his co-authors raphael schoenle and jesse wursten set out to measure the selection ef… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.187 | early micro evidence on the effects of policy rates with the advent of more and more granular data, research shifted its focus to micro data on prices. researchers documented how individual firms set prices, aiming at building models that would be consistent with both the price-setting behaviour at the micro level and the effects of monetary policy in the macro data. meeting these two objectives simultaneously proved challenging. when economists studied the micro data underlying the consumer price index in the united states and other countries, they found that individual price changes are infrequent but typically large in absolute terms, in the order of 10%.[4] in their famous paper “menu costs and phillips curves”, mikhail golosov and robert lucas investigated the implications of this … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.175 |
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The most representative speeches:
5.2 Topic 2: global; globalisation; international; domestic; economy
5.2.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | global | 1 | 0.1291946 | globalisation | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 2 | globalisation | 2 | 0.0906577 | international | 2 | 0.9987727 |
| 2 | international | 3 | 0.0697889 | globalise | 3 | 0.9987723 |
| 2 | domestic | 4 | 0.0422625 | global | 4 | 0.9985084 |
| 2 | economy | 5 | 0.0276672 | imf | 5 | 0.9983348 |
| 2 | imf | 6 | 0.0176809 | domestic inflation | 6 | 0.9982902 |
| 2 | factor | 7 | 0.0156324 | global economic | 7 | 0.9978973 |
| 2 | trade | 8 | 0.0146082 | international monetary | 8 | 0.9977196 |
| 2 | affect | 9 | 0.0126877 | financial globalisation | 9 | 0.9975424 |
| 2 | change | 10 | 0.0110233 | global inflation | 10 | 0.9971054 |
| 2 | influence | 11 | 0.0106393 | international financial | 11 | 0.9969288 |
| 2 | global economic | 12 | 0.0103832 | global factor | 12 | 0.9967989 |
| 2 | good | 13 | 0.0093590 | domestic | 13 | 0.9961340 |
| 2 | globalise | 14 | 0.0092309 | spillover | 14 | 0.9960552 |
| 2 | spillover | 15 | 0.0091029 | capital flow | 15 | 0.9957894 |
5.2.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo: Globalisation, macroeconomic stability and monetary policy at a time of financial turmoil | Period_1 | 2008-09-09 | 0.261 |
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| Jean-Claude Trichet: The governance of globalisation | Period_1 | 2008-05-13 | 0.235 | conclusion the phenomenon of globalisation entails many important changes to the global macroeconomic, financial landscape. associated with this, it entails many policy challenges – both in terms of domestic macroeconomic policies and the international financial architecture. at the domestic level, a key challenge for monetary policy is to actively monitor changes in the inflation process, while continuing to solidly anchor inflation expectations. the strong relative price movements associated with globalisation make a firm focus on price stability is as essential as ever. at the same time, such a sound monetary policy framework can lay the foundations for fostering benign economic adjustment so that the euro area realises the many benefits associated with globalisation. of course, poli… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The governance of globalisation | Period_1 | 2008-05-13 | 0.214 | the governance of globalisation at the international level as i have already alluded, to ensure that the process of globalisation occurs in an orderly manner, the international financial architecture plays indeed a crucial role. it is the institutional foundations of the global economic and financial system, which deserve credit for making sure that the tremendous benefits stemming from the integration of national economies clearly outweigh the also existing challenges. while each global financial turbulence is different and has different triggers and repercussions – think for instance of the asian crisis of the late 1990s and the very significant global financial market correction of today –, such events have in common that they are really global. as such, they require, in addition to … |
| Jürgen Stark: Contribution to the session on “Implications for the conduct of monetary policy” | Period_1 | 2008-03-11 | 0.211 | john taylor has discussed a number of challenges to monetary policy-making in an era of globalisation. in my remarks, i will focus on the implications of globalisation specifically for monetary policy-making in the euro area. 1 globalisation may change the environment for monetary policy-making we all agree that globalisation offers great opportunities. it increases the scope for efficiency gains through specialisation since it allows economies to make better use of their comparative advantage in international production. this reduces production costs and expands the production frontier, generating gains which are passed on to consumers through lower prices for many goods. globalisation thus fosters economic prosperity and raises living standards. at the same time, the gains from global… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.210 | higher quality of life it brings about, with very similar words as those keynes used almost a century ago to describe the heydays of the “liberal international economic order” before world war i. 2 on the other hand, the sweeping and relentless demise of physical and man- made barriers to the mobility of goods and services, ideas and people, is criticised because it supposedly also does away with necessary protections for disadvantaged workers and households in poor and rich countries, the environment and cultural diversity. all these developments have put globalisation at the centre of international policy debates. the european union considers globalisation to be “one of the major challenges” it is confronted with and defines the phenomenon as “the increasing interdependence of the glo… |
| Mario Draghi: How central banks meet the challenge of low inflation | Period_2 | 2016-02-05 | 0.225 | 1 most empirical results that find ageing is disinflationary have focused on japan, as its transition from aging society to aged society is one of the fastest (see, for example, jong-won yoon, jinill kim & jungjin lee, 2014. “impact of demographic changes on inflation and the macroeconomy”, imf working papers 14/210, international monetary fund). however, a recent bis working paper by juselius and takats (2015) contradicts the prevailing view: looking at low-frequency correlations, they find that a larger share of young or old cohorts is associated with higher inflation, while a larger share of working-age cohorts is correlated with lower inflation. this highlights how difficult it is to quantify the impact of this structural factor on inflation. see mikael juselius & elod takats, 2015…. |
| Mario Draghi: The international dimension of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-29 | 0.198 | 1 inflation as a global phenomenon has been documented e.g. by m. ciccarelli and b. mojon (2010), “global inflation”, the review of economics and statistics, 92:524–535. measures of global economic slack are good predictors of national inflation in advanced countries, as shown empirically e.g. by c. borio and a. filardo (2007), “globalisation and inflation: new cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation” bis wp no. 227; and in new keynesian open economy models e.g. by r. clarida, j. gali, and m. gertler, (2002) “a simple framework for international monetary policy analysis,” journal of monetary economics 49: 879–904. 2 imf estimates. 3 see ecb (2015), “the impact of oil prices on euro area inflation”, box 3, annual report 2014. |
| Mario Draghi: The international dimension of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-29 | 0.193 | such spillovers are not necessarily all negative for the global economy. on the contrary, by securing economic and financial stability in their own jurisdictions, advanced economies also help stabilise other economies through trade and financial linkages. the empirical evidence suggests that the net spillover effect of the measures taken during the crisis has been positive, especially at times – such as after the lehman crash – when countries have faced common global shocks. 7 at the same time, monetary policy has inevitably created destabilising spillovers as well, especially when business cycles have been less aligned. the large exchange rates fluctuations between major currencies, and the pressures some emerging economies have experienced from capital flows, are testament to that. th… |
| Mario Draghi: Global and domestic inflation | Period_2 | 2015-12-08 | 0.176 | 1 inflation as a global phenomenon has been documented e.g. by m. ciccarelli and b. mojon (2010), “global inflation”, the review of economics and statistics, 92:524-535. measures of global economic slack are good predictors of national inflation in advanced countries, as shown empirically e.g. by c. borio and a. filardo (2007), “globalisation and inflation: new cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation” bis wp no. 227; and in new keynesian open economy models e.g. by r. clarida, j. gali, and m. gertler, (2002) “a simple framework for international monetary policy analysis,” journal of monetary economics 49: 879–904. |
| Mario Draghi: The international dimension of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-29 | 0.142 | others, on supporting private demand through more growth-friendly tax and regulatory policy, and of course through monetary policy. the relative stance of stabilisation policies will differ across countries depending on cyclical positions. but the sign of the effect on global demand needs to be positive. similarly, structural policies that aim at raising participation and productivity may take different forms in different places, but they need to achieve the same outcome, which is to increase long-term growth rates and raise equilibrium interest rates. 16 here fora such as the g-20 can play an essential role in bringing about the appropriate alignment of policies. it is key that what is agreed in those fora is translated in the concrete policy actions. the disappointing outcome of the g… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The globalisation of inflation | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.171 | 1 1. kamber, g. and wong, b. (2020), “global factors and trend inflation”, journal of international economics, vol. 122, january; bianchi, f. and civelli, a. (2015), “globalization and inflation: evidence from a time-varying var”, review of economic dynamics, vol. 18, no 2, april, pp. 406–433; mikolajun, i. and lodge, d. (2016), “advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors” , working paper series, no 1948, ecb, august; and attinasi, m.g. and balatti, m. (2021), “globalisation and its implications for inflation in advanced economies”, economic bulletin, issue 4, ecb. 2 2. ciccarelli, m. and mojon, b. (2010), “global inflation”, the review of economics and statistics, vol. 92, no 3, august, pp. 524–535; forbes, k.j. (2019), “has globalization changed the inflation process?” , b… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.126 | spillovers the deeply integrated nature of the global economy implies that our analysis needs to incorporate international monetary policy spillovers. for instance, changes in the interest rate locally affects domestic consumption and investment, which in turn affects the demand for imports from trading partners, and hence output abroad (“demand channel”). via the financial channel, changes in the interest rates of major central banks can propagate across borders via asset price spillovers to bond yields, corporate earnings expectations and financial risk premia. since the bulk of cross-border capital flows are denominated in us dollar, as the us dollar plays a dominant role, and as us monetary policy is a key driver of the global financial cycle, us interest rate changes have more pron… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.114 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.108 |
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| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.095 | the changing environment one of the most important macroeconomic stories of the past 30 years has been the rising interconnectedness of the global economy and its implications for global supply and demand. china’s entry into the global economy led to a massive increase in global labour supply. global supply chains became more unbundled and efficient, lowering inventory levels and reducing costs. and energy markets changed fundamentally as new producers emerged, notably us shale oil and gas, making global oil and gas supply significantly more elastic.[1] at the same time, globalisation allowed growth to become less beholden to swings in domestic demand, as countries could rotate demand towards the rest of the world when faced with domestic slumps. this proved especially valuable for euro… |
The most representative speeches:
5.3 Topic 3: dynamic; range; percent; macroeconomic; wide
5.3.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | dynamic | 1 | 0.0578222 | percent | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 3 | range | 2 | 0.0493111 | range | 2 | 0.9992111 |
| 3 | percent | 3 | 0.0386723 | wide range | 3 | 0.9989479 |
| 3 | macroeconomic | 4 | 0.0372538 | wide | 4 | 0.9988609 |
| 3 | wide | 5 | 0.0345940 | inflation dynamic | 5 | 0.9985981 |
| 3 | force | 6 | 0.0308704 | dynamic | 6 | 0.9985962 |
| 3 | inflation dynamic | 7 | 0.0218274 | force | 7 | 0.9979836 |
| 3 | reinforce | 8 | 0.0216501 | reinforce | 8 | 0.9978965 |
| 3 | focus | 9 | 0.0186357 | macroeconomic | 9 | 0.9968390 |
| 3 | assess | 10 | 0.0177492 | assess | 10 | 0.9967119 |
| 3 | contribution | 11 | 0.0177492 | mutually | 11 | 0.9964455 |
| 3 | wide range | 12 | 0.0168626 | bis | 12 | 0.9964062 |
| 3 | include | 13 | 0.0165080 | contribution | 13 | 0.9963602 |
| 3 | account | 14 | 0.0150895 | bis central | 14 | 0.9963533 |
| 3 | require | 15 | 0.0122524 | post | 15 | 0.9962764 |
5.3.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2004-12-06 | 0.120 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The euro area and its monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-09-11 | 0.093 | 7 see j.-c. trichet (2006), “activism and alertness in monetary policy,” lecture given at the conference on central banks in the 21st century, organised by the banco de espana (madrid, 8 june). i expounded the reasons for sluggish productivity growth in the euro area in a recent lecture. see j.-c. trichet (2007), “productivity in the euro area and monetary policy,” special lecture delivered at the 22nd annual congress of the european economic association (budapest, 27 august). 8 fresh evidence on the underlying factors explaining growth in the euro area and the us has become available in the so-called eu-klems growth and productivity accounts database, the first result of a two-year collaborative effort by researchers based on 16 institutions across the eu to produce long and internally… |
| Mr. Duisenberg elucidates the European System of Central Banks’ stability-oriented monetary policy strategy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 10 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-11-20 | 0.066 | there is a clear need for the governing council to look at a wide range of other economic and financial indicators. consequently, in parallel with the analysis of monetary growth in relation to the reference value, a broadly-based assessment of the outlook for price developments and the risks to price stability in the euro area will also be undertaken. this assessment will systematically analyse all the other information about the economic and financial situation, ensuring that the governing council is as well-informed as possible when making its monetary policy decisions. outside the escb, some commentators have labelled this broadly-based assessment an “inflation forecast”. failure to publish “the” inflation forecast is seen by some as contrary to the principle of transparency. i am a… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Charting a new global landscape ¿ the growing impact of emerging markets on the world economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-04 | 0.065 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.058 | third, the recent financial crisis has confirmed that a central bank’s inability to identify in real time the precise mechanisms through which financial imbalances evolve and to anticipate the exact timing of their unwinding does not mean it is unable to identify the build-up of imbalances. in the run up to the crisis several policy makers did identify the under-pricing of risk as a major source of concern. in this context, let me mention that recent research – including research conducted at the ecb – has reviewed more systematically the implications for monetary policy of a more explicit role for financial factors in macroeconomic models. 14 this stream of research is still under development, but it does account for an endogenous interaction between macroeconomic conditions and the de… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2015-09-02 | 0.105 | introduction it is a great pleasure to participate in this policy panel with such distinguished fellow participants. in my remarks today i will discuss the general difficulties in dealing with inflation dynamics, but i will concentrate on the recent developments in euro area inflation and discuss their implications for monetary policy. understanding inflation dynamics has become particularly important in view of the low inflation regime now prevailing and because the traditional relationship between slack in the economy and inflation seems to have weakened significantly in some countries. |
| Philip R Lane: Interview in the Financial Times | Period_2 | 2020-02-03 | 0.099 | yes. i also think we should revisit the issue of energy prices. historically, i think the price of energy has always been very important in the overall dynamic. if the world does adopt more transition-friendly policies that means that the consumer price of energy trends upwards. that could be a force that contributes to inflation dynamics. the narrative of ‘everything inevitably low for longer’ – there is a lot of weight to that –, but i do not put all my probability on it. you should watch out for other forces. 9/9 |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the euro area problem | Period_2 | 2015-11-25 | 0.095 | the current economic situation in the euro area the euro area challenges are part of a predicament shared by other advanced economies: decades of declining economic and productivity growth rates, prolonged periods of low inflation and an untamed financial sector fuelling asset price booms. this constitutes a very challenging situation that cannot be solved by one policy area alone, be it monetary policy or any other. furthermore, issues in the euro area are more acute than in the case of other advanced economies. since 2008, the euro area has experienced a deep recession, a quickly interrupted recovery, another long, mild recession, and finally a slow recovery. euro area gdp per capita at the end of this year is expected to be 1.6 percent below what it was seven years ago, at the end of… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in De Tijd | Period_2 | 2017-09-20 | 0.093 | financed by banks rather than through financial markets. and if the creditors and debtors come from different countries too, you also have a lot of political tensions to deal with as well. in my view people don’t realise how serious the crisis was. i don’t think they realise that the world would have looked totally different – and dramatically worse – if central banks hadn’t stepped in so forcefully. the recent strengthening of the euro is making it even more difficult. our communication about the exchange rate is very careful. the governing council of the ecb has assessed that recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability. in the meantime critic… |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.083 | [2] the june eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections expected average annual output to decline by 8.7 percent in 2020 but expand by 5.2 percent in 2021 and a further 3.3 percent in 2022. the incoming data have been broadly in line with our expectations: the latest september ecb staff macroeconomic projections see an output decline of 8.0 percent in 2020 and expansions of 5.0 percent in 2021 and 3.2 percent in 2022. [3] see also dossche, m. and zlatanos, s. (2020), “covid-19 and the increase in household savings: precautionary or forced?”, economic bulletin, issue 6, ecb. |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.134 | and we will not ignore all this. to the contrary. we acknowledge that we cannot deliver on our mandate if we assume a status quo in which the world will not transition as the baseline scenario for the future. and by rejecting that status quo as the baseline, we are becoming a force that contributes to the transition. and we will continue to be just that: a force that contributes to the transition. within our mandate. and in the pursuit of our mandate. thank you very much for your attention. 3/3 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.118 | to counter the sharp rise in energy prices, many governments adopted expensive and broad-based support measures for households and firms. but these measures risk diluting relative price signals that are crucial to incentivise energy saving and foster green investment. instead, government support should be temporary and targeted towards vulnerable households and firms. this would also help to limit risks to fiscal sustainability. fiscal policy and monetary policy need to work hand in hand. in view of the normalisation of monetary policy, it is essential to achieve a good balance between supporting energy security and ensuring price stability, while keeping the green transition on track. 4/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.112 | still, these adjustment processes (the absorption of higher energy costs across all sectors of the economy, the impact of bottlenecks and the post-pandemic re-establishment of those sectors most affected by the pandemic) may still have some distance to run, as is also suggested by indicators of rising costs in the earlier stages of production before goods and services reach consumers. in addition, the process of adjustment in nominal wages adds a further dimension to near-inflation dynamics, both due to the overall recovery in the labour market and the adverse impact of unexpected inflation over recent months on real wages. furthermore, even after the adjustment to these shocks has been completed, it is important to assess whether this phase of high inflation might permanently re-set in… |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.109 | the carbon transition constitutes an important structural force that will be a primary contributor to macroeconomic dynamics in this decade and in the decades to come. the net impact of the carbon transition on inflation dynamics will depend on the exact transition path that emerges and the time horizon considered. in particular, the mechanical impact of the carbon transition on energy prices (which, in turn, will depend on the evolving mix between fossil fuels and renewables in energy production) must be assessed jointly with the implications of a sustained phase of transition-focused corporate, household and public investment. in particular, the impact on inflation dynamics must take |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.103 | this inflation outlook forms the context for the setting of monetary policy. last week’s decision is closely linked to our monetary policy strategy, which stipulates that the appropriate monetary policy response to a deviation of inflation from the symmetric two per cent target is context-specific and depends on the origin, magnitude and persistence of the deviation. in the context of a long projected period with inflation far above target, the net upside risks to inflation and taking into account that the current setting of the key policy rates is still highly accommodative, it was appropriate to take a major step that frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly-accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will support a timely return of inflation to our target. mor… |
The most representative speeches:
5.4 Topic 4: purchase; asset; asset purchase; programme; purchase programme
5.4.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | purchase | 1 | 0.1687192 | asset purchase | 1 | 0.9996496 |
| 4 | asset | 2 | 0.1074394 | purchase programme | 2 | 0.9996494 |
| 4 | asset purchase | 3 | 0.0837264 | asset purchase programme | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 4 | programme | 4 | 0.0784569 | purchase | 4 | 0.9992986 |
| 4 | purchase programme | 5 | 0.0487944 | programme | 5 | 0.9988607 |
| 4 | asset purchase programme | 6 | 0.0290760 | app | 6 | 0.9986858 |
| 4 | app | 7 | 0.0279711 | cover bond | 7 | 0.9984225 |
| 4 | security | 8 | 0.0198118 | asset | 8 | 0.9976297 |
| 4 | ease | 9 | 0.0150522 | scale asset | 9 | 0.9975431 |
| 4 | expand | 10 | 0.0123325 | programme app | 10 | 0.9972837 |
| 4 | scale | 11 | 0.0110576 | ab | 11 | 0.9972395 |
| 4 | cover | 12 | 0.0092727 | scale asset purchase | 12 | 0.9971494 |
| 4 | bond | 13 | 0.0091027 | purchase programme app | 13 | 0.9969771 |
| 4 | cover bond | 14 | 0.0082528 | expand asset purchase | 14 | 0.9966638 |
| 4 | launch | 15 | 0.0079978 | quantitative ease | 15 | 0.9966266 |
5.4.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Central banking after the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-02-23 | 0.078 | adjustments by firms and households, set disincentives to governments for their efforts to consolidate public finances. 7 the ecb (like other central banks) faces a difficult balancing act between doing what is necessary to maintain a properly functioning monetary policy transmission mechanism and doing too much for too long, thus reducing incentives for market participants to make markets work as they should. in japan, the combination of zero interest rates and quantitative easing, while successfully containing liquidity problems of financial institutions, have had some detrimental effect on the intermediary function of the money market and on corporate bond issuance. 8 in our case, we saw that transaction volumes in the short term (eonia) money market increased and eonia rates were on… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Short address in honour of Axel Weber | Period_1 | 2011-05-03 | 0.051 | dimensions, the eurosystem benefited enormously from the bundesbank’s dedication to our common cause, and on both dimensions the bundesbank contribution found in axel its voice. the first task is financial supervision, the importance of which cannot be underestimated. for one thing, the information gathered in supervision has been particularly useful in the preparation of monetary policy decisions during the financial crisis. this has been especially true when and since the governing council of the ecb decided to introduce non-standard monetary policy measures to ensure the proper transmission of the monetary policy stance. the information also helps the governing council of the ecb assess the interconnectedness of national financial systems and vulnerabilities threatening financial sta… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.041 | additional measures to support the asset side of banks’ balance sheets it may be necessary, however, in order to safeguard banking sector stability and restore an adequate flow of credit to the economy,, that these measures, which were aimed at supporting the liability side of banks’ balance sheets be complemented in certain cases by additional measures designed to support the asset side. various approaches have been considered, ranging notably from (i) asset removal schemes involving the removal of the “problem” assets from the balance sheets, through direct government purchases or by transferring them to “bad banks” or asset management vehicles; to (ii) asset insurance schemes that limit the valuation losses of impaired assets by invoking a government guarantee while keeping them on t… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-10-01 | 0.041 | the assessment of low inflationary pressures over the medium term is also confirmed by our monetary analysis. in this context, we note in particular that money and credit expansion continues to decelerate. the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate m3 declined to 2.5% in august, the lowest reading since the launch of the euro. as regards lending to the private sector, the annual growth rate of loans virtually stalled in august (at 0.1%). to a large extent, this development reflects the fall in production and trade and the ongoing uncertainty regarding the business outlook which has affected demand for financing. given that the pick-up in loans to enterprises typically lags the recovery in economic activity, further weak developments in loans to enterprises in the coming mont… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Real and nominal convergence ¿ policy challenges | Period_1 | 2007-11-21 | 0.037 | 20 ireland is ranked 8th and portugal 37th in the world bank’s ease of doing business index, which ranks economies from 1 to 178. the index is calculated as the ranking on the simple average of country percentile rankings on each of ten topics covered in doing business 2008. see http://www.doingbusiness.org/economyrankings/. |
| Mario Draghi: President’s address at the 16th ECB and its Watchers Conference | Period_2 | 2015-03-13 | 0.310 | believe that as our balance sheet grows more substantially under the expanded asset purchase programme, it will support a rebound of these measures. second, our policy announcement was largely anticipated. on 1 january 2015, 60% of surveyed experts attached a 65% or higher probability that we would announce a public sector securities purchase programme at our january meeting. and, according to various surveys, expectations were already quite high in autumn last year. these anticipation effects show up in the financial data. according to estimates, the impact of the asset purchase programme has accounted for most of the fall in euro area long-term sovereign yields since august last year. the same applies for movements in other financial markets metrics, such as the fall in long-term corp… |
| Mario Draghi: President’s address at the 16th ECB and its Watchers Conference | Period_2 | 2015-03-13 | 0.289 | believe that as our balance sheet grows more substantially under the expanded asset purchase programme, it will support a rebound of these measures. second, our policy announcement was largely anticipated. on 1 january 2015, 60% of surveyed experts attached a 65% or higher probability that we would announce a public sector securities purchase programme at our january meeting. and, according to various surveys, expectations were already quite high in autumn last year. these anticipation effects show up in the financial data. according to estimates, the impact of the asset purchase programme has accounted for most of the fall in euro area long-term sovereign yields since august last year. the same applies for movements in other financial markets metrics, such as the fall in long-term corp… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.256 | 30 see, for example, matikainen, s., e. campiglio and d. zenghelis (2017), “the climate impact of quantitative easing”, policy paper, grantham research institute on climate change and the environment, london school of economics and political science. 31 for details of the corporate sector purchase programme, see ecb (2017), “the ecb’s corporate sector purchase programme: its implementation and impact”, economic bulletin, issue 4, p. 40–45. 32 see ecb (2018), “purchases of green bonds under the eurosystem’s asset purchase programme”, economic bulletin, issue 7. 9/9 |
| Mario Draghi: President’s address at the 16th ECB and its Watchers Conference | Period_2 | 2015-03-13 | 0.251 | anticipation effects, the overall impact of our programme on bond yields was comparable in size to that observed in other jurisdictions such as the us and the uk. conditions also differ because financial structures differ. in the euro area, corporate debt financing mainly takes place via banks, as opposed to capital markets in the united states. there is, however, no reason, once the transmission channel is not impaired by banks’ poor balance sheets, why this difference should impede the effectiveness of a broad-based asset purchase programme that works through a multitude of channels. the programmes of both the bank of england and the bank of japan were effective and the respective economies are almost as bank-based as the euro area. one criticism is that we should have implemented our… |
| Mario Draghi: Introductory remarks at the EP’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee | Period_2 | 2014-09-23 | 0.243 | features and risk management of the new programmes is the market for abs, in particular, sufficiently ample to allow sizeable purchases? our purchases will include a fairly wide range of simple and transparent abs collateralised by loans to the real economy. the total stock of eligible securities which is currently outstanding – held in investors’ portfolios or retained by the originating banks – is already sizeable. we are confident that it will grow as a result of our presence in the market. over time, as our purchases contribute to a normalisation in trading conditions, secondary market and issuance activity will expand in those segments that are currently inactive. as the experience of other central banks that have engaged in outright purchases of structured products can demonstrate… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.212 | the forward guidance provided by the ecb on asset purchases and interest rates reflects the instrument hierarchy outlined in the strategy review. in relation to net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme (app), the forward guidance is that these will be maintained for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of policy rates and that these are expected to end shortly before the key ecb interest rates are raised. this forward guidance clearly expresses that net asset purchases are designed to supplement the primary role of the set of policy rates (in recognition of the limitations associated with the effective lower bound) but that net asset purchases would cease if the inflation environment no longer required the accommodative impact of policy rates to be re… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.175 | monetary policy in recent years, the monetary stance of the ecb has been determined by a combination of policy measures: the low level of the key policy rates, rate forward guidance, asset purchases and targeted lending operations. the period of very low interest rates for banks in the targeted lending programme (tltro iii) is scheduled to end next month. moreover, as shown in chart 13, there has been a very substantial decline in the rate of asset purchases in recent months and the governing council expects to end net purchases under the asset purchase programme (app) in the third quarter. |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.169 | various combinations of tools could be used to achieve the desired policy stance. for instance, if we bring net purchases to an end but continue to reinvest the stock of assets purchased, our balance sheet will keep supporting the economy through what is known as the “stock effect”[8], but it will no longer provide additional accommodation. in fact, for technical reasons, the degree of accommodation it provides is likely to decrease over the coming years.[9] so the appropriate stance could in principle involve maintaining a constant stock of assets purchased under our asset purchase programme (app) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (pepp). at the same time, we would be using interest rates to adjust the degree of policy accommodation – so long as this combination of tools remain… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Asset purchases – from crisis to recovery | Period_3 | 2021-09-23 | 0.160 | interest rates: channels and implications for policy”, nber working paper, no 17555; andrade, p. et al. (2016), “the ecb’s asset purchase programme: an early assessment”, working paper series, no 1956, ecb; vayanos, d. and vila, j.-l. (2021), “a preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates”, econometrica, vol. 89(1), pp. 77-112; and woodford, m. (2012), “methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound”, proceedings - economic policy symposium - jackson hole, federal reserve bank of kansas city, pp. 185-288. 2 see also schnabel, i. (2020), “the ecb’s response to the covid-19 pandemic”, remarks at a 24-hour global webinar co-organised by the safe policy center on “the covid-19 crisis and its aftermath: corporate governance implications and policy challe… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Asset purchases – from crisis to recovery | Period_3 | 2021-09-23 | 0.151 | function and has thereby helped anchor long-term rates at current low levels by reducing the uncertainty around the future course of monetary policy. in the early stages of a recovery, however, forward guidance cannot fully substitute for asset purchases. therefore, forward guidance and asset purchases should be thought of as both substitutes and complements. they are substitutes in the sense that the main instrument to stabilise long-term yields at levels consistent with the inflation outlook gradually shifts from asset purchases to forward guidance, or from a compression of the term premium to managing the expected future path of short-term interest rates. they are complements in the sense that asset purchases can reinforce forward guidance. they can serve as a powerful commitment dev… |
The most representative speeches:
5.5 Topic 5: good; time; question; lot; discussion
5.5.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | good | 1 | 0.0747777 | lot | 1 | 0.9993867 |
| 5 | time | 2 | 0.0298943 | qe | 2 | 0.9982473 |
| 5 | question | 3 | 0.0253339 | happen | 3 | 0.9982470 |
| 5 | lot | 4 | 0.0234138 | bite | 4 | 0.9978080 |
| 5 | discussion | 5 | 0.0230538 | eurozone | 5 | 0.9978056 |
| 5 | happen | 6 | 0.0194535 | zone | 6 | 0.9974528 |
| 5 | people | 7 | 0.0182534 | discussion | 7 | 0.9971920 |
| 5 | decision | 8 | 0.0162132 | talk | 8 | 0.9971084 |
| 5 | europe | 9 | 0.0152532 | hope | 9 | 0.9966253 |
| 5 | matter | 10 | 0.0147731 | matter | 10 | 0.9964038 |
| 5 | economy | 11 | 0.0141731 | moment | 11 | 0.9963203 |
| 5 | start | 12 | 0.0124929 | read | 12 | 0.9962719 |
| 5 | understand | 13 | 0.0123729 | euro zone | 13 | 0.9961328 |
| 5 | talk | 14 | 0.0114129 | basically | 14 | 0.9959629 |
| 5 | qe | 15 | 0.0110528 | remember | 15 | 0.9959214 |
5.5.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.143 | mr. duisenberg, i just want to ask if you could elaborate a little bit on the convincing structural reforms that you said you would like to see from euro zone governments and also if you feel that by cutting the rates in such a large step that you actually reduce the pressure on these governments to make these reforms? duisenberg: we hope that the contrary will emerge over time. convincing structural reforms relate to the following: we, and most other observers, are very convinced that the phenomenon of an unacceptably high rate of unemployment across the euro area, but particularly in the larger countries in the euro area, is due to structural factors and to inflexibility in markets for labour and in markets for goods and services and that monetary policy is neither the cause of that s… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.111 | question (translation): mr. duisenberg, this interest rate move has turned out to be unexpectedly large. do you believe that you are now at the limit which you can justify in terms of stability policy and how long will this interest rate remain in place if economic activity in the euro zone does indeed pick up in the second half of the year? duisenberg: this is something we have, of course, considered in depth. we wanted the move to be as convincing as possible and we were afraid that a smaller move would only have led to further expectations for the future, that this would only be a first step in a series. we have by all means possible tried to avoid that impression. in very parochial words, i am inclined to say - and i cannot say “do not quote me” here, i realise that - but i am incli… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.076 | europe. in december, although i cannot quote you directly, you stated, much in the same way as today, that following the cut in interest rates the situation with regard to interest rates in europe would be settled. it is now the beginning of april and we see obviously a further cut in interest rates. is there not the danger, mr. duisenberg, that this process is about to begin again and that, after a certain period, owing to a lack of willingness in europe and in germany, in particular, to bring about structural reforms, the whole rigmarole will begin once more and you will be forced, yet again, to cut interest rates? duisenberg: well, we do not see that danger arising from the level which we now have reached. we hope that our call - as i expressed it today - to governments to pursue a r… |
| Lucas Papademos: The adoption of the euro and economic performance in Monetary Union | Period_1 | 2007-11-28 | 0.075 |
|
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.073 | transcript of the questions asked and the answers given by dr. willem f. duisenberg, president of the ecb, and christian noyer, vice-president of the ecb i would be very interested if you had anything to say about the exchange rate of the euro, if the central bankers of europe seem comfortable with it. it seems that the strategy of the ecb is now, in light of today’s actions, a double strategy to re-invigorate the european economy. on the one hand, you got the exports boosted by the euro and, on the other hand, you got an interest rate cut to lubricate the economy as well. duisenberg: first of all, as far as the exchange rate of the euro is concerned, i always like to take a slightly longer term perspective than is normally done in articles and considerations about it. i would like to p… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Bloomberg TV | Period_2 | 2017-06-21 | 0.403 | benoît cœuré: interview with bloomberg tv interview with mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, and bloomberg tv, conducted by ms francine lacqua on 12 june 2017. * * * benoît cœuré, thank you so much for speaking to bloomberg tv. now, the ecb seems to be in a rush to exit this accommodative stance. how dangerous is lower for longer? thank you for inviting me. basically the thrust of what the governing council decided last week is to acknowledge the improving economic circumstances, to translate it into a revised forward guidance, because we have to adapt to economic reality, but also to give a sense of patience when it comes to rates being low: we are still not seeing inflation where we would like it to be; we’re still not seeing the criteria that … |
| Philip R Lane: Interview with Sky TG24 | Period_2 | 2019-11-27 | 0.381 | riflessione che metta insieme l’esperienza di questi anni e guardi al futuro tenendo conto anche di queste obiezioni sui tassi negativi, sull’eccesso di liquidità. mi domando se c’è in programma di cominciare a pensare a una riflessione strategica. philip lane: i think it’s important to recognise that already the ecb has changed quite a bit, essentially from 2014 onwards. the ecb i think surprised many commentators by being so aggressive to tackle low inflation. the ecb has launched the sovereign bond programme. it has launched targeted lending, many innovations. even this year, in the summertime we clarified that the inflation rate of 1.6 is too low, so the discussion now is much more precise. we do not find it acceptable to have inflation around 1.6. so 1.6 is not close to 2. that is … |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with CNBC | Period_2 | 2017-01-24 | 0.288 | no, we haven’t really-, we haven’t discussed the shape, the other modalities of tapering. that discussion will come, it’s not coming yet. but do you worry, given the environment in europe that you’re literally just going to have to keep up with the stimulus, that you’re not going to be able to taper, as you’re talking about? one strategist told me this week that we’re going to see negative rates for two to three years in europe. i mean, that’s a real problem. we’ll be able to taper when we have to taper. we still don’t have to taper. so we’ve got a lot of political risk, as well, in europe this year. the president of the eurogroup said to me yesterday he worries about political paralysis, politicians afraid of voters and afraid of markets. that’s a problem. it is a risk, it is a risk fo… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Bloomberg TV | Period_2 | 2017-06-21 | 0.271 | stock of the progress that will support an improved path for inflation, and that’s a discussion that we’ll have again and again. so one lesson of what we’ve decided last week, is that the governing council wants to keep our forward guidance aligned with reality, and that’s going to continue. you’re one of the brightest minds when it comes to academic economics. why is inflation so low? is it structural, or is it just that we may be counting things differently? no, i don’t think it’s that much about the statistics. that may play a role, but it’s a lot about the changing structures of the labour market, in particular. this is a recovery which is jobs-rich. a lot of jobs have been created and are being created in the eurozone economy, but it’s a different kind of jobs. a lot of them are on… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-03-14 | 0.243 | now, going back to your first question, first of all i don’t think mr coeuré said flows don’t matter. or that the stock matters a lot more… draghi: okay, but you see how it makes a big difference whether they matter or they matter slightly less than stocks. the first time that a reference to stock was made was at the end of 2015 in a press conference i had where there was, i remember, a vast disappointment about the measures that the governing council had just decided and i pointed out that even though the measures were probably not fulfilling your expectations, we still had the stocks that were going to go up over the oncoming period of time. at that time, markets paid no attention whatsoever to stocks. now attention is on stocks. now, the reason is not that there is actually more than… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-10-28 | 0.126 | monetary policy decisions, but inflation took a lot of our time, and it takes quite a bit of the space of the monetary policy statement that you have in front of you. i would, by the way, add that our analysis certainly does not support that the conditions of our forward guidance are satisfied at the time of lift-off, as expected by markets, nor any time soon thereafter. so you asked me about this market expectations regarding lift-offs, and we look at all of that, but we really very deeply looked and tested our analysis of the drivers of inflation, and we are confident that our anticipation and our analysis is actually correct. president lagarde, you and many of your colleagues have pushed back against the idea that you need to tighten policy in response to the inflation spike that we’… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-10-28 | 0.119 | currently pushing up inflation. while inflation will take longer to decline than previously expected, we expect these factors to ease in the course of next year. we continue to foresee inflation in the medium term remaining below our two per cent target. our policy measures, including our revised forward guidance on the key ecb interest rates, are crucial to helping the economy shift to a sustained recovery and, ultimately, to bringing inflation over the medium term to our target. we are now ready to take your questions. *** president lagarde, thank you very much for taking my questions. i was wondering, because the markets were – well, everybody was anticipating that this meeting was all about inflation, so what have you been discussing, and what was on top of your agenda? was there at… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.113 | that is pretty precise as a commitment, but it is also a factor of how the situation evolves. so, if the medium-term outlook persists as we see it now, or even deteriorates – which of course we don’t wish, but it could happen – then obviously the increment will be higher than 25 [basis points]. and then we go further because we take a third step along that journey to indicate what we will do beyond september, which is also the anticipation that further rate hikes will be necessary on the basis of the data that we collect. just to make that perfectly clear, following up on your last answer: does that mean that if the inflation outlook is not cut back down to 2% that we will see a 50 basis points increase in september? you said that you wanted to increase the rates by september; does that… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.113 | money it receives could be interrupted by this political crisis, so also threatening the growth outlook in the whole euro zone? my second question. very often in the last decade at least, the rises of rates on government bonds were caused by political crises. so if i’m not wrong, you mentioned the four criteria, and italy would meet these criteria at this moment. but this is, of course, a crisis which is caused by a political reason, by a political cause, a government crisis, self-inflicted by italy. would you think that this could be considered as an unwarranted rise of rates on the government bonds if it went on? the spread is already rising this morning. let me just remind you that the ecb does not take a stance on political matters. political matters are for the democratic process o… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.090 | my second question is on financial stability because you mentioned it; you mentioned that banks will be facing credit risks increased due to tighter financing conditions. how concerned are you about financial stability in a war situation? i have to tell you that i’m concerned about the war, full stop. but your question goes further than that, of course. the financial stability side of the question, i will defer to my esteemed colleague, friend and vice president de guindos. the first one: yes, we are going to pay a lot of attention to data and we are considering data dependency as one of the key four principles according to which we will operate. obviously the quarterly projections that we produce are very rich, inform our decisions best, but we cannot be un-attentive to developments an… |
The most representative speeches:
5.6 Topic 6: measure; standard; policy measure; monetary policy measure; impact
5.6.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | measure | 1 | 0.2685666 | policy measure | 1 | 0.9995619 |
| 6 | standard | 2 | 0.0860239 | standard measure | 2 | 0.9995617 |
| 6 | policy measure | 3 | 0.0715573 | standard | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 6 | monetary policy measure | 4 | 0.0514355 | monetary policy measure | 4 | 0.9993867 |
| 6 | impact | 5 | 0.0281573 | standard monetary policy | 5 | 0.9992988 |
| 6 | standard measure | 6 | 0.0280258 | measure | 6 | 0.9992986 |
| 6 | support | 7 | 0.0267107 | standard monetary | 7 | 0.9991236 |
| 6 | standard monetary policy | 8 | 0.0172416 | package | 8 | 0.9974154 |
| 6 | standard monetary | 9 | 0.0164525 | adopt | 9 | 0.9972834 |
| 6 | financial | 10 | 0.0163210 | implement | 10 | 0.9969770 |
| 6 | effective | 11 | 0.0161895 | standard policy | 11 | 0.9969735 |
| 6 | adopt | 12 | 0.0135592 | measure aim | 12 | 0.9965783 |
| 6 | provide | 13 | 0.0126386 | financial condition | 13 | 0.9964079 |
| 6 | ease | 14 | 0.0123756 | effective | 14 | 0.9964045 |
| 6 | implement | 15 | 0.0123756 | counterfactual | 15 | 0.9963612 |
5.6.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: The global financial crisis and the role of central banking | Period_1 | 2011-04-13 | 0.145 | saw no merit in a central bank’s ex ante intervention to stem asset price developments, arguing that the policy interest rate was too blunt a tool to contain potential bubbles. 2. central bank response to the crisis and “the new normal” the central bank response to the crisis, by any metric, has been unprecedented. when tensions in the interbank market emerged in the euro area and elsewhere in august 2007, the ecb reacted swiftly by providing de facto unlimited overnight liquidity to limit euro area banks’ liquidity risk. as the tensions morphed into a large-scale crisis of confidence in october 2008, the ecb responded with a mix of standard and non-standard monetary policy actions to foster financing conditions and enhance its credit support to the euro area economy, all with a view to… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.143 | financial system, and support the flow of credit necessary for recovery.” 3 in the euro area, as i previously noted, the ecb has already taken non-standard measures in the past by changing aspects of its operational framework to provide unlimited liquidity to financial institutions at a fixed interest rate against an expanded list of collateral. are these measures sufficient? or are additional measures necessary to secure price stability and preserve financial stability under the current circumstances? let me make three pertinent points: • first, the purpose of such measures is to improve the functioning of markets and the transmission of monetary policy when these are impaired by exceptionally high uncertainty and elevated risk perception. 4 clearly, the dysfunctioning of markets becau… |
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.130 | fiscal policy measures let me now turn to the fiscal policy reaction to the economic crisis. fiscal authorities in the euro area have demonstrated their willingness and capacity to act rapidly and in a coordinated manner in exceptional circumstances. it is important to distinguish between measures intended to support the banking sector and fiscal policy measures aimed at stimulating demand. |
| Jürgen Stark: The ECB’s monetary policy - preserving price stability in times of financial distress | Period_1 | 2009-09-08 | 0.121 | the phasing-out of non-standard measures when we consider the phasing-out of the non-standard measures, it is important to keep in mind why they were introduced in the first place. the financial turmoil caused disruption on the money markets, in particular after the collapse of lehman brothers last autumn. because the changes in our key policy rates affect the broader economy initially via money markets, we had to take a number of steps to ensure that our policy changes were transmitted properly to the rest of the economy. overall, we refer to the set of non-standard measures which we employed as our policy of “enhanced credit support”. let me first take stock of the effectiveness of our non-standard measures so far. overall, it is difficult to separate the effects of the ecb’s measures… |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.108 | central bank measures aimed at easing credit conditions have not been met with undivided enthusiasm. commentators have worried about a host of issues. will the expansion of central bank balance sheets ultimately lead to inflation? as central banks are seen as switching attention from implementing monetary policy by steering short-term interest rates to targeting the composition and size of their balance sheets, have they lost their instrument? have they become intransparent and unpredictable? with the measures put in place, how are central banks going to preserve their financial and political independence which has been so hard to earn? under what conditions and when are central banks going to unwind these measures? i can assure you, we have not lost sight of the principles that have su… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.170 | of the economy and of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, we must intervene to restore our capacity to ensure price stability over the medium term. the ecb interventions during the crisis have therefore been entirely consistent with the principles of our monetary policy strategy and its medium-term orientation. the provision of liquidity to prevent a collapse of sound financial institutions during a liquidity crisis is also consistent with the broader escb’s responsibility to contribute to financial stability. this is in line with the provisions in the treaty, which gives the escb the competence, without prejudice to the primary objective of price stability and to the ecb independence, to support the general policies of the european union and notably to contribute to the smooth … |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy response to disinflationary pressures | Period_2 | 2016-04-08 | 0.143 | impact on financial conditions how do we know that these positive effects of our policy package are indeed occurring and that they are sufficiently powerful to achieve the desired outcomes? in terms of financial conditions, the evidence so far suggests that the impact of our policy has been substantial. since june 2014, we have seen a broad-based easing in money market conditions, long- term government bond yields, corporate and bank bond yields, bank lending rates to firms and households, and the growth of money and credit. using a number of econometric techniques, we find that without our policy measures, financial conditions would be considerably tighter today. events studies conducted by ecb staff give evidence about the central role of our policy package in the broader easing of fi… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.140 | price stability of the turbulent gyrations in financial markets’ sentiment led central banks – including the ecb – to bring interest rates down to unprecedented levels and to engage in a number of non-standard monetary policy measures. when entering these “uncharted waters” it was and very much remains of paramount importance for the central bank’s measures to be effective that market participants never doubt about their consistency with the overall policy framework. it is precisely because measures were taken in such consistency and in full independence that market participants have never come to doubt the ecb commitment to maintain price stability over the medium-term. ultimately, independence reinforces credibility, maximising the effectiveness of the measures implemented during the … |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy response to disinflationary pressures | Period_2 | 2016-04-08 | 0.137 | transmission channels of the credit easing package our decision to respond to emerging shocks by rescaling our existing measures – rather than adopting new ones – has hinged on our confidence that those measures are effective in lifting inflation back towards our objective. this is based on two assumptions about the monetary transmission process: first, that our policy package has led to improved financial and borrowing conditions; and second, that improved financial and borrowing conditions have led and will lead to higher real activity, reduced economic slack and upward pressure on inflation. how justified are we in making these assumptions? in principle, the mechanisms through which our policy measures should boost the economy are clear. they are designed to work as a package, easing… |
| Mario Draghi: Delivering a symmetric mandate with asymmetric tools - monetary policy in a context of low interest rates | Period_2 | 2016-06-08 | 0.133 | monetary policy and the economic recovery in the two years since our policy package was launched, we have seen the effects of these measures in practice. events studies conducted by ecb staff find that our measures have had a major impact on long-term sovereign bonds, and spillovers to yields of other asset classes have been significant, too, especially for euro area financial and non-financial corporate bonds. 5 our analysis also finds that our policy package has had a substantial direct effect on bank lending 5 for more on the methodology behind these estimations see ecb (2015), “the transmission of the ecb’s recent non-standard monetary policy measures”, box 2, economic bulletin, issue 7/2015 |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.094 | lending rate to non-financial corporations and the intermediation wedge ecb (mir statistics) and bloomberg. notes: the intermediation wedge is the distance from the base rate (three-year ois) to the realised lending rate, as measured by the observed lending rate for non-financial corporations. the latest observations are for january 2022. the impact of the pandemic monetary policy measures to assess the contribution of monetary policy to countering the pandemic shock, a natural point of comparison is the calculation of the adverse impact that would have materialised in the absence of the monetary policy response. the alternative path the economy would have taken without responsive monetary policy can be calculated by constructing counterfactual financial conditions and then feeding thes… |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.053 | to counter the sharp rise in energy prices, many governments adopted expensive and broad-based support measures for households and firms. but these measures risk diluting relative price signals that are crucial to incentivise energy saving and foster green investment. instead, government support should be temporary and targeted towards vulnerable households and firms. this would also help to limit risks to fiscal sustainability. fiscal policy and monetary policy need to work hand in hand. in view of the normalisation of monetary policy, it is essential to achieve a good balance between supporting energy security and ensuring price stability, while keeping the green transition on track. 4/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.048 | as to the policy instruments that can be deployed, the set of policy interest rates takes primacy and should be sufficient to deliver the two per cent target in scenarios in which the economy is not operating in the shadow of the effective lower bound and in which financial conditions are non- stressed. however, when the economy is close to the lower bound (either as a result of a sequence of adverse shocks or simply due to a sufficiently-low equilibrium real interest rate such that even the steady-state nominal interest rate is close to the lower bound), the strategy review concluded that monetary policy measures should be especially forceful or persistent to avoid negative deviations from the inflation target becoming entrenched. moreover, adopting forceful or persistent measures may … |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.048 | subsequently, to combat steadily rising inflation, in december 2021 we started normalising our monetary policy by announcing the end of our asset purchases, in tandem with targeted fiscal measures aimed at mitigating the hardship of soaring prices for the most vulnerable households and firms. the scope and nature of fiscal measures needs to be different now than it was at the height of the pandemic, following a long period of too low inflation. fiscal policy should not stoke inflation. it needs to be temporary and tailored to the most vulnerable households and businesses, who are being hardest hit by high inflation. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.041 | : response to a standard monetary policy shock: comparison across models (deviation from baseline in percentage points) ecb staff calculations. notes: this chart depicts the impulse responses of real output and inflation to a standard short-term interest rate shock (normalised to 100 basis points) for the ecb-base model, the ecb new area wide model (nawm) and the mmr model. real output refers to the output gap as a percentage of gdp. inflation is in year-on-year percentage change. all responses refer to deviation from the baseline in percentage points. |
The most representative speeches:
5.7 Topic 7: cost; wage; labour; competitiveness; growth
5.7.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | cost | 1 | 0.0792889 | competitiveness | 1 | 0.9994743 |
| 7 | wage | 2 | 0.0564848 | labour cost | 2 | 0.9993866 |
| 7 | labour | 3 | 0.0487243 | unit labour | 3 | 0.9992986 |
| 7 | competitiveness | 4 | 0.0472916 | unit labour cost | 4 | 0.9991234 |
| 7 | growth | 5 | 0.0366656 | unit | 5 | 0.9987734 |
| 7 | labour cost | 6 | 0.0341583 | cost | 6 | 0.9985084 |
| 7 | adjustment | 7 | 0.0304572 | ulc | 7 | 0.9976317 |
| 7 | unit | 8 | 0.0277111 | wage | 8 | 0.9974537 |
| 7 | unit labour | 9 | 0.0244875 | relative | 9 | 0.9971953 |
| 7 | unit labour cost | 10 | 0.0242487 | cost competitiveness | 10 | 0.9965767 |
| 7 | relative | 11 | 0.0205475 | labour | 11 | 0.9963974 |
| 7 | economy | 12 | 0.0189954 | ulc growth | 12 | 0.9963574 |
| 7 | development | 13 | 0.0180403 | relative price | 13 | 0.9959698 |
| 7 | productivity | 14 | 0.0163688 | price competitiveness | 14 | 0.9958342 |
| 7 | account | 15 | 0.0129064 | adjustment | 15 | 0.9956965 |
5.7.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.477 | iii competitiveness and unit labour cost developments in euro area countries having discussed the outlook for inflation and growth – as well as highlighted what are in my view the priority areas in which decisive progress on structural reforms is most urgently needed – i would now like to move on to another key challenge for the euro area countries: improving competitiveness. in this respect, let me elaborate further on developments in unit labour costs, 9 which i briefly mentioned a few minutes ago. a number of euro area countries have witnessed relatively strong increases in unit labour costs since the beginning of 1999. in particular, in cumulative terms, over the nine-year period from 1999 to 2007, a group of countries witnessed increases in unit labour costs of between 25% and 35%,… |
| Jean Claude-Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-09-11 | 0.377 | intra-euro area competitiveness developments persistent inflation and wage growth differentials may occur in a monetary union, determined by catching-up processes and/or by sustainable trend differentials in potential growth across countries. however, if induced by structural inefficiencies, misaligned national policies including wage-setting policies or overly optimistic expectations, such differentials may be worrisome and may have important adverse implications for cost competitiveness of individual countries in the euro area. as national monetary and exchange rate policies are no longer available options within the euro area, it is important to ensure that the remaining mechanisms of adjustment to shocks function properly and that the build-up of imbalances is avoided. rigidities in… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The process of economic, monetary and financial integration in Europe | Period_1 | 2006-12-04 | 0.358 | and of each particular economy and help contain relative unit labour costs through increased labour productivity. they would facilitate price adjustments all over the euro area where we observe a level of price stickiness significantly superior to what characterizes the us economy. they would permit to improve further very significantly the functioning of the labour markets, increasing flexibility and facilitating the attainment of full employment at a high level of participation rate. all these effects would both facilitate adjustments between economies inside the euro area and contribute to an efficient functioning of the euro area as a whole in the context of increased global trade and global financial integration. 14 the relatively modest implementation of the agenda thus far has cl… |
| Lucas Papademos: Inflation and competitiveness divergences in the euro area countries: causes, consequences and policy responses | Period_1 | 2007-09-13 | 0.310 | across euro area countries. this feature, which is not characteristic of the united states, may suggest that the underlying adjustment mechanisms in the euro area economies are not functioning as smoothly and in a timely manner, with potentially undesirable implications for the dynamics of economic activity and employment. to better understand the causes and consequences of the observed persistence of inflation rates across the euro area, we must look more closely at the inter-temporal and cross-border developments in the underlying determinants of inflation and growth, and in particular ulc and the factors that shape their level and evolution over time. what are the pertinent facts about the evolution and dispersion of ulc in the euro area? on average, unit labour cost in the euro area… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries (closing remarks) | Period_1 | 2005-06-21 | 0.310 | determinants of inflation differentials let me turn now to the determinants of inflation dispersion in the euro area. a first insight into the possible causes of inflation differentials in the euro area can be gained by performing an inflation accounting exercise, which breaks down the euro area inflation differentials, measured in terms of the gdp deflator, into their underlying determinants, namely internal factors – such as unit labour costs, profit margins and net indirect taxes – and external factors – such as import prices. this kind of analysis suggests that during the period 1999-2003 internal factors were the most important contributors to inflation differentials relative to the euro area average in the case of 9 member countries, while import costs played a major role in the c… |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s fight against low inflation - reasons and consequences | Period_2 | 2016-04-11 | 0.174 | the costs of too-low inflation let me move to the second question about our policy: even if a re-anchoring of expectations around levels in the lower portion of the price stability range were to take place, why is that fundamentally a problem? the answer to this has two parts. first are the costs that come from the level of inflation being too low, both in the steady state and when dealing with the legacies of the crisis. second are the costs that arise from transitioning between different anchors for inflation, and especially when the original objective is not being fulfilled. in terms of the costs of too-low inflation, there are three main issues, each of which we emphasised when we clarified our objective in 2003. first, in the presence of downward rigidities, delivering an inflation… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in a prolonged period of low inflation | Period_2 | 2014-05-26 | 0.171 | local factors to add to this, aggregate inflation has been dragged down by local factors linked to the sovereign debt crisis and the process of relative price adjustment in stressed countries. several euro area countries are currently undergoing internal devaluation to regain price competitiveness, both internationally and within the currency union. the crucial adjustments vis-à-vis other euro area countries have to take place irrespective of changes in the external value of the euro. this process began hesitantly in the early years of the crisis, largely due to nominal rigidities in wages and prices. the result was that adjustment took place more through quantities – i.e. unemployment – than through prices. stressed countries thus experienced a protracted period of declining disposable… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in the euro area | Period_2 | 2019-03-27 | 0.170 | policy in the euro area has become mildly expansionary, with the aggregate fiscal stance expected to be –0.4% of gdp in 2019 after five years of being broadly neutral.9 and our forward guidance on monetary policy has been effective, as shown by the continuing easing of financial conditions since last december. the outlook for wages and inflation the weakening growth picture has naturally affected the inflation outlook as well. our projections for headline inflation this year have been revised downwards and we now see inflation at 1.6% in 2021. slower growth will also lead to a more muted recovery in underlying inflation than we had previously expected. reflecting the weaker outlook, market-based measures of inflation expectations have edged down recently. the fall in market-based measur… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for global economic growth | Period_2 | 2014-06-02 | 0.152 | domestic demand has contributed to declining current account surpluses, rebalancing has also been aided by strong export performance. unit labour cost developments during the crisis have helped. in the past five years, the cumulative unit labour cost differential vis-à-vis the euro area fell by more than 20pp in ireland, 16.5pp in greece, 13.5pp in spain, and 9pp in portugal. yet euro area-wide potential growth has also declined. falling capital accumulation and labour utilisation have brought potential growth from a level close to 2% in the years preceding the crisis to less than 1% on average between 2008 and 2012.3 a recent study4 of the centre for european policy studies makes for sobering reading, suggesting that the prospective decline in the working age population (averaging 0.6%… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for global economic growth | Period_2 | 2014-06-02 | 0.150 | spurring productivity growth and competitiveness yet improvements in financial system are not a sufficient condition for improved growth prospects. more needs to be done to spur productivity growth through reforms that foster innovation and competitiveness. a recent, positive aspect has been that stressed euro area countries have taken significant steps in this regard. by reducing unit labour costs relative to euro area partners they have improved competitiveness and adjusted external imbalances. in 2013, all stressed countries – except cyprus – registered a surplus in their current account balances. cyprus is expected to run a surplus in 2014. compared to 2009, the current account (and capital transfers) balance has improved by about 16pp (of gdp) in greece, around 14pp in cyprus and p… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.274 | an example of this cost-push view of inflation is the increase in the minimum wage in germany, which takes effect tomorrow.[4] according to a survey, around 60% of affected firms said that they intend to raise prices in response to the increase in the minimum wage.[5] central banks have different ways to analyse and evaluate the relevance and strength of these two channels for the inflation outlook. despite its pitfalls, a prime tool for making such an assessment is the new keynesian phillips curve.[6] under this framework, firms set prices as a mark-up over marginal costs. because firms are forward- looking and change prices only infrequently, profit maximisation implies that consumer price inflation fundamentally depends on current and future expected real marginal costs.[7] real marg… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.150 | still, these adjustment processes (the absorption of higher energy costs across all sectors of the economy, the impact of bottlenecks and the post-pandemic re-establishment of those sectors most affected by the pandemic) may still have some distance to run, as is also suggested by indicators of rising costs in the earlier stages of production before goods and services reach consumers. in addition, the process of adjustment in nominal wages adds a further dimension to near-inflation dynamics, both due to the overall recovery in the labour market and the adverse impact of unexpected inflation over recent months on real wages. furthermore, even after the adjustment to these shocks has been completed, it is important to assess whether this phase of high inflation might permanently re-set in… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.146 | the credibility of the euro area’s nominal anchor. if long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, the risks of a wage-price spiral will be limited. this is what we have observed so far in the euro area. the ecb’s forward-looking wage tracker currently points to further increases in wages, but these are expected to remain at levels that are unlikely to set in motion a harmful wage-price dynamic. therefore, while a close monitoring of wage developments remains essential, at present the most likely outcome remains a further decline in real consumer wages and the labour share of income. our consumer expectations survey points in a similar direction. it found that households anticipate their real wages to fall by around 6% over the next twelve months (slide 7, left-hand chart).[17] |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.139 | firms’ efforts to protect profit margins may weaken link between labour costs and inflation the second factor driving a wedge between inflation and the labour share relates to the role of profits. unit labour costs account for a significant share of firms’ total costs and are hence central to the cost- push view of inflation. but the increase in other costs, such as the cost of capital or energy, is currently working in the opposite direction. specifically, the unprecedented scale of pipeline pressures means that firms may choose not to pass lower real unit labour costs on to consumer prices to protect their profit margins from higher energy costs. in some sectors, where producers have not been able to increase prices above the rise in costs, there could even be pressure on firms to act… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.123 | for example, digitalisation could trigger a second wave of globalisation based on the virtualisation of services. it might lead to higher trend productivity, which could temper unit labour cost growth even as wage growth becomes stronger. and it could also shift activity more towards digital “superstar” firms that have considerable market power and whose pricing is less sensitive to the business cycle. !241 but over the coming years, there is also a chance that prices will be pushed up. |
The most representative speeches:
5.8 Topic 8: central; central bank; bank; objective; banker
5.8.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | central | 1 | 0.1556087 | banker | 1 | 0.9993867 |
| 8 | central bank | 2 | 0.1301372 | central banker | 2 | 0.9990363 |
| 8 | bank | 3 | 0.1089848 | policy objective | 3 | 0.9990353 |
| 8 | objective | 4 | 0.0587063 | inflation objective | 4 | 0.9982475 |
| 8 | banker | 5 | 0.0196131 | monetary authority | 5 | 0.9981595 |
| 8 | credibility | 6 | 0.0193916 | systematic | 6 | 0.9978968 |
| 8 | central banker | 7 | 0.0180626 | central | 7 | 0.9977169 |
| 8 | conduct | 8 | 0.0134113 | credibility | 8 | 0.9976323 |
| 8 | principle | 9 | 0.0128576 | central bank | 9 | 0.9972776 |
| 8 | authority | 10 | 0.0101997 | objective | 10 | 0.9971912 |
| 8 | action | 11 | 0.0086492 | bank credibility | 11 | 0.9971455 |
| 8 | policy objective | 12 | 0.0085385 | monetary policy objective | 12 | 0.9966619 |
| 8 | goal | 13 | 0.0080955 | track record | 13 | 0.9966257 |
| 8 | inflation objective | 14 | 0.0074310 | central bank credibility | 14 | 0.9964876 |
| 8 | control | 15 | 0.0072095 | explicit | 15 | 0.9959699 |
5.8.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The changing role of communication | Period_1 | 2008-12-18 | 0.239 | why did central banks decide to become transparent? prior to the 1990s, central banks were very much working on the assumption that monetary policy effectiveness is greatest when the central bank systematically surprises the markets. the old belief was based on the notion that a central bank would measure the success of its actions by the extent to which economic activity could be raised and maintained above potential. if rational individuals already expect a certain change, they adjust their behaviour to that expectation. and that means that a monetary policy change would have no effect. in the past fifteen years, however, two important developments changed the theory and practice of central banking. first, the assumption that successful monetary policy acts by surprises and is made by… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Central banks and the public - the importance of communication | Period_1 | 2008-11-21 | 0.237 | the old belief – embodied in the first proposition – that monetary policy is made of a sequence of isolated steps, disconnected from one another and possibly randomised owed a great part of its theoretical appeal to the notion that rational agents do not suffer from money illusion. the logic went that if rational individuals effectively adjust their economic behaviours to insure against money illusion – as indeed they are likely to do over time – then only a central bank acting by unexpected moves can claim some success in steering economic conditions. 3 but how is “success” measured? here is where the case for unanticipated policy actions – and the systematic retention of information that would support this policy – built critically on the second proposition: that a central bank would … |
| Jürgen Stark: Delivering price stability - benefits and challenges | Period_1 | 2007-12-04 | 0.235 | maintaining credibility for the conduct of monetary policy a second guiding principle for monetary policy conduct is that a central bank cannot ignore the promises – implicit or explicit – made in the past, when designing present policy. in a world of imperfect knowledge and bounded rationality, the track record of a central bank is the only guide for the public to build a view on the true objectives guiding monetary policy, the authentic motives that direct its actions, over and beyond the official purposes that it openly professes. this conference assigns such practical principle of policymaking the theoretical dignity that it deserves. the central question here is how a monetary authority profoundly committed to the objective to which it is mandated, should incorporate in its rule-ba… |
| Mr Erçel discusses the monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 1999-01-08 | 0.199 | from the independence of the central bank governors on the governing council, one can infer a high degree of independence for the system. as i mentioned before, the ecb’s independence in implementing monetary policy towards the price stability objective can be ensured in this way. the second important characteristic of the ecb is its credibility. high credibility will increase the confidence of the public in the ecb’s policies and objectives, which in turn will help it achieve its primary objective. the most important ingredients of credibility are transparency and success in attaining its monetary policy objectives. for years now the central banks of germany, france and the uk have been earning credibility, and the confidence of firms, institutions and individuals in these banks has in… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Toward the first decade of Economic and Monetary Union - experiences and perspectives | Period_1 | 2008-04-29 | 0.167 | the ecb’s past track record let me now turn to the ecb’s past track record. guiding inflation and interest rate expectations requires not only precise and consistent communication of the central bank’s ultimate objective and the strategy, but also consistency between words and deeds. in the end, only a track record of monetary policy decisions can support the central bank’s credibility. looking back in time, the ecb is also gradually building up its own track record – something which, as a new institution, simply did not exist when we started operations. since its inception, the eurosystem has been tested by a series of events and challenges, some of which we shared with the other major economic areas in the world, and some which were characteristic of our european environment. thanks t… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.242 | what i refer to as monetary policy objectives are the overarching economic goals of a central bank. for most central banks around the globe, these goals include – as a primary component – the pursuit of price stability. this objective is often complemented by ancillary policy preoccupations, such as minimising deviations from sustainable growth and financial stability. in the modern central banking universe that has emerged since the macroeconomic failures of the 1970s, no one would doubt that while price stability is a desirable medium-term goal for monetary policy. avoiding excessive economic fluctuations around the trend and minimising financial instability, however, often has a different status. these objectives are ancillary because they have more to do with the path to the medium-… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.200 | interactions between the conduct of monetary policy and its objectives the success of a monetary policy strategy depends on the interaction between these elements: the more credible a central bank’s commitment to its objective, the more flexibly it can adjust its monetary policy conduct to specific challenges. there are two reasons for this. first, if expectations are firmly anchored by the central bank’s objective, short-term “innovations” in policy conduct will not induce market participants to fundamentally re-assess their anticipations of where the economy will stabilise in the medium term, when all the current shocks have dissipated. this is particularly relevant in crises when the central bank is prompted to expand its toolbox so as to confront exceptional circumstances. by contra… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.187 | i wish to thank fédéric holm-hadulla and massimo rostagno for their contributions to this speech. i remain solely responsible for the opinions contained herein. ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, it is a great pleasure to speak to you today. i would like to use this opportunity to reflect on a fundamental tension lying at the heart of monetary policy: a central bank’s success in ensuring macroeconomic stability depends on it having a credible commitment to price stability. and to build and nurture such credibility, it should have a track record of responding in a consistent, transparent and predictable way to shocks hitting the economy. at the same time, financial and macroeconomic disturbances are sometimes of a scale and complexity that they alter the underlying structural rel… |
| Peter Praet: Speech on the occasion of the “Annual Danish Top Executive Summit 2013” | Period_2 | 2013-01-30 | 0.171 | introduction it is a real pleasure for me to share some thoughts today with such a distinguished group of business leaders. 1 it may strike you as somewhat paradoxical for a central banker to address such an audience in a conference where the main theme is innovative thinking. after all, central bankers have traditionally been stereotyped as conservative and, well, rather dull. i firmly believe, though, that in a constantly changing world, decision-makers need to develop and maintain a healthy degree of scepticism around whether their current strategies and practices remain fit-for-purpose. this holds for decision-makers in business as well as in the public policy domain. and it is particularly relevant for central bankers, who have shouldered large part of the responsibility to navigat… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.169 | second, a credible commitment to the objective allows a central bank to tailor the strength and timing of its monetary policy response more specifically to the shocks that hit the economy from time to time. macroeconomic disturbances can be broadly categorised according to whether they affect mainly the demand side or the supply side of the economy. in the case of a negative demand shock, both economic activity and inflation will tend to fall. typically, a financial crisis is one example of a negative demand shock: credit conditions are restricted, aggregate demand is restrained and firms are encouraged to undercut their competitors, thereby exerting downward pressure on inflation. to the extent warranted by the magnitude of the shock, the central bank thus faces an unambiguous policy p… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.089 | the role of monetary policy the transition to the great volatility is not a pre-determined outcome, however. if the nature of the shocks changes – that is, if one of the factors that had contributed to the great moderation subsides – the other factor – better policies – becomes more important in ensuring macroeconomic stability. fiscal policy will play an important role in enhancing the resilience of our economies. governments need to adapt their policies to the risk of a protracted period of lower potential output growth. with debt-to-gdp ratios at or close to historical highs, spending should focus on protecting social cohesion and promoting productive and green investments that will help secure long-term prosperity and rebuild fiscal space needed to cushion future shocks. monetary po… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.074 | for central banks, these findings highlight the importance of communicating our monetary policy objectives effectively — an important consideration in our strategy review and in our decision to adopt a symmetric inflation target of 2% over the medium term.!““! another conference paper addresses this issue by presenting empirical evidence corroborating the hypothesis that central bank communication focusing on the goals of monetary policy actions is more effective than communication focusing on individual monetary policy instruments.!12! behavioural changes due to the pandemic |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.064 | however, an inflation increase due to a supply-side shock cannot be expected to significantly alleviate the debt burden over the medium term. ecb staff simulations show that the resulting decline in real growth, higher interest payments and deteriorating primary deficits would increase public debt ratios over longer horizons (slide 11, right-hand chart). rising interest rates as a result of tighter monetary policy or higher public debt lift up the interest rate- growth differential for a given rate of potential growth. the negative interest rate-growth differential before the pandemic helped to contain, or even reduce, debt-to-gdp ratios. the differential still stands near historic lows but is about to become less favourable (slide 12, left-hand chart). against this backdrop, current ci… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.056 | uncertainty about inflation persistence requires a forceful policy response the first observation relates to how central banks should act in the current environment of large uncertainty. william brainard’s well-known attenuation principle suggests that central banks should tread carefully in the face of uncertainty about how their policies are transmitted to the broader economy.[18] there are at least two conceptual cases where the brainard principle breaks down. one is the existence of the effective lower bound. the best way for central banks to avoid the perils of a liquidity trap is to ease policy swiftly when a disinflationary shock hits the economy in the vicinity of the lower bound.[19] this principle has become a cornerstone of the monetary policy strategies of many central banks… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.050 | arise upon a policy announcement (or in anticipation of the announcement) and are influenced by the expected future evolution of central banks’ asset holdings. empirical evidence suggests that stock effects account for the bulk of the impact of asset purchases and are likely to last longer (although assessing their duration is extremely difficult). conversely, within the academic literature, “flow effects” refer to those effects that emerge through the actual implementation of the purchases and generally reflect improvements in liquidity conditions and market functioning during periods of high financial stress. the evidence suggests that flow effects are typically contained and short-lived. it is notable, however, that the term “flow effects” has at times been used in relation to the hi… |
The most representative speeches:
5.9 Topic 9: country; convergence; member; eu; process
5.9.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | country | 1 | 0.0744281 | accession | 1 | 0.9995617 |
| 9 | convergence | 2 | 0.0506685 | accession country | 2 | 0.9992988 |
| 9 | member | 3 | 0.0403577 | adoption | 3 | 0.9989487 |
| 9 | eu | 4 | 0.0312798 | erm | 4 | 0.9987727 |
| 9 | process | 5 | 0.0307194 | enlargement | 5 | 0.9986854 |
| 9 | accession | 6 | 0.0255640 | real convergence | 6 | 0.9979827 |
| 9 | adoption | 7 | 0.0187275 | eu member | 7 | 0.9979404 |
| 9 | accession country | 8 | 0.0170464 | convergence | 8 | 0.9977177 |
| 9 | criterion | 9 | 0.0134601 | entry | 9 | 0.9971079 |
| 9 | progress | 10 | 0.0130118 | eastern | 10 | 0.9970197 |
| 9 | challenge | 11 | 0.0125635 | criterion | 11 | 0.9968429 |
| 9 | enlargement | 12 | 0.0112186 | convergence criterion | 12 | 0.9966647 |
| 9 | erm | 13 | 0.0108824 | membership | 13 | 0.9955305 |
| 9 | adopt | 14 | 0.0107703 | eu | 14 | 0.9952512 |
| 9 | real | 15 | 0.0104341 | member | 15 | 0.9952497 |
5.9.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Looking at EU and euro area enlargement from a central banker’s angle - the views of the ECB | Period_1 | 2006-03-03 | 0.487 | euro area enlargement this brings me to the second part of my speech, in which i will discuss the path towards joining the euro area that should be followed upon accession. along this path, every team member can have their own style, as long as the style respects the rules. pre-euro-entry “euroisation” for example is not acceptable. i will now explain in more detail the process of monetary integration and the rules that apply to it. with the exception of denmark and the united kingdom, eu member states do not have an opt-out clause. the path towards euro adoption is embedded in a well-defined multilateral institutional framework and comprises three phases: • the first phase is the period from eu accession up to the country joining erm ii. in this phase, the respective member states cont… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the European Central Bank’s Annual Report for 2003 | Period_1 | 2004-04-30 | 0.440 | eu enlargement to conclude my statement, let me make a few comments on eu enlargement. besides the historic dimension, eu enlargement will also imply substantial benefits in economic terms, both for the new and the current member states. in the ten acceding countries, the prospect of accession has encouraged countries to pursue economic policies that have already led to substantial progress in macroeconomic stabilisation and structural reforms. this progress is set to continue, as the new member states will be subject to the eu’s overall economic policy coordination and surveillance framework. looking further ahead, full integration into the single market will increase growth prospects and thus foster the catching-up process with the current member states, mainly through trade and inves… |
| Christian Noyer: Challenges ahead - the accession process | Period_1 | 2001-11-20 | 0.430 | ladies and gentlemen, allow me to reflect on this question for a moment and explain why we hold this view. being small open economies, most accession countries cannot disregard exchange rate developments when making their monetary policy decisions. the exchange rate is generally a more potent transmission channel of monetary policy decisions than domestic interest rates, and it also plays a crucial role in explaining the pass-through to price developments in most accession countries. thus, in order to achieve further disinflation and sustainable growth, excessive exchange rate fluctuations need to be avoided. in our view, and this view is supported by our previous experiences with the ems/erm framework, erm ii provides a useful mechanism to anchor exchange rate expectations. at the same… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: The ECB and the accession process | Period_1 | 2001-11-29 | 0.416 | accession countries do not have to pay attention to progress in nominal convergence. on the contrary, a balanced monetary and fiscal policy stance and wage increases supported by productivity gains should favour the disinflation process of accession countries, and allow them to make progress on nominal and real convergence in parallel. as a specific topic that is of great relevance to the ecb in the accession process, i would like to mention the structure and functioning of the accession countries’ financial sector. significant progress has been made in restructuring and consolidating the banking sector over the past few years. this progress has been achieved through the large-scale privatisation of state-owned banks and the extensive opening-up of the banking sector to foreign ownershi… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Looking at EU and euro area enlargement from a central banker’s angle - the views of the ECB | Period_1 | 2006-03-03 | 0.410 | • for the sake of completeness, let me briefly mention that, for those countries complying with the convergence criteria, more practical arrangements will have to be set in motion to prepare for euro adoption. once the ecofin council has decided that an eu member state outside the euro area can adopt the euro, the country needs to prepare for example the cash changeover and the full integration of its central bank into the eurosystem. it is important to bear in mind that the process of monetary integration, which i have just illustrated, is based on some general principles that guide the process. these are defined by the maastricht treaty and other key documents. one basic principle that i would like to draw your attention to is that there is no single trajectory towards the euro that c… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.283 | the framework for convergence with two exceptions, all eu members that are not yet in the euro area are expected to adopt the single currency on meeting certain convergence criteria. as you know, the treaty defines these criteria along three dimensions. the first dimension is the degree of nominal convergence with the euro area. this implies achieving price stability; ensuring the sustainability of the government’s financial position; realising sustainable convergence of long-term nominal interest rates; and maintaining a stable exchange rate between the national currency and the euro. the treaty also requires that nominal convergence is sustainable. this is not possible without it being underpinned by a high degree of real convergence. according to this second dimension, adopting the e… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.243 | the institutional challenge is the first major challenge with which we are currently confronted. we have already made much progress in addressing the challenge. but a great deal of work remains to be done. the economic challenge the second and complementary challenge is economic. the benefits of adopting the euro are greater the more consistent the economic structures of existing and prospective members are. convergence can be broadly defined as a process in which cross-country differences in economic structures are reduced over time. the success of the convergence process ultimately depends on the sustainability of the underlying policies. shortcomings in the process of convergence across euro area members have been at the root of the challenges we have faced since 2010. but i am pleas… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.158 | conclusions let me draw to a close. the experiences of the past few years have shown that participation in a monetary union places important demands on national economic policies. euro area governments are hard at work responding to those demands. they are correcting macroeconomic imbalances. they are establishing a stronger framework of governance to keep countries on the path of sustainable convergence. and they are improving the institutional set-up underpinning monetary union. for those eu members that have not yet adopted the euro, the challenge is to achieve a high degree of sustainable convergence with the euro area. this requires credible commitment on the part of their central banks to achieve price stability and treatment of exchange rate policies as a matter of common interes… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.139 | ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to be here in budapest and to participate in the annual anchor conference. i understand that this will be the last anchor conference for andrás simor in his position as governor of the magyar nemzeti bank. so this is an excellent opportunity for me to pay him a sincere tribute for his work here and as a valued member of the general council of the european central bank (ecb). in my remarks today, i would like to focus on the process of economic convergence in europe. as the experiences of recent years have made clear, this process does not end with a country’s adoption of the euro. nor does participation in the single monetary policy provide automatic delivery of convergence. i will first talk about the challenges facing the euro area as a res… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Economic recovery and the new phase of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2017-11-14 | 0.111 | it is however also true that the present favourable economic environment, should be used to make progress in reinforcing the economic and monetary union resilience. this corresponds to the common interest of countries made closely interdependent by the single currency. reforms at national and eu level will be crucial to improve resilience to shocks, increase growth potential and ultimately restore a path of real economic convergence among member countries. thank you for your attention. |
| Christine Lagarde: Challenges along Europe’s road | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.064 | christine lagarde: challenges along europe’s road speech by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the international conference to mark the 30th anniversary of banka slovenije, ljubljana, 11 may 2022 * * * it is a pleasure to be in ljubljana today to discuss “the road already travelled and contemporary challenges”. europe can learn a great deal from the journey of slovenia in recent decades. the country has faced and overcome serious challenges over the years: its independence from yugoslavia; joining the eu; adopting the euro; overcoming the crisis that erupted in 2013; and now the pandemic overlayered with russian war against ukraine. but time and again, slovenia has risen to the challenge and excelled. it has become an integral part of european value chains,… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.049 | in particular, under the next generation eu (ngeu) programme a european fiscal instrument was created with the necessary resources to support the recovery.[12] the interventions were based on national recovery and resilience plans detailing reform and investment strategies consistent with shared objectives at european level, such as the green and digital transitions.[13] high debt countries, such as italy and spain, obtained european resources amounting, respectively, to 11% and 6% of gdp. this created the basis for a european social contract for exiting the pandemic: eu member states committed to make their economies more competitive in exchange for european funding.[14] in this way, not only would ngeu enhance medium-term growth prospects but it would also contribute to convergence. t… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.044 | after the treaty of rome, the development of the european project contributed to economic growth in the member states for many years: the progressive abolition of customs tariffs favoured specialisation, made it possible to reap the benefits of economies of scale, and stimulated efficiency and competition, with positive effects on employment and welfare. empirical estimates find that without the single market, our real gdp per capita would be around one-fifth lower today.[2] the european economic community subsequently evolved into the european union, becoming an area where europeans work together on a wide set of policies and enjoy freedom and peace. in 1999 we went one step further with emu. this was a logical step to buttress the single market: the euro eliminates exchange rate risk,… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.041 | furthermore, very good progress has been made as regards the imf’s new resilience and sustainability trust (rst), which has now become operational. for contributions by eu national central banks, it is essential that claims on the rst maintain reserve asset quality. in our assessment, the modalities of the loan and deposit accounts of the rst, as well as the deposit and investment account of the poverty reduction and growth trust, are acceptable in that regard. however, we note that the channelling of special drawing rights by eu national central banks to multilateral development banks or individual countries would not be compatible with the eu’s legal framework. |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.041 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.10 Topic 10: risk; bank; financial; credit; institution
5.10.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | risk | 1 | 0.0764398 | leverage | 1 | 0.9989479 |
| 10 | bank | 2 | 0.0760306 | financial institution | 2 | 0.9980724 |
| 10 | financial | 3 | 0.0683569 | risk management | 3 | 0.9979809 |
| 10 | credit | 4 | 0.0263053 | exposure | 4 | 0.9976336 |
| 10 | institution | 5 | 0.0220080 | business model | 5 | 0.9974545 |
| 10 | asset | 6 | 0.0204733 | valuation | 6 | 0.9966696 |
| 10 | capital | 7 | 0.0182224 | default | 7 | 0.9965757 |
| 10 | increase | 8 | 0.0173015 | management | 8 | 0.9964936 |
| 10 | fund | 9 | 0.0170969 | financial intermediary | 9 | 0.9961340 |
| 10 | sector | 10 | 0.0169946 | hedge | 10 | 0.9957857 |
| 10 | liquidity | 11 | 0.0161761 | credit risk | 11 | 0.9955317 |
| 10 | leverage | 12 | 0.0138228 | intermediary | 12 | 0.9953518 |
| 10 | management | 13 | 0.0133112 | institution | 13 | 0.9952526 |
| 10 | financial institution | 14 | 0.0130043 | profitability | 14 | 0.9950918 |
| 10 | market | 15 | 0.0123904 | financial instrument | 15 | 0.9946042 |
5.10.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Issues paper for the conference “The financial crisis and its consequences for the world economy” | Period_1 | 2008-12-16 | 0.424 | intermediation. rather than holding the credits they originated, credit institutions increasingly sold them off – possibly after repackaging them – to the capital market. the advocators of the new financial instruments praised them as facilitators of an efficient distribution of risk. however, these instruments do not eliminate credit risk. therefore, the high speed of innovation and the instruments’ increasing complexity as well as the exploding trade also pointed to potential weaknesses that required significant vigilance by all parties involved, i.e. originators, investors, rating agencies and supervisors. thus, “creative destruction” turned into “destructive creation”. however, the crisis proves that the institutional framework has not kept pace with the fast speed of innovation. in… |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.399 | market adjustment is still ongoing. nevertheless, i would like to highlight four areas that are also pertinent to the issues of financial integration and development we are discussing. • first, the underlying causes and triggers are to be found in the price dynamics of the us housing market and the excesses and shortcomings (in the practices) in the us sub-prime mortgage market. so, a main determining factor of the financial market turbulence is that same one – property price overvaluation – that characterised previous episodes, as emphasised by kenneth rogoff. • second, weaknesses in the functioning of the market for structured finance products. these included valuation uncertainties due to the complexity of many products, the imperfect information available about the underlying asset … |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.397 | globalisation on the financial system – its efficiency and stability – it is important to keep in mind the role of the other factors, e.g. financial innovation, new business models, risk management practices, which have simultaneously exerted a significant impact on the functioning of financial markets and institutions. the securitisation of bank loans and the development of credit risk transfer (crt) instruments and complex structured finance products have fundamentally changed the functioning of the financial system and the distribution of risk across sectors and borders. since the mid-1980s, an unprecedented growth in the development and issuance of new financial market instruments has allowed the transfer of risks across market participants also in connection with previously relativ… |
| Jürgen Stark: Issues paper for the conference “The financial crisis and its consequences for the world economy” | Period_1 | 2008-12-16 | 0.357 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Issues paper for the conference “The financial crisis and its consequences for the world economy” | Period_1 | 2008-12-16 | 0.352 | • not cover all possible states of nature but rather provide automatic stabilisers for the financial system in general term; • strengthen incentives that improve the disciplining forces of competition; • discourage “short-termism” and promote a medium to long-term attitude of financial agents towards success and stability; • not prevent financial innovation as it is important for growth and employment; • but strengthen at the same time the concept of liability and responsibility. it must be clear for those who engage in risky activities that they will be held accountable if these risks materialise. there are already some important initiatives that provide some guidance for consistent regulatory standards on an international basis: • the g20 has approved a set of international standards … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the European recovery | Period_2 | 2015-06-02 | 0.270 | in a single currency area, macro-prudential policies are particularly important to deal with sectoral and regional risks that cannot be accounted for by a common monetary policy. measures such as the caps on loan-to-value (ltv) or debt-to-income (dti) ratios are suitable instruments to address these developments. in this context, recent research suggests that exposure-based measures, such as ltv and dti could be more efficient than capital-based measures. on the other hand, they may generate important cross-border spill- overs and leakages, and moreover, are now solely in the remit of national authorities. implementing them will therefore require co-ordination and the ecb will play an active role to facilitate this in the euro area. now, the present tools of macroprudential policy are m… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Low inflation as a challenge for monetary policy and financial stability? | Period_2 | 2014-07-08 | 0.247 | countries. such an instrument could only be considered in a true emergency, for example in the case of imminent deflation. such risks, however, are currently neither discernible nor expected. what is also being discussed is the revitalisation of the market for securitised loans. that is certainly a worthy goal, given that asset-backed securities (abss) have been exceedingly demonised since the outbreak of the financial crisis. they certainly played a role in causing the crisis, but it must be borne in mind that not every case of securitisation is the same. what i am thinking of in this respect are not re-securitisation positions and synthetic securitisation transactions, but rather of very simply and clearly constructed products that are far less risky. the rate of default for european … |
| Yves Mersch: Asset price inflation and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2020-01-28 | 0.198 | greater risk-taking extends beyond the traditional banking system. when non-bank financial institutions (for example pension funds and insurance companies) target a certain nominal rate of return, an environment of lower overall returns means they have to “search for yield” – in other words, acquire riskier assets to maintain nominal returns.[4] we are already seeing some signs of increased risk-taking by non-banks such as pension and mutual funds.[5] |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Monetary policy - end of history? | Period_2 | 2018-07-27 | 0.196 | so the debate about the future does not end here. another thing to discuss is how monetary policy and financial stability interact. and this debate also involves our standard tool, the interest rates. interest rates have been very low for quite some time now. this has coincided with an upsurge in asset prices and a compression of spreads on risky securities. against this backdrop, some economists argue that monetary policy has an effect on both the capacity and the appetite of investors to take on risk.4 this has been termed the risk-taking channel, and it does not play a role in standard monetary policy frameworks. these focus instead on the interest rate, credit or bank lending channels. now, how does this risk-taking channel work? well, it can work in different ways. for a start, low… |
| Peter Praet: The low interest rate environment in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-09-17 | 0.190 | across countries and types of business. small and medium-sized, non-diversified life insurers with high policyholder guarantees are typically highly exposed to low yields and have found their business models more under pressure. for pension funds the impact of low interest rates is strongest on those maintaining defined benefit schemes. the challenges for the insurance sector were underscored by the mixed performance in the stress test undertaken in 2014 by the european insurance and occupational pensions authority (eiopa). 2 while the top 30 european insurers all fulfilled the solvency ii requirements in the baseline scenario, 14% of participants – mainly small firms representing 3% of total assets in the sample – did not do so. the similar exercise currently being conducted by eiopa f… |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.280 | repricing risks and liquidity difficulties render financial markets and non-bank financial institutions vulnerable to disorderly risk adjustments. investment funds’ liquid asset holdings remain low and could thus amplify a market correction in a forced selling scenario. since last year, rising rates reduced by around 4% the value of insurance companies and pension funds’ bond portfolios. this points to risks from further valuation losses, especially for leveraged and liquidity-constrained institutions. |
| Luis de Guindos: Building the financial system of the 21st century | Period_3 | 2022-05-23 | 0.225 | financial stability the macroeconomic forces i have just discussed, amplified by the economic fallout from the russia- ukraine war, also have implications for the financial stability outlook. the improved economic conditions throughout 2021 helped to reduce near-term risks to financial stability. but medium-term vulnerabilities continued to build up in the latter half of last year. the pandemic left a legacy of significantly higher levels of indebtedness across sectors, signs of overvaluation in some financial and property markets, and increased risk-taking by non-bank financial institutions. since the russian invasion, financial stability concerns have centred on the economic and inflationary impacts of the current macro-financial environment through higher commodity and energy prices,… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.219 | the euro area banking sector has sound capital levels and continues to benefit from the falling levels of non-performing loans we have been seeing since 2014. however, while bank profitability has so far been supported by higher interest margins and low impairments, the economic outlook makes future profitability very uncertain. we are seeing early signs of an increase in credit risk, which warrants careful monitoring. russia’s invasion of ukraine has compounded the existing macro-financial vulnerabilities and increased the likelihood of risks materialising in the near term. in this challenging environment, macroprudential authorities in some countries could still increase capital buffers, provided that procyclical effects are avoided. this would preserve the banking sector’s resilience… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.203 | it is also important to make further progress with global financial reforms. in particular, the resilience of the non-bank financial sector could be improved by enhancing the availability and use of liquidity management tools for open-ended investment funds and by better aligning redemption terms with asset liquidity via more structural liquidity tools. further policy work on margining practices and non-bank leverage would also be important. |
| Luis de Guindos: Euro area current policy challenges | Period_3 | 2022-09-16 | 0.201 | vulnerabilities in euro area residential real estate markets are also rising in light of continued price increases and vigorous mortgage lending growth. in the first quarter of 2022 euro area residential real estate price growth stood at 9.8%, the highest nominal growth rate since the early 1990s. however, since the beginning of the year, household survey responses on the intention to buy a house have declined, and banks have lowered their expectations regarding mortgage loan demand, pointing to a greater potential for house price corrections. turning to financial institutions, vulnerabilities in the non-bank financial sector have also increased this year. the risk that forced selling by investment funds could amplify a market correction remains high, amid low liquidity buffers. duratio… |
The most representative speeches:
5.11 Topic 11: remain; growth; continue; development; quarter
5.11.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | remain | 1 | 0.0241565 | real disposable | 1 | 0.9927260 |
| 11 | growth | 2 | 0.0214020 | economic growth | 2 | 0.9925095 |
| 11 | continue | 3 | 0.0200568 | disposable | 3 | 0.9922003 |
| 11 | development | 4 | 0.0157008 | domestic inflationary | 4 | 0.9910276 |
| 11 | quarter | 5 | 0.0139071 | commissioner | 5 | 0.9905303 |
| 11 | economic growth | 6 | 0.0133947 | ongoing | 6 | 0.9904264 |
| 11 | risk | 7 | 0.0126260 | real disposable income | 7 | 0.9903173 |
| 11 | oil | 8 | 0.0112807 | disposable income | 8 | 0.9900971 |
| 11 | ongoing | 9 | 0.0112807 | domestic inflationary pressure | 9 | 0.9900111 |
| 11 | oil price | 10 | 0.0111526 | indirect tax | 10 | 0.9898351 |
| 11 | support | 11 | 0.0104480 | interest rate unchanged | 11 | 0.9896117 |
| 11 | confirm | 12 | 0.0096152 | confirm | 12 | 0.9894582 |
| 11 | meet | 13 | 0.0096152 | consumption growth | 13 | 0.9889506 |
| 11 | strong | 14 | 0.0094871 | attend | 14 | 0.9887221 |
| 11 | stability | 15 | 0.0093590 | earnings | 15 | 0.9886924 |
5.11.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2006-08-04 | 0.668 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to this press conference to report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. the meeting was also attended by commissioner almunia. at today’s meeting, we decided to increase the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points. this decision reflects the upside risks to price stability over the medium term that we have identified through both our economic and monetary analyses. it will contribute to ensuring that medium to longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area remain solidly anchored at levels consistent with price stability. as stressed on previous occasions, such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting economic growth and j… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2007-01-12 | 0.667 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our first press conference in 2007. let me therefore wish you all a very happy new year. i would also like to take this opportunity to welcome slovenia as the thirteenth country to adopt the euro as its currency. accordingly, mr gaspari, the governor of banka slovenije, became a member of the governing council on 1 january 2007. let me now report on the outcome of our meeting, which was also attended by the president of the eurogroup, prime minister juncker, and commissioner almunia. on the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today’s meeting to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the information that has become available since our last meeting has further underpinned … |
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2007-07-06 | 0.649 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to today’s press conference. let me report on the outcome of our meeting, which was also attended by commissioner almunia. on the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today’s meeting to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the information that has become available since our previous meeting has further underpinned the reasoning behind our decision to increase interest rates in june. it has also confirmed that the medium-term outlook for price stability remains subject to upside risks. given the positive economic environment in the euro area, our monetary policy is still on the accommodative side, with overall financing conditions favourable, money and credit growth vigorou… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2006-10-06 | 0.631 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to the press conference here in paris. i would particularly like to thank governor noyer for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to the staff of the banque de france for the excellent organisation of the meeting of the governing council. let me now report on the outcome of our meeting, which was also attended by the president of the eurogroup, prime minister juncker, and commissioner almunia. at today’s meeting, we decided to increase the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points. this decision reflects the upside risks to price stability over the medium term that we have identified through both our economic and monetary analyses. today’s decision will contribute to ensuring that medium to … |
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2006-07-12 | 0.622 | ladies and gentlemen, let me welcome you to our press conference and report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the ecb’s governing council. the meeting was also attended by commissioner almunia. on the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, at today’s meeting we decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the information that has become available since our last meeting has confirmed that a further withdrawal of monetary accommodation was warranted to contain upside risks to price stability. indeed, acting in a timely manner to contain such risks remains essential to ensure that inflation expectations in the euro area are kept solidly anchored at levels consistent with price stability. such anchoring of inflation expectations is a prerequisite for monetary poli… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Securing sustained economic growth in the euro area | Period_2 | 2016-10-12 | 0.062 | prospects for the euro area economy turning to recent euro area developments, the recovery is continuing its moderate but steady pace, supported mainly by the ecb’s expansionary policies, which have significantly improved financial conditions, reduced financial fragmentation and supported economic activity and inflation. in the absence of our measures, both growth and inflation in the euro area would have been significantly worse, as our models calculate that inflation and growth would be lower by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, than the forecast values of 0.2% and 1.7% for this year. for three years now, inflation has been quite low with a level of 0.4% in 2014, 0% last year and 0.2% forecast for this year. however, the recent flash estimate for september at 0.4% may indic… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2013 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-04-08 | 0.047 | an increase of €500 billion of our monetary base. however, more than €500 billion have already been paid, and excess liquidity came down from a peak of €800 billion to a little over €100 billion. the high levels of inflation that some voices predicted never materialised, and we are now in a regime of low inflation. we closely monitor developments in money markets that may result from the concurrent reduction in abundant liquidity. we continue to stand ready to take measures to ensure stable money market conditions. in order to safeguard price stability in the environment of weak economic activity and downward revisions to the inflation outlook, we lowered key ecb interest rates in may and again in november 2013. in late spring and summer we noted a sustained increase in expected interes… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.044 | there is also evidence that negative rates have increased corporate investment: firms with large holdings of liquid assets that are exposed to negative deposit rates have increased investment compared with firms with small holdings of liquid assets that are less affected by negative deposit rates (see chart 5).[14] this effect is economically significant and estimated to boost corporate investment by as much as 1 percentage point per annum. investment growth of firms exposed to negative deposit rates |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.042 | while chart 3 shows that the net tightening of credit standards on loans to firms remains moderate compared with the global financial and sovereign debt crises, it signals potential risks to future loan growth. this reflects the well-established leading indicator properties of the bls, according to which changes in credit standards on loans to euro area firms tend to lead actual lending to firms by around four to five quarters. reinforcing these cautionary signals, the bls also shows that the scaling back of |
| Isabel Schnabel: COVID-19 and monetary policy - reinforcing prevailing challenges | Period_2 | 2020-11-24 | 0.038 | [20] duca-radu, i., kenny, g. and reuter, a. (2020), “inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large multi-country survey”, journal of monetary economics, march. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.058 | wage growth is strengthening, supported by robust labour markets and some catch-up in wages to compensate workers for high inflation. as these factors are set to remain in place, the eurosystem staff projections see wages growing at rates well above historical averages and pushing up inflation throughout the projection period. most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around two per cent, although further above-target revisions to some indicators warrant continued monitoring. |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.046 | the currently high inflation is expected to stay above our target for an extended period. our monetary policy must therefore remain focused on reducing support for demand and guarding against the risk of second-round effects. amid the present uncertainty, future decisions on policy rates will continue to be data-dependent and taken on a meeting-by-meeting approach. the policy decisions we will take at our next meeting will be based on various elements, including our december macroeconomic projections. at this meeting, we also expect to lay out the key principles for reducing the bond holdings in our monetary policy portfolios. we will proceed with prudence, continuing to normalise our monetary policy in line with our medium-term price stability objective. 4/4 bis - central bankers’ spee… |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.042 | the pandemic and the war have shaken the environment in which the eu must address the vital challenges that it faces, including the ongoing climate and environmental crises. since russia’s unprovoked invasion of ukraine, the global economic outlook has become much less favourable. having said that, the invasion has not shaken the eu’s resolve to address the challenges faced. in actual fact, the war and the ensuing energy crisis have only served to increase eu authorities’ determination to reduce the bloc’s dependence on fossil energy sources. even if in the very near-term the energy crisis may cause an increase in non-gas fossil fuel being used, the likelihood of a timely and orderly transition towards a low-carbon economy consistent with the eu’s commitment to the paris agreement has i… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.040 | second, prolonged imported price shocks make it harder to assess whether inflation is feeding into domestic price pressures. the fact that core inflation is increasing above 2% may initially seem to suggest that domestic inflationary pressures are accumulating. however, rising core inflation is partly due to higher energy prices, which are pushing up costs in almost all sectors (chart 11). |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.040 | euro area economic outlook and energy price developments growth in the euro area is estimated to have slowed down significantly in the third quarter of this year, with real gdp growing at 0.2%. high inflation continues to dampen spending and production throughout the economy. severe disruptions in the supply of gas have worsened the situation further, and both consumer and business confidence have fallen rapidly. demand for services is decelerating following the strong rebound that came with the reopening of the economy over the summer, especially in tourism. the continued weakening in global demand, also in the context of tighter monetary policy in many major economies, and the worsening terms of trade mean that there is less support for the euro area economy. |
The most representative speeches:
5.12 Topic 12: war; economy; impact; ukraine; time
5.12.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | war | 1 | 0.0585938 | war | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 12 | economy | 2 | 0.0529137 | ukraine | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 12 | impact | 3 | 0.0411985 | russia | 3 | 0.9991239 |
| 12 | ukraine | 4 | 0.0300158 | invasion | 4 | 0.9990359 |
| 12 | time | 5 | 0.0198981 | russian | 5 | 0.9987729 |
| 12 | strong | 6 | 0.0188331 | russian invasion | 6 | 0.9972806 |
| 12 | russia | 7 | 0.0184781 | uncertain | 7 | 0.9968022 |
| 12 | uncertainty | 8 | 0.0172356 | exacerbate | 8 | 0.9961431 |
| 12 | europe | 9 | 0.0168806 | scenario | 9 | 0.9959647 |
| 12 | invasion | 10 | 0.0140405 | sanction | 10 | 0.9958748 |
| 12 | scenario | 11 | 0.0131530 | evolve | 11 | 0.9957061 |
| 12 | russian | 12 | 0.0127980 | shield | 12 | 0.9957005 |
| 12 | slow | 13 | 0.0117330 | dependence | 13 | 0.9955262 |
| 12 | confidence | 14 | 0.0099579 | geopolitical | 14 | 0.9953995 |
| 12 | start | 15 | 0.0099579 | aggression | 15 | 0.9951230 |
5.12.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.089 | 2 “what an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man that age was which came to an end in august, 1914! […] the inhabitant of london could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his door-step; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or even trouble, in their prospective fruits and advantages; or he could decide to couple the security of his fortunes with the good faith of the townspeople of any substantial municipality in any continent that fancy or information might recommend. […] but, most important of al… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The role of central banks in a globalised economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-21 | 0.072 | third, the rapid growth that we are seeing at the global level, and highly significant transformations which are both the cause and effect of this growth at the level of each of the economies, rapid changes of the respective economic weightings of the various continents and of the structure of the global economy all combine as a consequence to make predictions based on past regularities less reliable. consequently, uncertainty tends to increase and economic and financial risks with a weak or very weak probability, but a strong destabilising potential, appear as the inevitable, and in fact, “normal” counterpart to an unprecedented period of economic prosperity. now is not a time to be complacent. fourth, more than ever during a period of accelerated globalisation, central bank credibilit… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Short address in honour of Axel Weber | Period_1 | 2011-05-03 | 0.051 | 1 see the article “axel weber – ein porträt: ‘nicht glück – können!’“, authored by marc neller and marietta kurm-engels, published in the handelsblatt of 16–17 july 2010. 17 sovereign countries and 331 million citizens. this is a situation which has no equivalent in the world. more than ever, the unity of the eurosystem and the unity of the governing council is of the essence. lieber jens, herzlich willkommen im eurosystem! 1 see the article “axel weber – ein porträt: ‘nicht glück – können!’“, authored by marc neller and marietta kurm-engels, published in the handelsblatt of 16–17 july 2010. 17 sovereign countries and 331 million citizens. this is a situation which has no equivalent in the world. more than ever, the unity of the eurosystem and the unity of the governing council is of th… |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.050 | ladies and gentlemen, since the second half of 2008, we have witnessed the deepest economic downturn since world war ii and the fastest deceleration in inflation since the launch of the euro. we have confronted this situation with unprecedented decisions. unprecedented has been the magnitude and size of interest rate cuts. since october 2008, we have reduced key ecb interest rates by 275 basis points. unprecedented has been the scope of liquidity support we offer to the financial system. but central banks alone are not in a position to resolve the current financial crisis. policy makers need to prevent a further deterioration in economic and financial conditions. to this end, resolute action is needed to restructure, recapitalise and consolidate the banking system. to be realistic, the … |
| Lucas Papademos: Five years of the euro - past achievements and future challenges | Period_1 | 2004-05-03 | 0.050 | turmoil in the face of the many adverse shocks that have occurred over recent years, including geopolitical tensions. today we mark “the euro at five”. as i have explained, the accomplishments of those five years are already substantial, and we are ready to face the challenges ahead. let me therefore conclude my speech at this birthday party by saying that we are looking forward to many, many happy returns. thank you very much. |
| Peter Praet: Interview with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2015-11-27 | 0.111 | how can we estimate the impact of the tragic events in paris? i would like first of all to express our profound sympathy for the victims. it’s something that concerns everybody. now when we talk about the possible impact on the economy, in general, we have to take a holistic view. it’s not so much the economy as the geopolitical environment that is impacted by these events. the impact remains to be seen, beyond the tragic events of last week. the main issue is the economic context of such events, which is a rather difficult one, we cannot deny that. it’s difficult because the euro area is still going through the aftermath of a balance sheet recession which started in 2008. as of today, the gdp of the euro area has still not recovered the level it had in 2008. that’s one thing, and the s… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Lithuanian business daily Verslo Zinios | Period_2 | 2014-09-26 | 0.099 | be to these concerns? why does lithuania need to be part of the euro area despite those costs? joining the euro area is not a free lunch: it entails significant obligations, but many benefits at the same time. the obligations are stated very clearly in the treaty and in eu regulations. in this respect, compared with those countries that joined in the first wave of entry, lithuania has the advantage of joining a stronger euro area. the euro area has painfully recognised the flaws in its original design and taken major steps to repair them. there are tougher rules for fiscal policies, stronger oversight of macroeconomic imbalances, a lender of last resort for sovereigns in the form of the european stability mechanism, and there will soon be a sounder and more integrated banking sector tha… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The European Central Bank’s policy in the COVID-19 crisis - a medium-term perspective | Period_2 | 2020-06-11 | 0.089 | supply. as a result, headline inflation is not anticipated to be back on its pre-covid-19 path by 2022 in that scenario, and underlying inflation is also expected to remain subdued in the medium term (see right chart on slide 2). given the unprecedented impact of the crisis on income and consumption, such disinflationary effects are not surprising. but uncertainty around these forecasts is exceptionally large: while measuring economic slack is already a challenge in normal times, it is currently exacerbated by the highly uncertain effects of the crisis on potential output, both in the short and in the medium to long run. in the short run, potential output is severely affected by disruptions in global value chains and social distancing measures, which constrain the full use of capital. t… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Gazeta Wyborcza | Period_2 | 2014-05-26 | 0.080 | crisis phase into a different environment, with the focus shifting from solving the crisis to ensuring stable economic growth and inflation close to 2%. it requires a different approach and different instruments. the developments beyond our eastern border are the big topic of debate in poland at the moment. could the conflict between russia and the ukraine affect europe and its economy in any way? the impact on trade or the financial system has thus far been limited. but this situation does give rise to uncertainty, so it can be regarded as a potential negative factor that could hinder economic growth in europe, and that is part of our risk assessment. what about the strong euro? aren’t you worried it could cause problems for european exporters and hinder the recovery? the ecb doesn’t t… |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary autonomy in a globalised world | Period_2 | 2021-04-27 | 0.071 | towards more ambitious goals as i have made clear, europe has the capacity to overcome the pandemic and its economic consequences. so we face an important decision. we can act as a group of small, open economies, as we did after the global financial crisis, with each country competing to capture external demand. or we can behave how a large economy would, with european and national policymakers working together to raise internal demand through adequate policy stimulus. at this point in time, failure to pursue the latter option – reconnecting to the pre-crisis growth path and restoring healthy inflation levels – would increase the danger of the pandemic causing lasting damage to our economy. three risks stand out. the first risk relates to the record high levels of public and private deb… |
| Christine Lagarde: Remarks on the euro area economy | Period_3 | 2022-03-16 | 0.277 | christine lagarde: remarks on the euro area economy remarks by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the “wirtschaftsgipfel” of welt/axel springer, berlin, 15 march 2022. * * * perhaps more than any other place, berlin embodies europe’s journey from division and war to peace and unity. the city was devastated by fighting in 1945. it was divided by the iron curtain until 1989. but now we see a vibrant city, attracting people from all over europe, living in peace. so it comes as a profound shock to be confronted with a new war in europe, less than 800 kilometres to the east of here. the scenes of dying soldiers and civilians are horrifying. millions of people have been displaced, many of them coming to germany, to berlin. this tragedy is a watershed for europe a… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-03-10 | 0.197 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 10 march 2022. * * * good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. the russian invasion of ukraine is a watershed for europe. the governing council expresses its full support to the people of ukraine. we will ensure smooth liquidity conditions and implement the sanctions decided by the european union and european governments. we will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ecb’s mandate to pursue price stability and to safeguard financial stability. the russia-ukraine war will have a material impact on economic ac… |
| Christine Lagarde: Finding resilience in times of uncertainty | Period_3 | 2022-03-31 | 0.184 | christine lagarde: finding resilience in times of uncertainty speech by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at an event organised by the central bank of cyprus, nicosia, 30 march 2022. * * * constantine p. cavafy’s famous poem “ithaca” starts with the words: “when you set out on your journey to ithaca, pray that the road is long, full of adventure, full of knowledge.” and indeed, these words capture well the story of cyprus in modern times. it is a story full of adventure, with many obstacles along the way. and yet, your people have overcome them all, gaining in knowledge, and emerging stronger and more resilient each time. your nation rebounded after the invasion of 1974 and subsequent partition of the country, using its agility and acumen to become a hub for … |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.182 | 3.2 shielding the european economy from global shocks: monetary and fiscal policy the pandemic and the new economic order generated by the war also pose new challenges for monetary policy. the european economy has been hit by an unprecedented sequence of supply shocks which are pushing up inflation and depressing growth.[27] the exit from the pandemic had already produced a sharp rise in energy and commodity prices. in addition, the emergence of supply bottlenecks had raised the prices of durable goods. now the russian invasion of ukraine is exacerbating each of these individual forces.[28] oil and gas prices will stay higher for longer and remain subject to unprecedented uncertainty. not only is russia one of the world’s largest exporters of these products, but the eu is also the large… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in an uncertain world | Period_3 | 2022-03-17 | 0.171 | for example, russia is the world’s top exporter of palladium, which is a key input for producing catalytic converters and is hard to substitute with other suppliers.2! ukraine produces around 70% of the world’s neon gas, which is critical for the laser lithography process used in semiconductor manufacturing. the euro area is highly dependent on russia for cobalt and vanadium, which are key for the 3d printing, drone and robotics industries. the ecb staff’s latest baseline projections — which include a first assessment of the impact of the war — see inflation, on average, at 5.1% this year. in a more severe scenario produced by our staff, inflation might exceed 7% in 2022.11 the balance of forces over the medium term when faced with a supply shock, the key question for monetary policy is… |
The most representative speeches:
5.13 Topic 13: growth; support; loan; remain; continue
5.13.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | growth | 1 | 0.0347610 | broad money | 1 | 0.9964079 |
| 13 | support | 2 | 0.0167130 | growth friendly | 2 | 0.9963143 |
| 13 | loan | 3 | 0.0156689 | friendly composition | 3 | 0.9954675 |
| 13 | remain | 4 | 0.0153706 | consistent implementation | 4 | 0.9954319 |
| 13 | continue | 5 | 0.0152960 | growth friendly composition | 5 | 0.9946766 |
| 13 | annual | 6 | 0.0138045 | friendly | 6 | 0.9939965 |
| 13 | analysis | 7 | 0.0120892 | composition | 7 | 0.9928978 |
| 13 | policy measure | 8 | 0.0120892 | decisively | 8 | 0.9923774 |
| 13 | monetary policy measure | 9 | 0.0111942 | reap | 9 | 0.9922460 |
| 13 | increase | 10 | 0.0108213 | narrow monetary | 10 | 0.9920039 |
| 13 | measure | 11 | 0.0108213 | narrow monetary aggregate | 11 | 0.9914305 |
| 13 | implementation | 12 | 0.0104484 | implementation | 12 | 0.9909252 |
| 13 | structural | 13 | 0.0097772 | monetary analysis broad | 13 | 0.9908094 |
| 13 | country | 14 | 0.0091060 | analysis broad money | 14 | 0.9908094 |
| 13 | fiscal | 15 | 0.0082857 | annual growth | 15 | 0.9906707 |
5.13.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy in a changing world ¿ commitment, strategy and credibility | Period_1 | 2006-12-07 | 0.066 | 1 see frey and moëc (2006). in a recent study borio and filardo (2006) find that for many euro area countries the global output gap is statistically significant in explaining domestic inflation, while the contribution of the domestic output gap is reduced, especially since the 1990s. for the euro area as a whole, their findings are more ambiguous: the effect of the global output gap is not statistically significant when import prices and oil prices are included in the equations explaining the dynamics of inflation. 2 see ciccarelli and mojon (2006) and borio and filardo (2006). 3 the average annual growth rates of productivity in the us and the euro area during the period 1980-1995 remained fairly stable. |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-08-08 | 0.063 | taking the appropriate medium-term perspective, confirms the underlying strength of money growth. one of the main factors leading to this conclusion is the still high growth of mfi loans to the private sector, which is underpinning the robust nature of monetary growth. the pace, maturity and sectoral composition of bank borrowing suggest that, at the level of the euro area as a whole, the availability of bank credit has, as yet, not been significantly affected by the ongoing financial tensions. higher short-term interest rates and housing market weakness in several parts of the euro area have dampened the growth of household borrowing over the past few years. by contrast, and notwithstanding tighter financing conditions and moderating economic growth, the expansion of bank credit to non… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.053 | wealth of cumulative evidence accruing – from month to month – from the economic and the monetary side. in both cases, the medium-term orientation of its monitoring activity has been preserved. two examples: as regards our economic analysis, when looking at the underlying trend of growth of the european economy, we judged in the second half of last year that we were experiencing a recovery with the trend progressively approaching potential. we judged that the short-term volatility observed in important indicators, including the quarterly growth figure for the fourth quarter of 2005, did not call into question the medium-term growth prospects and therefore the associated gradual increase of risks to price stability. another example can be extracted from our monetary analysis: consistent … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2004-02-25 | 0.048 | turning to the monetary analysis, annual m3 growth has continued to moderate only slowly over recent months. the shift of portfolios away from monetary assets towards longer-term financial assets outside m3 that started during the summer of 2003 has been rather gradual. the low level of interest rates is contributing to the continued strong growth of very liquid assets and may explain the slow pace of portfolio adjustment. at the same time, the increased growth of loans to the private sector reflects the effects of both low interest rates and an improvement in the economic environment. the strong monetary growth observed over the past few years, means that there is significantly more liquidity available in the euro area than needed to finance non-inflationary growth. whether the accumul… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Towards a more integrated Europe - challenges ahead for the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe | Period_1 | 2011-10-24 | 0.046 |
|
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-05-03 | 0.710 | euro area annual hicp inflation increased to 1.3% in march 2018, from 1.1% in february. this reflected mainly higher food price inflation. on the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around 1.5% for the remainder of the year. measures of underlying inflation remain subdued overall. looking ahead, they are expected to rise gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the continuing economic expansion, the corresponding absorption of economic slack and rising wage growth. turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (m3) continues to expand at a robust pace, with an annual growth rate of 4.2% in february 2018, slightly below the narrow range observed since mid-2015. m3 growth continues to reflect the… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2019-06-06 | 0.684 | bank lending conditions and will continue to support access to financing, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises. to sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. in order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute more decisively to raising the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. the implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boos… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-10-29 | 0.664 | euro area annual hicp inflation increased to 2.1% in september 2018, from 2.0% in august, reflecting mainly higher energy and food price inflation. on the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around the current level over the coming months. while measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows. domestic cost pressures are strengthening and broadening amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets. looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year and to increase further over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and rising wage growth. turning to the monetary analy… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-01-25 | 0.661 | euro area annual hicp inflation was 1.4% in december 2017, down from 1.5% in november. this reflected mainly developments in energy prices. looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around current levels in the coming months. for their part, measures of underlying inflation remain subdued – in part owing to special factors – and have yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. yet, looking forward, they are expected to rise gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the continuing economic expansion, the corresponding absorption of economic slack and rising wage growth. turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (m3) continues to expand at a robust pace, with an a… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2017-04-28 | 0.657 | inflation, but also a decline in services price inflation. looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to increase in april and thereafter to hover around current levels until the end of this year. however, as unutilised resources are still weighing on domestic wage and price formation, measures of underlying inflation remain low and are expected to rise only gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the expected continuing economic recovery and the corresponding gradual absorption of slack. turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (m3) continues to expand at a robust pace, with an annual rate of growth of 4.7% in february 2017, after 4.8% in january. as in previous months, annual growth in m3 was main… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.048 | : credit standards, loan demand and bank loan growth to euro area firms (lhs: net percentages, rhs: quarterly growth rates in percentages) ecb (bsi and bls). notes: positive bars indicate a net easing of credit standards (yellow) and a net increase in loan demand (red). the blue line shows the two-quarter moving average of loan growth to euro area non-financial corporations. net percentages for credit standards are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “tightened considerably” and “tightened somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “eased somewhat” and “eased considerably”. net percentages for demand for loans are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “increased considerably” and “i… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.040 | we have also just entered the second year of the investigation phase of our digital euro project. we are examining key questions about the potential design and distribution of a digital euro, which would be a complement to cash, not a replacement for it. for the eurosystem, the motivation behind the digital euro project is mainly domestic in nature. however, we recognise the benefits of discussing various issues at the international level, such as cross-currency payments made in retail central bank digital currency (cbdc) and the potential effects of giving foreign users access to domestic retail cbdc under specific conditions. in this regard, international cooperation on digital currencies will remain essential. 4/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Isabel Schnabel: Looking through higher energy prices? Monetary policy and the green transition | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.039 | it includes a recommendation to significantly strengthen the ets and widen its scope, which currently covers only around 40% of the eu’s greenhouse gas emissions. the fit for 55 package also proposes a review of the eu energy taxation directive, with the aim of raising the minimum tax rate for inefficient and polluting fuels, and lowering those for efficient and clean fuels. the second development is the ongoing transformation in financial markets. sustainable investment is no longer a “nice to have” policy but has become an essential ingredient in most investor portfolios. many institutional investors have started to materially reduce their exposures to fossil fuel energy producers and have redirected capital to more environmentally acceptable low-carbon alternatives. ecb analysis show… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-09-26 | 0.034 | the outlook for the euro area economy the euro area economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2022, mainly owing to strong consumer spending on services as the economy reopened. economies with large tourism sectors benefited especially, as people travelled more over the summer. the still robust labour market also continued to support economic activity. notwithstanding this, we expect activity to slow substantially in the coming quarters. there are four main reasons behind this. first, high inflation is dampening spending and production throughout the economy, and these headwinds are reinforced by gas supply disruptions. second, the strong demand for services that came with the reopening of the economy is losing steam. third, the weakening in global demand, also in the contex… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.033 | schnabel, i. (2022), “the globalisation of inflation”, speech at a conference organised by the österreichische vereinigung für finanzanalyse und asset management, vienna, 11 may. 15. jordà et al. (2022), “wage growth when inflation is high”, frbsf economic letter 2022-25, 6 september; and carstens, a. (2022), “the return of inflation”, speech at the international center for monetary and banking studies, geneva, 5 april. 16. overall, however, only around 3% of private sector workers in the euro area have their wages and minimum wages automatically indexed to inflation. see koester, g. and grapow, h. (2021), “the prevalence of private sector wage indexation in the euro area and its potential role for the impact of inflation on wages”, published as part of the ecb economic bulletin, issue … |
The most representative speeches:
5.14 Topic 14: stability; price stability; maintain; maintain price; maintain price stability
5.14.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | stability | 1 | 0.1978775 | maintain price stability | 1 | 0.9996933 |
| 14 | price stability | 2 | 0.1612133 | maintain price | 2 | 0.9996057 |
| 14 | maintain | 3 | 0.0585366 | primary | 3 | 0.9991239 |
| 14 | maintain price | 4 | 0.0427273 | primary objective | 4 | 0.9991236 |
| 14 | maintain price stability | 5 | 0.0427273 | maintain | 5 | 0.9986849 |
| 14 | objective | 6 | 0.0414659 | price stability | 6 | 0.9981574 |
| 14 | primary | 7 | 0.0236383 | stability | 7 | 0.9979809 |
| 14 | mandate | 8 | 0.0196019 | good contribution | 8 | 0.9975871 |
| 14 | primary objective | 9 | 0.0181723 | preserve price stability | 9 | 0.9971505 |
| 14 | achieve | 10 | 0.0164064 | achieve price | 10 | 0.9966647 |
| 14 | contribution | 11 | 0.0118654 | objective | 11 | 0.9964886 |
| 14 | sustainable | 12 | 0.0100995 | safeguard price | 12 | 0.9960931 |
| 14 | contribute | 13 | 0.0098472 | preserve price | 13 | 0.9957931 |
| 14 | employment | 14 | 0.0090063 | achieve price stability | 14 | 0.9957894 |
| 14 | pursue | 15 | 0.0082495 | welfare | 15 | 0.9956631 |
5.14.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr Noyer: Monetary policymaking in the euro area (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 23 Mar 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-03-01 | 0.305 | price stability as the primary objective of the single monetary policy of the eurosystem the treaty establishing the european community clearly states that the primary objective of the single monetary policy shall be to maintain price stability. furthermore, the treaty requires that, without prejudice to the objective of price stability, the eurosystem shall support the general economic policies in the european community with a view to contributing to the objectives of the community. the latter include, inter alia, sustainable and non-inflationary growth and a high level of employment. the treaty therefore establishes a clear sequence of objectives for the monetary policy of the eurosystem, with price stability unambiguously being the sine qua non. such an assignment of tasks to a centr… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.238 | independence, however, requires a clear mandate. the escb has such a mandate. its primary objective is to maintain price stability. without prejudice to the objective of price stability the escb will support the general economic policies in the community. price stability is not an end in itself: it creates the conditions in which other, higher-order, objectives can be reached. in particular, i share the deep concerns about the unacceptably high level of unemployment in europe. the escb will do what it can to contribute to the solution of this problem. by maintaining price stability inflation expectations and interest rates can be kept at a low level. this creates a stability-oriented environment which fosters sustainable growth, a high level of employment, a fair society and better livi… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2006-07-12 | 0.232 | the contribution of monetary policy to economic welfare and stability having explained the more specific and current reasons for the ecb’s recent monetary policy moves, let me now put them in a broader perspective. as you know, the treaty states that, without prejudice to the primary objective of price stability, the eurosystem shall support the general economic policies in the community, aiming at a high level of employment and sustainable and non-inflationary growth. it is sometimes argued that the ecb’s overriding focus on price stability implies that we do not pay sufficient attention to this latter part of our mandate; in other words, that in our policy we do not attach sufficient importance to growth, employment and the welfare of european citizens. i would like to explain to you … |
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.230 | 2.1 the objective of price stability the basis for the strategy is the ecb’s mandate that the primary objective of monetary policy should be to maintain price stability. this mandate, which mirrors the mandates of a very large majority of the eu national central banks before 1998, is enshrined in the maastricht treaty, which was signed by all governments of the european union and ratified by all the parliaments. it is “written in stone”, if you wish. it reflects the well established fact that price stability is a prerequisite for sustainable growth and the creation of employment. price stability preserves and bolsters consumers’ purchasing power, thus supporting consumption. it also enhances the efficacy of the market system in allocating resources. price stability is associated in part… |
| Jürgen Stark: Monetary policy and the euro | Period_1 | 2008-04-16 | 0.210 | the ecb’s mandate the mandate of the ecb is laid down in article 105 of the treaty, which clearly states that the primary objective of the ecb shall be to maintain price stability in the euro area. this specification reflects the fundamental insight that price stability is conducive to sustainable economic growth, job creation, prosperity and social stability. this insight has been established by historical evidence in europe, it has been widely accepted in policy circles and confirmed by a large number of academic studies. why is price stability crucial? • price stability allows people to concentrate on productive activities rather than on strategies to protect their wealth and income against inflation. this is of particular benefit to the weakest groups of society, which have only lim… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.231 |
|
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.177 | and what contribution can the ecb make to more growth? the ecb contribution is to maintain price stability. sustainable growth is possible only with stable prices. we have plenty of instruments to ensure price stability. some of them we have already used, such as forward guidance. and we have shown that we can, if necessary, react quickly. last november, for example, we did not wait. we saw that the inflation path was lower and we acted and, as a result of it, the credibility of our forward guidance became stronger. what we do not see, frankly, is deflation. inflation expectations are firmly anchored in the medium term. |
| Benoît Cœuré: What can monetary policy do about inequality? | Period_2 | 2012-10-18 | 0.171 | price stability and economic stability: the role of ecb measures there is a broader point on the relationship between monetary policy and the fight against poverty, a point that i would like to stress now. social equality is better served by economic stability. a large body of theoretical and applied academic literature and the experience of the past decades indicate that monetary policy’s best contribution to economic stability is to maintain price stability. moreover, credible central banks have a comparative advantage in |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-03-24 | 0.171 | price stability and financial stability let me now turn, as suggested by the econ coordinators, to the interaction between price stability and financial stability. price stability is, as you know, the primary objective of the ecb and the eurosystem. and achieving price stability is a necessary condition for financial stability. clearly, unstable inflation developments can distort a wide variety of macroeconomic and financial fluctuations, to the extent that these distortions become harmful for the economy. for example, unstable inflation developments could complicate pricing of assets and blur the signals from relative asset price adjustments with detrimental effects on resource allocation. |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: How innovative should central banks be? | Period_2 | 2014-12-01 | 0.157 | low inflation rates and the catalogue of measures so what does this mean for the current situation? unanimous monetary policy can and must maintain price stability. no more and no less. we are judged on whether we achieve an average rate of inflation for the euro area as a whole which is in line with our target of below, but close to 2%. the commitment to price stability is symmetrical. that means that the ecb must act exactly the same when the target is undershot for a sustained period as when it is overshot. we take a medium-term view when it comes to achieving our target, because our aim is to ensure price stability over the medium term. at the moment, with an inflation rate of 0.4% for the whole euro area, we are a long way off our target. |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.147 | climate change on the value and the risk profile of these assets to ensure that it does not jeopardise the achievement of our monetary policy objectives. furthermore, without prejudice to our primary goal of safeguarding price stability, a secondary objective of the ecb is to support general economic policies in the eu. these include a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment, in line with the eu’s climate neutrality objectives. this means that if faced with a choice between two policy options that have a comparable impact on price stability, we should choose the option that better supports the secondary objective. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.107 | first, there is no stable, long-run trade-off that monetary policy can exploit to permanently lower unemployment at the expense of modestly higher inflation. hence, the best contribution that central banks can make to growth and welfare is to maintain price stability. |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.104 | macroprudential policy addresses risks to financial stability. our strategy review acknowledges that financial stability is a necessary condition for price stability. with an impaired transmission mechanism in times of financial turmoil, maintaining price stability is not possible. at the same time, monetary policy itself can have implications for financial stability. accommodative monetary policy can reduce credit risk and prevent debt deflation. but it could also trigger excessive risk taking or encourage higher leverage in the financial system. in times of monetary policy tightening, the converse arguments apply. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.092 | the ecb needs to intensify its efforts to support the green transition while governments need to accelerate their efforts to put the economy on a path towards net zero emissions, the drastic change in the macroeconomic and financial environment over the past year also requires central banks to review the scale and scope of their own contribution to the green transition. without prejudice to the ecb’s primary mandate of price stability, we are obliged to support the eu’s general economic policies in line with our secondary objective. we must therefore ensure that all of the ecb’s policies are aligned with the objectives of the paris agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees celsius. |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.088 | circumstances and challenges that we face in the pursuit of price stability. making the strategy concrete let me explain how this can be envisaged in practice with an analogy in construction that may speak more to the minds of a general audience than concepts from the world of monetary theorists and lawyers. very much like price stability ensures a solid foundation to support a well- functioning economy, in construction concrete is the bedrock of any structure: homes, office buildings, bridges, wind and solar power stations, and so on. this bedrock is made up of four simple ingredients: cement, gravel, sand and water. every ingredient plays its part. cement is the key bonding agent that holds the concrete together. it is the gravel and sand that give it its strength and structural integ… |
The most representative speeches:
5.15 Topic 15: pandemic; pepp; support; emergency; purchase
5.15.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | pandemic | 1 | 0.1243129 | pandemic emergency | 1 | 0.9995617 |
| 15 | pepp | 2 | 0.0319853 | pepp | 2 | 0.9993865 |
| 15 | support | 3 | 0.0191720 | pre pandemic | 3 | 0.9989918 |
| 15 | emergency | 4 | 0.0188128 | emergency | 4 | 0.9989484 |
| 15 | purchase | 5 | 0.0156993 | coronavirus | 5 | 0.9988168 |
| 15 | pandemic emergency | 6 | 0.0149808 | pandemic | 6 | 0.9987719 |
| 15 | covid | 7 | 0.0136635 | pandemic emergency purchase | 7 | 0.9985971 |
| 15 | pre | 8 | 0.0129450 | emergency purchase programme | 8 | 0.9982906 |
| 15 | impact | 9 | 0.0127055 | emergency purchase | 9 | 0.9982031 |
| 15 | path | 10 | 0.0124660 | covid | 10 | 0.9977206 |
| 15 | coronavirus | 11 | 0.0122265 | envelope | 11 | 0.9971945 |
| 15 | pre pandemic | 12 | 0.0122265 | pandemic shock | 12 | 0.9971939 |
| 15 | remain | 13 | 0.0121068 | containment | 13 | 0.9970646 |
| 15 | recovery | 14 | 0.0116278 | containment measure | 14 | 0.9967566 |
| 15 | pandemic emergency purchase | 15 | 0.0105500 | pandemic level | 15 | 0.9967122 |
5.15.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The US economy, the euro area economy, and their central banks | Period_1 | 2007-12-10 | 0.030 | months. since 2003, six ecb staff members have spent a total of 40 months at the federal reserve board and district banks as part of the ecb’s external work experience programme. and i do not mention here the many many relationships that are established between the national central banks of the eurosystem and the federal reserve system. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The euro area and its monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-09-11 | 0.027 | ladies and gentlemen, television dramas tend to be made about medical rescue teams, hospital emergency rooms and heart surgeons, not about the internists who regularly take your blood pressure and check your cholesterol. a central bank has one emergency room which – sporadically – tackles casualties of car accidents and applies angioplasty and bypass surgery. these are, for example, the exceptional decisions on the refinancing on the money market to help it normalize its functioning. but these activities – critical as they are to the functioning of the system – make up a small fraction of their duties. central banks are for the most part made up of legions of internists who stare at your x-rays and engage in sober consultations. at the end, they write diagnostic statements based on regu… |
| Jürgen Stark: The ECB’s monetary policy - preserving price stability in times of financial distress | Period_1 | 2009-09-08 | 0.026 | the fiscal factor a discussion of the unwinding of the measures implemented during this crisis would not be complete without a few words on fiscal policy. unsustainable fiscal policies are an upside risk to price stability in a number of countries because we cannot rule out that debt-burdened governments may in the end resort to monetary financing. this is not an option for governments in the euro area, but high inflation in other countries will also make it more difficult to preserve price stability here. the financial crisis has illustrated clearly that capital markets are wary of countries’ fiscal imbalances and that concerns about fiscal sustainability lead to higher risk premia on sovereign debt. spreads have recently narrowed somewhat, but there is no room for complacency. exit st… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the ECB - sustainable non inflationary growth and financial stability | Period_1 | 2004-05-18 | 0.025 | it should also be noted - when talking about the possible conflict - that besides the interest rate “weapon” central banks have some other tools at their disposal to maintain financial stability. these include payment systems tools, such as standards for risk limitation, or communication tools. ultimately, the crisis management measures of emergency liquidity support together with the co-ordination of private sector solutions can be used by a central bank to contribute to financial stability, even if it does not have supervisory responsibilities. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.023 | overall, numerous estimates suggest a small net dampening impact of globalisation on euro area inflation of 0-0.3 percentage point per annum over the last 5-10 years when taking into account the net impact of disinflationary effects of increased trade openness in the manufacturing sector and strong commodity price increases. on the basis of several accounting methodologies, including aggregate and sectoral analysis, ecb research finds a direct dampening effect of import openness on euro area producer price inflation of 0.1-1.0 percentage point per annum for the manufacturing sector over the period 1996 to 2004. 21 likewise, aggregate data shows a dampening impact on euro area consumer price inflation of 0.05-0.2 percentage point per year on average. 22 |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2020-12-11 | 0.289 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 10 december 2020. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission executive vice-president, mr dombrovskis. while the rebound of economic activity in the third quarter was stronger than expected and the prospects for the roll-out of vaccines are encouraging, the pandemic continues to pose serious risks to public health and to the euro area and global economies. the resur… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-04-23 | 0.285 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 22 april 2021. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of the meeting of the governing council. while the recovery in global demand and the sizeable fiscal stimulus are supporting global and euro area activity, the near-term economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty about the resurgence of the pandemic and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns. persistently high rates of coronavirus (covid-19) infection and the associated extension and tighte… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-01-21 | 0.278 | 21/01/2021 introductory statement to the press conference the purchases under the pepp will be conducted to preserve favourable financing conditions over the pandemic period. we will purchase flexibly according to market conditions and with a view to preventing a tightening of financing conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation. in addition, the flexibility of purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions will continue to support the smooth transmission of monetary policy. if favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the pepp, the envelope need not be used in full. equally, the envelope can be… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_2 | 2020-10-19 | 0.261 | christine lagarde: imfc statement statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the forty-second meeting of the international monetary and financial committee, virtual imf annual meetings, washington dc, 15 october 2020. * * * the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic continues to be a truly global challenge. countries all around the world are facing severe human and economic consequences. in the euro area, we have taken decisive action to mitigate the impact of the crisis, both at the national and european levels. however, a global challenge of this nature also requires global solutions and strong international cooperation. at the global level, it will be crucial not to withdraw the policy support prematurely, including on both the monetary and fiscal sides, a… |
| Philip R. Lane: Macroeconomic policies in the short term and the medium term | Period_2 | 2021-01-27 | 0.258 | pandemic shock. thanks to its scale and flexibility, it both underpins the crucial market stabilisation role of monetary policy (which was urgent in the initial months of the pandemic in the spring and summer of 2020) and is a substantial contributor to the ample monetary accommodation required to counter the negative impact of the pandemic on inflation dynamics. the pepp is a particularly effective and efficient programme for ensuring that the critical middle and long-end segments of the yield curve component of overall financing conditions remain appropriate: the most recent macroeconomic projections suggest that any premature steepening of the yield curve would not be conducive to countering the negative pandemic shock to the projected inflation path. more generally, our commitment t… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-12-17 | 0.218 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 16 december 2021. * * * good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. the euro area economy continues to recover and the labour market is improving, helped by ample policy support. growth is moderating but we expect activity to pick up again strongly in the course of next year. the latest pandemic wave and the omicron variant have prompted some countries to re-introduce tighter restrictions. energy prices have gone up significantly. and in some industries, there are shortages of materials, equipment and labour. these f… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.180 | pmi confidence indicators (diffusion index: 50 = no change) markit. note: the latest observations are for april 2022. turning to the labour market, chart 4 reinforces the message of chart 2: the recovery in the labour market has been asymmetric, with public sector employment above the pre-pandemic level, employment in industry and construction only now reaching the pre-pandemic level and employment in services still below the pre-pandemic level. as indicated in the right panel of chart 4, the distance to the pre-pandemic level is larger for the intensive margin (hours worked per employee) than for the extensive margin (numbers employed). at an aggregate level, the ongoing reduction in the unemployment rate and the recovery in the labour force participation rate underline the overall imp… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.177 | conclusions my overall assessment is that the monetary policy response of the ecb to the pandemic has been a success. our ecb policy package (pepp, revised tltro iii, collateral easing and supervisory measures) preserved favourable financing conditions and enabled the large-scale fiscal response that was crucial to mitigating the economic and financial impact of the pandemic on households and firms. in particular, the pepp has been a proportionate, well-designed and necessary asset purchase programme that fulfilled its dual role of stabilising financial markets and reversing the initial adverse impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path. as recently emphasised by president lagarde, flexibility is a special principle for conducting monetary policy in a monetary union, as we m… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-09-09 | 0.169 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 9 september 2021. * * * good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. the rebound phase in the recovery of the euro area economy is increasingly advanced. output is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic level by the end of the year. with more than 70 per cent of european adults fully vaccinated, the economy has largely reopened, allowing consumers to spend more and companies to increase production. while rising immunity to the coronavirus means that the impact of the pandemic is now less severe, the global spread of the … |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.164 | market-based lift-off dates (date of lift-off; date of observation) bloomberg, refinitiv and ecb calculations. notes: the market-based lift-off date is the date during which the €str forward rate exceeds the current €str rate by at least 10 basis points or 25 basis points. the latest observations are for 18 march 2022. as i described in earlier contributions, the pepp was designed with a dual role.[4] first, alongside the ecb’s other monetary policy instruments, asset purchases were the most important mechanism for delivering the additional monetary accommodation required to support the economic recovery and safeguard price stability in the medium term. second, the flexibility embedded in the pepp – across time, asset classes and jurisdictions – was essential in enabling the ecb to stab… |
The most representative speeches:
5.16 Topic 16: reform; structural; structural reform; growth; market
5.16.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | reform | 1 | 0.1164861 | structural reform | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 16 | structural | 2 | 0.0764551 | reform | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 16 | structural reform | 3 | 0.0570515 | product market | 3 | 0.9985093 |
| 16 | growth | 4 | 0.0357249 | lisbon | 4 | 0.9985084 |
| 16 | market | 5 | 0.0312964 | structural | 5 | 0.9983332 |
| 16 | labour | 6 | 0.0236632 | product | 6 | 0.9974570 |
| 16 | product | 7 | 0.0174283 | growth potential | 7 | 0.9972834 |
| 16 | flexibility | 8 | 0.0163212 | market reform | 8 | 0.9969288 |
| 16 | enhance | 9 | 0.0157385 | flexibility | 9 | 0.9968423 |
| 16 | potential | 10 | 0.0141653 | agendum | 10 | 0.9965818 |
| 16 | employment | 11 | 0.0131747 | labour market reform | 11 | 0.9960491 |
| 16 | improve | 12 | 0.0128251 | lisbon strategy | 12 | 0.9950760 |
| 16 | labour market | 13 | 0.0123589 | enhance | 13 | 0.9945517 |
| 16 | good | 14 | 0.0115431 | competition | 14 | 0.9943828 |
| 16 | competition | 15 | 0.0111353 | lisbon agendum | 15 | 0.9942410 |
5.16.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otmar Issing: The euro and the Lisbon agenda | Period_1 | 2004-06-04 | 0.396 | all agree that stepping up structural reforms in these areas is indispensible for improving the euro area’s unsatisfactory growth potential and its ability to create employment, even more so after the eu has been enlarged to countries that have substantially lower labour costs. the euro area’s insufficient flexibility is manifested in the high rate of unemployment, which amounted to 8.8% in 2003. this reveals shortcomings in the implementation of structural refoms that would improve the use of the euro area’s productive forces and increase their flexibility in response to economic shocks. it is thus crucial that the lisbon agenda’s impetus is maintained, which must manifest itself in increased efforts to reach the agenda’s 2010 targets. there is, however, still a long way to go. for exa… |
| Lucas Papademos: Presentation of the European Central Bank’s Annual Report for 2004 | Period_1 | 2005-04-28 | 0.374 | and refocus priorities on growth and employment”. member states urgently need to promote innovation and human capital formation, establish a regulatory environment which is friendlier for businesses, accelerate market liberalisation and increase labour utilisation and labour market flexibility. against this background, attention must now shift towards implementing the newly refocused lisbon agenda. closing the implementation gap in all member states is essential in order to reap the full benefits of structural reforms in terms of a higher growth potential and a higher employment rate in the medium term, as well as improved consumer and business confidence in the short term. the new governance framework introduced by the european council should support this process by fostering effective… |
| Otmar Issing: The euro and the Lisbon agenda | Period_1 | 2004-06-04 | 0.363 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.325 | structural reforms structural reforms in the countries of the euro area are very important for two reasons in particular. they are necessary in order to enhance the flexibility and resilience of the euro area economy and to increase its growth potential. such structural reforms relate to the markets for goods and services, and the labour market. reforms of the goods and service markets should strengthen competition and accelerate an effective restructuring. an example of successful reform is the telecommunications sector, where liberalisation has enhanced competition, increased the variety of products and lowered prices, to the benefit of consumers. labour market reforms should have two goals: to promote appropriate wage-setting and to facilitate labour mobility – the mobility between s… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic management in a large currency zone like the euro area | Period_1 | 2007-10-08 | 0.324 | evidence suggests that it is still low in the euro area – both across countries and within countries – due to several formal barriers across the euro area. this is in clear contrast to the situation in the united states where labour mobility is considerable and greatly contributes to the adjustment process. hence, more needs to be undertaken to enhance labour mobility in europe including by removing the remaining barriers and by undertaking structural reforms to which i now turn. c) the third principle is the need to monitor closely the implementation of structural reforms. earlier i referred to some factors commonly contributing to inflation and growth differentials, such as the detrimental role played by pervasive price and wage rigidities, excessive labour market regulation and the i… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-12-05 | 0.273 | particular, consolidation measures should be growth-friendly and have a medium-term perspective, so as both to improve public services and minimise the distortionary effects of taxation. at the same time, there is a need to push ahead with product and labour market reforms, in order to improve competitiveness, raise potential growth, generate employment opportunities and foster the adaptability of our economies. we are now at your disposal for questions. |
| Yves Mersch: Ways towards more dynamic growth | Period_2 | 2015-07-22 | 0.245 | structural reforms are vital yet we cannot conceive of monetary policy as being isolated from other policy areas. in short, the more the structural conditions in the member states vary, the more difficult it is to take care of price stability in the whole of the euro area with a single monetary policy. that’s why we don’t tire of talking about structural reforms. this term occurs in around one- third of all the published speeches of the executive board members. by way of comparison, it occurs in only around 2% of speeches given by the federal reserve bank presidents. 2 with our monetary policy we can support economic growth. but it will only have its full effect if the governments of the euro area countries carry out sensible reforms to improve their competitiveness and thus create cond… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-01-13 | 0.241 | comprising a fundamental restatement of the fiscal rules together with the fiscal commitments that euro area governments have made, is an important contribution to ensuring the long-run sustainability of public finances in the euro area countries. the wording of the rules needs to be unambiguous and effective. the further development of the european financial stability tools should make the operation of the european financial stability facility and the european stability mechanism more effective. the swift deployment of these tools is now urgently needed. concerning the involvement of the private sector in financial assistance for indebted countries, we welcome the reaffirmation that the decisions taken on 21 july and 26 and 27 october 2011 concerning greek debt are unique and exception… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-09-06 | 0.238 | and efficiency of public services with minimising distortionary effects of taxation. in terms of economic policies, product market reforms to increase competitiveness will facilitate the creation of new businesses, support the tradable goods sector and foster job creation, while high unemployment rates require decisive structural reforms to reduce rigidities in labour markets and to increase labour demand. i am now at your disposal for questions. |
| Peter Praet: Turn cyclical recovery into a structural recovery | Period_2 | 2016-10-13 | 0.232 | it is therefore imperative that decisive action is taken now in order to propel the on-going cyclical recovery into a structural recovery. long-run growth depends on the efficiency with which resources are allocated, the ease of doing business, the incentives for investment and confidence in public institutions. making strides in these areas requires structural reforms aimed at supporting investment, enhancing productivity and increasing flexibility in the markets for labour, goods and services. structural reforms will go a long way, not only in bolstering the trend of long-run growth but also in reducing the fluctuations around that trend. 6 such reforms are the means of addressing the ongoing adjustment difficulties faced by the economy and of preventing secular stagnation – which is … |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.074 | fiscal support measures to shield the economy from the impact of high energy prices should be temporary, targeted and tailored to preserving incentives to consume less energy. fiscal measures falling short of these principles are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures, which would necessitate a stronger monetary policy response. moreover, in line with the eu’s economic governance framework, fiscal policies should be oriented towards making our economy more productive and gradually bringing down high public debt. policies to enhance the euro area’s supply capacity, especially in the energy sector, can help reduce price pressures in the medium term. to that end, governments should swiftly implement their investment and structural reform plans under the next generation eu programme. t… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.063 | bottlenecks are easing. taken together, these factors are significantly clouding the outlook for the second half of 2022 and beyond. at the same time, economic activity continues to benefit from the reopening of the economy, a strong labour market and fiscal policy support. in particular, the full reopening of the economy is supporting spending in the services sector. as people start to travel again, tourism is expected to help the economy in the third quarter of this year. consumption is being supported by the savings that households built up during the pandemic and by a strong labour market. fiscal policy is helping to cushion the impact of the war in ukraine for those bearing the brunt of higher energy prices. temporary and targeted measures should be tailored so as to limit the risk… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-09-08 | 0.061 | restrictions. over the summer, as people travelled more, countries with large tourism sectors benefited especially. at the same time, businesses suffered from high energy costs and continued supply bottlenecks, although the latter have been gradually easing. while buoyant tourism has been supporting economic growth during the third quarter, we expect the economy to slow down substantially over the remainder of this year. there are four main reasons behind this. first, high inflation is dampening spending and production throughout the economy, and these headwinds are reinforced by gas supply disruptions. second, the strong rebound in demand for services that came with the reopening of the economy will lose steam in the coming months. third, the weakening in global demand, also in the con… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-11-29 | 0.055 | in the current environment of high inflation, fiscal policy needs to be considerate to not add to inflationary pressures. fiscal support should therefore be targeted, tailored and temporary. it should be targeted, so that the size of the fiscal impulse is limited and benefits those who need it most; tailored, so that it does not weaken incentives to cut energy demand; and temporary, so that the fiscal impulse is not maintained longer than strictly necessary. at the same time, governments should pursue fiscal policies that show they are committed to gradually bringing down high public debt ratios. delivering on the ecb’s mandate will create the conditions for strong and sustainable growth with benefits for everyone. yet, achieving price stability is a necessary, but not sufficient condit… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.052 | monthly smooth local projections (see jarociński, m. (2021), “estimating the fed’s unconventional policy shocks”, working paper series, no 2585, ecb, august (revised june 2022)). 20. obstfeld, m. (2022), op. cit. 21. recent analyses show that the euro area lags notably behind the united states in terms of labour market efficiency (although levels for individual euro area countries vary, see chart 1 in sondermann, d. (2018), “towards more resilient economies: the role of well-functioning economic structures”, journal of policy modeling, vol. 40, no 1, pp. 97-117). productivity growth has also generally been lower in the euro area than in the united states for some time (see chart 7 in masuch, k. et al. (eds.) (2018), “structural policies in the euro area”, occasional paper series, no 210… |
The most representative speeches:
5.17 Topic 17: exchange; exchange rate; development; external; account
5.17.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | exchange | 1 | 0.1469371 | exchange | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 17 | exchange rate | 2 | 0.1154757 | exchange rate | 2 | 0.9999124 |
| 17 | development | 3 | 0.0213968 | appreciation | 3 | 0.9980725 |
| 17 | external | 4 | 0.0204805 | euro exchange | 4 | 0.9977196 |
| 17 | account | 5 | 0.0191059 | euro exchange rate | 5 | 0.9977190 |
| 17 | economy | 6 | 0.0181896 | dollar | 6 | 0.9975466 |
| 17 | currency | 7 | 0.0160514 | current account | 7 | 0.9974593 |
| 17 | current | 8 | 0.0154405 | foreign exchange | 8 | 0.9974545 |
| 17 | strong | 9 | 0.0136078 | vis | 9 | 0.9970207 |
| 17 | foreign | 10 | 0.0131497 | foreign | 10 | 0.9968435 |
| 17 | appreciation | 11 | 0.0128442 | external | 11 | 0.9967510 |
| 17 | dollar | 12 | 0.0125388 | surplus | 12 | 0.9965831 |
| 17 | adjustment | 13 | 0.0107060 | exchange rate policy | 13 | 0.9963574 |
| 17 | vis | 14 | 0.0105533 | east | 14 | 0.9963159 |
| 17 | current account | 15 | 0.0100951 | account deficit | 15 | 0.9956094 |
5.17.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation, inflation, imbalances and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-07 | 0.332 | globalisation and external imbalances the two forces i mentioned earlier – rapid growth in large emerging market economies that have become integrated in the world economy combined with the substantial increase in energy and commodity prices – have resulted in large excess savings, especially in east asia and in oil-exporting countries. these excess savings (that is, savings greater than the investment opportunities at home have been channelled to industrial countries, notably the united states, financing its increasing current account deficit, which in 2005 reached a historic record, exceeding usd 800 billion, or around 6.4% of gdp. in the us, the main factors driving the widening of its current account deficit in 2005 were household borrowing and fiscal deficits, while the corporate s… |
| Jürgen Stark: Does the euro area need an economic government? | Period_1 | 2008-01-23 | 0.266 | therefore, exchange rate policy is also one of the key aspects of the current debate about the pros and cons of an economic government. the governance framework of the euro area as regards exchange rate policy is specified in article 111 of the treaty. the treaty authorises the council to conclude formal agreements on an exchange rate system for the euro and to formulate general orientations for exchange rate policy – after consulting the ecb in order to ensure that any decision is consistent with monetary policy’s overriding objective of price stability. thus far, and with good reason, neither of these procedures has been implemented. during the preparations for emu it was decided that the euro would be a freely floating currency and i do not see any convincing arguments in support of … |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Real and nominal convergence ¿ policy challenges | Period_1 | 2007-11-21 | 0.241 |
|
| Mr Erçel discusses the monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 1999-01-08 | 0.195 | eleven of the 15 countries in the european monetary system will link their domestic currencies to the euro by january 1, 1999. they will stop issuing their own currencies three years later. there will no longer be independent domestic monetary and exchange rate policies. instead, monetary and exchange rate policies will reflect the needs of the euro region as a whole, as determined by the european central bank. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Adoption of the European Parliament resolution on the ECB’s 2009 Annual Report | Period_1 | 2010-11-29 | 0.180 | of the advanced economies is in the interest of the united states, of europe and of the entire international community. on the other hand, the second topic concerns the currencies of emerging market economies which have current account surpluses and exchange rates that are not sufficiently flexible. on this issue, the international community agrees – and it was restated in korea last week – that moving towards more market-determined exchange rate systems, enhancing exchange rate stability to reflect underlying economic fundamentals, and refraining from competitive devaluation of currencies, are in the interest of the emerging economies concerned and of the international community. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Le Figaro | Period_2 | 2014-04-10 | 0.166 | what should be done to weaken the euro further? another reason why the euro is at this level vis-à-vis the us dollar is that the euro area has recorded large and growing current account surpluses – [editor’s note: forecast at €286 billion for 2014]. this is new. before, the current account of the euro area was generally balanced. it is not the case that germany, for example, exports too much, as is sometimes argued, but that euro area domestic demand is weak. from this perspective, the best solution is therefore to support domestic demand by investing, and that is also a way of preparing europe for the future! but, these exchange rate issues go beyond just the european framework. |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Il Sole 24 Ore | Period_2 | 2015-03-25 | 0.161 | the fall of the euro has been the most visible consequence of qe. there is a disconnect between the state of the economy and monetary policy, especially in respect of the dollar. will the fed be “patient” about a further rise of the dollar? currencies will reflect fundamentals and that is basically what we have seen. i cannot comment further on the exchange rate movements. from the european point of view, the decline of the effective exchange rate has been relatively modest. |
| Benoît Cœuré: The transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy in standard and non-standard times | Period_2 | 2017-09-14 | 0.160 | on the left-hand side of slide 3 you can see initial evidence to support this claim. ecb staff find that less than half of the euro’s exchange rate variations vis-à-vis the us dollar over the past almost 20 years was purely exogenous.8 more often than not, exchange rates move in response to changes in relative demand, supply or monetary policy. and each of these shocks might entail a different response from domestic prices. this you can see on the right-hand side. what this chart shows you is that there are occasions when euro area core inflation rises, rather than falls, following an exchange rate appreciation – which is entirely at odds with our traditional thinking on the pass-through. perhaps unsurprisingly, this is typically the case when the exchange rate appreciates in response t… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy in standard and non-standard times | Period_2 | 2017-09-14 | 0.153 | of course, this also means that should the contributions of the different shocks driving the exchange rate change over time, then also our assessment of the impact on inflation will have to change – expansion or not. exogenous shocks to the exchange rate, if persistent, can lead to an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions with undesirable consequences for the inflation outlook. as shown on slide 6, the emerging disconnect between the euro’s exchange rate vis-à- vis the us dollar and the long term interest rate differential between the us and germany may suggest that we are entering such a situation. against this background, the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring. the new keynesian is curve in the euro area this br… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy in standard and non-standard times | Period_2 | 2017-09-14 | 0.142 | ball, l., (1998), “policy rules for open economies”, nber working paper no. 6760. bernanke, b. and a. s. blinder (1988), “credit, money, and aggregate demand”, american economic review, vol. 78, no 2, papers and proceedings of the one-hundredth annual meeting of the american economic association, 435–439. bernanke, b. and m. gertler (1995), “inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission”, journal of economic perspectives 9 (fall), 27–48. blattner, t.s. and m. joyce (2016), “net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for qe”, ecb working paper no 1957. blattner, t.s. and j. swarbrick (2017), “monetary policy and cross-border interbank market fragmentation: lessons from the crisis”, mimeo. campa, j.m. and l.s goldberg (2008), “pass-through of e… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.182 | curve brings about an appreciation of the euro.[19] simple correlations between the exchange rate and interest rate expectations suggest that this relation has held up reasonably well historically and more recently in terms of the euro-us dollar bilateral exchange rate as well as in the cross-section of the effective exchange rates of major currencies. ecb model-based decompositions of financial asset price movements across the united states and the euro area point to a prominent role of us monetary policy tightening in driving the increase in euro area yields, the correction in euro area equity markets, and the recent euro depreciation. in fact, us monetary policy spillovers have had at least as much of an impact on euro area asset prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate over the last… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.103 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.101 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.101 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.069 | drivers of the euro-us dollar exchange rate (cumulative changes since january 2022, percentage changes and percentage point contributions) ecb and ecb calculations. notes: a decrease denotes a euro depreciation against the us dollar. the decomposition of exchange rate changes is based on an extended two-country bayesian vector autoregression (bvar) model including ten-year euro area overnight index swap rate, euro area stock price, eur/usd, ten-year euro area overnight index swap-us treasury spread, us stock prices and the relative citi commodities terms-of-trade index in the euro area compared to the united states. an adverse euro area terms-of-trade shock is assumed to depreciate the euro against the dollar, reduce euro area equity prices, and increase euro area yields and yield sprea… |
The most representative speeches:
5.18 Topic 18: debt; government; public; fiscal; finance
5.18.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | debt | 1 | 0.0799342 | ratio | 1 | 0.9990363 |
| 18 | government | 2 | 0.0704619 | public debt | 2 | 0.9990353 |
| 18 | public | 3 | 0.0498597 | debt | 3 | 0.9981568 |
| 18 | fiscal | 4 | 0.0486757 | budget | 4 | 0.9980725 |
| 18 | finance | 5 | 0.0328096 | debt ratio | 5 | 0.9977177 |
| 18 | ratio | 6 | 0.0280735 | revenue | 6 | 0.9973705 |
| 18 | gdp | 7 | 0.0272446 | deficit | 7 | 0.9972823 |
| 18 | country | 8 | 0.0245214 | fiscal stimulus | 8 | 0.9971912 |
| 18 | deficit | 9 | 0.0241661 | automatic | 9 | 0.9971525 |
| 18 | tax | 10 | 0.0223901 | gdp ratio | 10 | 0.9971023 |
| 18 | budget | 11 | 0.0194300 | automatic stabiliser | 11 | 0.9968440 |
| 18 | public debt | 12 | 0.0159963 | stabiliser | 12 | 0.9967574 |
| 18 | sustainability | 13 | 0.0155227 | government debt | 13 | 0.9967550 |
| 18 | public finance | 14 | 0.0130362 | budget deficit | 14 | 0.9966638 |
| 18 | fiscal policy | 15 | 0.0118522 | government | 15 | 0.9966608 |
5.18.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juergen Stark: Contributions of central bank statistics in a global context | Period_1 | 2010-10-25 | 0.327 | it would, of course, be useful to compare productivity developments in a wider range of sectors in the euro area with those of the united states. but this is not yet possible, as quarterly productivity developments are not produced at the same sectoral breakdown in the us. (the us disaggregates only to the non-farm business sector and the manufacturing sector.) the main comparable indicators used for fiscal policy analysis are the general government deficit, expenditure and debt. harmonised deficit figures show strong deficit deterioration in the euro area and in the us for the last two years. these were driven by sharp declines in tax revenues as well as expansionary fiscal policies. japan 6 displayed a deficit between 6 and 8% of gdp for most of the early 2000s as a consequence of the… |
| Jürgen Stark: The global financial crisis and the role of monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-09-26 | 0.314 | lehman brothers. subsequently, financial woes spilled over into the real economy, resulting in recessions in almost all industrialised countries. monetary and fiscal policy countered this with unprecedented vigour. monetary policy responded with very low interest rates and a wide range of non-standard measures. fiscal policy allowed public deficits to widen and set up rescue packages for troubled financial institutions. to a large extent thanks to these measures, economic activity rebounded in 2010. but at the same time, countries that had entered the financial crisis with large public and private debt burdens started to have serious problems accessing sovereign debt markets. in 2011 the tensions in sovereign debt markets intensified further due to increasing concerns about long-term de… |
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.311 | for 2009 and 2010, the european commission estimates the overall fiscal impulse to the euro area economy, as measured by the change in the general government deficit, to be about 4.6% of gdp, 60% of which is due to the automatic stabilisers. while the recent coordinated fiscal loosening has been broadly accepted as a legitimate and necessary step in the short run, given the exceptional economic circumstances, it also entails a significant fiscal burden. the latest available economic forecasts (ec spring 2009 economic forecasts) point to dramatic developments in euro area public finances. in addition to a rapidly deteriorating general government deficit, which is expected to be above 6% of euro area gdp in 2010, the euro area debt ratio will increase by about 15 percentage points to abov… |
| Jürgen Stark: Central banking after the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-02-23 | 0.288 | crisis output and correspondingly lower post-crisis tax revenues, pre-crisis spending levels are no longer affordable. secondly, government debt-to-gdp ratios are now much higher than before the crisis and the guarantees provided to the financial sector have added to the potential liabilities [slide 7: government debt – advanced economies]. thirdly, over the next two to three decades, governments face rising costs related to ageing populations. due to the combination of these factors, questions are not surprisingly being asked about the ability of some governments to bring their public finances onto a sustainable path over the medium term. 9 reflecting this problem, the latest round of the financial crisis since early may 2010 was triggered by concerns about the current and future state… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Economic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic (why) are they different? | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.282 | 3.2 comparing the importance of automatic stabilisers and discretionary policies in the euro area and in the united states if we compare budget policy on the two sides of the atlantic, we see that the automatic 17 stabilisers play a more important role in the euro area. first of all, the greater the percentage of government spending over gdp, the greater the budget position’s response to fluctuations in economic activity. automatic stabilisers are smaller in the united states, where government is smaller in relative terms (government 18 spending is worth 37% of gdp, whereas it tops the 45% mark in the euro area countries). furthermore, the level of government welfare services (including unemployment insurance, social security and welfare services, and senior citizens’ assistance insuran… |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary autonomy in a globalised world | Period_2 | 2021-04-27 | 0.225 | points. this is equivalent to firms and households taking on €900 billion in extra debt at a time when debt needs to be reduced.[25] that could depress investment and consumption and further reduce inflation. for governments, a similar exercise implies a 5 percentage point increase in the public debt ratio compared with the baseline over five years, and a 10 percentage point increase over ten years.[26] and for countries facing debt-to-gdp ratios of around 150%, ten years of inflation undershooting could increase their debt ratio by approximately 15 percentage points. this is the opposite of what we need at a time when interest rates are near the lower bound and fiscal policy is a transmission channel of monetary policy. the second risk comes from the inequality that will likely result … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-05-03 | 0.207 | with regard to fiscal policies, the spring 2013 deficit and debt data notifications by euro area countries indicate that the average government deficit declined from 4.2% of gdp in 2011 to 3.7% in 2012. over the same period, the average government debt rose from 87.3% to 90.6% of gdp. in order to bring debt ratios back on a downward path, euro area countries should not unravel their efforts to reduce government budget deficits and continue, where needed, to take legislative action or otherwise promptly implement structural reforms, in such a way as to mutually reinforce fiscal sustainability and economic growth potential. such structural reforms should target improvements in competitiveness and adjustment capacities, as well as aim to increase sustainable growth and employment. we are n… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-11-08 | 0.195 | as regards fiscal policies, the euro area budget deficit is projected to decline further from 3.1% of gdp in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014, according to the european commission’s autumn 2013 economic forecast. at the same time, the euro area government debt ratio is expected to rise from 95.5% of gdp in 2013 to 95.9% in 2014. in order to put high public debt ratios on a downward path, governments should not unravel their efforts to reduce deficits and sustain fiscal adjustment over the medium term. the composition of fiscal consolidation should be geared towards growth-friendly measures which have a medium-term perspective and combine improving the quality and efficiency of public services with minimising distortionary effects of taxation. governments must also decisively strengthen efforts to i… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Le Parisien | Period_2 | 2017-02-09 | 0.182 | the question the french ought to be asking is: would increasing public debt that is close to 100% of gdp create more economic activity? i don’t believe it would. it is difficult to explain that the 3% deficit is a straightjacket when france has not respected the criterion once since 2007. in your view, what would happen if france exited the euro, as the front national is proposing? that’s not a scenario i want to contemplate as it’s not what the french want. when asked if they think the euro is a good thing, the answer is an unambiguous “yes”. according to the eurobarometer, a survey carried out twice a year for the european commission, public support for the euro last december was 70% in the euro area and 68% in france. but if you do pursue that thought, leaving the euro would mean tak… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.146 | but you received a lot of criticism shortly afterwards, particularly in germany, when you announced the omt programme, under which the ecb can theoretically purchase unlimited euro area government bonds under certain conditions. it was said that, in doing so, you would be carrying out monetary financing, which is prohibited. omts were not designed to finance government budget deficits, but, in support of our mandate of maintaining price stability, to remove the risk of a break-up of the euro area. we took a lot of precautions when designing omt that demonstrate that the programme has nothing to do with monetary financing. for example, we would only buy on the secondary market; only buy bonds with short maturities and not necessarily keep the bonds until maturity. but the most important … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.200 | however, an inflation increase due to a supply-side shock cannot be expected to significantly alleviate the debt burden over the medium term. ecb staff simulations show that the resulting decline in real growth, higher interest payments and deteriorating primary deficits would increase public debt ratios over longer horizons (slide 11, right-hand chart). rising interest rates as a result of tighter monetary policy or higher public debt lift up the interest rate- growth differential for a given rate of potential growth. the negative interest rate-growth differential before the pandemic helped to contain, or even reduce, debt-to-gdp ratios. the differential still stands near historic lows but is about to become less favourable (slide 12, left-hand chart). against this backdrop, current ci… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.173 | sound fiscal policy helps to anchor inflation expectations sound fiscal policy is also a key factor for stabilising debt dynamics. the fiscal support measures taken during the pandemic resulted in a sharp increase in public debt ratios, which were already elevated before the pandemic started. euro area public debt as a ratio to gdp has increased by around 20 percentage points from 2007 to 2019, and by around another 10 percentage points by 2021. initially, higher inflation had a beneficial effect on debt-to-gdp ratios, due to a temporary windfall from the boost in nominal growth (slide 11, left-hand side).[15] |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.106 | academic research points to the need for monetary and fiscal policy to work together in times of crisis. this runs contrary to previous wisdom suggesting fiscal policy should mainly support economic outcomes by playing the role of an “automatic stabiliser.” for example, in recessions, government expenditure would automatically increase and tax revenue would automatically decrease. it has become evident that strong, discretionary countercyclical fiscal policy is needed in a crisis. furthermore, research shows fiscal policy is particularly effective close to the lower bound of interest rates. in this way, fiscal policy not only effectively stabilises the economy, but also contributes to the ecb’s objective of maintaining price stability. structural fiscal policy 1 could also help raise th… |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.098 | the even transmission of monetary policy the smooth and even transmission of our monetary policy across the euro area is required to preserve the singleness of monetary policy and achieve our mandate of price stability. changes in financing conditions that go beyond the level merited by fundamental factors undermine the achievement of that objective. sovereign bond yields are an important reference point for assessing the transmission of our policy stance because they act as a benchmark for determining the financing conditions for firms and households. it is natural for sovereign yields to differ somewhat across euro area countries, owing to idiosyncratic factors, such as public debt-to-gdp ratios, budget deficits or long-run growth rates. however, at times yields can, and do, rapidly d… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Managing policy trade-offs | Period_3 | 2022-04-13 | 0.078 | by showing resolve, monetary policy can break this dynamic and reduce the trade-off central banks face between stabilising output and inflation. a central bank that is perceived as being committed to protecting its mandate can contain inflation at a lower economic cost, since the expectation that adequate policy action will be taken is itself stabilising. such credibility is vital for the conduct of monetary policy. continuing the path of policy normalisation is therefore the appropriate course of action. the speed of normalisation, in turn, will depend on the economic fallout from the war, the severity of the inflation shock and its persistence. we have stressed the importance of optionality and data dependence in our march governing council decision: we expect to conclude net asset pu… |
The most representative speeches:
5.19 Topic 19: guidance; future; policy rate; path; condition
5.19.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | guidance | 1 | 0.0798916 | guidance | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 19 | future | 2 | 0.0623857 | policy rate | 2 | 0.9992990 |
| 19 | policy rate | 3 | 0.0577175 | future path | 3 | 0.9989476 |
| 19 | path | 4 | 0.0508448 | future policy | 4 | 0.9982031 |
| 19 | condition | 5 | 0.0325609 | sequence | 5 | 0.9979849 |
| 19 | time | 6 | 0.0259476 | path | 6 | 0.9978069 |
| 19 | expectation | 7 | 0.0199826 | key policy | 7 | 0.9973239 |
| 19 | provide | 8 | 0.0176485 | key policy rate | 8 | 0.9969271 |
| 19 | key | 9 | 0.0157034 | future | 9 | 0.9968371 |
| 19 | outlook | 10 | 0.0153144 | rate path | 10 | 0.9967489 |
| 19 | reaction | 11 | 0.0119429 | intention | 11 | 0.9963640 |
| 19 | reduce | 12 | 0.0109055 | conditional | 12 | 0.9962323 |
| 19 | future path | 13 | 0.0101275 | rate expectation | 13 | 0.9961382 |
| 19 | sequence | 14 | 0.0099978 | reaction | 14 | 0.9947310 |
| 19 | horizon | 15 | 0.0098681 | option | 15 | 0.9940421 |
5.19.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.270 | with those of the central bank. 2 however, at a practical level, there are serious concerns about the feasibility and desirability of announcing a specific likely future path of policy rates. 3 in a world of uncertainty – and the current period of heightened uncertainty and financial market volatility offers a characteristic example – providing markets with a likely future path of policy rates, particularly beyond the short term, may entail a number of risks that may ultimately undermine the initial intention to further reduce financial market and aggregate output volatility. let me highlight some factors and risks that raise doubts about the feasibility and desirability of announcing, as a general rule, the likely future path of policy rates: • the first factor is the uncertainty faced… |
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.220 | misinterpreted as a quasi-promise or commitment and could lead to a disorderly adjustment of interest-rate expectations. • fourth, another problem is the potential effect on the central bank’s credibility if its communication of future policy rates often deviates from the subsequent actual path of interest rates. in this respect, policy-makers may also be concerned that frequent revisions of a previously announced policy path may weaken the public’s confidence in their forecasting ability or in their commitment to follow through. in particular, policy-makers may hesitate to reverse the direction of such a path, e.g. from an accommodative to a restrictive stance and this could lead to the implementation of a policy path that does not take fully into account new, incoming information and … |
| Lucas Papademos: Central banks in the 21st century | Period_1 | 2006-06-13 | 0.219 | let me elaborate on some of the risks. first, the general public may fail to fully understand that a pre- announced path of future policy rates is conditional and that changes in the state of the economy will require changes to this policy path. eventual deviations from the previously projected policy path may therefore be viewed, at least by many who are not experts in monetary economics, as a failure of the central bank to follow its announced intentions. this could damage its credibility, even if it is conducting policy in an optimal manner. second, the central bank is often faced with a high degree of uncertainty, including “knightian” uncertainty, about the functioning of the economy and the response of economic agents to shocks and policy actions. under such circumstances, it is d… |
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.139 |
|
| Otmar Issing: The ECB and the euro - the first five years | Period_1 | 2004-05-21 | 0.136 | in addition, the construction and publication of central bank forecasts can raise a whole number of problems which severely limit the relevance of such forecasts for monetary policy. one of the main problems lies in constructing a forecast which is consistent with the underlying interest rate path. exogenous assumptions with regard to the interest rate path - such as assuming constant interest rates - typically lead to instabilities or indeterminacy.16 at the same time, bringing exogenous assumptions on the interest rate policy into line with the expectations of economic agents underlying these forecasts in a credible and convincing way constitutes a considerable challenge in practice. the aforementioned simulation of alternative interest rate paths is thus barely practicable. an altern… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.315 | forward guidance initially expressed in qualitative terms, the ecb’s rate guidance has evolved over time, with the current formulation made explicitly conditional on a set of criteria regarding the inflation outlook. the cross-country experience with forward guidance indicates that its effectiveness can differ considerably depending on the type of conditionality attached to the policy rate path. in particular, time-based guidance provided over relatively short horizons appears to be rather ineffective in reducing market uncertainty.[9] conversely, the evidence indicates that rate forward guidance over long horizons, or state-based guidance, is more effective in reducing the sensitivity of asset prices to macroeconomic news. |
| Peter Praet: Forward guidance and the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2013-08-07 | 0.214 | two examples of forward guidance in one way or another, various forms of indications – more delphic in nature – about the conditional direction of policy have implicitly been part of central bank communication for a while, increasingly so since the mid of the 1990s. around that time, a small number of central banks pioneered the publication of numerical forecasts for the future path of their policy rates. for example, since 1997, the reserve bank of new zealand (rbnz) has provided a numerical projection of future policy rates. in 2005 the norges bank took such explicit forward guidance a step further by communicating not only a forecast of the short-term interest rate path, but also a confidence interval around it. these two – and many other – examples of explicit forward guidance, once… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The usefulness of forward guidance | Period_2 | 2013-09-30 | 0.210 | but the premium on clear communication is particularly large in extraordinary situations, for example when policy rates are at, or close to, their effective lower bound, or when the normal channels of monetary policy transmission are impaired, or when there is exceptional uncertainty on the state of the economy. such situations occur only seldom. this makes it difficult for private agents to infer the future monetary policy path from past regularities. hence, there is a clear added value in such a situation to making central bank communication more explicit. this explains why many central banks that had previously not used forward guidance adopted this tool in recent times. how does forward guidance work? well, first of all, most central banks have linked forward guidance to their main … |
| Benoît Cœuré: The usefulness of forward guidance | Period_2 | 2013-09-30 | 0.208 | this can be especially valuable at times when upward volatility in financial markets risks creating risk premia along the yield curve, thereby inducing a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation. second, forward guidance can serve to communicate to market participants that the central bank’s policy intentions have changed. most notably, the central bank may try to convince markets that it would keep interest rates low, even if this would imply inflation well above its previous objective, at least temporarily. the promise of higher future inflation, if credible, induces private agents to substitute future for current consumption, hence providing additional stimulus today. this type of forward guidance is closer to the academic concept of forward guidance in the strict sense – as di… |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.198 | in line with our forward guidance, market-based expectations of future policy rates and the future path of the app have adjusted in response to changes to the inflation outlook. compared to september 2019, chart 5 shows that the date of the policy rate lift-off implicit in the eonia forward curve – the term structure of expectations for the overnight rate (and associated risk premia) – has shifted from december 2022 to august 2024. similarly, market surveys have shown a similar outward shift for the expected end date of net purchases under the app. through these endogenous market responses, our forward guidance acts as an automatic stabiliser through the adjustment of monetary policy expectations – and hence the entire spectrum of monetary conditions – to changes in the inflation outloo… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.317 | the pandemic measures should be viewed as acting to reinforce the impact of the already-low levels of the key policy rates. moreover, the ecb’s forward guidance about the future setting of its policy measures played a central role in determining the overall monetary stance. in relation to the key policy rates, since september 2019 the forward guidance linked future rate setting to the inflation outlook.[2] the governing council framed its forward guidance on the path of policy rates in terms of a commitment to attaining the inflation target by clarifying that policy rates would be lifted only if the evidence was sufficiently robust to foster a high degree of confidence that the inflation rate would reach two per cent on a durable basis.[3] such state-contingent forward guidance represen… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Asset purchases – from crisis to recovery | Period_3 | 2021-09-23 | 0.148 | function and has thereby helped anchor long-term rates at current low levels by reducing the uncertainty around the future course of monetary policy. in the early stages of a recovery, however, forward guidance cannot fully substitute for asset purchases. therefore, forward guidance and asset purchases should be thought of as both substitutes and complements. they are substitutes in the sense that the main instrument to stabilise long-term yields at levels consistent with the inflation outlook gradually shifts from asset purchases to forward guidance, or from a compression of the term premium to managing the expected future path of short-term interest rates. they are complements in the sense that asset purchases can reinforce forward guidance. they can serve as a powerful commitment dev… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Asset purchases – from crisis to recovery | Period_3 | 2021-09-23 | 0.121 | progressively reducing the quantity of safe government bonds in the market may no longer be welfare-increasing. another argument arises when considering the consolidated balance sheets of the government and the central bank.8 swapping long-term government bonds for overnight central bank reserves results, over time, in a notable shortening of the maturity structure of public liabilities.9 in other words, it de facto counteracts the efforts by governments to lock in current low interest rates with a view to reducing their exposures to potentially higher interest rates in the future. second, the stock of acquired assets ensures no undue or premature decompression of the term premium, even if the effects of portfolio rebalancing diminish. so far during the pandemic, the eurosystem has boug… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right sequence | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.109 | our sequencing is subject to three guideposts. the first is our rate forward guidance, which provides the anchor for the normalisation process. it defines three conditions that need to be satisfied in the view of the governing council for our key policy rates to be raised: first, inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of our projection horizon; second, inflation remaining around 2% durably for the rest of the projection horizon; and, third, realised progress in underlying inflation being consistent with our inflation target. the second guidepost is that we will stop net asset purchases under the app “shortly before” we increase our main policy rates. “shortly before” is a term that is deliberately vague. it does not indicate a pre-defined distance between the end of our net asset p… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The monetary policy non-puzzle in bond markets | Period_3 | 2021-09-15 | 0.101 | first, we want to see inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of our projection horizon and we want it to remain at 2% thereafter. and, second, realised progress in underlying inflation needs to be sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term. in other words, given the significant uncertainty surrounding inflation projections many years out, we want to see clearer signs that inflation is reliably moving towards our 2% target. this will imply a more patient reaction function, consistent with the previous scatterplot analysis, and hence may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target. two additional developments corroborate the view that investors have started internalising our more patient reaction funct… |
The most representative speeches:
5.20 Topic 20: growth; quarter; continue; support; remain
5.20.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | growth | 1 | 0.0386663 | economic expansion | 1 | 0.9976297 |
| 20 | quarter | 2 | 0.0261589 | growth outlook | 2 | 0.9962299 |
| 20 | continue | 3 | 0.0259457 | expansion | 3 | 0.9952540 |
| 20 | support | 4 | 0.0235295 | employment gain | 4 | 0.9950253 |
| 20 | remain | 5 | 0.0230320 | broad base | 5 | 0.9945656 |
| 20 | expansion | 6 | 0.0169205 | solid | 6 | 0.9943903 |
| 20 | increase | 7 | 0.0146464 | mute | 7 | 0.9937701 |
| 20 | outlook | 8 | 0.0130830 | protectionism | 8 | 0.9929841 |
| 20 | rise | 9 | 0.0123724 | private consumption | 9 | 0.9925965 |
| 20 | employment | 10 | 0.0113774 | quarter | 10 | 0.9925886 |
| 20 | underlie | 11 | 0.0111643 | rise wage | 11 | 0.9924740 |
| 20 | policy measure | 12 | 0.0105957 | sentiment | 12 | 0.9915890 |
| 20 | sector | 13 | 0.0104536 | gdp increase | 13 | 0.9914266 |
| 20 | base | 14 | 0.0104536 | underlie inflation | 14 | 0.9913991 |
| 20 | favourable | 15 | 0.0100983 | inflation remain | 15 | 0.9910182 |
5.20.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2006 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-07-13 | 0.114 | economic and monetary issues in 2006 the ecb’s monetary policy continued to anchor medium and long-term inflation expectations at levels consistent with price stability. this reflected the credibility of the ecb in conducting its monetary policy, in full compliance with its primary objective of maintaining price stability over the medium term. the solid anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting sustainable economic growth and job creation in the euro area, in line with article 105 (1) of the ec treaty. in 2006 the euro area economy expanded at the highest growth rate since 2000. notwithstanding the impact of high and volatile oil prices, real gdp rose by 2.9% in 2006, compared with 1.5% in 200… |
| Lucas Papademos: The ECB’s accountability towards the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2010-04-29 | 0.104 | economic developments and monetary policy in 2009 the european central bank performed its functions in an exceptionally challenging environment as the global financial crisis continued to unfold. following the severe intensification of financial market tensions in autumn 2008, euro area real gdp contracted by 4.0% in 2009, largely driven by a sharp decline in exports and in private investment. the decrease in private consumption was relatively contained, although households increased their saving rates substantially. economic activity in the euro area reached a trough in the second quarter of 2009 and has increased at a slow pace since then. the significant macroeconomic stimulus, the measures taken to support the financial system, and the pick-up in global activity have underpinned the… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy and economic prospects in the euro area | Period_1 | 2006-02-08 | 0.065 | years. however, a notable feature of the recent recovery is that the euro area economy has shown resilience to exceptionally strong and continued increases in oil and other energy commodity prices. while oil price increases since 2004 have obviously had a visible dampening impact on euro area growth, the recent impact appears to have been more muted compared to previous episodes of significant oil price increases, particularly those in the mid and late 1970s. various developments may have contributed to the increased resilience of the euro area economy to oil price increases. first, there has been a continued decline in oil dependency over the past few decades, due to sectoral shifts and the substitution of oil by other energy sources. the oil intensity of the euro area, as measured by … |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-04-11 | 0.058 | looking ahead, both domestic and foreign demand are expected to support ongoing real gdp growth in the euro area in 2008, albeit to a lesser extent than during 2007. while moderating, growth in the world economy is expected to remain resilient, benefiting in particular from strong growth in emerging economies. this should continue to support euro area external demand. meanwhile, investment growth in the euro area should provide ongoing support to economic activity, as capacity utilisation is high, profitability has been sustained and there are no significant signs of supply constraints on bank loans. at the same time, as a result of the improved economic conditions and wage moderation, employment and labour force participation have increased significantly and unemployment rates have fal… |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic perspectives and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-09-10 | 0.053 | membership in the emu. in particular, denmark is excluded from the decision-making process in the ecb’s governing council, although the decisions taken in the council obviously impact strongly on the danish economy. recent economic and monetary situation let me now turn to the second part of my speech: reviewing the current economic and monetary situation. the global economy we are currently facing a challenging economic environment. the outlook for the world economy continues to be clouded by several developments: 1. there is the sharp rise in commodity prices. recent modest declines in oil and other commodity prices from the peaks seen in mid-july suggest some moderation in external pressures, provided that these declines are sustained. however oil and food prices remain significantly… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2019-09-12 | 0.394 | today’s decisions were taken in response to the continued shortfall of inflation with respect to our aim. in fact, incoming information since the last governing council meeting indicates a more protracted weakness of the euro area economy, the persistence of prominent downside risks and muted inflationary pressures. this is reflected in the new staff projections, which show a further downgrade of the inflation outlook. at the same time, robust employment growth and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the euro area economy. with today’s comprehensive package of monetary policy decisions, we are providing substantial monetary stimulus to ensure that financial conditions remain very favourable and support the euro area expansion, the ongoing build-up of domestic price p… |
| Mario Draghi: IMFC Statement | Period_2 | 2019-04-29 | 0.389 | mario draghi: imfc statement statement by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, at the thirty-ninth meeting of the international monetary and financial committee, washington dc, 12 april 2019. * * * the euro area economy expanded at a slower pace in 2018, following robust growth in the previous year. the economy grew by 1.9% in year-on-year terms, marking a sizeable moderation in the pace of economic expansion. while there are signs that some of the idiosyncratic domestic factors dampening growth are fading, global headwinds continue to weigh on euro area growth developments. the persistence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, is leaving marks on economic sentiment. at the same time, t… |
| Mario Draghi: IMFC Statement | Period_2 | 2019-10-18 | 0.374 | mario draghi: imfc statement statement by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, at the fortieth meeting of the international monetary and financial committee, washington dc, 18 october 2019. * * * euro area developments and outlook the euro area economy has expanded at a slower pace since the beginning of last year, marking a sizeable moderation in the pace of economic expansion. according to the latest eurostat release, quarterly gdp growth was 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019. this slowdown in growth mainly reflects the prevailing weakness of international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties, which are particularly affecting the euro area manufacturing sector. these developments are also reflected in economic sentiment indicators that have co… |
| Peter Praet: Economic developments in the euro area | Period_2 | 2018-05-17 | 0.373 | peter praet: economic developments in the euro area speech by mr peter praet, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the swiss financial analysts association (sfaa), geneva, 7 may 2018. * * * accompanying slides of this speech. i would like to thank john hutchinson for his support in preparing this speech. after several quarters of higher than expected growth, the latest euro area data point towards some moderation, but remain consistent with a solid and broad-based economic expansion. i would like to thank john hutchinson for his support in preparing this speech. monetary policy measures introduced since 2014 have been central in supporting euro area growth and paving the way for a return of euro area inflation to a rate below, but close to, 2% over the medium t… |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and our monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2019-06-12 | 0.373 | luis de guindos: the euro area economy and our monetary policy stance remarks by mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, during the instituto de empresa (ie) business leadership forum at the ie business school, madrid, 10 june 2019. * * * recent economic developments despite the somewhat better than expected data for the first quarter, in part due to temporary factors, the most recent information indicates that global headwinds continue to weigh on the euro area outlook. in particular, world trade remains subdued due to rising trade tensions and the global growth momentum has slowed somewhat, mainly on account of the weakness in manufacturing. moreover, downside risks have increased on account of the re-escalated trade dispute between the us and china. also, unc… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-02-04 | 0.147 | inflation inflation increased to 5.1 per cent in january, from 5.0 per cent in december 2021. it is likely to remain high in the near term. energy prices continue to be the main reason for the elevated rate of inflation. their direct impact accounted for over half of headline inflation in january and energy costs are also pushing up prices across many sectors. food prices have also increased, owing to seasonal factors, elevated transportation costs and the higher price of fertilisers. in addition, price rises have become more widespread, with the prices of a large number of goods and services having increased markedly. most measures of underlying inflation have risen over recent months, although the role of temporary pandemic factors means that the persistence of these increases remains… |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.140 | the euro area economic outlook over the first half of this year, euro area inflation has continued to rise and has reached undesirably high levels. in june headline inflation rose to 8.6%, another record high, continuing to reflect surging energy and food prices, owing in part to russia’s unjustified invasion of ukraine. but price increases have not been limited to energy and food. in recent months we have seen inflationary pressures broaden and intensify across many goods and services. elevated inflation will remain with us for some time, declining to just above target only at the end of our projection horizon. we expect that moderating energy costs, the easing of supply disruptions related to the pandemic and the normalisation of monetary policy will be conducive to inflation returnin… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.082 | uncertainty about growth that said, these shocks also have implications for growth and, as such, they can weigh on the medium-term inflation outlook. so what are we seeing in this regard? the external supply shocks hitting the euro area are affecting spending. rising import prices represent a terms of trade “tax” which reduces the total income of the economy. households are seeing their real income being squeezed. real wage growth has been negative for two consecutive quarters. and consumer surveys suggest that households are expecting their real income and consumption to decline further over the next year. firms are trying to protect their margins by raising prices, but this uncertain environment is also leading them to delay investment decisions. and sales growth now appears to be dec… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.080 | consumption, investment and government spending eurostat, and ecb projections and calculations. note: the latest observations are for the first quarter of 2022. shows a range of purchasing managers’ index (pmi) confidence indicators. the left panel shows the assessment of the current situation in manufacturing and services. the re-opening of the economy is supporting the continuing improvement in the services sector. although the manufacturing indicator edged down in march, it remained broadly stable in april, so that the overall profile has so far been resilient to the outbreak of the war. however, in the middle panel, we see that this resilience did not hold for export orders, which have declined more than total orders, since the war and the covid wave in china are already affecting t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.075 | monetary policy and the great volatility speech by isabel schnabel, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the jackson hole economic policy symposium organised by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, jackson hole, wyoming jackson hole, 27 august 2022 the great moderation was a period of prosperity and broad macroeconomic stability.[1] the volatility of both inflation and output declined, the length of economic expansions increased, and people in most economies experienced sustained improvements in their standards of living. there is broad agreement that better monetary policy was an important factor behind the great moderation.[2] as central banks took up the fight against spiralling inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, they brought down and stabilised inflation expect… |
The most representative speeches:
5.21 Topic 21: sustain; adjustment; path; remain; accommodation
5.21.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | sustain | 1 | 0.0391061 | accommodation | 1 | 0.9992991 |
| 21 | adjustment | 2 | 0.0378814 | sustain adjustment | 2 | 0.9992986 |
| 21 | path | 3 | 0.0375988 | sustain | 3 | 0.9988597 |
| 21 | remain | 4 | 0.0327941 | monetary accommodation | 4 | 0.9976332 |
| 21 | accommodation | 5 | 0.0274242 | policy accommodation | 5 | 0.9975431 |
| 21 | aim | 6 | 0.0264821 | path | 6 | 0.9971023 |
| 21 | level | 7 | 0.0204528 | adjustment | 7 | 0.9969252 |
| 21 | convergence | 8 | 0.0192281 | monetary policy accommodation | 8 | 0.9964403 |
| 21 | sustain adjustment | 9 | 0.0187570 | inflation aim | 9 | 0.9958374 |
| 21 | close | 10 | 0.0186628 | durable | 10 | 0.9954397 |
| 21 | degree | 11 | 0.0177207 | convergence | 11 | 0.9954331 |
| 21 | continue | 12 | 0.0153655 | aim | 12 | 0.9950774 |
| 21 | time | 13 | 0.0150829 | inflation convergence | 13 | 0.9948960 |
| 21 | purchase | 14 | 0.0145176 | monetary stimulus | 14 | 0.9947333 |
| 21 | condition | 15 | 0.0139523 | patient | 15 | 0.9946856 |
5.21.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.073 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.057 | concluding remarks i am sometimes asked the following “you are in the process of increasing rates. is your judgement that your rates today are significantly lower than they should be? what then is the level of the “neutral rate” that you would judge it appropriate to reach (as rapidly as possible)?” my response to such questions would be the following. first, we are not in a position that we would judge “abnormal”, in the sense that we would have to increase as rapidly as possible our interest rates up to the “normal” level. we are in a process of progressively withdrawing the present degree of monetary accommodation commensurate with the risks to price stability that we perceive, associated in particular with the present development of the economic recovery. to the extent that we never… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.053 | monetary policy having reviewed structures and shocks, i now move on to the third aspect of my discussion of the euro area: monetary policy. did considerations pertaining to the nature of the shocks that occurred in the recent past and to the structural peculiarities of the euro area play any role in positioning the stance of monetary policy? can they go some way towards explaining the observationally moderate path that the policy rate has followed in the euro area? did the smoother path of our policy rate impede a smooth adjustment of the euro area to the shocks that have hit the global economy in the recent past? finally, does low inflation persistence provide reason for complacency? when the ecb in early 2001 initiated the easing cycle that we started to reverse in december last year… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.050 | ruled out, notably in the face of potent shocks. in particular, we might be confronted with new occurrences of risks which could force us to take bold steps that our observers could not have predicted by extrapolating from our past history of policy conduct. to some extent, this is what occurred over the earlier phase of the international economic downturn: we took sizeable risks in the direction of “activism”. what were those risks? first, in an economy as rigid as the euro area, it might well be true that temporary imbalances between demand and potential supply are slow to show through convincingly to inflation. but if and when they finally do, they would be more costly to correct. 13 so, monetary policy should be sufficiently alert to any threats to the outlook for price stability, s… |
| Lucas D Papademos: Challenges for monetary policy in Europe | Period_1 | 2003-11-27 | 0.044 | differently, adequate preparation for future expansions of the euro area will help to make the challenge of heterogeneity more manageable. let me conclude my “movement of the concerto” with a fitting quote from the american writer joshua j. marine: “challenges are what makes life interesting; overcoming them is what makes life meaningful.” in this sense, i see both a very “interesting” and “meaningful” time ahead of us, for the ecb and economic policy makers in the european union. thank you very much for your attention. |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-01-29 | 0.421 | sustained adjustment, if even less supportive monetary policy conditions were to imperil the inflation trajectory. monetary policy will evolve in a data-dependent and time-consistent manner. once the governing council judges that the three criteria for sustained adjustment have been met, net asset purchases will expire, in line with our guidance. from that point in time, the evolution of inflation will remain conditional on reinvestments continuing for an extended period of time and on policy rates remaining at their present levels well past the end of our net asset purchases. the stock of long-duration assets held in our portfolio will continue to put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates well beyond the end of our net purchases. policy rates remaining at their present levels… |
| Peter Praet: Assessment of quantitative easing and challenges of policy normalisation | Period_2 | 2018-03-20 | 0.371 | are becoming more confident that inflation will reach a level of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. nevertheless, from today’s perspective domestic inflation pressures are still subdued and a substantial degree of monetary accommodation remains necessary for price pressures to build up and for inflation to converge sustainably towards our aim. we must be patient, persistent and prudent with our policy. patience is needed because it takes time for underlying inflation dynamics to gain momentum and support a durable convergence of inflation towards our aim. persistence is needed because the recovery in inflation is predicated on a substantial degree of monetary policy accommodation. and prudence is essential because of uncertainties about the transmission of unconventional mone… |
| Yves Mersch: Reflections on monetary policy in the euro area | Period_2 | 2018-05-22 | 0.359 | yves mersch: reflections on monetary policy in the euro area speaking points by mr yves mersch, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the eurofi conference, sofia, 27 april 2018. * * * while the recent flow of data points towards some moderation in the on-going economic expansion, growth is still expected to remain solid and broad based. monetary policy measures introduced since 2014 have been instrumental in supporting euro area growth and employment. underlying inflation continues to be subdued and have yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. at the same time, wages continue to edge higher and should contribute to price pressures. overall, the underlying strength in the euro area economy continues to support our confidence that inflation will… |
| Peter Praet: Economic developments in the euro area | Period_2 | 2018-02-05 | 0.350 | gradually, patience and persistence in our monetary policy remain warranted. in the light of this, the governing council in january maintained all elements of its accommodative monetary policy stance. together, our monetary policy measures will preserve the ample degree of accommodation that remains necessary for inflation pressures to continue to build up and support headline inflation developments over the medium term. looking ahead, monetary policy will evolve in a data-dependent and time-consistent manner. once the governing council judges that the three criteria for sustained adjustment – convergence, confidence and resilience – have been met, net asset purchases will expire, in line with our guidance. from that point in time, the evolution of inflation will remain conditional on r… |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-01-29 | 0.337 | language on the intended horizon of our net asset purchases has reinforced the signalling power of our forward guidance on rates. looking ahead, the question is: how will our monetary policy toolbox evolve in the foreseeable future? monetary policy will evolve in a data-dependent and time-consistent manner. the transition towards a normalisation will begin once we have established that there is a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. our assessment will be based on three criteria for the inflation outlook: convergence, confidence and resilience. first, convergence: headline inflation will have to be on course to reach levels below, but close to, 2% by the end point of a meaningful medium-term horizon. two things are noteworthy here: the salience of our inflation aim and the for… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.106 | derived over time. and this reinforces the case that, for as long as inflation expectations remain anchored, monetary policy should adjust but not overreact.[25] ecb staff projections published in september 2022, which foresee inflation close to 2% at the end of their horizon, are consistent with a withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. but the uncertainty surrounding supply and demand dynamics requires us to remain prudent as regards how far the adjustment needs to go. and we should not ignore the fact that the tightening, which has followed from our decisions since the end of 2021 and from expectations of further adjustments in our stance, is already working its way through the economy – with the usual transmission lags. estimates suggest that this tightening will on average sub… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.103 | policy implications so what does this imply for the ecb’s normalisation process today? subject to incoming data – we are and should remain data-driven – both the economic outlook and the principles i have outlined justify ending net asset purchases and then gradually exiting negative rates. this would allow us to continue to normalise policy by removing the part of our monetary accommodation that is no longer needed today. in particular, negative rates may imply distortions which were only necessary and proportionate when inflation was threatening to be too low over the medium term, relative to our target.the first adjustment is already under way. the ecb has already made two major announcements on asset purchases, first in december last year, and then again in march, when we signalled … |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.103 | various combinations of tools could be used to achieve the desired policy stance. for instance, if we bring net purchases to an end but continue to reinvest the stock of assets purchased, our balance sheet will keep supporting the economy through what is known as the “stock effect”[8], but it will no longer provide additional accommodation. in fact, for technical reasons, the degree of accommodation it provides is likely to decrease over the coming years.[9] so the appropriate stance could in principle involve maintaining a constant stock of assets purchased under our asset purchase programme (app) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (pepp). at the same time, we would be using interest rates to adjust the degree of policy accommodation – so long as this combination of tools remain… |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the short term and in the medium term | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.097 | two per cent not only “well ahead of the end of our projection horizon” but also “durably for the rest of the projection horizon” ensures that interest rate policy will not react to inflation shocks that are expected to fade away before the end of our projection horizon (which will include 2024 in the december round). moreover, the condition that “realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term” serves an important purpose in our analysis of the incoming data: it sharply differentiates between the volatile components of headline inflation and the dynamics of underlying inflation, which is the persistent component that is the best guide to medium-term inflation dynamics. in assessing under… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.095 | consistent with moving gradually, we announced that we will end net asset purchases under our asset purchase programme on 1 july and intend to raise our three key interest rates by 25 basis points at our next meeting on 21 july. but we also announced that we expect to raise the key interest rates again in september, and “if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at the september meeting.” this reflects the optionality principle. if the inflation outlook does not improve, we will have sufficient information to move faster. this commitment is, however, data dependent. this conditional approach to the pace of interest rate adjustment should not be confused with delaying normalisation. as our policy stance rests on a clear reaction… |
The most representative speeches:
5.22 Topic 22: operation; refinance; refinance operation; main; eurosystem
5.22.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | operation | 1 | 0.0861553 | refinance | 1 | 0.9994742 |
| 22 | refinance | 2 | 0.0620449 | main refinance | 2 | 0.9994302 |
| 22 | refinance operation | 3 | 0.0506561 | refinance operation | 3 | 0.9992990 |
| 22 | main | 4 | 0.0301804 | operation | 4 | 0.9990353 |
| 22 | eurosystem | 5 | 0.0254553 | main refinance operation | 5 | 0.9988601 |
| 22 | period | 6 | 0.0224263 | rate tender | 6 | 0.9981140 |
| 22 | decide | 7 | 0.0213359 | allotment | 7 | 0.9980723 |
| 22 | main refinance | 8 | 0.0213359 | tender procedure | 8 | 0.9977190 |
| 22 | term refinance | 9 | 0.0208513 | rate tender procedure | 9 | 0.9972360 |
| 22 | term refinance operation | 10 | 0.0207301 | tender | 10 | 0.9971964 |
| 22 | liquidity | 11 | 0.0204878 | term refinance operation | 11 | 0.9970192 |
| 22 | conduct | 12 | 0.0201243 | term refinance | 12 | 0.9969308 |
| 22 | main refinance operation | 13 | 0.0161261 | maintenance period | 13 | 0.9967983 |
| 22 | procedure | 14 | 0.0128548 | procedure | 14 | 0.9962305 |
| 22 | allotment | 15 | 0.0123702 | bid | 15 | 0.9954837 |
5.22.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The ECB’s accountability towards the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2010-04-29 | 0.361 | we decided to phase out gradually some of the extraordinary liquidity provision measures and scale back the number, frequency and maturity of longer-term refinancing operations. we conducted the last 12-month operation in december 2009 and the last 6-month operation in march 2010. in early march, the governing council decided to return to variable rate tender procedures for the regular three-month longer-term refinancing operations, starting with the operation to be conducted on 28 april 2010. at the same time, we will continue to provide adequate liquidity to the euro area banking system by conducting the main refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as needed and, at least, until october this year, so as to facilitate the provision of cred… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-10-06 | 0.355 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference here in berlin. let me take the opportunity to warmly thank president weidmann for his invitation and kind hospitality. i would also like to express our special gratitude to the staff of the deutsche bundesbank for the excellent organisation of our meeting. let me now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the president of the eurogroup, prime minister juncker, and commissioner rehn. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. inflation has remained elevated and incoming information has confirmed our view that inflation is likely to stay above 2% o… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-07-01 | 0.332 | recent monetary policy operations of the ecb turning to our liquidity management, since march, the ecb has continued to apply basically four liquidity measures to alleviate ongoing tensions in the euro money market. first, the ecb has continued to “frontload” the supply of liquidity over the reserve maintenance period. this means that we have provided more liquidity at the beginning of the maintenance period, while compensating for this by providing less liquidity towards the end of the period. the average supply of liquidity has thus remained unchanged over the entire maintenance period. second, around the end of the first quarter of 2008, when money market tensions were intensifying, the ecb conducted two liquidity-providing fine-tuning operations to address these tensions. the ecb ha… |
| Current economic developments and prospects in Europe, as well as other activities of the Eurosystem (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 20 Jun 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-06-26 | 0.300 | contributing to sustained non-inflationary growth in the euro area. the current level of unemployment in the euro area, despite some decline, is still too high. in this respect, both appropriate wage settlements and structural reforms will be important contributions to continued employment growth and to maintaining low inflation. with a view to fiscal policies in the euro area, it is important that the opportunity of the current economic environment is seized to improve the soundness of public finances. member states should take advantage of the current cyclical position in order to achieve and maintain budgetary positions, which meet the requirements of the stability and growth pact. more ambitious fiscal positions than those targeted in member states’ updated stability programmes shou… |
| Jean Claude-Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-09-11 | 0.274 | first, the ecb continued to frontload the supply of liquidity over the reserve maintenance periods. this was achieved by increasing the allotment amounts in main refinancing operations (mros) at the beginning of the maintenance period while reducing them towards the end of the maintenance period so that the average supply of liquidity remained unchanged over the entire maintenance period. second, the ecb maintained the increased share of longer-term refinancing operations vis- à-vis the share of main refinancing operations, which it had gradually built up since the start of the turbulences. moreover, on 4 september, the ecb decided to renew the supplementary three and six month longer-term refinancing operations that will mature before the end of the year. this will allow the euro area … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-05-03 | 0.287 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. i would like to thank governor makúch for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting, during which we took a number of decisions on key ecb interest rates, liquidity provision and possible ways forward to enhance the provision of credit. the meeting was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr rehn. first, based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the eurosystem by 25 basis points to 0.50% and the rate on the marginal lending facility by … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-11-08 | 0.280 | ladies and gentlemen, i am very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. i will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, during which we took a number of decisions on key ecb interest rates, forward guidance and liquidity provision. first, based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the eurosystem by 25 basis points to 0.25% and the rate on the marginal lending facility by 25 basis points to 0.75%. the rate on the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%. these decisions are in line with our forward guidance of july 2013, given the latest indications of further diminishing underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term, starting from currentl… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.237 | 6 the balance sheet items related to monetary policy operations include: main refinancing operations, longer- term refinancing operations, fine-tuning reverse operations, structural reverse operations, marginal lending facility, credits related to margin calls and securities held for monetary policy purposes. 7 borio, claudio and p. disyatat 2009) “unconventional monetary policies: an appraisal” bis working paper no. 292. 8 goodhart, charles (1995) “central banks and the financial system” mit press. |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.210 | with respect to the tltros, we eliminated the 10 basis point spread over the key policy rates entailed in the initial pricing of the operations. the interest rate in each operation will now be set at the level of the average rate applied in the main refinancing operations over the life of the respective tltro. for banks whose eligible net lending exceeds a benchmark, the rate applied in the tltro iii operation will be lower, and can be as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing over the life of the operation. in addition, the maturity of the operations will be extended from two to three years. |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-06-07 | 0.195 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr rehn. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. while inflation rates are likely to stay above 2% for the remainder of 2012, over the policy-relevant horizon we expect price developments to remain in line with price stability. consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medi… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.101 | change in balance sheets of the eurosystem, the federal reserve and the bank of england since 2019 (cumulative changes relative to january 2020 in terms of percentages of gdp in q4 2019) ecb, federal reserve bank of new york, bank of england, haver analytics and ecb calculations. notes: for the eurosystem asset purchases include all pepp and app purchases. credit operations include all tltros, peltros, mros, and ltros. for the federal reserve asset purchases include all treasury bills, notes, and bonds as well as inflation-protected treasuries and floating-rate treasuries. these also include agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities. credit operations include all repurchase agreements, loans, and operations under the commercial paper funding facility ii, the corporate credit facility,… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.079 | the july 2022 rate hike by 50 basis points and rate changes across money market rates segments bloomberg, mmsr, brokertec/mts and ecb calculations. notes: general collateral (gc) and refers to cash-driven repo transactions and non-general (non-gc) refers to collateral-driven repo transactions. the bars show the difference between the average rate of the period 1-26 july (before the hike) and the period 27 july-19 august (after the hike). for 1-month government bills, the bars show the difference in the respective rate between the average rate of the period 10 – 27 june (before the hike) and the period 27 july – 11 august (after the hike). |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.074 | climate change also has a bearing on the ecb’s own risk management. our monetary policy operations have encompassed asset purchases, which now appear on the eurosystem’s balance sheet. counterparties to our lending operations must pledge assets as collateral against the money they borrow. we need to consider the impact of 2/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-11-29 | 0.069 | in line with its mandate, the ecb is doing its part by ensuring price stability. our third major policy rate increase in october, resulting in a cumulative increase of 200 basis points since july, underscores our commitment to tame inflation. this increase was accompanied by a recalibration for our targeted longer-term refinancing operations (tltros) to reinforce the transmission of our policy rate increases to bank lending conditions and contribute to the normalisation of the eurosystem balance sheet. 2/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.055 | in the strategy review we completed last year, we committed to including climate change considerations in our monetary policy operations. more concretely, we have decided to (i) adjust corporate bond holdings in our monetary policy portfolios, (ii) limit the share of assets issued by non-financial companies with a high carbon footprint that can be pledged as collateral by individual counterparties, (iii) introduce climate-related disclosure requirements in our collateral framework, and (iv) enhance our risk assessment and management. |
The most representative speeches:
5.23 Topic 23: single; currency; single currency; single monetary; single monetary policy
5.23.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | single | 1 | 0.1060119 | single currency | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 23 | currency | 2 | 0.1001502 | single | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 23 | single currency | 3 | 0.0379914 | single monetary | 3 | 0.9996495 |
| 23 | single monetary | 4 | 0.0332287 | single monetary policy | 4 | 0.9994743 |
| 23 | single monetary policy | 5 | 0.0324960 | currency | 5 | 0.9992988 |
| 23 | national | 6 | 0.0321296 | single market | 6 | 0.9988609 |
| 23 | success | 7 | 0.0295651 | success | 7 | 0.9986858 |
| 23 | good | 8 | 0.0243140 | national currency | 8 | 0.9974565 |
| 23 | market | 9 | 0.0218716 | achievement | 9 | 0.9971088 |
| 23 | single market | 10 | 0.0169868 | introduction | 10 | 0.9964925 |
| 23 | introduction | 11 | 0.0156435 | national | 11 | 0.9961362 |
| 23 | benefit | 12 | 0.0134454 | emu | 12 | 0.9960552 |
| 23 | european | 13 | 0.0129569 | stable currency | 13 | 0.9958287 |
| 23 | experience | 14 | 0.0119799 | market interest | 14 | 0.9957064 |
| 23 | emu | 15 | 0.0117357 | single european | 15 | 0.9952578 |
5.23.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries (closing remarks) | Period_1 | 2005-06-21 | 0.283 | concluding remarks ladies and gentlemen, let me make three remarks in conclusion. first, there is no doubt in my mind that the full benefits of the european common market could not be realised without the single currency. i propose to you the simple thought experiment: what would be, today, the us market if we would have had different currencies in california and texas, massachusetts and wyoming? would we call it an “achieved single market”? in that perspective, the single currency offers us all the economic benefits associated with an “achieved single market”. in this respect, as regards interest rates and exchange -rate risk for each particular economy, there are no “winners” and “losers”. it is a “win-win” game …. all economies, without exception, are benefiting from the very low mar… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Two successes of the euro - the single monetary policy and European financial integration | Period_1 | 2006-05-19 | 0.237 | the single monetary policy the introduction of the euro on 1 january 1999 was an event of the greatest historical, institutional and economic significance. seven and a half years on, we can take stock of the considerable successes achieved by the euro, successes of which the european central bank (ecb) is justifiably proud. more importantly, when seeking to perpetuate these successes and, as the euro area enlarges, to extend them to others, we must identify the key principles on which the successes of the single monetary policy rely. to manage the new currency, the ecb created a strategy for the conduct of a single, stability-oriented monetary policy for the entire euro area. in line with its treaty mandate to maintain price stability, the ecb pursues this strategy so as to keep annual … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The process of economic, monetary and financial integration in Europe | Period_1 | 2006-12-04 | 0.230 | central bank, and is still the only one, to convene a monthly press conference on the decisions of the governing council immediately after they are taken. indeed, we devote a lot of time to explaining and discussing our framework and actions. the monthly press conference is a case in point. we also engage in a continuing dialogue with communities such as academics, european institutions and other policy-makers 1 , ecb-watchers, journalists and the public. the high degree of transparency and credibility that we have achieved has in turn helped us to successfully anchor inflation expectations in the euro area and to make monetary policy more effective. the ecb inherited the high level of credibility of the most stable legacy currencies, itself the achievement of many years of successful m… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the euro area and its future | Period_1 | 2008-07-15 | 0.228 | must be an integral part of this economic management. the public’s understanding and acceptance of these elements is also crucial. that is why we always strive to explain what actions we are undertaking, and why. *** ladies and gentlemen, let me now conclude. the past ten momentous years have been rich in achievements. the introduction of the euro has been recognised as a remarkable success. since 1999, the single currency has fully inherited the degree of credibility and confidence that was the privilege of the most credible national currencies prior to the euro. inflation expectations are well anchored, and medium and long-term interest rates in the euro area are at the same low level as the levels observed for the most credible of these former national currencies. we also see a remar… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The euro - five years on | Period_1 | 2004-02-06 | 0.214 | ladies and gentlemen, for five years now, we have had a single currency and a monetary policy conducted by the eurosystem, consisting of the european central bank and the national central banks of the euro area. the introduction of the single european currency has been a historical landmark. the process of preparing for the adoption of the single currency had led to a degree of convergence in the 1990s that many had not thought possible. sceptics were unconvinced as to whether it was possible to establish the euro as a stable currency and to successfully formulate a monetary policy for a diverse currency area. in particular, some observers considered the continuing existence of autonomous national fiscal policies as incompatible with a supranational monetary policy. the “one-size-fits-a… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The future of Europe - building on our strengths | Period_2 | 2013-12-06 | 0.102 | where europe needs to be reinforced yet we know that the central bank does not operate in a vacuum. the ability of the central bank to deliver price stability ultimately depends on other policies being oriented towards stability as well. without this, the benefits of the single market and the single currency are put at risk – we have seen this clearly demonstrated in last few years. the task facing europe today is therefore to secure what we have achieved so far – to ensure that monetary stability is matched by economic and financial stability. this does not require a quantum leap in integration. rather, it requires that we finish what we started in 1999 and put the right framework in place to support emu. let me explain what i mean in more detail. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Le Parisien | Period_2 | 2017-02-09 | 0.087 | benoît cœuré: interview with le parisien interview with mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, and le parisien, conducted by ms séverine cazes and mr boris cassel and published on 7 february 2017. * * * what is your assessment of the euro, product of the maastricht treaty that was signed 25 years ago today? the euro is clearly a success. it has created a strong bond between european citizens. we can only influence world affairs if we are united. the single currency allows medium-sized countries like france to speak as an equal to the united states or china. the euro does not constitute a loss of sovereignty, it is a lever of sovereignty. how has the single currency affected our daily life? the purchasing power of the french people has been protected… |
| Yves Mersch: Asset price inflation and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2020-01-28 | 0.085 | even more noteworthy is the now quite marked divergence between support for the euro and trust in the ecb. prior to the crisis, net support for the euro and net trust in the ecb generally moved in line with one another, with the currency enjoying a level of support around 20 percentage points higher. support for the single currency weathered the crisis fairly well, and now stands at its highest ever level. but the gap between the two measures now stands at 60 percentage points, and has persisted ever since the introduction of unconventional measures, although other country-specific factors might also have played a role. |
| Mario Draghi: Working together for growth in Europe | Period_2 | 2016-09-29 | 0.085 | the need for decisive action at the national and european level this leads me to my final point: policy-makers across the euro area, need to seize the opportunity to deliver reforms. at the height of the crisis, all member states and citizens showed an enormous commitment to keeping the euro area together when the critics were already talking about the euro’s demise. but we cannot stop here: we need to make sure not only that the euro survives, but that our economic and monetary union thrives. if we want to succeed, we will need to find common solutions for the problems that we all face. if we want to preserve the european social model, we will need to bring labour and product markets in line with the realities of the digital and globalised world of the 21st century. if we want savers t… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Economic recovery and the new phase of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2017-11-14 | 0.079 | it is however also true that the present favourable economic environment, should be used to make progress in reinforcing the economic and monetary union resilience. this corresponds to the common interest of countries made closely interdependent by the single currency. reforms at national and eu level will be crucial to improve resilience to shocks, increase growth potential and ultimately restore a path of real economic convergence among member countries. thank you for your attention. |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.070 | after the treaty of rome, the development of the european project contributed to economic growth in the member states for many years: the progressive abolition of customs tariffs favoured specialisation, made it possible to reap the benefits of economies of scale, and stimulated efficiency and competition, with positive effects on employment and welfare. empirical estimates find that without the single market, our real gdp per capita would be around one-fifth lower today.[2] the european economic community subsequently evolved into the european union, becoming an area where europeans work together on a wide set of policies and enjoy freedom and peace. in 1999 we went one step further with emu. this was a logical step to buttress the single market: the euro eliminates exchange rate risk,… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.056 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.040 | we have also just entered the second year of the investigation phase of our digital euro project. we are examining key questions about the potential design and distribution of a digital euro, which would be a complement to cash, not a replacement for it. for the eurosystem, the motivation behind the digital euro project is mainly domestic in nature. however, we recognise the benefits of discussing various issues at the international level, such as cross-currency payments made in retail central bank digital currency (cbdc) and the potential effects of giving foreign users access to domestic retail cbdc under specific conditions. in this regard, international cooperation on digital currencies will remain essential. 4/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Isabel Schnabel: New narratives on monetary policy – the spectre of inflation | Period_3 | 2021-10-12 | 0.040 | governments are actively supporting this transition. as the central bank for the euro area we especially welcome the fiscal policy response at eu level. for the first time since the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008, our monetary policy measures are being adequately supported by fiscal policy at the european level. “next generation eu” is the largest fiscal package that has ever been financed from the eu budget. the countries that were hardest-hit by the pandemic are receiving extensive financial support to accelerate their recovery. financial support is not solely about cushioning the economic and social effects of the crisis. the main aim is to strengthen the growth potential of euro area countries by investing in green and digital technologies – in other words, to count… |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.030 | and sectors in the euro area. it fine-tunes the overall policy mix and complements the single monetary policy in support of overall financial stability across the euro area. despite the overall good resilience of the euro area banking sector, certain countries have in recent years seen a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, notably related to residential real estate prices and growing household and firm indebtedness. some further careful and targeted tightening of macroprudential policy would be beneficial in selected countries at present. given the deteriorated outlook for economic growth, some countries might benefit from further increasing the resilience of their financial sectors before credit risks start materialising. this includes for example taking measures to preserve capital… |
The most representative speeches:
5.24 Topic 24: growth; remain; loan; development; annual
5.24.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | growth | 1 | 0.0393585 | annual growth | 1 | 0.9976323 |
| 24 | remain | 2 | 0.0307132 | monetary expansion | 2 | 0.9976311 |
| 24 | loan | 3 | 0.0184905 | underlie pace | 3 | 0.9974088 |
| 24 | development | 4 | 0.0169254 | annual growth rate | 4 | 0.9972834 |
| 24 | annual | 5 | 0.0168509 | remain broadly | 5 | 0.9945151 |
| 24 | annual growth | 6 | 0.0152113 | term deposit | 6 | 0.9930772 |
| 24 | continue | 7 | 0.0151367 | broadly balance | 7 | 0.9921969 |
| 24 | underlie | 8 | 0.0128263 | growth rate | 8 | 0.9918086 |
| 24 | sector | 9 | 0.0126028 | administer price | 9 | 0.9911417 |
| 24 | growth rate | 10 | 0.0125282 | financial corporation | 10 | 0.9910584 |
| 24 | time | 11 | 0.0120811 | administer | 11 | 0.9909254 |
| 24 | annual growth rate | 12 | 0.0117084 | loan | 12 | 0.9905433 |
| 24 | increase | 13 | 0.0115594 | moderate | 13 | 0.9905432 |
| 24 | pace | 14 | 0.0109631 | remain moderate | 14 | 0.9903433 |
| 24 | pressure | 15 | 0.0108886 | late datum | 15 | 0.9902057 |
5.24.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-04-08 | 0.655 | economic activity in the euro area than currently expected. on the other hand, downside risks relate to the ongoing tensions in some segments of the financial markets that may potentially spill over to the euro area real economy. downside risks also relate to further increases in energy prices, in particular in view of ongoing geopolitical tensions, and to protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. finally, there are potential risks stemming from the economic impact on the euro area and elsewhere of the recent natural and nuclear disaster in japan. with regard to price developments, euro area annual hicp inflation was 2.6% in march 2011, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, after 2.4 % in february. the increase in inflation rates in e… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-05-09 | 0.627 | the ongoing tensions in some segments of the financial markets that may potentially spill over to the euro area real economy. downside risks also relate to further increases in energy prices, particularly in view of ongoing geopolitical tensions in north africa and the middle east, and to protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. finally, there are still potential risks stemming from the economic impact on the euro area and elsewhere of the natural and nuclear disasters in japan. with regard to price developments, euro area annual hicp inflation was 2.8% in april according to eurostat’s flash estimate, after 2.7% in march. the increase in inflation rates during the first four months of 2011 largely reflects higher commodity prices. look… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-07-11 | 0.615 | rates seen over the past few months largely reflect higher energy and commodity prices. looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to stay clearly above 2% over the coming months. upward pressure on inflation, mainly from energy and commodity prices, is also still discernible in the earlier stages of the production process. it remains of paramount importance that the rise in hicp inflation does not translate into second-round effects in price and wage-setting behaviour and lead to broad-based inflationary pressures. inflation expectations must remain firmly anchored in line with the governing council’s aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain on the upside. they relate, in particular, t… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-01-13 | 0.601 | commodity prices, protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. with regard to price developments, euro area annual hicp inflation was 2.2% in december, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, after 1.9% in november. this was somewhat higher than expected and largely reflects higher energy prices. looking ahead to the next few months, inflation rates could temporarily increase further. they are likely to stay slightly above 2%, largely owing to commodity price developments, before moderating again towards the end of the year. overall, we see evidence of short-term upward pressure on overall inflation, stemming largely from global commodity prices. while this has not so far affected our assessment that price developments will remain in line … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-08-09 | 0.598 | momentum of economic growth in the euro area remains in place and continued moderate expansion is expected in the period ahead. euro area exports should continue to be supported by the ongoing expansion in the world economy. in addition, the present level of consumer and business confidence in the euro area supports private sector domestic demand. however, growth dynamics are currently weakened by a number of factors contributing to uncertainty, and activity is expected to be dampened somewhat by the ongoing process of balance sheet adjustment in various regions and sectors. in the governing council’s assessment, the risks to this economic outlook for the euro area remain broadly balanced in an environment of particularly high uncertainty. on the one hand, consumer and business confiden… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-01-21 | 0.337 | developments in loans to the private sector were characterised by moderate lending to non-financial corporations and resilient lending to households. the monthly lending flow to non-financial corporations remained very modest in november, continuing the pattern observed since the end of the summer. at the same time, the annual growth rate remained broadly unchanged, at 6.9 per cent, still reflecting the very strong increase in lending in the first half of the year. the annual growth rate of loans to households remained broadly stable at 3.1 per cent in november, amid a sizeable positive monthly flow. |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-01-13 | 0.310 | 2011, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, after 3.0% in the preceding three months. this decline was expected and reflects a downward base effect stemming from energy prices. inflation rates have been at elevated levels since the end of 2010, mainly driven by higher energy and other commodity prices. looking ahead, they are likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. this pattern reflects the expectation that, in an environment of weaker growth in the euro area and globally, underlying cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest. the governing council continues to view the risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments as broadly balanced. on the upside, the main risks relate to further increases in indirect tax… |
| Peter Praet: Economic recovery in the euro area - the role of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2013-12-16 | 0.195 | signals from the monetary pillar let me now turn to the signals we have received from the monetary pillar. in a nutshell, these signals confirm the subdued medium-term inflation outlook deriving from the economic analysis. while monetary dynamics have been weak, essentially since the onset of the crisis, growth in broad money moderated further in recent months. the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate m3 decreased to 1.4% in october 2013 (or 1.7 % adjusting for one-off effects), which is the latest available data point, from 2.0% in september 2013. this marks a continuation in the deceleration from previous months. after m3 still grew at 2.8% in the second quarter of 2013, the third quarter recorded a significant drop in this growth rate to 2.2%. a key driver of these rece… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.170 | definition of price stability, despite several shocks that euro area economies have been confronted with over this period – most notably the current financial and economic crisis. this is first of all so because the ecb has – from its start – credibly delivered upon its primary mandate, price stability. in fact, by anchoring inflation expectations, a kind of “automatic stabiliser” is implemented. changes in nominal yields induced by monetary policy decisions are reflected into changes in real yields, so as to dampen the destabilising effects of excessive uncertainty, both on financial markets and the real economy. this is true also in normal circumstances, but it is especially important when there are risks of deflation. during the crisis, well anchored inflation expectations helped to … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-02-10 | 0.157 | euro area annual hicp inflation was 2.7% in january 2012, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from december. the average inflation rate for 2011 was 2.7%, mainly driven by higher energy and other commodity prices. looking ahead, inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. this pattern reflects the expectation that, in an environment of weak growth in the euro area and globally, underlying price pressures in the euro area should remain limited. risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain broadly balanced. on the upside, they relate to higher than assumed increases in indirect taxes and administered prices, as well as increases in commodity prices. the main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker tha… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-12-17 | 0.066 | inflation inflation increased further to 4.9 per cent in november. it will remain above two per cent for most of 2022. inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term, but we expect it to decline in the course of next year. the upswing in inflation primarily reflects a sharp rise in prices for fuel, gas and electricity. in november, energy inflation accounted for more than half of headline inflation. demand also continues to outpace constrained supply in certain sectors. the consequences are especially visible in the prices of durable goods and those consumer services that have recently reopened. base effects related to the end of the vat cut in germany are still contributing to higher inflation, but only until the end of the year. there is uncertainty as to how long it will t… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.065 | both credit supply and demand are indicative for future loan growth developments (chart 20). a shift in credit standards tends to lead annual loan growth to firms by about five to six quarters, making loan growth a rather late economic indicator in the transmission of monetary policy compared with survey and market rate indicators. the net tightening of credit standards on loans to firms which we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely translate into a dampening impact on the annual growth rate of loans in the coming quarters. while currently still strong, banks expect loan demand by firms to decrease in the coming quarters, related to weakening economic growth and diminishing frontloading effects, in line with the usual delay in loan growth developments compared to real … |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.057 | panetta, f. (2021), “patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery”, speech at sciences po, 24 november. 8. in the euro area, the pick-up of wage growth has been more moderate and gradual than in the united states. the annual growth rate of compensation per employee is still distorted by the impact of the government measures to prevent job losses during the pandemic. negotiated wage growth, which is less affected by these measures, stood at 2.4% (including volatile one-off payments) in the second quarter of 2022. 9. to be consistent with the 2% inflation target under typical conditions, nominal wage growth should be equal to productivity growth plus 2%, which the september ecb staff projections expect to be the case in 2024. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-10-28 | 0.048 | to sustain the recovery, targeted and coordinated fiscal support should continue to complement monetary policy. this support will also help the economy adjust to the structural changes that are under way. an effective implementation of the next generation eu programme and the “fit for 55” package will contribute to a stronger, greener and more even recovery across euro area countries. inflation inflation increased to 3.4 per cent in september. we expect it to rise further this year. but while the current phase of higher inflation will last longer than originally expected, we expect inflation to decline in the course of next year. the upswing in inflation largely reflects a combination of three factors. first, energy prices – especially for oil, gas and electricity – have risen sharply. … |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.048 |
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The most representative speeches:
5.25 Topic 25: growth; real; gdp; real gdp; gdp growth
5.25.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | growth | 1 | 0.1776235 | gdp growth | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 25 | real | 2 | 0.1113469 | gdp | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 25 | gdp | 3 | 0.1086160 | real gdp | 3 | 0.9995619 |
| 25 | real gdp | 4 | 0.0657620 | real gdp growth | 4 | 0.9994742 |
| 25 | gdp growth | 5 | 0.0593549 | real | 5 | 0.9991234 |
| 25 | real gdp growth | 6 | 0.0467508 | growth rate | 6 | 0.9984229 |
| 25 | quarter | 7 | 0.0340416 | growth | 7 | 0.9983326 |
| 25 | growth rate | 8 | 0.0212274 | quarter | 8 | 0.9976328 |
| 25 | datum | 9 | 0.0133499 | gdp growth rate | 9 | 0.9961802 |
| 25 | positive | 10 | 0.0118794 | major imbalance | 10 | 0.9961351 |
| 25 | period | 11 | 0.0114592 | previous | 11 | 0.9960562 |
| 25 | estimate | 12 | 0.0108290 | employment growth | 12 | 0.9957476 |
| 25 | late | 13 | 0.0107240 | strong growth | 13 | 0.9956603 |
| 25 | economy | 14 | 0.0103039 | positive | 14 | 0.9955234 |
| 25 | average | 15 | 0.0100938 | current assessment | 15 | 0.9952995 |
5.25.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-04-11 | 0.212 | according to eurostat’s second estimate, quarter-on-quarter real gdp growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 was 0.4%, following 0.7% in the previous quarter. the latest information on economic activity also underpins previous expectations of moderate but ongoing growth in the first quarter of 2008. overall, the euro area economy has sound fundamentals and does not suffer from major imbalances. |
| Current issues in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2001-02-12 | 0.182 | the current monetary and economic situation in the euro area let me finally turn to the current monetary and economic situation and its implications for monetary policy. as you are no doubt aware, the ecb has kept interest rates unchanged since the beginning of october last year. this policy reflects the fact that risks to price stability in the medium term have become more balanced over the past few months, although some factors which may pose upward risks still remain. starting with the first pillar of the monetary policy strategy of the ecb, monetary data for december 2000 confirmed the moderation of monetary dynamics, which has been observed since the spring of last year. the three-month average of the annual growth rates of m3, covering the period from october to december, stood at… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy in EMU - views and challenges | Period_1 | 2005-06-29 | 0.161 | inflation and growth differentials among countries in the euro area are moderate … in recent months there has been a renewed interest in the issue of economic differentials between euro area countries. regional differentials in growth and inflation are a standard feature of all large currency areas around the world. in the euro area these differentials are of a similar size to those observed within the united states. let me provide some figures. the degree of inflation dispersion across the euro area countries was characterised by a strong downward trend in the 1980s and 1990s and has broadly stabilised since the inception of the euro. inflation dispersion among the euro area countries (measured as the unweighted standard deviation of annual hicp inflation rates) was around 6 percentage… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The entry of Slovakia into the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-09-24 | 0.152 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-06-14 | 0.146 | summarise information on real estate prices, real investment, real money growth and real credit growth. the data used to construct these synthetic indicator variables correspond to quarterly series for a sample of 17 oecd countries30, covering the period 1970-2003. an asset price boom is defined as a period in which the aggregate real asset price index31 is continuously more than 11% above its trend. each period, the trend32 is recomputed using only the information available up to that period. in this way, the booms are observed as perceive in ‘real time’. overall, 32 asset price boom periods have been identified. asset price booms that were followed by a sharp drop in real gdp growth rates are labelled as high-cost booms while those that were succeeded by a relatively mild slowdown in … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Effectiveness of Monetary Union and the Capital Markets Union | Period_2 | 2017-04-10 | 0.155 | note: the chart summarizes the five-year cumulative contributions of capital markets, credit markets, fiscal tools, and relative prices to the smoothing, in terms of consumption growth, of a 1-standard-deviation shock to gdp growth. each bar thus measures the parts of the shock to country-specific gdp that are absorbed by the respective channels. the remainder is interpreted as the unsmoothed portion of a gdp shock, i.e., the part of a shock to country-specific gdp growth that is reflected into country-specific consumption growth. contributions sum up to 100 percent, and a negative contribution corresponds to dis-smoothing of consumption growth. the respective contributions are estimated over rolling ten-year backward-looking windows, based on annual data and applying the asdrubali and … |
| Peter Praet: Price stability - a sinking will-o’-the-wisp? | Period_2 | 2015-04-17 | 0.150 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.129 | the effect on both financial conditions and the real economy was significant. considering all the measures taken since mid-2014, the overall impact on euro area real gdp growth is estimated to have been between 2.5 and 3 percentage points cumulatively until 2019, and the impact on inflation is estimated to have been between 1.7 and 2 percentage points cumulatively over the same period. |
| Vítor Constâncio: The outlook for the global economy | Period_2 | 2016-05-11 | 0.125 | prospects for the global economy: cyclical developments in the euro area, the overall data points towards a continued moderate recovery, which is nonetheless still subject to fragilities. according to the latest eu commission projections, euro area real gdp is expected to expand by 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year (figures stood at 1.4% for 2016 and 1.7% for 2017, according to the march 2016 ecb staff macroeconomic projections). that said, the euro area’s emergence from the financial crisis has been protracted, particularly when seen from an historical perspective. it was only in the first quarter of this year that it surpassed its pre-crisis peak level of output. in this quarter, the euro area had a higher growth rate than the u.s. or the u.k., which creates a positive dynamics for th… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.124 | ameco database (european commission spring forecast). note: the fiscal stance is approximated by a change in the ratio to gdp of the cyclically adjusted government balance. contributions to euro area real gdp growth (annual gdp growth in percentages; contributions in percentage points) ecb staff calculations based on eurostat data. notes: real gdp growth and demand components in 2019 are from december 2019 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. government balances december 2019 broad macroeconomic projections for the euro area, imf world economic outlook october 2019 for other countries, and ecb staff calculations. notes: the projection for japan is adjusted to include the recently announced fiscal stimulus. it assumes an overall stimulus of jpy 13 trillion, distributed evenly over… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.200 | historical lows.[13] and financial and credit indicators also point to significant downside risks to gdp growth (chart 4).[14] downside risks to euro area real gdp growth lower tail of the distribution of real gdp growth forecasts for q1 and q3 2023 based on “gdp-at-risk” models (quarter-on-quarter change in percentage points) |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.185 | impact of financial tightening on real gdp growth under different quantiles of the distributions ecb calculations. notes: the chart shows the impact of a one standard deviation increase in the euro area composite indicator of systemic stress (ciss) on the one-year ahead annual growth rate of euro area gdp, by gdp decile. the estimates are based on quantile regressions of the one-year ahead gdp growth rate on the ciss index. the estimation is carried out for the period january 1999 to december 2021, based on monthly observations. the shaded area is the 64% confidence interval for the estimates of the coefficients, while the linear model refers to the ordinary least squares estimate. |
| Christine Lagarde: Challenges along Europe’s road | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.143 | 1 1. considering all the measures taken since mid-2014, the overall impact on euro area real gdp growth is estimated to have been between 2.5 and 3 percentage points cumulatively until 2019, and the impact on inflation is estimated to have been between 1.7 and 2 percentage points cumulatively over the same period. 2 2. lagarde, c. (2022), “a new global map: european resilience in a changing world”, keynote speech at the peterson institute for international economics, 22 april. 3 3. lagarde, c. (2022), “monetary policy in an uncertain world”, speech at “the ecb and its watchers xxii” conference, 17 march. 4/4 |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.127 | both credit supply and demand are indicative for future loan growth developments (chart 20). a shift in credit standards tends to lead annual loan growth to firms by about five to six quarters, making loan growth a rather late economic indicator in the transmission of monetary policy compared with survey and market rate indicators. the net tightening of credit standards on loans to firms which we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely translate into a dampening impact on the annual growth rate of loans in the coming quarters. while currently still strong, banks expect loan demand by firms to decrease in the coming quarters, related to weakening economic growth and diminishing frontloading effects, in line with the usual delay in loan growth developments compared to real … |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.102 | economic activity euro area real gdp growth was robust in the first half of 2022, supported by the reopening of economies in the second quarter as pandemic-related restrictions were lifted. however, the outlook has since darkened due to high inflation, waning reopening effects, weakening global demand and falling confidence. these factors are likely to cause a significant slowdown in euro area gdp growth in the second half of the year 1/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
The most representative speeches:
5.26 Topic 26: framework; macroeconomic; maker; policy maker; policy framework
5.26.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | framework | 1 | 0.0932095 | maker | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 26 | macroeconomic | 2 | 0.0668090 | policy maker | 2 | 0.9996495 |
| 26 | maker | 3 | 0.0443037 | policy framework | 3 | 0.9994743 |
| 26 | policy maker | 4 | 0.0419955 | monetary policy framework | 4 | 0.9991238 |
| 26 | policy framework | 5 | 0.0316084 | framework | 5 | 0.9987719 |
| 26 | good | 6 | 0.0304543 | governance | 6 | 0.9984230 |
| 26 | imbalance | 7 | 0.0225197 | macroeconomic policy | 7 | 0.9984225 |
| 26 | monetary policy framework | 8 | 0.0179033 | macroeconomic | 8 | 0.9979815 |
| 26 | exist | 9 | 0.0171819 | surveillance | 9 | 0.9978084 |
| 26 | governance | 10 | 0.0168934 | economic governance | 10 | 0.9975454 |
| 26 | provide | 11 | 0.0142966 | monetary policy maker | 11 | 0.9974119 |
| 26 | require | 12 | 0.0132868 | exist | 12 | 0.9971945 |
| 26 | key | 13 | 0.0128540 | imbalance | 13 | 0.9971933 |
| 26 | macroeconomic policy | 14 | 0.0125655 | macroeconomic environment | 14 | 0.9965809 |
| 26 | element | 15 | 0.0122769 | macroeconomic stability | 15 | 0.9963192 |
5.26.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Reflections on the European Economic and Monetary Union | Period_1 | 2010-11-17 | 0.309 | but complacency would be inappropriate. the european leaders recognise that our economic model is in need of a considerable strengthening. at their meeting in october, the heads of state or government agreed on the reform of the system of economic governance. the proposals put forward by president van rompuy represent a strengthening of the existing framework for fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance. but as i have said before, the governing council of the ecb considers that they do not represent the quantum leap in the economic governance that is needed to be fully commensurate with the monetary union we have created. one key area is surveillance of fiscal policies to prevent excessive deficits and unsustainable public debt. in our view we need shorter deadlines under excessive deficit… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2010-03-24 | 0.220 | policy responses to imbalances one of the main drivers of the financial crisis were the large global external imbalances. these imbalances implied massive capital inflows into deficit countries. those inflows had partly been financed by the issuance of financial instruments, whose value was shattered in the turmoil. the imbalances reflected a lack of medium-term orientation towards stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies in key deficit and surplus economies. the euro area did not contribute to the build-up in global imbalances. its current account has remained close to balance over the years. the crisis has induced a partial reduction in global imbalances, but this correction appears to be largely cyclical. some important structural factors that led to unsustainable imbal… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.182 |
|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2010-11-08 | 0.180 | economies. increasing product market competition, particularly in the services sectors, would also facilitate the restructuring of the economy and encourage innovation and the adoption of new technologies. at their meeting on 28–29 october 2010 the eu heads of state and government agreed on the reform of the european union’s economic governance. the proposals put forward by president van rompuy represent a strengthening of the existing framework for fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance in the european union. however, the governing council considers that they do not go as far as the quantum leap in the economic governance of monetary union that it has been calling for. in particular, the governing council is concerned that there would be insufficient automaticity in the implementation o… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Reflections on the European Economic and Monetary Union | Period_1 | 2010-11-17 | 0.143 | both areas, fiscal and macroeconomic policies, are monitored by the peers, supported mainly by the commission. the eurogroup and ecofin meetings of finance ministers are the fora for such peer monitoring. of course, effective monitoring requires adherence by members to the policy framework, it requires peer pressure and consequences to deal with deviant behaviour and it requires reliable statistics. it is in these areas that the biggest deficiencies have been revealed. fiscal policy conduct has quite often not been in line with the pact, macroeconomic policies have been too loose and peer pressure has been too weak. these problems were visible well before the financial crisis, but the crisis has of course aggravated them, and massively so. i will come back to how we deal with these prob… |
| Jürgen Stark: Globalisation and monetary policy - from virtue to vice? | Period_2 | 2011-11-30 | 0.118 | shock transmission and policy degrees of freedom in a globalised era second, i would argue that globalisation (and in particular financial globalisation) has changed the risk and reward matrix associated with policy failures and successes, respectively. globalisation may be initially more forgiving with policy mistakes on account of higher thresholds of tolerance, for example as regards current account or public debt positions. however – as the crisis has forcefully taught us – by enabling these imbalances to remain unaddressed for longer, the eventual cost of adjustment of unsustainable policies would be higher than would otherwise be the case – and the adjustment may occur in a very swift manner. it is the sudden operation of these centripetal (as opposed to centrifugal) forces of glo… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-07-18 | 0.097 | challenges ahead let me now turn to the challenges that the euro area will face in the years to come. in the last legislative period, a great deal has been done to restore stability as a key prerequisite for economic dynamism. this has resulted in a return of confidence to the euro area. but high public and private debt, low growth and unacceptably high levels of unemployment are reminding us that the most pressing matter now is to bring the euro area back onto a path of shared prosperity. to achieve this, the focus in the next five years should lie on thoroughly implementing the reinforced policy framework that was agreed in the last term, and on further increasing the resilience of euro area countries’ economies. for us at the ecb, this means assuming a new role in the banking union b… |
| Mario Draghi: Plenary debate of the European Parliament on the ECB’s Annual Report 2013 | Period_2 | 2015-03-02 | 0.097 | medium to longer term, we need to move from a system of rules and guidelines for national economic policy making to a system of further sovereignty sharing within common institutions so as to strengthen our economic policy governance. a common rule is only as strong as the common institution that can enforce it. the discussions on the new four presidents’ report will certainly provide a good opportunity to think further on these matters, and i am looking forward to your views in the upcoming berès report on the economic governance framework. thank you for your attention. |
| Peter Praet: Speech on the occasion of the “Annual Danish Top Executive Summit 2013” | Period_2 | 2013-01-30 | 0.091 | conclusion let me conclude with a cautionary tale. innovation is the quintessence of entrepreneurship and a cornerstone for economic growth and prosperity in market-based economies. but there can be innovations that create more problems than the ones they were originally conceived to address. i am reminded of the two mortal sins of economic policy-making that clearly transpire when reading carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff’s excellent book on financial crises: arrogance and ignorance. 8 transposing this insight to the discussion on monetary policy frameworks, i would say that it is dangerously arrogant to believe that one’s current approach to monetary policy is perfect and no improvements or changes will ever be needed. certainly, before the crisis, a certain degree of academic group … |
| Jürgen Stark: Globalisation and monetary policy - from virtue to vice? | Period_2 | 2011-11-30 | 0.090 | monetary union members; and (iii) ensuring that there is an effective governance framework in place which can guard against similar instances from occurring in the future, inter alia through macroeconomic and fiscal surveillance and early correction mechanisms. emerging challenges to monetary policy frameworks third, as regards the challenges for monetary policy looking forward, central banks are likely to be subject to greater peer and public scrutiny in a world of higher interconnectedness. at the same time, however, monetary authorities are also more liable to be burdened with the spillovers resulting from the actions of other parties. crucial challenges in this regard include the risk that monetary policy is overburdened by fiscally dominant regimes caused by government’s irresponsi… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.096 | fiscal support measures to shield the economy from the impact of high energy prices should be temporary, targeted and tailored to preserving incentives to consume less energy. fiscal measures falling short of these principles are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures, which would necessitate a stronger monetary policy response. moreover, in line with the eu’s economic governance framework, fiscal policies should be oriented towards making our economy more productive and gradually bringing down high public debt. policies to enhance the euro area’s supply capacity, especially in the energy sector, can help reduce price pressures in the medium term. to that end, governments should swiftly implement their investment and structural reform plans under the next generation eu programme. t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.054 | at the same time, investors are increasingly challenging the view that the euro area economy will fall back into the vicious circle of low growth and low inflation that characterised the pre-pandemic macroeconomic environment. current forward inflation swap rates indicate that inflation is expected to stabilise at, or close to, our two per cent target over the medium to long term, well above the level that was expected before the pandemic. |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.051 | and enhance risk management practices. this is all part of our action plan to incorporate climate change considerations into our monetary policy framework. just this month, the eurosystem started taking each issuer’s climate score into account for all purchases of corporate bonds in the context of the ongoing reinvestment purchases. tackling climate-related and environmental risks is also one of the ecb’s key supervisory priorities for 2022-24. we have set a strategic objective for banks to proactively incorporate climate-related and environmental risks into their business strategies and their governance and risk management frameworks. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.044 | in terms of supporting demand, our monetary policy will continue to provide the conditions necessary to fuel the recovery. indeed, our forward guidance has already led to a better alignment of rate expectations with our new inflation target, while helping to strengthen inflation expectations, which lowers real interest rates. we expect to see further progress toward an even tighter alignment between |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.043 | a shifting macroeconomic environment yet, these large-scale policy interventions coincided with fundamental structural changes in the global economy. as the recovery of supply was held back by persistent disruptions to global supply chains, labour shortages and social distancing measures, demand started to outpace supply, putting upward pressure on prices. inflationary pressures were then reinforced by russia’s invasion of ukraine, which led to a surge in energy and food prices. over time, inflation broadened substantially, creeping into most goods and services, and pushing up underlying inflation to historically high levels, with no clear signs of reversal so far (slide 3). ecb staff analysis suggests that both demand and supply have made a significant and broadly even contribution to … |
The most representative speeches:
5.27 Topic 27: economy; cycle; business; lead; time
5.27.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | economy | 1 | 0.0541469 | cycle | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 27 | cycle | 2 | 0.0491320 | recession | 2 | 0.9992115 |
| 27 | business | 3 | 0.0433795 | slowdown | 3 | 0.9989486 |
| 27 | lead | 4 | 0.0348245 | business cycle | 4 | 0.9989484 |
| 27 | time | 5 | 0.0333496 | business | 5 | 0.9987727 |
| 27 | recession | 6 | 0.0293671 | tighten | 6 | 0.9986858 |
| 27 | tighten | 7 | 0.0237621 | delay | 7 | 0.9985543 |
| 27 | slowdown | 8 | 0.0227296 | slow | 8 | 0.9976336 |
| 27 | slow | 9 | 0.0224346 | reverse | 9 | 0.9969332 |
| 27 | business cycle | 10 | 0.0171247 | cyclical | 10 | 0.9969330 |
| 27 | start | 11 | 0.0168297 | typically | 11 | 0.9967583 |
| 27 | delay | 12 | 0.0168297 | economic cycle | 12 | 0.9967049 |
| 27 | phase | 13 | 0.0159447 | downturn | 13 | 0.9966264 |
| 27 | cyclical | 14 | 0.0149122 | produce | 14 | 0.9964077 |
| 27 | fact | 15 | 0.0141747 | loosen | 15 | 0.9964023 |
5.27.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.176 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.173 | cukierman and gerlach find support for their theory using data from 22 oecd countries. 13 this hypothesis nevertheless does not seem to be fully convincing for independent central banks. surico (2007), for instance, produced evidence suggesting that the federal reserve exhibited asymmetric preferences only until 1979, with a stronger reaction of the interest rate to output contractions than to output expansions. in discussing his experience as vice-chairman of the fed, alan blinder seems to suggest the opposite: “…in most situations the central bank will take far more political heat when it tightens pre-emptively to avoid higher inflation than when it eases pre-emptively to avoid higher unemployment”. 14 this is also consistent with my own experience. there were many more pressures on t… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Economic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic (why) are they different? | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.134 | years the euro area has been worse hit by “supply shocks” than the united states. a supply shock tends to have an effect on growth with the opposite sign to that of inflation. one example is the decline in total factor productivity (tfp) in the early part of this decade which brought upward pressure to bear on inflation at a time when economic activity was slowing down, as occurred following the bursting of the dot.com bubble. indeed, available evidence seems to suggest that the exacerbation of negative supply shocks is a recurring feature of economic slowdown phases in the euro area. as a result of that phenomenon, inflation in the euro area tends to react to an economic slowdown less rapidly than it does in the united states. this difference may explain why, especially in cyclical slo… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.133 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.123 | let us consider the most recent example of the start of the easing cycle in the fall of 2008. the euro area economy was projected to slow down in the second half of 2008 already for some time. for instance, in the ecb 2008 spring forecast, the euro area gdp growth was projected to fall from 2.7% in 2007 to 1.8% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009. however, in spite of the projected slowdown, inflationary pressures continued to rise until the summer of 2008. headline inflation rose to 4%, on account of strong commodity price pressures. long-term inflation expectations derived from inflation-linked bonds increased in the course of the spring, from levels slightly above 2% to levels above 2.5% in june 2008. shorter term forecasts from consensus, the ecb’s survey of professional forecasters (spf) and … |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency | Period_2 | 2020-11-13 | 0.132 | christine lagarde: monetary policy in a pandemic emergency keynote speech by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank at the ecb forum on central banking (virtual event), frankfurt am main, 11 november 2020. * * * let me begin by welcoming all of you to this year’s ecb forum on central banking. regrettably, we cannot be together in sintra this time, but i trust that this virtual environment will be no less conducive to challenging ideas and productive debate. the purpose of this year’s conference is to examine the challenges facing central banking in a shifting world. we will be discussing many of the long-term trends monetary policy has to contend with, including shifting patterns of globalisation, climate change and a lower natural interest rate. actually, the larg… |
| Peter Praet: Lifting potential growth in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-04-27 | 0.101 | potential growth and monetary policy the euro area economy seems now to be turning the corner. both the hard and soft data suggest that the activity is gathering momentum and looks set to strengthen over the course of this year. consistent with this, all the major forecasting institutions have revised up their expectations for gdp growth in 2015 and the years ahead. we are therefore seeing the beginnings of a cyclical recovery. but it is not yet a structural one. what i mean by this is that, though the business cycle is improving, the notable decline in euro area’s potential growth rate has not been addressed, which can be imagined as the “speed limit” of the economy – the rate at which it can grow while maintaining stable inflation. international institutions currently estimate the pot… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in a pandemic - ensuring favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2020-12-01 | 0.092 | [8] a recent federal reserve study makes further progress towards the construction of counterfactuals that are more realistic when the starting conditions are extremely fragile: see kiley, m. t. (2020), “pandemic recession dynamics: the role of monetary policy in shifting a u-shaped recession to a v-shaped rebound”, finance and economics discussion series 2020- 083, board of governors of the federal reserve system. kiley illustrates how effective us monetary policy has been in responding to the pandemic and, in doing so, preventing a v-shaped rebound from morphing into a deep u-shaped recession. the paper shows how the sharp increase in financing conditions at the outset of the pandemic were assuaged by a qe programme that eased balance sheet constraints on financial intermediaries, whi… |
| Benoît Cœuré: What can monetary policy do about inequality? | Period_2 | 2012-10-18 | 0.088 | inequality/poverty is a cause for concern also in the euro area it is well known that the relationship between inequality and growth is complex and not necessarily monotonic.2 on average, inequality in developed economies has increased in recent years. the gini coefficient, a standard measure of income inequality that ranges from 0 (when everybody has identical incomes) to 1 (when all income goes to only one person), stood at an average of 0.29 in oecd countries in the mid-1980s. by the end of the last decade, it had increased by almost 10% to 0.32. it rose in 17 of the 22 oecd countries for which long-term data series are available. of the eight euro area countries for which we have data, inequality increased in five, changed little in two and declined in one. thus, although incomes re… |
| Philip R Lane: The pandemic emergency - the three challenges for the ECB | Period_2 | 2020-08-27 | 0.084 | euro area loans to firms (indices, with t=100 for period of peak in economic activity) ecb and ecb calculations. notes: non-financial corporation (nfc) loan data deflated by the hicp. derivation of interquartile range and median for recessions and severe downturns based on quarterly data from q1 1980 to q2 2020 for france, germany, italy and spain. recessions defined by business cycle chronologies. severe downturns defined as periods of one or more quarters of real gdp declining by 1 percent or more quarter-on-quarter (whether part of a recession or not). the latest observations are for q2 2020. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in the euro area - the next phase | Period_3 | 2022-08-31 | 0.126 | much higher than the current policy rate, such that the extent of monetary tightening that has already occurred is far greater than the july first step in raising the policy rate. in assessing the terminal rate, both structural and cyclical factors are relevant. in the long-term steady state (with no shocks hitting the economy), the equilibrium nominal risk-free interest rate will be the sum of the two per cent inflation target and the long-term equilibrium risk-free real interest rate. however, within the medium-term horizon of monetary policy, time-varying cyclical factors may require interest rates to move above or below that long-term equilibrium level in order for inflation to stabilise at two per cent. it follows that, meeting-by-meeting, an important element of the monetary polic… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.107 | then, the pandemic hit, which led to a highly unusual recession followed by a highly atypical recovery. in conventional business cycles, the depth of the slump normally determines the pace of the recovery. after exceptionally deep recessions, both demand and supply are often impaired for many years. from the onset of the great financial crisis, for example, it took seven years for euro area gdp to get back to its pre-crisis level. growth never reconnected with the trend we thought possible before 2008. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.093 | financial conditions indices in advanced economies and emerging market economies refinitiv, bloomberg and ecb staff calculations. notes: national financial conditions indices are aggregated using gdp purchasing power parity shares. the latest observations are for 6 october 2022. it is sometimes argued that domestic inflation having a large global component should mean that domestic monetary policy needs to be tightened more forcefully to compensate for this weakened grip on prices. but if central banks across advanced economies are simultaneously tightening monetary policy – as is the case today – the opposite is true.[20] if central banks do not fully factor in the effects of other central banks’ policies, the current phase of global adjustment may give way to a more severe slowdown th… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.087 | similarly, industrial goods inflation may remain elevated in the near term due to higher input costs, but beyond that its dynamics are hard to predict. inventory levels are starting to return to normal, which suggests that demand might have peaked. the memory of supply shortages might prompt firms to build precautionary stocks that initially prolong tensions but ultimately lead to excess inventories once bottlenecks ease. this would amplify the manufacturing cycle and the volatility of goods inflation. the russian invasion of ukraine is now intensifying this uncertainty. we face greater financial volatility in the short term. there is a risk of renewed market dislocations as investors anticipate the potential impact of sanctions and possible retaliatory actions. and these dislocations m… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.085 | the risk of second-round effects monetary policy cannot prevent the first-round effects of many of these shocks. but especially when the shocks are persistent, we must ensure they do not produce second-round effects that cause too-high inflation to become entrenched. since the euro area is a net importer of energy, we are facing a large and unavoidable shock to real income owing to the deterioration in our terms of trade. this terms-of-trade “tax” amounted to around 2 percentage points of gdp in the second quarter of this year.[12] the question that workers, firms and governments confront today is how this burden should be distributed within the economy and over time. fair burden-sharing between wage income and profit margins is certainly justified. fiscal policy can help spread the bur… |
The most representative speeches:
5.28 Topic 28: bank; union; capital; bank union; european
5.28.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | bank | 1 | 0.0904915 | bank union | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 28 | union | 2 | 0.0358871 | capital market union | 2 | 0.9979836 |
| 28 | capital | 3 | 0.0322403 | market union | 3 | 0.9978084 |
| 28 | bank union | 4 | 0.0209054 | capital market | 4 | 0.9972813 |
| 28 | european | 5 | 0.0207083 | single supervisory | 5 | 0.9967940 |
| 28 | single | 6 | 0.0192298 | single resolution | 6 | 0.9966167 |
| 28 | capital market | 7 | 0.0166672 | resolution | 7 | 0.9965809 |
| 28 | mechanism | 8 | 0.0164700 | single supervisory mechanism | 8 | 0.9964426 |
| 28 | risk | 9 | 0.0159772 | complete | 9 | 0.9962279 |
| 28 | complete | 10 | 0.0143016 | supervisory mechanism | 10 | 0.9960469 |
| 28 | strengthen | 11 | 0.0142031 | capital | 11 | 0.9959563 |
| 28 | resolution | 12 | 0.0141045 | risk share | 12 | 0.9950936 |
| 28 | share | 13 | 0.0117390 | union | 13 | 0.9948943 |
| 28 | market | 14 | 0.0116404 | perform loan | 14 | 0.9946932 |
| 28 | progress | 15 | 0.0111476 | european bank | 15 | 0.9943928 |
5.28.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Noyer: The ECB and the accession process | Period_1 | 2001-10-15 | 0.099 | the strengthening of the financial and banking sectors although the restructuring process in accession countries has made substantial progress, the financial sectors of accession countries still need to be further developed in terms of size, depth and functioning. this applies, in particular, to the banking sector that largely dominates the financial sector of these economies. the challenges ahead are numerous: inter alia, the weakness of banking intermediation, reflected in the low level of credit to the private sector, the relatively large proportion of bad loans in banks’ balance sheets in some countries or the exceptionally high spreads between lending and deposit rates that will progressively vanish in the next years. fortunately, the privatisation process and the increasing partic… |
| Lucas Papademos: Price stability, financial stability and efficiency, and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-07-14 | 0.063 | 14 the recent studies by guiso, sapienza and zingales (2005) and bertrand, schoar and thesmar (forthcoming) provide some evidence in this direction. 15 see federal deposit insurance corporation (1997) and curry and shibut (2000). the number of federally insured thrift institutions declined by about 50% from 3,234 to 1,645 over the period 1986-1995. by the end of 1995, the crisis had cost the us taxpayers usd 124 billion. 16 see carletti and hartmann (2003). 17 see allen and gale (2004). 18 this is because each bank reacts strategically as its own individual actions affect the price of liquidity. a bank can avoid its own bankruptcy and contagion by providing adequate liquidity to the market. 19 see northcott (2004). another recent paper by boyd and de nicolo (2005) models both deposit an… |
| Lucas Papademos: The ECB’s accountability towards the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2010-04-29 | 0.057 | towards a more resilient financial system let me now conclude by addressing issues concerning financial regulation and supervision. as regards the regulatory reform agenda defined by the g20 leaders, significant and wide- ranging work has already been carried out or is under way, but we should not be complacent. it is crucial that the momentum for regulatory reform does not wane. there is still much to do: first, it is essential that the planned reforms effectively lead to a harmonised global regulatory framework. second, it is an urgent priority that the basel committee proposals on capital requirements and liquidity standards are properly calibrated and finalised by the end of 2010. third, we need to ensure that the regulatory framework effectively captures all systemically important … |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.053 | the institutional implication is that the escb should develop into a strong unity, with a strong centre and strong national central banks. it should become a truly european institution, with a truly european outlook. of course, it may take some time to arrive where we ultimately want to be. we have to get used to thinking in euro area-wide terms. in the ecb governing council we are already “practising” that approaches and are making progress. i am confident that the escb will indeed act as a unity. |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.049 | additional measures to support the asset side of banks’ balance sheets it may be necessary, however, in order to safeguard banking sector stability and restore an adequate flow of credit to the economy,, that these measures, which were aimed at supporting the liability side of banks’ balance sheets be complemented in certain cases by additional measures designed to support the asset side. various approaches have been considered, ranging notably from (i) asset removal schemes involving the removal of the “problem” assets from the balance sheets, through direct government purchases or by transferring them to “bad banks” or asset management vehicles; to (ii) asset insurance schemes that limit the valuation losses of impaired assets by invoking a government guarantee while keeping them on t… |
| Peter Praet: Beyond monetary policy - on the importance of a proper alignment of economic policies in EMU | Period_2 | 2016-10-13 | 0.391 | the need for decisive action at european level however, beyond the three-pronged approach, it will be necessary to fortify the institutional foundations of emu. for the resilience of the euro area depends not only on structural reforms at the national level but also on effective risk-sharing mechanisms preventing the resurgence of financial fragmentation that plagued the euro area in the 2011-12 period. the priority should be on strengthening the potential for private-sector risk sharing. two key initiatives in this respect are the banking union and the capital markets union. the banking union holds the promise to break the sovereign-bank nexus. the creation of the single supervisory mechanism and the single resolution mechanism are important steps in this direction. further steps are u… |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area - current status and challenges ahead | Period_2 | 2018-09-03 | 0.388 | third, we expect the key ecb interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with our current expectations of a sustained adjustment path. together, these measures will continue to provide the necessary degree of monetary policy accommodation to bring inflation back towards a level that is below, but close to, 2%. looking ahead, monetary policy will continue to be firmly guided by the outlook for price stability and our stance will evolve in a data-dependent and time-consistent manner. having reflected on the current economic situation in the euro area and the corresponding monetary policy stance, let me now turn to the future, notably to governance of… |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area - current status and the monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2019-02-12 | 0.388 | objective. this year, we are celebrating the 20th anniversary of the euro. in the two decades of its existence, the euro, underpinned by economic and monetary union (emu), has been a powerful tool of integration. but it has also faced a crisis so severe that its very existence was at times questioned. this sparked a thorough revision of our institutional framework, in the broader context of the international response to the global financial crisis. the architecture of emu is still incomplete in many ways. ensuring its longer-term resilience requires joint efforts at both the national and european levels. at the national level, we need to pursue reforms that promote sustainable economic convergence, and increase the growth potential and resilience of local economies. at the european leve… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2018-07-19 | 0.361 | we should not be held back by the distinction between risk reduction and risk sharing, for two reasons in particular. first, substantial risk reduction has already taken place. common equity tier 1 ratios of significant banks – a key indicator of bank health – are now 67% higher than they were ten years ago. further risk reduction is under way with the reduction of non-performing loans and toxic assets in the portfolios of some large banks. second, risk-sharing greatly helps risk reduction. consider the united states federal deposit insurance corporation. it successfully resolved 500 banks without causing financial instability, also because it was backstopped by the us government. the corresponding number for the euro area was ten times lower, which is another reason why the euro area b… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Exchange of views with members of the High Council of Public Finance | Period_2 | 2019-07-18 | 0.360 | space. but while not all countries have the space to spend more, all have the opportunity to spend better. the euro’s benefits, however, will not fully materialise for as long as the architecture of emu remains incomplete. material progress has been achieved in recent years. the european stability mechanism provides an important safeguard and reforms currently under discussion will strengthen its precautionary and crisis resolution toolkit. the creation of banking union, meanwhile, has considerably strengthened the resilience of the euro area financial sector and, together with the bank recovery and resolution directive, has created instruments to combat banking crises in a swifter and fairer way. banks directly supervised by the ecb have built up strong capital positions in recent year… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.165 | finally, governments should reinforce their efforts to deepen capital markets and create a green capital markets union. ecb research has long shown that stock markets are more effective than banks in supporting the decarbonisation of the economy.[16] yet, eu equity markets remain fragmented and often illiquid. reliance on bank lending at a time of rising constraints on banks’ balance sheets considerably reduces the set of options for firms to push ahead with their green agenda. the european commission’s recent package of legislative measures, including the proposed harmonisation of key aspects of corporate insolvency law and the removal of red tape for companies to list and raise capital on public exchanges, is an important step in the right direction.[17] but further decisive steps are… |
| Luis de Guindos: Presentation of the European Central Bank annual report 2021 | Period_3 | 2022-05-04 | 0.148 | assets. commodity markets have been the main transmission channel for stress up to now. elevated commodity prices increase financial stability concerns associated with high inflation and low growth. furthermore, the extreme volatility of prices has led to some stress in commodity derivatives markets, although there has been no major incident so far. financial institutions have limited net exposures on commodity derivatives and banks acting as clearing members are generally safeguarded by robust credit-risk management frameworks. bigger net exposures are held by energy producers and suppliers, commodity traders, as well as energy-dependent firms who use commodity derivatives to hedge their core business risk. the significant drop in outstanding contracts suggests that these entities migh… |
| Christine Lagarde: New challenges in a changing world | Period_3 | 2023-01-24 | 0.122 | challenges for europe in 2023 as this new global map takes shape, we enter 2023 facing three big challenges. the first challenge is to reconsider how we can best protect europe’s critical interests in a fast-changing world. as an economy that is very open to trade and deeply integrated into global supply chains, we are vulnerable to geopolitical headwinds. for example, 35% of europe’s manufacturing output is absorbed outside the eu, much more than for the united states or china. so, as the next chapter in the globalisation story is being written, we need to ensure that europe is a leader, not just a follower. and as the french president and german chancellor have recently argued, we have the capacity to do so.[8] already now, europe is the top trading partner for 80 countries, compared … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.119 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.109 | even these institutional innovations were initially insufficient to change the course of european policies. the financial assistance given to countries hit by the financial and sovereign debt crises was tied to strict policy conditionality. financial assistance programmes were conceived in partial equilibrium at the level of single countries, with insufficient efforts made to understand their implications for the euro area as a whole. the start of banking union was also not immune to policy errors. as a member of the ecb’s supervisory board at the time, i argued against the decision to accelerate the necessary increase in banks’ capital ratios in the midst of a crisis, especially in view of the incomplete nature of banking union.[8] the procyclical policies that characterised those year… |
The most representative speeches:
5.29 Topic 29: european; eu; commission; level; supervisory
5.29.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | european | 1 | 0.0327864 | supervisory | 1 | 0.9989485 |
| 29 | eu | 2 | 0.0283958 | regulatory | 2 | 0.9985982 |
| 29 | commission | 3 | 0.0221673 | cooperation | 3 | 0.9983344 |
| 29 | level | 4 | 0.0212484 | supervisor | 4 | 0.9982886 |
| 29 | supervisory | 5 | 0.0172662 | commission | 5 | 0.9972784 |
| 29 | framework | 6 | 0.0169599 | supervision | 6 | 0.9968452 |
| 29 | institution | 7 | 0.0161430 | regulation | 7 | 0.9961443 |
| 29 | national | 8 | 0.0156325 | european commission | 8 | 0.9961406 |
| 29 | issue | 9 | 0.0154283 | legislative | 9 | 0.9958693 |
| 29 | regulatory | 10 | 0.0139988 | eu | 10 | 0.9958666 |
| 29 | european commission | 11 | 0.0133862 | field | 11 | 0.9954441 |
| 29 | effective | 12 | 0.0126714 | proposal | 12 | 0.9952233 |
| 29 | authority | 13 | 0.0117525 | legislation | 13 | 0.9947297 |
| 29 | supervision | 14 | 0.0115482 | recommendation | 14 | 0.9946529 |
| 29 | regard | 15 | 0.0113440 | bank supervision | 15 | 0.9946427 |
5.29.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Claude-Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-12-28 | 0.348 | given the uncertainties, the adjustment process in the financial system in the coming period may be challenging, and we have to be prepared to the materialisation of risks at any time. that being said, there are mitigating factors including a broadly favourable economic outlook, the largely sound balance sheets of households and firms, and the generally sound capital positions of core financial firms. this should not, however, provide any grounds for complacency given the heightened uncertainties. in a fluid environment where financial system conditions may unexpectedly change, prudence is of the essence both for policymakers and financial institutions. concerning the role of financial institutions and supervisory authorities in coping with the financial turmoil, i would submit three ob… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European financial integration and the management of inflation expectations by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2005-04-21 | 0.341 | regard, the ecb supports initiatives from both the private sector and the european commission to encourage further integration. so what we need to do is to remove the remaining obstacles to effective cross-border banking in order to foster cross-border competition and further banking integration. let me mention a few examples. in the area of financial regulation and supervision, a key objective is to achieve a high degree of regulatory and supervisory convergence across countries. this will help to reduce the compliance burden on financial institutions, thus addressing one of the largest remaining obstacles to enhanced cross-border activities. the extension of the lamfalussy approach to the banking sector and the establishment of the committee of european banking supervisors (cebs) are … |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2002-12-04 | 0.329 | issues related to the eu arrangements for financial regulation, supervision and stability today, the ecofin council is considering adapting the eu structures for financial regulation, supervision and stability. the ecb keenly supports the basic thrust of such proposals, namely to reduce barriers to further financial integration and to maintain systemic stability in financial markets, which have become increasingly interconnected in a single currency area. against this background, the respect of the subsidiarity principle in supervisory matters necessitates enhanced co-operation between national authorities. the ecb has repeatedly stressed that in the banking sector close and effective co-operation between central banks and supervisory authorities is crucial for the promotion of financia… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The role of central banks in a globalised economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-21 | 0.328 | • the second way is that it calls for enhanced cross-border cooperation and exchange of information among central banks (and between them and other authorities contributing to financial stability). this should produce a comprehensive picture of risks and vulnerabilities and identify appropriate and effective mitigating policy actions. in the european union this goal is pursued mainly through the activity of the economic and financial committee in its financial stability table set-up, comprising representatives from ministries of finance, central banks and the supervisory committees in banking, securities and insurance, as well as the escb/eurosystem. at the level of the g-10, this goal is pursued by the financial stability forum and other sectoral committees. the globalisation of financ… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2005-09-23 | 0.310 | financial services policy i would now like to say a few words about the european commission’s green paper on financial services policy for the period 2005-2010. as already expressed in its contribution to the commission’s public consultation, the eurosystem supports the key policy orientation of the green paper, which highlights the need to focus on the consolidation and consistent implementation of the legislative framework for financial services. to this end, the potential of the lamfalussy framework should be exploited to the extent possible. as regards the area of financial regulation, the eurosystem concurs with the emphasis placed by the commission on the objective of rationalising the existing framework. the proposal for “better regulation” based on open, transparent and evidence… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2018-03-02 | 0.287 | impair normal monetary policy transmission channels. these are just two examples of the links between the operation of ccps and the transmission of monetary policy. while these links are not new, they now warrant closer attention for two reasons. first, the financial system has come to rely more on central counterparties. the introduction of mandatory central clearing requirements in response to the crisis has made financial markets safer and more transparent. this is in large part thanks to the european parliament’s push for stronger financial regulation, such as the european market infrastructure regulation (emir). while this strengthening is of course welcome, it also means that ccps have become more systemic. second, the united kingdom’s decision to leave the eu means that, under th… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2013 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-04-08 | 0.283 | looking ahead therefore, it is of the utmost importance to maintain this momentum and to continue with the rapid adoption of a number of pending legislative proposals. first, the proposed regulation on indices used as benchmarks in financial instruments and financial contracts needs urgently to be adopted and implemented, as regulatory uncertainty has been one of the factors leading to banks leaving the euribor panel. second, regulatory reforms of shadow banking, in particular the commission’s proposal on money market funds, will ensure that money market funds are safer and better managed. third, the legislative work will have to proceed on the european commission’s proposal on the structural reform of the eu banking sector, as it would contribute to reducing the potential fragmentation… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Presentation of the European Central Bank Annual Report 2015 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2016-04-07 | 0.270 | the ecb’s contributions to regulatory initiatives at international level let me now turn to the international regulatory agenda, also in response to the call by econ to receive more information on these issues. as i argued before, initiatives at european level are not taking place in isolation. last november, the financial stability board finalised the total loss-absorbing capacity (tlac) standard for large, complex, global systemically important banks. tlac is an important milestone in overcoming the “too big to fail” problem. it now needs to be implemented in the european framework. to further reduce risk-taking and strengthen the resilience of the banking system, the finalisation and implementation of the leverage ratio and the strategic review of the capital framework should be matt… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.203 | is the ecb really the institution that should deal with banking supervision? aren’t you afraid of reputational risks? not really. we will keep supervision strictly separate from monetary policy. the supervisors will have to take care of their reputation with respect to banking supervision, while the monetary policy-makers will take care of their credibility with respect to price stability. i actually believe that our monetary policy will become more effective if supervision is carried out well, because healthy banks will ensure that our monetary policy is better transmitted to the real economy. and what do you expect of davos? praise, because you have rescued the euro area, or criticism because you are not doing enough? both. is the ecb really the institution that should deal with banki… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with CNBC | Period_2 | 2017-01-24 | 0.191 | uk will not stay in the single market. single market is not only about tariffs, it’s not only about free access to a market. it’s a set of rules. it’s a set of rules to protect investors, it’s a set of rules to protect consumers, it’s a set of rules to ensure a level playing field, among institutions, and it’s a set of rules to provide-, to deliver financial stability. when this is gone, we’ll have to know which set of other rules will protect investors, provide a level playing field and provide financial stability, and that’s very much the background against which any specific issue has to be assessed. so when it comes to clearing, it’s very simple. we have an mou with the bank of england, we have ways to know what’s going on in terms of euro clearing in london. it works very well. tha… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2021-11-16 | 0.238 | policy framework. the resulting climate action plan we announced in july presents a comprehensive roadmap to step up our involvement in climate change-related matters, in line with our obligations under the eu treaties. the ecb has already taken concrete steps to strengthen the role of climate risk in both financial stability monitoring and banking supervision. the ecb recently published the methodology and results of our economy-wide climate stress test, showing that there are clear benefits for both banks and companies if they act early and ensure an orderly transition. the exercise will also be used to inform the 2022 supervisory climate stress test that will be conducted to test banks’ preparedness to assess climate risks. ecb banking supervision has also asked banks to conduct self… |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.190 | while i understand it is not a specific topic covered in today’s conference, a similar commitment to fully incorporate climate-related and environmental risks applies to our banking supervision tasks and responsibilities. in addition to the climate stress test that was concluded by ecb banking supervision earlier this year, we will soon publish the results of our thematic review. as part of this exercise, our core banking supervision teams – joint supervisory teams – thoroughly assessed to what extent banks’ risk management practices for climate-related and environmental risks live up to the supervisory expectations we published in 2020. we conducted this exercise to assess where banks stand with regard to our expectations and to highlight any gaps they urgently need to close. we will a… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.139 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: International Monetary and Financial Committee statement | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.103 | wider economy under all possible scenarios. international crisis response financial support for ukraine was quickly mobilised from various sources. yet the war is also affecting other countries through rising commodity prices, disruptions to trade and remittances, an influx of refugees, and shortages of food imports from both ukraine and russia. we welcome the fact that the imf is monitoring developments and stands ready to act to support affected countries. depending on how the situation evolves, all layers of the global financial safety net may need to be activated to deal with the fallout. in view of the russian invasion of ukraine, there cannot be a “business-as-usual” approach to international cooperation. still, the international community needs to work together on other issues of… |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.094 | management practices are fully aligned with all our expectations by the end of 2024 at the latest. it is clear that central banks and supervisors are not primarily responsible for addressing the ongoing climate and environmental crises. they are climate and environment policy-takers, whereas governments and legislators – including the european parliament – are climate and environment policymakers. the european union and its co-legislators are clearly committed to the paris agreement. the eu is taking concrete steps to implement legislation that puts this commitment into practice. central banks and supervisors cannot ignore this in the pursuit of their mandate. similarly, on the path to meeting the paris agreement goals, we cannot ignore scenarios which include a greater manifestation of… |
The most representative speeches:
5.30 Topic 30: medium; medium term; outlook; term inflation; medium term inflation
5.30.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | medium | 1 | 0.2018320 | medium term inflation | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 30 | medium term | 2 | 0.1781773 | inflation outlook | 2 | 0.9993866 |
| 30 | outlook | 3 | 0.0714798 | medium term | 3 | 0.9992988 |
| 30 | term inflation | 4 | 0.0510965 | medium | 4 | 0.9992986 |
| 30 | medium term inflation | 5 | 0.0436730 | term inflation | 5 | 0.9992114 |
| 30 | inflation outlook | 6 | 0.0322232 | term inflation outlook | 6 | 0.9992111 |
| 30 | current | 7 | 0.0281968 | outlook | 7 | 0.9988604 |
| 30 | base | 8 | 0.0168728 | term outlook | 8 | 0.9986856 |
| 30 | term inflation outlook | 9 | 0.0136014 | medium term outlook | 9 | 0.9985100 |
| 30 | assessment | 10 | 0.0134756 | incoming | 10 | 0.9980725 |
| 30 | term outlook | 11 | 0.0088202 | anticipate | 11 | 0.9970212 |
| 30 | expect | 12 | 0.0086943 | term inflation aim | 12 | 0.9965748 |
| 30 | incoming | 13 | 0.0081910 | current inflation | 13 | 0.9963159 |
| 30 | medium term outlook | 14 | 0.0080652 | current | 14 | 0.9963134 |
| 30 | assess | 15 | 0.0078136 | weaken | 15 | 0.9962764 |
5.30.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Duisenberg elucidates the European System of Central Banks’ stability-oriented monetary policy strategy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 10 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-11-20 | 0.076 | the governing council also announced that “price stability is to be maintained over the medium term”. in doing so, it realistically acknowledged that disturbances to the price level can occur in the short run - for example, those caused by changes in indirect taxes or commodity prices - that cannot be controlled by monetary policy of the escb. such factors may lead to occasional falls in the hicp, or occasional increases above 2%. these are quite normal and consistent with a meaningful definition of price stability. by focusing on the medium term, the escb’s monetary policy will ensure that these transitory deviations from the definition do not become sustained over the medium term. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2006 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-07-13 | 0.072 | economic and monetary issues in 2006 the ecb’s monetary policy continued to anchor medium and long-term inflation expectations at levels consistent with price stability. this reflected the credibility of the ecb in conducting its monetary policy, in full compliance with its primary objective of maintaining price stability over the medium term. the solid anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting sustainable economic growth and job creation in the euro area, in line with article 105 (1) of the ec treaty. in 2006 the euro area economy expanded at the highest growth rate since 2000. notwithstanding the impact of high and volatile oil prices, real gdp rose by 2.9% in 2006, compared with 1.5% in 200… |
| Lucas D Papademos: Challenges for monetary policy in Europe | Period_1 | 2003-11-27 | 0.062 | last thursday, the governing council decided to leave the ecb’s key interest rates unchanged. our judgement on the appropriateness of the current monetary policy stance is based on, among other things, the expectation of a gradual economic recovery in the euro area during the second half of the year, in an environment of improving activity in the world economy as a whole. this expectation is supported by new data releases, several forward-looking indicators including confidence surveys, recently published forecasts from official and private sources, as well as developments in financial markets. even though inflation may not fall over the coming months as quickly and by as much as had been previously anticipated, the medium-term outlook for price stability remains favourable. the past ap… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.057 | the inflation outlook for the euro area the preservation of price stability over the medium term is the overriding policy objective for the ecb. by achieving this objective, we contribute to financial stability and support sustainable growth. since mid-2008, annual (hicp) inflation in the euro area declined steadily from 4% in july 2008 to 1.1% in january 2009 (according to eurostat’s flash estimate). this decline in headline inflation reflects largely the substantial fall in global commodity prices and associated “pipeline” price pressures over this period. annual inflation rates are projected to decline further in the coming months, mainly due to expected lower commodity prices and base effects stemming from past energy prices, but also owing to diminishing domestic inflationary press… |
| Lucas Papademos: The effects of globalisation on inflation, liquidity and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-06-13 | 0.056 | households or non-financial corporations. moreover, the process of securitisation of loans itself positively affects the capacity of banks (of mfis, to be precise), to issue new loans and thus it could have an indirect expansionary effect on m3 growth. how can we deal with the influence of these factors on money creation and their potential effects on the medium and long-term inflation outlook? in general, the same answer applies as with respect to changes in net external assets. given that the ofis’ money holdings and investment activities could have indirect effects on consumer price developments via asset prices, it would be premature to automatically exclude, without further analysis, the money balances held by ofis from the monetary aggregates when assessing the risks to price stab… |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.112 | in terms of policy making, the ecb governing council will carefully assess the incoming information with regard to its implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. the governing council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. furthermore, the current monetary policy strategy review exercise provides an excellent opportunity to revisit the strategic underpinnings of our monetary policy, in order to ensure we are maximising our effectiveness and efficiency in delivering our mandate.[10] [1] i am grateful to demosthenes ioannou and nick ligthart for their contributions to this speech. |
| Fabio Panetta: Asymmetric risks, asymmetric reaction - monetary policy in the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-09-22 | 0.101 | the appreciation of the euro is one factor that we need to watch closely with regard to its implications for the medium-term inflation outlook, particularly at a time when current and expected inflation rates are both very low. the sustained appreciation in the external value of the euro has brought about an undesirable tightening of financial conditions and has offset some of the monetary accommodation provided by our measures. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in a pandemic - ensuring favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2020-12-01 | 0.100 | under these conditions, the first challenge in delivering the medium-term inflation aim is to reconnect inflation to its pre-pandemic projected path. this means boosting inflation momentum towards the upper part of the “bcde” area (the grey shaded area), so that the adjustment approaches the “bcd” path. by setting the monetary stance at the appropriate level to deliver the financial conditions required to offset the pandemic shock to inflation, the underlying inflation trajectory will be restored. in turn, this also serves to underpin the formation of inflation expectations in a manner that is consistent with meeting the medium-term inflation aim. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-15 | 0.091 | actual expectations have fallen to a much smaller extent. in other words, while expectations of a surge in euro area demand and inflation, as typically captured by a rising inflation risk premium, have been significantly cut, expectations about the baseline have remained more stable. yet, while shifts in risk premia can explain the bulk of recent developments in long-term inflation expectations, they can explain much less of the recent fall in short and medium-term expectations, which you can see on the right-hand side of this slide. three-quarters or more of the decline in short and medium-term maturity inflation swap rates since the autumn of last year reflect a genuine fall in inflation expectations. such a drop in short and medium-term inflation expectations is particularly remarkab… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.090 | reflections on monetary policy page 12 of 18 monetary policy at our meeting last week, the governing council was hence confronted with a more extended slowdown of the euro area economy than previously anticipated, persistent and salient downside risks to the growth outlook, and a further delay in the convergence of inflation towards our medium-term inflation aim (chart 15). the case for a monetary policy response was clear, and a comprehensive package of measures was judged to be the most effective way to support the convergence of inflation to our aim.[6] actual and projected hicp inflation |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.185 | looking further ahead, we expect to raise the key ecb interest rates again in september. the calibration of this rate increase will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook. if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at our september meeting. third, beyond september, based on our current assessment, we anticipate that a gradual but sustained path of further increases in interest rates will be appropriate. in line with our commitment to our two per cent medium-term target, the pace at which we adjust our monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and how we assess inflation to develop in the medium term. within the governing council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monet… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in an uncertain world | Period_3 | 2022-03-17 | 0.171 | all this suggests that inflation is increasingly likely to stabilise at our 2% target over the medium term. this was the outlook which led us, in december last year, to start with a step-by-step reduction in the pace of our asset purchases. we also adjusted our communication in february as the incoming data suggested that inflation was converging even faster towards our medium-term goal. the inflation outlook and the war the outbreak of the war has introduced new uncertainty into the outlook. in particular, the short-term factors pushing up inflation are likely to be amplified. |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.147 | the ecb’s recent monetary policy decisions the governing council has a steadfast and unwavering commitment to its medium-term inflation target of 2%. on the basis of our updated assessment, we decided at our meeting on 9 june to take further steps towards normalising our monetary policy. first, we decided to end net asset purchases under our asset purchase programme as of last friday, 1 july. second, we announced our intention to raise the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points at our july monetary policy meeting and to raise them again in september. the size of the interest rate increase in september will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook − if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, an increment of more than 25 basis points will be appropriate. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.143 | conclusion let me conclude. we find ourselves in an exceptionally volatile environment, with multiple and complex risks for the inflation outlook and the appropriate monetary policy response. we are normalising our monetary policy to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation back to 2% over the medium term. but we cannot ignore the sizeable challenges that we are facing. so we must calibrate our monetary policy carefully to ensure that inflation durably returns to our target, while also guiding market expectations and limiting excess volatility. our policy stance must remain evidence-based and adapt to changes in the medium-term inflation outlook, avoiding an excessive focus on short-run developments and fully taking into account the risks emanating from the domestic and … |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.139 | this new formulation clearly enhances the governing council’s flexibility and optionality as it helps to manage in a more agile manner the specific steps regarding the implementation of the sequence of normalisation decisions, allowing us to attune such steps to incoming data. moreover, the governing council reconfirmed that the path for our policy rates will continue to be determined by our forward guidance and by our strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at two per cent over the medium term, and we also signalled that any adjustments to our interest rates will be gradual, which is especially important in times of uncertainty. more than ever, it is important to maintain optionality in the conduct of monetary policy. in current conditions, it is especially important to remain data… |
The most representative speeches:
5.31 Topic 31: recovery; support; economic recovery; continue; remain
5.31.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | recovery | 1 | 0.1625883 | recovery | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 31 | support | 2 | 0.0424763 | economic recovery | 2 | 0.9998247 |
| 31 | economic recovery | 3 | 0.0415396 | momentum | 3 | 0.9979847 |
| 31 | continue | 4 | 0.0335252 | improve | 4 | 0.9972806 |
| 31 | remain | 5 | 0.0331089 | cyclical recovery | 5 | 0.9971014 |
| 31 | improve | 6 | 0.0255108 | strengthen | 6 | 0.9967561 |
| 31 | level | 7 | 0.0250945 | pick | 7 | 0.9965822 |
| 31 | positive | 8 | 0.0203066 | positive | 8 | 0.9965783 |
| 31 | investment | 9 | 0.0202025 | improvement | 9 | 0.9964513 |
| 31 | return | 10 | 0.0199944 | return | 10 | 0.9962279 |
| 31 | strengthen | 11 | 0.0193699 | cyclical | 11 | 0.9960573 |
| 31 | condition | 12 | 0.0178086 | profitability | 12 | 0.9957496 |
| 31 | strong | 13 | 0.0167678 | resilient | 13 | 0.9956189 |
| 31 | confidence | 14 | 0.0161433 | gain momentum | 14 | 0.9956045 |
| 31 | momentum | 15 | 0.0145821 | economic prospect | 15 | 0.9952982 |
5.31.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European economy - current state and prospects | Period_1 | 2004-09-29 | 0.124 | current economic situation and future prospects let me start by describing the current economic and financial situation. the latest data releases confirm that the economic recovery in the euro area is continuing. real gdp grew by 0.5% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of this year, having recorded a 0.6% increase in the first quarter. moreover, the latest indicators of output and demand remain consistent with ongoing growth in real activity. looking ahead, the conditions for a continuation and broadening of the recovery remain in place. economic growth outside the euro area continues to be robust, and should continue to support euro area export growth. on the domestic side, investment should benefit from the positive global environment and the very favourable financing conditions… |
| Lucas Papademos: The economic outlook and the ECB’s monetary policy - some key issues | Period_1 | 2004-11-12 | 0.110 | the economic outlook and monetary policy in the euro area i will start by discussing the current state of the euro area economy and the medium-term economic outlook. the performance of the euro area economy this year is characterised by the ongoing recovery of economic activity at a pace somewhat faster than previously envisaged. inflation, however, has remained above (though relatively close to) 2%. this outcome is not in line with our notion of price stability and is higher than the average inflation expected a year ago for 2004. the sharp rise in oil prices since the beginning of this year, by about 60% (in us dollar terms), has been the main reason for the higher than earlier expected inflation. let me elaborate a bit on the pace of the economic recovery, the factors that have contr… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2004-02-25 | 0.096 | in my testimony today i will first comment on recent economic and monetary developments. i will then make a few remarks about the benefits that have been brought to us by the euro in its first five years of existence. economic and monetary developments when we last met in december, economic indicators and financial market developments were already supporting our view that a gradual economic recovery had started in the euro area in the second half of 2003. the evidence that has since become available has made us more confident that the recovery did indeed begin in the second half of 2003 and has strengthened our expectation of an upswing in economic activity. an upturn in economic activity is well under way at the global level. this view was shared by all participants at the recent g7 me… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the European economy and the ECB’s monetary policy concept | Period_1 | 2004-07-20 | 0.088 | the current state of the euro area economy overall, the latest data releases confirm that the economic recovery in the euro area is continuing. quarterly real gdp growth in the first quarter of this year was 0.6%, slightly higher than what had been expected earlier this year. for the second quarter of this year, the latest indicators of output and expenditure, as well as the most recent survey data, remain consistent with ongoing growth in real activity, with the working assumption of a gradual recovery. looking ahead, we remain confident that the recovery of economic activity will continue. indeed, the conditions for a broadening and strengthening of the recovery are in place. starting with external developments, economic growth outside the euro area remains strong and this should prom… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2004-09-28 | 0.086 | economic and monetary developments at the time of my last appearance before this committee in april, i foresaw that annual inflation rates would edge up temporarily to above 2%, mainly on account of oil price developments and increases in indirect taxes. at the same time, i stated that we expected the economic recovery which had started in the second half of 2003 to continue, albeit at a gradual pace. in this light, i assessed that the outlook for price developments over the medium term remained consistent with price stability. against this background, the governing council had left the key ecb interest rates unchanged at their historically low level of 2.0% since june 2003. the data that have become available over the past few months in fact confirm the outlook i gave in april. they in… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-03-24 | 0.165 | economic outlook and monetary policy the most recent data and survey evidence show that growth is gaining momentum. the basis for the economic recovery in the euro area has clearly strengthened. this is due to in particular the fall in oil prices, the gradual firming of external demand, easy financing conditions driven by our accomodative monetary policy, and the depreciation of the euro. these more positive developments are also reflected in the recent ecb staff projections. compared with the projections from december, the outlook for 2015 and 2016 has been visibly revised upwards by 0.5 and 0.4 pp., respectively. we expect inflation in the euro area to remain very low or negative in the months ahead, because the recent fall in oil prices will continue to influence the figures until la… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Effectiveness of Monetary Union and the Capital Markets Union | Period_2 | 2017-04-10 | 0.160 | euro area activity has been improving against this backdrop of easing financing conditions. higher employment has boosted labour incomes and consumption, and investment has begun a cyclical recovery. global growth prospects are showing signs of strengthening and may well further support the recovery. indeed, despite the waning support from oil prices, growth has continued to broaden and gain momentum. while risks to the outlook remain on the downside, they are less pronounced than before. our latest staff macroeconomic projections were revised slightly upwards, with annual real gdp is expected to increase by 1.8% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. the impact of monetary policy measures on euro area gdp growth is sizeable, adding a cumulative 1.7% over the period 2016–2019 (chart 4)… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy and the outlook for the economy | Period_2 | 2017-11-21 | 0.153 | mario draghi: monetary policy and the outlook for the economy speech by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, at the frankfurt european banking congress “europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”, frankfurt am main, 17 november 2017. * * * today i would like to describe how the euro area economy is developing and explain our latest monetary policy decisions. the economic recovery is continuing but inflation developments remain subdued. so, while we are confident in the recovery, we still need a patient and persistent approach to our monetary policy to ensure that medium-term price stability is achieved. the euro area economic recovery the euro area is in the midst of a solid economic expansion. gdp has risen for 18 straight quarters, with the latest data… |
| Peter Praet: Lifting potential growth in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-04-27 | 0.153 | since we announced our purchase programme in january, real interest rates have fallen along the yield curve, driven by both a flattening of the term structure of interest rates and, crucially, by a reversal in the decline of inflation expectations. market-based measures of inflation expectations have increased at all horizons, and as they rise back to levels consistent with medium-term price stability real interest rates should further decrease. bank lending data have also been steadily improving. the cost of borrowing for euro area firms has fallen by around 45 basis points since the summer of last year, with rates converging across euro area countries. our most recent bank lending survey shows that euro area banks are continuing to ease credit conditions. 6 importantly, this is mainly… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Consolidating the euro area’s economic recovery | Period_2 | 2015-05-19 | 0.149 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.090 | what are the monetary policy implications of the medium-term picture? most importantly, we still need to complete the recovery. a major achievement of the european crisis response was to provide a common answer to a common shock. now, we need common policies to support a common recovery, underpinning the sustained return of inflation to our target. next generation eu provides the fiscal support for the recovery, but continued monetary stimulus is necessary to cement progress. if we lose patience now, we will put at risk everything we have achieved so far. |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.055 | the corporate sector, which benefited from the fiscal support and a strong recovery in the second half of last year, has seen profitability above pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022. but soaring prices for energy and commodities are likely to hurt activity, especially in energy-intensive sectors. corporate insolvencies have remained well below pre-pandemic levels. but some sectors have already seen an increase in expected default rates and might be at greater risk of insolvencies in the event of adverse economic surprises or a further tightening of financial conditions. in 2021, households benefited from the economic recovery, low unemployment and favourable financing conditions. but they are now feeling the effects of higher inflation and recession fears, as reflected in decl… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2021-11-16 | 0.049 | measures. in support of this inflation target and in line with our monetary policy strategy, the governing council revised its forward guidance on the key ecb interest rates. we expect them to remain at their present or lower levels until we see inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of our projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and we judge that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term. preserving favourable financing conditions over the pandemic period is essential to reduce uncertainty and bolster confidence, thereby underpinning economic activity and safeguarding medium-term price stability. the governing council regularly recalibrates the net purchas… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.048 | financial and monetary conditions market interest rates have increased in response to the changing outlook for inflation and monetary policy. with benchmark interest rates rising, bank funding costs have increased, and this has fed into higher bank lending rates in particular for households. nevertheless, lending to firms picked up in march. this was because of the continued need to finance investment and working capital, against the backdrop of increasing production costs, persisting supply bottlenecks and lower reliance on market funding. lending to households also increased, reflecting continued robust demand for mortgages. in line with our monetary policy strategy, the governing council has undertaken its biannual in-depth assessment of the interrelation between monetary policy and … |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-09-09 | 0.048 | bank lending rates for firms and households are at historically low levels. lending to households is holding up, especially for house purchases. the somewhat slower growth of lending to firms is mainly due to the fact that firms are still well funded, because they borrowed heavily in the first wave of the pandemic. they have high cash holdings and are increasingly retaining earnings, which reduces the need for external funding. for larger firms, issuing bonds is an attractive alternative to bank loans. solid bank balance sheets continue to ensure that sufficient credit is available. however, many firms and households have taken on more debt during the pandemic. a deterioration in the economic outlook could threaten their financial health. this, in turn, would worsen the quality of banks… |
The most representative speeches:
5.32 Topic 32: financial; stability; financial stability; risk; prudential
5.32.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | financial | 1 | 0.1910004 | prudential | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 32 | stability | 2 | 0.0844771 | financial stability | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 32 | financial stability | 3 | 0.0829360 | macroprudential | 3 | 0.9992990 |
| 32 | risk | 4 | 0.0423878 | macro prudential | 4 | 0.9991234 |
| 32 | prudential | 5 | 0.0214877 | systemic | 5 | 0.9987734 |
| 32 | macro | 6 | 0.0188872 | macro | 6 | 0.9985102 |
| 32 | macroprudential | 7 | 0.0159978 | macroprudential policy | 7 | 0.9984661 |
| 32 | authority | 8 | 0.0146494 | systemic risk | 8 | 0.9983786 |
| 32 | systemic | 9 | 0.0143604 | prudential supervision | 9 | 0.9973257 |
| 32 | macro prudential | 10 | 0.0133973 | financial instability | 10 | 0.9964517 |
| 32 | supervision | 11 | 0.0125305 | supervision | 11 | 0.9963166 |
| 32 | address | 12 | 0.0095447 | instability | 12 | 0.9962299 |
| 32 | instability | 13 | 0.0088705 | macro prudential policy | 13 | 0.9959638 |
| 32 | systemic risk | 14 | 0.0085816 | prudential policy | 14 | 0.9958795 |
| 32 | macroprudential policy | 15 | 0.0085816 | financial stability risk | 15 | 0.9956163 |
5.32.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-04-01 | 0.397 | what role for the ecb in the area of financial market supervision? i will now turn to the final topic, the review of the framework for financial supervision in the european union. already last autumn the european parliament asked the ecb and the escb to play an active role in macro-prudential supervision and financial stability. such a role is envisaged in the report by the high-level group chaired by jacques de larosière. i welcome its proposals on macro-prudential supervision, which relate in particular to a european systemic risk council under the auspices of the ecb. let me provide you with a few observations on this matter. first, the output of the systemic risk council will make a major contribution to financial stability in the eu. in accordance with the de larosière report, it w… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-10-01 | 0.383 | measures are being phased out naturally, as the operations stop at maturity, unless we decide to extend them. macro-prudential supervision in europe and the role of the ecb let me now turn to the second main issue, the role of macro-prudential supervision and the envisaged european systemic risk board (esrb). the financial crisis has shown that the present, highly sophisticated globalised financial markets and interconnected financial institutions are prone to systemic risk. systemic risk concerns the possibility that the functioning of the financial system can be threatened or materially impaired as a result of the collective behaviour of market participants, investors and financial institutions; it derives, in particular, from their interactions in financial markets and from the close… |
| Lucas Papademos: Price stability, financial stability and efficiency, and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-07-14 | 0.325 | opportunities. understood this way, the safeguarding of financial stability requires identifying the main sources of risk and vulnerability; assessing whether the financial system is facilitating a smooth and efficient reallocation of financial resources from savers to investors; and evaluating whether financial risks are being appropriately priced and efficiently managed. this is because financial stability has a forward looking dimension: inefficiencies in the allocation of capital or shortcomings in the pricing and management of risk can, if they lay the foundations for vulnerabilities, compromise future financial system stability and therefore economic stability. consequently, monitoring financial stability with a systemic perspective and in a comprehensive manner is of major import… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.302 | however, most policy decisions are confronted with similar informational problems and require a difficult evaluation of the statistical evidence. while monetary and financial conditions are explicitly part of the analysis of the risks to price stability at the ecb, such policy is not a panacea, nor a certain means to ensure that financial crises never arise. there are limitations to what monetary policy alone can achieve. excessive risk and pro-cyclicality in the financial system can also result from factors other than sustained credit growth and high leverage. hence, they require policy actions that can address the underlying causes of these factors. supervisory and regulatory instruments are particularly well suited to preventing excessive risk-taking and the accumulation of financial… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Lessons for monetary policy from the recent crisis | Period_1 | 2011-01-20 | 0.285 | over and above the floor interest rate set by the central bank do not become an additional pro-cyclical source of volatility for the financial system and the economy as a whole. how about the other dimension of supervision: micro-prudential policies? note, first, the difference between macro and micro. macro-prudential supervision aims at limiting the likelihood of failure of significant portions of the financial system, or systemic risk. it follows that the macro-prudential supervision stresses the possibility that actions that may seem desirable or reasonable from the perspective of individual institutions may result in unwelcome system outcomes. micro-prudential supervision, instead, aims at limiting the likelihood of failure of individual institutions. while the two policies have cl… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-03-24 | 0.387 | however, price stability is not a sufficient condition of financial stability. the last crisis proved that financial stability can be at risk even at times when price stability is achieved. and monetary policy decisions also affect expectations and a wide range of asset prices. our monetary policy measures are necessary to achieve our primary objective of maintaining price stability. but we are nevertheless aware that they may have unintended side effects on the financial system. for example, asset prices may increase to levels that are not justified by fundamentals, while periods of low yields and volatility may invite excessive risk taking by financial investors. in turn, such developments can act as an amplifying mechanism for any eventual financial instability. at the same time, fin… |
| Yves Mersch: Swedbank Economic Outlook Seminar | Period_2 | 2015-05-19 | 0.302 | because the longer such measures persist, the greater the risks that can come with it. and in the euro area context there are two main risks that can in principle arise: first, greater financial instability (and let me stress here i am talking only about the situation in the euro area and not in other jurisdictions); and second, the delay of much needed structural reforms. to provide a framework for how to think about these risks i find it useful to invoke the well- known “tinbergen rule”, which states that a macroeconomic authority must have at least as many instruments as it has objectives. in terms of the first risk – financial stability – one has to distinguish between conflicting and complementary objectives. in normal times, it might be appropriate for monetary policy to take fina… |
| Mario Draghi: The path to recovery and the ECB’s role | Period_2 | 2014-02-28 | 0.256 | something one would observe in a deflationary environment. but any setbacks in the absorption of economic slack may give rise to further negative developments. against this background, we will remain alert as to whether any indications on further downside risks to price stability emerge and we stand ready to act. a second challenge we will be facing in the coming months is to make the single supervisory mechanism really work. as i initially explained, the institutional reforms that have been adopted or are being adopted to establish a banking union constitute important progress. but to meet the ultimate objective of strengthening financial stability, implementation is key. and implementation is well under way: the supervisory board has held its first three meetings; a framework regulati… |
| Peter Praet: The interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy | Period_2 | 2018-10-04 | 0.251 | peter praet: the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy speech by mr peter praet, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the money, macro and finance research group conference on the resilience of the global financial architecture, london, 27 september 2018. * * * i would like to thank john hutchinson for his support in the preparation of this speech. introduction a decade on from the start of the global financial crisis, which led to the biggest drop in economic activity in euro area economies since the second world war, the euro area is currently experiencing a broad-based expansion. looking ahead, significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the gradual build-up of price pressures for the sustainable return of inflati… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Low inflation as a challenge for monetary policy and financial stability? | Period_2 | 2014-07-08 | 0.229 | the more the key interest rates are lowered and the longer the low interest rate phase lasts, the bigger the risk that one of these undesired side effects materialises. how should we respond to such developments? should monetary policymakers make compromises on their objective of price stability? i don’t think so. and not only because i feel committed to our treaty basis. a basis that we are not authorised to change. even if, in choosing its instruments, the ecb’s governing council cannot ignore the side effects but must precisely analyse the costs and benefits, the monetary policy objective of preserving price stability is always at the forefront; it is always the primary aim. but that does not mean that we should simply accept these undesired side effects. effective macro-prudential o… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.221 |
|
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.186 | improved economic conditions in reducing risks to financial stability. since then, the outlook for financial stability has been downgraded twice: in our financial stability review of may 2022, and the one to be published this week, which sets out how deteriorating economic and financial conditions have further increased risks to the stability of the euro area financial system. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.178 | in line with our monetary policy strategy, twice a year the governing council assesses in depth the interrelation between monetary policy and financial stability. the financial stability environment has deteriorated since our last review in june 2022 owing to a weaker economy and rising credit risk. in addition, sovereign vulnerabilities have risen amid the weaker economic outlook and weaker fiscal positions. tighter financing conditions would mitigate the build-up of financial vulnerabilities and lower tail risks to inflation over the medium term, at the cost of a higher risk of systemic stress and greater downside risks to growth in the short term. in addition, the liquidity needs of non- bank financial institutions may amplify market volatility. at the same time, euro area banks have… |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.176 | and sectors in the euro area. it fine-tunes the overall policy mix and complements the single monetary policy in support of overall financial stability across the euro area. despite the overall good resilience of the euro area banking sector, certain countries have in recent years seen a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, notably related to residential real estate prices and growing household and firm indebtedness. some further careful and targeted tightening of macroprudential policy would be beneficial in selected countries at present. given the deteriorated outlook for economic growth, some countries might benefit from further increasing the resilience of their financial sectors before credit risks start materialising. this includes for example taking measures to preserve capital… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-09-27 | 0.164 | these favourable financing conditions, which are necessary for a robust recovery that will restore inflation to its pre-pandemic level. financial stability considerations in our new monetary policy strategy i will now turn to the second topic which you have selected for this hearing, namely the risk of financial dominance. financial dominance occurs when central banks delay the removal of monetary policy accommodation for longer than appropriate, in order to avoid market turmoil. let me be clear on this. the ecb has a very clear primary mandate which is stipulated in the treaty: price stability. as stipulated by the treaty, any other consideration should be subordinate and without prejudice to delivering on our primary mandate. regarding the stability of the financial sector, our new st… |
The most representative speeches:
5.33 Topic 33: output; potential; gap; estimate; growth
5.33.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | output | 1 | 0.1153457 | gap | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 33 | potential | 2 | 0.0928503 | output | 2 | 0.9996494 |
| 33 | gap | 3 | 0.0664270 | output gap | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 33 | estimate | 4 | 0.0482164 | potential growth | 4 | 0.9992114 |
| 33 | growth | 5 | 0.0435745 | potential output | 5 | 0.9992113 |
| 33 | output gap | 6 | 0.0400038 | potential | 6 | 0.9986845 |
| 33 | potential growth | 7 | 0.0303629 | estimate | 7 | 0.9981584 |
| 33 | potential output | 8 | 0.0245307 | potential output growth | 8 | 0.9978958 |
| 33 | trend | 9 | 0.0225073 | output growth | 9 | 0.9977220 |
| 33 | structural | 10 | 0.0181035 | structural unemployment | 10 | 0.9970207 |
| 33 | close | 11 | 0.0157230 | hysteresis | 11 | 0.9970204 |
| 33 | output growth | 12 | 0.0133425 | trend | 12 | 0.9966670 |
| 33 | measure | 13 | 0.0116762 | european commission | 13 | 0.9962318 |
| 33 | unemployment | 14 | 0.0116762 | real time | 14 | 0.9957505 |
| 33 | forecast | 15 | 0.0100099 | potential growth rate | 15 | 0.9957454 |
5.33.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.283 | provides a vivid example of this problem. it displays alternative vintages of output- gap estimates for the united states as calculated by the imf. consider, for instance, spring 2005, when the federal funds target rate was at the relatively low level of 2.75%. the initial estimate of the output gap was negative at -1.3%. two years later it was revised upwards to 0.1%, and four years later, in 2009, it was revised upwards again to positive territory 1.4%. interestingly, the latest estimate suggests that the us output gap was never in negative territory over the last decade, not even between 2001 and 2005. large subsequent revisions of the output gap are not confined to specific years, but are a pervasive feature. chart 2 shows the actual size of these revisions as estimated by the oecd … |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: The challenges facing monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-01-27 | 0.220 | for example, if it is considered that the crisis has had a limited effect on both the level and potential growth rate of the economy, the output gap will be estimated to be very large and the risks of deflation may be considerable. this hypothesis justifies a very expansive monetary policy and fiscal policy, in order to fill the output gap as quickly as possible, with few risks that could have inflationary effects. in other words, the wider the estimated gap, the more reason for keeping the interest rate at very low levels, even close to zero, for an extended period of time, until the economic system returns to levels close to full employment. if the crisis had the effect of reducing economic potential in terms of level and growth, the accumulated gap is less than when compared with the… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.219 | hand, for example, the revised output-gap measure available to us today is positive in almost all estimates for 1999, 2000 and 2001, but it was estimated to be negative in real time [as shown in chart 1.] 2 uncertainty is even higher for output gap projections, which are the only measures of output gap existing at the beginning of each year. for example, the real-time estimates of the output gap for 2005, published in spring by the european commission, the imf and the oecd, differ on average more than 25% from the output-gap projections that these institutions made at the end of 2004. and, if we add to the real-time measures of the output gap for 2005 the average size of revisions observed in the past, we can conclude that it may ex post turn out to be anything between -3.6% and +0.8%. … |
| Jürgen Stark: The global financial crisis and the role of monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-09-26 | 0.217 | typically, policies of short-term demand management rely heavily on inflation forecasts and output gap measures. experience, especially prior to the crisis, has revealed the risks of constructing policy on indicators and variables which are not sufficiently robust. let me take the output gap as an example. as the literature has clearly shown, the empirical proxies used to capture the output gap are subject to constant revisions.6 policy-makers who base their decisions mainly on such assessments of the cyclical position can be led very much astray. for instance, the great inflation of the 1970s occurred, to a large extent, due to measurement errors in the real-time estimates of the output gap combined with an overreaction to output gap measures when assessing the state of the economy.7 a… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial crisis? | Period_1 | 2010-04-13 | 0.216 | 20 see: a. orphanides and s. van norden (2002), “the unreliability of output gap estimates in real time”, review of economics and statistics 84(4), pp. 569–583; and a. orphanides and s. van norden (2005), “the reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time”, journal of money, credit and banking 37(3), pp. 583–601. 21 l. bini smaghi (2009), “monetary policy and asset prices”, freiburg university, 14 october 2009. 22 such as seasonal movements in food prices. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Scars that never were? Potential output and slack after the crisis | Period_2 | 2018-04-26 | 0.292 | hysteresis versus measurement my first slide shows the mysterious situation that has been the subject of much debate in recent months. output gaps across many advanced economies, including the euro area, are widely thought to have closed, or to close in the very near future. but on the right-hand side you can see that while global inflation – here proxied by the oecd average – has recovered from its mainly oil-driven lows in 2015 and 2016, it is stabilising just above 2% and has shown no convincing signs of accelerating. inflation excluding food and energy has hardly moved for the last four years. broadly speaking, this could mean one of two things.4 either the relationship between output and inflation – the phillips curve – has broken down. that is, firms are unwilling to increase pric… |
| Peter Praet: Lifting potential growth in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-04-27 | 0.269 | both the level and growth rate of potential fell steeply after 2008 and have barely recovered since. this is due to, first, a deep and protracted decline in investment – nearly 20% from peak to trough – which has caused the capital stock to grow more slowly and increased its average age. seen in historical perspective, this deceleration since 2008 has been substantially stronger than in previous recessions. of particular concern is the growth rate of the machinery and equipment stock, the most productive component, which has slowed the most. second, long spells of crisis-related unemployment have resulted in so-called “hysteresis effects” in the labour market – that is, where workers are unemployed for so long that they lose their skills and become unemployable. as result, structural un… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.266 | a uncertainty over the remaining degree of economic slack… euro area output gap (in percent of potential output) european commission, imf, oecd last observations: 2022 (imf); 2021 (ec, oecd). alternative measures of the output gap paint a different picture, however. b uncertainty over the remaining degree of economic slack… euro area output gap (in percent of potential output) |
| Benoît Cœuré: Scars or scratches? Hysteresis in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-05-24 | 0.228 | benoît cœuré: scars or scratches? hysteresis in the euro area speech by mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the international center for monetary and banking studies, geneva, 19 may 2017. * * * accompanying slides. one of the most interesting questions for policymakers to have emerged from the crisis is the strength of links between the demand and supply sides of the economy. 1the classical view – that only cyclical policies influence the former, and structural policies the latter – has been challenged in two ways: first, by the observation that long periods of weak demand can lead to rising structural unemployment and a permanently lower capital stock – the so-called hysteresis effects. and second, by corollary suggestion that stronger demand… |
| Peter Praet: Lifting potential growth in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-04-27 | 0.227 | lifting potential growth taking these improvements into account, the ecb is currently projecting the output gap to close and inflation to return close to 2% around 2017. this is expected to be driven by a rise in actual growth towards potential, rather than the other way around. yet this does not make the challenge of raising potential growth any less important – even on this improved trajectory the output gap will still close with high levels of structural unemployment, which would not be socially acceptable. monetary policy can play a role in supporting potential growth through the investment channel i have already described. moreover, if it is true that weak demand has reduced potential growth through hysteresis effects in the labour market, it could also be true that an acceleration… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.429 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.317 | euro area real gdp ecb staff macroeconomic projections and calculations. distinguishing between these two possible explanations in real time is no easy task. just as for the origins of the shocks, it requires a close look at the evidence. one way of doing this is by looking at output gap estimates. estimates from major forecasting institutions show some dispersion, but point in a similar direction: they all foresee a negative output gap in 2023 that does not fully close in 2024 (chart 8).[13] with regard to the current situation, estimating revisions of potential output in real time is tricky[14] but the latest european commission estimates foresee potential growth at 1.2% in 2023 and 1.3 % in 2024, with the level of potential output in 2024 being 5.6% higher than in 2019. |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.273 | euro area output gap measures of the euro area output gap across a suite of models (percentage of potential output) european commission’s autumn 2022 european economic forecast, oecd’s june 2022 economic outlook and imf’s november 2022 world economic outlook. quarterly estimates are interpolated from annual data. an alternative way of analysing whether supply capacity has fallen is to examine the possible effects of individual adverse supply shocks. ecb staff recently conducted a series of studies which suggest that shocks analogous to those seen in recent months are likely to have limited effects on potential. the studies found that even significant hypothetical negative shocks such as deglobalisation[15] – and the associated global supply chain disruptions – or a permanent and large i… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.191 | this argument does not deny historical examples of central banks over-estimating potential and setting policy inappropriately. there is strong evidence to suggest that part of the reason the federal reserve lost control of inflation in the 1970s is that it missed a slowdown in productivity growth and did not realise that the economy was overheating. however, the lessons learned from that period indicate that when uncertainty is high, it is safest not to base policy around large, real-time revisions in potential output or any other unobservable variable. indeed, those central banks that best navigated the 1970s energy shock – such as the deutsche bundesbank – reacted to changes in the output gap rather than estimates of levels. this was a more robust strategy because changes are less sub… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.156 | the complexity of monetary policy keynote speech by fabio panetta, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the cepr-eabcn conference on “finding the gap: output gap measurement in the euro area” held at the european university institute florence, 14 november 2022 the output gap – the difference between actual and potential output[1] – plays an important conceptual role in central banking. in normal conditions, the output gap represents a gauge of inflationary pressure by signalling the amount of slack in the economy.[2] in turn, this provides a yardstick against which central banks calibrate monetary policy. by steering demand so that actual output matches potential central banks can stabilise inflation around their targets. from the global financial crisis until the start of the p… |
The most representative speeches:
5.34 Topic 34: crisis; financial; financial crisis; pre; pre crisis
5.34.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | crisis | 1 | 0.2608186 | financial crisis | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 34 | financial | 2 | 0.1188962 | pre crisis | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 34 | financial crisis | 3 | 0.0713693 | crisis | 3 | 0.9994741 |
| 34 | pre | 4 | 0.0352963 | global financial crisis | 4 | 0.9992113 |
| 34 | pre crisis | 5 | 0.0251590 | pre | 5 | 0.9987729 |
| 34 | global | 6 | 0.0185763 | crisis level | 6 | 0.9985974 |
| 34 | global financial | 7 | 0.0163382 | pre crisis level | 7 | 0.9984222 |
| 34 | global financial crisis | 8 | 0.0146267 | global financial | 8 | 0.9981595 |
| 34 | cause | 9 | 0.0125202 | current crisis | 9 | 0.9978080 |
| 34 | post | 10 | 0.0105454 | post | 10 | 0.9975461 |
| 34 | main | 11 | 0.0102821 | post crisis | 11 | 0.9969758 |
| 34 | major | 12 | 0.0090973 | onset | 12 | 0.9968010 |
| 34 | return | 13 | 0.0076491 | paradigm | 13 | 0.9964512 |
| 34 | crisis level | 14 | 0.0073858 | downturn | 14 | 0.9962323 |
| 34 | pre crisis level | 15 | 0.0069908 | severe | 15 | 0.9962318 |
5.34.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.270 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.176 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Central banking after the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-02-23 | 0.174 | ladies and gentlemen, the global financial crisis has been the most severe financial and economic debacle since the great depression of the 1930s. central banks, and governments played a key role in containing the impact of the crisis by preventing a global economic and financial meltdown. at the same time, the crisis – which, by the way, is not over yet – may have important implications for central banking. this is what i will reflect upon in today’s lecture. |
| Jürgen Stark: The global financial crisis and the role of central banking | Period_1 | 2011-04-13 | 0.173 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: The global financial crisis and the role of monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-09-26 | 0.150 | the challenges ahead and the role for monetary policy the global financial crisis is far from over. by now the global financial crisis has gone through a number of different phases. initially the crisis started in the sub-prime mortgage market during the summer of 2007, and became very intense in september 2008 with the default of |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Monetary policy in uncertain times - the European Central Bank and the crisis | Period_2 | 2016-09-15 | 0.157 | uncertain times looking back over the recent past, we see a decade of crisis and uncertainty; we see a whole series of “black swans” – events that could not be foreseen. we see how the insolvency of an american investment bank triggered a global financial crisis. we see a global economic crisis, a european sovereign debt crisis and we see how the people of the united kingdom voted to leave the european union. brexit was an event that few people had reckoned with, surely; an event that has heightened economic uncertainty and that may damage the economy. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Heterogeneity and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-04-02 | 0.127 | dispersion in real per capita private consumption across euro area countries was twice its historical levels for a period of more than three years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. by the same standard, the effects of recession and financial crisis are hardly visible for the united states. monetary policy cannot eliminate such persistent differences, but it can accommodate them. we have proven that a carefully calibrated package of non-standard policy measures, including our targeted long-term refinancing operations, asset purchases, forward guidance and negative rates, can successfully overcome even significant causes of heterogeneity, such as the impairment of the bank lending channel across large parts of the single currency area in the wake of the euro area’s sovere… |
| Mario Draghi: The state and prospects of the euro area recovery | Period_2 | 2016-11-28 | 0.119 | mario draghi: the state and prospects of the euro area recovery speech by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, at the european banking congress, frankfurt am main, 18 november 2016. * * * since the onset of the global financial crisis, 2016 has been the first full year where gdp in the euro area has been above its pre-crisis level. it has taken around 7.5 years to get there. the economy is now recovering at a moderate, but steady, pace. employment has grown by more than four million since its trough in 2013. and the recovery has become more broad-based, with less difference in economic performance across countries. what we have now to ask is what are the factors that have allowed the recovery to gather steam, and whether we have reason to believe that they are suffic… |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary autonomy in a globalised world | Period_2 | 2021-04-27 | 0.117 | second, even with the ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support, our recovery is expected to be slow and incomplete in terms of both growth and inflation. in fact, the euro area economy is projected to return to its pre-crisis gdp level only in the middle of 2022 and to remain below its pre-crisis trend (chart 9, left panel).[24] gdp in the united states, in contrast, is projected to recover both its pre-crisis level this year and its trend thereafter (chart 9, right panel). the euro area and japan are the only major advanced economies where inflation is projected to remain subdued over the medium term. |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.116 | the adult lives of the students gathered here today have been marked by crisis: a global financial crisis of a magnitude that many, more fortunate, generations have never had to experience; a european economic crisis that has lasted too long, and from which we are only gradually emerging; and a series of critical situations that has significantly tested the solidity of european monetary union. everyone has paid a very high price, but particularly younger generations. the crisis has laid bare the imbalances that built up in the preceding years, which were certainly due to serious errors in the economic policies of member states, but also to shortcomings in europe’s institutional architecture. those shortcomings in turn contributed to making the policy response to the crisis slow and cumb… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in an uncertain world | Period_3 | 2022-03-17 | 0.161 | we have reacted to this new environment by increasing our optionality and emphasising that we will act gradually and flexibly in order to deliver our mandate of price stability. we have also outlined a conditional path towards policy normalisation if the necessary conditions are satisfied. and, at the same time, we are mindful of the risks ahead, and we are ready to revisit our plan if the incoming data require us to do so. our outlook today can be neatly summed up in the words of maya angelou: we are “hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.” 1. for example, from the onset of the great financial crisis, it took seven years for euro area gdp to return to its pre-crisis level. today, gdp has already surpassed its pre-pandemic level. 2. after th… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.118 | then, the pandemic hit, which led to a highly unusual recession followed by a highly atypical recovery. in conventional business cycles, the depth of the slump normally determines the pace of the recovery. after exceptionally deep recessions, both demand and supply are often impaired for many years. from the onset of the great financial crisis, for example, it took seven years for euro area gdp to get back to its pre-crisis level. growth never reconnected with the trend we thought possible before 2008. |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.108 | first, the scale of the fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic demonstrated the strength of the commitment to delivering macro-financial stability, rather than seeing a return of the pre-pandemic dynamics that acted as a powerful anti-inflationary force after the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis (the twin crises between 2008 and 2013). importantly, this included substantial policy action at both eu and national level; with the former including the sure programme, extra funding for the european investment bank and, most significantly, the ngeu initiative. in particular, the medium-term nature of the ngeu programme has provided an important anchor for medium-term economic prospects, especially for the main beneficiaries. |
| Christine Lagarde: Finding resilience in times of uncertainty | Period_3 | 2022-03-31 | 0.106 | christine lagarde: finding resilience in times of uncertainty speech by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at an event organised by the central bank of cyprus, nicosia, 30 march 2022. * * * constantine p. cavafy’s famous poem “ithaca” starts with the words: “when you set out on your journey to ithaca, pray that the road is long, full of adventure, full of knowledge.” and indeed, these words capture well the story of cyprus in modern times. it is a story full of adventure, with many obstacles along the way. and yet, your people have overcome them all, gaining in knowledge, and emerging stronger and more resilient each time. your nation rebounded after the invasion of 1974 and subsequent partition of the country, using its agility and acumen to become a hub for … |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.095 | 2.3 lessons learned the experience of the recent crisis has left us with two main lessons. first, situations requiring a joint monetary policy and fiscal policy response may arise more frequently than previously thought.[18] during the pandemic, fiscal policies and our independent monetary policy have reinforced each other.[19] this prevented a repetition of the euro area’s experience in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when procyclical amplification of financial stress and inadequate support for demand resulted in a persistent output gap, high unemployment, financial instability and too low inflation. second, for emu to be viable, european policies must be conducted for the benefit of all member countries. the new model embraced by european authorities during the pandemic … |
The most representative speeches:
5.35 Topic 35: expectation; inflation expectation; survey; base; measure
5.35.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | expectation | 1 | 0.1178150 | market base | 1 | 0.9992114 |
| 35 | inflation expectation | 2 | 0.0617309 | forecaster | 2 | 0.9988604 |
| 35 | survey | 3 | 0.0578895 | base measure | 3 | 0.9987723 |
| 35 | base | 4 | 0.0523836 | professional | 4 | 0.9985102 |
| 35 | measure | 5 | 0.0289512 | professional forecaster | 5 | 0.9984644 |
| 35 | market | 6 | 0.0237013 | survey | 6 | 0.9977184 |
| 35 | market base | 7 | 0.0229330 | survey base | 7 | 0.9976336 |
| 35 | term inflation | 8 | 0.0179392 | respondent | 8 | 0.9971054 |
| 35 | indicator | 9 | 0.0174270 | market base measure | 9 | 0.9971040 |
| 35 | consumer | 10 | 0.0165307 | inflation link | 10 | 0.9965809 |
| 35 | term inflation expectation | 11 | 0.0162746 | expectation | 11 | 0.9963067 |
| 35 | forecaster | 12 | 0.0137137 | inflation expectation | 12 | 0.9961315 |
| 35 | professional | 13 | 0.0125613 | base inflation | 13 | 0.9960980 |
| 35 | base measure | 14 | 0.0116650 | survey base measure | 14 | 0.9958739 |
| 35 | forecast | 15 | 0.0111528 | actual | 15 | 0.9957921 |
5.35.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.311 | indicates (slide 12). all survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations stood at 1.9% in april. financial instruments are the third way of obtaining information about market participants’ inflation expectations. they also contain information about inflation risks, since investors not only demand compensation for the level of expected inflation but also for bearing the risk associated with the inflation outlook. in practice, yields on inflation-linked bonds are used as a basis to derive indicators of inflation expectations. 7 however, since the beginning of the crisis, bond markets have been exposed to significant disturbances that have made the measurement of inflation expectations and the associated risks more difficult than usual. thus, it is useful to complement this me… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy and private expectations | Period_1 | 2005-02-28 | 0.258 | direct measures of inflation expectations in the euro area are provided by a number of surveys. these are regularly analysed in the ecb’s monthly bulletin. one comes from the ecb survey of professional forecasters. this is a quarterly survey conducted by the ecb. it asks experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the european union to forecast euro area inflation up to five years ahead. importantly, survey respondents also provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts in the form of ranges. the dispersion and asymmetry around the mean provide useful information about shifts in inflation expectations that might be in the pipeline. another measure of inflation expectations is provided by the survey conducted by consensus… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.237 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European financial integration and the management of inflation expectations by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2005-04-21 | 0.231 | 3.2 monitoring a wide range of expectation indicators the ecb does not rely on a single indicator when monitoring expectations but rather takes a comprehensive and pragmatic approach that balances off the information provided by various sources. by their very nature, inflation expectations are not directly observable or measurable. furthermore, the way private agents form and update their view on the likely developments of an economic variable, including inflation, is likely to be different in important dimensions across different types of agents. from this perspective, relying on a single measure of expected inflation in the context of its assessment of the monetary policy stance may mislead the central bank, even if that measure is constructed on the basis of the central bank’s own in… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Commentary on “Fifty years of monetary policy - what have we learned?” by Adam Cagliarini, Christopher Kent and Glenn Stevens | Period_1 | 2010-02-11 | 0.230 | : measures of longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area percent per annum, 5-day averages of daily data note: data in percent; beir denotes the break-even inflation rate; spf denotes the ecb survey of professional forecasters. source: consensus economics, reuters, ecb calculations. |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2015-11-10 | 0.514 | recent evolution of inflation expectations in the euro area since 2005, there has been a broad degree of co-movement between survey-based (ecb survey of professional forecasters, (ecb spf)) and market-based measures of inflation expectations, although the latter have tended to fluctuate more widely. both survey-based and market-based longer-term inflation expectations moved down, in 2009 and 2010, before they both increased again in 2011 and 2012, only to subsequently decline more substantially in 2013 and 2014, with a partial rebound so far in 2015. the scale of movements in market- based measures however, has been significantly larger than those from surveys – the ratio of the two scalings is four-to-one [4:1]. focusing on the recent period, although both survey-based and market-based… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Assessing the new phase of unconventional monetary policy at the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2015-08-28 | 0.340 | expectations of inflation five years ahead, as expressed in the ecb survey of professional forecasters, fell from 1.98% in the first quarter of 2013 to 1.77% in the first quarter of 2015. the five-year inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead fell from 2.4% to 1.5% over the same period. since january 2015 this declining trend has been reversed. both market-based and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have recovered from their lows. while broadly similar dynamics in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have been observed in other countries, the decline in the euro area somewhat preceded them and was more prolonged. i will now turn briefly to macro developments, both in terms of inflation and economic growth. |
| Peter Praet: Current issues of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2014-07-04 | 0.280 | how acute is the risk of supply shocks morphing into demand shocks? what is our assessment of the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the euro area? let me emphasise three elements. first, long-term inflation expectations based on surveys remain in line with our focal point for price stability, but market expectations for inflation have fallen. market participants seem to factor in a longer period of low inflation. since summer 2012, following movements in hicp inflation, market-based measures of inflation expectations have been on a declining trend. in particular, declines have been observed in shorter-term inflation expectations. at this juncture, market-based inflation expectations suggest a rather slow increase in inflation over the next years. second, the decline … |
| Benoît Cœuré: Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-15 | 0.253 | benoît cœuré: inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy speech by mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at an event organised by the safe policy center, frankfurt am main, 11 july 2019. * * * stable inflation expectations at levels consistent with price stability provide an important nominal anchor for the economy. they reduce inflation persistence and curb harmful macroeconomic volatility. there is compelling empirical evidence suggesting that increased clarity about central banks’ mandates, their reaction functions and inflation aims has helped anchor inflation expectations and reduce their variability around the communicated inflation aim despite significant shocks to inflation in both directions.1 however, persistently low infla… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Understanding inflation dynamics and monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2015-11-10 | 0.235 | 2013, appear to be in line with the factors cited by spf respondents. most recently, the analysis suggests that the decline in longer-term spf expectations may reflect developments in actual hicp inflation, market-based measures of inflation expectations and wage growth. a model-based analysis of the determinants of long-term market-based inflation expectations shows that the main determinants of the five-year implied forward inflation linked swap rate five years ahead (5y5y ilsr) are real gdp and monetary policy. real gdp is estimated to provide an overall positive contribution of about +20bps. monetary policy is proxied by the eonia 1y1y rate (that gauges the market sentiment about future ecb policy interest rates) and the size of the eurosystem balance sheet’s assets. the latter refl… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.344 | employ various proxy measures. one method is to use market-based measures of inflation compensation. immediately prior to the pandemic, estimates derived from market prices pointed to medium-term inflation expectations of only 1.1%, substantially below our medium-term inflation target (chart 6, left panel). with the onset of the pandemic and the severe disruption to economic activity, these expectations declined to nearly 0.5% in march 2020. in that regard, the recent increase in market-based inflation expectations along the entire maturity distribution to levels closer to our target is a welcome development. it signals that investors have become more sanguine about the euro area inflation outlook without pointing — so far at least — to fears of more persistent inflation overshoots that… |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.332 | longer-term inflation expectations from professional forecaster surveys (annual percentage changes) == survey of professional forecasters (4-5 years ahead) == consensus economics (5 years ahead) == eurozone barometer (4 years ahead) m= survey of monetary analysts (long-term) == weighted average of surveys l2 2.0 ————————————_ ee —_er— eee eee eaeeer—_e—er—ee——e——e—_er—eaerer—er—e—e——e_eer ere oer = - lz ff a etl et ~ — ——— 16 ts 1.4 jan-20 jul-20 jan-21 jul-21 jan-22 sources: survey of professional forecasters, ecb survey of monetary analysis, consensus economics, eurozone barometer and ecb staff calculations. notes: the weighted average is calculated using the average number of respondents from each survey as weights. the latest observations is for the first quarter of… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.302 | realised and expected level of hicp and hicp excluding energy and food survey of monetary analysts. note: expectation is based on the median from the april 2022 survey of monetary analysts. in terms of the evolution of longer-term inflation expectations, charts 10-12 present a range of indicators. in relation to the survey of professional forecasters, chart 10 conveys two messages. first, over the course of 2021, there was a significant re-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations at our two per cent target: the distribution in the q1 2021 survey was similar to the prevailing pattern for an extended period before the pandemic with the modal expectation at around 1.6 per cent, whereas the distributions in the q1 2022 and q2 2022 surveys show the modal expectation at 2.0 per cent an… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.291 | consumer inflation expectations rise but fall back consumer expectations one year ahead consumer expectations three years ahead (annual percentage changes) (annual percentage changes) = consumer expectations, 1 year ahead - jan 2021 w consumer expectations, 3 years ahead - jan 2021 18 = consumer expectations, 1 year ahead - jan 2022 ; = consumer expectations, 3 years ahead - jan 2022 . 3 0.2 0.2 | 0.0 = =- call | wil - i . ot 00 ® #– veal at = _ ” ot _— v“~ sue £- © 2 & fa o2 © on ® fs ® sf b& 8g note: these data are derived from responses to the quantitative question on inflation expectations in the ecb’s consumer expectations survey. chart 14 inflation expectations are re-anchoring at 2% long-term inflation point forecasts long-term inflation expectations (percentages) (percentages… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.275 | shows the three-year-ahead inflation expectations from the consumer expectations survey. the left panel shows that there has been a marked shift in the march results – having been quite stable at around 2 per cent, the median expectation moved up to 2.9 per cent. in particular, there was a shift in the proportion of participants reporting expected inflation rates above 4 per cent. in line with the literature on household inflation expectations, the most important signal is conveyed by the shift in the distribution of beliefs about future inflation more than the precise level of expected inflation. |
The most representative speeches:
5.36 Topic 36: strategy; policy strategy; monetary policy strategy; ecb monetary; ecb monetary policy
5.36.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | strategy | 1 | 0.1907337 | policy strategy | 1 | 0.9998248 |
| 36 | policy strategy | 2 | 0.0869743 | monetary policy strategy | 2 | 0.9998247 |
| 36 | monetary policy strategy | 3 | 0.0848568 | strategy | 3 | 0.9996494 |
| 36 | ecb monetary | 4 | 0.0542231 | ecb monetary | 4 | 0.9994743 |
| 36 | ecb monetary policy | 5 | 0.0523879 | ecb monetary policy | 5 | 0.9994743 |
| 36 | review | 6 | 0.0346006 | strategy review | 6 | 0.9986856 |
| 36 | element | 7 | 0.0211895 | review | 7 | 0.9985979 |
| 36 | conduct | 8 | 0.0194955 | guide | 8 | 0.9979849 |
| 36 | framework | 9 | 0.0137075 | evaluation | 9 | 0.9979843 |
| 36 | reflect | 10 | 0.0135664 | element | 10 | 0.9978962 |
| 36 | strategy review | 11 | 0.0130017 | ecb strategy | 11 | 0.9970187 |
| 36 | guide | 12 | 0.0121547 | conduct | 12 | 0.9966663 |
| 36 | implication | 13 | 0.0101783 | policy strategy review | 13 | 0.9966655 |
| 36 | provide | 14 | 0.0083431 | announce | 14 | 0.9962310 |
| 36 | announce | 15 | 0.0082019 | clarification | 15 | 0.9961399 |
5.36.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.273 | the 2003 review of the strategy: confirmation and clarification in december 2002 the ecb announced its decision to conduct a comprehensive review of its strategy. this decision was sometimes wrongly interpreted by observers as an implicit indication of dissatisfaction with the experience thus far. in fact, the opposite was true. it was natural that, after more than four years of experience, the governing council of the ecb wanted to look back and reflect in a systematic way on the experience gained and the comments of external observers. indeed, we conduct monetary policy in a complex and changing environment. undertaking such an exercise in stock taking and reflection is essential to ensure a satisfactory evaluation of the strategy. as i will explain, the result of this evaluation demo… |
| Making monetary policy in a broad monetary union (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 12 Oct 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-10-18 | 0.258 | the ecb’s monetary policy strategy the institutional setup provided by the treaty, therefore, ensures a very solid foundation for building and maintaining a high level of credibility for the ecb and for the successful conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. in the end, however, it will be the central bank’s own performance that will determine its credibility. this naturally leads to the following how should price stability be maintained? this question is addressed by the ecb’s monetary policy strategy, which was adopted by the governing council of the ecb and announced in october 1998. the strategy provides the framework for conducting monetary policy in the euro area. first and foremost, the ecb’s monetary policy strategy provides a quantitative definition of the primary objective… |
| Otmar Issing: The ECB and the euro - the first five years | Period_1 | 2004-05-21 | 0.241 | bruggemann, a., p. donati and a. warne (2003), is the demand for euro area m3 stable?, in: o. issing (ed.), background studies for the ecb’s evaluation of its monetary policy strategy, ecb, pp. 245-300. calza, a. and j. sousa (2003), why has money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? a literature review, in: o. issing (ed.), background studies for the ecb’s evaluation of its monetary policy strategy, ecb, pp. 229-244. calza, a., d. gerdesmeier and j. levy (2001), euro area money demand: measuring the opportunity costs appropriately, imf working paper, no. 01/179. camba-méndez, g. (2003), the definition of price stability: choosing a price measure, in: o. issing (ed.), background studies for the ecb’s evaluation of its monetary policy strategy, ecb, pp. 31-42… |
| Lucas Papademos: Policy-making in EMU - strategies, rules and discretion | Period_1 | 2004-04-23 | 0.204 |
|
| Otmar Issing: Evaluation of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy | Period_1 | 2003-07-27 | 0.181 | why an evaluation of the strategy? many people were surprised by the announcement, last december, that the ecb would undertake an evaluation of its monetary policy strategy. some took it as an implicit indication that we were dissatisfied by the strategy and prepared to change it. the opposite is true. when our strategy was announced, on october 1998, the ecb had not yet assumed its responsibility of conducting monetary policy for the euro area. the strategy we designed was a novel one, suited for the special characteristics of the euro area and its central bank, and different in a number of respects from other current and past strategies. it incorporated the best judgement and experience of central banks and the key lessons of economic research, but it lacked one fundamental element: t… |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.261 | 30/09/2020 the monetary policy strategy review: some preliminary considerations the monetary policy strategy review: some preliminary considerations speech by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, at the “ecb and its watchers xxi” conference frankfurt am main, 30 september 2020 thank you for inviting me to address this conference. this morning, i would like to speak to you about the ecb’s strategy review, the reasons we are conducting it, and our expectations as a result of it. since 2003, when we last conducted a strategy review, the euro area and the world economy have undergone profound changes. the consensus that has governed monetary policy worldwide has been challenged on a number of fronts. |
| Isabel Schnabel: COVID-19 and monetary policy - reinforcing prevailing challenges | Period_2 | 2020-11-24 | 0.167 | in the euro area, the coincidence of a protracted period of low inflation, sluggish potential growth and highly accommodative financial conditions raises important questions as to how the governing council should interpret its mandate and how it should conduct and communicate its operations in a way that credibly conveys its strong commitment to achieving price stability while minimising any adverse consequences of its policies for society. these questions form important elements of our monetary policy strategy review. the outcome will be a framework that reflects our understanding of how the economy has changed since we conducted our last strategy review and ensures that monetary policy will continue to faithfully serve the people of europe. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/202… |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economic outlook and the current monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2020-02-20 | 0.156 | overall, the present monetary policy stimulus lends substantial support to growth and inflation developments, buffering to a large degree the negative impulse from global factors. indeed, the unfolding of our monetary policy measures will ensure that financial conditions will remain very favourable, shielding the economy against the external headwinds and laying out the conditions for the build-up of domestic price pressures. at the same time, we are attentive to the possible side effects of the present monetary policy measures. these need to be carefully and continuously monitored. the ecb strategy review in january, the governing council decided to launch a review of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy. after more than 16 years, it was time to conduct a thorough review taking stocks of… |
| Mario Draghi: Delivering a symmetric mandate with asymmetric tools - monetary policy in a context of low interest rates | Period_2 | 2016-06-08 | 0.143 | 1 see evaluation of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy. 2 coenen, g. (2003), “zero lower bound: is it a problem in the euro area?”, ecb working paper series no 269, september 2003. 3 see evaluation of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy. 4 see draghi, m. (2016), “addressing the causes of low interest rates”, introductory speech held at a panel on “the future of financial markets: a changing view of asia” at the annual meeting of the asian development bank, frankfurt am main, 2 may 2016 |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.139 | 07/10/2020 the ecb’s monetary policy in the pandemic: meeting the challenge [9] see lane, p.r. (2020), “the pandemic emergency: the three challenges for the ecb”, speech at the jackson hole economic policy symposium “navigating the decade ahead: implications for monetary policy”, hosted by the federal reserve bank of kansas city. [10] for more details on the strategy review, see the speech by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, “the monetary policy strategy review: some preliminary considerations” at the “ecb and its watchers” conference on 30 september 2020. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp201006~e1d38a1ccc.en.html 12/12 |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.149 | econometric estimates of the euro area nominal natural rate of interest r° (percentage per annum) range of all natural rate estimates mmm range of smoother estimates 6 ex ©|s 1-year forward rate 9 years ahead wgem report “the natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy”, occasional paper, no 217; ajevskis (2020); brand, goy, lemke (2020); brand, mazelis (2019); fiorentini, galesi, pérez-quirds, sentana (2018); geiger and schupp (2018); holston, laubach, williams (2017); jarocinski (2017); johannsen and mertens (2021), refinitiv. notes: the natural nominal rate estimates are constructed by adding the inflation target of 2% to all real values. ranges span point estimates across models to reflect model uncertainty and no other source of r* uncertainty. t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: New narratives on monetary policy – the spectre of inflation | Period_3 | 2021-10-12 | 0.137 | 1 schnabel, i. (2020), “narratives about the ecb’s monetary policy – reality or fiction?“, speech at the juristische studiengesellschaft, karlsruhe, 11 february. 2 the ecb website provides detailed information on the new monetary policy strategy. for a description of the key elements of the new strategy, see schnabel, i. (2021), “a new strategy for a changing world“, speech at the virtual financial statements series hosted by the peterson institute for international economics, frankfurt am main, 14 july. 3 see also schnabel, i. (2020), “covid-19 and monetary policy: reinforcing prevailing challenges”, speech at the bank of finland monetary policy webinar “new challenges to monetary policy strategies”, frankfurt am main, 24 8/9 |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.094 | frank elderson: proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the european central bank concrete keynote speech by mr frank elderson, member of the executive board of the european central bank and vice-chair of the supervisory board of the ecb, at the institute of international & european affairs webinar, frankfurt am main, 24 march 2022. * * * as no doubt all of you joining me here today, we at the european central bank look with horror at the distressing reports from ukraine. the human suffering and destruction we see in our part of the world remains difficult to fathom. our hearts and minds are with the people of ukraine. with those who are still in harm’s way, and with those who have been forced to seek refuge elsewhere, mainly in the european … |
| Christine Lagarde: Commitment and persistence - monetary policy in the economic recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.074 | finally, although the main driver of higher inflation, the price of energy, is likely to stay elevated over the coming months, it should stabilise in the course of 2022 — as it normally has done historically after a sharp rise. futures prices for oil, gas and electricity point to a decline in the coming period, and gas prices have already fallen by about 21% since their record highs in october. however, prices remain volatile and there is some uncertainty over the longer-run outlook: for example, a global shift away from emission-intensive energy could lead to a sustained demand for gas as a transition fuel, resulting in further periods of price volatility.!12! the outlook for monetary policy over the medium term so, how should monetary policy respond? as | have already indicated, in ou… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.072 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.37 Topic 37: market; expectation; participant; market participant; agent
5.37.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | market | 1 | 0.1010686 | participant | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 37 | expectation | 2 | 0.0557253 | market participant | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 37 | participant | 3 | 0.0526840 | agent | 3 | 0.9994743 |
| 37 | market participant | 4 | 0.0443895 | economic agent | 4 | 0.9989484 |
| 37 | agent | 5 | 0.0432835 | behaviour | 5 | 0.9985106 |
| 37 | future | 6 | 0.0337448 | market expectation | 6 | 0.9981595 |
| 37 | change | 7 | 0.0266945 | understand | 7 | 0.9978088 |
| 37 | understand | 8 | 0.0213031 | financial market participant | 8 | 0.9974559 |
| 37 | behaviour | 9 | 0.0210266 | formation | 9 | 0.9970636 |
| 37 | economic agent | 10 | 0.0195059 | surprise | 10 | 0.9969335 |
| 37 | good | 11 | 0.0170176 | private agent | 11 | 0.9959599 |
| 37 | view | 12 | 0.0139763 | circumstance | 12 | 0.9958368 |
| 37 | general | 13 | 0.0136998 | general | 13 | 0.9956142 |
| 37 | information | 14 | 0.0132850 | rational | 14 | 0.9955653 |
| 37 | uncertainty | 15 | 0.0125938 | future | 15 | 0.9952540 |
5.37.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy and private expectations | Period_1 | 2005-02-28 | 0.250 | central banks’ long quest for macroeconomic stability 30 years ago the formation of expectations moved from a peripheral area of theoretical enquiry into the very core of macroeconomic thinking. today, the economics of expectations and macroeconomics itself are largely coextensive. the trigger of this transformation was, as is well known, the rational expectations revolution, which started with the pioneering work by robert lucas (1972, 1973) and thomas sargent and neil wallace (1975).1 the upshot of the rational expectations hypothesis is that – at least in a world in which information is largely publicly available and speedily disseminated – individuals should not make predictable errors when formulating conjectures about their future. this does not imply that individuals will invaria… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.217 | scenario that is considered most plausible, given the conditioning assumptions, for purposes of the central bank’s own internal assessment of the macroeconomic outlook. as agents’ expectations shape the market reaction to new economic data and to the central bank’s own policy actions, they embed information that the central bank cannot neglect or grossly underrate in its own analysis. the difficulty lies in devising a prudent way to factor such situations into policy. and here is where the fundamental tension inherent in our profession comes in. on the one hand we want to keep our eyes on the fundamentals and avoid being misled or intoxicated by what could well be noise and unfounded overreactions. on the other hand, excess endogenous volatility in private expectations could indeed prov… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation, expectations and current challenges to monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-10-14 | 0.203 | this requires intense communication with market participants, of at least two sorts. first, the central bank has the duty to warn market participants when their own behaviour is not consistent with price stability and may lead to a tightening of monetary policy which would lead to a worse outcome for all. this has to involve communication with the public at large: unions, employers, budgetary authorities. this type of communication is in the interest of all, since any inconsistency would lead in the end to a worse result in terms of economic growth. it is also in the interest of the central bank as price stability can be more easily maintained if agents act consistently. warning economic agents openly about their behaviour is not easy and does not make central banks popular. these warni… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.175 | the advantages of a rule-like behaviour at first thought, a “discretionary” response to shocks might seem exactly what one would expect of a professional central banker. after all, each economic contingency is a unique combination of circumstances that, in its own way, is unprecedented, and will probably never repeat itself again in that precise form. so, each new contingency would seem to command a different, tailor-made response on the part of monetary authorities. there is some grain of truth to this. but decades of reflections on the role of expectations in macroeconomics have taught us that monetary policy is not a sequence of isolated policy actions. when forming their expectations, agents seek to capture the general pattern of monetary policies, and it is that pattern that matter… |
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.168 | market expectations of future inflation. more analysis is needed to understand this discrepancy – and some promising work has already been done at the ecb in this respect. more generally, research aiming at incorporating empirically plausible theories of expectations formation into our models is of particular relevance. this will require the introduction and testing of hypotheses of how economic agents learn about the evolving structure and functioning of the economy it and may lead to a relaxation of the assumption of the representative agent which is characteristic of most of our models, including the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) models, and thus to allow for the heterogeneity of agents and expectations. |
| Vítor Constâncio: Interview in Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2016-01-13 | 0.136 | only rise when growth and inflation pick up again. that is precisely what we are trying to achieve. at the beginning of december, the ecb’s governing council decided on further monetary easing. the financial markets were disappointed; they had expected more. the volatility was bigger than it has been for years. what lessons does the ecb draw from this? that was undoubtedly the largest gulf so far between what we intended to do and what the markets expected. both sides need to learn lessons. the markets need to understand our decision-making processes better, and must not allow themselves to get carried away by wishful thinking. but we also have to communicate better. we made the decision that we wanted to make. however, we did not want to give the markets such a surprise. what does “com… |
| Luis de Guindos: Communication, expectations and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-08-27 | 0.132 | become known as the “echo chamber effect”. as hyun shin from the bis has put it, “the louder the central bank talks, the more likely it is to hear its own echo.”4 this is particularly prominent in times when the central bank gives strong forward guidance. ecb research has shown that in such circumstances, market expectations become “cemented”, i.e. they do no longer respond to news about the macro economy.5 this is something we need to keep in mind when designing our communication strategy and when reading the signals from financial markets – the more forward guidance we give, the less informative are market signals for gauging the state and the expected evolution of the economy. a second point is that even if central bank transparency and communication has helped anchoring market-based… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Developing models for policy analysis in central banks | Period_2 | 2017-09-28 | 0.128 | consumption.10 in typical representative-agent models, consumption behaviour is captured by an euler equation, an inter-temporal optimality condition that links today’s level of consumption to expected consumption in the next period and further into the future. in its linearised form, it does neither envisage that consumers face idiosyncratic (household-specific) and uninsurable income uncertainty, nor that uncertainty interacts with credit or liquidity constraints. this is in stark contrast to recent research that emphasises the importance of precautionary saving, liquidity constraints, leverage and of heterogeneity, including heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume.11 compared to simple representative-agent models, the ecb-mc clearly marks an improvement. the consumption fun… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-15 | 0.119 | the first is that financial market participants are not particularly good at predicting future inflation. i’m not claiming that central banks are particularly better. you can see this on my next slide. but as you can see on the following one, financial market participants repeatedly failed to correctly project even the very near-term outlook for inflation in the euro area. 6 / 13 |
| Yves Mersch: Interview with Reuters | Period_2 | 2018-03-22 | 0.116 | well, other things being equal, it would be shallower. another explanation for low wage growth is that there is some backward looking behaviour in the wage-setting mechanism and in inflation expectations. for the time being i take an open view. monetary policy also plays a role. our asset purchases programme has a minimum horizon of end september, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until we see a sustained adjustment in inflation. it is true that when we communicate about what happens beyond september, we want to have confirmation of data. things are going in the right direction but there are a number of uncertainties. so the message is patience, persistence and prudence. when do you need to communicate what happens beyond september? it can’t be on the very last day, but i argue t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.065 | at our last governing council meeting, we concluded that, in spite of significant uncertainty, there is still good reason to believe that euro area inflation will decline visibly over the course of next year and gradually fall back below our target of two per cent in the medium term, meaning that the conditions for raising interest rates, as set out in our forward guidance, are very unlikely to be met next year. financial market participants, too, expect a considerable and lasting decline in inflation in 2022 (slide 11). there is no evidence that markets, or professional forecasters, expect runaway inflation, or inflation dynamics even remotely similar to what we observed in the 1970s. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in the euro area - the next phase | Period_3 | 2022-08-31 | 0.057 | (and prospects at the individual level) suggest a high degree of concern about a potential economic slowdown, a general recognition that supply shocks will generate both near-term inflation surges and a decline in the economic outlook, which in turn will constrain the persistence of inflation. this profile is consistent with a profile in which market participants, experts and households broadly understand (albeit to varying degrees) that supply shocks and temporary factors have pushed inflation up to the current high levels but that these factors are expected to fade over time, reinforced by the understanding that monetary policy actions (as captured by the expectations of substantial rate hikes in the coming months) will ensure the return of inflation to target. in terms of the feedbac… |
| Isabel Schnabel: New narratives on monetary policy – the spectre of inflation | Period_3 | 2021-10-12 | 0.052 | the recovery and be most harmful to those who are already suffering from the current spike in inflation. finally, i will explain why the higher inflation we are seeing now may actually be positive news. there are good reasons to assume that the current constellation of fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area may finally chart the path out of the low interest rate environment. new monetary policy strategy as yardstick and compass the assessment of current and future inflation lies at the heart of our monetary policy decisions that we take to maintain price stability in the euro area as a whole. about every six weeks – and most recently last week – we look at a broad range of economic indicators to assess the future path of inflation. so how do we assess the current situation? will th… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.041 | euro area headline and core hicp inflation (annual percentage changes) om hicp om hicpx 3 | | covid-19 outbreak | 4 : 1999-2012 3 avg: 2.07 2020-2021 | | / 2013-2019 aes = wv f __ a avg: 0.95 (vn oo rama wee 7 y p 1 | —— ma = _ tm awit -3 1999-2012 ; avg: 1.53 mw 0 ) ) + 2013-2019 2020-2021 al avg: 0.98 avg: 0.89 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 source: eurostat and ecb calculations. latest observation: september 2021 (flash estimate). moreover, inflation repeatedly surprised on the downside relative to our in-house staff projections before the pandemic (chart 2). other international institutions and financial market participants also continuously overpredicted future inflation developments. chart 2 eurosystem headline annual inflation projections over time (annual percentage changes) wee… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.040 | monthly flow of net purchases under app and pepp ecb. notes: the chart shows aggregated net purchases for all public and private app and pepp programmes at month-end. the latest observation is for 30 april 2022. the values for may and june 2022 were inferred from the ecb’s most recent monetary policy announcement (14 april 2022). furthermore, as shown in chart 14, there has been a remarkable shift in the yield curve during the initial months of 2022. in part, this reflects the re-pricing of risk premia in the current highly-uncertain environment. in part, it reflects the anticipation of market participants that the rate forward guidance criteria of the ecb are closer to being fulfilled and that the medium-term inflation outlook will call for a normalisation of policy rates over time. |
The most representative speeches:
5.38 Topic 38: unite; federal; reserve; difference; federal reserve
5.38.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | unite | 1 | 0.1202194 | unite | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 38 | federal | 2 | 0.0470150 | federal | 2 | 0.9994742 |
| 38 | reserve | 3 | 0.0468403 | feed | 3 | 0.9990363 |
| 38 | difference | 4 | 0.0356588 | federal reserve | 4 | 0.9989485 |
| 38 | federal reserve | 5 | 0.0339116 | unite kingdom | 5 | 0.9989476 |
| 38 | feed | 6 | 0.0230795 | japan | 6 | 0.9989047 |
| 38 | include | 7 | 0.0223806 | reserve | 7 | 0.9987727 |
| 38 | figure | 8 | 0.0209829 | kingdom | 8 | 0.9987723 |
| 38 | good | 9 | 0.0202841 | cpi | 9 | 0.9978069 |
| 38 | japan | 10 | 0.0202841 | atlantic | 10 | 0.9976332 |
| 38 | explain | 11 | 0.0195852 | figure | 11 | 0.9973697 |
| 38 | compare | 12 | 0.0185370 | difference | 12 | 0.9971912 |
| 38 | unite kingdom | 13 | 0.0143439 | activism | 13 | 0.9970197 |
| 38 | kingdom | 14 | 0.0139944 | statistic | 14 | 0.9965831 |
| 38 | economy | 15 | 0.0136450 | table | 15 | 0.9965809 |
5.38.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The euro area and its monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-09-11 | 0.297 | table 2: estimates of intrinsic inflation persistence by monetary regime full sample european monetary union new monetary regime inflation targeting after the great inflation japan 0.660 0.634 sources: benati (2007). figures report the mode of the estimated structural persistence parameter in conventional hybrid phillips curves, featuring a forward-looking and a backward-looking term for inflation. monetary regimes are defined as follows. for the euro area, the full sample is 1970q1-2006q4, and the european monetary union period includes 1999q1-2006q4. for switzerland, the full sample is 1970q1-2006q4, and the new monetary regime includes 2000:1-2006:4. for the united kingdom the full sample is 1963q1- 2006q4, and the inflation targeting period includes 1992q4-2006q4. for canada the inf… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The US economy, the euro area economy, and their central banks | Period_1 | 2007-12-10 | 0.234 | contacts with the federal reserve these international organisations provide an excellent opportunity for the federal reserve chairman and myself, for the members of the boards as well as for the staff of both the fed and the ecb/eurosystem, to meet very regularly. to give you some idea of the level of contact we have, i can say that ben and i meet, through the g7, the g10, the g20, the imf and bis meetings, probably a little more than once a month on average. in addition, mr bernanke and i jointly participate in a number of international conferences. indeed, through our regular meetings, ben and i have built up a very close working relationship, a climate of mutual trust, and a platform for direct and quick contact in special circumstances that would require urgent communication. why is… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The US economy, the euro area economy, and their central banks | Period_1 | 2007-12-10 | 0.206 | conclusion ladies and gentlemen, allow me to conclude. the euro area and the united states are large economic blocs which are, at the same time, largely open to world markets. the last decades, in particular, have witnessed a tightening of the trade and financial linkages and the bilateral relationships between the united states and the euro area have been reinforced. as a result, central banks worldwide, and in particular the federal reserve and the eurosystem, always keep an eye on partners’ economic, monetary and financial developments. the ecb and the federal reserve system have many opportunities to share their experience and technical expertise, whether through discussions within international meetings or in informal ways through conferences, staff visits, personal contacts of all… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.195 | dear alan, dear ladies and gentlemen, i had the privilege of participating with alan in all meetings of the g7 ministers and governors over the last 18 years. but there is one big difference between us! he participated in all these meetings as president of the federal reserve, whereas my responsibilities changed three times during this period. i was successively undersecretary of the treasury of my country, governor of banque de france and then president of the european central bank. i could therefore look at the legendary exposition of alan in the g7 from three different angles, now not only with the benefit of a multiocular perspective but also of hindsight. and i can say that in 3-d alan’s expositions in this intimate, restricted format are incredibly sharp, profound and visionary. i… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Issues in monetary policy - views from the ECB | Period_1 | 2004-04-30 | 0.187 | two central banks in comparison in conclusion, let me wrap up my remarks in a comparative mode. let me explain how i see our european monetary policy concept in comparison with the us federal reserve monetary policy concept. i will not dwell on what is from time to time presented as the major difference, namely the legal objective assigned to the central bank. i already said that in my analysis this difference is one of presentation more than of substance, and should not be overdone. instead, i would stress that i see two major similarities and two significant differences between the ecb and the federal reserve concept. two similarities: |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary-fiscal interactions on the way out of the crisis | Period_2 | 2021-07-02 | 0.107 | domestic and external demand ameco. inflation dynamics failed to keep up with a 2% trend – although economies where unconventional monetary policy was used earlier and more aggressively did perform better (chart 3). and crucially, inflation expectations began to adapt to prolonged below-target inflation. long-term market-based expectations fell by more than 150 basis points in both the united states and the euro area.[6] headline inflation eurostat, federal reserve and bank of japan. notes: numbers denote average annualised inflation over sub-periods. red line denotes constant 2% growth. |
| Mario Draghi: Twenty years of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-06-18 | 0.086 | 1 rostagno et al. (2019), forthcoming. 2 the difference in growth in energy prices between the euro area and the united states can in large part be attributed to differences in tax rates, which are typically higher in the euro area. as such, the share of the final price paid by consumers accounted for by oil is much smaller in the euro area, and cpi energy prices are less affected in aggregate by movements in oil prices. that being said, the energy component has a higher weight in euro area hicp, so a 1 percentage point increase in cpi energy prices has a greater impact on headline inflation in the euro area than in the united states. 3 the equivalent figure for core pce inflation was 1.9%. 4 rostagno et al. (2019), op.cit. 5 measured as the change in the cyclically adjusted primary bal… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Between low interest rates and bond purchases - has European monetary policy reached a dead end? | Period_2 | 2017-10-10 | 0.086 | monetary policy were very opaque. in the 1980s, alan greenspan claimed that he had to learn “fedspeak” when he became chairman of the federal reserve board. he “learned to mumble with great incoherence”. back then central banks were secretive about monetary policy and vague, at best, when speaking to the markets. so markets had to find ways to second-guess what the central bank was up to. some of these ways were a bit odd. alan greenspan’s briefcase was one of the more inventive indicators. whenever the federal reserve had a meeting to discuss monetary policy, the markets apparently observed alan greenspan’s briefcase. if it was bulging, markets concluded that interest rates would change; if it was thin, they concluded that no change was likely. in the end, such ways of gauging what the… |
| Mario Draghi: How central banks meet the challenge of low inflation | Period_2 | 2016-02-05 | 0.081 | needs to be complemented by programs designed to enhance competition and to correct structural problems”. 4 it was only when paul volcker arrived as chairman in 1979 and shortened the policy horizon that the fed took ownership for controlling inflation. inflation, which peaked at around 15% in march 1980, fell below 3% by 1983. some argue that today the situation is different; that whereas volcker could raise rates to 20% to tame inflation, central banks fighting disinflation are inhibited by the lower bound on interest rates. the japanese experience after the bursting of the housing bubble in early 1990s is often presented as evidence. but the japanese case in fact only reinforces the importance of full commitment from policymakers. as long as the commitment of the bank of japan to a l… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview in the Leading European Newspaper Alliance - LENA | Period_2 | 2015-11-17 | 0.079 | in december the us federal reserve system (fed) will take a decision on whether to maintain its key rates at zero or increase them. will their decision influence yours? it will have no direct impact on our decision. whatever the fed decides, our monetary policy framework (zero rates, liquidity, “forward guidance” and asset purchases) allows us to keep interest rates low, no matter what happens in the rest of the world. our policy protects the interest rate curve for the euro area from external shocks. what interests us above all is what the fed’s decision tells us about the us economy. if the fed were to raise its rates, it would be a sign that growth and employment indicators are robust in the united states. this, essentially, would be good news for europe. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.140 | change in balance sheets of the eurosystem, the federal reserve and the bank of england since 2019 (cumulative changes relative to january 2020 in terms of percentages of gdp in q4 2019) ecb, federal reserve bank of new york, bank of england, haver analytics and ecb calculations. notes: for the eurosystem asset purchases include all pepp and app purchases. credit operations include all tltros, peltros, mros, and ltros. for the federal reserve asset purchases include all treasury bills, notes, and bonds as well as inflation-protected treasuries and floating-rate treasuries. these also include agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities. credit operations include all repurchase agreements, loans, and operations under the commercial paper funding facility ii, the corporate credit facility,… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.140 | income and savings in the united states and euro area household nominal income savings rate (index: q1 2015 = 100) (percentage point differences compared with q4 2019) ome fro area wwe united states ome fto area eee united states 150 20 18 | 140 16 + 130 te py leet 12 + 120 weet 10 + 110 ow 6 + 100 « 4 | 90 0 es es ee es sn sn. ~ cee mar-15 mar-16 mar-17 mar-18 mar-19 mar-20 mar-21 q4 20191 202002 202003 202004 202001 202102 202103 202104 2021 sources: left panel: eurostat and federal reserve system; right panel: eurostat, bureau of economic analysis and ecb calculations. notes: us quarterly data are computed as averages of monthly data. the latest observations are for the fourth quarter of 2021 for the united states and the third quarter of 2021 for the euro area. chart 3 domestic dema… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The globalisation of inflation | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.101 | because the euro area is a net importer of energy, this surge in inflation is often referred to as “imported inflation” – in other words, inflation over which monetary policy has no, or very little, control. in this context, comparisons are often made with the united states, where energy is making a smaller contribution to headline inflation, suggesting that price pressures are predominately a result of domestic forces. and indeed, there is currently a large gap between the euro area and the united states when looking at measures of inflation that exclude energy and food (slide 3, left-hand side). for at least three reasons, however, such comparisons should be treated with caution. first, even if we exclude the impact of energy and food, inflation in the euro area is currently at levels… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.092 | inflation excluding food and energy: euro area (left) vs. united states (right) eurostat, haver and ecb staff calculations. notes: for the euro area, the panel shows the hicp excluding food and energy, as well as the contributions to it. for the united states the panel shows the cpi excluding food and energy, as well as the contributions to it. items affected by bottlenecks include new motor cars, second-hand motor cars, spare parts and accessories for personal transport equipment, and furnishings and household equipment. items affected by reopening include clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, recreation services, hotels and motels, and domestic and international flights. rents include actual rents paid by tenants, and for the united states also imputed rents for owner-occupie… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The monetary policy non-puzzle in bond markets | Period_3 | 2021-09-15 | 0.088 | 1 i would like to thank johannes gräb for his contributions to this speech. 2 bank of america global research (2021), european fund manager survey, 14 september. 3 these simulations assume future purchases corresponding to the median response from our survey of monetary analysts (sma). 4 options are based on consumer price index (cpi) inflation, but the federal reserve system states its goal for inflation in terms of the personal consumption expenditure (pce) price index. 5/5 |
The most representative speeches:
5.39 Topic 39: bank; central; central bank; major central; dimension
5.39.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | bank | 1 | 0.3096721 | central | 1 | 0.9998248 |
| 39 | central | 2 | 0.2808661 | central bank | 2 | 0.9998247 |
| 39 | central bank | 3 | 0.2685090 | bank | 3 | 0.9995617 |
| 39 | major central | 4 | 0.0031998 | major central | 4 | 0.9993867 |
| 39 | dimension | 5 | 0.0027087 | bank policy | 5 | 0.9992990 |
| 39 | major central bank | 6 | 0.0024632 | central bank policy | 6 | 0.9991238 |
| 39 | bank policy | 7 | 0.0021359 | major central bank | 7 | 0.9990363 |
| 39 | central bank policy | 8 | 0.0018086 | dimension | 8 | 0.9986854 |
| 39 | form | 9 | 0.0016449 | precisely | 9 | 0.9971949 |
| 39 | precisely | 10 | 0.0013175 | belong | 10 | 0.9971505 |
| 39 | understand | 11 | 0.0012357 | blur | 11 | 0.9970632 |
| 39 | decade | 12 | 0.0012357 | comprise | 12 | 0.9968460 |
| 39 | future | 13 | 0.0011539 | central bank include | 13 | 0.9967543 |
| 39 | task | 14 | 0.0010720 | chance | 14 | 0.9958809 |
| 39 | fact | 15 | 0.0009902 | permanently | 15 | 0.9957504 |
5.39.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation, expectations and current challenges to monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-10-14 | 0.184 | this requires intense communication with market participants, of at least two sorts. first, the central bank has the duty to warn market participants when their own behaviour is not consistent with price stability and may lead to a tightening of monetary policy which would lead to a worse outcome for all. this has to involve communication with the public at large: unions, employers, budgetary authorities. this type of communication is in the interest of all, since any inconsistency would lead in the end to a worse result in terms of economic growth. it is also in the interest of the central bank as price stability can be more easily maintained if agents act consistently. warning economic agents openly about their behaviour is not easy and does not make central banks popular. these warni… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Lessons for monetary policy from the recent crisis | Period_1 | 2011-01-20 | 0.164 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation, expectations and current challenges to monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-10-14 | 0.138 | institutional constraints for monetary policy the main objective of communication policy is to make monetary policy predictable. there are not many analyses looking at the predictability of central banks. those that i have seen suggest that central banks of major countries have achieved a high degree of predictability in recent years, and are performing quite similarly in this respect.7 analyses tend to focus more on the means and instruments to achieve predictability, than the result itself. these analyses often fail to take into account the institutional and political context in which different central banks operate. they also at times entail the risk of suggesting superficial and naïve prescriptions that are simply not realistic, not because the central bank does not want to implemen… |
| Jürgen Stark: Central banking after the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-02-23 | 0.136 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.136 | granted that the euro would be able to establish itself so quickly as a stable and internationally recognised currency. this was only possible because the ecb and the national central banks of the eurosystem have solid institutional foundations. these foundations are the treaty negotiated in maastricht in 1991 and the statute of the escb. the treaty and the statute of the escb are clear: the primary objective of the eurosystem is to ensure price stability. the ecb and the national central banks of the eurosystem are independent so that they can pursue this goal. neither the ecb, nor the national central banks, nor the members of their decision-making bodies may seek or receive any instructions from anybody. this applies to european as well as national institutions. they, for their part,… |
| Peter Praet: Have unconventional policies overstretched central bank independence? Challenges for accountability and transparency in the wake of the crisis | Period_2 | 2017-03-30 | 0.166 | 5 milton friedman (1963), inflation: causes and consequences, asian publishing house. 6 willem buiter (2016), “dysfunctional central banking; the end of independent central banks or a return to ‘narrow central banking’ – or both?”, global economics view, citi research, 21 december; otmar issing (2016), “central banks – from overburdening to decline?”, safe white paper series, no 42. 7 jakob de haan and sylvester c.w. eijffinger (2017), “central bank independence under threat?”, cepr policy insight, no 87. 8 transparency international eu (2017), two sides of the same coin – independence and accountability of the european central bank, transparency.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/ti-eu_ecb_report_digital.pdf. 6/6 |
| Peter Praet: The role of the European Central Bank - pudence and responsibility in times of crisis | Period_2 | 2017-05-12 | 0.156 | 1 see willem buiter (2016), “dysfunctional central banking; the end of independent central banks or a return to ‘narrow central banking’ – or both?”, global economics view, citi research, 21 december; otmar issing (2016), central banks – from overburdening to decline?, safe white paper series, no 42; jakob de haan and sylvester c.w. eijffinger (2017), central bank independence under threat?, cepr policy insight, no 87. 2 max weber was professor of economics at heidelberg university from 1896–1903. his lecture was given in 1918 at the university of munich and published in 1919. see max weber (1919), “der beruf zur politik”, in johannes winckelmann (ed.), max weber – soziologie – universalgeschichtliche analysen – politik, , alfred kröner verlag, 1973, pp. 167–185. 3 7/8 |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.138 | thank you very much for inviting me to speak at this conference marking the bicentenary of de nederlandsche bank (dnb). congratulations to you, klaas, and to all the staff of the dnb! we are tasked today with reflecting on central banking in the next two decades, and the theme i would like to talk about is central bank transparency and communication. this is not only because transparency and communication has grown ever more important for central banks over the past twenty years, and look set to become even more important over the two decades to come. it is also because the netherlands seems a fitting setting for such a discussion. as you know well, this country has a long history of transparency – households in the netherlands are renowned for keeping open their curtains. the classic e… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The usefulness of forward guidance | Period_2 | 2013-09-30 | 0.135 | but the premium on clear communication is particularly large in extraordinary situations, for example when policy rates are at, or close to, their effective lower bound, or when the normal channels of monetary policy transmission are impaired, or when there is exceptional uncertainty on the state of the economy. such situations occur only seldom. this makes it difficult for private agents to infer the future monetary policy path from past regularities. hence, there is a clear added value in such a situation to making central bank communication more explicit. this explains why many central banks that had previously not used forward guidance adopted this tool in recent times. how does forward guidance work? well, first of all, most central banks have linked forward guidance to their main … |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Stormy times - how is the ECB handling them? | Period_2 | 2015-11-30 | 0.134 | to achieve this, the ecb needs to be independent; also independent from political influence. the independence of central banks is a relatively new, but now undisputed, achievement. the deutsche bundesbank was the trailblazer in this regard: since 1957 it has been the very model of an independent central bank. since the 1990s most industrialised countries have adopted this model in one form or another. indeed, the ecb itself was also modelled on the bundesbank. why does a central bank need to be independent? on a matter as important as money, people justifiably want to see tight controls. history has shown independent central banks to be the most successful in keeping the value of money stable. the underlying principle is that responsibility for maintaining price stability should be in t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.117 | second, central bank independence is important for safeguarding stable prices. today, central banks in almost all advanced economies and many emerging market economies are politically independent. the “great moderation” that took off in the 1980s built on these two pillars — a narrow, well-defined mandate and central bank independence. over time, a clear commitment to price stability has anchored inflation expectations at very low levels. maintaining this level of trust is what will guide the response of central banks to the challenges we are facing today. |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.106 | “hitting the elusive inflation target”, nber working paper, no 26279, september. 33. see also panetta, f. (2021), “monetary-fiscal interactions on the way out of the crisis”, keynote speech at the conference of the governors of mediterranean central banks on “central banks at the frontline of the covid-19 crisis: weathering the storm, spurring the recovery”, 28 june. contact european central bank directorate general communications > sonnemannstrasse 20 > 60314 frankfurt am main, germany > +49 69 1344 7455 > media@ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts copyright 2021, european central bank |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.078 | luis de guindos: policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies remarks by mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, at the international conference “future of central banking” organised by the bank of lithuania and the bank for international settlements on the occasion of the centenary of the bank of lithuania, vilnius, 29 september 2022. i am very pleased to participate in this conference to mark the centenary of lietuvos bankas. building on the ecb’s recent strategy review and our reflections on the policy mix, i will outline my views on the interplay between monetary, macroprudential and fiscal policy. |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.075 | while i understand it is not a specific topic covered in today’s conference, a similar commitment to fully incorporate climate-related and environmental risks applies to our banking supervision tasks and responsibilities. in addition to the climate stress test that was concluded by ecb banking supervision earlier this year, we will soon publish the results of our thematic review. as part of this exercise, our core banking supervision teams – joint supervisory teams – thoroughly assessed to what extent banks’ risk management practices for climate-related and environmental risks live up to the supervisory expectations we published in 2020. we conducted this exercise to assess where banks stand with regard to our expectations and to highlight any gaps they urgently need to close. we will a… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.073 | european central bank directorate general communications > 60314 frankfurt am main, germany > media@ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts copyright 2021, european central bank |
The most representative speeches:
5.40 Topic 40: stability; price stability; deliver; citizen; good
5.40.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | stability | 1 | 0.0479897 | citizen | 1 | 0.9991238 |
| 40 | price stability | 2 | 0.0354212 | deliver price stability | 2 | 0.9987719 |
| 40 | deliver | 3 | 0.0343336 | social | 3 | 0.9986858 |
| 40 | citizen | 4 | 0.0303455 | job creation | 4 | 0.9983792 |
| 40 | good | 5 | 0.0294996 | deliver price | 5 | 0.9983336 |
| 40 | creation | 6 | 0.0280494 | deliver | 6 | 0.9980701 |
| 40 | social | 7 | 0.0244238 | creation | 7 | 0.9978958 |
| 40 | job | 8 | 0.0234570 | trust | 8 | 0.9976781 |
| 40 | europe | 9 | 0.0174145 | ensure price | 9 | 0.9974580 |
| 40 | job creation | 10 | 0.0174145 | fellow | 10 | 0.9974096 |
| 40 | growth | 11 | 0.0169311 | ensure price stability | 11 | 0.9965825 |
| 40 | trust | 12 | 0.0169311 | job | 12 | 0.9965783 |
| 40 | confidence | 13 | 0.0163269 | fellow citizen | 13 | 0.9964866 |
| 40 | ensure | 14 | 0.0154809 | social partner | 14 | 0.9963623 |
| 40 | deliver price stability | 15 | 0.0122180 | partner | 15 | 0.9962764 |
5.40.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European economy - current state and prospects | Period_1 | 2004-09-29 | 0.349 | conclusion ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude with two remarks which could be summed up in two words : confidence and conviction. confidence first. we all know that the euro area has a considerable potential, which will progressively materialize in the period to come. the present gradual recovery is underway and conditions are there for it to be progressively more broadly based. in the present juncture confidence is of the essence. the degree of confidence in all economic constituencies, households, savers, entrepreneurs and investors is a key factor to foster growth and job creation. a central bank is an anchor of confidence. we, in the ecb and in the eurosystem, are doing all what is necessary to preserve and consolidate confidence: confidence in our currency, confidence in our cap… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with Le Figaro magazine | Period_1 | 2009-01-30 | 0.276 | was too simplistic a view. the ecb’s governing council does what the treaty on european union asks it to do, on behalf of 329 million european citizens in the euro area. while i was governor of the banque de france, there was also a public debate on the decisions of the monetary policy council, which some 70% of french citizens approved, across all public sensibilities. i have noticed that public support for the ecb’s policy of price stability is also very strong and is an element of trust which is important for the economy as a whole. le figaro magazine: was the euro not responsible, in part, for inflation? jean-claude trichet: on the contrary. over the last ten years, we have managed to maintain a stable rise in prices of 2.2% per annum on average in the euro area. this is a good resu… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with Folha | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.270 | folha – it is a (paradigm) dogma that central banks should only pay attention to inflation and not to other points of the economy like jobs or consumer spending. you have indicated that you are, now, more concerned about growth than about inflation. in times of a severe crisis like these in which we are, isn’t that dogma correct anymore? jean-claude trichet – i didn’t say that. we are not changing the way we look at our monetary policy strategy. we consider that our primary mandate has been – it is today and will be tomorrow – to deliver price stability in the medium term. this is the mandate that we were asked to fulfil by the treaty of maastricht. in this perspective, we decided to decrease interest rates by 100 basis points in less than one month because we have observed a significan… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with Paris Match | Period_1 | 2005-12-21 | 0.265 | p.m. what criteria served to justify this rate rise? there has of course been a rise in prices due to the leap in oil prices. did you also take account of the boom in property prices and the surge in consumer credit? j.-c. t. we increased rates as a preventative measure, thereby strengthening saver confidence, because we identified these inflation risks. this allows us to continue to profit today from the lowest medium and long-term market interest rates for fifty years. it’s a remarkable contribution to growth and job creation, thanks to our credibility in delivering price stability. p.m. by anticipating a resurgence of inflation in the medium term, don’t you, as jean-claude juncker fears, run the risk of triggering a round of wage rises that would work counter to your desire to fight … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with Hospodarske noviny | Period_1 | 2008-09-25 | 0.262 | price stability in the medium term, which means less then two, close to two percent. that being said, in order to deliver price stability in the medium term, in line with our definition, we must avoid any second round effects of both price setting as well as wage negotiations. to the contrary, we will do all what is necessary for inflation to go down, back to our definition of price stability. as our mandate is requiring, and as our fellow citizens are asking us, and they are very keen on asking us to deliver price stability. this is necessary for sustainable growth and sustainable job creation. and that is the reason why we recommend not only towards the social partners but also price setters to strictly avoid those second round effects. |
| Mario Draghi: A route for Europe | Period_2 | 2012-05-25 | 0.127 | processes. in addition to undermining society’s sense of fairness, it is a waste that we cannot afford. i think it’s essential to ask how economic policy conducted in various member states has done its duty in the way desired by caffè. social progress is one of the key objectives of the european integration process: “the union shall work for the sustainable development of europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress … it shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection, equality between women and men, solidarity between generations and protection of the rights of the child”. (article i–3 of the draft european constitution). welfare i… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The future of Europe - building on our strengths | Period_2 | 2013-12-06 | 0.123 | our common future cannot be found in the past. the world has changed too much in recent decades to go back. none of our countries are strong enough to survive alone. europe faces considerable challenges, yes, but the answers are not so complicated. the europe we aspire to is the one that has worked well so far; that is based on economic integration and price stability; and that is embedded in the eu treaty. the future of europe is to continue on the course we set ourselves in 1999 – but follow through with it fully and to complete the original vision where it proves necessary. we at the ecb will continue to deliver price stability. governments, companies and social partners need to do their part. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Price stability as the basis of a sustained recovery | Period_2 | 2014-07-04 | 0.121 | summary only sustainable growth via enhancing the productive potential in the euro area will lead to an environment that secures fair prices for credit and fair compensation for savers, said benoît cœuré, member of the ecb’s executive board. cœuré explained in his speech at the wirtschaftstag in berlin the ecb’s monetary policy in the current environment of a stagnating economy. “in a stagnating economy savers complain about low returns while borrowers complain about too restrictive credit conditions”. only an economy with sustainable growth and price stability can solve this dilemma. “the only way to move on from the current low interest rate environment is to reinvigorate the productive potential of the euro are economy”, cœuré said. like ludwig erhard did by establishing the social m… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview in De Telegraaf | Period_2 | 2014-06-23 | 0.116 | do you understand that people see the euro as the cause of the crisis, and of unemployment? “the crisis and the unemployment are the result of a very severe financial crisis and partly also of wrong economic policies. the euro may have masked it but it has not caused it. we must end the crisis in monetary union and enable it to create prosperity and jobs again.” that sounds terrific, but the many eu summits on growth and job creation have all led to nothing. what needs to be done? “that is a complicated issue. we cannot accept the present because we currently have low growth and insufficient job creation. on the other hand, we should not dream of a past that cannot be brought back and that cannot by any means be clearly taken to be better. we must work for the future in order to achieve… |
| Yves Mersch: Economic and monetary policy at a turning point - where is the economy heading in Europe, the United States and China? | Period_2 | 2019-07-15 | 0.104 | transmission of our monetary policy. this being said, the governing council remains ready to act in case of adverse contingencies and to use its instruments – as appropriate – to ensure price stability. a reliable strategy is an anchor for credible monetary policy. erratic policy debates for the purpose of creating short-term stimulus risk undermining that credibility in the long run. 3/3 |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.098 | determination against the risk of people starting to doubt the long-term stability of our fiat currencies. regaining and preserving trust requires us to bring inflation back to target quickly. the longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that the public will lose confidence in our determination and ability to preserve purchasing power. trust in our institutions is even more important at a time of major and disruptive structural change that brings about larger, more persistent and more frequent shocks. a reliable nominal anchor eases the transition towards the new equilibrium, and improves the trade-off facing central banks in the future. all in all, therefore, an important lesson from the great moderation is that it is also up to central banks whether the challenges we are faci… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.090 | moreover, numerous questions remain unanswered. how high and how persistent does inflation need to be for the frequency of price changes to increase significantly? how would this affect the strength of the selection effect? and could real rigidities become weaker, for example because real wages adjust faster or price-setters pay more attention to inflation? improving our grasp of these issues is essential to foster our understanding of the effects of monetary policy. research is the backbone of good policymaking – and we count on you helping us to advance our knowledge of these fundamental issues, which helps us to deliver on our mandate of price stability. thank you very much for your attention, and i wish you an interesting and productive conference. |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.084 | it therefore follows that our actions in pursuit of price stability do not undermine our commitment to incorporate climate change considerations, within our mandate. similarly, this same commitment does not undermine our commitment to price stability. nor does it in any way restrict our ability to deliver price stability, even in the challenging circumstances we are currently facing. not only have we started policy rate normalisation with an unprecedented 125 basis point increase in our rates over the last two governing council meetings, we have also released details of how we aim to decarbonise our corporate bond holdings on a path aligned with the goals of the paris agreement. as of next monday, we will start tilting our corporate bond purchases towards issuers with a better climate p… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.065 | monetary policy can best contribute to macroeconomic stability and social welfare by ensuring a timely return of inflation to target, thereby preserving people’s purchasing power, and supporting investment by reducing uncertainty. thank you. 1. schnabel, i. (2021), “unconventional fiscal and monetary policy at the zero lower bound”, speech at the third annual conference organised by the european fiscal board, 26 february. reichlin, l., ricco, g. and tarbé, m. (2021), “monetary-fiscal crosswinds in the european monetary union”, cepr discussion paper series, no 16138, centre for economic policy research, may. 2. lagarde, c. (2022), “monetary policy in a high inflation environment: commitment and clarity”, lecture organised by eesti pank, 4 november. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.061 | before turning to the topic of today’s lecture, | wish to comment on the russian invasion of ukraine. at stated by president lagarde last friday, at this dark moment for europe, the thoughts of the ecb’s governing council are with the people of ukraine. the ecb is closely monitoring the evolving situation. with regard to policy measures, the ecb will implement the sanctions decided by the eu and the european governments. the ecb will also ensure smooth liquidity conditions and the access of citizens to cash. the ecb stands ready to take whatever action is needed to fulfil its responsibilities to ensure price stability and financial stability in the euro area. |
The most representative speeches:
5.41 Topic 41: economy; emerge; global; market; advance
5.41.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | economy | 1 | 0.2265204 | emerge | 1 | 0.9996495 |
| 41 | emerge | 2 | 0.0807920 | advance economy | 2 | 0.9993866 |
| 41 | global | 3 | 0.0757433 | emerge market | 3 | 0.9993865 |
| 41 | market | 4 | 0.0589600 | emerge market economy | 4 | 0.9992109 |
| 41 | advance | 5 | 0.0529562 | advance | 5 | 0.9991239 |
| 41 | advance economy | 6 | 0.0338532 | market economy | 6 | 0.9989486 |
| 41 | emerge market | 7 | 0.0311242 | global economy | 7 | 0.9985982 |
| 41 | market economy | 8 | 0.0204811 | emerge economy | 8 | 0.9985100 |
| 41 | global economy | 9 | 0.0192531 | economy | 9 | 0.9981568 |
| 41 | emerge market economy | 10 | 0.0143409 | global | 10 | 0.9978942 |
| 41 | numb | 11 | 0.0118848 | china | 11 | 0.9977220 |
| 41 | china | 12 | 0.0099745 | usd | 12 | 0.9973270 |
| 41 | major | 13 | 0.0092922 | emerge country | 13 | 0.9972818 |
| 41 | emerge economy | 14 | 0.0083371 | industrialise | 14 | 0.9971079 |
| 41 | account | 15 | 0.0082006 | india | 15 | 0.9966237 |
5.41.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Charting a new global landscape ¿ the growing impact of emerging markets on the world economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-04 | 0.344 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Charting a new global landscape ¿ the growing impact of emerging markets on the world economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-04 | 0.331 | dimension which is, for sure, interlinked with the economic one. take film-making as an example. in 2005, the largest world producer of films was india, with over 900 films, ahead of the european union, with about 800, and the united states, with about 700. 11 other emerging markets, such as china and russia, ranked among the top ten film producers. turkey was within the top 20, with 27 films. consider the internet as a second example. the internet plays a crucial role in making the world more global, and here too the weight of emerging markets is already impressive. there are already around 16 million internet users in turkey, corresponding to about one fifth of the population. excluding japan, asia has the highest number of internet users, with over 310 million users, ahead of north a… |
| Jürgen Stark: Issues paper for the conference “The financial crisis and its consequences for the world economy” | Period_1 | 2008-12-16 | 0.230 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Charting a new global landscape ¿ the growing impact of emerging markets on the world economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-04 | 0.229 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Charting a new global landscape ¿ the growing impact of emerging markets on the world economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-04 | 0.209 | all in all, it is difficult to measure accurately the total impact of emerging markets on inflation. for instance, the imf’s staff has estimated that globalisation, through its direct effects on non-oil import prices, has reduced inflation by a quarter of a percentage point per year, on average, in mature economies. 17 however, the overall impact is more difficult to estimate and disentangle from other factors that reduce inflation, for instance the increases in productivity growth and the stronger credibility of monetary policy. take now international capital flows, the other dimension for which the growing role of emerging markets has a clear global effect. certain emerging markets, notably in asia and among oil exporters, have become the “financiers of the world”. they are indeed lar… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.217 | reflections on monetary policy page 2 of 18 markit and ecb staff calculations.notes: the long-run averages are 53.0 for the euro area, 54.2 for advanced economies excluding the euro area and 53.1 for emerging market economies. long-run average refers to the period from 1999 onwards for euro area and advanced economies and 2005 onwards for emerging market economies. latest observation: july 2019. global merchandise import growth |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for global economic growth | Period_2 | 2014-06-02 | 0.196 | the structural slowdown in emerging markets a second global theme has been the remarkable moderation of growth in emerging markets. to take just one statistic, aggregate emerging market growth has slowed sharply in recent years, from just under 8% in 2010 to around 4.5% last year. one component of this slowdown has been a structural moderation. in retrospect, the early part of this century stands out as an exceptional period for emerging economies. between 2000 and 2010, aggregate growth in emerging markets averaged 6% on an annual basis. that compared to around 4% in the preceding two decades. the future looks less rosy. estimates from the imf2 point to a significant moderation in potential growth in large emerging markets. the factors behind the slowdown are varied. but a common theme… |
| Philip R Lane: International inflation co-movements | Period_2 | 2020-05-25 | 0.183 | international inflation patterns as illustrated in chart 1, average rates of inflation have generally declined and exhibited lower volatility in recent decades, most notably in advanced economies.[1] a common component accounts for a large share of the remaining variability of national inflation rates: this finding has been confirmed for advanced economies in a range of studies.[2] range of inflation in advanced and emerging economies over time haver analytics. note: the interquartile range covers 50% of the sample of 25 advanced and 93 emerging market economies. |
| Mario Draghi: The international dimension of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-29 | 0.170 | inflation, but also into lower underlying inflation through its effect on costs and imported prices. indeed, if one decomposes inflation for the average advanced economy, one finds that since mid-2014 there has been a notable rise in the global component, linked largely to oil and commodity price falls. 4 these various factors may originate only in parts of the global economy – some originate more in advanced economies, other more in emerging markets – but in an integrated world they have global effects. cyclical weakness has spilled over through various channels into a similar challenge for all. the second type of factors is more structural in nature. they concern the global forces that have led to very low real equilibrium interest rates across advanced economies, and hence made it mo… |
| Philip R Lane: International inflation co-movements | Period_2 | 2020-05-25 | 0.158 | [29] parker, m. (2018), op. cit., studies a wide range of economies – 223 countries over the period 1980 to 2012 – and finds that global inflation can explain around 70 percent of national inflation variability in a group of around 20 advanced economies, but only 20 percent for middle-income countries and 13 percent for low-income countries. the model of an independent central bank commited to a clear inflation aim had spread much more widely among advanced economies than among emerging and developing countries. however, more recently, as this model has become more widespread, both average inflation and inflation volatility have declined in a wider range of economies. in a similar vein, ha, j., kose, a. and ohnsorge, f. (2019), “ global inflation synchronization”, policy research work… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.089 | second, central bank independence is important for safeguarding stable prices. today, central banks in almost all advanced economies and many emerging market economies are politically independent. the “great moderation” that took off in the 1980s built on these two pillars — a narrow, well-defined mandate and central bank independence. over time, a clear commitment to price stability has anchored inflation expectations at very low levels. maintaining this level of trust is what will guide the response of central banks to the challenges we are facing today. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.085 | financial conditions indices in advanced economies and emerging market economies refinitiv, bloomberg and ecb staff calculations. notes: national financial conditions indices are aggregated using gdp purchasing power parity shares. the latest observations are for 6 october 2022. it is sometimes argued that domestic inflation having a large global component should mean that domestic monetary policy needs to be tightened more forcefully to compensate for this weakened grip on prices. but if central banks across advanced economies are simultaneously tightening monetary policy – as is the case today – the opposite is true.[20] if central banks do not fully factor in the effects of other central banks’ policies, the current phase of global adjustment may give way to a more severe slowdown th… |
| Christine Lagarde: New challenges in a changing world | Period_3 | 2023-01-24 | 0.080 | russia’s unjustifiable invasion of ukraine has brought supply security back to the top of the agenda for all major economies, most saliently for energy. and over the longer term, it is likely to accelerate the global transition to clean energy production as a way to increase climate and energy security. but such technologies are highly resource-intensive in their installation phase. getting the global economy on a path to meet the paris agreement goals could see total mineral demand from clean energy technologies quadrupling by 2040.[7] this threatens a new era of competition for resources. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in an uncertain world | Period_3 | 2022-03-17 | 0.075 | energy and food account for, on average, around two-thirds of inflation since june last year, with supply failing to catch up with demand as the world economy reopened.4] durable goods inflation is 16 times higher today than it was in february 2020. consumers in advanced economies have spent more on goods relative to services, while producers have been constrained by “zero covid” policies in parts of asia, a major provider of consumer goods worldwide. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.065 | but now we are facing a new environment. new supply constraints have arisen in the global economy owing to supply chain disruptions, zero-covid policies, energy production cuts, and russia’s invasion of ukraine. and in this context, swings in demand caused by the closing and reopening of the economy have “hit a wall”. rather than quantities increasing to match demand, prices have surged instead. that is a key reason why – alongside rising energy prices – inflation has returned so fiercely. some of these constraints will fade over time. we are already seeing, for example, shipping costs declining and delivery times shortening. but other changes may well be more persistent. the shocks triggered by the pandemic and the war are creating what i have called a “new global map” of economic rela… |
The most representative speeches:
5.42 Topic 42: trade; service; good; increase; import
5.42.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | trade | 1 | 0.0941974 | trade | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 42 | service | 2 | 0.0611053 | manufacture | 2 | 0.9988610 |
| 42 | good | 3 | 0.0444986 | import | 3 | 0.9987732 |
| 42 | increase | 4 | 0.0438925 | service | 4 | 0.9986845 |
| 42 | import | 5 | 0.0297102 | export | 5 | 0.9980718 |
| 42 | gdp | 6 | 0.0291041 | intra | 6 | 0.9978948 |
| 42 | export | 7 | 0.0263161 | extra | 7 | 0.9976332 |
| 42 | country | 8 | 0.0223160 | china | 8 | 0.9975468 |
| 42 | manufacture | 9 | 0.0212250 | fdi | 9 | 0.9971885 |
| 42 | grow | 10 | 0.0177097 | extra euro | 10 | 0.9968371 |
| 42 | cost | 11 | 0.0171037 | service sector | 11 | 0.9967584 |
| 42 | percentage | 12 | 0.0145581 | import price | 12 | 0.9962325 |
| 42 | account | 13 | 0.0141945 | total | 13 | 0.9962310 |
| 42 | china | 14 | 0.0140732 | cost country | 14 | 0.9955201 |
| 42 | total | 15 | 0.0134672 | direct investment | 15 | 0.9952526 |
5.42.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.471 | import prices as i argued before, intra-euro area imports have been growing strongly, but euro area imports from low-cost countries such as china and the new eu member states (henceforth nms) have been growing even more rapidly. based on highly detailed data disaggregated both by sectors and countries over the period 1995-2004, chart 4a shows that the level of import prices (proxied by absolute unit value indices) from china and the nms are estimated to be approximately one-quarter the import price of total euro area import prices, and about one-fifth the price of imports from high-cost countries. 14 since the start of the 2000s, the share of low-cost countries in extra-euro area manufacturing imports has increased from just over one-third to almost a half (chart 4b). 15 rising imports … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The US economy, the euro area economy, and their central banks | Period_1 | 2007-12-10 | 0.415 | globalisation and the surge in world trade, financial flows and innovative ideas that has been getting stronger during the last few decades. trade openness the euro area is the largest exporter in the world. its extra-area exports amounted to €1.9 trillion last year, while us exports reached €1.1 trillion. together, these two economies account for almost a third of world trade. the euro area is a significantly open economy for its size. its exports and imports of goods reached 33% of its own gdp in 2006, a figure to add to the rising importance of trade in services – around 10% of gdp. in 1998, euro area exports and imports only accounted for 24% of gdp, and trade in services for 8%. trade openness of the euro area has therefore been reinforced since the advent of the euro. the united s… |
| Lucas Papademos: China and the European Union - global economic challenges and policy responses | Period_1 | 2008-09-17 | 0.396 |
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| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.389 | the united states was fourth. 5 when one looks at measures focusing more narrowly on economic globalisation, however, the striking and not widely known fact is that europe, and the euro area in particular, turn out to be more closely integrated with the global economy than the us. globalisation, if narrowly defined as growing trade openness in response to declining trade and transport barriers, has been ongoing for decades and in this sense is not a novel phenomenon. over the last decade, however, this process appears to have accelerated, and the increasing trade integration has been accompanied by signs of a rapidly growing interdependence of economies also via production and financial market linkages, with two broad factors underlying such a development. first, falling costs of moving… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The role of central banks in a globalised economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-21 | 0.356 |
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| Benoît Cœuré: The rise of services and the transmission of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-19 | 0.237 | two waves of service-sector growth,” oxford economic papers, vol. 65, no 1, pp. 96–123; and berlingieri, g. (2013), “outsourcing and the rise in services,” cep discussion papers, no 1199. 29 this can also be seen on slide 4. the relative price of services in the euro area increased by 33% from 1970 to 1989 and by 21% from 1990 to 2009. 30 see, for example, baldwin, r., forslid, r. and ito, t. (2015), “unveiling the evolving sources of value added in exports”, ide-jetro joint research program series, no 161. see also imf (2018), op. cit. for a more general discussion, see acemoglu et al. (2012), “the network origins of aggregate fluctuations”, econometrica, vol. 80, no 5, pp. 1977–2016. 31 see also pastén, e., schoenle, r. and weber, m (2018), op. cit, and anderton et al. (2017), “ secto… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The rise of services and the transmission of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-19 | 0.232 | the second structural change relates to the input-output structure of our economies. services not only account for a much larger share of consumption and employment, they also make up a growing share of intermediate inputs used in the production of both services and manufacturing – a development that some have coined “servicification”.30 you can see this on my next slide for the case of the united states, where reliable long time series data are available. for the manufacturing sector, the proportion of total inputs accounted for by services increased from around 28% in 1970 to 32% in 2010. for the services sector, the increase is even more striking. intermediate services increased their share of total inputs by 14 percentage points, to 87%, over the same period. 11 / 16 |
| Benoît Cœuré: The rise of services and the transmission of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-19 | 0.215 | 20 percentage points in the euro area and by about 14 and 16 percentage points in the united states and japan respectively. you can see this on my first slide. second, and unsurprisingly given that many services are labour intensive, there has been an even greater increase in the percentage of the workforce employed in the services sector. you can see this on my next slide. in 2010, the services sector accounted for three-quarters of the jobs in the euro area, while in 1970 this figure was about 45%. the situation in the united states is even more stark. in 2010, the services sector accounted for nearly 85% of jobs. 2 / 16 |
| Benoît Cœuré: The rise of services and the transmission of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-19 | 0.190 | activity across sectors, which may further delay the pass-through of policy changes. but i would argue that part of the puzzle may also relate to structural changes within the services sector, which is itself subject to transformation. i would like to highlight two of these changes. first, all services are not made equal. recent research shows that some services industries, mostly those that can be delivered at distance, such as telecommunications and finance, are among the most productive and thriving industries in the economy. 27 as a result, a portion of services have been found to feature a falling relative price as income rises, much like manufacturing industries.28 indeed, on my next slide you can see that the difference between price inflation for services and non-energy goods ha… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for global economic growth | Period_2 | 2014-06-02 | 0.180 | waning global trade integration the third global theme i would like to touch on is the future for global trade. in recent years, world trade has been puzzlingly weak. before the financial crisis, global imports typically rose considerably faster than activity. in the three decades before the great recession, trade rose almost twice as fast as output (an elasticity of trade to gdp growth averaging 1.8). but since 2011, world trade has plateaued relative to world gdp around the level reached in 2008. some of this weakness is likely to be cyclical. global business investment, which typically has high trade content, has surprised on the downside in recent years and that has probably restrained the pace of global trade. as investment recovers, it should also spur a pick-up in global trade in… |
| Christine Lagarde: New challenges in a changing world | Period_3 | 2023-01-24 | 0.150 | a changing world this map is defined by three interrelated factors: shocks, supply, and security. first, with support for an open global trading order on the wane, we are facing new types of shocks to the global economy. for the past few decades, open trade has supported global growth by allowing countries to “rotate” demand during slumps.[2] but now it could become a source of volatility. that is because the rise of international free trade – and the stability that comes with it – has historically depended on the backing of a global hegemon. this was evident during the british empire in the 19th century, as it was with american support in the wake of the cold war.[3] however, major economies – led by the united states and china – are now increasingly using trade to limit the ambitions … |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.136 | supply mismatches – should fade as extra supply becomes available and sectoral demand surges normalise.[11] in analysing the current high inflation rate, the surge in energy prices constitutes an adverse terms of trade shock for the euro area, which imports more than 90 per cent of its energy inputs. in addition, the bottlenecks in global supply chains are primarily external in nature rather than reflecting an overheating of domestic demand in the euro area. chart 17 illustrates this for the trade balance. whereas the euro area goods trade balance generally registered a surplus of around two per cent before the pandemic, the goods trade balance has gradually deteriorated over 2021. this deterioration reflects the steady worsening of the energy and food trade balance, which was largely d… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.098 | 3.2 shielding the european economy from global shocks: monetary and fiscal policy the pandemic and the new economic order generated by the war also pose new challenges for monetary policy. the european economy has been hit by an unprecedented sequence of supply shocks which are pushing up inflation and depressing growth.[27] the exit from the pandemic had already produced a sharp rise in energy and commodity prices. in addition, the emergence of supply bottlenecks had raised the prices of durable goods. now the russian invasion of ukraine is exacerbating each of these individual forces.[28] oil and gas prices will stay higher for longer and remain subject to unprecedented uncertainty. not only is russia one of the world’s largest exporters of these products, but the eu is also the large… |
| Christine Lagarde: Finding resilience in times of uncertainty | Period_3 | 2022-03-31 | 0.095 | income (i.e. their income adjusted for inflation) squeezed. households are likely to save less, which should absorb part of this shock, but they have also revised down their spending plans. second, business investment is likely to be affected. the latest survey data suggest that business activity held up relatively well in march, but firms’ expectations in a year’s time fell sharply. suppliers’ delivery times, capturing manufacturing supply disruptions, also deteriorated again. how much inflation rises and growth slows will ultimately hinge on how the conflict and sanctions evolve. reflecting this uncertainty, at the last governing council meeting ecb staff prepared different scenarios to capture some of the possible outcomes. clearly, the longer the war lasts, the higher the economic c… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.087 | consumption, investment and government spending eurostat, and ecb projections and calculations. note: the latest observations are for the first quarter of 2022. shows a range of purchasing managers’ index (pmi) confidence indicators. the left panel shows the assessment of the current situation in manufacturing and services. the re-opening of the economy is supporting the continuing improvement in the services sector. although the manufacturing indicator edged down in march, it remained broadly stable in april, so that the overall profile has so far been resilient to the outbreak of the war. however, in the middle panel, we see that this resilience did not hold for export orders, which have declined more than total orders, since the war and the covid wave in china are already affecting t… |
The most representative speeches:
5.43 Topic 43: percentage; note; chart; observation; late
5.43.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | percentage | 1 | 0.0525884 | observation | 1 | 0.9994743 |
| 43 | note | 2 | 0.0521645 | calculation | 2 | 0.9994742 |
| 43 | chart | 3 | 0.0483486 | late observation | 3 | 0.9992986 |
| 43 | observation | 4 | 0.0367596 | calculation note | 4 | 0.9986849 |
| 43 | late | 5 | 0.0352050 | panel | 5 | 0.9985104 |
| 43 | calculation | 6 | 0.0323784 | note | 6 | 0.9981574 |
| 43 | panel | 7 | 0.0285625 | ecb calculation | 7 | 0.9980710 |
| 43 | change | 8 | 0.0240400 | staff calculation | 8 | 0.9974565 |
| 43 | late observation | 9 | 0.0224854 | percentage | 9 | 0.9974528 |
| 43 | estimate | 10 | 0.0212134 | ecb calculation note | 10 | 0.9972813 |
| 43 | average | 11 | 0.0190935 | ecb staff calculation | 11 | 0.9971060 |
| 43 | leave | 12 | 0.0171149 | chart | 12 | 0.9971023 |
| 43 | ecb staff | 13 | 0.0169736 | percentage change | 13 | 0.9969308 |
| 43 | calculation note | 14 | 0.0164083 | leave panel | 14 | 0.9964925 |
| 43 | staff | 15 | 0.0159843 | staff calculation note | 15 | 0.9964918 |
5.43.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.246 | 1.0 0.0 0.5 -2.5 0.0 -5.0 -0.5 -7.5 p ho to graphic and cinematic equipment - 1.0 - 1.5 -10.0 telepho ne and telefax equipment consumer goods capital goods energy -12.5 excluding food info rmatio n pro cessing equipment and tobacco -15.0 ecb calculations based on eurostat data. source: ecb calculations based on eurostat data. note: data for 92 hicp subcomponents. recent developments in extra-ea manuf. import prices by import supplier (monthly data, unit value indices, 3mma, euro) 70 jan- nov- sep- jul- may- mar- jan- nov- 01 01 02 03 04 05 06 0 6 ecb, hwwa and eurostat. note: last observation relates to dates ranging from nov. 2006 to march 2007. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.199 | : inward capital flows in the oecd countries % of w orld gdp 16 cross-border lending 14 12 foreign equity investment foreign direct investment 10 euro area foreign assets euro area foreign liabilities (as percentage of gdp) (as percentage of gdp) 1999 2006 1999 2006 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 fdi equity fixed income loans/deposits fdi equity fixed income loans/deposits a: chart 4b: china and nms have lower rising share of low-cost import price level countries in euro area imports (euros per kg of ea manufacturing imports) (values in euro; % of extra-ea imports) 70 share share of low-cost of low-cost (%, lhs)(%, lhs) countries countries high cost 50 60 48 50 total 30 43 rest of world 20 40 nms eurostat, ecb staff calculations source: eurostat comext data and … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.190 | table 1 impact of low-cost countries on extra-ea manuf. import prices decomposition of low-cost effect (annual average 1996-2004, percentage points unless otherwise indicated) low-cost effect (aggregate -2.1 direct effect) share effect -1.6 of which: china -0.8 nms -0.7 rest of low-cost 0.0 price effect -0.5 of which: china -0.2 nms -0.2 rest of low-cost -0.1 sources: ecb staff calculations. note: “share effect” captures the impact of rising import share and relatively low price level of low cost import suppliers (1.6 pp per annum); “price effect” captures impact of relatively lower import price inflation of low cost countries (0.5 pp per annum). extra-euro area import and commodity prices (indices: 2003m1=100, 3-month moving avg.) 210 non-energy total imports 130 commodities of goods 7… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.172 | 35% imports (extra) exports (extra) 30% 130 percentage of g d p 25% 120 20% 110 15% 100 10% 90 5% 80 0% euro area euro area united united jap an jap an 70 (1997- (2001- states states (1997- (2001- 2000) 2006) (1997- (2001- 2000) 2006) 60 2000) 2006) 50 source: ecb calculations. 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 note: the degree of openness is measured as exports plus imports as a percentage of gdp, average 1997-2006. euro area based on extra euro area trade. source: ecb calculations. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-06-14 | 0.125 | proceeding like this, 15 pre2 periods, 15 pre1 periods, 15 b1 periods and so on are obtained for the high-cost booms. the low-cost booms have 17 pre2 periods, 17 pre1 periods, 17 b1 periods and so on. subsequently, the median values of the synthetic indicator variable have been determined for each period (pre2, pre1, b1, etc.) across all high-cost booms on the one hand and across all low-cost booms on the other hand. specifically, we have computed the median values for four synthetic variables characterising the evolution of the rates of growth in real estate prices, real investment, real money growth and real credit over low and high-cost asset-price booms. the patterns of the computed median values are depicted on the graphs. a bar indicates that the distribution of growth rates in hi… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.301 | ecb calculations. notes: the model is a four variable bvar containing the 10-year real ois rate, the 10-year ils rate, equity prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate. it is identified using sign restrictions at impact and is estimated using daily data over the period 2005-2019. the chart shows the cumulative changes in the 10-year ils since july 2005, and the contributions of the four underlying factors. latest observation: 18 february 2020. the exercise shown here imposes sign restrictions on cross-asset price correlations of bonds, equities, exchange rates and inflation swaps to extract signals about the potential drivers of the cumulative changes in ten-year inflation-linked swaps since 2005. |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary autonomy in a globalised world | Period_2 | 2021-04-27 | 0.274 | refinitiv, bloomberg finance l.p. and ecb staff calculations. notes: left panel: original data at daily frequency collapsed to monthly averages. x-axis displays end date of five-year rolling window. right panel: the cut-off date for the march governing council meeting was 9 march 2021.the latest observation is for 23 april 2021. |
| Fabio Panetta: A commitment to the recovery | Period_2 | 2020-12-16 | 0.252 | 12/16/2020 a commitment to the recovery (period averages of annual percentage changes and percentage point contributions) the european commission’s ameco database and ecb staff calculations. notes: productivity is measured in terms of output per person employed. percentage point contributions are computed using a cobb-douglas production function, with capital deepening contributions estimated using two-period average factor shares. the total factor productivity (tfp) contribution is taken as the residual. |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary autonomy in a globalised world | Period_2 | 2021-04-27 | 0.239 | policy support from job retention schemes and loan guarantees (left panel: percentage of labour force; right panel: eur billions) eurostat, march 2021 ecb staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, and ecb staff calculations (left panel); kreditanstalt für wiederaufbau for germany, instituto de crédito oficial for spain, ministère de l’économie et des finances for france, ministero dell’economia e delle finanze and banca d’italia for italy and ecb calculations (right panel). notes: in the left panel, the unemployment rate in q1 2021 is the average in january and february 2021 (latest observation). the quarterly labour force in q1 2021 is based on the march 2021 mpe. the number of job retention schemes is up to march 2021 as collected by ecb staff from national employment and soc… |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary autonomy in a globalised world | Period_2 | 2021-04-27 | 0.233 | these forces, especially commodity price shocks, can have sizeable effects on price developments. but the evidence suggests that globalisation has only marginal effects on trend inflation.[7] while inflation has fallen across advanced economies over recent decades, its correlation with the pace of globalisation is weak. the sharpest reductions took place in the early 1980s, before globalisation took off (chart 1). since the 1990s, inflation has fallen fastest in two periods when trade integration was less intense.[8] median inflation rates in advanced economies and kof globalisation index[9] (left-hand scale: index; right-hand scale: annual percentage changes) ecb staff calculations, kof swiss economic institute and national sources. notes: headline median inflation of 22 oecd countries… |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.567 | contributions of temporary factors to monthly hicp inflation and components changes in headline inflation (annual percentage changes and percentage point (percentage point contributions and annual contributions) percentage changes) meee other wus enel gy gums changes to hicp weights — so mma ale alld mame non-energy industrial goods mums energy base effect —— hicp gues sales period-related neig base effects 5.0 oe change in headline hicp inflation 40 ome headline hicp (rhs) 48 40 4.0 1.5 39 3.0 1.0 2.4 . ae 2.0 } . 0.8 1.0 | | | | | ; 5 bhalla tt nen - wv. . wv y qn 0.5 45 -1.0 24 -1.0 ® a a a qa qa aaa a gg 8b be 5 5b ar “2.0 o>uzttse7 * € ho 2014 2016 2018 2020 oct-21 left-hand panel. source: eurostat, deutsche bundesbank, september nipe and ecb staff calculations. note: the latest ob… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.425 | strength of imported inflation contribution to hicp by import content energy dependence (annual percentage changes and percentage points) (left-hand scale: net energy imports as a percentage of gross available energy: right-hand scale: tonnes of oil equivalent/chained 2015 eur thousands) a teeta energy intensity (hs) overall dependence ——hicp «= dependence on oil == dependence on gas 90 0.14 . 3 80 0.12 ° | 70 any - 0.10 1 0 ivatnal yh mai nal | 60 - 0.08 2 50 0.06 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1999 2006 2013 2020 sources: left panel: world input-output database, eurostat and ecb staff calculations; right panel: eurostat and ecb calculations. notes: energy intensity is measured as the ratio between gross available energy and real gdp. the latest observations are for december 2… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.387 | shift in soending between goods and services euro area united states (individual expenditures as percentages of private consumption, (individual expenditures as percentages of private consumption, percentage point differences compared with january 2019) percentage point differences compared with january 2019) = goods = goods = services = services 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 zy, -2 -4 -4 -b -6 a1 a2 03 4 a @ oo a4 a1 @ a 4 01/2019 = o7/2019) 01202072020 = ot/2021 = 072021 2019 2020 2021 sources: bureau of economic analysis, eurostat and ecb staff calculations. notes: aggregation of all euro area countries except slovenia, greece, lithuania, slovakia, portugal and belgium, and using estimated values for spain. the latest observations are for december 2021 for the united states and the third quarter o… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.368 | contributions of energy-sensitive components to goods and services inflation in the euro area (annual percentage changes and percentage point contributions) eurostat and ecb staff calculations. notes: the term “energy-sensitive component” reflects items with a share of energy in direct costs above the average share of energy across services items (left-hand panel) and non-energy industrial goods (neig) items (right-hand panel). the latest observations are for september 2022. |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.354 | beveridge curve negotiated wages (y-axis: job vacancy rate, percentages of jobs; x- (annual percentage changes) axis: u7 rate, percentages of the labour force) @ beveridge curve — u7 versus jvr me fo are =n any 278 20213 -<=-euro area (excluding = - ; bonuses) : —=netherlands 2.50 201904 a 5 5 “ne 2.25 4 4b 2.00 202002 ~ ~ | 1.75 — 150 201103 ° “ty a -y it | | eta 1.25 1.00 0 “talelelclalelelclale 0 = = “tole tr ai) 5 10 15 °20 95 big|gb|gig|g|g|gia|a]a} is cs als 5|a ’alle: slale g| 2019 2020 2021 | 2019 9020 2021 left-hand panel. sources: ecb calculations based on data from eurostat, federal employment agency germany, ifo institute munich, ministere du travail, de l’emploi et de i’insertion, instituto nazionale previdenza sociale (inps), and ministerio de inclusion, seguridad social y… |
The most representative speeches:
5.44 Topic 44: financial; market; financial market; impact; volatility
5.44.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | financial | 1 | 0.2021475 | turmoil | 1 | 0.9995617 |
| 44 | market | 2 | 0.1868745 | financial market | 2 | 0.9993866 |
| 44 | financial market | 3 | 0.1159476 | financial turmoil | 3 | 0.9986852 |
| 44 | impact | 4 | 0.0277807 | market volatility | 4 | 0.9986849 |
| 44 | volatility | 5 | 0.0247724 | turbulence | 5 | 0.9984230 |
| 44 | turmoil | 6 | 0.0238467 | market turmoil | 6 | 0.9984210 |
| 44 | tension | 7 | 0.0137804 | tension | 7 | 0.9980718 |
| 44 | development | 8 | 0.0136647 | volatility | 8 | 0.9978953 |
| 44 | turbulence | 9 | 0.0113506 | financial market development | 9 | 0.9978084 |
| 44 | affect | 10 | 0.0104250 | financial | 10 | 0.9977169 |
| 44 | real economy | 11 | 0.0101936 | market turbulence | 11 | 0.9976317 |
| 44 | correction | 12 | 0.0085737 | correction | 12 | 0.9974589 |
| 44 | financial turmoil | 13 | 0.0084580 | market development | 13 | 0.9971963 |
| 44 | market volatility | 14 | 0.0083423 | financial market turmoil | 14 | 0.9971939 |
| 44 | associate | 15 | 0.0082266 | market | 15 | 0.9971895 |
5.44.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.269 | global financial market turbulence and the economic downturn we are currently in an extraordinary situation. it is marked by an intensification and broadening of the global financial market turbulence – in particular since september last year – and a sharp downturn in the world economy. the tensions have increasingly spilled over from the financial sector to the real economy. their negative effects can be felt worldwide. since the end of 2008 virtually all economies – both of the industrialised countries and the emerging markets – have been moving in the same direction. this considerably contributes to the scale of the present downturn. this economic downturn has also affected the euro area. foreign demand for exports from the euro area has fallen. very low confidence and tight financin… |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.256 | absorb shocks – and can tolerate a higher level of volatility – without this volatility having an adverse effect on growth. 16 globalisation and the volatility and liquidity of financial markets an important issue for financial system stability is whether financial globalisation has been – or can be– a key factor in reducing volatility and increasing liquidity in financial markets. over a number of years, before the current financial market turmoil, global financial markets were characterised by abundant liquidity which had indeed reached unprecedented levels. financial market liquidity, a concept distinct from monetary liquidity, is a measure of the ability of market participants to undertake transactions without triggering large changes in asset prices. the abundant financial market l… |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.191 | causes of the financial market turmoil what have been the underlying main causes of the financial market turmoil? what have been the key weaknesses in the functioning of the financial system that have been revealed? and what are the appropriate further responses of market participants and policy-makers? a full diagnosis of the causes and weaknesses is not yet complete and, indeed, not possible as the 19 see ecb (2007b), box 7, on the propagation of the sub-prime shock to other markets. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.186 | lessons of the financial market turmoil an economic recovery must not however be a reason for returning to “business as usual”. lessons must be learnt from the financial market turbulence. this work is still under way. many national, european and international institutions and bodies are discussing the conclusions to be drawn for the financial system. the global financial system must become |
| Lucas Papademos: The adoption of the euro and economic performance in Monetary Union | Period_1 | 2007-11-28 | 0.178 |
|
| Luis de Guindos: Most recent ECB monetary policy decisions | Period_2 | 2018-07-19 | 0.106 | of japan. looking at central bank communication, what is of particular importance to market participants as central banks wind down their net asset purchases? what were the main lessons from the us federal reserve’s experience? are there certain structural developments that could hinder a smooth end to net purchases? how do you foresee the reaction in fixed income segments that have benefited from inflows through the portfolio rebalancing channel? last but not least, your third item, the discussion on the hidden risks to bond markets, is probably the most challenging topic. it is widely known that market participants often tend to focus on the same risks at the same time. but today’s discussion should be an exercise in thinking outside of the box to try to identify potential pressure po… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-03-14 | 0.091 | inflation – which was falling by the way – and a number about nominal wage growth. in a sense they reacted with a sharp market correction, which was in a sense amplified by the conditions of financial markets, especially the stocks, especially the equity market. it was mostly limited to the equity market and it was pretty short in terms of reaction. in europe the situation is different. in europe we don’t see wage growth of that amount, we don’t see inflation rates of that amount. it’s just that the risk is different. first one was on the sensitivity of… draghi: if we make exception for what’s happening in the united states between market correction, statements, various statements on trade and other issues, you would agree you don’t see much volatility in our financial markets in the eu… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2014-01-17 | 0.088 | on financial-market fragmentation: “fragmentation in european markets will subside only very gradually. that’s because economic convergence itself is slow. it’s taking place but it takes time for reforms to feed into the economic fabric of each country. and then it takes time for structural changes in the economy to be acknowledged by financial market participants, particularly in terms of credit supply. there’s not much that we can do about that time dimension.” |
| Isabel Schnabel: COVID-19 and monetary policy - reinforcing prevailing challenges | Period_2 | 2020-11-24 | 0.087 | 24/11/2020 covid-19 and monetary policy: reinforcing prevailing challenges acted as an important circuit breaker that stopped the pandemic from turning into a full-blown financial crisis (see slide 4). slide 4 pepp highly effective in stabilising financial markets in doing so, it saved millions of jobs and businesses. its strong impact on the economy was in line with a rich literature that suggests that monetary policy is most effective during periods of market turmoil or when the economy is in a severe recession.[5] in these circumstances, a tightening of financial conditions damages the economy more severely due to a negative multiplier effect (see left chart slide 5). monetary policy that acts to offset a tightening in financial conditions is then highly effective. slide 5 monetary p… |
| Luis de Guindos: Communication, expectations and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-08-27 | 0.083 | luis de guindos: communication, expectations and monetary policy intervention by mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, at the ecb policy panel of the annual congress of the european economic association, manchester, 27 august 2019. * * * introduction ladies and gentlemen, every year, the ecb organises a policy panel at the annual congress of the european economic association.1 the intention of these panels is to combine the results of research and the views of policy makers to advance our thinking on a topic of great policy relevance. this year, it has been straightforward to decide on such a topic. communication and expectations are central to the conduct of monetary policy, and there is a substantial body of research that allows us to have an informed discus… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.139 | equity and housing markets equity markets in the euro area have largely moved sideways after the sharp correction experienced at the onset of russia’s invasion of ukraine (chart 15). that correction was mostly driven by downward revisions in longer-term earnings expectations amid mounting recession fears. since then, equity markets have been driven by two largely offsetting factors: while rising risk-free discount rates in the context of monetary policy normalisation have put downward pressure on equity valuations, lower equity risk premia have worked in the opposite direction. if equity risk premia were to increase in the context of a slowing economy, tighter financial conditions and elevated uncertainty, the correction in equity markets would be sharper than experienced so far. |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.098 | in the non-bank financial sector, it is imperative to reduce vulnerabilities arising from liquidity mismatch by better aligning redemption terms with asset liquidity. international efforts should prioritise developing a globally consistent approach for addressing risk from leverage – including synthetic leverage. high financial market volatility and associated liquidity challenges have once more highlighted the need to improve margining practices and the ability of non-banks to meet margin calls in derivatives transactions. |
| Luis de Guindos: Building the financial system of the 21st century | Period_3 | 2022-05-23 | 0.090 | firms with higher credit risk, or firms in energy-intensive industries that are more vulnerable to risks from rising commodity prices. turning to financial markets, corrections we saw after the russian invasion of ukraine have remained largely orderly. but high volatility in some commodity prices has triggered liquidity stress in related derivatives markets. an increase in initial margin requirements has greatly increased firms’ liquidity needs, making it more difficult for some firms to hedge. this recent episode raises the question of whether margining practices, including those between the clearing member and their clients, may be too procyclical. financial markets remain vulnerable to further corrections that could potentially be triggered by an escalation of the war, or a faster-th… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.072 | euro area banking sector and financial stability the financial stability outlook has deteriorated as weaker economic growth, higher inflation and tighter financing conditions put pressure on the debt servicing capacity of companies and households. despite recent adjustments, financial markets still appear to be pricing in outcomes that could turn out to be too optimistic. this makes valuations vulnerable to a range of possible negative surprises, whether from growth, inflation, monetary policy or corporate profitability. and although open-ended investment funds have slightly reduced their credit risk exposures, their low liquidity buffers imply that there is still a significant risk of these funds amplifying a market correction via forced selling. vulnerabilities also remain elevated in… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.068 | however, these calculations are based on elasticities of financial conditions to policy impulses that are estimated based on data observed in non-stressed market conditions. this implies, in turn, that the impact estimates are typically moderate in size. it follows that this first approach to quantifying the effects of our policies is likely to underestimate by a wide margin their true effect under the macro- financial conditions generated by the extraordinary pandemic shock. this approach likely also understates the overall impact of monetary policy during the pandemic, since it does not take into account that fiscal policy would likely have been less countercyclical in the absence of favourable financing conditions. more generally, in the macroeconomic models that central banks typica… |
The most representative speeches:
5.45 Topic 45: stance; policy stance; monetary policy stance; accommodative; level
5.45.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | stance | 1 | 0.1531240 | policy stance | 1 | 0.9998248 |
| 45 | policy stance | 2 | 0.1059818 | monetary policy stance | 2 | 0.9998247 |
| 45 | monetary policy stance | 3 | 0.0884563 | stance | 3 | 0.9998247 |
| 45 | accommodative | 4 | 0.0646813 | accommodative | 4 | 0.9992991 |
| 45 | level | 5 | 0.0361515 | accommodative monetary | 5 | 0.9990362 |
| 45 | risk | 6 | 0.0335702 | accommodative monetary policy | 6 | 0.9990361 |
| 45 | period | 7 | 0.0334343 | current monetary policy | 7 | 0.9981595 |
| 45 | accommodative monetary | 8 | 0.0327550 | current monetary | 8 | 0.9978088 |
| 45 | accommodative monetary policy | 9 | 0.0311248 | accommodative stance | 9 | 0.9972384 |
| 45 | time | 10 | 0.0288152 | monetary stance | 10 | 0.9969314 |
| 45 | current | 11 | 0.0182184 | prolong period | 11 | 0.9967580 |
| 45 | contribute | 12 | 0.0160447 | level close | 12 | 0.9966696 |
| 45 | determine | 13 | 0.0107463 | determine | 13 | 0.9965814 |
| 45 | remain | 14 | 0.0097953 | accommodative policy | 14 | 0.9965804 |
| 45 | signal | 15 | 0.0092518 | period | 15 | 0.9964895 |
5.45.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-03-27 | 0.110 | the separation of the tasks of determining the monetary policy stance on the one hand and the preservation of the proper functioning of the money markets on the other hand let me now address the issue of the separation between the determination of the monetary policy stance on the one hand and its actual implementation on the other hand, meant as keeping short-term rates close to the level chosen by the governing council. in accordance with the treaty provisions, the primary objective of the ecb is to maintain price stability in the euro area. to that end, the governing council determines, on the basis of its economic and monetary analyses, the appropriate monetary policy stance by setting the key ecb interest rates at the level that ensures the maintenance of price stability over the m… |
| Jürgen Stark: Adjusting monetary policy in a challenging environment | Period_1 | 2011-06-17 | 0.097 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Adjusting monetary policy in a challenging environment | Period_1 | 2011-06-17 | 0.095 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.092 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Five years of the euro - past achievements and future challenges | Period_1 | 2004-05-03 | 0.086 | it should be clear from what i have said that, over the long term, the key to addressing the problem of europe’s less-than-satisfactory growth performance lies with national governments, trade unions and employers, and not with the ecb. monetary policy cannot be expected to increase economic growth sustainably by tolerating higher inflation. what it can do is to promote long-term growth by maintaining an environment of price stability - and this is precisely what the ecb is committed to doing. at the present juncture, with the euro area economy operating below capacity, the pace of economic recovery hinges critically on strengthening the confidence of both consumers and producers. the ecb’s current monetary policy stance - with interest rates at their lowest level in over 50 years - has… |
| Yves Mersch: Asset price inflation and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2020-01-28 | 0.138 | indeed, the prolonged period of substantial accommodation and the unconventional nature of our measures call for vigilance on the efficacy of the policy measures and might affect the strategic calibration and the appropriateness of the monetary policy stance. this vigilance is particularly warranted in the light of some signs that monetary policy is encouraging increased risk-taking and contributing to elevated asset price inflation and income inequality. to my mind, this raises two concerns for the long-run efficacy of our measures, which i wish to discuss today. |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.119 | to ensure the continued smooth transmission of our monetary policy stance, we decided to adjust the parameters of the new series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (tltro iii) and announce a two-tier system for reserve remuneration. both measures serve to mitigate the risk of possible side effects of the ecb’s accommodative monetary policy stance on bank-based intermediation undermining the sustained convergence of inflation. |
| Peter Praet: Economic developments in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-02-12 | 0.118 | the context for our recent decisions a stylised way of thinking about why we introduced our recent measures is to use the concept of the “inflation gap”. this gap is the difference between our aim of an inflation rate below but close to 2% over the medium-term and our projection for inflation over that same horizon, based on our current monetary policy stance and the information on the state and evolution of the economy that we have access to today. if the inflation gap widens, and the monetary policy stance remains unchanged, it follows that there is a “missing stimulus” to which we may need to respond. at its meeting on 22 january, the governing council assessed that two factors had come together which had led to a widening of this “inflation gap” and had hence rendered our stimulus i… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The European Central Bank’s policy in the COVID-19 crisis - a medium-term perspective | Period_2 | 2020-06-11 | 0.109 | under the pepp until at least the end of 2022. calibrating pepp this brings me to the second question – the calibration of the pepp. by removing duration risk from the market, pepp reduces the bond free-float ratio –the share of bonds that need to be held by private price-sensitive investors relative to total bond supply (see left chart on slide 8). in the absence of our new measures, this ratio would have gradually increased on the back of the large coronavirus-induced increase in debt issuance, thereby putting upward pressure on bond yields. the pepp envelope has been calibrated with a view to restoring and preserving financial conditions that are consistent with bringing inflation back to the pre-covid-19 inflation path. the evidence speaks for itself. upon the announcement of the pe… |
| Philip R Lane: Low inflation - macroeconomic risks and the monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.106 | the monetary policy stance and the banking system the evidence shows that the accommodative monetary stance has been effective in encouraging banks to provide more credit and firms to boost investment.[12] ,[13] in terms of the effectiveness of the monetary stance, a countervailing factor is that the negative policy rate can mechanically weigh on the net interest income of the banking system, since banks typically do not pass on negative rates to most retail depositors.[14] |
| Luis de Guindos: Euro area current policy challenges | Period_3 | 2022-09-16 | 0.091 | the ecb’s recent monetary policy decisions this outlook for growth and inflation leaves monetary policymakers with no easy choices. some might ask why the ecb is normalising its interest rates in the face of an economic slowdown and high inflation that are largely driven by a cost-push shock. it is true that we are not in a classic demand-driven overheating episode, and that energy remains the dominant driver of rising inflation and slowing growth. but at the current low level of interest rates, monetary policy is still accommodative, thus supporting demand and ultimately also contributing to price pressures. with inflation at record-high levels, such an accommodative monetary policy stance is no longer appropriate. moreover, we need to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anc… |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.086 | the even transmission of monetary policy the smooth and even transmission of our monetary policy across the euro area is required to preserve the singleness of monetary policy and achieve our mandate of price stability. changes in financing conditions that go beyond the level merited by fundamental factors undermine the achievement of that objective. sovereign bond yields are an important reference point for assessing the transmission of our policy stance because they act as a benchmark for determining the financing conditions for firms and households. it is natural for sovereign yields to differ somewhat across euro area countries, owing to idiosyncratic factors, such as public debt-to-gdp ratios, budget deficits or long-run growth rates. however, at times yields can, and do, rapidly d… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.079 | governing council. the new instrument will have to be effective, while being proportionate and containing sufficient safeguards to preserve the impetus of member states towards a sound fiscal policy. this decision lies squarely within the ecb’s tradition. in the past, the ecb has made use of separate instruments to target inflation and to preserve the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. measures to preserve transmission could be used at any level of interest rates – so long as they were designed not to interfere with the monetary policy stance. at times when inflation fell too low, it made sense to shift from “separation” to “combination” so that all tools reinforced the required policy easing. that is why, for example, we linked asset purchases tightly to forward… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.078 | in the rest of the world); and the strength of self-reinforcing persistence dynamics (including pipeline pressures, second round effects, shifts in inflation expectations). in addition, as reviewed in this speech, there is also a feedback loop between our monetary policy decisions and monetary policy transmission mechanism. in particular, in calibrating our future monetary policy decisions, it will be essential to closely monitor the impact of our monetary policy decisions on the different stages of the transmission mechanism. in one direction, if we observe that transmission is weaker or slower than expected, this would require a further tightening of the monetary policy stance. in the other direction, if we observe that transmission is stronger or faster than expected, this would requ… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.078 | the path ahead for rate normalisation based on the overall outlook, the process of normalising our monetary policy will continue in a determined and sustained manner. but given the uncertainty we still face, the pace of interest rate normalisation cannot be defined ex ante. as i laid out in a recent blog post[10], the appropriate monetary policy stance has to incorporate our principles of gradualism and optionality. gradualism allows policymakers to assess the impact of their moves on the inflation outlook as they go, which can be a prudent strategy in times of uncertainty. optionality ensures that policy can react nimbly to the incoming data on the economy and inflation expectations and, if uncertainty decreases, re-optimise the policy path as necessary. indeed, there are clearly condi… |
The most representative speeches:
5.46 Topic 46: bank; lend; credit; loan; bank lend
5.46.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | bank | 1 | 0.0959694 | lend rate | 1 | 0.9995617 |
| 46 | lend | 2 | 0.0741405 | bank lend | 2 | 0.9992991 |
| 46 | credit | 3 | 0.0591154 | lend | 3 | 0.9992111 |
| 46 | loan | 4 | 0.0560678 | bank lend rate | 4 | 0.9985089 |
| 46 | bank lend | 5 | 0.0314039 | lend survey | 5 | 0.9979822 |
| 46 | lend rate | 6 | 0.0261593 | enterprise | 6 | 0.9975468 |
| 46 | firm | 7 | 0.0217652 | bank lend survey | 7 | 0.9975449 |
| 46 | fund | 8 | 0.0214817 | credit standard | 8 | 0.9975444 |
| 46 | household | 9 | 0.0199225 | loan | 9 | 0.9971912 |
| 46 | condition | 10 | 0.0192846 | smes | 10 | 0.9971032 |
| 46 | cost | 11 | 0.0173710 | medium size | 11 | 0.9961414 |
| 46 | finance | 12 | 0.0164497 | credit ease | 12 | 0.9958758 |
| 46 | survey | 13 | 0.0158118 | fund condition | 13 | 0.9956163 |
| 46 | ease | 14 | 0.0155992 | medium size enterprise | 14 | 0.9953501 |
| 46 | borrow | 15 | 0.0122682 | credit | 15 | 0.9953381 |
5.46.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-04-01 | 0.214 | structural issues report on housing finance in the euro area let me now turn to the second topic, namely housing finance, which is covered in this year’s ecb structural issues report. as in previous years, i will present to you the general thrust of our report, which will be published later today. the report analyses trends and differences in the characteristics of housing loans, in the funding of bank loans, and in the spread between mortgage interest rates and the funding costs of banks. it also compares housing finance in the euro area, the united kingdom and the united states. generally, euro area banks are significantly stricter in terms of non-interest conditions on loans, partly explaining the significantly smaller sub-prime market here. on the funding side, relatively stable ban… |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.177 |
|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-04-11 | 0.162 | the growth of household borrowing has moderated over recent months, reflecting the impact of higher key ecb interest rates since december 2005 and cooling housing markets in several parts of the euro area. however, the growth of loans to non-financial corporations has remained very robust. bank borrowing by euro area non-financial corporations grew at an annual rate of 14.8% in the year to february 2008. overall, bank loans to the domestic private sector have grown at around 11% on an annual basis for the past two years. for the time being, there is little evidence that the financial market turbulence seen since early august 2007 has strongly influenced the overall dynamics of broad money and credit aggregates. notwithstanding the tightening of credit standards reported in the bank lending |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.120 | the prospects for economic growth the latest data and survey indicators point to a substantial decline of real gdp in the fourth quarter of 2008 and to a continued weakness in economic activity in the euro area in the first half of this year. confidence is at historically low levels, world trade has sharply declined and financing conditions remain tight. all these factors are adversely affecting aggregate demand. recently, some survey indicators showed signs of stabilisation. it is too early to declare that we may be reaching the bottom of the downturn on the basis of these signals. other indicators point to a less encouraging, if not gloomier, outlook. in other words, what we see flashing amid the clouds that cover the economic landscape right now could either be a silver lining and a … |
| Juergen Stark: Contributions of central bank statistics in a global context | Period_1 | 2010-10-25 | 0.113 | these caveats notwithstanding, there is a remarkable difference in household debt levels. the greater home ownership in the us and the uk compared with the euro area due to a more developed mortgage market has certainly contributed significantly to the higher levels of household debt in these countries. this chart illustrates a comparison of total household wealth. in this context, it is my pleasure to announce that the ecb will publish for the first time quarterly data on household wealth in the next statistical press release “euro area financial and non-financial developments” to be issued on 28 october 2010. the proportion of financial wealth to total wealth is much higher in the us, mainly because of the higher weight of private pension schemes, and it is also more volatile, owing t… |
| Peter Praet: The transmission of recent non-standard measures | Period_2 | 2015-12-14 | 0.371 | conditions, staff analysis finds that the app has had an indirect effect on bank lending conditions through its marked effect on long-term government bond yields. 1 this indirect effect has been further reinforced by the beneficial impact of lower long-term yields on the macroeconomic outlook and hence on the credit component embedded in lending rates. with bank lending rates lower, the volume of loans to nfcs is now recovering in the euro area as a whole as well. in may last year, before the announcement of the credit easing measures, loans to nfcs contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the euro area as a whole. since july 2015, however, the year-on-year contraction has stopped and loans have started to grow at a very modest rate just above zero. as a result, fewer small and medium-si… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy - past, present and future | Period_2 | 2015-11-25 | 0.313 | for asset purchases to boost activity and inflation, however, these improvements in financial markets need to be passed through into credit conditions for the real economy. here there was another concern about the effectiveness of our policy – that with banks deleveraging, trying to enlist them as vehicles of monetary policy might be futile, as banks would retain the stimulus and try to deleverage rather than create more loans. in fact, the power of transmission through the banking system has been rising through the life of our programme. between june 2014 and today, composite lending rates for non-financial companies have declined by more than 70 basis points for the euro area as a whole, and by between 110 and 120 basis points in stressed economies in the euro area periphery. that is … |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy transmission in the euro area | Period_2 | 2016-10-12 | 0.311 | impact of easing measures on financing conditions and macroeconomic developments what is already clear, however, is that our package of unconventional measures has had a substantial impact on euro area financial conditions – an impact which was indeed observable soon after their launch in june 2014. bank lending rates that had remained stubbornly high in the preceding years started trending downwards already in the third quarter of 2014. borrowing costs faced by households and companies have since dropped to unprecedented lows. and this improvement is also evident if we look at the dispersion of bank-individual lending rates (for loans to non-financial corporations). the country distribution of interest rates charged by banks has returned to levels comparable with pre-crisis norms. the … |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy - past and present | Period_2 | 2017-03-17 | 0.310 | our measures have helped induce this broad easing of borrowing conditions very much through the channels we expected. on the liability side, bank funding conditions have eased considerably, with the average cost of funding in the euro area reaching historical lows of around 40 basis points. very low short-term rates have encouraged banks to rebalance their liability structures away from more expensive debt securities and towards deposits, providing funding cost relief. but there are of course limits to such substitution – namely the incoming requirement to hold a minimum amount of eligible liabilities and own funds (tlac/mrel) – so it is important that wholesale funding costs have also come down substantially. our outright purchases under the app have tightened spreads on covered bonds … |
| Peter Praet: The transmission of recent non-standard measures | Period_2 | 2015-12-14 | 0.308 | i would like to thank carlo altavilla for his contribution to this speech. since june 2014 the ecb has adopted a series of new monetary policy measures, with the aim to both enhance the transmission of policy and to reinforce the accommodative policy stance to counter growing risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation. those measures have included reducing key policy rates to levels below zero, introducing a credit easing package – specifically our targeted long-term refinancing operations (tltros) – and expanding our asset purchase programme (app). they were decided against the backdrop of credit dynamics that were at the weaker end of what can typically be observed in the aftermath of banking crises, and, from summer of 2014 onwards, heightened downside risks to the inflation ou… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.349 | : credit standards, loan demand and bank loan growth to euro area firms (lhs: net percentages, rhs: quarterly growth rates in percentages) ecb (bsi and bls). notes: positive bars indicate a net easing of credit standards (yellow) and a net increase in loan demand (red). the blue line shows the two-quarter moving average of loan growth to euro area non-financial corporations. net percentages for credit standards are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “tightened considerably” and “tightened somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “eased somewhat” and “eased considerably”. net percentages for demand for loans are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “increased considerably” and “i… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.324 | : share of fixed-rate loans for households and firms in the euro area (percentages, based on amounts outstanding) ecb (bsi). latest observation: august 2022. bank lending channel in the euro area’s bank-centred economy, the bank lending channel plays an important role. it covers the transmission through banks to a larger share of firms, also including smaller firms which do not issue bonds, as well as to households.[14] bank funding costs are the first important element in the bank lending transmission channel. for about half of banking-sector liabilities, corresponding to debt securities and wholesale deposits, the remuneration is closely linked to market rates and therefore passed through quickly to the marginal funding costs of banks.[15] by contrast, retail deposit rates adjust more… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.304 | bank lending rates, in particular for households. while the volume of bank lending to households remains strong, it is expected to decline in view of lower demand. lending to firms has also been robust as high production costs, inventory building and lower reliance on market funding have created a continued need for credit from banks. at the same time, demand for loans to finance investment has declined. money growth has continued to moderate owing to lower liquid savings and lower eurosystem asset purchases. our most recent bank lending survey reports that credit standards tightened for all loan categories in the second quarter of the year, as banks are becoming more concerned about the risks faced by their customers in the current uncertain environment. banks expect to continue tighte… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.303 | : developments in lending rates for new loans of euro area firms and households for house purchase ecb (mir). notes: the indicator for the total cost of borrowing for firms and for households for house purchase is calculated by aggregating short-term and long-term rates using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes. latest observation: august 2022. since the fourth quarter of 2021, banks have also started to tighten their credit standards for loans to euro area firms. the current tightening follows an extended period during which credit standards were eased reflecting the monetary policy accommodation that prevailed at the time. since the end of last year, monetary policy normalisation in the context of high inflation and the dampened economic outlook due to the rise in energy… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.273 | compared with lending to firms, we may see the growth in loans to households for house purchases react more strongly to monetary policy normalisation and high inflation in the coming quarters, following strong mortgage loan growth during past years, especially in some euro area countries. both credit supply and demand developments point to a weakening of housing loan growth in the coming weeks and months. credit standards on housing loans have tightened since the start of monetary policy normalisation and especially in the second quarter of 2022. the higher cost of living due to the sharp increases in energy bills and food prices, together with increases in construction costs, limit the capacity of households to take up a new mortgage and finance it at higher lending rates. this is refl… |
The most representative speeches:
5.47 Topic 47: underlie; headline; headline inflation; core; measure
5.47.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | underlie | 1 | 0.0513065 | headline | 1 | 0.9996495 |
| 47 | headline | 2 | 0.0458185 | core | 2 | 0.9993867 |
| 47 | headline inflation | 3 | 0.0367467 | headline inflation | 3 | 0.9993866 |
| 47 | core | 4 | 0.0349547 | core inflation | 4 | 0.9993863 |
| 47 | measure | 5 | 0.0324907 | underlie inflation | 5 | 0.9987733 |
| 47 | underlie inflation | 6 | 0.0286828 | exclude | 6 | 0.9979849 |
| 47 | pressure | 7 | 0.0276748 | inflation exclude | 7 | 0.9979815 |
| 47 | core inflation | 8 | 0.0237549 | underlie | 8 | 0.9974528 |
| 47 | energy | 9 | 0.0235309 | exclude food | 9 | 0.9971464 |
| 47 | dynamic | 10 | 0.0202829 | underlie price | 10 | 0.9965375 |
| 47 | exclude | 11 | 0.0191629 | price pressure | 11 | 0.9963178 |
| 47 | food | 12 | 0.0187149 | exclude energy | 12 | 0.9960931 |
| 47 | price pressure | 13 | 0.0164750 | item | 13 | 0.9957048 |
| 47 | domestic | 14 | 0.0163630 | food | 14 | 0.9957014 |
| 47 | slack | 15 | 0.0163630 | upward trend | 15 | 0.9956157 |
5.47.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Central banks in the 21st century | Period_1 | 2006-06-13 | 0.294 | core versus headline inflation despite the convergence of many aspects of the monetary policy strategies, there are still important differences. one such difference is whether the operational target for inflation should be the headline or a core measure of inflation. alan has declared that he is firmly in the “core” camp for several reasons. he argues that a central bank should aim at core inflation because (i) it cannot effectively control headline inflation given its inability to offset supply shocks; (ii) it can better forecast future headline inflation on the basis of past core-inflation dynamics, and (iii) targeting core inflation is likely to result in more sensible monetary policy in the presence of supply (energy price) shocks. in this debate, i am firmly in the “headline inflat… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.160 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.149 | some implications for the ecb’s definition of price stability the medium-term orientation of the ecb monetary policy strategy ensures that the governing council duly discounts short-term price volatility in its deliberations. our medium-term orientation is supported by recent research in monetary economics. on the one hand, there is a substantial theoretical literature on the optimal response of monetary policy to inflation. on efficiency grounds the best way to absorb relative price shocks is to let more flexible prices – like those of commodities and oil – bear the brunt of the downward or upward adjustment, while stabilizing more inflexible prices and wages, and preventing inflationary pressures to materialize owing to possible second round effects. 30 on the other hand, the transmis… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.108 | inflation rates are those such as clothes or electronic devices, which undergo constant quality improvements. a few items, mainly related to oil, recorded very strong price cuts. to check whether price cuts are generalised beyond food and energy, we could look at measures that exclude such items. these – the so-called measures of exclusion-based underlying inflation – can be constructed in several ways. i won’t go into the technical details here. let’s just take the lowest and the highest at any point in time and construct a range. this range is shown as the shaded area of chart 6, together with the headline inflation rate. the range has come down from the peak and is at or below 1.8%. although this level is below the ecb definition of price stability, it is not exceptionally low and is… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: The challenges facing monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-01-27 | 0.087 | basket of goods and services purchased by households. for example, food and energy account for about 30% of the average shopping basket in the euro area. assuming an average increase of these products by 4% a year, more or less in line with the rate of growth of the world economy (or long-term interest rates, according to the hotelling rule), average prices in the euro area will increase by 1.2% only because of the effect of these products. it is therefore not a component that can be ignored, as it would be if core inflation were used as a reference. this concept is obviously losing its relevance in a global world. the second effect concerns the implications for prices of other products, making up 70% of the basket, and which include manufactured goods and services, some of which are im… |
| Peter Praet: The economic situation in the euro area and the implications for monetary policy | Period_2 | 2017-03-28 | 0.288 | market conditions, with unemployment steadily falling despite a rise in participation. these developments increase households’ real disposable income, which in turn boosts their spending. business investment is also expected to continue recovering amid support from better corporate profitability and the very favourable financing conditions. as for price developments, after hovering at levels well below 1% for three years, with occasional dips into negative territory, euro area headline inflation edged higher towards the end of last year and reached 2% in february. this upward movement of inflation mainly reflects increases in energy and food prices. underlying inflation – which relates more to domestic price pressures – continues to remain very subdued and has yet to show clear signs of… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy and the economic recovery in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-04-10 | 0.242 | this was also the assessment of the governing council at its last monetary policy meeting in march, where the staff projections for growth in the coming years were revised slightly upwards. and in light of the improving risk outlook, the council affirmed that it is no longer concerned about deflation risks, nor do we perceive a sense of urgency to take further measures to combat adverse tail risks. inflation dynamics depend on continued policy support yet despite these signs of progress, it is clearly too soon to declare success. in important ways the outlook for price stability remains unchanged. in particular, while growth and employment rates have been converging upwards across the euro area, significant gaps still remain in terms of levels. in large parts of the euro area there are … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Effectiveness of Monetary Union and the Capital Markets Union | Period_2 | 2017-04-10 | 0.228 | but while significant progress has been made, it is too soon to declare complete success. headline inflation has increased, but has yet to sustainably converge towards our objective. the increase mostly reflects rising energy and food price inflation, with underlying inflation pressures still subdued (chart 5). the flash estimate for march shows that headline inflation has dropped to 1.5% from 2% in february and that underlying inflation decreased from 0.9% to 0.7%. we had previously warned that headline inflation could decline after march-april as a result of the reduced statistical base effect of comparing this year’s price levels of oil and other commodities with their value a year ago. the decrease in underlying inflation, however, is disappointing. the domestic drivers of inflation… |
| Peter Praet: Ensuring price stability | Period_2 | 2017-05-05 | 0.224 | m1 and m3 growth. judging from their leading indicator properties on economic activity, this might also bring some confidence on the strength of the underlying economic recovery. underlying inflation dynamics remain subdued is macroeconomic repair complete? i would not conclude in this direction. first, while the drag on domestic activity from abroad – which was considerable in certain stages of the crisis – has largely faded, and while global data and indicators point to sustained momentum in activity and trade early in 2017, the ongoing synchronised recovery is still depending on a high degree of policy support. and even if on the upside there is a possibility that stronger sentiment in financial markets and confidence indicators translate into a faster pick-up in activity than curren… |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy and the euro area economic expansion | Period_2 | 2017-10-13 | 0.211 | two-thirds of total private sector employment in the euro area. heterogeneity of lending rates across countries has also fallen sharply. for example, the difference between the average lending rate for firms in countries that were severely affected by the crisis versus other countries has narrowed by around 100 basis points over this period. the pass-through of monetary policy has become more even. these positive developments have been further supported by the second series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations, as a result of which banks are passing on the favourable funding conditions to their customers.2 the sharp reduction in bank lending rates has been accompanied by easier access to funding, as recent surveys have shown.3 moreover, bank lending volumes have been gradually… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The globalisation of inflation | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.315 | because the euro area is a net importer of energy, this surge in inflation is often referred to as “imported inflation” – in other words, inflation over which monetary policy has no, or very little, control. in this context, comparisons are often made with the united states, where energy is making a smaller contribution to headline inflation, suggesting that price pressures are predominately a result of domestic forces. and indeed, there is currently a large gap between the euro area and the united states when looking at measures of inflation that exclude energy and food (slide 3, left-hand side). for at least three reasons, however, such comparisons should be treated with caution. first, even if we exclude the impact of energy and food, inflation in the euro area is currently at levels… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.162 | policy tightening in the face of cost-push shocks that might elevate headline inflation temporarily but fade within the projection horizon. it is important to recognise that underlying inflation is a broad concept and refers to the persistent component of inflation that filters out short-lived movements in the inflation rate and that provides the best guide to medium-term inflation developments. in the current context, two factors make it especially difficult to interpret standard indicators of underlying inflation. first, the scale of the energy shock means that the producers of many goods and services that are included in the core inflation measure face higher energy input costs and are passing these cost increases on to consumer prices. to the extent that the increase in energy price… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.144 | inflation excluding food and energy: euro area (left) vs. united states (right) eurostat, haver and ecb staff calculations. notes: for the euro area, the panel shows the hicp excluding food and energy, as well as the contributions to it. for the united states the panel shows the cpi excluding food and energy, as well as the contributions to it. items affected by bottlenecks include new motor cars, second-hand motor cars, spare parts and accessories for personal transport equipment, and furnishings and household equipment. items affected by reopening include clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, recreation services, hotels and motels, and domestic and international flights. rents include actual rents paid by tenants, and for the united states also imputed rents for owner-occupie… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox and the effective lower bound | Period_3 | 2021-11-16 | 0.137 | “durably for the rest of the projection horizon.” the third condition is that the governing council “judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term.” let me highlight today two key features of this rate forward guidance. first, requiring that we see inflation reaching two per cent not only “well ahead of the end of our projection horizon” but also “durably for the rest of the projection horizon” ensures that interest rate policy will not react to inflation shocks that are expected to fade away before the end of our projection horizon. second, the condition that “realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at t… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.135 | the persistence of inflation but the size and complexity of these shocks are also creating uncertainty about how persistent this inflation is likely to be. we are not facing a straightforward situation of generalised excess demand or economic overheating, in which case the trajectory of medium-term inflation would have been clearer. despite the bounceback in services, private consumption in the euro area is still more than 2% below its pre- pandemic level. and investment remains subdued. although there have been some signs of above-target revisions in recent months, longer-term inflation expectations currently stand at around 2% across a range of measures. this supports our baseline projection for inflation to converge back towards our medium-term inflation target. at the same time, inf… |
The most representative speeches:
5.48 Topic 48: conference; challenge; issue; address; discuss
5.48.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | conference | 1 | 0.0375503 | pleasure | 1 | 0.9989479 |
| 48 | challenge | 2 | 0.0332193 | gentleman | 2 | 0.9988610 |
| 48 | issue | 3 | 0.0297544 | lady | 3 | 0.9986858 |
| 48 | address | 4 | 0.0271558 | invite | 4 | 0.9984644 |
| 48 | discuss | 5 | 0.0261452 | conference | 5 | 0.9980688 |
| 48 | gentleman | 6 | 0.0258565 | speak | 6 | 0.9978972 |
| 48 | lady | 7 | 0.0255677 | topic | 7 | 0.9976345 |
| 48 | introduction | 8 | 0.0235466 | distinguish | 8 | 0.9972831 |
| 48 | remark | 9 | 0.0200817 | audience | 9 | 0.9972367 |
| 48 | opportunity | 10 | 0.0183493 | discuss | 10 | 0.9971040 |
| 48 | speak | 11 | 0.0177718 | introduction | 11 | 0.9969302 |
| 48 | pleasure | 12 | 0.0173387 | honour | 12 | 0.9969302 |
| 48 | focus | 13 | 0.0169056 | theme | 13 | 0.9966629 |
| 48 | event | 14 | 0.0163281 | opportunity | 14 | 0.9959638 |
| 48 | topic | 15 | 0.0140182 | remark | 15 | 0.9956986 |
5.48.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo: Globalisation, macroeconomic stability and monetary policy at a time of financial turmoil | Period_1 | 2008-09-09 | 0.183 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: South Eastern European challenges and prospects | Period_1 | 2004-12-02 | 0.179 | ladies and gentlemen, i am delighted to talk here in vienna to this distinguished audience at the conference on south eastern europe, the first of its kind organised by the österreichische nationalbank. let me also warmly congratulate the oenb and governor liebscher for the initiative. when i think of the recent enlargement of the eu in central banking terms i cannot do so without thinking of the contribution of the oenb, which has been involved in enlargement issues from the very beginning. this was thanks to its long-standing expertise on central and eastern europe. with this event, the oenb clearly demonstrates once more that it is, inside the eurosystem, at the forefront of the analysis of european integration. the topic that we have for today - south eastern european challenges and… |
| Christian Noyer: Monetary policy formulation in the euro area | Period_1 | 2001-05-25 | 0.171 | introduction ladies and gentlemen, it is a pleasure, and a very great honour, to have been invited to address this special meeting of the national association for business economics and to present the monetary policy of the ecb before this distinguished audience of business economists and policy-makers. the theme of the conference, “monetary policy and the markets” is of the greatest interest – i believe – both to market participants endeavouring to discern and assess central banks’ policy directions, and to the ecb, which, since its creation almost three years ago, has been assigning a prominent role to transparency and openness in its policy-making. in my brief remarks today, i will first elaborate on the institutional set-up of the ecb and its objectives. against this background, i w… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: The first lustrum of the ECB | Period_1 | 2003-06-27 | 0.170 | introduction it gives me great pleasure to address such a distinguished audience today; even more so as it is not the first time i am speaking at the international frankfurt banking evening. on 1 june of this year, the ecb celebrated its fifth anniversary. hence, in my speech today, i will focus on two topics. first, i will discuss some lessons from our experience of monetary policy in the euro area during the first five years of the ecb. second, i will look ahead and elaborate on ongoing developments in the context to the convention on the future of europe, which aims to lay the foundations for a constitutional treaty for the european union. |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.168 | mr duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the european system of central banks keynote address to the president of the european central bank, dr w.f. duisenberg, at a conference organised by the royal institute of international affairs on european economic and monetary union markets and politics under the euro in london on 27/11/98. ladies and gentlemen, i should like to express my appreciation at being invited to deliver a speech at this conference organised by the royal institute of international affairs. it is a great pleasure for me to be here, in london, today. |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy and balance sheet adjustment | Period_2 | 2014-05-28 | 0.134 | i would like to thank jan felix hammermann and arthur saint-guilhem for their significant contribution in the preparation of this speech. ladies and gentlemen it is a great pleasure to be here on the second day of the ecb forum on central banking. i am pleased to welcome on this panel three outstanding central bankers who have shaped our thinking on monetary policy. we have tasked our panellists with reflecting on monetary policy and balance sheet adjustment. i very much look forward to hearing their views on this important and complex topic. but before giving them the floor let me share with you a few thoughts on how the process of balance sheet correction that is taking place in the euro area could influence the shaping of monetary policy in the current conditions. |
| Mario Draghi: The path to recovery and the ECB’s role | Period_2 | 2014-02-28 | 0.133 | *** ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to speak to you tonight. when i last spoke at an event organised by the bundesbank, in march 2012, the euro area stood at a crossroads. one direction pointed to continued malaise, with various vulnerabilities threatening to undo the benefits of economic, financial and even monetary integration. the other direction pointed to gradual repair, with ambitious reform efforts removing the key obstacles to economic stability and growth. the euro area has chosen the latter path. and today, we are seeing first signs that this decision is paying off. at the same time, challenges remain and continued reform efforts are needed to ensure that the recovery proves sustainable. against this background, let me first elaborate on what i think are the key m… |
| Peter Praet: Current issues in monetary policy | Period_2 | 2014-12-10 | 0.132 | ladies and gentlemen, let me thank the organisers for inviting me here today. konrad adenauer – germany’s first post-war chancellor – once famously said, (and freely translated): “why should i care about remarks i made in the past?” he said so knowing that the speed at which events unfold may – at times –outpace our comprehension of them at any given moment. and when i went back to the remarks i gave here in the spring of last year, my impression was that the pace of events over the past year or so was indeed dramatic. in may last year i discussed two things. i discussed the challenges monetary policy faces when banks engage in rapid leveraging and deleveraging. i noted that “the central bank may have to be vigilant that the pace of asset reduction by banks is commensurate with an evolu… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The outlook for the global economy | Period_2 | 2016-05-11 | 0.125 | this is the full text of a speech delivered in abridged form at city week on 9 may. ladies and gentlemen, i would like to thank the organisers for inviting me to participate in this event. in my remarks today, i intend to outline my assessment for the euro area outlook against the backdrop of developments in the rest of the global economy. in doing so, i will discuss the prospects of the euro area’s recovery as well as some of the policy initiatives which are required to make it more lasting and vigorous. the main point that i want to make is that the shock absorption capacity of the euro area has increased. this notwithstanding, the continuation of our accommodative monetary policy needs to be supported by a determined implementation of structural reforms as well as growth friendly fis… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.121 | ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to be here in budapest and to participate in the annual anchor conference. i understand that this will be the last anchor conference for andrás simor in his position as governor of the magyar nemzeti bank. so this is an excellent opportunity for me to pay him a sincere tribute for his work here and as a valued member of the general council of the european central bank (ecb). in my remarks today, i would like to focus on the process of economic convergence in europe. as the experiences of recent years have made clear, this process does not end with a country’s adoption of the euro. nor does participation in the single monetary policy provide automatic delivery of convergence. i will first talk about the challenges facing the euro area as a res… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.132 | prospects for inflation: sneezes and breezes welcome address by isabel schnabel, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the ecb and federal reserve bank of cleveland’s “inflation: drivers and dynamics conference 2021” frankfurt am main, 7 october 2021 introduction euro area headline inflation is expected to have reached 3.4% in september according to the most recent flash estimate, its highest annual rate in more than a decade and notably above the ecb’s new symmetric target of 2% to be attained over the medium term.!” the recent rise in inflation, which was at least partly expected, has intensified the debate about the most likely future evolution of price pressures — in the euro area and elsewhere. it stands in sharp contrast to the developments observed over the past decade whe… |
| Christine Lagarde: New challenges in a changing world | Period_3 | 2023-01-24 | 0.090 | new challenges in a changing world speech by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, at the deutsche börse annual reception in eschborn eschborn, 23 january 2023 introduction it is a pleasure to speak with you here in eschborn, marking the start of the new year. a new beginning often brings with it new challenges, but it also presents us with plenty of opportunities. and today i would like to touch on both. looking at today’s global economy, i am reminded of the playwright and poet bertolt brecht, who once observed: “because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are.” the global economy finds itself at a crucial turning point. last year, we began to see the emergence of a “new global map” of economic relationships – one in which geopolitics is increasingly infl… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.087 | monetary policy in a new environment speech by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, at the european banking congress frankfurt, 18 november 2022 it is a pleasure to speak to you this morning. when the former british prime minister harold macmillan was asked what the greatest challenge was for a statesman, he is said to have replied: “events, dear boy, events”. and indeed, as policymakers, we are constantly faced by unpredictable events and shocks. but what makes the situation we face today especially challenging is that we are not only facing a sequence of ill-fated events – the pandemic, the energy crisis, russia’s unjustifiable invasion of ukraine and high inflation – but that as a result, the environment around us is also changing. some of the major trends that characterised the … |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.075 | challenges for monetary policy remarks by luis de guindos, vice-president of the ecb, at the frankfurt euro finance summit frankfurt am main, 4 july 2022 having participated in the previous two summits, it is a great pleasure to speak with you again this year. in my remarks today, i will first discuss the economic outlook for the euro area. i will then turn to the ecb’s recent monetary policy decisions and look at why an even transmission of our monetary policy is vital to the achievement of our price stability mandate. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.073 | reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy welcome address by isabel schnabel, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the seventh ecb annual research conference frankfurt, 12 september 2022 introduction i would like to welcome you all very warmly to the seventh ecb annual research conference. after two years of holding this conference virtually, we are very happy to see many of you in person – thank you so much for coming to frankfurt. an equally warm welcome to those of you who can only join us online. thanks to luc and his team, we have an exciting programme with high-quality research papers on important topics. one set of presentations will help us to better understand business cycle dynamics and the effects of monetary policy. the focus will be … |
The most representative speeches:
5.49 Topic 49: medium; medium term; stability; price stability; short
5.49.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | medium | 1 | 0.0994478 | orient | 1 | 0.9992991 |
| 49 | medium term | 2 | 0.0877563 | term orientation | 2 | 0.9991234 |
| 49 | stability | 3 | 0.0762962 | medium term orientation | 3 | 0.9990792 |
| 49 | price stability | 4 | 0.0531446 | orientation | 4 | 0.9990363 |
| 49 | short | 5 | 0.0341602 | stability orient | 5 | 0.9987727 |
| 49 | orient | 6 | 0.0290669 | orient monetary | 6 | 0.9982467 |
| 49 | orientation | 7 | 0.0266360 | orient monetary policy | 7 | 0.9978962 |
| 49 | horizon | 8 | 0.0195747 | term price | 8 | 0.9978091 |
| 49 | time | 9 | 0.0188802 | stability orient monetary | 9 | 0.9976332 |
| 49 | term orientation | 10 | 0.0184171 | medium term | 10 | 0.9974537 |
| 49 | risk | 11 | 0.0180698 | medium | 11 | 0.9971004 |
| 49 | medium term orientation | 12 | 0.0180698 | medium term price | 12 | 0.9969327 |
| 49 | stability orient | 13 | 0.0178383 | tune | 13 | 0.9969314 |
| 49 | imply | 14 | 0.0127450 | term price stability | 14 | 0.9966261 |
| 49 | focus | 15 | 0.0117031 | fine | 15 | 0.9960565 |
5.49.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the European economy and the ECB’s monetary policy concept | Period_1 | 2004-07-20 | 0.336 | the medium-term orientation of monetary policy ever since the announcement of its strategy in 1998 the ecb has made it clear that price stability is to be maintained over the medium term. i emphasised before that it is crucial in monetary policy to look through” short-term volatility in prices, which is typically outside the control of central banks. the medium-term orientation of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy clarifies that the time horizon over which price stability has to be re-established needs to be tailored to the prevailing circumstances in the economy. this horizon would depend on factors such as whether the shocks are temporary or permanent, on whether they emerged on the supply or the demand side, on whether the origin of the shocks is domestic or external or on whether t… |
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.330 | the medium-term orientation of monetary policy another very important aspect of our monetary policy, which was also emphasised at the start of stage three of emu, is that it aims to maintain price stability over the medium term. the medium- term orientation clarifies that there is no fixed time horizon over which price stability has to be re-established. the medium-term orientation embodies several important general principles of the strategy. first, the explicit acknowledgement that, given the long and uncertain lags in the transmission of monetary impulses, central banks cannot steer short-term price developments with high precision. second, it also reflects the idea that monetary policy should react differently to different forms of economic shocks. notably, supply-side shocks, for e… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the ECB - sustainable non inflationary growth and financial stability | Period_1 | 2004-05-18 | 0.249 | the medium-term orientation of the ecb’s monetary policy the ecb’s monetary policy strategy also makes clear that price stability is to be maintained over the medium term. this is a crucial element of our policy. first and foremost, it means that the central bank eschews over-ambitious attempts to steer price developments over short horizons and with a high degree of precision. second, the medium-term orientation gives the ecb the possibility to respond in the most appropriate manner to different economic shocks, according to their origin, size and nature. in particular, the time horizon over which price stability has to be re-established would depend on whether the shocks are temporary or permanent, whether they emerged on the supply or the demand side, on their domestic or external or… |
| Jürgen Stark: Monetary policy and the euro | Period_1 | 2008-04-16 | 0.230 | definition of price stability the ecb defines its price stability objective as a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp) for the euro area of below, but close to 2% over the medium term. by referring to an increase in the hicp of below but close to 2%, the ecb has made it clear that hicp inflation of 2% or above, but also very low or negative rates of inflation are not consistent with its price stability objective. therefore, we aim at a low positive inflation rate in order to mitigate the detrimental effects of inflation on the euro area economies while at the same time maintaining a sufficient safety margin against potential risks of deflation. another fundamental aspect of our definition of price stability is its medium-term horizon, which means that w… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Key issues for monetary policy - an ECB view | Period_1 | 2004-10-13 | 0.223 | medium-term orientation second, the ecb has adopted a medium-term orientation, thereby preserving monetary policy from short-termism. constantly faced with economic news, a central bank risks being swamped by the latest indicator and by its conjectures concerning markets’ likely reaction to the latest indicator. this can gradually steer monetary policy away from its foremost role of providing a firm medium-term anchor for the economy. instrumental in this steady-hand framework is our notion that the appropriate horizon for monetary policy is the “medium term”. in this respect, the time horizon over which price stability has to be re-established needs to be tailored to the circumstances prevailing in the economy. sometimes, notably if there is a suspicion that asset prices are moving up … |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.179 | the second issue is the horizon over which price stability should be achieved, which is captured by the ecb’s “medium term” orientation. this forward-looking orientation reflects traditional and well- established principles of prudent monetary policy, which is consistent with the notion that monetary policy works with a lag and can influence inflation over the medium term rather than the near term. |
| Vítor Constâncio: “We are certainly not almighty”- interview with Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-09-16 | 0.172 | but the feeling is that the ecb is more and more deviating from the stability-oriented monetary policy of the bundesbank in its former days. this feeling even increases if bundesbank president jens weidmann is opposing ecb decisions. i find it difficult to say that the ecb is deviating from a stability-oriented policy when inflation rates are at 0.3%. you could say so if inflation was at 3% or 4%. our primary mandate is price stability and we will not embark in policies that may create dangers to the upside in this regard. |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.155 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Globalisation and monetary policy - from virtue to vice? | Period_2 | 2011-11-30 | 0.136 | complacency and insufficient medium-term orientation of monetary policy the first was complacency. with inflation seemingly under control following “the great moderation” of the 1990s amid intensified globalisation, many observers thought that monetary policy had greater degrees of freedom to devote to short-term demand management. proponents of this view referred to this as “fine-tuning”19, whose theoretical counterpart was a form of “flexible inflation targeting” with an added emphasis on output stabilisation beyond inflation stabilisation. the pre-crisis focus on the output gap was in many ways paradoxical insofar as consensus macroeconomics had run full circle back to the intellectual climate of the 1970s, where policymakers’ exaggerated real time measures of economic slack was at t… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.133 | important pre-condition. indeed, the governing council’s specification of the ecb’s primary objective has two characteristic features, which complement its monetary pillar. first, it is a range of values, not a point target. second, it is based on a medium-term orientation. this has two implications. first, there is some flexibility as to where inflation could be within the range at any point in time. in 2003 the governing council announced that within the range of inflation rates consistent with price stability, a rate “close to 2%” should be the aim of policy in the medium term. but there is scope for inflation to vary within the range along the way to convergence with the medium-term policy aim, and many path configurations are possible. second, the medium term itself is not a pre-se… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.154 | the 2021 strategy review lays the foundations for monetary policy decisions in the coming years. there is a clear anchor for monetary policy: we will set monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at two per cent over the medium term. the medium-term orientation allows for inevitable short-term deviations of inflation from the target, as well as lags and uncertainty in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy and to inflation. the flexibility of the medium-term orientation takes into account that the appropriate monetary policy response to a deviation of inflation from the target is context-specific and depends on the origin, magnitude and persistence of the deviation. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.117 | an important element in the strategy review was to re-confirm the medium-term orientation of the ecb’s monetary policy. in line with the treaty mandate and without prejudice to price stability, the medium-term orientation allows for inevitable short-term deviations of inflation from the target, as well as lags and uncertainty in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy and to inflation. it also provides room for monetary policy to take into account considerations such as balanced economic growth, full employment and financial stability. under many scenarios, these are mutually consistent objectives. in particular, so long as longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the target level, inflation will be at the target level if economic activity and employment are at thei… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.107 | expected to largely fade out over the course of next year. overreacting to such short-term volatility would be harmful and risk jeopardising the ongoing economic recovery, which is why the ecb’s monetary policy remains focused on fulfilling its medium-term price stability mandate. nonetheless, significant uncertainty remains as to how persistent some of the current price pressures will prove to be. the ecb therefore continues to carefully monitor inflationary developments in the euro area, with a particular focus on second-round effects, to determine whether the headwinds that have exerted downward pressure on inflation for much of the past decade are still present, or whether they may reverse in the aftermath of the pandemic. the cyclical and specific pandemic factors will increasingly… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.090 | conclusion let me conclude. the ecb is currently dealing with the economic effects of an unprecedented sequence of shocks generated abroad. like other major central banks, we are faced with the task of normalising monetary policy at a point in time that is anything but normal. in this difficult situation we will guarantee medium-term price stability, just like we protected the euro area economy from deflation during the pandemic. normalisation does not mean removing stimulus outright. rather, it is a process of gradually reducing that stimulus in a way that firmly anchors the inflation path at 2% over the medium term. this process has already got under way in the euro area. getting normalisation right is no easy task, as the euro area economy must contend with an outlook that is marked … |
| Christine Lagarde: Introductory statement - European Parliament plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report | Period_3 | 2022-02-17 | 0.087 | consider influential factors relevant for our medium-term horizon. third, we must be clear about our actions. our audience should be able to understand what we are trying to achieve with our measures, as well as why they are effective, efficient and remain proportionate to our aim. clearly communicating these three a’s to different audiences often means being more simple and straightforward. but being more simple does not mean being simplistic. it means being more inclusive when we talk. following on from our strategy review, we are using clearer, more narrative-driven language, together with visuals people can relate to. finally, in all our communication, we need to be open about what we can and cannot do as a central bank. for example, our monetary policy cannot fill pipelines with ga… |
The most representative speeches:
5.50 Topic 50: response; action; policy response; policy action; reaction
5.50.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | response | 1 | 0.1120261 | policy response | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 50 | action | 2 | 0.0839447 | response | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 50 | policy response | 3 | 0.0440311 | policy action | 3 | 0.9995619 |
| 50 | policy action | 4 | 0.0292016 | action | 4 | 0.9991234 |
| 50 | reaction | 5 | 0.0280972 | monetary policy response | 5 | 0.9989479 |
| 50 | shock | 6 | 0.0268352 | reaction | 6 | 0.9987732 |
| 50 | economy | 7 | 0.0255731 | reaction function | 7 | 0.9981595 |
| 50 | require | 8 | 0.0254153 | monetary policy action | 8 | 0.9979832 |
| 50 | aim | 9 | 0.0216290 | respond | 9 | 0.9978095 |
| 50 | function | 10 | 0.0202092 | react | 10 | 0.9974592 |
| 50 | respond | 11 | 0.0191049 | policy reaction | 11 | 0.9972806 |
| 50 | monetary policy response | 12 | 0.0176850 | contingency | 12 | 0.9971939 |
| 50 | commitment | 13 | 0.0167384 | restore | 13 | 0.9971086 |
| 50 | react | 14 | 0.0146876 | require | 14 | 0.9970181 |
| 50 | effective | 15 | 0.0138987 | warrant | 15 | 0.9967584 |
5.50.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Central banks and the public - the importance of communication | Period_1 | 2008-11-21 | 0.123 | communication about actions and prospects the adoption of a clear and deliberate monetary policy strategy has added two further dimensions to communication: the announcement and explanation of monetary policy decisions when these are made, and the regular exposition of the central bank’s assessment of the current economic situation and its most likely evolution. in the absence of frequent disclosures about policy and the economic situation, market participants may not be in a position to attribute fluctuations in inflation either to exogenous disturbances outside the control of the central bank or to changes in policy intentions. adverse adjustments in expectations could lead to an increase in inflation today and to a slower and more painful reversal later in the process. 9 a central ba… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.115 | the advantages of a rule-like behaviour at first thought, a “discretionary” response to shocks might seem exactly what one would expect of a professional central banker. after all, each economic contingency is a unique combination of circumstances that, in its own way, is unprecedented, and will probably never repeat itself again in that precise form. so, each new contingency would seem to command a different, tailor-made response on the part of monetary authorities. there is some grain of truth to this. but decades of reflections on the role of expectations in macroeconomics have taught us that monetary policy is not a sequence of isolated policy actions. when forming their expectations, agents seek to capture the general pattern of monetary policies, and it is that pattern that matter… |
| Lucas Papademos: Policy-making in EMU - strategies, rules and discretion | Period_1 | 2004-04-23 | 0.101 | inflation forecasts or projections, while useful and indeed indispensable ingredients of a monetary policy framework, cannot be the only input in decision-making. the same inflation forecast figures can be associated with quite different states of the economy, reflecting the effects of different factors and shocks, and thus potentially requiring different policy responses on the part of the central bank. for this reason too, monetary authorities carefully take into account the specific determinants of the economic situation and outlook as well as the nature and size of the threats to price stability. such an analysis may require adapting, to a certain extent, the appropriate monetary policy horizon for restoring price stability in response to the nature and magnitude of shocks. in this … |
| Mr. Duisenberg elucidates the European System of Central Banks’ stability-oriented monetary policy strategy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 10 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-11-20 | 0.087 | relying on a single forecast that attempts to summarise all the information available from a wide range of indicators would be misguided. the governing council will not wish to be presented with a single number to which it will have to react mechanistically, if at all. in contrast, the governing council will want to know the economic reasons behind the projected risks to price stability. the appropriate monetary policy response to a threat to price stability will depend on the nature of the threat. the governing council can only understand the nature of the risk if it is presented with a full set of data. from these data, it can attempt - with the help of various staff analyses - to identify the nature of the disturbance to price stability. having identified the threat, an appropriate p… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Economic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic (why) are they different? | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.087 | years the euro area has been worse hit by “supply shocks” than the united states. a supply shock tends to have an effect on growth with the opposite sign to that of inflation. one example is the decline in total factor productivity (tfp) in the early part of this decade which brought upward pressure to bear on inflation at a time when economic activity was slowing down, as occurred following the bursting of the dot.com bubble. indeed, available evidence seems to suggest that the exacerbation of negative supply shocks is a recurring feature of economic slowdown phases in the euro area. as a result of that phenomenon, inflation in the euro area tends to react to an economic slowdown less rapidly than it does in the united states. this difference may explain why, especially in cyclical slo… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.133 | (year-on-year percentage change) ecb and eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. the policy response to the continued shortfall of inflation from our aim also reflects our commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim, which we emphasised in the statement following the governing council’s july meeting. this was essentially a clarification of our reaction function: our determination to act when inflation falls short of our medium-term inflation aim is just as strong as our determination to act when inflation exceeds that aim. stating clearly our commitment to symmetry is important, since the formulation of our aim – “below, but close to, 2 percent” – risks being misunderstood, particularly in an environment of falling inflation expectations. we also stressed in july that both realised … |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.107 | while such “management by expectations” worked relatively well in normal times, the crisis inevitably made our decision-making process more complicated and our policies more difficult to understand. for example, the use of unconventional measures implied a wider range of possible monetary policy responses to a given shock. to continue to steer expectations in this environment, the ecb had to be more explicit in its communication. this involved reaffirming our mandate and explaining its medium-turn orientation and euro area perspective. furthermore, the governing council will be equally active in guarding against inflation and deflation. and, faced with the effective lower bound and different contingencies, we had to explain our future policy intentions and clarify our more complex react… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in the euro area | Period_2 | 2018-03-19 | 0.106 | we have proven in the past that our forward guidance is credible. this has been the case both for our guidance on rates and on our reaction function, notably when we laid out the contingencies that would justify launching an asset purchase programme in response to a too- prolonged period of low inflation.9 conclusion to conclude, we currently see inflation converging towards our aim over the medium term, and we are more confident than in the past this convergence will come to pass. but we still need to see further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction. so monetary policy will remain patient, persistent and prudent. |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in a prolonged period of low inflation | Period_2 | 2014-05-26 | 0.104 | the physiology of disinflation so to sum up: falling energy and food prices, coupled with the effects of relative price adjustment in stressed countries, explain almost fully the disinflation we have seen in the euro area. we also see that disinflation produces counterveiling forces, which may in time cause it to self-correct. to what extent should monetary policy therefore react to these developments? the answer relates to the physiology of inflation: whether or not these factors are likely to persist into the medium-term and therefore enter the horizon of monetary policy. temporary movements in the exchange rate or relative price adjustments would not normally warrant a monetary policy response. given the lag in monetary policy transmission, a monetary impulse would hit the economy ju… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.102 | with our forward guidance, we aim to give guidance on the expected level of future interest rates, and to remove uncertainty about that level by strengthening communication on our reaction function. we have also further simplified our reaction function by laying out some contingencies that would warrant a monetary policy reaction. these are, first, an unwarranted tightening of monetary policy stance (from developments in short-term money markets, global bond markets or foreign exchange markets) that could be tackled through more conventional measures. second, a further impairment in the transmission of our stance, in particular via the bank lending channel, for which a targeted ltro or an abs purchase programme might be the right response. third, a worsening of the medium-term outlook f… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.102 | stronger anchor for inflation expectations, a strategic commitment to simplifying the communication of monetary policy also makes it easier for the ecb to be held accountable and for it to build trust among the general public. regarding the symmetry of the inflation target, the recognition that deviations from the target in either direction are equally undesirable implies that a risk-management approach to the calibration of monetary policy should balance equally the risks of inflation being too high and too low. at the same time, the symmetry of the target does not necessarily imply symmetry in policy responses to these risks, in view of the constraints imposed by the effective lower bound in reacting to below-target inflation. |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.099 | patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery speech by fabio panetta, member of the executive board of the ecb, at sciences po the long and rocky road out of the pandemic is creating challenges for monetary policy. following years of too-low inflation and policy oriented at addressing deflationary risks, we are now in an environment of two-way inflation risks and heightened short-term volatility (chart 1). markets are indicating increasing uncertainty about the inflation outlook, and investors’ expectations of lift-off dates have become more dispersed. in this environment, central banks must clarify their reaction function, so that market expectations remain aligned with their policy intentions. this, in turn, requires a clear framework for thinking about inflation developments and wha… |
| Christine Lagarde: Commitment and persistence - monetary policy in the economic recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.094 | first, we focus on the medium term, not on current inflation numbers. this is because, for one, monetary policy affects the economy with a lag. so, when inflation pressure is expected to fade — as is the case today — it does not make sense to react by tightening policy. the tightening would not affect the economy until after the shock has already passed. second, our strategy tailors our monetary policy response to the type of shock we are facing. |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.088 | circumstances and challenges that we face in the pursuit of price stability. making the strategy concrete let me explain how this can be envisaged in practice with an analogy in construction that may speak more to the minds of a general audience than concepts from the world of monetary theorists and lawyers. very much like price stability ensures a solid foundation to support a well- functioning economy, in construction concrete is the bedrock of any structure: homes, office buildings, bridges, wind and solar power stations, and so on. this bedrock is made up of four simple ingredients: cement, gravel, sand and water. every ingredient plays its part. cement is the key bonding agent that holds the concrete together. it is the gravel and sand that give it its strength and structural integ… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.081 | lending rate to non-financial corporations and the intermediation wedge ecb (mir statistics) and bloomberg. notes: the intermediation wedge is the distance from the base rate (three-year ois) to the realised lending rate, as measured by the observed lending rate for non-financial corporations. the latest observations are for january 2022. the impact of the pandemic monetary policy measures to assess the contribution of monetary policy to countering the pandemic shock, a natural point of comparison is the calculation of the adverse impact that would have materialised in the absence of the monetary policy response. the alternative path the economy would have taken without responsive monetary policy can be calculated by constructing counterfactual financial conditions and then feeding thes… |
The most representative speeches:
5.51 Topic 51: bond; market; yield; government; sovereign
5.51.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | bond | 1 | 0.1330125 | bond | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 51 | market | 2 | 0.0669151 | government bond | 2 | 0.9995617 |
| 51 | yield | 3 | 0.0525695 | bond yield | 3 | 0.9992988 |
| 51 | government | 4 | 0.0372853 | bond market | 4 | 0.9991236 |
| 51 | sovereign | 5 | 0.0321906 | corporate bond | 5 | 0.9989484 |
| 51 | government bond | 6 | 0.0283025 | sovereign bond | 6 | 0.9983786 |
| 51 | corporate | 7 | 0.0214649 | yield | 7 | 0.9979822 |
| 51 | bond yield | 8 | 0.0210627 | holding | 8 | 0.9976783 |
| 51 | bond market | 9 | 0.0191856 | sovereign | 9 | 0.9976317 |
| 51 | corporate bond | 10 | 0.0155657 | corporate | 10 | 0.9975449 |
| 51 | basis | 11 | 0.0148954 | sovereign yield | 11 | 0.9973692 |
| 51 | issue | 12 | 0.0146272 | bond issue | 12 | 0.9965343 |
| 51 | spread | 13 | 0.0139569 | spread | 13 | 0.9964936 |
| 51 | holding | 14 | 0.0135546 | bond purchase | 14 | 0.9961001 |
| 51 | sovereign bond | 15 | 0.0135546 | government bond yield | 15 | 0.9960070 |
5.51.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The euro in 2000 - principal features of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 29 Jun 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-07-14 | 0.174 | the euro and the financial markets the creation of the euro has accelerated the development and integration of the capital markets in europe, which, in recent years, have also been fostered by financial liberalisation and technological innovation. this also contributes to high growth, as more efficient financial markets help in allocating funds to their best use. in effect, the single currency has removed the exchange risk between the countries of the euro area. it is facilitating the standardisation of debt instruments and their management on a larger scale. this integrative effect of the euro has been most evident in the money market, by virtue of, in particular, the establishment of target, the large-value payment system. this integration has shown itself in, for example, the rapid a… |
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.131 | support for the banking sector government support for the banking sector was necessary; it has safeguarded the stability of the financial system. the price of this success, however, is that governments have incurred substantial fiscal costs and credit risks that are ultimately borne by taxpayers. following the adoption of a concerted european action plan on 12 october 2008, euro area governments announced national measures to support the banking sector. these measures consist of government guarantees for interbank lending, recapitalisation of financial institutions in difficulty, increase the coverage of retail deposit insurance and asset relief schemes. overall, euro area governments committed about 23% of euro area gdp to financial sector support measures. for the euro area, the vario… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Further integrating euro area economies ¿ some reflections | Period_1 | 2006-07-14 | 0.114 | 5 a more sophisticated analysis based on an international portfolio choice model reaches the same conclusion (see de santis and gérard, 2006, “financial integration, international portfolio choice and the european monetary union”, ecb working paper series, n. 626.). emu has enhanced regional financial integration in the euro area in both the equity and bond markets. there is evidence of active trading among euro area member states, with euro area investors assigning a higher weight to portfolio investment in euro area countries. over the period 1997-2001, the average increase in weights – on top of the world average portfolio weight increase in euro area assets – amounts to 12.7 percentage points for equity holdings and 22.4 percentage points for bond and note holdings. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European financial integration and the management of inflation expectations by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2005-04-21 | 0.090 | action by providing central banking services that foster european financial integration. we are currently building target2, which is due to go live in 2007 and which will replace the current decentralised system with a single technical platform. with the functionalities that will be introduced in target2, we also expect it to be one of the most sophisticated payment systems in the world. target2 will also further improve financial integration. it will increase cost effectiveness. it will allow for the provision of a harmonised level of services across europe, supported by the implementation of a single price structure for domestic and cross-border payments. and finally, it will offer new functionalities enabling banks to better integrate their euro liquidity management. moreover, to als… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Two successes of the euro - the single monetary policy and European financial integration | Period_1 | 2006-05-19 | 0.089 | many factors have contributed in the recent past to enhancing financial integration in europe. first, public action at the community level aims to remove residual legislative and regulatory obstacles as well as to allow competitive forces to deploy their effects in full. second, the introduction of the euro has removed a major hindrance to financial integration, notably foreign exchange risk. third, market participants have to a certain extent exploited the new environment by increasing their cross-border activities. the ensuing question is how can the euro’s contribution and performance in this respect be measured? i suggest two measures of performance. the first and most obvious way of measuring performance is to look at the “hard facts”. as discussions on this topic are often of a qu… |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.301 | 02/03/2021 the compass of monetary policy: favourable financing conditions bank loans to firms and households (chart 4 and chart 5). as such, sovereign yields are a key element in determining general financing conditions in all sectors and jurisdictions across the euro area. bank and sovereign bond yields (daily; percentages per annum; x-axis: sovereign yields; y-axis: bank bond yields) markit iboxx, ecb and ecb calculations. notes: the chart reports the correlation between the (level of) bank bond yields and sovereign yields. each dot corresponds to a daily recording of the average yield for senior unsecured bonds (ig) issued by banks with a given maturity in a given country and the sovereign yields with the same maturity for the same day in the same country. the latest observation is … |
| Mario Draghi: President’s address at the 16th ECB and its Watchers Conference | Period_2 | 2015-03-13 | 0.281 | believe that as our balance sheet grows more substantially under the expanded asset purchase programme, it will support a rebound of these measures. second, our policy announcement was largely anticipated. on 1 january 2015, 60% of surveyed experts attached a 65% or higher probability that we would announce a public sector securities purchase programme at our january meeting. and, according to various surveys, expectations were already quite high in autumn last year. these anticipation effects show up in the financial data. according to estimates, the impact of the asset purchase programme has accounted for most of the fall in euro area long-term sovereign yields since august last year. the same applies for movements in other financial markets metrics, such as the fall in long-term corp… |
| Mario Draghi: President’s address at the 16th ECB and its Watchers Conference | Period_2 | 2015-03-13 | 0.248 | believe that as our balance sheet grows more substantially under the expanded asset purchase programme, it will support a rebound of these measures. second, our policy announcement was largely anticipated. on 1 january 2015, 60% of surveyed experts attached a 65% or higher probability that we would announce a public sector securities purchase programme at our january meeting. and, according to various surveys, expectations were already quite high in autumn last year. these anticipation effects show up in the financial data. according to estimates, the impact of the asset purchase programme has accounted for most of the fall in euro area long-term sovereign yields since august last year. the same applies for movements in other financial markets metrics, such as the fall in long-term corp… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: How innovative should central banks be? | Period_2 | 2014-12-01 | 0.212 | conditions for borrowers in the real economy. the same logic can also be applied to the selective purchase programmes for covered bonds and asset-backed securities. the eurosystem is currently faced with 18, soon to be 19, issuers of government securities. should we not take into account during a broad purchase programme of securities the fact that government securities in the euro area are not without credit risk? there are very few shared competencies in fiscal policy. as long as this is the case, the ecb’s purchase of government securities is inevitably linked to a serious incentive problem. after all, the required cost-benefit considerations should also take into account the fact that other central banks bought government securities in a different economic environment with considera… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy - past, present and future | Period_2 | 2015-11-25 | 0.192 | effectiveness of asset purchases there are many reasons why asset purchases should have a strong impact on activity and inflation. purchases compress yields and reduce the cost of financing in the economy through direct pass-through and portfolio rebalancing effects. for banks they make lending to the real economy more attractive than purchasing government bonds. higher financial and real estate asset prices can also increase demand via wealth effects and lower the cost of equity for firms. when we launched the app, however, it was in an environment where the strength of these conventional transmission channels was questionable – at least in the eyes of some observers. one concern was that the impact of interventions might be meagre given that yields were already very low at the start o… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.361 | corporate bonds the corporate bond market plays an important role in the financing of larger non-financial firms in the euro area. similar to sovereign bonds, increases in risk-free rates have been well transmitted to the corporate bond market. aggregate investment-grade corporate bond spreads over risk-free rates increased throughout the year from 50 to 100 basis points, with high-yield corporate bond spreads having increased from 310 to 460 basis points (chart 14). |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.280 | our main steering tool in this process is the tilting parameter – that is, the weight we put on the climate score in our benchmark allocation for new purchases. however, the tilting parameter lost part of its punch when we decided to stop net asset purchases (slide 5). the forthcoming reduction in reinvestments will further significantly constrain the ability of a flow-based approach to decarbonise our corporate bond portfolio at a pace that is consistent with our climate ambitions.[21] the decarbonisation of our corporate bond portfolio depends not only on our tilting parameter but also considerably on the rate at which the firms in our portfolio decarbonise their businesses.[22] for example, assuming full reinvestment, we would achieve only half of the total decarbonisation of our cor… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.280 | greening our public sector bond holdings the second question is how to put our public sector bond holdings, which currently account for around half of our balance sheet, on a paris-aligned path. aligning our large public sector bond holdings with the objectives of the paris agreement is proving challenging for a variety of reasons. first, purchases of sovereign bonds are guided by the capital key, which limits the scope for tilting strategies based on countries’ carbon intensities. second, there is not yet a reliable framework in place to assess the extent to which sovereign bond portfolios are aligned with the paris agreement. and, finally, the amount of green sovereign bonds is still limited, in particular when compared with the size of our current bond portfolio. finding options for … |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.255 | the aim is to gradually decarbonise our corporate bond holdings, on a path aligned with the goals of the paris agreement. in practice, this involves measuring the climate performance of each eligible issuer based on its greenhouse gas emissions, carbon reduction targets and climate-related disclosures. ultimately, this will result in the purchase of more bonds issued by companies with a good climate performance and fewer bonds from those with a poor climate performance. this tilting changes the composition of the monetary policy portfolio, but the overall purchase volume is still determined solely by monetary policy considerations – in line with our primary mandate. this process is already under way: as of 1 october we have started to tilt our reinvestment purchases towards issuers with… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.211 | greening the stock of corporate bond holdings first, the ongoing decline in our balance sheet will visibly diminish the effect of some of our actions going forward. for example, for our corporate bond portfolio we are following a flow-based tilting approach where we adjust our reinvestments of corporate bonds based on a climate score that reflects issuers’ carbon intensity, their decarbonisation plans and the quality of their climate-related disclosures. |
The most representative speeches:
5.52 Topic 52: raise; meet; normalisation; basis; interest
5.52.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | raise | 1 | 0.0422458 | normalisation | 1 | 0.9991236 |
| 52 | meet | 2 | 0.0303552 | hike | 2 | 0.9987723 |
| 52 | normalisation | 3 | 0.0295352 | policy normalisation | 3 | 0.9985962 |
| 52 | basis | 4 | 0.0206514 | raise interest rate | 4 | 0.9980710 |
| 52 | interest | 5 | 0.0195580 | raise | 5 | 0.9975408 |
| 52 | step | 6 | 0.0191480 | rate hike | 6 | 0.9972344 |
| 52 | datum | 7 | 0.0165512 | raise interest | 7 | 0.9969758 |
| 52 | adjust | 8 | 0.0153211 | term target | 8 | 0.9967069 |
| 52 | interest rate | 9 | 0.0153211 | medium term target | 9 | 0.9964005 |
| 52 | condition | 10 | 0.0135444 | tpi | 10 | 0.9961812 |
| 52 | return | 11 | 0.0131343 | step | 11 | 0.9959599 |
| 52 | target | 12 | 0.0129977 | meet | 12 | 0.9954249 |
| 52 | decision | 13 | 0.0127243 | datum dependent | 13 | 0.9952638 |
| 52 | hike | 14 | 0.0119043 | monetary policy normalisation | 14 | 0.9950801 |
| 52 | september | 15 | 0.0112209 | raise rate | 15 | 0.9945629 |
5.52.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.064 | ladies and gentlemen, since 1 january 1999, the day on which it officially became the monetary authority of the euro area, the ecb has changed its policy rate, the rate on its main refinancing operations, 18 times. over the same period, the federal reserve system has made 35 changes. the easing cycle that started on both sides of the atlantic – and of the channel – in 2001 saw a cumulative reduction in the policy rate of 275 basis points in the euro area, accomplished in a sequence of seven moves. the ecb started to reverse that cycle in december last year and has since changed its policy in a sequence of three steps. in the united states, the same easing phase saw 13 reductions, with a total loosening of 550 basis points, and was first reversed in june 2004. since then, the federal res… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The ECB’s response to the crisis | Period_1 | 2011-05-30 | 0.056 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.052 | concluding remarks i am sometimes asked the following “you are in the process of increasing rates. is your judgement that your rates today are significantly lower than they should be? what then is the level of the “neutral rate” that you would judge it appropriate to reach (as rapidly as possible)?” my response to such questions would be the following. first, we are not in a position that we would judge “abnormal”, in the sense that we would have to increase as rapidly as possible our interest rates up to the “normal” level. we are in a process of progressively withdrawing the present degree of monetary accommodation commensurate with the risks to price stability that we perceive, associated in particular with the present development of the economic recovery. to the extent that we never… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The monetary policy of the ECB during the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-06-08 | 0.050 | into the long-term inflation expectations, which could trigger second-round effects on wages and prices. it is against this background that the governing council decided in april to raise interest rates. i stressed in reporting this decision it had been taken unanimously. the action of the governing council is motivated by a common goal. that decision in april confirmed that the separation principle is strictly applied and that our non-conventional measures do not restrict in any way our ability to toughen the monetary policy stance when facing inflationary pressures. thus, when the governing council decided in march and april that it was time to raise interest rates, in parallel, at the same time, it decided to keep, in the second quarter, the provision of unlimited fixed-rate liquidit… |
| Mr. Duisenberg elucidates the European System of Central Banks’ stability-oriented monetary policy strategy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 10 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-11-20 | 0.050 | clearly, the governing council could have decided to announce some form of inflation forecast and justify policy decisions by reference to it. interest rate increases or decreases could then be explained on the basis that the inflation forecast pointed to threats to price stability. however, this presentation of monetary strategy to the public is likely to involve a circular argument. for example, interest rate increases would be justified on the basis that the inflation forecast pointed to an inflation rate higher than that consistent with price stability. however, critical observers might soon argue that the inflation forecast was above the target precisely because there was a perceived need to raise interest rates. simply publishing a forecast does not explain why interest rates need… |
| Luis de Guindos: Interview with Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2019-11-12 | 0.100 | when president draghi said the famous words “whatever it takes” in 2012… …when he promised in the summer of 2012 to do whatever it takes, within the limits of the ecb’s mandate, to preserve the euro… …the message was clear: the ecb stands ready to safeguard the integrity of the euro. monetary policy is not an isolated tool and it does not operate in a political vacuum, separate from the rest of the world. it interacts with fiscal policy and also with structural policies. we don’t live in an ivory tower. but at the same time monetary policy is not almighty. take the trade dispute or brexit, which have economic consequences. the ecb can make liquidity available, which helps, but it doesn’t solve the problems. in his eight years as ecb president mario draghi made monetary policy ever more … |
| Yves Mersch: Monetary policy in the euro area - scope, principles and limits | Period_2 | 2016-06-24 | 0.080 | impact. in other words, the app, coupled with our other credit easing measures, has reduced distortions caused by market fragmentation in the euro area. still, we know that the longer unconventional policy lasts, the greater the risk of distortions appearing and diminishing its effectiveness over time. the principle of proportionality also implies that we should only use such measures for as short a time as is necessary to fulfil our mandate. that is why, when the economy improves and inflation returns to our objective, we will have to reassess, adjust and ultimately phase out our purchase programmes and other non-standard measures. but the surest way to reach that point is to stay true to the course we are on now. if we were to change speed or direction too soon, it would only set back… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-03-04 | 0.071 | five years of monetary policy – the ecb has delivered in the last five years, the ecb has continued to take the necessary measures with a view to maintaining price stability in the euro area. let me turn back to the first hearing of this parliament’s term which took place with my predecessor in september 2009. at the time, the economy was just bottoming out in the aftermath of the great contraction which had ensued after lehman’s failure. we were witnessing negative inflation rates. in this environment, the outlook was seen to be broadly in line with price stability. inflation was projected to increase toward levels close to 2%. the key ecb interest rates were kept on hold at the very low level to which they had been brought in several stages since the autumn of the preceding year. some… |
| Philip R Lane: Q&A with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2019-10-01 | 0.068 | concerned, in the most recent statements and what you’ve just said, has the ecb gone as far as it can go on the spectrum between encouraging expansionary fiscal policy and explicitly underwriting it, if you like – which people would be very nervous about, potentially? legally, do you think you could go any further in terms of specificity? lane: i’m not so sure that’s the way i would think about it. i don’t think i’ve been in and had such kind of a conversation in the ecb. it’s basically a reminder of the situation, which is: we have a weak economic outlook; we are responding to that. but the mapping of our measures to the overall economy and to inflation does depend on what’s going to happen and the decisions made in terms of setting fiscal policy now. i don’t think it’s anything like a… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Expansión | Period_2 | 2017-04-04 | 0.063 | after what happened in italy in november last year, is the concept of the “bail-in” still alive and well? the european rules allow flexibility for financial stability reasons under well-defined conditions. without any specific reference to the case of italy, it has to be clear that when the authorities are forced to intervene in this way, they must ensure that the bank undergoes a decisive restructuring process to ensure its viability on a lasting basis. this is crucial for generating the necessary confidence so that we can together move forward with the process of banking union. what is the situation of the spanish banks? i think they have made a tremendous effort and improved their situation significantly. the level of non-performing loans to the private sector has fallen below 7%, wh… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.419 | the flexible reinvestment under pepp, and, more importantly, the unanimous support of the governing council for the transmission protection instrument - led us to decide a larger-than-what-had-been- signalled rate hike on the occasion of this meeting. that is really what, if you want to go behind the curtain of the governing council debates, this is what took place. i would add that in relation to the rate hikes we had the debate, weighted the pros and cons, and at the end of the discussion all members of the governing council rallied to the consensus of 50 basis points. so it’s a strong indication on both accounts in relation to the higher step that we are taking to exit from negative interest rates, and on the other front, which is making sure that our monetary policy stance is transm… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.401 | the governing council, on the occasion of this meeting organised outside of frankfurt, in beautiful amsterdam – thanks to the national central bank of the netherlands – focussed primarily on the challenge of high inflation facing the euro area, and on taking further steps in our normalisation path that we started back in december. so it’s not a question of catching up; it’s a question of using all the tools that we have in order to deliver on our mandate of price stability and in order to bring inflation down to target over the medium term. our analysis was obviously that inflation was undesirably high and that we had to take the steps that i have identified in the monetary policy statement. i would like to add that it’s not just a step; it’s a journey. we started back in december. we g… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-09-26 | 0.332 | the ecb’s monetary policy based on the medium-term inflation outlook, the governing council decided to raise the three key ecb interest rates by 75 basis points, on top of the 50 basis point increase announced in july. as things currently stand, we expect to raise interest rates further over the next several meetings to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. we will regularly re-evaluate our policy path in light of incoming information and the evolving inflation outlook. our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by- meeting approach. as requested by the committee, i will now turn briefly to the issue of fragmentation. since we embarked on our normalisation path in december 2021, we h… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.328 | macroeconomic] projection exercise in september. so on the basis of the data that we receive at the time of those projections, we will determine what step we take on the normalisation path that we are taking in order to deliver on our medium-term 2%. now, that doesn’t mean to say that we are changing the ultimate point of arrival. we are accelerating the exit, and we are following the path of normalisation that we have flagged. how will the ecb decision on the interest rates affect the retail investors in the medium- and long-term? more specifically, i am wondering what kind of effect it will have on a normal private person that is in the market and now wondering what this will do with his or her money? well, we are moving all three interest rates by 50 basis points. so, obviously, the … |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-06-22 | 0.311 | the ecb’s monetary policy the current inflation environment – with figures well above our target – clearly poses a challenge. that’s why at its 8-9 june meeting the governing council expressed its unwavering commitment to bring inflation back to its medium-term target of 2%. with this in mind, and on the basis of the updated assessment i have just outlined, we decided at that meeting to take further steps in normalising our monetary policy. first, we decided to end net asset purchases under our asset purchase programme (app) as of 1 july 2022. second, as the governing council concluded that the conditions underlying our forward guidance have been satisfied, we intend to raise the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points at our july monetary policy meeting. third, looking further ahead,… |
The most representative speeches:
5.53 Topic 53: germany; people; german; draghi; saver
5.53.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | germany | 1 | 0.0426164 | german | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 53 | people | 2 | 0.0365138 | saver | 2 | 0.9996494 |
| 53 | german | 3 | 0.0272469 | germany | 3 | 0.9992986 |
| 53 | draghi | 4 | 0.0235176 | draghi | 4 | 0.9989484 |
| 53 | saver | 5 | 0.0209183 | bundesbank | 5 | 0.9985100 |
| 53 | country | 6 | 0.0197882 | people | 6 | 0.9981574 |
| 53 | good | 7 | 0.0183191 | deutsche | 7 | 0.9975883 |
| 53 | time | 8 | 0.0174150 | pay | 8 | 0.9971949 |
| 53 | return | 9 | 0.0144767 | feel | 9 | 0.9963641 |
| 53 | pay | 10 | 0.0131206 | expansionary monetary policy | 10 | 0.9960016 |
| 53 | mandate | 11 | 0.0118775 | bild | 11 | 0.9958680 |
| 53 | benefit | 12 | 0.0116514 | save | 12 | 0.9951791 |
| 53 | president | 13 | 0.0113124 | worry | 13 | 0.9950926 |
| 53 | bundesbank | 14 | 0.0110864 | saving | 14 | 0.9949996 |
| 53 | saving | 15 | 0.0105213 | expansionary monetary | 15 | 0.9946813 |
5.53.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung | Period_1 | 2011-10-19 | 0.155 | but inflation is not the only thing that the germans fear. they are also scared that they will end up being responsible for the debts of other countries. can you understand that? first of all, i don’t like this talk of “the germans”, “the italians” or “the french”. we live in democracies. our mandate is to ensure price stability. we have delivered price stability, and the markets clearly trust us to continue doing so for the next ten years. the question of debts and who should be responsible for them needs to be put to national governments. first, to the governments who behaved improperly in the past and accumulated excessive levels of debt. and second, to the governments who simply accepted that behaviour on the part of their neighbours. we, the executive board and governing council of… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Bild | Period_1 | 2011-01-17 | 0.145 | mr trichet, in one word, how would you describe the state of the euro today? if you allow me two words: credible and stable. will the euro crisis get worse this year? let me be very clear: this is not a crisis of the euro. rather, what we have is a crisis related to the public finances of a number of euro area countries. all governments have to put their finances in order, and above all those governments and countries which have lived well beyond their means in the past. how are the euro area countries ever to reduce the debt, now totalling €7 trillion? this year, the budget deficit in the euro area will be half as high as that in the united states or japan. virtually all advanced economies face acute fiscal problems. this is something that is often forgotten. that being said, this is n… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Der Spiegel | Period_1 | 2010-05-19 | 0.137 | in refusing to decrease rates, in 2005 in increasing rates against their wishes, and throughout this period in fiercely defending the stability and growth pact including defending it against the german chancellor of the time. just who has been weak over the past few months? it was not the ecb. the governments with their high debts were weak. was i weak myself when i explained to all floor leaders in the german bundestag just why it was important to decide rapidly? was i weak when i informed the heads of state and government in full independence that the situation was grave and that they had to live up to their responsibilities? we took our decision on sunday in full independence. spiegel: thus far, the ecb has been strong and independent because it had repeatedly rejected demands from t… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with L’Espresso | Period_1 | 2006-09-21 | 0.125 | that of pensions is a european problem, due to the ageing population and the resulting pressure on public funds. without further reforms to pension systems, the contribution rates would need to be doubled in some countries, up to as much as 40% of salaries in some cases, in order to keep a balance in the system’s accounts. but what should be done in these cases? in order to tackle the consequences of ageing populations, we need comprehensive reforms. even if there are no unequivocal solutions, some measures are valid for several countries: raising the retirement age, eliminating early retirement incentives, reduction in replacement rates, integrating public pensions within a system which allows future payments to be financed so that the ageing of the population does not create imbalance… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with El País | Period_1 | 2011-05-17 | 0.123 |
|
| Mario Draghi: Interview in Bild | Period_2 | 2016-05-10 | 0.379 | bild: mr draghi, when you became president of the european central bank (ecb) just over four years ago, the germans were scared that, as an italian, you would create too much inflation. now, even an italian is unable to generate sufficient inflation. what is going wrong? mario draghi (laughs): nothing. people in germany can rest assured that their ecb president is doing everything to restore inflation to the right level. our mandate is price stability, which means inflation of just below 2%. bild: in order to achieve that, you have cut interest rates to zero. german savings are melting away like butter in the sun. don’t you care about that? draghi: we are well aware of the situation for savers. and it’s not only in germany that people have to face low interest rates. but interest rates … |
| Mario Draghi: Interview in Handelsblatt | Period_2 | 2015-01-12 | 0.337 | draghi: history shows that falling prices can be as damaging to the prosperity and stability of our countries as high inflation. that is why our mandate is symmetric. and that is why we are now ensuring that the risk of deflation you just asked me about does not materialise. you, as a journalist, also have a duty to explain. public opinion in germany is very important for us. your intentions are good, the effects of your policies are simply not acceptable for many citizens. people are worried about their savings and pensions. they did not invest money, like goldman sachs, in shares, options and highly controversial bonds, but focused with your majority – rather conservatively – on savings books, german government bonds and life insurance policies. because of the ecb’s low interest rate … |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Bild Zeitung | Period_2 | 2012-03-23 | 0.312 | part i bild: president draghi, when it was clear that you were to become head of the european central bank, bild made a photomontage of you wearing a prussian spiked helmet and called you a “true german”. what did you think of that? mario draghi: i really liked it. the prussian element is a good symbol of the ecb’s key task: to maintain price stability and to protect european savers. bild: for germans, a central bank chief must take a strict line on inflation, be politically independent and favour a strong euro. in that light, how german are you? draghi: these are indeed german virtues. but every central banker in the euro area should have them. bild: the french president said that europe should learn from the german model… draghi: …he’s right. long before him i said that germany is a m… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Die Zeit | Period_2 | 2013-12-12 | 0.297 | mr cœuré, do you know what the interest rate on savings accounts in germany is? very low, probably close to 0%. that’s correct. some banks pay 0.25% or even less. can you relate to savers in germany being annoyed that the european central bank (ecb) is making them foot the bill for the crisis? rates are very low because the euro area economy is weak. take the example of low long-term interest rates on german government bonds, which are important for life insurance contracts and pensions. why exactly is the weak economy responsible for low rates? if growth is weak, there are few profitable investment opportunities. as savings need to be invested in order to achieve returns, this means that returns are low. low market rates also, however, create the conditions for new growth and this will… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview in Bild | Period_2 | 2016-05-10 | 0.280 | bild: does such criticism from the finance minister or from the german vice chancellor threaten the independence of the ecb? draghi: no. but any perception that the ecb’s independence is under attack can unsettle businesses and consumers. they might then postpone investment and spending decisions that would be good for jobs and growth. that might force the central bank to do more to achieve price stability. bild: has the strength of the criticism from germany also got something to do with the fact that you are an italian, and what do you think of demands that the next president of the ecb must be a german? draghi: there is really nobody in the world who is interested in the fact that i am an italian apart from the german media. and what difference would it make if a non-italian were now… |
| Christine Lagarde: Welcome address marking the change in office of the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.180 | christine lagarde: welcome address marking the change in office of the president of the deutsche bundesbank welcome address by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at a virtual ceremony marking the change of office of the president of the bundesbank,11 january 2022. * * * it is a pleasure to be here today to speak with you. this ceremony marks an important moment of transition for the deutsche bundesbank. we say goodbye to a good friend, jens, after more than ten successful years at the helm of this proud institution. and we welcome joachim as the bundesbank’s new president. the bundesbank is no stranger to moments of transition. it has presided over some remarkable changes in germany’s economy since its establishment back in august 1957. that includes implement… |
| Isabel Schnabel: New narratives on monetary policy – the spectre of inflation | Period_3 | 2021-10-12 | 0.098 | governments are actively supporting this transition. as the central bank for the euro area we especially welcome the fiscal policy response at eu level. for the first time since the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008, our monetary policy measures are being adequately supported by fiscal policy at the european level. “next generation eu” is the largest fiscal package that has ever been financed from the eu budget. the countries that were hardest-hit by the pandemic are receiving extensive financial support to accelerate their recovery. financial support is not solely about cushioning the economic and social effects of the crisis. the main aim is to strengthen the growth potential of euro area countries by investing in green and digital technologies – in other words, to count… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.094 | even these institutional innovations were initially insufficient to change the course of european policies. the financial assistance given to countries hit by the financial and sovereign debt crises was tied to strict policy conditionality. financial assistance programmes were conceived in partial equilibrium at the level of single countries, with insufficient efforts made to understand their implications for the euro area as a whole. the start of banking union was also not immune to policy errors. as a member of the ecb’s supervisory board at the time, i argued against the decision to accelerate the necessary increase in banks’ capital ratios in the midst of a crisis, especially in view of the incomplete nature of banking union.[8] the procyclical policies that characterised those year… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.085 | conclusion i’d like to conclude by reminding the young students that are in this room today that not far from here, in monte cassino, 78 years ago there was war. thousands of italians, many of them civilians, as well as germans, french, poles, brits, americans and many others, lost their lives in the valleys near here, in what was the tragedy of the second world war. today monte cassino has returned to the vocation that the monks chose for it: a place of meditation and study. and we should thank the european project for this. the war on our doorstep reminds us of what we owe european integration: three-quarters of a century of peace, during which we have built our wealth. ukrainians know that well. they are fighting for their country, and for the very freedoms that we hold dear. and the… |
| Christine Lagarde: Commitment and persistence - monetary policy in the economic recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.078 | but if we are patient and persistent now, | am confident that these conditions will eventually be met. gdp should reach its pre-pandemic level before the end of this year. inflation expectations are rising towards our target. measures of underlying inflation are moving in the right direction. and wage growth, which is a key element of underlying inflation, should start to gradually strengthen. the ecb’s recent contacts with large european companies suggest that wage growth will pick up somewhat next year, [15] let me conclude. we do not take this phase of higher inflation lightly. but in our strategy review we have agreed on how to approach the type of situation we face today. we are committed to ensuring that inflation stabilises at our 2% target in the medium term. today, inflation is… |
The most representative speeches:
5.54 Topic 54: activity; economic activity; quarter; expect; remain
5.54.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | activity | 1 | 0.1508584 | activity | 1 | 1.0000000 |
| 54 | economic activity | 2 | 0.0963794 | economic activity | 2 | 0.9998248 |
| 54 | quarter | 3 | 0.0433125 | quarter | 3 | 0.9985093 |
| 54 | expect | 4 | 0.0309577 | consumer confidence | 4 | 0.9974984 |
| 54 | remain | 5 | 0.0258981 | weigh | 5 | 0.9973714 |
| 54 | decline | 6 | 0.0242508 | confidence | 6 | 0.9971939 |
| 54 | economy | 7 | 0.0234271 | economic outlook | 7 | 0.9969336 |
| 54 | confidence | 8 | 0.0233094 | contraction | 8 | 0.9965775 |
| 54 | impact | 9 | 0.0217798 | weak economic | 9 | 0.9965307 |
| 54 | continue | 10 | 0.0167202 | weak | 10 | 0.9960541 |
| 54 | affect | 11 | 0.0160142 | slow | 11 | 0.9958800 |
| 54 | indicator | 12 | 0.0153082 | decline | 12 | 0.9958717 |
| 54 | weak | 13 | 0.0146022 | weakness | 13 | 0.9956625 |
| 54 | follow | 14 | 0.0124843 | indicator | 14 | 0.9956134 |
| 54 | reflect | 15 | 0.0120136 | subdue | 15 | 0.9954877 |
5.54.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.246 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.149 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.132 | economic outlook a. global economic situation let me begin with the assessment of the global economic situation. the turmoil in financial markets, which was triggered by a systematic under-pricing of risk, particularly in the us sub- prime mortgage market, has now developed into a fully-fledged financial and economic crisis at global level. while the world economy continues to face a severe and synchronised downturn, recent international business confidence indicators suggest that the pace of the decline in economic activity is slowing down somewhat. most forecasters expect that the global economy is likely to recover in 2010, albeit at a gradual pace. the june 2009 eurosystem staff |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-10-01 | 0.131 | economic and monetary developments the economic situation and outlook have improved since the previous hearing before parliament on 30 march 2009. inflation and inflationary pressures have remained low over recent months. as expected, inflation turned into negative territory over the summer period, due to the large decline in oil prices since last year. in august, annual inflation was still slightly negative, at -0.2%, after a reading of -0.7% in july. looking ahead, inflation is expected to turn positive again within the coming months and to remain subdued, within positive territory, over the policy-relevant horizon. this also reflects the fact that economic activity is expected to recover at a very gradual pace. the risks to the inflation outlook are broadly balanced. indicators of in… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.120 | the prospects for economic growth the latest data and survey indicators point to a substantial decline of real gdp in the fourth quarter of 2008 and to a continued weakness in economic activity in the euro area in the first half of this year. confidence is at historically low levels, world trade has sharply declined and financing conditions remain tight. all these factors are adversely affecting aggregate demand. recently, some survey indicators showed signs of stabilisation. it is too early to declare that we may be reaching the bottom of the downturn on the basis of these signals. other indicators point to a less encouraging, if not gloomier, outlook. in other words, what we see flashing amid the clouds that cover the economic landscape right now could either be a silver lining and a … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-02-08 | 0.164 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. hicp inflation rates have declined further, as anticipated, and are expected to fall below 2% in the coming months. over the policy-relevant horizon, inflationary pressures should remain contained. the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. medium to longer-term inflation expectations for the euro area remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. overall, this allows our monetary policy stance to remain accommodative. the… |
| Yves Mersch: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy amid the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-10-19 | 0.140 | yves mersch: the european central bank’s monetary policy amid the pandemic introductory remarks by mr yves mersch, member of the executive board of the european central bank and vice-chair of the supervisory board of the european central bank, at the mni connect roundtable, 19 october 2020. * * * i will provide a brief overview of our monetary policy amid the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic shock and against the background of our current assessment of the macroeconomic outlook.1 the economic outlook while euro area economic activity has rebounded strongly from the unprecedented collapse earlier this year, the recovery remains incomplete and prone to setbacks. we have seen a clear improvement across economic indicators, especially at the beginning of the summer. as strict lockdown measur… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-01-21 | 0.135 | let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. following a sharp contraction in the first half of 2020, euro area real gdp rebounded strongly and rose by 12.4 per cent, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter, although remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. incoming economic data, surveys and high-frequency indicators suggest that the resurgence of the pandemic and the associated intensification of containment measures have likely led to a decline in activity in the fourth quarter of 2020 and are also expected to weigh on activity in the first quarter of this year. in sum, this is broadly in line with the latest baseline of the december 2020 macroeconomic projections. |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-10-03 | 0.104 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. i would like to thank governor noyer for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr rehn. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. incoming information and analysis have further underpinned our previous assessment. underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. in keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. infla… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.103 | let me elaborate on the contrast between developments in the manufacturing and services sectors, which is evident in activity, confidence, employment and price data. the manufacturing sector has been underperforming the more domestically oriented services sector since 2018 (chart 6). the pmi manufacturing output index has been in contractionary territory for seven consecutive months, decreasing to 47.4 in the first two months of the third quarter, compared with an average of 48.5 in the second quarter. by contrast, the services pmi remains in expansionary territory and has edged higher, on average, in the third quarter to date, when compared with the previous quarter. so the gap between weak manufacturing and resilient services activity has further widened. euro area pmi indices (diffus… |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.190 | in fact, the euro area economy grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of this year, significantly slower than in the second quarter. by reducing people’s real incomes and pushing up costs for firms, high inflation continues to dampen consumption and investment. severe disruptions to the gas supply have exacerbated the situation, and both consumer and business confidence have plummeted. after a strong performance in previous quarters demand for services is slowing, and survey-based indicators for new orders in the manufacturing sector are falling. moreover, global economic activity is growing more slowly, reflecting the impact of continued high inflation, tightening financial conditions and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. as the prices paid for imports rise faster than those received for e… |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.146 | euro area economic outlook one year ago i said that growth prospects appeared quite positive following the rebound in economic activity in the first three quarters of 2021, as lockdown measures were lifted and vaccination rates rose. but as we know, the euro area growth outlook has deteriorated significantly since then. one year on, the russian invasion of ukraine and the ensuing global energy crisis have added to already high inflationary pressures, which continued to rise throughout 2022. as a result, economic activity has slowed down to the point that we cannot rule out a technical recession at the turn of the year. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.127 | the reduction in real wages and purchasing power is weakening domestic demand, with several leading indicators already pointing to a likely contraction in economic activity, starting from the last quarter of this year. the euro area pmi composite output index fell in october to its lowest level since november 2020, [11] with forward-looking indicators of activity particularly weak.[12] consumer confidence plummeted to |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.101 | economic activity in the near term, we expect activity to be dampened by high energy costs, the deterioration in the terms of trade, greater uncertainty and the adverse impact of high inflation on disposable income. the war in ukraine and renewed pandemic restrictions in china have made supply bottlenecks worse again. as a result, firms face higher costs and disruptions in their supply chains, and their outlook for future output has deteriorated. however, there are also factors supporting economic activity and these are expected to strengthen over the months to come. the reopening of those sectors most affected by the pandemic and a strong labour market, with more people in jobs, will continue to support incomes and consumption. in addition, savings accumulated during the pandemic are a… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-09-26 | 0.095 | the outlook for the euro area economy the euro area economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2022, mainly owing to strong consumer spending on services as the economy reopened. economies with large tourism sectors benefited especially, as people travelled more over the summer. the still robust labour market also continued to support economic activity. notwithstanding this, we expect activity to slow substantially in the coming quarters. there are four main reasons behind this. first, high inflation is dampening spending and production throughout the economy, and these headwinds are reinforced by gas supply disruptions. second, the strong demand for services that came with the reopening of the economy is losing steam. third, the weakening in global demand, also in the contex… |
The most representative speeches:
5.55 Topic 55: time; experience; lead; history; lesson
5.55.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | time | 1 | 0.0458438 | history | 1 | 0.9994743 |
| 55 | experience | 2 | 0.0345796 | learn | 2 | 0.9987734 |
| 55 | lead | 3 | 0.0253213 | lesson | 3 | 0.9987732 |
| 55 | history | 4 | 0.0225439 | century | 4 | 0.9986416 |
| 55 | lesson | 5 | 0.0180690 | idea | 5 | 0.9974146 |
| 55 | follow | 6 | 0.0179147 | experience | 6 | 0.9964844 |
| 55 | learn | 7 | 0.0162174 | gold | 7 | 0.9963962 |
| 55 | view | 8 | 0.0156002 | episode | 8 | 0.9962314 |
| 55 | introduce | 9 | 0.0120512 | friedman | 9 | 0.9961399 |
| 55 | late | 10 | 0.0115883 | famous | 10 | 0.9960480 |
| 55 | idea | 11 | 0.0115883 | precede | 11 | 0.9959240 |
| 55 | direction | 12 | 0.0109710 | accept | 12 | 0.9948303 |
| 55 | century | 13 | 0.0109710 | send | 13 | 0.9946913 |
| 55 | good | 14 | 0.0108167 | economist | 14 | 0.9946523 |
| 55 | control | 15 | 0.0108167 | tradition | 15 | 0.9946439 |
5.55.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of the Phillips Curve | Period_1 | 2008-06-16 | 0.287 | theories cannot even be tested before application. to be sure, history has offered a few “natural experiments”: for example, the hyperinflations that swept europe after the first world war were a prominent collective test, whose lessons have been absorbed, and are today deeply entrenched into the collective psyche of many european peoples. but the fundamental irreproducibility of controlled experiments in social sciences remains. true, in recent years, a very limited number of theories in the field of social science have been subjected to experiments. and, a recent strand of macroeconomic literature 18 has even argued that in the presence of uncertainty about the structure of the economy monetary authorities should “experiment”, by running monetary policy in such a way as to create suff… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Swiss monetary policy as viewed by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2007-06-26 | 0.254 | a historical and international perspective: a low-inflation country it has been noted that, notwithstanding the great inflation episode, and the temporary inflationary outbursts corresponding to the two world wars, the united states should correctly be characterised, when seen from a very long-run perspective, as a low-inflation country. this is a claim made, in particular, by bradford delong in his analysis of the us inflationary experience since the time of the civil war. 1 historical experience suggests that switzerland deserves such a characterisation to a significantly greater extent. first, since 1880 swiss annual inflation has been, on average, just 2.2%, to be compared to 2.6% in the us. second, in an international comparison with 13 other oecd countries since 1880, and excludin… |
| Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of the Phillips Curve | Period_1 | 2008-06-16 | 0.232 | it is a great pleasure for me to be here today at this conference. i will try to look at the historical evolution of the phillips curve and its interaction with macroeconomic outcomes from a slightly eccentric angle. forty years ago it suddenly became very difficult even for navigated policymakers who had been raised in the revered intellectual tradition of monetary orthodoxy to resist the revolutionary notion of a stable trade- off between inflation and unemployment. some rejected this notion – out of common sense and practical experience – and did it before scholars in universities could prove that it was theoretically fragile and empirically elusive. i view this episode – in which honest civil servants were ahead of their times in rejecting faulty propositions – as highly symbolic. t… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Swiss monetary policy as viewed by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2007-06-26 | 0.189 | madame la présidente de la confédération suisse, monsieur le président du gouvernement du liechtenstein, ministers, excellencies, dear president of the bank council of the swiss national bank, dear jean-pierre roth, dear chairman of the governing board of the swiss national bank, dear fellow governors, ladies and gentlemen, it is an immense pleasure for me to be here today with such a distinguished audience to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the swiss national bank (snb). the snb is to be especially congratulated because, in spite of the turbulences which have characterised the period since 1907 – two world wars, the great depression, and the great inflation – it has succeeded in delivering, on average, a remarkably low inflation rate. i regard a historical and inte… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Swiss monetary policy as viewed by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2007-06-26 | 0.183 | monetary policy and monetary aggregates as stressed by lucas, recalling the swiss national bank’s – and the bundesbank’s, as well as a number of european central banks’, including banque de france’s –acceptance, back in the 1970s, of the ultimately monetary nature of inflation, and their use of monetary means to bring it under control, is especially important today, when the relevance of monetary analysis for monetary policy is sometimes questioned. as charles goodhart sarcastically put it 5 “[m]onetarism, in any of its guises, has become somewhat unfashionable; and the new keynesian three-equation synthesis […] rides high. […] deviate from this, and you are not a member of the in crowd.” the reasons why the role of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis is today questioned are… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview in Die Zeit | Period_2 | 2015-01-15 | 0.291 | same time, we were angry that our institutions, our universities and our country were unable to function better, to address inequalities, to satisfy our desire for change. did you sympathise with any political grouping? no. my convictions were along what you would call today ideas of liberal socialism, not really suited for extremist groups. no open rebellion, no long hair? my hair was quite long, but not very long. and, that aside, i did not have parents whom i might have rebelled against. people close to you say that the period that really shaped mario draghi was that as from 1971, the five years he spent in the united states. is that so? that is correct. you asked me earlier whether there was a specific moment when i realised what work meant. well, in the united states, i learnt what… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview in Die Zeit | Period_2 | 2015-01-15 | 0.273 | did you ever feel homesick? i certainly did miss italy a little, but the 1970s were not really pleasant in my country. there was terrorism, an inflation rate that reached 20% … didn’t that inflation erode what your father left as inheritance? what we inherited was not very large, but enough for his three children to study. the first time i returned to italy in 1976 i found that the equivalent of a few hundred euros was all that remained of our inheritance. this was because the family court judge had instructed the guardian of my two younger siblings to invest the money in fixed-interest treasury bills. and that made all the money disappear into thin air. so you should actually understand why people in germany are so afraid of inflation. that is precisely the point: in germany, some pe… |
| Mario Draghi: A route for Europe | Period_2 | 2012-05-25 | 0.166 | a teacher, says eco, “teaches that everyone must become individual and different”.1 professor federico caffè, albeit with a coherent vision and deeply held convictions, was a teacher. he taught his students to think for themselves and did not pass on a binding creed. he helped his students – economists, thinkers, servants of the state and of the institutions, alert citizens – to discover themselves. i’ll start with the subject which, without a doubt, was the most precious to caffè, namely welfare. probably nothing in his intellectual heritage is more topical than this painful protest of his: one cannot, he would say, “accept the idea that an entire generation of young people should consider themselves as having being born at the wrong time and having to suffer job insecurity as an inevi… |
| Jürgen Stark: Globalisation and monetary policy - from virtue to vice? | Period_2 | 2011-11-30 | 0.136 | confusing “known knowns” with “known unknowns” a third element of vice in the relationship between monetary policy and globalisation in recent years has been the failure of policymakers to think through the possible ways in which they might be called to act as a result of situations which they have helped to bring about. in their well-cited book, reinhart and rogoff (2009) make a compelling case to show that financial bubbles throughout history have shared a number of common elements, such as rising home prices and financial innovation. yet as these authors point out, in spite of these common traits, policymakers have at times fallen prey of the “this time is different”23 illness. |
| Peter Praet: Price stability - a sinking will-o’-the-wisp? | Period_2 | 2015-04-17 | 0.112 | i would like to thank john hutchinson and elena bobeica for their contributions to this speech. ladies and gentlemen, i would like to thank the imf for inviting me to this excellent workshop and to be part of such a distinguished panel. i. introduction almost 50 years ago milton friedman famously described the phillips curve as a “will-o-the- wisp”. when he first used this metaphor, he was isolated in the macroeconomist community. but in a matter of few years – and after a few bad inflation surprises that were hard to square with the solid and steady phillips curve formalism that was embedded in many models of the time – his vision became less alien. many of his colleagues started to admit that the phillips curve was an extraordinarily frail platform for central banks to base monetary r… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.113 | as samuel johnson wrote, “great works are performed not by strength, but by perseverance”. and we will persevere until we have ensured price stability in the euro area. 1. league of nations (1946), “the course and control of inflation: a review of monetary experience in europe after world war i”, series of league of nations publications. economic and financial. 3. since the start of the pandemic, the volatility of durable goods consumption has been almost ten times higher than during the preceding two decades, and almost 30 times higher for services. 4. gonçalves, e. and koester, g. (2022), “the role of demand and supply in underlying inflation – decomposing hicpx inflation into components”, economic bulletin, issue 7, ecb. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.082 | the experience of this episode dramatically changed the conduct of monetary policy in the following decades. it forged a consensus among policymakers and academia on two fundamental pillars of modern central banking. |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.079 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.067 | this is why european countries have increasingly adopted common objectives and embedded them in european law. and this is why we built economic and monetary union (emu). not because a common law and a single economic area are an end in themselves, but because they are a means to an end offering peace, freedom and prosperity. but we should not take the success of the european project for granted. europe emerged from the lessons of history repeated time and again across the centuries. but any progress made has not been free from uncertainty or errors, including in the recent past. so we should always measure the european project against our common objectives, asking ourselves whether it properly addresses our shared aspirations and our collective needs. today, i would like to assess the p… |
| Christine Lagarde: Challenges along Europe’s road | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.051 | ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy as needed. the governing council’s decisions in april reflect these characteristics, while also providing a clearly defined sequence of events for the normalisation process. first, we will end net purchases under the asset purchase programme. judging by the incoming data, my expectation is that they should be concluded early in the third quarter. the first rate hike, informed by the ecb’s forward guidance on the interest rates, will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases. we have not yet precisely defined the notion of “some time”, but i have been very clear that this could mean a period of only a few weeks. after the first rate hike, the normalisation process will be gradual. conclusion let me conclude. in prešeren’s … |
The most representative speeches:
5.56 Topic 56: increase; average; period; level; decline
5.56.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | increase | 1 | 0.0965273 | average | 1 | 0.9995619 |
| 56 | average | 2 | 0.0818685 | volatility | 2 | 0.9983352 |
| 56 | period | 3 | 0.0650045 | period | 3 | 0.9982458 |
| 56 | level | 4 | 0.0648748 | peak | 4 | 0.9979822 |
| 56 | decline | 5 | 0.0325736 | mid | 5 | 0.9978972 |
| 56 | result | 6 | 0.0298494 | record | 6 | 0.9974592 |
| 56 | time | 7 | 0.0277738 | average inflation | 7 | 0.9974528 |
| 56 | volatility | 8 | 0.0250496 | decline | 8 | 0.9972800 |
| 56 | fall | 9 | 0.0210282 | increase | 9 | 0.9971004 |
| 56 | start | 10 | 0.0193418 | inflation volatility | 10 | 0.9966608 |
| 56 | reach | 11 | 0.0190823 | substantial | 11 | 0.9964954 |
| 56 | inflation rate | 12 | 0.0181743 | reach | 12 | 0.9964045 |
| 56 | rise | 13 | 0.0173959 | historical | 13 | 0.9960571 |
| 56 | follow | 14 | 0.0149312 | observe | 14 | 0.9960557 |
| 56 | mid | 15 | 0.0146717 | result | 15 | 0.9959599 |
5.56.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: EMU after seven years - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2006-05-09 | 0.159 | price stability contributes to low macroeconomic volatility in the euro area in our short history, we have had to face substantial challenges and economic shocks. just think of the economic consequences of the terrorist attacks in september 2001, the sharp decline of equity prices at the beginning of this decade and the substantial increases in oil prices. against this background, our track record since 1999 in terms of price developments and inflation expectations bears testimony to the ecb’s ability to deliver a monetary policy that is in continuity with the best practices inherited from the national central banks of the euro area. as you know, the ecb aims to maintain price stability by keeping inflation rates below, but close to 2% over the medium term. since the launch of the euro … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy in EMU - views and challenges | Period_1 | 2005-06-29 | 0.151 | strongly. the volatility of quarterly hicp inflation in the euro area (measured as the standard deviation over the previous six years) fell from around 0.6 percentage point during the late 1980s to less than 0.3 percentage point in the mid-1990s. since then, inflation volatility has stabilised at this very low level, in spite of major inflationary shocks. and the average volatility of long-term consensus inflation expectations has also declined substantially, by four-fifths, from almost 0.5 percentage point in the 1990s to around 0.1 percentage point in recent years. lower volatility of actual and expected inflation reduces consumer and investor uncertainty and thereby enhances welfare. stable inflation expectations and a high degree of confidence on the part of financial market partici… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy in EMU - views and challenges | Period_1 | 2005-06-29 | 0.144 | the first years of the euro - price stability and well-anchored inflation expectations … when taking a closer look at those developments that can be influenced by monetary policy, there can be little doubt that the emu project has been a great success, which is particularly remarkable against the background of the many and sizeable economic shocks that have hit the euro area since the introduction of the euro. when looking at the euro area as a whole, a regime shift towards greater monetary stability took place during the second half of the 1990s. this was associated with the emu project enshrined in the maastricht treaty, and in particular with the convergence process and the introduction of the euro. since the ecb became responsible for monetary policy in the euro area in 1999, hicp i… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: EMU after seven years - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2006-05-09 | 0.121 | response to macroeconomic shocks. under current circumstances, this implies that higher inflation due to oil price shocks and higher indirect taxes should not be included in wage contracts. otherwise unemployment and inflationary pressures would increase. it is sometimes argued that a policy aimed at price stability could lead to higher unemployment and increased macroeconomic volatility. it will not surprise you that i do not agree with this view. to the contrary, not only reforms that enhance the flexibility of markets, but also credible monetary policy and well-anchored inflation expectations, over time, contribute to job creation and to dampening macroeconomic fluctuations. and indeed, the achievements in the area of monetary stability have not come at the cost of higher unemploymen… |
| Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Challenges for the Euro at ten | Period_1 | 2008-12-12 | 0.117 |
|
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.138 | prior to the financial crisis, the performance of inflation targeting was in practice widely considered as a success.2 to recall that in the 70s and 80s, a period that now seems in the distant past, the key challenge for central banks was very high inflation, not too low. empirical evidence suggests that countries that adopted inflation targeting, beginning with new zealand in 1989, have experienced lower average inflation rates than they did before its adoption. for instance, in a prominent study, carl walsh identifies ten inflation‐targeting oecd countries and reports that the average inflation rate across countries declined from 9.2% prior to the adoption of inflation targeting to 3.2% after the adoption. importantly, the decline in the level of inflation was accompanied by a decline… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2012-03-27 | 0.136 | measures of performance how well has the ecb managed the transmission mechanism and the macroeconomy? since the inception of the single currency the ecb has fulfilled its price stability mandate. taking the long-term average as a performance indicator, inflation rates in the euro area have been on average a few basis points above 2%. you can see their exact evolution over time on this slide [4]. the slight overshoot relative to our aim – close to, but below, 2% – is due to the recent renewed pressures on volatile components of the price basket. it certainly remains within the strictest tolerance bands. simultaneously, the ecb has managed to compress the volatility of inflation in the euro area. slide 5 shows a breakdown of the volatility of headline inflation into the volatility of core… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.100 | let me now turn to the second argument against inflation targeting: its apparent inability to engineer a quicker recovery in economic activity and inflation. to provide you with some additional figures, it took the euro area almost eight years before real gdp reached the 2008 q1 level again, which marked the previous peak. likewise, hicp inflation has been considerably below 2% since the second half of 2013, and only more recently started to move closer to its objective. this increase in headline inflation was however mainly driven by rising energy and food prices and not accompanied by the evolution of underlying inflation.8 price and nominal gdp level targeting 6 see, for instance, de grauwe (2007) and eichengreen et al. (2011). 7 see svensson (2016). 8 a fair assessment of the perfor… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Assessing the new phase of unconventional monetary policy at the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2015-08-28 | 0.089 | the ongoing deterioration of long-term inflation expectations was a major factor in the extension of our purchase programme in january this year. figure 6 shows the evolution of these expectations over the past decade and since 2012. euro area longer-term inflation expectations (both market-based and, to a lesser extent, survey-based) had been falling since early 2013, reaching an all-time low by early 2015. |
| Peter Praet: The APP impact on the economy and bond markets | Period_2 | 2015-07-14 | 0.089 | that outlook is of course contingent on the full implementation of our app. as of 26 june 2015 the ecb had purchased eur 297.1 bn under the entire app, including eur 193.9 bn under the public sector purchase programme (pspp), eur 94.6 bn under the covered bond purchase programme (cbpp3) and eur 8.6 bn under the asset-backed securities purchase programme (abspp). accordingly, the ecb’s balance sheet has expanded by eur 527 bn to eur 2,539.5 bn since end-september 2014, mainly due to the asset purchases and the four tltros. for the pspp we have been able to achieve all operational targets (i.e. announced quantities and parameters of the asset allocation) and purchases have by and large not been disruptive to market functioning. since mid-april, however, volatility has risen markedly, reve… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.147 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.132 | compared with the rise in market rates, the adjustment in the rates on deposits – which are a stable funding source for banks, amounting to a third of their liabilities – has been more sluggish and this has contributed to containing the increase in bank funding costs so far. in some euro area countries, deposit rates were negative during recent years – providing evidence that monetary policy transmission also works in a negative rate environment – and are now coming back into positive territory.[37] in addition, the outstanding funds in the ecb’s targeted lending programme (tltros) are still dampening the increase in bank funding costs.[38],[39] the recent monetary policy rate hikes, combined with the expectation of future rate increases, have been substantially passed through to lendin… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.125 | a new era of volatility the pandemic and the war in ukraine have led to an unprecedented increase in macroeconomic volatility. output growth volatility in the euro area over the past two years was about five times as high as it was at the peak of the great recession in 2009.[5] inflation volatility has surged beyond the levels seen during the 1970s. once the exceptional effects of the pandemic and the war wash out from the data, output and inflation volatility are bound to decline. yet, there are valid grounds to believe that policymakers will find themselves in a less favourable environment over the medium term – one in which shocks are potentially larger, more persistent and more frequent. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.095 | services inflation has also been rising — to 1.1% in august!“4! — and it would have reached 2% using the consumption weights of last year, slightly above its historical average. this is also largely the result of demand returning to the sectors hardest hit by the lockdowns. inflation in high-contact services accounts for virtually all of the rise we are seeing in services. once these pandemic-driven effects pass, we expect inflation to decline. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.073 | digging deeper into the micro evidence since the golosov-lucas paper was published, economists have been studying numerous micro price datasets from different countries. researchers have been busy constructing models that can match various features of the micro data, including the average frequency and size of price changes. in 2018 the european system of central banks established prisma – the price-setting microdata analysis network – to collect and study various kinds of micro data, aiming to deepen our understanding of price-setting behaviour and inflation dynamics. today, peter karadi will present the findings from a research project undertaken as part of the prisma network. in the paper, peter and his co-authors raphael schoenle and jesse wursten set out to measure the selection ef… |
The most representative speeches:
5.57 Topic 57: loan; growth; annual; financial; risk
5.57.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | loan | 1 | 0.0240167 | sale | 1 | 0.9986854 |
| 57 | growth | 2 | 0.0215937 | loan sale | 2 | 0.9980248 |
| 57 | annual | 3 | 0.0196113 | securitisation | 3 | 0.9973277 |
| 57 | financial | 4 | 0.0193910 | annual growth | 4 | 0.9954353 |
| 57 | risk | 5 | 0.0168212 | financial corporation | 5 | 0.9952222 |
| 57 | continue | 6 | 0.0163073 | sector balance sheet | 6 | 0.9949828 |
| 57 | credit | 7 | 0.0154996 | corporation | 7 | 0.9947372 |
| 57 | analysis | 8 | 0.0121221 | sector balance | 8 | 0.9946323 |
| 57 | remain | 9 | 0.0112411 | annual rate | 9 | 0.9942176 |
| 57 | annual growth | 10 | 0.0107271 | loan | 10 | 0.9940954 |
| 57 | adjust | 11 | 0.0104334 | ongoing adjustment | 11 | 0.9940657 |
| 57 | sale | 12 | 0.0101397 | financial sector balance | 12 | 0.9936562 |
| 57 | reflect | 13 | 0.0094789 | analysis confirm | 13 | 0.9918905 |
| 57 | balance | 14 | 0.0092586 | annual growth rate | 14 | 0.9918473 |
| 57 | increase | 15 | 0.0088181 | household adjust | 15 | 0.9914431 |
5.57.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-11-07 | 0.150 | of the still high energy prices, protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. with regard to price developments, euro area annual hicp inflation was 3.0% in october according to eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from september. inflation rates have been at elevated levels since the end of last year, mainly driven by higher energy and other commodity prices. looking ahead, they are likely to stay above 2% for some months to come, before falling below 2% in the course of 2012. inflation rates are expected to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. this pattern reflects the expectation that, in an environment of weaker euro area and global growth, price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should also mod… |
| Lucas Papademos: The effects of globalisation on inflation, liquidity and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-06-13 | 0.116 | households or non-financial corporations. moreover, the process of securitisation of loans itself positively affects the capacity of banks (of mfis, to be precise), to issue new loans and thus it could have an indirect expansionary effect on m3 growth. how can we deal with the influence of these factors on money creation and their potential effects on the medium and long-term inflation outlook? in general, the same answer applies as with respect to changes in net external assets. given that the ofis’ money holdings and investment activities could have indirect effects on consumer price developments via asset prices, it would be premature to automatically exclude, without further analysis, the money balances held by ofis from the monetary aggregates when assessing the risks to price stab… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-09-09 | 0.070 | mainly relate to the ongoing tensions in some segments of the financial markets in the euro area and at the global level, as well as to the potential for these pressures to spill over into the euro area real economy. they also relate to further increases in energy prices, protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. with regard to price developments, euro area annual hicp inflation was 2.5% in august 2011, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from july. we have now seen inflation rates at relatively high levels since the end of last year, with higher energy and other commodity prices as the main drivers. looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to stay clearly above 2% over the coming months. thereafter, on the basis of the p… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation, expectations and current challenges to monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-10-14 | 0.061 | vigilance can thus be communicated to the public even if policy rates remain unchanged, in particular if risks emerge or increase but have not materialised and if underlying developments justify the no-change option. this explains why communication intensity can at times increase, as measured by what some call “hawkish-ness” indicators, while policy rates remain unchanged, as happened in the first half of 2004.6 if the communication strategy is successful, expectations converge over time back to the level of unchanged policy rates. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-03-27 | 0.056 | unemployment rates have fallen to levels not seen for 25 years. accordingly, consumption growth should continue to contribute to economic expansion. this assessment is reflected in the latest ecb staff projections, which foresee annual real gdp growth in the range of 1.3% to 2.1% in 2008 and of 1.3% and 2.3% in 2009. these ranges have been revised downwards, reflecting weaker global demand, stronger pressure from commodity prices and less favourable financing conditions than foreseen in december. in the view of the governing council, uncertainty about the prospects for economic growth remains unusually high. downside risks relate to a potentially broader than currently expected impact of financial market developments. further downside risks stem from the scope for additional increases i… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2014-01-10 | 0.613 | according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation was 0.8% in december 2013, compared with 0.9% in november. this outcome was broadly as expected and reflected lower services price inflation. on the basis of prevailing futures prices for energy, annual inflation rates are expected to remain at around current levels in the coming months. over the medium term, underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued. at the same time, inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. the risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be seen as broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to hi… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2014-02-12 | 0.606 | the medium term, underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued. inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. both upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments remain limited, and they continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. turning to the monetary analysis, data for december 2013 confirm the assessment of subdued underlying growth in broad money (m3) and credit. annual growth in m3 moderated to 1.0% in december, from 1.5% in november. deposit outflows in december mirrored the strong sales of government and private sector securities by euro area mfis, which, in part, could be related to adjustmen… |
| Mario Draghi: Introductory statement to the press conference | Period_2 | 2014-08-08 | 0.602 | the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside. in particular, heightened geopolitical risks, as well as developments in emerging market economies and global financial markets, may have the potential to affect economic conditions negatively, including through effects on energy prices and global demand for euro area products. a further downside risk relates to insufficient structural reforms in euro area countries, as well as weaker than expected domestic demand. according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation was 0.4% in july 2014, after 0.5% in june. this reflects primarily lower energy price inflation, while the other main components of the hicp remained broadly unchanged. on the basis of current information, annual hicp inf… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2014-10-03 | 0.574 | loan growth to the private sector, and the necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors. the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside. in particular, the recent weakening in the euro area’s growth momentum, alongside heightened geopolitical risks, could dampen confidence and, in particular, private investment. in addition, insufficient progress in structural reforms in euro area countries constitutes a key downward risk to the economic outlook. according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation was 0.3% in september 2014, after 0.4% in august. compared with the previous month, this reflects a stronger decline in energy prices and somewhat lower price increases in most other components of the hicp. on th… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-10-03 | 0.560 | downside risks include higher commodity prices in the context of renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker than expected global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries. according to eurostat’s flash estimate, and broadly in line with expectations, euro area annual hicp inflation decreased in september 2013 to 1.1%, from 1.3% in august. on the basis of current futures prices for energy, annual inflation rates are expected to remain at such low levels in the coming months. taking the appropriate medium-term perspective, underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued, reflecting the broad-based weakness in aggregate demand and the modest pace of the recovery. medium to long-term inflation expectations continue to be firmly anchored… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.060 | with the recovery now in a more advanced stage, and with growth momentum moderating, some observers see current developments as raising the spectre of stagflation, reminiscent of the 1970s when a surge in oil prices stifled growth and pushed inflation levels up into double digits across most oil-importing economies. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.050 | notably, the current estimates are well below the unconditional estimate which reflects average tail risks over a long horizon. an analysis of the underlying drivers suggests that the intensification of the downside risks to real gdp growth can be traced back predominantly to heightened financial and geopolitical risk, a bleaker macroeconomic outlook, and some deterioration in credit and financial conditions. |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.043 | inflation seen in recent months. 7. the previous high was 1.67 percentage points in july 2008. 8. more domestically-generated inflation refers to the items in the hicp that are characterised by a direct and indirect import content in consumption expenditure of less than 15%. see frohling, a., o’brien, d. and schaefer, s. (2021), “a new measure for domestic inflation in the euro area”, mimeo. 9. see bokan, n., dossche, m. and rossi, l. (2018), “oil prices, the terms of trade and private consumption”, economic bulletin, |lssue 6, ecb. 10. the mechanism described in the text applies mainly to non-energy industrial goods but also to services. in addition, base effects related to the negative inflation in some sectors during the pandemic are also affecting services price inflation. 11. see a… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.037 | the persistence of the shocks when inflation is driven mainly by supply shocks, monetary policy should respond when the shocks are persistent to keep inflation expectations anchored and avoid that inflation becomes entrenched. understanding the reasons for the persistence of current shocks and whether they may permanently lower potential is also crucial for designing the adequate policy response. there are two alternative explanations for the persistence of the supply shocks we have experienced. the first is that the economy has been hit by a sequence of temporary supply shocks, which have jointly created a persistent effect on inflation. in this case, potential output should remain broadly unchanged. and the lingering effect of the supply shocks on economic activity through real income… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.035 | first, there is no stable, long-run trade-off that monetary policy can exploit to permanently lower unemployment at the expense of modestly higher inflation. hence, the best contribution that central banks can make to growth and welfare is to maintain price stability. |
The most representative speeches:
5.58 Topic 58: target; inflation target; level; cent; reach
5.58.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | target | 1 | 0.2450466 | target | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 58 | inflation target | 2 | 0.0711977 | inflation target | 2 | 0.9999124 |
| 58 | level | 3 | 0.0490897 | cent target | 3 | 0.9984222 |
| 58 | cent | 4 | 0.0253069 | cent | 4 | 0.9979827 |
| 58 | reach | 5 | 0.0234646 | target inflation | 5 | 0.9977649 |
| 58 | stabilise | 6 | 0.0177701 | level target | 6 | 0.9977623 |
| 58 | horizon | 7 | 0.0172677 | symmetric | 7 | 0.9973716 |
| 58 | consistent | 8 | 0.0171002 | stabilise | 8 | 0.9973686 |
| 58 | nominal | 9 | 0.0139180 | price level | 9 | 0.9971516 |
| 58 | set | 10 | 0.0129131 | reach | 10 | 0.9970160 |
| 58 | deviation | 11 | 0.0117407 | cent inflation | 11 | 0.9970152 |
| 58 | price level | 12 | 0.0117407 | deviation | 12 | 0.9969760 |
| 58 | effective | 13 | 0.0109032 | durably | 13 | 0.9968888 |
| 58 | bind | 14 | 0.0102333 | flexible inflation | 14 | 0.9966647 |
| 58 | cent target | 15 | 0.0085585 | flexible inflation target | 15 | 0.9963574 |
5.58.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial crisis? | Period_1 | 2010-04-13 | 0.140 |
|
| Juergen Stark: In search of a robust monetary policy framework | Period_1 | 2010-11-25 | 0.135 | international convergence on these principles has, however, been a slow process. after the collapse of the bretton woods system there was a long period of confusion created by the loss of a nominal anchor, which, during the system’s good times, had been provided by the us commitment to peg its currency to the price of gold. in the 1970s even some central bankers were sceptical that monetary policy alone could control inflation. 3 failed attempts to fine-tune the economy and the associated stop-and-go policies resulted in stagflation in a vast portion of the industrialised world. drawing lessons from this experience, and inspired by monetarist views that had successfully influenced monetary policy in germany and switzerland, central banks in the 1980s gained confidence in their ability t… |
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.133 | 2.4 the ecb’s strategy and inflation-targeting strategies the two-pillar framework, in conjunction with the medium-term orientation of the ecb’s monetary policy conduct, has over time become the hallmark of the ecb’s strategy. these features, among others, distinguish the ecb’s strategy somewhat from the approaches implemented by some other central banks, in particular from inflation-targeting strategies. the notion of inflation targeting has changed over time and it is not a clearly defined concept. it is nevertheless true that the ecb’s monetary policy concept and the “inflation targeting” concept are relatively close in some respects: in particular the quantitative setting of the inflation target in the latter is close, without being identical, to the quantitative definition of price… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial crisis? | Period_1 | 2010-04-13 | 0.122 | 9 see m.a. king (1997), “changes in uk monetary policy: rules and discretion in practice”. journal of monetary economics 39, pp. 81–97. 10 see l.e.o. svennson (1998), “inflation targeting in an open economy: strict or flexible inflation targeting?” victoria economic commentaries 15(1). 11 at least when the output gap is defined in a “model-consistent” manner, i.e. as deviations of output from the level it would achieve in the absence of nominal rigidities. 12 see: o. blanchard and j. galí (2007). “real wage rigidities and the new keynesian model”, journal of money, credit and banking 39(s1), pp. 35–65. |
| Mr Erçel discusses the monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 1999-01-08 | 0.113 | there are lingering suspicions in some quarters about the credibility and reliability of this system, and since there is a good chance that a loss of credibility will follow a failure to meet an inflation target, the ecb will not announce such a target. i should also mention that some member countries’ central banks have reservations about conducting monetary policy with inflation targeting. people who accept monetary aggregates as good intermediate targets say that in accordance with the principles of continuity and flexibility, which are the basis for central bank credibility, it is more realistic to target monetary indicators and use these targets to attain price stability. |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.269 | against this background, some commentators argue that inflation targets should be replaced with some sort of level target. the two most prominent examples are price level targeting and nominal gdp level targeting, where central bank aim to stabilise the price level and nominal gdp respectively along some target path. proponents of level targeting strategies argue that they allow for a more powerful management of private sector expectations, leading to better stabilisation outcomes than under inflation targeting.9 |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.268 | another proposed alternative strategy is nominal gdp growth targeting or, as economists sometimes call it, “speed limit” policy.14 nominal gdp growth targeting is different from nominal gdp level targeting – as with inflation targeting, past outcomes are not taken into account. bygones are bygones. loosely speaking, the nominal gdp target is the sum of an inflation target and an estimate of potential gdp growth. the central bank tightens policy whenever nominal gdp growth is above this target and loosens when it is below. while theoretical analyses suggest that speed limit |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.218 | flexible inflation targeting implies that the central bank attempts to reach the target gradually in the medium‐term and not in the immediate period. svensson (1997)4 has shown that this gradualism is equivalent to an objective function that includes both the inflation rate deviation from its target and the output gap. this is close to inflation targeting regimes of central banks with a dual mandate but with primordial importance given to inflation as the variable in relation to which monetary policy is more efficient. on the other hand, bean (2009, 2013)5 has shown that no great differences exist between a flexible inflation targeting framework and one with a nominal gdp target. these |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.196 | 9 see, for example, svensson (1999), vestin (2006), gaspar, smets and vestin (2007) and schmidt (2011). 10 see eggertsson and woodford (2003), and nakov (2008). 11 see evans (2010). 12 note also that in the case of nominal gdp level targeting, an additional challenge arises due to the unobservability of potential gdp and measurement errors in real gdp. 13 see, for instance, kryvtsov, shukayev and ueberfeldt (2008). it is therefore perhaps not surprising that one has to go far back in history to find an example of a level‐targeting central bank. in the 1930s, the swedish riksbank pursued a price level targeting strategy. see berg and jonung (1999). 14 see, for instance, walsh (2003). |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.190 | similarities should be taken into consideration when understanding the popularity of the flexible inflation targeting framework since the early 90s. this positive verdict on inflation targeting has been more recently called into question. typically, opponents of inflation targeting rely on one of the following two arguments. first, some criticise inflation targeting for having failed to prevent the occurrence of the crisis. inflation‐targeting central banks, it is argued, focused too narrowly on inflation stabilisation and payed too little attention to financial developments, such as the rapid increase in house prices or the rise in financial institutions’ leverage ratios prior to the financial crisis.6 second, inflation targeting is attacked for its apparent inability to speed up the r… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.256 | inflation episodes would not be tolerated by policymakers. the policy commitment to resist below-target inflation was also reinforced by publication of the ecb’s new monetary policy strategy statement in july 2021, which articulated our determination to deliver our symmetric two per cent inflation target, including through forceful or persistent policy measures in the neighbourhood of the effective lower bound. more recently, the surge in inflation since autumn 2021 also has potentially acted as a circuit breaker in terms of the setting of inflation expectations by overturning the pre-pandemic narrative that an array of structural forces would permanently keep inflation at a low level. while a re-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations around the two per cent target rate acts as… |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.159 | second, the re-anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations towards two percent has also been supported by the clarity of the ecb’s new monetary policy strategy, which was finalised in july 2021 and backed up by its revised interest rate forward guidance. the revised strategy makes it clear that the monetary policy of the ecb is dedicated to delivering the two per cent target over the medium term, with a symmetric aversion to below-target and above-target deviations. the simplicity and transparency of the two per cent target increases accountability and improves clarity compared to the previous target of “below, but close to, two per cent.” |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.138 | the second condition – that we expect inflation to reach two per cent not only well ahead of the end of the projection horizon but also “durably for the rest of the projection horizon” – telegraphs that inflation reaching the target should be lasting and not just be the result of short-lived forces that lead to one- time increases in prices that are unlikely to lead to persistently higher year-over-year inflation. the third condition, which requires “progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term’, signals that policy rates should not be lifted unless underlying inflation is also judged to have made satisfactory progress |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.131 | inflation persistently below the two per cent target over the medium term. moreover, it should also be recognised that medium-term inflation expectations have been increasing from a low base towards the two per cent inflation target over the last year, even before the energy shock. in the specific context of the euro area, there are several factors indicating that the excessively- low inflation environment that prevailed from 2014 to2019 (a period over which inflation averaged just 0.9 per cent) might not re-emerge even after the pandemic cycle is over. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.128 | the first condition “until we see inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of our projection horizon’ provides reassurance that the convergence of inflation towards the new target should be sufficiently advanced and mature at the time of policy rate lift off. moreover, requiring the inflation target to be reached “well ahead of the end of the projection horizon’ helps to hedge monetary policy against the risk of relying excessively on inflation projections at the long-end of the projection horizon, where forecast errors tend to be larger under typical conditions.!) |
The most representative speeches:
5.59 Topic 59: market; liquidity; money; money market; collateral
5.59.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | market | 1 | 0.1422984 | money market | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 59 | liquidity | 2 | 0.0797171 | market rate | 2 | 0.9992111 |
| 59 | money | 3 | 0.0685117 | money market rate | 3 | 0.9987727 |
| 59 | money market | 4 | 0.0550863 | collateral | 4 | 0.9980710 |
| 59 | collateral | 5 | 0.0171358 | liquidity | 5 | 0.9978936 |
| 59 | bank | 6 | 0.0167130 | repo | 6 | 0.9974565 |
| 59 | security | 7 | 0.0149159 | interbank | 7 | 0.9973701 |
| 59 | fund | 8 | 0.0144931 | term money | 8 | 0.9971920 |
| 59 | market rate | 9 | 0.0139645 | term money market | 9 | 0.9971472 |
| 59 | provide | 10 | 0.0115331 | overnight | 10 | 0.9966696 |
| 59 | function | 11 | 0.0111103 | security market | 11 | 0.9964948 |
| 59 | segment | 12 | 0.0104760 | segment | 12 | 0.9961414 |
| 59 | money market rate | 13 | 0.0083618 | unlimited | 13 | 0.9959647 |
| 59 | overnight | 14 | 0.0075161 | operational framework | 14 | 0.9959222 |
| 59 | instrument | 15 | 0.0074104 | market fund | 15 | 0.9956556 |
5.59.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: China and the European Union - global economic challenges and policy responses | Period_1 | 2008-09-17 | 0.276 | at the same time, the ecb will continue to manage liquidity in the interbank money market in order to ensure that the very short-term money market rate remains close to the ecb’s main policy rate, as required for the efficient implementation of monetary policy, and to alleviate the persisting pressures in the term money markets, so as to mitigate the impact of the financial turmoil on the banking system and the broader economy. over the past year, the ecb money market operations have effectively contributed to containing risks to the euro area’s financial stability without changing the stance of monetary policy – as defined by the key ecb interest rates – which remained firmly geared towards the price stability objective. moreover, although the ecb supplied large amounts of liquidity to… |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic perspectives and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-09-10 | 0.275 | liquidity management while the ecb has maintained a steady hand in its monetary policy decisions, we have not been passive in the face of the financial tensions. rather – and contrary to the expectations of some observers – we have proved able to act rapidly and, when necessary, significantly, to support the functioning of the money market that is central to the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. during this period of heightened stress and uncertainty, the ecb has used its liquidity operations in a pragmatic manner, consistent with both the monetary policy stance decided by the governing council and the market-oriented approach that has always characterised our liquidity management. although the frequency of liquidity operations has increased when necessary and the timi… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-07-01 | 0.235 | recent monetary policy operations of the ecb turning to our liquidity management, since march, the ecb has continued to apply basically four liquidity measures to alleviate ongoing tensions in the euro money market. first, the ecb has continued to “frontload” the supply of liquidity over the reserve maintenance period. this means that we have provided more liquidity at the beginning of the maintenance period, while compensating for this by providing less liquidity towards the end of the period. the average supply of liquidity has thus remained unchanged over the entire maintenance period. second, around the end of the first quarter of 2008, when money market tensions were intensifying, the ecb conducted two liquidity-providing fine-tuning operations to address these tensions. the ecb ha… |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.221 | asset valuation is difficult and highly uncertain, and incentives are distorted, the risks to financial stability could increase. the current financial turmoil provides a clear example of how a shock to a relatively small segment of a national financial market can spread globally across borders and across other markets. as early as 2005, us sub-prime loan delinquencies started to rise. consequently the value of credit products based on sub-prime mortgages rated lower than aa started falling. but it was not until two hedge funds from bear stearns with active exposure in the sub-prime market had almost lost all their capital by june 2007 and when some rating agencies in early july announced that they would downgrade many asset-backed securities (abss) and collateralised debt obligations (… |
| Lucas Papademos: Economic outlook in the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-06-17 | 0.216 | financial markets let me now turn to financial market developments and the financial stability outlook in the euro area. the financial system of the euro area is still undergoing further adjustment as the processes of risk repricing and de-leveraging continue. the stresses on the financial system have persisted longer and they have become broader and deeper than anticipated six months ago. although there have been some signs of easing tensions in certain markets since mid-march, elevated pressures remain in others, notably in the term money markets of major currencies. moreover, high uncertainty surrounds the future dynamics of property prices, the magnitude of possible further asset valuation write-downs by financial institutions and the effects of the market turmoil on the broader eco… |
| Peter Praet: Opening remarks - “Money markets, monetary policy implementation and central bank balance sheets” | Period_2 | 2017-11-06 | 0.335 | favour of a much reduced level of fragmentation and a more homogenous degree of access to liquidity across the euro area. this is also supported by the fact that the interest rates observed across countries are more correlated with aggregate excess liquidity levels rather than country- specific levels. unsecured vs. secured segments second, we have observed a sustained shift of money market activity from the unsecured to the secured segment. activity in the unsecured segment has declined significantly over time, in the first place due to the heightened counterparty risk in the wake of the crisis. activity in the unsecured market has stabilised but remains subdued. this is linked to the high level of excess liquidity and reduced short-term funding needs for banks, as well as, to some ext… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2014-01-17 | 0.263 | on money-market conditions: “it’s not new that we’ve been worried by possible upward shifts in our money-market curve, in particular caused by external shocks. u.s. tapering is one of them, but there could be others that could make the money-market curve both higher and steeper. it’s all a matter of judgment and measure, not black and white. but at some point such developments could interfere with our monetary-policy stance, generally, and with our forward guidance, more specifically. so we want to make sure that monetary conditions, including money-market rates in the euro area, remain appropriate to the situation. our recovery is lagging the recovery in the u.s. that’s a fact and that warrants different monetary conditions.” “what we’ve seen around the end of 2013 was positive. the ma… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.255 | this development is not neutral for market rates in the euro area. secured money market rates, backed by high quality collateral, have for a while been trading well below the ecb deposit facility rate, which normally sets a floor for short‐term money market rates. in part, this discount is explained by the activity of non‐banks who do not have access to central bank facilities and are accepting interest rates below the deposit facility rate. the discount is, of course, also attributed to the app which has reduced the availability of high quality collateral at the same time as market demand for that collateral has increased. understanding the root causes of these observed outcomes better is crucial for the central bank when making decisions about future counterparty eligibility and the c… |
| Peter Praet: Steering the economy in a challenging environment | Period_2 | 2013-11-19 | 0.239 | enumerated before could pose further threats to our price stability objective, and may thus call for more action. second, within the fixed rate full allotment operational framework that we have prolonged in time, the rate on the main refinancing operations can act as a backstop for money market borrowing and lending activity over an extended horizon. this effectively can cap upward volatility in the money market rates. if banks expect to be able to draw central bank credit on demand over an extended horizon, the cost of interbank credit in the money market, even for longer tenors, will be unlikely to increase much beyond the rate at which the ecb is expected to lend under the main refinancing operations in the future. this, again, helps flatten the yield curve in the money market and ke… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for future monetary policy frameworks - a European perspective | Period_2 | 2016-11-09 | 0.239 | reasons behind this growth provide useful lessons for the post-crisis world. 12 beyond the justifications provided by the crisis for the use of the size and composition of central banks’ balance sheets as policy instrument, there are good arguments to preserve the instrument in the policy toolkit. they stem from some structural changes that have occurred in financial markets. in particular: the increased role of secured money market transactions; the importance of a broad set of market rates beyond the overnight rate, in view of imperfections in arbitrage; the growing relevance of non-bank institutions in market-based finance; and finally, the scarcity of safe assets that affects the functioning of markets and the management of collateral. these developments are behind proposals recentl… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.314 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.313 | financial markets the money market starting with the money market, the transmission of the increase in the key ecb interest rates to the unsecured money market rates has been smooth and complete for both the july and september rate hikes (chart 8).[31] this is especially important, since the €str is the basis for the overnight interest rate swap curve, along which the market prices expectations of future policy. in the secured segment, the general pattern has been that of near-complete adjustment of repo rates for transactions based on a broad collateral pool, which are predominantly driven by a motivation to borrow or lend cash. by contrast, repo rates for transactions using specific collateral – which are driven by the need to source a specific security – have seen some delayed and pa… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.236 | the transmission of interest rate changes in the money market the money market is key for the implementation and transmission of monetary policy: it acts as a seismograph for liquidity conditions and market expectations of future policy, while money market rates are central to the transmission of monetary policy through their impact on economy-wide financing conditions. it follows that it is important that money market rates adjust in line with changes in key ecb interest rates. this applies in particular to changes in the deposit facility rate (dfr), which represents the relevant policy rate in conditions of excess liquidity. the available evidence suggests that our july rate hike of 50 basis points, which increased the dfr from -0.5 per cent to zero, has been well transmitted to money… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.185 | moreover, there has been a widening of the spread between short-term government bill rates and swaps with the same maturity (chart 1). this can be mainly attributed to demand/supply imbalances in the market for short-term government bills, which is partially driven by the level of excess liquidity and increased demand for short-term high-quality assets. this increased demand is also motivated by the current interest rate uncertainty and high level of volatility. these demand/supply imbalances of high- quality collateral with short-term maturities can also be observed in other jurisdictions of major central banks for similar reasons.[4] the increase of the dfr by 75 basis points to 0.75 per cent that we decided last week will only become effective with the start of the new maintenance pe… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.170 | monetary policy and the money market opening remarks by philip r. lane, member of the executive board of the ecb, meeting of the money market contact group 14 september 2022 it is a pleasure to open this meeting of the ecb’s money market contact group (mmcg).[1] while the money market is always central to the transmission of monetary policy, its role is especially prominent when the set of policy interest rates is the main active monetary policy instrument. after an extended period in which policy rates were stable near the lower bound and asset purchasing was the marginal monetary policy instrument, the money market is now back to centre stage in the transmission of monetary policy and the mmcg is an excellent forum to collect feedback from you, the money market practitioners. in these… |
The most representative speeches:
5.60 Topic 60: expectation; inflation expectation; anchor; term inflation expectation; term inflation
5.60.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | expectation | 1 | 0.2158248 | anchor | 1 | 0.9995619 |
| 60 | inflation expectation | 2 | 0.1617564 | inflation expectation | 2 | 0.9994742 |
| 60 | anchor | 3 | 0.1109092 | anchor inflation | 3 | 0.9993865 |
| 60 | term inflation expectation | 4 | 0.0339480 | anchor inflation expectation | 4 | 0.9993863 |
| 60 | term inflation | 5 | 0.0255502 | good anchor | 5 | 0.9991236 |
| 60 | remain | 6 | 0.0214088 | term inflation expectation | 6 | 0.9989484 |
| 60 | anchor inflation | 7 | 0.0168072 | expectation | 7 | 0.9987719 |
| 60 | anchor inflation expectation | 8 | 0.0164621 | expectation remain | 8 | 0.9977221 |
| 60 | good anchor | 9 | 0.0137012 | inflation expectation remain | 9 | 0.9977221 |
| 60 | commitment | 10 | 0.0102500 | level consistent | 10 | 0.9973716 |
| 60 | firmly | 11 | 0.0094447 | term inflation | 11 | 0.9972800 |
| 60 | level | 12 | 0.0081793 | firmly | 12 | 0.9971075 |
| 60 | stable | 13 | 0.0077191 | remain anchor | 13 | 0.9970600 |
| 60 | expectation remain | 14 | 0.0076041 | firm anchor | 14 | 0.9964075 |
| 60 | inflation expectation remain | 15 | 0.0072590 | firmly anchor | 15 | 0.9963198 |
5.60.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.199 | the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations second, with its quantitative definition the ecb has made a very significant contribution to the firm anchoring of inflation expectations. the definition of price stability permits all economic agents and the public at large to build expectations of future inflation outcomes. by providing a benchmark for inflation expectations, the quantitative definition of price stability has considerably facilitated the conduct of monetary policy by the ecb. indeed, if the public can trust the ecb, we can assume that the setting of wages and prices will be compatible with the ecb’s definition. this significantly reduces the likelihood of temporary bouts of inflation triggering harmful wage and price spirals, as was the case in previous decades. in our… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the European economy and the ECB’s monetary policy concept | Period_1 | 2004-07-20 | 0.196 | the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the light of past experience, it is clear that the announcement of the quantitative definition of price stability, in combination with the medium-term orientation of policy, has been an extremely valuable element of the ecb’s strategy. with its quantitative definition, the ecb has made a very significant contribution to the firm anchoring of inflation expectations. notably, it has provided a benchmark for inflation expectations, which in turn has considerably facilitated the conduct of monetary policy. indeed, as long as longer-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored, chances are high that the setting of wages and prices will be guided primarily by the ecb’s objective rather than by past developments. this significantly reduce… |
| Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Challenges for the Euro at ten | Period_1 | 2008-12-12 | 0.179 | disappearance of an impact of actual inflation outcomes on agents’ expectations, which is a clear indication of the credibility of our price stability objective. i briefly elaborate on both issues. recent ecb research 3 has shown that, after january 1999, inflation persistence has disappeared both at the aggregate, euro area-wide level, and within its three largest countries (germany, france, and italy). further, similar changes have affected inflation dynamics in several inflation-targeting countries and in switzerland under the “new monetary policy concept”, whereas they have been largely absent in the united states and japan, two countries characterised by a committment to price stability but lacking a clearly-defined nominal anchor. as a result, in the euro area, switzerland, and in… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Lessons for monetary policy from the recent crisis | Period_1 | 2011-01-20 | 0.176 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.157 | indicates that medium-term inflation expectations in the euro area are solidly anchored at levels consistent with the aim of the governing council of keeping inflation at rate of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. such a firm anchoring represents the strongest and most reassuring safeguard against any risk of a downward spiral of inflation and inflation expectations. the fact that we have a clear mandate and a clear definition of price stability is helpful in anchoring inflation expectations. as in the case of growth, a considerable degree of uncertainty surrounds the inflation projections of the ecb staff. risks to these projections are broadly balanced. they relate in particular to the risks to the outlook for economic activity as well as to risks to commodity prices. |
| Vítor Constâncio: “We are certainly not almighty”- interview with Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-09-16 | 0.184 | what really matters are medium- to longer-term inflation expectations. are they still “anchored”? they are starting to get de-anchored for horizons up to 4 years. these figures declined significantly during the past two months. now it is also starting to attain the inflation expectations in five years for the following five years. furthermore, the influence of short- term expectations on longer-term expectation is increasing. this is a bad signal and a big concern for us. the risk that the longer-term expectations get de-anchored has definitely increased enormously. |
| Peter Praet: Interview with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2015-11-27 | 0.169 | inflation has repeatedly undershot your forecasts… it is key for a central bank to keep inflation expectations anchored, especially in a period of slack in the economy. and we have some signals that these inflation expectations are still fragile. is that still the case? i think it’s still the case. long-term inflation expectations remain fragile. i never said they are de-anchored, i don’t think they are, but there are risks and this is why we are considering further action. a possible de-anchoring of inflation expectations together with a lot of slack is a dangerous cocktail. a lot of the latest wave of commodity price declines is demand related. at some point in the recent past you had a supply side issue, which is a windfall for consumers, but now a significant part is also coming fro… |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.144 | for the actual process of setting wages and prices, it is the expectations of the public that matter most. since our last strategy review there has been more research on how consumers and firms form their inflation expectations. while data are still scarce and noisy, the general picture is that consumers hold very diverse expectations about inflation that appear far less well anchored to our aim than other measures of inflation expectations. in 2015 average perceived inflation among euro area households was just under 5%, while actual inflation was 0.3%. |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy under uncertainty | Period_2 | 2015-11-26 | 0.133 | uncertainty over the way economic agents form expectations about future economic developments and economic policy actions in terms of inflation expectations, a series of both demand and supply shocks in the euro area have led, at times, to a possible loosening in the anchoring of agents expectations of inflation. today, inflation expectations have only partially regained the values that would indicate a rapid and sustained adjustment in the path of inflation to levels closer to 2%. in particular, we have seen, on occasions, longer-term inflation expectations responding to short-term movements in oil prices. that is unacceptable for a central bank, insofar as it implies that people’s expectations of its reaction function have become less certain. at the same time, the crisis has also lef… |
| Fabio Panetta: Monetary-fiscal interactions on the way out of the crisis | Period_2 | 2021-07-02 | 0.111 | we must be clear that, in order to re-anchor inflation expectations, our policy horizon cannot extend far into the future. if we are seen as determined to achieve 2% without undue delay and have a clear plan to do so by enabling monetary-fiscal interactions, rising inflation expectations will make our task easier. but if we are seen to be lacking determination, expectations will be less responsive and the “bang for our buck” will be considerably lower: we will end up spending more, not less, and we may not exit the liquidity trap. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-09-21 | 0.169 | the pace of rate increases the second consideration in responding to current inflation is the pace of rate increases. when inflation is high for a long period of time, an important role for monetary policy is to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored as the shocks work their way through the economy. if expectations become de-anchored and trigger a wage-price spiral, it can lead to inflation becoming persistent even after the shocks disappear. raising interest rates has a mechanical effect on demand and inflation, and thereby on inflation expectations. but when interest rates are starting from unusually low levels, rate hikes are more powerful if they also create signalling effects that influence expectations directly. in this context, especially compared with the traditional… |
| Isabel Schnabel: The globalisation of inflation | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.151 | conditions in domestic product and labour markets, which monetary policy can influence directly, are still the key drivers of a significant share of overall inflation. it rather means that the importance of keeping inflation expectations firmly anchored at our target has increased. large and persistent global shocks can destabilise inflation expectations even if the main source of expansion or contraction stems from abroad. in the 2010s, global shocks were largely disinflationary, contributing to the secular decline in long- term inflation expectations. today, global conditions give rise to the risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations to the upside. by responding swiftly and decisively to these risks, monetary policy can secure price stability over the medium term, thereby avoid… |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.136 | modest wage demands also suggest that inflation expectations remain well anchored. that picture is corroborated by market-based and survey-based measures — at both medium- and longer-term horizons — which show no signs of de-anchoring. what we see is rather inflation expectations re- anchoring towards our 2% target from below, especially when filtering out risk premia (chart 8). an increase in risk premia in inflation compensation is common in response to a supply shock. |22 |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.130 | the credibility of the euro area’s nominal anchor. if long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, the risks of a wage-price spiral will be limited. this is what we have observed so far in the euro area. the ecb’s forward-looking wage tracker currently points to further increases in wages, but these are expected to remain at levels that are unlikely to set in motion a harmful wage-price dynamic. therefore, while a close monitoring of wage developments remains essential, at present the most likely outcome remains a further decline in real consumer wages and the labour share of income. our consumer expectations survey points in a similar direction. it found that households anticipate their real wages to fall by around 6% over the next twelve months (slide 7, left-hand chart).[17] |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.127 | monetary policy should normally “look through” temporary supply-driven inflation, so long as inflation expectations remain anchored. indeed, we are monitoring developments carefully but, for now, we see no signs that this increase in inflation is becoming broad-based across the economy. a “trimmed mean’”!“4] of inflation — which removes the items with the highest and lowest inflation rates — stood at 2.1% in august. furthermore, wage developments so far show no signs of significant second-round effects. |
The most representative speeches:
5.61 Topic 61: hand; slide; firm; chart; leave
5.61.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | hand | 1 | 0.0634136 | slide | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 61 | slide | 2 | 0.0631500 | hand | 2 | 0.9989476 |
| 61 | firm | 3 | 0.0452239 | profit | 3 | 0.9988610 |
| 61 | chart | 4 | 0.0377107 | hand chart | 4 | 0.9985967 |
| 61 | leave | 5 | 0.0324383 | margin | 5 | 0.9981601 |
| 61 | rise | 6 | 0.0241343 | leave hand | 6 | 0.9981598 |
| 61 | share | 7 | 0.0204437 | chart slide | 7 | 0.9981579 |
| 61 | profit | 8 | 0.0196528 | leave | 8 | 0.9980710 |
| 61 | increase | 9 | 0.0189938 | chart | 9 | 0.9978069 |
| 61 | cost | 10 | 0.0180711 | profit margin | 10 | 0.9972806 |
| 61 | margin | 11 | 0.0167530 | firm | 11 | 0.9967500 |
| 61 | pass | 12 | 0.0160940 | leave hand chart | 12 | 0.9967069 |
| 61 | demand | 13 | 0.0159621 | pass | 13 | 0.9963172 |
| 61 | level | 14 | 0.0151713 | leave chart | 14 | 0.9960910 |
| 61 | leave hand | 15 | 0.0126669 | cost push | 15 | 0.9951278 |
5.61.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The effects of globalisation on inflation, liquidity and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-06-13 | 0.060 | such estimated effects is not straightforward. the domestic economy’s response to the emergence of new international low-cost competitors is not captured by these estimates. furthermore, it is not clear to what extent and for how long these effects should be expected to persist. the empirical evidence on the direct impact of globalisation on labour markets is also mixed. indeed, it seems that the findings are getting less rather than more robust and it may be difficult to disentangle the effects of globalisation from those resulting from technological advances. in theory, it could be expected that the increased openness of the economies may affect the demand for labour by firms in advanced economies directly, as a result of increased international competition and, indirectly, by increas… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.057 | euro area output gap estimates are also characterised by a large degree of revision, and there is an equally large disagreement between different sources, as documented in charts 3 and 4. however, the latest estimates do suggest that the euro area had a negative output gap in the period 2002-2005. overall, the unreliability of measures of the output gap affects the appropriateness of monetary policy prescriptions that are predicated on such a construct. and, in all likelihood, output-gap estimates are going to become more unreliable than ever due to the increased uncertainty and possible time-variation in potential output brought about by the recent financial crisis. the unreliability of output-gap measures is not the only reason why a central bank may fail to take timely action, irresp… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: A stability-oriented monetary policy as a necessary condition for long term growth | Period_1 | 2004-12-23 | 0.048 | labour costs, which fosters firms’ competitiveness, growth and job creation. in a credible regime of low inflation workers do not ask for extra-wage increases to compensate for inflation risk and firms and trade unions know ex-ante that firms will not be able to pass higher wages on to consumer prices. this helps to avoid excessive nominal increases, thus enhancing the ability of firms to efficiently manage their production costs and create new jobs. at the current juncture, it is important that there are no second round effects on wage and price settings arising from the recent increase in oil prices. such effects have not been observed till now. all economic agents know without any doubt that we are very vigilant in this respect; and we trust that it is this vigilance and our credibil… |
| Jürgen Stark: Main challenges for monetary policy in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2008-03-31 | 0.047 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation, inflation, imbalances and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-07 | 0.044 | relative to the rate of growth in domestic trade”. these are quantities and processes we can measure. let us look at some charts. the value of all world exports of goods and services relative to world gdp has increased by ten percentage points (from 19% to 29%) over the past 10-15 years (see chart 3) and it is expected to continue to grow steadily until the end of the decade. even more impressive is the acceleration in total foreign direct investment (fdi) relative to world gdp (see chart 4). since the late 1990s, the pace of integration in the world economy, as illustrated by the stock of inward fdi as a percent of gdp, has accelerated substantially, particularly in non-japan asia and in the new member states of the european union (see chart 5). the charts for fdi implicitly incorporat… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Escaping low inflation? | Period_2 | 2021-07-05 | 0.352 | option prices in financial markets, for example, suggest that investors currently price in almost a one-in-four chance that inflation over the next five years will average more than 2% – the highest level since 2014 (left chart slide 9). estimates of the inflation risk premium, which had turned negative a few years ago on the back of growing risks of deflation, now signal a renewed interest of investors to hedge against the risks of inflation (right chart slide 9). flows into inflation-protected bond funds have accelerated measurably since around last summer in both the euro area and the united states. survey-based evidence points in a similar direction. the results of our most recent survey of monetary analysts suggests that more than 40% of respondents see upside risks to inflation th… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Escaping low inflation? | Period_2 | 2021-07-05 | 0.337 | in the past, there have often been substantial lags in the pass-through of pipeline pressure. ecb staff analysis finds, for example, that it usually takes one year or more for cost-push shocks in intermediate goods prices to pass through to hicp inflation (right chart slide 13).4 surveys, however, signal that a historically large share of companies is raising output prices today (left chart slide 14). many firms also expect prices to continue to rise in the near term. two factors might cause firms to frontload and strengthen the pass-through to consumer prices at present. one relates to firms’ state-contingent pricing behaviour. empirical evidence suggests that firms are more likely to pass through cost-push shocks in an environment of rising demand.5 consumers being willing to accept h… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.316 | the share of euro area firms with very high profitability – here measured as firms displaying a ratio of profits over revenues of greater than 5% – has increased by around 10 percentage points, to 42%, since 1995. at the same time, the share of firms with very low profitability has declined. two broad competing hypotheses have been proposed in the literature to explain the rise in profits, mainly for the case of the united states. one is that growing profits are the result of the rise of highly productive “superstar firms”. the other hypothesis, which is less favourable, is that a gradual decline in competition and increased regulation has protected rent-seeking firms.[11] a more detailed discussion of these hypotheses is beyond the scope of my remarks today. i will rather focus on what… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Escaping low inflation? | Period_2 | 2021-07-05 | 0.254 | 80% over the past 12 months (left chart slide 3). surging commodity prices reflect, to a large extent, base effects, meaning that price increases are statistically amplified by the exceptionally low prices observed a year ago. this can easily be seen when comparing prices today with prices two years ago, before the pandemic hit. over this period, energy price inflation in the euro area was, by and large, flat (right chart slide 3). that is, households saw no increase in energy costs over the past two years. the second factor that has contributed to the observed rise in global headline inflation is the marked increase in the inflation rate of the broader consumption basket. this increase has been much more dispersed across economies (left chart slide 4). in the euro area, for example, th… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Escaping low inflation? | Period_2 | 2021-07-05 | 0.211 | the potential for second-round effects the third upside potential relates to second-round effects. an example best illustrates this: today, the price of hairdressing is visibly above its pre-pandemic trend, and unlikely to reverse in the future, given sticky prices in this sector (left chart slide 17). so, even if current price dynamics will ultimately be limited to a one-time level effect, if it extends to a broad category of goods and services and if it is not matched by higher wages, it may depress real incomes. perceptions of an erosion of purchasing power may be reinforced by price increases being concentrated in frequently purchased consumer goods and services (right chart slide 17). second-round effects refer to the possibility that a transitory rise in inflation may lead to stro… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.348 | (slide 5, left-hand chart). the aggregate demand channel therefore points to an easing in inflationary pressures. the cost-push channel, too, currently suggests that wages are unlikely to add to inflation going forward, as real producer wages, deflated using sectoral value added deflators, have also fallen across most industries since the start of the pandemic (slide 5, right-hand chart). in fact, profits across a broad range of industries have risen markedly, even in some contact-intensive sectors (slide 6, left-hand chart). this means that many firms have so far been able to increase their prices beyond the increase in nominal wages, and in many cases even beyond the increase in energy costs. in the hospitality and transport sectors, for example, profits have expanded by nearly 20% si… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.332 | firms’ efforts to protect profit margins may weaken link between labour costs and inflation the second factor driving a wedge between inflation and the labour share relates to the role of profits. unit labour costs account for a significant share of firms’ total costs and are hence central to the cost- push view of inflation. but the increase in other costs, such as the cost of capital or energy, is currently working in the opposite direction. specifically, the unprecedented scale of pipeline pressures means that firms may choose not to pass lower real unit labour costs on to consumer prices to protect their profit margins from higher energy costs. in some sectors, where producers have not been able to increase prices above the rise in costs, there could even be pressure on firms to act… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.287 | a declining labour share will weigh on aggregate demand the link between the labour share and inflation is not just a conceptual idea. new research by economists at the federal reserve board suggests that the sharp decline in inflation in the united states and the united kingdom in the 1980s may have been driven to a significant extent by the marked decline in the labour share.[8] the study suggests that the secular erosion of workers’ bargaining power is an important factor explaining the joint dynamics of inflation and the labour share.[9] the same mechanism has likely been at work in the euro area. from the early 1980s until the eve of the global financial crisis, the labour share of income fell significantly and persistently, coinciding with a measurable decline in inflation and tra… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right sequence | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.279 | when the labour market in the euro area is already showing first signs of strain. this brings me to the second point – the recovery in the labour market. strong recovery in the labour market although the pandemic is still raging through the economy, slack in the labour market has continued to decline at a notably faster pace than projected (slide 5, left-hand chart). a year ago, our central forecast was that the euro area unemployment rate would decline, on average, to 8.1% in 2022. in december 2021, the unemployment rate stood already at 7%. we are currently witnessing the strongest labour market in the history of the single currency. the unemployment rate is at a record low and below estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu), while the participation rate… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right sequence | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.242 | to increase both in december 2021 and in january 2022, when it reached a new historical high of 5.1% (slide 2). in january, euro area inflation surprised to the upside for the seventh consecutive month. today, inflation is not only higher than expected, but price pressures are also visibly broadening. measures of underlying inflation are following an unprecedented upward trend (slide 3, left-hand chart). the prices of around two-thirds of the goods and services included in the hicp are currently increasing at an annual rate above 2% (slide 3, right-hand chart). less than a year ago, this share was close to 20%. current measured inflation would be even higher if the costs of owner-occupied housing were included. residential real estate prices continued to increase at an alarming pace. in… |
The most representative speeches:
5.62 Topic 62: country; national; individual; development; shock
5.62.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | country | 1 | 0.2199594 | individual | 1 | 0.9992990 |
| 62 | national | 2 | 0.0393214 | divergence | 2 | 0.9985105 |
| 62 | individual | 3 | 0.0380284 | individual country | 3 | 0.9985084 |
| 62 | development | 4 | 0.0291064 | country | 4 | 0.9981568 |
| 62 | shock | 5 | 0.0275547 | economic performance | 5 | 0.9978496 |
| 62 | difference | 6 | 0.0222533 | region | 6 | 0.9977213 |
| 62 | specific | 7 | 0.0210895 | performance | 7 | 0.9976332 |
| 62 | performance | 8 | 0.0185034 | specific | 8 | 0.9972813 |
| 62 | region | 9 | 0.0174690 | country specific | 9 | 0.9971047 |
| 62 | member | 10 | 0.0165639 | national | 10 | 0.9970133 |
| 62 | divergence | 11 | 0.0119089 | heterogeneity | 11 | 0.9969748 |
| 62 | common | 12 | 0.0107452 | difference | 12 | 0.9964886 |
| 62 | structure | 13 | 0.0103573 | member country | 13 | 0.9963178 |
| 62 | level | 14 | 0.0100987 | common shock | 14 | 0.9955589 |
| 62 | degree | 15 | 0.0100987 | cross country | 15 | 0.9954405 |
5.62.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Are different price developments in the euro area a cause for concern? (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 6 Sep 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-09-11 | 0.398 |
|
| Mr Noyer gives a review of the economic situation in the euro area (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Mar 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-02-13 | 0.309 | differences in economic performance across member states … the single currency reflects a large number of factors, both at the area-wide and at the national level, and is therefore a joint responsibility of all member states and of all policy areas. in this respect, differences in growth and inflation between member states will continue to occur also with a single monetary policy, just as they have been normal between regions in the individual countries. monetary union is no universal shield against shocks and does not prevent these shocks from affecting countries differently, depending on their economic structures and policy responses. at the same time, monetary policy can no longer be geared towards the divergent developments in individual countries and it is clear that, if this div… |
| Mr Duisenberg discusses the challenges posed by economic divergences in the euro area: the consequences for economic policies (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 5 Nov 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-11-09 | 0.270 | short-term divergences among euro area countries considering the short-term factors, with regard to price developments, there are various “country-specific” factors of a very temporary nature. among these, government policies are perhaps the most obvious. these may lead to different price developments across countries within the monetary union in the short run via indirect tax changes, liberalisation measures and administrative price changes. these are generally not of the same magnitude and timing across countries. differences in growth and inflation may also occur over relatively short periods due to the occurrence of “asymmetric shocks” or differences in the responses to common shocks. a very clear example of such an asymmetric shock was german reunification. other shocks affect coun… |
| Christian Noyer: The ECB and the accession process | Period_1 | 2001-10-15 | 0.192 | looking at the broader picture, however, there are other types of challenges that one should also consider. these challenges are closely related to what are the fundamental differences between the accession countries and the current euro area members. i have already mentioned what is, perhaps, the most striking difference: the divergence of per capita income levels and, related to this, the difference in price levels. other important factors, however, may also be worth investigating, such as the different potential vulnerabilities to external shocks. some of these ‘features’ of the new member states will probably not have fully disappeared, when these countries will join the euro area. the successful implementation of structural reforms and the acceleration of the catching-up process of… |
| Christian Noyer: France, Europe, the euro and the ECB | Period_1 | 2002-03-22 | 0.185 | can one size fit all? the ecb’s definition of price stability should be seen as a quantification of the ecb’s primary objective, which applies to the euro area as a whole. this implies that for the single monetary policy to be considered successful in fulfilling its primary objective only aggregate developments matter. the euro area countries need not and will not always exhibit similar price developments. in the same way as the maintenance of price stability within a single country is consistent with divergences in the rate of price change among different regions and cities, price stability in the euro area is generally in line with inflation differentials among individual member countries. indeed, studies of price differentials between major us cities show that these differentials are… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Heterogeneity and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-04-02 | 0.187 | on the left-hand side you can see ecb research on the extent to which output in each country responds to a common area-wide shock. clearly, there are significant differences, even among countries of broadly comparable size. on the right-hand side you can see eurosystem estimates of the slope of the phillips curve.8 it shows a high degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries for the sensitivity of core inflation to economic slack. in other words, country-specific factors of inflation remain considerable, for example the degree of wage negotiation centralisation. these factors are also related to national institutions. the upshot is that, in this environment, monetary policy is more difficult to calibrate. different transmission mechanisms propagate the same shock to different degr… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in a prolonged period of low inflation | Period_2 | 2014-05-26 | 0.149 | local factors to add to this, aggregate inflation has been dragged down by local factors linked to the sovereign debt crisis and the process of relative price adjustment in stressed countries. several euro area countries are currently undergoing internal devaluation to regain price competitiveness, both internationally and within the currency union. the crucial adjustments vis-à-vis other euro area countries have to take place irrespective of changes in the external value of the euro. this process began hesitantly in the early years of the crisis, largely due to nominal rigidities in wages and prices. the result was that adjustment took place more through quantities – i.e. unemployment – than through prices. stressed countries thus experienced a protracted period of declining disposable… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Effectiveness of Monetary Union and the Capital Markets Union | Period_2 | 2017-04-10 | 0.140 | note: the chart summarizes the five-year cumulative contributions of capital markets, credit markets, fiscal tools, and relative prices to the smoothing, in terms of consumption growth, of a 1-standard-deviation shock to gdp growth. each bar thus measures the parts of the shock to country-specific gdp that are absorbed by the respective channels. the remainder is interpreted as the unsmoothed portion of a gdp shock, i.e., the part of a shock to country-specific gdp growth that is reflected into country-specific consumption growth. contributions sum up to 100 percent, and a negative contribution corresponds to dis-smoothing of consumption growth. the respective contributions are estimated over rolling ten-year backward-looking windows, based on annual data and applying the asdrubali and … |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in a prolonged period of low inflation | Period_2 | 2014-05-26 | 0.123 | propagation through the euro area so do we see any signs that low inflation might propagate through the euro area in this way? on aggregate, euro area firms and households do not seem to be particularly exposed to debt deflation dynamics. the interest payment burden of euro area firms – the ratio of their gross interest payments to gross operating surplus – has actually fallen from 22% in 2008 to less than 12% at the end of 2013, which suggests that firms are in a stronger position today to withstand a period of low inflation. for euro area households debt service-to-income ratios are similar – around 14% – while the median household holds the equivalent of around two months’ income in liquid assets to cushion nominal income shocks. but importantly, this picture masks the heterogeneity … |
| Benoît Cœuré: Heterogeneity and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-04-02 | 0.111 | benoît cœuré: heterogeneity and the european central bank’s monetary policy speech by mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the bank of france symposium & 34th suerf colloquium on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the euro on “the euro area: staying the course through uncertainties”, paris, 29 march 2019. * * * from the beginning of the euro area’s existence, it was well known that it did not meet all of the classic requirements of an optimal currency area. some critics have seen heterogeneity across member states as the factor that would ultimately cause the collapse of the single currency. but the euro is still here, despite years of crisis. while managing heterogeneity between regions and countries has been a challenge – at times tremen… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.149 | risk-sharing a distinct feature of monetary policy in a monetary union is that it might entail differences in transmission across countries or regions, reflecting differences in the financial structure or other country-specific factors. for example, as noted above, the speed at which interest rate changes are passed through to households and firms might differ across euro area countries due to differences in the share of variable-rate loans. in addition, recent analysis by ecb staff suggests that the extent of international risk sharing plays a key role in shaping the real effects of monetary policy shocks in euro area regions. in particular, a monetary policy tightening is associated with a stronger output contraction, the lower is the degree of risk sharing in a region. moreover, regi… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-11-29 | 0.092 | having lower financial buffers to cover the rising cost of living. currently, the gap between the effective inflation rate experienced by the lowest and highest income groups is by far at its highest level on record in the euro area.3 the divergence in inflation rates across euro area member countries is also at a record high, mainly due to different degrees of exposure to the energy shock and to the pandemic. we are monitoring these divergences carefully and expect them to normalise as the impact of these shocks fades over time. the different shocks over the past year have also had an impact on real economic activity. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.076 | monthly smooth local projections (see jarociński, m. (2021), “estimating the fed’s unconventional policy shocks”, working paper series, no 2585, ecb, august (revised june 2022)). 20. obstfeld, m. (2022), op. cit. 21. recent analyses show that the euro area lags notably behind the united states in terms of labour market efficiency (although levels for individual euro area countries vary, see chart 1 in sondermann, d. (2018), “towards more resilient economies: the role of well-functioning economic structures”, journal of policy modeling, vol. 40, no 1, pp. 97-117). productivity growth has also generally been lower in the euro area than in the united states for some time (see chart 7 in masuch, k. et al. (eds.) (2018), “structural policies in the euro area”, occasional paper series, no 210… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.053 | a balance will need to be found between remaining open, in order to support economic efficiency, while avoiding dependencies on suppliers that may become unreliable. this is the objective of the eu’s drive towards an “open strategic autonomy”. 3.1 the versailles declaration: implications for europe’s economic governance the versailles declaration of 11 march recognised that this conflict will have far-reaching effects on the structure and governance of the european economy.[20] in this declaration, eu leaders defined russia’s aggression against ukraine as a “tectonic shift in european history”. the declaration identifies security as a key common public good. and it identifies three conditions to achieve it: reducing energy dependence, bolstering defence capabilities and building a more … |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.051 | overall, the global inflation outlook and the global economic outlook are both fraught with uncertainty. monetary policy needs to ensure that inflation does not become entrenched and that it returns to target in the medium term. and fiscal policy needs to be carefully calibrated to country-specific circumstances to protect the most vulnerable groups from the cost-of-living crisis while preserving debt sustainability and without adding to inflationary pressures. |
The most representative speeches:
5.63 Topic 63: fiscal; growth; fiscal policy; pact; consolidation
5.63.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | fiscal | 1 | 0.0780883 | pact | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 63 | growth | 2 | 0.0356204 | growth pact | 2 | 0.9992988 |
| 63 | fiscal policy | 3 | 0.0296456 | consolidation | 3 | 0.9990362 |
| 63 | pact | 4 | 0.0283569 | budgetary | 4 | 0.9987732 |
| 63 | consolidation | 5 | 0.0243151 | sound fiscal | 5 | 0.9978948 |
| 63 | country | 6 | 0.0240808 | fiscal consolidation | 6 | 0.9973716 |
| 63 | stability | 7 | 0.0223235 | excessive deficit | 7 | 0.9970583 |
| 63 | growth pact | 8 | 0.0206834 | sound | 8 | 0.9970187 |
| 63 | sound | 9 | 0.0191018 | deficit | 9 | 0.9958758 |
| 63 | deficit | 10 | 0.0151772 | public finance | 10 | 0.9957927 |
| 63 | budgetary | 11 | 0.0142985 | sound fiscal policy | 11 | 0.9953423 |
| 63 | position | 12 | 0.0140056 | fiscal | 12 | 0.9952465 |
| 63 | public | 13 | 0.0135956 | fiscal policy | 13 | 0.9951613 |
| 63 | strengthen | 14 | 0.0119555 | fiscal position | 14 | 0.9949556 |
| 63 | fiscal consolidation | 15 | 0.0113697 | position | 15 | 0.9949085 |
5.63.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2005-03-23 | 0.480 | fiscal policies and the stability and growth pact i would now like to make a few remarks on fiscal policies. while some progress on fiscal consolidation and the correction of excessive deficits is envisaged in euro area countries’ updated stability programmes, further consolidation in a number of countries is needed. with respect to the stability and growth pact, discussions now need to be brought to a convincing conclusion with an outcome that safeguards fiscal discipline. the fiscal framework enshrined in the treaty and in the stability and growth pact is a cornerstone of economic and monetary union, crucial for the economic rationale and the overall cohesion of emu. as the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament knows, since the beginning of these discus… |
| Lucas Papademos: Presentation of the European Central Bank’s Annual Report for 2004 | Period_1 | 2005-04-28 | 0.437 | the stability and growth pact i should like now to address a number of economic policy issues, starting with the eu fiscal framework. in 2004 the debate concerning a reform of the stability and growth pact intensified, subsequent to the judgement of the european court of justice annulling the conclusions of the ecofin council of november 2003 and following the commission’s proposals to strengthen economic governance and clarify the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure. throughout that debate, the ecb clearly and consistently stated its position, namely that improvements in the implementation of the pact, particularly the strengthening of its “preventive arm”, were possible and, indeed, welcome. at the same time, the ecb warned against any weakening of the pact’s “corrective… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2006 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-07-13 | 0.393 | fiscal policies as regards fiscal policies, the ecb shares the view expressed in the draft resolution that fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long- term growth. in a benign environment, budget balances in 2006 were generally better than expected. it is imperative that forthcoming budget plans build on this favourable outcome, assigning higher than expected revenues to deficit reduction and speeding up progress towards the achievement of medium-term budgetary objectives. the ecb is concerned about recent developments which point to a relaxation of fiscal targets in some countries, the aforementioned risk of pro-cyclical policies and a repetition of past policy mistakes. it is imperative that all governments comply with the provisions … |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2002-07-10 | 0.377 | regarding fiscal policies in the euro area, we have seen some worrying developments in the past few months. against this background we call upon all member countries to honour the commitments made to achieve budgets that are close to balance or in surplus by 2003-04, in compliance with the framework of the stability and growth pact. this is necessary in order to maintain and further strengthen confidence in the policy framework of the euro area and to establish fiscal positions in all countries that allow automatic stabilisers to operate efficiently without endangering sound fiscal positions in the longer term. moreover, governments are encouraged to push ahead with reforms relating to the size and structure of public expenditure and revenue, which will also create room for tax cuts and… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: The introduction of the euro: a (critical) retrospect and a preview | Period_1 | 2002-03-18 | 0.373 | fiscal policy the economic environment with which we at the ecb were confronted was also the day-to-day reality of the fiscal policy-makers in the individual euro area countries. in 2001, mainly as a result of the economic slowdown, the average budgetary balance in the euro area deteriorated for the first time since 1993. automatic stabilisers played a significant role in budgetary outcomes in 2001. major tax cuts also contributed to the deterioration, as they were often implemented without adequate offsetting expenditure restraints. as a result, a large majority of countries failed to meet the budgetary balances targeted in the stability programmes for 2001. by the same token, most countries rightly refrained from introducing a discretionary fiscal relaxation in response to the economi… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2014-09-04 | 0.216 | efforts now clearly need to gain momentum to achieve higher sustainable growth and employment in the euro area. determined structural reforms in product and labour markets as well as action to improve the business environment are warranted. as regards fiscal policies, comprehensive fiscal consolidation in recent years has contributed to reducing budgetary imbalances. euro area countries should not unravel the progress made with fiscal consolidation and should proceed in line with the stability and growth pact. the pact acts as an anchor for confidence, and the existing flexibility within the rules allows the budgetary costs of major structural reforms to be addressed and demand to be supported. there is also leeway to achieve a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies. a full… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Price stability as the basis of a sustained recovery | Period_2 | 2014-07-04 | 0.189 | what are the priorities to restore strong and sustainable growth? governments should not view the current period of low interest rates and favourable market sentiment as an invitation to abandon the path of fiscal prudence, but rather to accelerate reforms aimed at freeing up growth opportunities. first, the crisis has shown that fiscal credibility needs to be earned. delivering on past commitments under the eu framework is essential for this. this means that governments have to continue on their path towards resilient public finances. they should stick to the rules they have agreed under the new eu fiscal framework and not stretch them to the point where the credibility of this framework would be harmed. in the long term, there is no trade-off between growth and sound public finances. … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-12-06 | 0.166 | economic and monetary union to be decided at the european council meeting on 13–14 december 2012. initiatives to accelerate structural reforms that help restore competitiveness are particularly important to revive the growth potential of euro area countries and to increase employment. more generally, all euro area countries must ensure that their product and labour markets possess the adjustment capacity required for their smooth and effective functioning within a monetary union. finally, continued fiscal consolidation is expected to restore sound fiscal positions, in line with the commitments under the stability and growth pact and the 2012 european semester recommendations. significant progress has already been made in reducing domestic and external imbalances and in improving competi… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2015-07-17 | 0.164 | improve the business environment for firms need to gain momentum in several countries. a swift and effective implementation of these reforms, in an environment of accommodative monetary policy, will not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but will also raise expectations of permanently higher incomes. fiscal policies should support the economic recovery while remaining in compliance with the stability and growth pact. full and consistent implementation of the pact is key for confidence in our fiscal framework. we are now at your disposal for questions. |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.164 | what must happen so that euro area finds its way back to sustainable growth? countries should not unravel their budget consolidation efforts, but the consolidation should become more growth-friendly than what we have seen so far. in other words: less current expenditure and lower taxes and more expenditure on infrastructure and on human capital. all this should be accompanied by the implementation of structural reforms. only structural reforms will bring europe back onto a sustainable growth path. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.079 | country is eligible to tpi, it will activate tpi, and, as i said earlier on, there is no ex-ante limit to that programme. now, i’m happy to go through the four specific criteria if any of you are interested. so there are four of them, and i think it’s important that we understand that on this occasion, like on any occasion having to do with either monetary policy stance or monetary policy transmission, the ecb determines in its own discretion, not being hostage to anyone. so the four criteria that it will use will be indicative, will be elements of information that it will take into account in order to make its decision. so the first one is compliance with eu fiscal framework, and that can take one of two forms, either not be in excessive deficit procedure, or having failed to take the … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.066 | sound fiscal policy helps to anchor inflation expectations sound fiscal policy is also a key factor for stabilising debt dynamics. the fiscal support measures taken during the pandemic resulted in a sharp increase in public debt ratios, which were already elevated before the pandemic started. euro area public debt as a ratio to gdp has increased by around 20 percentage points from 2007 to 2019, and by around another 10 percentage points by 2021. initially, higher inflation had a beneficial effect on debt-to-gdp ratios, due to a temporary windfall from the boost in nominal growth (slide 11, left-hand side).[15] |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.059 | confront semiconductor shortages and strengthen europe’s technological leadership”, press release, 8 february. 7. international energy agency (2021), “the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions”. 8. refers to firms which developed or introduced new products, processes or services as part of their investment activities. see european investment bank (2022), investment survey. 9. ferdinandusse, m., nerlich, c., and delgado téllez, m. (2022), “fiscal policies to mitigate climate change in the euro area”, economic bulletin, issue 6, european central bank. 10. darvas, z. and wolff, g.b. (2021), “a green fiscal pact: climate investment in times of budget consolidation”, policy contribution, issue no 18/21, bruegel, september. 11. latest data point q2 2022. based on the methodolo… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.056 | governing council. the new instrument will have to be effective, while being proportionate and containing sufficient safeguards to preserve the impetus of member states towards a sound fiscal policy. this decision lies squarely within the ecb’s tradition. in the past, the ecb has made use of separate instruments to target inflation and to preserve the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. measures to preserve transmission could be used at any level of interest rates – so long as they were designed not to interfere with the monetary policy stance. at times when inflation fell too low, it made sense to shift from “separation” to “combination” so that all tools reinforced the required policy easing. that is why, for example, we linked asset purchases tightly to forward… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.053 | 2.1 a reality check: the financial and sovereign debt crises this weakness was laid bare by the financial crisis. the euro area adopted a flawed policy mix, causing an economic gap to emerge with other major economies. during the crisis, fiscal policies – after intervening for a short space of time to support the economy – procyclically turned towards fiscal consolidation, mainly through uncoordinated interventions inconsistent with the fiscal stance that would have been appropriate at european level. between 2011 and 2013 procyclical fiscal consolidation triggered contractionary forces that turned out to be self- defeating also in terms of debt sustainability. the onus of stabilising the european economy fell on the ecb’s monetary policy alone, forcing the euro area to undergo a slow a… |
The most representative speeches:
5.64 Topic 64: remain; medium; expect; medium term; support
5.64.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | remain | 1 | 0.0272099 | policy relevant | 1 | 0.9981568 |
| 64 | medium | 2 | 0.0267166 | remain firmly | 2 | 0.9974565 |
| 64 | expect | 3 | 0.0231224 | remain firmly anchor | 3 | 0.9963143 |
| 64 | medium term | 4 | 0.0218539 | expect price | 4 | 0.9958666 |
| 64 | support | 5 | 0.0201625 | relevant horizon | 5 | 0.9957382 |
| 64 | govern | 6 | 0.0151589 | policy relevant horizon | 6 | 0.9956473 |
| 64 | analysis | 7 | 0.0150884 | firmly | 7 | 0.9956142 |
| 64 | expectation | 8 | 0.0138904 | firmly anchor | 8 | 0.9947855 |
| 64 | govern council | 9 | 0.0136085 | economic datum | 9 | 0.9929275 |
| 64 | council | 10 | 0.0131856 | expect price stability | 10 | 0.9921937 |
| 64 | continue | 11 | 0.0129037 | govern council aim | 11 | 0.9919561 |
| 64 | inflation expectation | 12 | 0.0118466 | rate remain | 12 | 0.9918473 |
| 64 | firmly | 13 | 0.0116352 | term remain | 13 | 0.9916092 |
| 64 | anchor | 14 | 0.0109305 | expectation remain firmly | 14 | 0.9915513 |
| 64 | relevant | 15 | 0.0098029 | council aim | 15 | 0.9914729 |
5.64.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2010-02-05 | 0.536 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference today. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the current rates remain appropriate. taking into account all the information and analyses that have become available since our meeting on 14 january 2010, price developments are expected to remain subdued over the policy- relevant horizon. the latest information has also confirmed that euro area economic activity continued to expand around the turn of the year. looking ahead, the governing council expects the euro area economy to grow at a moderate pace in 2010. the recove… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2010-05-07 | 0.496 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference here in lisbon. i would like to thank governor constâncio for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of this meeting. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the current rates remain appropriate. taking into account all new information since our meeting on 8 april 2010, we expect price developments to remain moderate over the policy-relevant horizon. global inflationary pressures – driven mainly by price developments in commodity markets and in fast-growing eco… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2010-01-20 | 0.477 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our first press conference in 2010. let me take this opportunity to wish you all a happy new year. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by commissioner almunia. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the current rates remain appropriate. taking into account all the information and analyses that have become available since our meeting on 3 december 2009, price developments are expected to remain subdued over the policy- relevant horizon. the latest information has also confirmed that towards the end of 2009 euro area economic activity continued to expan… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2010-08-11 | 0.471 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council views the current key ecb interest rates as appropriate. it therefore decided to leave them unchanged. considering all the new information which has become available since our meeting on 8 july 2010, we continue to expect price developments to remain moderate over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, benefiting from low domestic price pressures. the available economic data and survey-based indicators suggest a strengthening in economic activity in the second quarter of 2010, and the available data for the third quarter are better than expected. looking f… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-11-06 | 0.461 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference today. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by commissioner almunia. on the basis of its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to leave the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the current rates remain appropriate. the incoming information and analyses that have become available since our meeting in early october have confirmed our expectations. while annual hicp inflation was -0.1% in october, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, it is expected to turn positive again in the coming months and to remain at moderately positive rates over the policy-relevant horizon. at the same time, the lat… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-01-13 | 0.102 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. let me wish you all a happy new year. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided today to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged, following the 25 basis point decreases on 3 november and 8 december 2011. the information that has become available since early december broadly confirms our previous assessment. inflation is likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%. at the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate. as expected, ongoing financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in th… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-11-09 | 0.101 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, inflation rates are likely to remain above 2% for the remainder of 2012. they are expected to fall below that level in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. inflation expectations for the euro area remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintainin… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-07-18 | 0.098 | inadequate implementation of structural reforms in the member states and weaker than expected domestic demand. looking at price developments, we see that euro area hicp inflation declined sharply from late 2011 to october last year, and has since been fluctuating around very low levels below 1%. according to the latest data (eurostat’s flash estimate), euro area annual hicp inflation stood at 0.5% in june 2014, unchanged from may. annual hicp inflation is expected to remain at low levels over coming months, before increasing gradually in 2015 and 2016. at the same time, medium to long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability. upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments are both seen as limited and broadly balanced over the mediu… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-10-05 | 0.096 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. i would like to thank governor kranjec for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, inflation rates are expected to remain above 2% throughout 2012, but then to fall below that level again in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. consistent with this picture, the underlying… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Financial Times | Period_2 | 2013-12-12 | 0.087 | the european central bank has forecast inflation of 1.3 per cent in 2015, which is usually seen as the policy-relevant horizon. how can you justify not doing more now when inflation is forecast to be almost a third below your target two years from now? we aim at an inflation rate of close but below 2% over the medium term. given the subdued outlook for prices, we are already doing a lot. we have cut rates. since july 2012 our overnight rate has been in general lower than that controlled by any other major central bank. we have offered our forward guidance. we have extended the conduct of our main refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures full allotment until at least 7 july 2015. so, after a prolonged period of low inflation, we would expect inflation rates to return back t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.085 | our forward guidance provides protection against the risks of too low inflation by setting clear conditions that prevent a premature tightening. a full risk-management approach ensures that policy also remains sufficiently robust when the risk distribution is increasingly skewed in the other direction, so as to ensure that inflation expectations remain firmly anchored at our target. at present, upside risks to inflation largely stem from two sources. first, a too narrow focus on the supply side of the economy. by all likelihood, the output gap in the euro area will turn positive next year and will be significantly positive in 2023 and beyond, with |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.060 | but by the end of 2022, we expect consumption to be almost 3% above its pre-pandemic level. and if that positive outlook is appropriately supported by the right policy mix, it could produce a virtuous circle, where people become more optimistic, upgrade their expectations of future income, and then spend more of the savings they have built up. this would help close the output gap from the demand side and put upward pressures on wages. at the same time, there are forces that point to a slower pick-up in services inflation. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.054 | monetary policy must stay focused on price stability fiscal policy is hence at risk of contributing to inflation at a time when price pressures remain unabated. inflation in the euro area has continued to surprise on the upside, and significantly so. while fears of a technical recession have increased, economic data surprises have recently also turned positive (slide 13, left-hand side). in this situation, monetary policy must remain firmly focused on its mandate and restore price stability as quickly as possible. determined policy action by the ecb has already led to a notable tightening of financing conditions. euro area real gdp-weighted sovereign yields have increased across the maturity spectrum since the turnaround in monetary policy in december 2021. yet, real rates remain in neg… |
| Christine Lagarde: Commitment and persistence - monetary policy in the economic recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.048 | our review confirmed that we see negative and positive deviations from our 2% inflation target as equally undesirable. but for inflation to return sustainably to target when interest rates are near the effective lower bound, we need to be persistent in our monetary policy. in particular, we must not rush into a premature tightening when faced with passing or supply-driven inflation shocks. in the words of abraham lincoln, “commitment is what transforms a promise into a reality” — and this is the spirit we need to ensure that we reach our 2% target on a durable basis. at a time when purchasing power is already being squeezed by higher energy and fuel bills, an undue tightening would represent an unwarranted headwind for the recovery. however, as positive demand forces in the economy gain… |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.046 | monetary policy decisions to support a timely return of inflation to 2%, our monetary policy aims to reduce support for demand and to ensure inflation expectations remain anchored at our medium-term target. accordingly, we decided to raise the three key ecb interest rates by 75 basis points in october – the third major rate hike in a row – and we expect to raise interest rates again. |
The most representative speeches:
5.65 Topic 65: asset; asset price; bubble; boom; credit
5.65.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | asset | 1 | 0.1066404 | asset price | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 65 | asset price | 2 | 0.0722477 | bubble | 2 | 0.9996496 |
| 65 | bubble | 3 | 0.0312985 | boom | 3 | 0.9996495 |
| 65 | boom | 4 | 0.0263524 | price bubble | 4 | 0.9984658 |
| 65 | credit | 5 | 0.0250871 | bust | 5 | 0.9982467 |
| 65 | imbalance | 6 | 0.0212913 | estate | 6 | 0.9980725 |
| 65 | financial | 7 | 0.0157700 | real estate | 7 | 0.9980724 |
| 65 | development | 8 | 0.0147348 | asset price bubble | 8 | 0.9980275 |
| 65 | risk | 9 | 0.0127794 | financial imbalance | 9 | 0.9978534 |
| 65 | house | 10 | 0.0123193 | lean | 10 | 0.9977210 |
| 65 | real | 11 | 0.0113991 | price boom | 11 | 0.9975449 |
| 65 | financial imbalance | 12 | 0.0113991 | asset | 12 | 0.9971885 |
| 65 | estate | 13 | 0.0110540 | asset price boom | 13 | 0.9971066 |
| 65 | real estate | 14 | 0.0109390 | wind | 14 | 0.9968459 |
| 65 | identify | 15 | 0.0101338 | imbalance | 15 | 0.9961362 |
5.65.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-06-14 | 0.500 | some stylized facts about asset price boom periods and monetary policy let me now turn to present some empirical stylized facts about asset price bubbles. my goal is then to focus on the link to monetary policy. a number of researchers have devoted some efforts to analyzing historical boom-busts cycles in asset prices in order to detect regularities with regard to the costliness of booms, and to assess the potential for identifying dangerous booms at an early stage. different studies emphasize different aspects, and use different methodologies. however, they coincide on pointing out a range of characteristics, and i would like to call your attention to some of them. a recently conducted imf study acknowledges the importance of housing price booms and compares equity and housing bust per… |
| Jürgen Stark: Main challenges for monetary policy in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2008-03-31 | 0.383 | fourth, although central banks can influence asset prices by means of monetary policy actions, the relatively large swings in policy rates that could be needed to curb boom and bust cycles in asset prices could pose a significant threat to macroeconomic stability in the short term. building on these generally agreed conclusions, two possible monetary policy approaches have been suggested. on the one hand, some argue that central banks should lean against asset price bubbles, as such bubbles have the potential to create lasting distortions in the economy. in a world in which asset price bubbles are very difficult to identify and the curbing of boom and bust cycles in asset prices can prove very costly in terms of inflation and output, leaning against a possible bubble can be seen as an i… |
| Juergen Stark: In search of a robust monetary policy framework | Period_1 | 2010-11-25 | 0.376 | traditionally, however, there has been a great deal of scepticism about “leaning against the wind” for at least four reasons. 10 first, it has been argued that it is not evident that asset price boom-bust cycles are necessarily a bad thing for real long-term growth in all countries. the benefits from the realisation of additional investment projects could, on average, outweigh the costs incurred during the bust phases. second, as i have already mentioned, it is considered very difficult to identify an asset price bubble in real time. in particular, a tight policy response to asset price increases may end up destabilising the economy unnecessarily if the asset price valuation is driven by fundamentals. third, it has been claimed that the policy interest rate is “too blunt a tool” to cont… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-06-14 | 0.361 | leaning against the wind the leaning against the wind principle describes a tendency to cautiously raise interest rates even beyond the level necessary to maintain price stability over the short to medium run, when a potentially detrimental asset price boom is identified. the basic assumption behind the leaning against the wind principle is a non-linearity best described as an asymmetric effect of positive and negative asset price shocks. a negative shock is likely to have a larger effect than a positive one. the reasons are that credit constraints can depend on the value of collateral and that in case of a financial crisis the whole financial intermediation process can in the worst case completely fail. the central bank conducts a slightly tighter policy in order to better ensure price… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-06-14 | 0.348 | times of low risk premia.3 the claim can be derived in a most standard stock valuation model, where the price-dividend ratio is a convex function of the mean dividend growth rate. the mean dividend growth rate in turn depends obviously on future expected earnings of the company. heightened uncertainty about future earnings, will increase the price dividend ratio. it has further been claimed that assuming apparently reasonable parameter values with regard to the discount rate, expected earnings growth and most importantly the variance of expected earnings growth, one can reproduce the nasdaq valuation of the late 90s and its volatility. there would thus be no reason to refer to a dotcom bubble. i do not mention this example because i believe the nasdaq valuation of the late 90s has not b… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy - reality or fiction? | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.292 | it is normal for asset prices to rise during phases of low interest rates. equity prices, for example, reflect firms’ discounted earnings expectations. if the interest rate falls, equity prices will go up, because future earnings will have a greater bearing on current valuations. however, earnings expectations themselves also tend to increase when interest rates are lowered, because investors anticipate stronger economic growth. and, indeed, the current price/earnings ratio in the euro area is a long way off from the excesses of the dotcom bubble of 2000, and it is closer to its historical median than in other economies (slide 25, left-hand side). nonetheless, central banks need to keep a close eye on such valuations, as purely liquidity-driven price gains can result in risks for financ… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.200 | prior to the crisis, there was a common view that central banks should focus on inflation stabilisation and only care about financial developments should these have direct implications for inflation dynamics. another view was that by ensuring price stability, monetary policy would also cater for financial stability. the crisis proved that this was not true as a period of moderate inflation coincided with the build‐up of financial imbalances and asset price bubbles. it was hard to argue that conventional monetary policy using interest rates could and should be used to address those imbalances or prick asset price bubbles. indeed, it is difficult to identify bubbles and virtually impossible to calibrate interest rates to produce the desired effects on asset prices. in many cases, the requ… |
| Jürgen Stark: Globalisation and monetary policy - from virtue to vice? | Period_2 | 2011-11-30 | 0.180 | moreover, the record shows that as far back as 2004 both policymakers and academics were alerting on some of the emerging tail risks which have subsequently materialised. to name a few examples, borio and white (2004)24 cautioned on the greater prominence of credit and asset price boom-and-bust cycles even in a low inflation environment; rajan (2005)25 did a careful review of some worrying trends associated with globalised financial markets; and rogoff (2006)26 noted that the “great moderation” had not been associated with lower asset price volatility. the record also shows that monetary authorities echoed many of these and other concerns (such as the possible disorderly unwinding of global imbalances) in their public discourse, including through speeches and official publications27. th… |
| Yves Mersch: Speaking points for an event organised by MNI Connect | Period_2 | 2016-10-13 | 0.158 | is expected to rise to 1.2% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018 with a significant contribution coming from our measures taken since june 2014, namely 0.5 percentage points per year. overall, the implementation of our measures has been smooth. some considerations regarding our measures notwithstanding the effectiveness of our measures, we also need to consider their potential side-effects. a protracted period of low interest rates weigh on banks’ profitability via lower net interest income and this can potentially impinge on the transmission of monetary policy given the key role played by banks. although, banks on the whole, have been able to weather the declining margins by increasing lending volumes, lowering provisioning needs and attaining capital gains from their fixed income holdings. that b… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy - reality or fiction? | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.154 | the european capital markets union can play a significant role here. monetary policy and asset price bubbles the last narrative i would like to discuss this evening is the claim that loose monetary policy leads to price bubbles in the financial and real estate markets. fears that monetary policy entails risks for financial stability should indeed be taken very seriously. in fact, one objective of the current expansionary monetary policy is to revive risk appetite among investors, and thus promote growth and investment activity. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.105 | equity and housing markets equity markets in the euro area have largely moved sideways after the sharp correction experienced at the onset of russia’s invasion of ukraine (chart 15). that correction was mostly driven by downward revisions in longer-term earnings expectations amid mounting recession fears. since then, equity markets have been driven by two largely offsetting factors: while rising risk-free discount rates in the context of monetary policy normalisation have put downward pressure on equity valuations, lower equity risk premia have worked in the opposite direction. if equity risk premia were to increase in the context of a slowing economy, tighter financial conditions and elevated uncertainty, the correction in equity markets would be sharper than experienced so far. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.103 | this analysis draws from a bvar model that decomposes asset price movements into underlying drivers based on cross-asset price restrictions. for more details see brandt, l., schroder, m., saint guilhem, a., and van robays, i. (2021), “what drives euro area financial market developments? the role of us spillovers and global risk”, working paper series, no 2560, ecb, may. |
| Luis de Guindos: Euro area current policy challenges | Period_3 | 2022-09-16 | 0.093 | vulnerabilities in euro area residential real estate markets are also rising in light of continued price increases and vigorous mortgage lending growth. in the first quarter of 2022 euro area residential real estate price growth stood at 9.8%, the highest nominal growth rate since the early 1990s. however, since the beginning of the year, household survey responses on the intention to buy a house have declined, and banks have lowered their expectations regarding mortgage loan demand, pointing to a greater potential for house price corrections. turning to financial institutions, vulnerabilities in the non-bank financial sector have also increased this year. the risk that forced selling by investment funds could amplify a market correction remains high, amid low liquidity buffers. duratio… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.091 | ten-year euro area gdp-weighted sovereign yield spread over ois refinitiv, bloomberg and ecb calculations. note: the latest observation is for 25 march 2022. in a monetary union that lacks an area-wide common safe asset, flight-to-safety episodes have a geographic dimension, in view of the high substitutability across national financial systems that is enabled by the absence of currency risk.[6] the nature of such episodes is that heightened risk aversion not only may involve a reassessment of the pricing of fundamentals-based risks but also may induce a self-fulfilling withdrawal to so-called safe haven jurisdictions in the belief that other investors may also opt to make the same geographic reallocation decision. in the absence of active market stabilisation by the central bank, the i… |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.075 | and sectors in the euro area. it fine-tunes the overall policy mix and complements the single monetary policy in support of overall financial stability across the euro area. despite the overall good resilience of the euro area banking sector, certain countries have in recent years seen a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, notably related to residential real estate prices and growing household and firm indebtedness. some further careful and targeted tightening of macroprudential policy would be beneficial in selected countries at present. given the deteriorated outlook for economic growth, some countries might benefit from further increasing the resilience of their financial sectors before credit risks start materialising. this includes for example taking measures to preserve capital… |
The most representative speeches:
5.66 Topic 66: negative; fall; deflation; zero; positive
5.66.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | negative | 1 | 0.0602311 | deflation | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 66 | fall | 2 | 0.0589163 | zero | 2 | 0.9993867 |
| 66 | deflation | 3 | 0.0477405 | territory | 3 | 0.9988604 |
| 66 | zero | 4 | 0.0387998 | bind | 4 | 0.9983348 |
| 66 | positive | 5 | 0.0348554 | deflationary | 5 | 0.9982470 |
| 66 | bind | 6 | 0.0344610 | negative territory | 6 | 0.9980706 |
| 66 | inflation rate | 7 | 0.0282814 | disinflation | 7 | 0.9976343 |
| 66 | risk | 8 | 0.0277555 | prolong | 8 | 0.9975464 |
| 66 | close | 9 | 0.0213130 | negative | 9 | 0.9973647 |
| 66 | level | 10 | 0.0206556 | prolong period | 10 | 0.9972838 |
| 66 | prolong | 11 | 0.0189463 | negative inflation | 11 | 0.9972335 |
| 66 | territory | 12 | 0.0180260 | fall | 12 | 0.9971895 |
| 66 | bring | 13 | 0.0178945 | positive | 13 | 0.9968399 |
| 66 | period | 14 | 0.0172371 | spiral | 14 | 0.9959697 |
| 66 | cut | 15 | 0.0172371 | cut | 15 | 0.9959231 |
5.66.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-01-29 | 0.198 | medium-term price developments and the process of disinflation let me now look more closely at the medium-term outlook for price developments in the euro area, and in particular at the process of disinflation we are currently observing. i will thereby address the first topic proposed. it is essential here to draw a clear distinction between disinflation and deflation. disinflation is a process of falling inflation rates. this process often stems from cost-saving developments on the supply side or terms of trade improvements. such developments can sometimes go hand in hand with negative demand shocks as is the case at present. however, they are per se benign in nature. this is because they sustain real incomes. in the current context, we are witnessing a process of disinflation in the eu… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the European economy and the ECB’s monetary policy concept | Period_1 | 2004-07-20 | 0.196 | the may 2003 clarification: “hicp inflation below but close to 2%” at the same time, we felt the need to convey even more clearly to the public that the governing council does not view all positive inflation rates of below 2% as equally desirable. on 8 may 2003 we made it clear that, in order to fulfil its price stability objective, the governing council aims to maintain hicp inflation below but close to 2% over the medium term. this was fully in line with our past practice and with medium-term market expectations. thus, the announcement did not change inflation expectations. the main argument for maintaining a low positive rate of inflation is that it helps to reduce to very low levels the probability that nominal interest rates will approach their lower bound of zero. obviously, the l… |
| Jürgen Stark: Delivering price stability - benefits and challenges | Period_1 | 2007-12-04 | 0.190 | why should central banks tolerate small positive rates of inflation? this insight brings me to my first question to experts. inflation is a tax on nominal wealth, so if asked individually about whether that tax should be positive or zero – or even negative, thus becoming a subsidy – agents in the economy would tend to choose the lowest possible tax. but assuming that the economy faces various frictions, and that those frictions interact with zero or negative inflation in ways that might be costly for the economy as a whole, theory argues that a “benign optimizer” would not necessarily opt for a zero or negative inflation tax. how are we to weigh inflation costs to individual agents against the benefits of price stability – defined as low but positive inflation – as an insurance mechanis… |
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.184 | rationales for aiming for positive inflation (1): the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates the first argument is that maintaining a low positive rate of inflation reduces to very low levels the probability that nominal interest rates will approach their lower bound at zero. the event of nominal interest rates hitting the zero lower bound is linked to an increased uncertainty about the effectiveness of monetary policy. if this event were to coincide with a strong decline in demand, such a situation could complicate the central bank’s ability to avoid a deflationary episode. examples where countries reached the lower bound for nominal interest rates are rare. and even if this event were to materialise, a number of effective monetary policy actions are still possible at zero nominal… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Careful with (the D) words! | Period_1 | 2008-11-27 | 0.180 | scenario, expectations of price changes turn negative and induce agents to postpone consumption and investment decisions. it’s the negative inflation expectations that pushes the (ex-ante) real interest rate up, even when the nominal interest rate is brought down to zero, above its equilibrium level. it is not clear what could push agents to expect negative inflation, and thereby enter a deflation scenario, rather than a standard disinflation. one possibility is that agents are not fully rational and form adaptive expectations. as they observe the start of the disinflation, with a negative inflation rate necessary to achieve the new equilibrium, they may think that the negative price change is likely to persist for some time. negative inflation expectations might thus become entrenched…. |
| Peter Praet: Steering the economy in a challenging environment | Period_2 | 2013-11-19 | 0.194 | potential if it falls into a self-sustaining deflationary spiral. if prices are expected to fall, demand will be deferred to a future point in time when prices will be lower. but the fact is: that point in time will never come. and demand, income and production will keep falling with prices. in may 2003, the governing council went beyond this numerical characterisation of price stability. the governing council provided more clarity on its policy orientation within the range. indeed, while all positive inflation rates below 2% may be equally attractive from a pure – and narrowly static – welfare perspective, additional considerations regarding the dynamic stability of the macroeconomic system argued for selecting some specific values within the range. this is why in may 2003 it was decid… |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy lessons from the financial crisis - some remarks | Period_2 | 2015-09-28 | 0.182 |
|
| Peter Praet: Economic developments in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-02-12 | 0.179 | the deteriorating inflation situation in parallel, the inflation gap had widened as the inflation outlook had materially worsened towards the end of last year. when we took the decision in january most indicators of realised and expected inflation in the euro area stood at, or close to, their historical lows. while the main driver of inflation developments in the months before was the sharp fall of global oil prices, the conditions we faced made this shock different from a classic positive supply shock, and we could not afford to “look through” the effects on inflation. indeed, several factors suggested that the present situation was more worrying than past episodes of oil-induced disinflation, particularly the most recent case in 2009 following the collapse of lehman brothers. first, t… |
| Philip R Lane: Low inflation - macroeconomic risks and the monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.158 | one danger is that low inflation that persists over the longer term provides only a small buffer against deflation: if inflation is low, it only takes a relatively small shock to tip the economy into deflation. the macroeconomic implications of deflation are well known. first, the expectation of falling prices delays purchases and investment. second, the combination of falling output prices and downwardly rigid nominal wages damages the profitability of businesses and reduces the demand for labour. third, deflation means that the real burden of nominal debt increases over time, making debt repayments more difficult for households, firms and governments. however, even in the absence of pronounced risks of deflation, there are substantial macroeconomic costs to persistently undershooting … |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Süddeutsche Zeitung | Period_2 | 2015-02-02 | 0.155 | mr praet, the ecb has decided to spend €1.1 trillion on purchases of government bonds. has the euro area now become safer? i expect economic growth to develop along favourable lines in the coming months. the low oil price and neutral fiscal stance will help, financial markets are more confident, the exchange rate of the euro will support exports and structural economic reforms are having positive effects in some countries. all is not perfect, but thanks also to our decision, there will be a positive impact on the economy. the ecb is buying government bonds to boost inflation and thereby economic growth. are low petrol prices bad? that is a natural argument. when petrol prices are falling, people are happy. however, monetary policy does not focus on individual prices, but rather on the o… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.071 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.066 | so how can we evaluate the medium-term balance of risks from today’s standpoint? risks of persistent inflation dynamics to begin with, we need to assess whether we are likely to see propagation mechanisms that could transform the current price level shock into destabilising inflation dynamics, in particular a wage-price spiral. typically, a sustained increase in wages requires the economy to be operating persistently above potential. this is not currently the case in the euro area. estimates of the output gap suggest that it will take time before it is convincingly positive (chart 6, left-hand side). |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.058 | the second reason for optimism concerns the services sector. contact-intensive services have rebounded sharply since the spring and have remained an important source of growth since then. but activity in these sectors has not yet fully returned to its pre-crisis level. by the end of the third quarter, value added in contact-intensive services was still approximately 8% below its pre-pandemic level (slide 7, right-hand chart).©! new or existing containment measures and labour shortages mean that activity will only resume gradually. but as the pandemic abates and economies reopen further, activity in more contact- intensive services is likely to keep expanding. all in all, stagnation looks like a distant threat — a view that is shared by most of the forecasting community. according to con… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.050 | our monetary policy decisions have also contributed to substantially raising real rates over most horizons beyond the very short term. for instance, the forward real rate at the 1yr1yr horizon has gone up by about 300 bps since december 2021 (chart 11). while this increase in the near term has primarily been driven by the real expectations component embedded in forward real rates, longer-term real forward rates increased mostly due to higher real term premia. furthermore, the 10-year real overnight index swap (ois) rate recently edged into positive territory – to levels not seen for over a decade.[34] these positive levels are particularly remarkable as the whole term structure of euro area real rates had been negative for many years reflecting a host of domestic and global factors. |
| Christine Lagarde: New challenges in a changing world | Period_3 | 2023-01-24 | 0.048 | the third big challenge facing europe is the high inflation environment. and this, of course, is the challenge that concerns me the most. inflation in europe is far too high, partly due to our vulnerability to the changing geopolitics of energy. decoupling from russia last year pushed up energy inflation in the euro area to extraordinary levels. but while energy inflation has recently been coming down, underlying inflation continues to rise. as a result, it is vital that inflation rates above the ecb’s 2% target do not become entrenched in the economy. we must bring inflation down. and we will deliver on this goal. in less than half a year, we have raised the ecb interest rates by 250 basis points, the fastest increase in our history. and we have made it clear that ecb interest rates wi… |
The most representative speeches:
5.67 Topic 67: energy; supply; rise; cent; energy price
5.67.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | energy | 1 | 0.0810572 | bottleneck | 1 | 0.9991234 |
| 67 | supply | 2 | 0.0473755 | energy price | 2 | 0.9982467 |
| 67 | rise | 3 | 0.0329555 | supply bottleneck | 3 | 0.9980248 |
| 67 | cent | 4 | 0.0317977 | chain | 4 | 0.9979849 |
| 67 | energy price | 5 | 0.0314819 | cent | 5 | 0.9977190 |
| 67 | demand | 6 | 0.0204301 | energy | 6 | 0.9976289 |
| 67 | cost | 7 | 0.0177987 | energy cost | 7 | 0.9971464 |
| 67 | service | 8 | 0.0173777 | disruption | 8 | 0.9971087 |
| 67 | pandemic | 9 | 0.0168514 | supply chain | 9 | 0.9968399 |
| 67 | bottleneck | 10 | 0.0160093 | industrial good | 10 | 0.9968390 |
| 67 | good | 11 | 0.0130622 | supply | 11 | 0.9966608 |
| 67 | food | 12 | 0.0130622 | reopen | 12 | 0.9964023 |
| 67 | expect | 13 | 0.0124307 | gas | 13 | 0.9957507 |
| 67 | chain | 14 | 0.0123254 | shortage | 14 | 0.9955317 |
| 67 | production | 15 | 0.0122202 | energy industrial good | 15 | 0.9949464 |
5.67.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy in a changing world ¿ commitment, strategy and credibility | Period_1 | 2006-12-07 | 0.082 | integration into the global market economy of emerging asia and of the former socialist countries in central and eastern europe. in fact, the share of both regions in world exports has essentially doubled over the past 15 years to 22% and 4%, respectively. globalisation affects the functioning of the world economy and of the national economies through many channels and in various ways. today, i will concentrate on its effects on inflation, which are both direct and indirect. the increasing economic opening up of many countries has led to the emergence of two major and fairly direct effects on world inflation dynamics, which partly offset each other. on one hand, raw materials and basic commodities, most importantly oil and other sources of energy, have become scarcer relative to world d… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.081 | i price stability: current situation and prospects let me first share with you some reflections on the prospects for price stability. starting with the current situation, euro area hicp inflation has remained at a high level since last autumn. this spike in euro area hicp inflation had its origins in external forces, in particular the very strong global rise in several commodity prices – notably those of energy and food. given the magnitude of these increases in global commodity prices, there has been a sizeable direct pass-through into the food and energy components of inflation. much of the ongoing inflationary pressure at this stage also derives from the indirect effects on inflation of cost pressures in the production chain. in addition, there is a concern that second-round effects … |
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.073 | you said there were no monetary risks of inflation at the moment. can we infer from today’s decision that there were monetary risks of deflation or is it purely a growth-oriented decision that you have taken today? duisenberg: no, we also see no risks of deflation emerging. we see that inflation has now remained, on a euro area-wide basis, constant at a rate of 0.8% four months in a row up to now. we see some risks on the upside, i.e. mainly the impact of rising energy prices, but that is by definition, as it was when it was on the downside, a temporary factor. we see some risks deriving from some wage settlements here and there in europe, those are the upside risks. we see some downside risks from a rather subdued outlook for general economic development in the entire euro area. but as… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy in challenging times | Period_1 | 2008-06-06 | 0.054 | first of all, let me say that i am in the purdah period, so that nothing i will say should be interpreted in any respect as signalling intentions of the governing council as regards the monetary policy stance. economic policymakers are currently grappling to understand the root, duration sand impact of a number of significant and sizeable shocks affecting the world economy, including rising commodity prices – of which sharp increases in world food and oil prices have been prominent components – as well as a period of prolonged financial turbulences associated with an adjustment in financial market perceptions of risk. understanding those economic shocks and how they affect the economy is plainly a vital challenge for policymakers. in my remarks today, i would like to stress that, rather… |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.054 | curves. a reduced correlation – or even a lack of it – could simply be a consequence of the effective monetary policies of central banks which have succeeded in anchoring inflation expectations to price stability. 11 direct effect of globalisation on domestic inflation the two more direct effects of globalisation on world and domestic inflation dynamics have been more visible but have partly offset each other, and the relative impact may be changing over time. on the one hand, raw materials and basic commodities, notably oil and other sources of energy, have become scarcer relative to world demand, leading to substantial upward pressure on prices. [see chart 1] for example, brent crude oil prices have increased almost tenfold over the last nine years, reflecting to a very large extent t… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-06-10 | 0.189 | overall, we see the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook as broadly balanced. on the one hand, an even stronger recovery could be predicated on brighter prospects for global demand and a faster-than-anticipated reduction in household savings once social and travel restrictions have been lifted. on the other hand, the ongoing pandemic, including the spread of virus mutations, and its implications for economic and financial conditions continue to be sources of downside risk. according to eurostat’s flash release, euro area annual inflation increased from 1.3 per cent in march to 1.6 per cent in april and 2.0 per cent in may 2021. this rise was due mainly to a strong increase in energy price inflation, reflecting both sizeable upward base effects as well as month- on-month increa… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-07-22 | 0.155 | though supply bottlenecks are holding back production in the near term. the reopening of large parts of the economy is supporting a vigorous bounce-back in the services sector. but the delta variant of the coronavirus could dampen this recovery in services, especially in tourism and hospitality. as people return to shops and restaurants and resume travelling, consumer spending is rising. better job prospects, increasing confidence and continued government support are reinforcing spending. the ongoing recovery in domestic and global demand is boosting optimism among businesses. this supports investment. for the first time since the start of the pandemic, our bank lending survey indicates that funding of fixed investment is an important factor driving the demand for loans to firms. we exp… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2021-06-22 | 0.140 | christine lagarde: hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament (by videoconference), frankfurt am main, 21 june 2021. * * * dear chair, honourable members of the economic and monetary affairs committee, ladies and gentlemen, i am very happy to appear before this committee again today. while we are still meeting in a virtual setting, the health situation and economic prospects across europe have improved on the back of significant progress in vaccinations − with more than 100 million people in the european union now fully vaccinated. this makes me hopeful that we will me… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for global economic growth | Period_2 | 2014-06-02 | 0.129 | global level have led to increased efforts towards bilateral and regional deals, the recent impetus towards trade growth seems to have lessened. a second factor stems from waning integration through global supply chains. anecdotal evidence suggests that in the wake of a series of supply disruptions, firms are aiming to reduce the complexity and length of their supply chains. perhaps, therefore, we might be approaching some natural limits of global trade integration. this would have profound implications for the global economy. for euro area countries, which are highly open to trade and where an important component of the recovery remains driven – for now – by external factors, the prospects for trade are also crucial. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-01-21 | 0.118 | euro area annual inflation remained unchanged at -0.3 per cent in december. on the basis of current energy price dynamics, headline inflation is likely to increase in the coming months, also supported by the end of the temporary vat reduction in germany. however, underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued owing to weak demand, notably in the tourism and travel-related sectors, as well as to low wage pressures and the appreciation of the euro exchange rate. once the impact of the pandemic fades, a recovery in demand, supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, will put upward pressure https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2021/html/ecb.is210121~e601112a72.en.html 2/4 |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.388 | inflation inflation increased further to 8.6 per cent in june. surging energy prices were again the most important component of overall inflation. market-based indicators suggest that global energy prices will stay high in the near term. food inflation also rose further, standing at 8.9 per cent in june, in part reflecting the importance of ukraine and russia as producers of agricultural goods. persistent supply bottlenecks for industrial goods and recovering demand, especially in the services sector, are also contributing to the current high rates of inflation. price pressures are spreading across more and more sectors, in part owing to the indirect impact of high energy costs across the whole economy. accordingly, most measures of underlying inflation have risen further. we expect inf… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.353 | inflation is also being fuelled by the global shift in consumer spending from services to manufactured goods at a time when the pandemic has disrupted production. this has translated into global supply chain bottlenecks, high durable goods prices and strong pipeline pressures. this effect, which also represents a supply shock for the euro area, is now being reabsorbed, but at a different pace in different economies (chart 6). these global supply-driven increases in prices — above all energy and industrial goods, but also food — explain a good part of the currently high headline inflation (chart 7, left panel). |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-09-08 | 0.346 | inflation inflation rose further to 9.1 per cent in august. energy price inflation remained extremely elevated, at 38.3 per cent, and it was again the dominant component of overall inflation. market-based indicators suggest that, in the near term, oil prices will moderate, while wholesale gas prices will stay extraordinarily high. food price inflation also rose in august, to 10.6 per cent, partly reflecting higher input costs related to energy, disruptions of trade in food commodities and adverse weather conditions. while supply bottlenecks have been easing, these continue to gradually feed through to consumer prices and are putting upward pressure on inflation, as is recovering demand in the services sector. the depreciation of the euro has also added to the build-up of inflationary pr… |
| Christine Lagarde: Finding resilience in times of uncertainty | Period_3 | 2022-03-31 | 0.320 | not been so easy to restart supply after the lockdowns triggered by the virus. that has caused a global mismatch between surging demand and constrained supply, leading to shortages and supply chain disruptions. given the interconnectedness of the world economy, this has cascaded across markets, creating strong inflationary pressures. since june last year, for example, energy and food have accounted for, on average, around two- thirds of inflation in the euro area. this reflects, in part, the decision by opec+ to cut oil supply by 9.7 million barrels per day in 2020, followed by the failure of some members to return supply to its previous levels. that has in turn contributed to the rising price of natural gas, which has flowed into food prices, by making fertiliser more expensive, and in… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.316 | inflation inflation rose further to 8.1 per cent in may. although governments have intervened and have helped slow energy inflation, energy prices stand 39.2 per cent above their levels one year ago. market-based indicators suggest that global energy prices will stay high in the near term but will then moderate to some extent. food prices rose 7.5 per cent in may, in part reflecting the importance of ukraine and russia among the main global producers of agricultural goods. prices have also gone up more strongly because of renewed supply bottlenecks and because of recovering domestic demand, especially in the services sector, as our economy reopens. price rises are becoming more widespread across sectors. accordingly, measures of underlying inflation have been rising further. the labour … |
The most representative speeches:
5.68 Topic 68: hicp; hicp inflation; annual; inflation rate; annual hicp inflation
5.68.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | hicp | 1 | 0.0674700 | hicp inflation | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 68 | hicp inflation | 2 | 0.0574408 | annual hicp inflation | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 68 | annual | 3 | 0.0526613 | annual hicp | 3 | 0.9993866 |
| 68 | inflation rate | 4 | 0.0344049 | hicp | 4 | 0.9992986 |
| 68 | annual hicp inflation | 5 | 0.0318976 | flash | 5 | 0.9989484 |
| 68 | annual hicp | 6 | 0.0315059 | flash estimate | 6 | 0.9984222 |
| 68 | month | 7 | 0.0247675 | annual | 7 | 0.9980701 |
| 68 | energy | 8 | 0.0221035 | eurostat flash | 8 | 0.9978958 |
| 68 | estimate | 9 | 0.0188910 | eurostat | 9 | 0.9978097 |
| 68 | flash | 10 | 0.0177157 | eurostat flash estimate | 10 | 0.9976767 |
| 68 | decline | 11 | 0.0175590 | inflation rate | 11 | 0.9971032 |
| 68 | accord | 12 | 0.0170105 | hicp inflation rate | 12 | 0.9964903 |
| 68 | eurostat | 13 | 0.0169322 | annual inflation | 13 | 0.9963618 |
| 68 | increase | 14 | 0.0162270 | accord | 14 | 0.9962293 |
| 68 | flash estimate | 15 | 0.0159919 | owe | 15 | 0.9957068 |
5.68.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-04-11 | 0.432 | real economy. moreover, downside risks also stem from the dampening impact on consumption and investment of further unanticipated increases in energy and food prices, as well as from protectionist pressures and the possibility of disorderly developments owing to global imbalances. with regard to price developments, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, the annual hicp inflation rate was 3.5% in march 2008, after 3.3% in february. this outturn confirms the ongoing strong and lately further increasing short-term upward pressure on inflation, resulting largely from sharp increases in energy and food prices in recent months. looking ahead, the annual hicp inflation rate is likely to remain significantly above 2% in the coming months, moderating only gradually over the course of 2008. acco… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-12-05 | 0.253 | relate mainly to the potential for a more significant impact on the real economy of the turmoil in financial markets, as well as concerns about protectionist pressures and possible disorderly developments owing to global imbalances. it is crucial that all parties concerned make their contribution to lay sound foundations for a sustainable recovery. for this to materialise as early as possible, it is of the utmost importance to maintain discipline and a medium-term perspective in macroeconomic policy- making. this is the best way to support confidence. the significant measures announced by governments to deal with the financial turmoil should be implemented swiftly so as to help ensure trust in the financial system and to prevent constraints on credit supply to companies and households. … |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.234 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.233 | the inflation outlook for the euro area the preservation of price stability over the medium term is the overriding policy objective for the ecb. by achieving this objective, we contribute to financial stability and support sustainable growth. since mid-2008, annual (hicp) inflation in the euro area declined steadily from 4% in july 2008 to 1.1% in january 2009 (according to eurostat’s flash estimate). this decline in headline inflation reflects largely the substantial fall in global commodity prices and associated “pipeline” price pressures over this period. annual inflation rates are projected to decline further in the coming months, mainly due to expected lower commodity prices and base effects stemming from past energy prices, but also owing to diminishing domestic inflationary press… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-06-10 | 0.219 | this outlook is also reflected in the june 2008 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. the projections foresee average annual real gdp growth in a range between 1.5% and 2.1% in 2008 and between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2009. in comparison with the march ecb staff projections, the current range projected for real gdp growth in 2008 is within the upper part of the range published in march 2008, mainly as a consequence of the better than expected outcome in the first quarter. for 2009, the range has been adjusted downwards, following the increase in commodity prices over recent months. the year-on-year growth rates which i have just mentioned need to be interpreted with particular caution on this occasion. while the annual rates suggest that growth may be weaker in 2009 than in 2008, they ma… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-07-18 | 0.193 | inadequate implementation of structural reforms in the member states and weaker than expected domestic demand. looking at price developments, we see that euro area hicp inflation declined sharply from late 2011 to october last year, and has since been fluctuating around very low levels below 1%. according to the latest data (eurostat’s flash estimate), euro area annual hicp inflation stood at 0.5% in june 2014, unchanged from may. annual hicp inflation is expected to remain at low levels over coming months, before increasing gradually in 2015 and 2016. at the same time, medium to long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability. upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments are both seen as limited and broadly balanced over the mediu… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Growth in a more resilient Euro area | Period_2 | 2017-10-18 | 0.143 | there are reasons to believe that the strengthening of economic activity, which so far has been significantly supported by accommodative monetary policy, will progressively be supported by more structural factors. euro area governments have undertaken substantial policy actions and reforms to redress pre-crisis related macroeconomic imbalances and increase economic resilience.3 for instance, euro area countries which had previously experienced large current account deficits are now in surplus. moreover, both ecb staff and imf estimates indicate that the largest driver of this adjustment is non-cyclical in nature, which implies a higher likelihood of sustainability as the recovery continues. additionally, business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries has increased in recent y… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-09-06 | 0.133 | largely reflecting incoming data. for 2014 there has been a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. recent developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. other downside risks include higher commodity prices in the context of renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker than expected global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries. according to eurostat’s flash estimate, as expected, euro area annual hicp inflation was 1.3% in august 2013, down from 1.6% in june and july. on the basis of current assumptions for energy and exchange rate development… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2015-09-03 | 0.132 | by the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms. this assessment is also broadly reflected in the september 2015 ecb staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real gdp increasing by 1.4% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. compared with the june 2015 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real gdp growth has been revised down, primarily due to lower external demand owing to weaker growth in emerging markets. the risks to the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside, reflecting in particular the heightened uncertainties related to the external environment. notably, current developments in emerging market economies have the potential to further affe… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-12-05 | 0.132 | according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation increased in november 2013 to 0.9%, from 0.7% in october. the increase was broadly as expected and reflected, in particular, an upward base effect in energy prices and higher services price inflation. on the basis of prevailing futures prices for energy, annual inflation rates are expected to remain at around current levels in the coming months. over the medium term, underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued. at the same time, inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. broadly in line with this assessment, the december 2013 eurosystem staff macroecono… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.153 | conducted detailed analysis to examine the relative importance of these drivers.!¥! the pandemic has added a whirlwind of short-term disruptions on top of these long-term trends. initially, the pandemic had put further downward pressure on inflation in the euro area. inflation declined substantially in 2020, with rates temporarily entering negative territory in the second half of the year. much of that decline was attributable to specific pandemic-related, temporary factors, including a substantial decline in commodity prices and the temporary cut in german vat rates. with the onset of the recovery, inflation picked up rapidly. in fact, the current spike in inflation owes much to the continued impact of those same factors that pushed down inflation earlier in the annual comparison. cons… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Looking through higher energy prices? Monetary policy and the green transition | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.137 | as a result, energy price inflation in the euro area, as measured by the energy sub-index of the harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp), reached a historical high in november last year, with electricity and gas jointly accounting for more than a third of the total increase, also a new historical high (slide 6). energy, in turn, has been the prime factor behind the sharp rise in overall consumer price inflation in the euro area, with the hicp standing at 5.0% in december 2021 according to eurostat’s flash estimate, which was the highest level recorded since the euro was introduced in 1999 (slide 7). between april |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.114 | adjusted inflation figures including the owner-occupied house price indices would currently be slightly higher than the annual hicp inflation rate. preliminary estimates indicate that the difference was around 0.2 percentage points in the second quarter of 2021, slightly higher than the average since 2012.9] this reflects strong euro area house price dynamics in the recent period, which remained unabated during the covid-19 crisis and continued to be supported by strong fundamentals and favourable financing conditions. at the same time, it is important to highlight that during periods when there is downward pressure on housing prices, such adjustments may also result in a lower hicp inflation rate. effectively discharging the ecb’s accountability obligations let me now conclude by discu… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Looking through higher energy prices? Monetary policy and the green transition | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.089 | significantly contributing to the projected decline in hicp headline inflation over the medium term (slides 5 and 8). such technical assumptions, however, are surrounded by significant uncertainty. in the past, futures prices have often significantly under- or overpredicted energy price inflation. these risks are arguably even larger today. to see this, it is enough to look at the profile of the projected inflation path: the decline of headline inflation to levels below 2% at the end of the projection horizon hinges on the assumption, derived from futures curves, that in 2023 and 2024 energy is not expected to contribute to headline inflation. history suggests that such a profile would be unusual. since 1999, energy has contributed, on average, 0.3 percentage points to annual headline i… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.085 | provides some empirical context for the discussion by showing the evolution of headline and core inflation since 2014. it underlines that, until quite recently, the euro area has been confronted with a low-inflation problem, with inflation persistently well below two per cent. at the same time, chart 1 also shows the sharp increase in inflation in recent months. the flash inflation estimate for february that was published today stands at 5.8 per cent. the upward pressure on overall inflation from the extraordinary 31.7 per cent rate of energy inflation is operating through both direct and indirect channels, since the increases in the sectoral inflation rates for food, goods and services in part reflect the impact of higher energy prices for production costs in all sectors of the economy… |
The most representative speeches:
5.69 Topic 69: council; govern; govern council; decision; decide
5.69.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | council | 1 | 0.2411894 | council | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 69 | govern | 2 | 0.2177124 | govern | 2 | 0.9997372 |
| 69 | govern council | 3 | 0.2118432 | govern council | 3 | 0.9995619 |
| 69 | decision | 4 | 0.0356759 | ecb govern | 4 | 0.9994741 |
| 69 | decide | 5 | 0.0271881 | ecb govern council | 5 | 0.9990362 |
| 69 | meet | 6 | 0.0233957 | council decide | 6 | 0.9985982 |
| 69 | ecb govern | 7 | 0.0135534 | council meet | 7 | 0.9984227 |
| 69 | ecb govern council | 8 | 0.0123796 | govern council meet | 8 | 0.9984225 |
| 69 | view | 9 | 0.0109348 | govern council decide | 9 | 0.9983354 |
| 69 | council decide | 10 | 0.0096707 | decide | 10 | 0.9983344 |
| 69 | govern council decide | 11 | 0.0084065 | decision | 11 | 0.9979827 |
| 69 | account | 12 | 0.0079551 | meet | 12 | 0.9978958 |
| 69 | council meet | 13 | 0.0074133 | unanimously | 13 | 0.9971066 |
| 69 | govern council meet | 14 | 0.0064200 | govern council decision | 14 | 0.9969319 |
| 69 | context | 15 | 0.0056977 | background | 15 | 0.9968457 |
5.69.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The monetary policy of the ECB during the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-06-08 | 0.189 | into the long-term inflation expectations, which could trigger second-round effects on wages and prices. it is against this background that the governing council decided in april to raise interest rates. i stressed in reporting this decision it had been taken unanimously. the action of the governing council is motivated by a common goal. that decision in april confirmed that the separation principle is strictly applied and that our non-conventional measures do not restrict in any way our ability to toughen the monetary policy stance when facing inflationary pressures. thus, when the governing council decided in march and april that it was time to raise interest rates, in parallel, at the same time, it decided to keep, in the second quarter, the provision of unlimited fixed-rate liquidit… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2001 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2002-07-02 | 0.130 | other indicators and analyses in the context of our two-pillar strategy, and we do not try to hide the complexity of monetary policy-making behind the production of a single governing council forecast. the projections reflect the expert judgement of eurosystem staff and we prefer to keep this distinct from the judgement of the governing council regarding the overall assessment of the risks to price stability. therefore, our decision to clearly separate the production of the projections from the analysis of the governing council is fully transparent as it honestly reflects the decision-making process within the ecb. as regards communication, we have always taken an approach that ensures a high level of transparency and clarity of our message. our monthly press conferences are key in this… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2007 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-07-14 | 0.130 | transparency i would also like to welcome the committee’s recognition that making the minutes of the ecb governing council’s meetings available to the public would not be advisable. such a measure would draw attention to individual positions when in a euro area of 15 – and very soon 16 – countries, what counts is the position of the collegial decision maker, the governing council. it could also lead to pressures on governing council members to abandon their necessarily euro area perspective when taking monetary policy decisions. as already emphasised on previous occasions, i see the introductory statement i present on behalf of the governing council at the monthly press conference as an equivalent to what other central banks call “summary minutes”. together with the ensuing q&a session,… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the outcome of the latest meeting of the ECB Governing Council (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 4 Nov 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-11-09 | 0.129 | 1 january 2002. in this regard, i am now pleased to announce that the governing council has decided to negotiate the contract with publicis. further information on this matter can be found in a separate press release which will be issued this afternoon. finally, i should like to draw your attention to the fact that the second meeting of the governing council to be held in december has been rescheduled. as announced yesterday, the meeting has been brought forward from thursday 16 december 1999, to wednesday 15 december 1999, in order to enable several governing council members to attend a first gathering of a new forum consisting of ministers of finance and central bank governors (the so-called “g20”), which is to be held in berlin on 16 december 1999. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: A few remarks on communication by central banks | Period_1 | 2008-01-18 | 0.120 | how the ecb addresses its audience let me turn to how the governing council of the ecb explains its monetary policy decisions to the public. our communications aim to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. in this respect, the governing council fully subscribes to the basic principles of modern central bank communication described earlier. a high degree of transparency vis-à-vis our monetary policy has helped the public to hold the governing council accountable for its policy |
| Vítor Constâncio: “We are certainly not almighty”- interview with Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-09-16 | 0.210 | but the new ecb projections for growth and inflation have been revised only marginally. why did the governing council nevertheless decide to take quite far-reaching decisions? these are not the governing council’s projections –this is very important. these are the ecb’s staff projections and in that sense they are just one element for the governing council’s decision. the risks to the downside for growth and inflation were seen as more important by the governing council. |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.177 | yet people had the impression that, on many decisions taken by the ecb’s governing council during the crisis, a small number of northern european countries which are possibly more stability-oriented were outvoted by the rest. do you not find it problematic if a minority are always outvoted? it was not like that at all. the three-year financing operations for banks, ltros, were approved by the overwhelming majority of the governing council, including most of the members you are hinting at; omts were approved by all members of the governing council except one; the various interest rate cuts during the crisis were mostly unanimously supported, or with an overwhelming majority. for the last interest rate cut in november, the difference was not so much about whether to do it, but when. up un… |
| Vítor Constâncio: “We are certainly not almighty”- interview with Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-09-16 | 0.162 | but this would lead to even more dissent within the governing council. last week’s decision was not unanimous – although it is always stressed that the governing council is unanimous in its commitment to do what is necessary against the risks of low inflation. this phrase does not mean that in a particular moment everybody has to agree to a concrete package. the most significant thing about this phrase – which was decided upon unanimously – is that no unconventional instrument is a priori excluded. but calibration and timing can occasionally be a source of discussion. but with the most recent decision the consensus decision-making is ultimately history now? since 2010, we have had some decisions which were not taken unanimously. in such difficult times, there are different views. i woul… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Handelsblatt | Period_2 | 2015-12-28 | 0.160 | mr praet, rather than the next big flood of money that was expected from the european central bank (ecb), there was only a very small expansion of the existing stimulus. did you have to back down? does the majority of the ecb’s governing council no longer support your and mario draghi’s policy? quite the opposite: we had a very strong majority! by way of explanation: the relevant working groups provide the executive board with an analysis of the different measures and the board discusses a monetary policy package, which i then put forward to the governing council. what was agreed last week is exactly in line with what i proposed to the council on thursday, taking into account what was discussed in the committees. you had already met the other members of the ecb’s governing council for d… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.154 | some record or account of its policy deliberations. i would like to share with you my views on this matter today. a written account of our policy deliberations would provide a more detailed explanation of the reasoning behind the governing council’s decisions, and give a sense of the discussion and the main arguments. this would allow the public and markets to further improve their understanding of the governing council’s reaction function, our assessment of the economy and our policy responses in light of evolving conditions. for this reason, i am convinced that it would be useful. yet, we need also to be careful. we need to take proper account of the specific institutional setting of the euro area and the unique communication challenges in a multi-country monetary union. 7 this implie… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.123 | the flexible reinvestment under pepp, and, more importantly, the unanimous support of the governing council for the transmission protection instrument - led us to decide a larger-than-what-had-been- signalled rate hike on the occasion of this meeting. that is really what, if you want to go behind the curtain of the governing council debates, this is what took place. i would add that in relation to the rate hikes we had the debate, weighted the pros and cons, and at the end of the discussion all members of the governing council rallied to the consensus of 50 basis points. so it’s a strong indication on both accounts in relation to the higher step that we are taking to exit from negative interest rates, and on the other front, which is making sure that our monetary policy stance is transm… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.090 | risks of a premature tightening measures of market-based inflation rate expectations compensation (percentages per annum) ser ee oem ——realised €str mem—- current €str + 10 bps ———eéstr forward curve (8 sep 21) mee 14 ils 55 ils ome es tr forward curve (4 feb 22} 7 — —_ ee fee — — €str forward curve (24 feb 22) noe ie ff l8: wet aug uf oo 0.60 22 —— ~<a 1 0.60 2.1 | 2.1 045 | 945 2.0 | 2.0 se a— feb | 0.90 0.15 2d 0.19 19 k 4+ 19 o00 } ! ! /} 7 00 -0.15 -0.15 18 | | 1.8 -0.30 | -0.30 16 | 1 1.6 -0.75 1 075 dec-21 jan-22 feb-22 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 sources: left panel: refinitiv and ecb calculation; right panel: refinitiv, bloomberg and ecb calculations. notes: left panel: the chart shows the one-year inflation linked-swap (ils) rate four years ahead and the five- year il… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.086 | conclusion summing up, inflation continues to be undesirably high and is expected to remain above our target for some time. the latest data indicate a slowdown in growth, clouding the outlook for the second half of 2022 and beyond. at the same time, this slowdown is being cushioned by a number of supportive factors. the governing council has today decided to raise the key ecb interest rates and approved the tpi. at our upcoming meetings, further normalisation of interest rates will be appropriate. our future policy rate path will continue to be data-dependent and will help us deliver on our two per cent inflation target over the medium term. we stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at our two per cent target over the medium t… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in an uncertain world | Period_3 | 2022-03-17 | 0.086 | when the governing council met last week, we weighed up these competing forces. we concluded that the challenges facing monetary policy are changing. we have become increasingly confident that the inflation dynamics of the past decade are unlikely to return. as a result, we decided it was appropriate to continue dialling back our net asset purchases, which were intended to combat an environment where disinflationary risks dominate. but we also agreed that we needed a policy framework tailored to the current environment of heightened uncertainty and the new challenges it presents. to that end, we decided that our policy should be governed by three principles: optionality, gradualism and flexibility. |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.073 | third, looking further ahead, we indicated that a gradual but sustained path of further increases in interest rates will be appropriate, based on our current assessment. the pace at which we adjust our monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and how we assess inflation to be developing in the medium term, in line with our commitment to our target of 2% over the medium term. wage increases and developments in inflation expectations need to be monitored closely, as they will be crucial for our deliberations beyond september. let me stress that, ever since the gradual process of policy normalisation was initiated in december 2021, the governing council has pledged to act against potential fragmentation risks. accordingly, the governing council decided on 15 june that we will apply… |
The most representative speeches:
5.70 Topic 70: current; situation; environment; risk; future
5.70.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | current | 1 | 0.1349216 | situation | 1 | 0.9995619 |
| 70 | situation | 2 | 0.1178685 | current | 2 | 0.9993863 |
| 70 | environment | 3 | 0.0577608 | economic situation | 3 | 0.9993863 |
| 70 | risk | 4 | 0.0400324 | environment | 4 | 0.9989482 |
| 70 | future | 5 | 0.0371621 | current economic | 5 | 0.9985974 |
| 70 | time | 6 | 0.0363179 | current situation | 6 | 0.9985967 |
| 70 | good | 7 | 0.0322657 | current environment | 7 | 0.9979840 |
| 70 | economic situation | 8 | 0.0256809 | current economic situation | 8 | 0.9977184 |
| 70 | reason | 9 | 0.0229794 | reason | 9 | 0.9974580 |
| 70 | numb | 10 | 0.0180830 | option | 10 | 0.9972834 |
| 70 | imply | 11 | 0.0165634 | imply | 11 | 0.9971953 |
| 70 | level | 12 | 0.0148750 | prospect | 12 | 0.9970209 |
| 70 | addition | 13 | 0.0128489 | future | 13 | 0.9969280 |
| 70 | current economic | 14 | 0.0126800 | worsen | 14 | 0.9968874 |
| 70 | prospect | 15 | 0.0113293 | financial situation | 15 | 0.9968408 |
5.70.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European economy - current state and prospects | Period_1 | 2004-09-29 | 0.097 | i am very honoured to have been invited here today. i would like to thank you, mr chairman, and the executive board of financial services ireland for your invitation, and for giving me this opportunity to share my views on the state of the european economy and the prospects for the future. i will like first to discuss the current economic and financial situation in the euro area and prospects for the future, and then i will focus on some of the conditions which need to be in place to ensure sustainable growth, including the role of fiscal policy. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Overview of recent euro area developments and the effects of globalisation on prices and real estate | Period_1 | 2008-01-11 | 0.087 | it is a great pleasure for me to be invited as a guest speaker here today. let me briefly sketch out the main topics i want to address. first, i will present to you our views on the current economic situation in the euro area. then, i will explain the ecb’s liquidity operations following the tensions in the money markets since august last year as well as our views on the stability of the euro area financial system. to conclude, i will say a word upon the effects of globalisation on price developments and on developments in the real estate sector. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.081 | i price stability: current situation and prospects let me first share with you some reflections on the prospects for price stability. starting with the current situation, euro area hicp inflation has remained at a high level since last autumn. this spike in euro area hicp inflation had its origins in external forces, in particular the very strong global rise in several commodity prices – notably those of energy and food. given the magnitude of these increases in global commodity prices, there has been a sizeable direct pass-through into the food and energy components of inflation. much of the ongoing inflationary pressure at this stage also derives from the indirect effects on inflation of cost pressures in the production chain. in addition, there is a concern that second-round effects … |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.078 | thorough examination of the risks, in much the same way as a disease calls for a sound diagnosis if it is to be properly treated. i will start the discussion by explaining how deflationary risks should be monitored and assessed by central banks, in particular with respect to the current situation. i will then turn to inflation expectations, over the short and medium term, to assess in particular how well they are anchored to the objective of price stability. then i will consider how monetary and credit aggregates can be of use in the current conditions to assess the balance of risks. i will conclude with the monetary policy actions required to ensure price stability in an environment subject to downward and upward pressures to price stability. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.074 | reasons for a medium-term economic recovery 2009 will be a very difficult year. i have already said this on various occasions. i see however at least four reasons why we can be confident that the world economy and the industrialised nations will recover: • the vigorous reactions of central banks and governments to the extraordinary situation – not only in europe, but worldwide – will progressively produce their effects. they may not yet have been sufficiently taken into account in the expectations of private sector participants. • the growth potential of the emerging market economies, for example, in asia, is considerable. their current deceleration of growth is temporary. many of these countries have an enormous potential to develop domestic demand. • technological progress is very rap… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the euro area problem | Period_2 | 2015-11-25 | 0.098 | ladies and gentlemen, i am honoured by mr maleki’s invitation to speak at the opening conference of the 18th euro finance week. in my remarks today i would like to characterise the current economic situation in the euro area. furthermore, i will address the roles that monetary policy, supply-side reforms and fiscal policies have played – and can play in the future – in shaping this situation. |
| Mario Draghi: Remarks at the Annual Reception of the Association of German Banks | Period_2 | 2012-03-28 | 0.077 | the current economic situation as this audience knows very well, in november last year, the prospects for the euro area financial sector were very bleak. banks were experiencing a period of heightened stress. the inter-bank market was closed except to the strongest institutions in the safest countries, and funding markets were impaired. unable to raise funds beyond short maturities, many banks were reducing medium- term lending to the real economy. at the same time came the requirement to increase capital ratios to 9%. this increased the risks of substantial deleveraging, including the risk of banks cutting back on loans, notably those to small and medium-sized enterprises. we could see the intensity of the deleveraging pressures in bank lending surveys and other data. in the fourth qua… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-06-18 | 0.073 | mr chairman, honourable members of the committee on economic and monetary affairs, ladies and gentlemen, i am happy to be back to this committee for my regular hearing. today, i would like to share with you the ecb’s assessment of the current economic and monetary conditions in the euro area. i will then touch on the subject chosen for our exchange of views, namely the risks and side-effects of our asset purchase programme. finally, i will say a few words about the current situation in greece. |
| Peter Praet: The low interest rate environment in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-09-17 | 0.073 | challenges of the low interest rate environment let me start, however, by briefly touching on the challenges the current situation poses for the pension fund sector, as well as for the insurance sector given its similar focus on fixed income assets and the prevalence of long-term liabilities. large euro area insurers show quite reasonable profitability, 1 albeit the aggregate picture masks substantial heterogeneity 1 see ecb (2015), “financial stability review”, may. |
| Fabio Panetta: Asymmetric risks, asymmetric reaction - monetary policy in the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-09-22 | 0.070 | the current economic situation today, our monetary policy can gradually focus less on preventing financial and productive collapse and more on securing the return of inflation to our aim. this was the explicit goal of our decision to expand and extend the pepp in june. and our pandemic support measures are contributing to that goal. the |
| Isabel Schnabel: New narratives on monetary policy – the spectre of inflation | Period_3 | 2021-10-12 | 0.063 | the recovery and be most harmful to those who are already suffering from the current spike in inflation. finally, i will explain why the higher inflation we are seeing now may actually be positive news. there are good reasons to assume that the current constellation of fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area may finally chart the path out of the low interest rate environment. new monetary policy strategy as yardstick and compass the assessment of current and future inflation lies at the heart of our monetary policy decisions that we take to maintain price stability in the euro area as a whole. about every six weeks – and most recently last week – we look at a broad range of economic indicators to assess the future path of inflation. so how do we assess the current situation? will th… |
| Isabel Schnabel: New narratives on monetary policy – the spectre of inflation | Period_3 | 2021-10-12 | 0.062 | jeopardise the achievement of our inflation target. and it would doubtlessly exacerbate the economic and social consequences of the pandemic. the pandemic as a way out of the low interest rate environment? so we will act carefully and cautiously in the current environment. but this is not to say that interest rates will necessarily remain low for an indefinite period of time. although we assume in our baseline scenario that inflation will fall back below 2% in the medium term, we are very diligently monitoring whether the underlying forecast assumptions might not underestimate the possibility of higher inflation over the coming years. as inflation expectations are still low, the prospect of persistently excessive inflation, as feared by some, remains highly unlikely in the euro area. th… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.049 | central banks are facing a higher sacrifice ratio the third, and closely related, observation that supports a more forceful policy response relates to the potential costs of acting too late – that is, when high inflation has become fundamentally entrenched in expectations, a situation that neither the united states nor the euro area are facing today. in the early 1980s, many central banks had to tolerate large and costly increases in unemployment to restore confidence in the nominal anchor. there are at least three reasons to believe that a similar endeavour could be even more costly today in terms of lost output and employment. one is that our economies have become less interest rate-sensitive over time, meaning that more withdrawal of monetary accommodation would be required for a giv… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-11-29 | 0.049 | having lower financial buffers to cover the rising cost of living. currently, the gap between the effective inflation rate experienced by the lowest and highest income groups is by far at its highest level on record in the euro area.3 the divergence in inflation rates across euro area member countries is also at a record high, mainly due to different degrees of exposure to the energy shock and to the pandemic. we are monitoring these divergences carefully and expect them to normalise as the impact of these shocks fades over time. the different shocks over the past year have also had an impact on real economic activity. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.048 | the second, complementary option is to steadily reshuffle our sovereign bond portfolio towards green bonds as governments expand their supply of green bonds over time. greening our lending operations finally, we need to intensify efforts to green our lending operations, including the collateral framework. as a first step we will limit the share of assets issued by entities with a high carbon footprint that can be pledged as collateral by individual counterparties when they borrow from the eurosystem. we will also consider climate-related risks when determining haircuts for corporate bonds. but these measures will have only a small impact on the overall collateral provided by our counterparties. a systematic greening of the ecb’s collateral framework is therefore an important tool to ens… |
The most representative speeches:
5.71 Topic 71: money; issue; payment; account; currency
5.71.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | money | 1 | 0.0789109 | hayek | 1 | 0.9993863 |
| 71 | issue | 2 | 0.0210774 | payment | 2 | 0.9990359 |
| 71 | payment | 3 | 0.0189045 | money | 3 | 0.9988597 |
| 71 | account | 4 | 0.0179016 | proposal | 4 | 0.9986858 |
| 71 | currency | 5 | 0.0179016 | electronic | 5 | 0.9973216 |
| 71 | process | 6 | 0.0168987 | transaction | 6 | 0.9967145 |
| 71 | stable | 7 | 0.0145586 | issuer | 7 | 0.9959214 |
| 71 | hayek | 8 | 0.0143915 | compete | 8 | 0.9958298 |
| 71 | note | 9 | 0.0142243 | store | 9 | 0.9957394 |
| 71 | proposal | 10 | 0.0140572 | stable | 10 | 0.9956965 |
| 71 | result | 11 | 0.0130543 | unit | 11 | 0.9956616 |
| 71 | good | 12 | 0.0130543 | discovery | 12 | 0.9953822 |
| 71 | provide | 13 | 0.0120514 | impose | 13 | 0.9950005 |
| 71 | time | 14 | 0.0120514 | note | 14 | 0.9943751 |
| 71 | function | 15 | 0.0103799 | arrangement | 15 | 0.9943469 |
5.71.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr Issing’s speech entitled ‘Hayek - currency competition and European monetary union’ (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 May 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-06-09 | 0.534 | money language which would be provided by a single numeraire, would degenerate. this would probably result in very poor co-ordination in the economy, with the efficiency of the decentralised decision-making of firms and households, which is the hallmark of capitalist economies, being jeopardised and the productive potential of the economy being gravely endangered. the purely private provision of a public good (the unit-of-account function of money) would, in this case, be sub-optimal since private issuers cannot easily underpin the single numeraire. nor do they have an incentive to do so since they cannot capture the vast social benefits of the common monetary language provided by the unit-of-account function of money. there are further issues that any proposal in the spirit of hayek wo… |
| Mr Issing’s speech entitled ‘Hayek - currency competition and European monetary union’ (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 May 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-06-09 | 0.518 | “dollarisation”, whereby a country voluntarily relinquishes its own currency in favour of adopting a foreign currency, the “dollar”. it appears to me, therefore, that under the hayek proposal, we are likely to get either one or other of the following unfavourable outcomes. on the one hand, we could see the emergence of floating exchange rates between different privately issued moneys, resulting in an uncertain discovery process without any guarantee of a stable outcome, along with a deterioration in economic communication and co-ordination in the economy overall. on the other hand, any attempt by private issuers to pre- empt these outcomes by fixing the exchange rates between their currencies would probably trigger gresham’s law and result in accelerating inflation. 4. the importance of… |
| Mr Issing’s speech entitled ‘Hayek - currency competition and European monetary union’ (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 May 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-06-09 | 0.453 | suffers from a comparable absurdity – or a worse one, in view of the associated macroeconomic disorders.” money used as a unit of account has characteristics of a public good. given the unit-of-account function, the medium-of-exchange and store-of-value functions have traditionally, but not exclusively, been supplied by private enterprise. just as stable money is of crucial importance for a stable price level in a macroeconomic context, a stable price level is of equal significance for the efficient performance of money in a microeconomic context. a stable price level is, in principle, of central importance in ensuring that the three famous microeconomic functions which money provides are allowed to operate with maximum efficiency.12 from the point of view of the public involvement in t… |
| Mr Issing’s speech entitled ‘Hayek - currency competition and European monetary union’ (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 May 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-06-09 | 0.451 |
|
| Mr Issing’s speech entitled ‘Hayek - currency competition and European monetary union’ (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 May 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-06-09 | 0.426 | advantage of the market order is that prices will convey to the acting individuals the relevant information, only the constant observation of the course of current prices of particular commodities can provide information on the direction in which more or less money ought to be spent. money is not a tool of policy that can achieve particular foreseeable results by control of its quantity. but it should be part of the self-steering mechanism by which individuals are constantly induced to adjust their activities to circumstances on which they have information only through the abstract signals of prices. it should be a serviceable link in the process that communicates the effects of events never wholly known to anybody and that is required to maintain an order in which the plans of particip… |
| Yves Mersch: Central banking in times of technological progress | Period_2 | 2017-08-07 | 0.174 | add caution. far more detailed research is needed into the most beneficial system for all parties, and not just for financial institutions. as just one example, suppose central banks stopped providing cash and instead shifted to just providing digital base money (dbm) – an electronic claim on the central bank. would the system involve each individual having an account at the central bank, or involve a decentralised system where each individual has an electronic wallet and the central bank is unaware of transactions that take place. either system could be implemented using a distributed ledger, but the set up would be quite different in each scenario.17 in any case, just as cash has a number of technological safeguards to protect from counterfeiting, dbm would require significant safegua… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Monetary policy in uncertain times - the European Central Bank and the crisis | Period_2 | 2016-09-15 | 0.161 | all beginnings are difficult. it’s true of monetary policy as well. let’s consider for a moment europe’s first central bank. in 1656 johan palmstruch founded stockholm banco, introduced paper money and triggered an economic crisis. what happened? at the outset stockholm banco conducted normal banking operations: it took deposits and made loans. the deposits at that time mainly consisted of copper coins, and the most common denomination weighed almost 20 kg. but in 1662 the swedish state issued new coins which contained less copper. the old coins stored at stockholm banco thus became more valuable and the depositors asked for them back. the bank then found itself with a serious liquidity problem because the desired coins had been issued as loans. faced with this situation, johan palmstru… |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.117 | the mandate of the ecb what is our mandate? central banks have different mandates, depending on the jurisdiction and institutional framework in which they operate. ours is not like that of the united states or of japan, for example. broadly speaking, central banks exist to preserve the integrity of money. this function of central banks comes from historical experience, which shows that sound money is crucial to economic prosperity and social stability. in the words of john kenneth galbraith: “when money is bad, people want it to be better. when it is good, they think of other things”. we want sound money precisely so that people can think of other things and do other things: work, save, invest, innovate. if today we only rarely ask ourselves if money is “good” or “bad”, it is because fo… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.102 | there are in my view however, substantial drawbacks to consider, and reasons why many policymakers are reluctant to seriously consider this proposal. cash has survived throughout the centuries as a reliable transaction technology and as a store of value. its elimination would be a major break with a long‐standing social convention. it remains popular: a recent survey carried out for the ecb found that 80% of transactions in the euro area at the point of sale are in cash. people who prefer to hold currency may perceive its abolition as an assault on their freedom and in particular, on their right of anonymity. and savers may think the abolition of cash, coupled with a negative nominal interest rate on deposits, as an unfair wealth tax. |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.101 | economies, the bulk of the money stock takes the form of bank deposits. money is the liability of the banking system as a whole, and it circulates electronically. for money to be “single”, then, the payments system has to work smoothly across the jurisdiction – that is actually one of our statutory tasks – and the banking system that creates money has to be sound. it is above all for this reason that we attach great importance to high-quality banking supervision, a task that has been entrusted to the ecb since november last year. and it is for the same reason that we act as lender of last resort to solvent banks in the event of a liquidity crisis. these functions are not designed to protect individual banks per se. they aim to ensure confidence in deposits and their continuous fungibili… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.079 | furthermore, very good progress has been made as regards the imf’s new resilience and sustainability trust (rst), which has now become operational. for contributions by eu national central banks, it is essential that claims on the rst maintain reserve asset quality. in our assessment, the modalities of the loan and deposit accounts of the rst, as well as the deposit and investment account of the poverty reduction and growth trust, are acceptable in that regard. however, we note that the channelling of special drawing rights by eu national central banks to multilateral development banks or individual countries would not be compatible with the eu’s legal framework. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.055 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in an uncertain world | Period_3 | 2022-03-17 | 0.044 | as the euro area is a net importer of energy, rising energy prices represent a terms of trade “tax” that transfers purchasing power to the rest of the world. higher energy prices already created a negative income effect of 1.4% of gdp in the last quarter of 2021 compared with the same period in 2019, which was only partly offset by higher export prices.[“4] |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.031 | effects on other countries. the costs in turn relate to the possibility that european policies fail to reflect the heterogeneity of preferences across member states.[25] theory therefore suggests that the eu should provide for public goods that cannot be offered more effectively or efficiently at the national level, and for which the preferences of citizens are sufficiently homogenous across europe. in my view, such eu public goods do include the investment needs i have just listed. the ensuing call for more fiscal resources on a permanent basis at the european level may lead to further important steps towards the creation of a european fiscal union. in line with the dictum of monnet, the crisis thus offers a possibility to create stronger fiscal capacity at the european level that coul… |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.031 | macroprudential policy addresses risks to financial stability. our strategy review acknowledges that financial stability is a necessary condition for price stability. with an impaired transmission mechanism in times of financial turmoil, maintaining price stability is not possible. at the same time, monetary policy itself can have implications for financial stability. accommodative monetary policy can reduce credit risk and prevent debt deflation. but it could also trigger excessive risk taking or encourage higher leverage in the financial system. in times of monetary policy tightening, the converse arguments apply. |
The most representative speeches:
5.72 Topic 72: challenge; conclude; environment; conclusion; time
5.72.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | challenge | 1 | 0.1636830 | conclude | 1 | 0.9998248 |
| 72 | conclude | 2 | 0.0623803 | challenge | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 72 | environment | 3 | 0.0558906 | conclusion | 3 | 0.9993867 |
| 72 | conclusion | 4 | 0.0422780 | policymaker | 4 | 0.9988610 |
| 72 | time | 5 | 0.0254998 | adapt | 5 | 0.9988604 |
| 72 | bring | 6 | 0.0243918 | conclude remark | 6 | 0.9982447 |
| 72 | policymaker | 7 | 0.0196432 | environment | 7 | 0.9980701 |
| 72 | attention | 8 | 0.0169524 | pose | 8 | 0.9979847 |
| 72 | remark | 9 | 0.0167941 | attention | 9 | 0.9978088 |
| 72 | pose | 10 | 0.0163192 | bring | 10 | 0.9974565 |
| 72 | address | 11 | 0.0158444 | confront | 11 | 0.9974154 |
| 72 | adapt | 12 | 0.0133118 | rapidly | 12 | 0.9973715 |
| 72 | change | 13 | 0.0128370 | tackle | 13 | 0.9973701 |
| 72 | rapidly | 14 | 0.0122038 | cope | 14 | 0.9971510 |
| 72 | respond | 15 | 0.0101461 | economic environment | 15 | 0.9970636 |
5.72.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.153 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Central banks and the public - the importance of communication | Period_1 | 2008-11-21 | 0.112 | conclusions let me conclude. the fundamental changes in central bank communication have helped to enhance the effectiveness, predictability and credibility of monetary policy and have notably contributed to lowering both inflation rates and volatility in the real economy. for its part, the ecb has established a practise of making its policy transparent and in setting new benchmarks in the area of central banking communication. that being said, in each occasion, a central bank has to carefully assess the relevance, clarity and timeliness of the information as ill-designed communication has the power to harm the economy. transparency is a key ingredient of an effective monetary policy, but not an end in itself. communication is an ongoing challenge and effective communication will always … |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial crisis? | Period_1 | 2010-04-13 | 0.110 | concluding remarks in conclusion, what are the main lessons from recent experience that we should seek to incorporate in any revision to the framework for monetary policy-making? first and foremost, monetary policy should have remained more closely focused on the maintenance of price stability over the medium term. this implies that this objective must be defined clearly and pursued symmetrically. monetary policy should not be burdened with additional objectives, which it is ill-equipped to pursue. the institutional independence of the central bank is essential to building the credibility required to pursue price stability in a consistent and coherent manner. dual mandates for monetary policy place this independence at risk. independence accords central banks the necessary flexibility t… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The changing role of communication | Period_1 | 2008-12-18 | 0.107 | conclusions let me conclude. the fundamental changes in central bank communication have helped to enhance the effectiveness, predictability and credibility of monetary policy and have notably contributed to lowering both inflation rates and volatility in the real economy. for its part, the ecb has established a practise of making its policy transparent and in setting new benchmarks in the area of central banking communication. that being said, on each occasion, a central bank has to carefully assess the relevance, clarity and timeliness of the information. transparency is a key ingredient of an effective monetary policy. communication is an ongoing challenge and effective communication will always be characterised by a degree of flexibility and adaptability in order to respond swiftly t… |
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.102 |
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| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.114 | conclusion let me conclude. the crisis has exposed the balancing act lying at the heart of monetary policy. on the one hand, central banks are key participants in addressing short-term challenges that the economy faces. on the other hand, their crisis-fighting efforts have to be designed and communicated in full consistence with their long-run price stability mandates. to successfully manage this balancing act, monetary policy-makers must clearly distinguish between their objective, which serves to firmly anchor market expectations, and their conduct of policy, which should flexibly adjust to the specific challenges at hand. the ecb’s strategic framework contains the necessary elements to achieve this balance. financial conditions have generally improved in the euro area over recent mon… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for future monetary policy frameworks - a European perspective | Period_2 | 2016-11-09 | 0.095 | conclusion let me conclude. a number of potential changes to monetary policy frameworks could be necessary to meet the challenges of the new economic environment. i provided my thoughts on some of them, but omitted many others. other challenges stem from a prolonged period of low, albeit not negative, interest rates resulting from the decline in potential growth and the demographic effects on savings.14 indeed, the apparent difficulties to reach higher levels of inflation and real equilibrium interest rates may hamper the capacity of monetary policy to deal with future recessionary episodes.15 some economists maintain that monetary policy can do almost everything, even if it would require the use of very negative rates, either because they are against the use of fiscal policy or because… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.087 | the institutional challenge is the first major challenge with which we are currently confronted. we have already made much progress in addressing the challenge. but a great deal of work remains to be done. the economic challenge the second and complementary challenge is economic. the benefits of adopting the euro are greater the more consistent the economic structures of existing and prospective members are. convergence can be broadly defined as a process in which cross-country differences in economic structures are reduced over time. the success of the convergence process ultimately depends on the sustainability of the underlying policies. shortcomings in the process of convergence across euro area members have been at the root of the challenges we have faced since 2010. but i am pleas… |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.083 | conclusion the ecb’s response to the exceptional challenges posed by the crisis has preserved the integrity of money in the euro area. monetary stability is however only one necessary condition for the prosperity of the economy. indeed, so much attention has been paid to our commitment to a sound currency that, to paraphrase galbraith, little thought has been given to other things. we must now look ahead, and move from stability towards prosperity. we need a new pact that prevents the re-emergence of the type of challenges we have addressed, and that above all strengthens the constitutional architecture of the euro area. this is not a new conclusion. it was already reached in the summer of 2012, when the european council mandated the president of the council, the commission, the eurogro… |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.082 | 07/10/2020 the ecb’s monetary policy in the pandemic: meeting the challenge meeting the monetary policy challenge the pandemic represents a significant monetary policy challenge. weak demand and rising economic slack have added to disinflationary pressures in an environment that is already characterised by low inflation. as i set out in my speech at this year’s jackson hole conference, chart 9 sketches in a stylised form the challenge the ecb is facing in reaching its inflation aim.[9] the future inflation path |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.098 | conclusion let me conclude. the environment we confront today is complex. we are facing shocks from various sides, while navigating a new global map that is causing those shocks to persist for longer. but what monetary policy ultimately has to achieve is simple: we must not, and will not, let high inflation become entrenched. we are committed to bringing inflation back down to our medium-term target, and we are determined to take the necessary measures to do so. the more confident the public is that inflation will return to 2% in a timely manner, the smoother the adjustment process will be. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.090 | monetary policy in a high inflation environment: commitment and clarity lecture by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, organised by eesti pank and dedicated to professor ragnar nurkse tallinn, 4 november 2022 inflation in the euro area is far too high, reaching double digits for the first time in october. here in estonia inflation has surged as high as 25%. the combination of shocks we are facing – war, energy, disrupted supply chains, re-allocation of demand – means that inflation is likely to stay above our target for some time. in such challenging times, central banks have to rely on their inner compass – their loyalty to their mandate – to ensure price stability. they have to be prepared to take the necessary decisions, however difficult, to bring inflation back down – because … |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.082 | conclusion let me conclude. we find ourselves in an exceptionally volatile environment, with multiple and complex risks for the inflation outlook and the appropriate monetary policy response. we are normalising our monetary policy to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation back to 2% over the medium term. but we cannot ignore the sizeable challenges that we are facing. so we must calibrate our monetary policy carefully to ensure that inflation durably returns to our target, while also guiding market expectations and limiting excess volatility. our policy stance must remain evidence-based and adapt to changes in the medium-term inflation outlook, avoiding an excessive focus on short-run developments and fully taking into account the risks emanating from the domestic and … |
| Christine Lagarde: New challenges in a changing world | Period_3 | 2023-01-24 | 0.078 | conclusion let me conclude. the transition from one year to the next is traditionally associated with quiet reflection, when we take stock of things that have come to pass. but as the poet rainer maria rilke once wrote: a new year is “full of things that have never been”. as we head into 2023, a changing world brings with it new challenges, but also opportunities. and let there be no doubt: with more self-confidence, more assertiveness and the right policies in place fuelling green and digital growth, europe can adapt and thrive. but some things never change: namely, the ecb’s commitment to price stability. we will play our part in europe’s next chapter by bringing inflation back to our 2% target. thank you. 1. see lagarde, c. (2022), “a new global map: european resilience in a changing… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Looking through higher energy prices? Monetary policy and the green transition | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.071 | and yet, the roots of today’s shock are likely to go deeper. while in the past energy prices often fell as quickly as they rose, the need to step up the fight against climate change may imply that fossil fuel prices will now not only have to stay elevated, but even have to keep rising if we are to meet the goals of the paris climate agreement. in my remarks today, | will discuss the challenges that such prospects pose to both fiscal and monetary policymakers in an environment in which the supply of cheaper and greener sources of energy will only gradually be able to meet rapidly rising demand. | will argue that governments will need to push the energy transition forward, while at the same time protecting the most vulnerable members of society from energy poverty. central banks, in turn,… |
The most representative speeches:
5.73 Topic 73: rule; economy; simple; change; approach
5.73.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | rule | 1 | 0.0793818 | rule | 1 | 1.0000000 |
| 73 | economy | 2 | 0.0337423 | optimal | 2 | 0.9992115 |
| 73 | simple | 3 | 0.0205919 | simple | 3 | 0.9992113 |
| 73 | change | 4 | 0.0181166 | taylor | 4 | 0.9985097 |
| 73 | approach | 5 | 0.0181166 | policy rule | 5 | 0.9977184 |
| 73 | optimal | 6 | 0.0178071 | discretion | 6 | 0.9976762 |
| 73 | base | 7 | 0.0173430 | preference | 7 | 0.9969327 |
| 73 | good | 8 | 0.0162600 | taylor rule | 8 | 0.9967930 |
| 73 | structure | 9 | 0.0145582 | approach | 9 | 0.9961786 |
| 73 | follow | 10 | 0.0140941 | structure | 10 | 0.9949932 |
| 73 | reason | 11 | 0.0128564 | equation | 11 | 0.9947738 |
| 73 | set | 12 | 0.0122376 | john | 12 | 0.9942468 |
| 73 | function | 13 | 0.0113093 | extreme | 13 | 0.9938162 |
| 73 | time | 14 | 0.0109999 | apply | 14 | 0.9935959 |
| 73 | depend | 15 | 0.0109999 | representation | 15 | 0.9935756 |
5.73.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Contribution to the session on “Implications for the conduct of monetary policy” | Period_1 | 2008-03-11 | 0.253 | extent that they have a medium-term influence on price stability. this is because another fundamental law of monetary economics is alive and well in the globalised economy: flexible exchange rates are a sine qua non for price stability. does a globalised world call for more international monetary coordination? with a growing set of prices and asset valuations being determined internationally, information on international developments is crucial for monetary policy-making. in this light, the financial turmoil in particular has shown the value that growing financial globalisation places on a timely and open international exchange of information among central banks and regulators. central banks should therefore cooperate by exchanging information and by designing a solid international fina… |
| Lucas Papademos: Policy-making in EMU - strategies, rules and discretion | Period_1 | 2004-04-23 | 0.229 | shocks, including those of a more permanent nature relating to structural change and innovation in financial markets. this may lead to undesirably high volatility in interest rates, prices and output. for good reasons, such monetary targeting rules have never been applied in practice, at least not in their strictest form. several more sophisticated rules have been developed since then. in recent years, the most prominent are the taylor-rules, based on a proposal by john b. taylor in 1993. in their simplest forms, such rules express the monetary policy instrument - the short-term nominal interest rate - as a function of the deviation of a few key macroeconomic variables, typically actual or expected inflation and actual output, from their target levels. there are, however, a number of re… |
| Lucas Papademos: Policy-making in EMU - strategies, rules and discretion | Period_1 | 2004-04-23 | 0.179 | inflation forecasts or projections, while useful and indeed indispensable ingredients of a monetary policy framework, cannot be the only input in decision-making. the same inflation forecast figures can be associated with quite different states of the economy, reflecting the effects of different factors and shocks, and thus potentially requiring different policy responses on the part of the central bank. for this reason too, monetary authorities carefully take into account the specific determinants of the economic situation and outlook as well as the nature and size of the threats to price stability. such an analysis may require adapting, to a certain extent, the appropriate monetary policy horizon for restoring price stability in response to the nature and magnitude of shocks. in this … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.172 | more infrequently – than its more “activist” counterpart. moreover, as analysts typically append a partial adjustment mechanism to the representation of how the central bank interest rate responds to the economic state, there is an additional source of “activism” – or “passivity” – that would emerge from these simple empirics. this is the inertia coefficient attached to the lagged interest rate dependent variable, which in these rules moderates the pace of reaction of the policy rate to its fundamental determinants. in any case, in the naive theory of this world, plain comparison of the frequencies of policy moves and the size of interest rate adjustments would suffice to tell the strategies of these two central banks apart. a smoother policy path would signal a “more passive” strategy…. |
| Jürgen Stark: Contribution to the session on “Implications for the conduct of monetary policy” | Period_1 | 2008-03-11 | 0.163 | • however, such a behaviour might generate a spurious correlation between the residuals of a simple taylor type policy rule for the euro area and interest rates in other economies. i suspect that this is what lies behind john taylor’s result concerning the deviations from a euro area “policy rule” and the us federal funds rate. having inside knowledge, i can in fact rule out that john taylor’s results constitute any sign of a leader-follower structure or any sign of a focus on the side of the ecb on the dollar-euro exchange rate, or in fact on any exchange rate, as a target of policy. neither is the case. i agree with john taylor, however, that any development in that direction would be deeply worrying. only a clear assignment of responsibilities ensures clarity about the central bank’s… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.178 | in the long‐run steady state when is constant, the expression in parenthesis has to equal zero, ∗ ∗ which implies the verification of the fisher equation or ∗ ∗ where ∗ is the long‐run equilibrium inflation rate dependent on i which is fixed by the monetary authorities. a more advanced way of presenting the neo‐fisherian view is reflected on a series of papers by schmitt‐grohé and uribe52 (2001 with benhabib), 2014 and 2017). the authors show that in simple dsge models with a zlb and taylor rule type of equation, obeying the taylor principle of an inflation coefficient higher than one, there are two or more equilibria and there is a path from the good equilibrium with positive inflation to a bad equilibrium of very low or negative inflation. in a liquidity trap, the taylor rule does n… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.153 | policies might perform reasonably well in normal times, they are likely to perform rather poorly when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. following a recession, they imply a much earlier tightening of policy rates than inflation targeting.15 simple interest rate rules there have been some proposals, especially in the united states, to give a much more prominent role to simple interest rate rules, the most famous example being the taylor rule, as a guideline for monetary policy decisions.16 the taylor rule has been shown to provide a reasonably good ex‐post account of movements in the policy interest rate. it suggests that, at any point in time, the short‐ term interest rate is equal to a constant, plus a weighted sum of the deviations of inflation from target and … |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.135 | while i do not dispute the informational content that interest rate rules might provide, i strongly oppose the idea that central banks’ policy rate decisions should be based on these rules. the key reason is that any specific rule is unlikely to be suited for all possible contingencies. the environment in which monetary policymakers have to act is much more complex than what is assumed in model‐ based analysis of policy rules. a simple rule that responds to one or two macroeconomic variables and ignores all other indicators of price developments is not able to account for the complexities of the real world. it would be especially odd, given the criticism that monetary policy does not take enough account of financial developments, to put in place a strategy that completely ignores them. |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy and balance sheet adjustment | Period_2 | 2014-05-28 | 0.130 | the ecb’s policy framework there are clear limits to the leeway that we – central banks – can afford within our mandates. our medium-term price stability objective implies that we cannot stretch our policy horizon forever – even if the economy is undergoing a lengthy deleveraging process. monetary policy needs to act forcefully if and when the adjustment process threatens the fulfilment of our mandate. we should preserve the virtues of constrained discretion: 6 a delicate and fragile blend of opposing attributes of monetary policy-making, which central banks acquired in the form of mandates in the 1990s, and which has served us well since then on our long journey back from the inflation years. let’s not forget that – since the early 1990s when the industrial world eradicated inflation –… |
| Peter Praet: Have unconventional policies overstretched central bank independence? Challenges for accountability and transparency in the wake of the crisis | Period_2 | 2017-03-30 | 0.120 | (tltros), our asset purchase programme for public and private sector securities (app), and our policy of charging a zero interest rate on main refinancing operations and a negative rate on excess reserves. as the floor of our monetary policy corridor – which by then had become the key instrument steering monetary conditions in the money market – was reduced to negative levels, other short to medium-term market yields dipped below the zero line as well. given the novelty, scope and size of the measures taken, and given their potential interaction with other public policies, communication of these measures proved to be much more difficult than before the crisis, when we only had to explain how changes in the main policy interest rates affect the economy and ultimately the price level. lik… |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.091 | circumstances and challenges that we face in the pursuit of price stability. making the strategy concrete let me explain how this can be envisaged in practice with an analogy in construction that may speak more to the minds of a general audience than concepts from the world of monetary theorists and lawyers. very much like price stability ensures a solid foundation to support a well- functioning economy, in construction concrete is the bedrock of any structure: homes, office buildings, bridges, wind and solar power stations, and so on. this bedrock is made up of four simple ingredients: cement, gravel, sand and water. every ingredient plays its part. cement is the key bonding agent that holds the concrete together. it is the gravel and sand that give it its strength and structural integ… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.070 | going forward, the contribution of fiscal policy, and therefore the appropriate policy mix, will remain important. fiscal policy is likely to stay supportive, with the cyclically-adjusted primary balance expected to be -4.1% this year, -1.6% next year and -1.5% in 2023. but the scope of pandemic-related fiscal transfers will need to change from a blanket-based approach to a more targeted action plan. fiscal policy will need to be surgical, meaning focused on those who have suffered particular hardship. it will need to be productivity-enhancing, meaning that it facilitates structural changes in the economy and shifts activity towards future-oriented sectors, and delivers on the agreed reform programmes under the recovery and resilience facility. and, taking a medium-term perspective, fis… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.049 | our main steering tool in this process is the tilting parameter – that is, the weight we put on the climate score in our benchmark allocation for new purchases. however, the tilting parameter lost part of its punch when we decided to stop net asset purchases (slide 5). the forthcoming reduction in reinvestments will further significantly constrain the ability of a flow-based approach to decarbonise our corporate bond portfolio at a pace that is consistent with our climate ambitions.[21] the decarbonisation of our corporate bond portfolio depends not only on our tilting parameter but also considerably on the rate at which the firms in our portfolio decarbonise their businesses.[22] for example, assuming full reinvestment, we would achieve only half of the total decarbonisation of our cor… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.046 |
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| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.043 | stronger anchor for inflation expectations, a strategic commitment to simplifying the communication of monetary policy also makes it easier for the ecb to be held accountable and for it to build trust among the general public. regarding the symmetry of the inflation target, the recognition that deviations from the target in either direction are equally undesirable implies that a risk-management approach to the calibration of monetary policy should balance equally the risks of inflation being too high and too low. at the same time, the symmetry of the target does not necessarily imply symmetry in policy responses to these risks, in view of the constraints imposed by the effective lower bound in reacting to below-target inflation. |
The most representative speeches:
5.74 Topic 74: projection; staff; macroeconomic; ecb staff; macroeconomic projection
5.74.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | projection | 1 | 0.1076839 | projection | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 74 | staff | 2 | 0.0805079 | macroeconomic projection | 2 | 0.9996494 |
| 74 | macroeconomic | 3 | 0.0378149 | staff macroeconomic projection | 3 | 0.9992990 |
| 74 | ecb staff | 4 | 0.0323283 | staff projection | 4 | 0.9992111 |
| 74 | macroeconomic projection | 5 | 0.0318139 | staff macroeconomic | 5 | 0.9990362 |
| 74 | eurosystem | 6 | 0.0296707 | staff | 6 | 0.9988601 |
| 74 | staff macroeconomic projection | 7 | 0.0282133 | eurosystem staff | 7 | 0.9987733 |
| 74 | staff macroeconomic | 8 | 0.0281276 | foresee | 8 | 0.9978096 |
| 74 | staff projection | 9 | 0.0276132 | ecb staff | 9 | 0.9978069 |
| 74 | eurosystem staff | 10 | 0.0243555 | ecb staff macroeconomic | 10 | 0.9975449 |
| 74 | outlook | 11 | 0.0231553 | eurosystem staff macroeconomic | 11 | 0.9973697 |
| 74 | foresee | 12 | 0.0226410 | foresee annual | 12 | 0.9969308 |
| 74 | expect | 13 | 0.0210978 | revise | 13 | 0.9967574 |
| 74 | revise | 14 | 0.0182688 | ecb staff projection | 14 | 0.9966683 |
| 74 | june | 15 | 0.0180116 | eurosystem staff projection | 15 | 0.9964918 |
5.74.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-06-14 | 0.172 | favourable level of business confidence in the euro area, private sector domestic demand should contribute increasingly to economic growth, benefiting from the still accommodative monetary policy stance and the measures adopted to improve the functioning of the financial system. however, activity is expected to continue to be dampened somewhat by the process of balance sheet adjustment in various sectors. this assessment is also reflected in the june 2011 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real gdp growth in a range between 1.5% and 2.3 % in 2011 and between 0.6% and 2.8% in 2012. compared with the march 2011 ecb staff macroeconomic projections, the range for 2011 has been revised upwards, while the range for 2012 remains broadly unchanged… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2008-06-10 | 0.153 | this outlook is also reflected in the june 2008 eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. the projections foresee average annual real gdp growth in a range between 1.5% and 2.1% in 2008 and between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2009. in comparison with the march ecb staff projections, the current range projected for real gdp growth in 2008 is within the upper part of the range published in march 2008, mainly as a consequence of the better than expected outcome in the first quarter. for 2009, the range has been adjusted downwards, following the increase in commodity prices over recent months. the year-on-year growth rates which i have just mentioned need to be interpreted with particular caution on this occasion. while the annual rates suggest that growth may be weaker in 2009 than in 2008, they ma… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-12-08 | 0.152 | significant macroeconomic stimulus under way and the measures adopted to restore the functioning of the financial system. however, a number of the supporting factors are of a temporary nature and activity is likely to be affected for some time to come by the ongoing process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and the non-financial sector, both inside and outside the euro area. for this reason, the euro area economy is expected to grow only at a moderate pace in 2010, and the recovery process is likely to be uneven. eurosystem staff project annual real gdp growth of between –4.1% and –3.9% in 2009, between +0.1% and +1.5% in 2010, and between +0.2% and +2.2% in 2011. the range for 2010 has been revised upwards compared with the september 2009 ecb staff macroeconomic projections…. |
| Jean Claude-Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-12-28 | 0.143 | economic and monetary developments since my previous appearance before the european parliament early october, incoming information has fully confirmed our view that, in a context of vigorous money and credit growth and sound economic fundamentals in the euro area, the risks to price stability over the medium term are clearly on the upside, as i have said, on behalf of the governing council, after our meeting on thursday, 6 december. the recent substantial increase in oil and food prices, together with unfavourable base effects from energy prices, owing to the marked decline in oil prices a year ago, are having a strong upward impact on inflation in the current context. looking ahead, the inflation rate is expected to remain significantly above 2% in the near future, and it is likely to … |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2010-03-05 | 0.142 | in the fourth quarter of 2009, after growing by 0.4% in the third quarter. available indicators suggest that the economic recovery in the euro area is on track, although it is likely to remain uneven. in particular, a number of special factors are at play, including adverse weather conditions in parts of the euro area in the first quarter of 2010. given this uneven pattern, it is more appropriate to look through the quarterly volatility and to compare growth developments on a half-yearly basis. looking ahead, the governing council expects real gdp growth to remain moderate in 2010, owing to the ongoing process of balance sheet adjustment in various sectors and the expectation that the low capacity utilisation is likely to dampen investment and that consumption is being dampened by weak … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Securing sustained economic growth in the euro area | Period_2 | 2016-10-12 | 0.223 | staff economic projections overall, the impact of our measures has been significant, but the euro area recovery has certainly not been as fast as we had hoped. this is in part due to the headwinds stemming from the global economy, the structural slowdown in world trade and the financial crisis legacies lingering in many euro area countries which continue to dampen economic activity. these factors explain why the risks to the outlook remain to the downside. nevertheless, the narrative of a continued yet moderate recovery is largely echoed in the latest (september 2016) ecb staff macroeconomic projections for euro area activity, which are almost unchanged compared to june 2016. real gdp is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.7% in 2016, 1.6% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. since the projec… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Growth in a more resilient Euro area | Period_2 | 2017-10-18 | 0.221 | ecb computations, sapi task force, september 2017 mpe, bmes.2 looking ahead, the latest ecb staff projections continue to expect domestic demand to remain the key driver of euro area growth. annual real gdp is projected to increase by 2.2% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. the risks to the growth outlook are broadly balanced. according to the latest imf weo projections, euro area real gdp is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2017 before moderating to 1.9% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019, which is in line with the ecb projections. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2020-12-11 | 0.214 | moves towards our aim in a sustained manner, in line with our commitment to symmetry. let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. following a sharp contraction in the first half of 2020, euro area real gdp rebounded strongly and rose by 12.5 per cent, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter, although remaining well below pre- pandemic levels. the second wave of the pandemic and the associated intensification of containment measures observed since mid-october are expected to result in a renewed significant decline in activity in the fourth quarter, although to a much lesser extent than observed in the second quarter of this year. economic developments continue to be uneven across sectors, with activity in the services sector being more adver… |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.210 | [2] the june eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections expected average annual output to decline by 8.7 percent in 2020 but expand by 5.2 percent in 2021 and a further 3.3 percent in 2022. the incoming data have been broadly in line with our expectations: the latest september ecb staff macroeconomic projections see an output decline of 8.0 percent in 2020 and expansions of 5.0 percent in 2021 and 3.2 percent in 2022. [3] see also dossche, m. and zlatanos, s. (2020), “covid-19 and the increase in household savings: precautionary or forced?”, economic bulletin, issue 6, ecb. |
| Philip R Lane: The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic - meeting the challenge | Period_2 | 2020-10-07 | 0.175 | 07/10/2020 the ecb’s monetary policy in the pandemic: meeting the challenge haver and ecb staff calculations. notes: aggregation based on data for germany, spain, france, italy and the netherlands. the latest observations are for the second quarter of 2020. this assessment underpins the baseline scenario of the september ecb staff macroeconomic projections. despite the recovery in the second half of the year, output at the end of 2020 is projected to remain about 5.2 percent below the level of output at the end of 2019. economic activity is foreseen to return to pre-pandemic levels only towards the end of 2022, with output expected to expand by 5.0 percent in 2021 and 3.2 percent in 2022. in any event, the range of possible outcomes in the projections remains very wide. this is illustra… |
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.238 | unemployment rate in the euro area (percentages of the labour force) = realised values ® december 2021 eurosystem staff projections 13 12 11 10 9 8 @ 7 ° e 6 — — ww wy) co co ™ ™ co co oo) oo) a | oo - — ™n (nn eo) ap) — — as = ss f ©c© & % % s& sg §| | sf se sf os es a & a & 5 3 &§ 365 5s &§ 3s &§ sse sse sese ses eb sources: eurostat and december 2021 ecb/eurosystem staff projections. note: the latest observations are for december 2021. chart 9 unemployment rate in ecb/eurosystem staff projections (percentages of the labour force) ™ december 2019 ™ september 2021 ™ june 2020 ™ december 2021 iy 10 rs | 9 8 6 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 sources: ecb/eurosystem staff projections and ecb staff calculations. the projected tightening of the labour market in part reflects the success of macroec… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.216 | shows the evolution of the projected inflation path (as summarised by the end-of-horizon projected inflation rate). over the period 2018-2019, the end-of horizon projections for inflation had gradually declined before the pandemic, such that the risk of downside de-anchoring was already elevated before the pandemic. the chart shows the sharp deterioration in the inflation outlook following the pandemic shock, with the end-of-horizon projection for hicp dropping to 1.3 per cent in the june 2020 forecast. end-of-horizon projections for hicp inflation and hicp inflation excluding energy and food ecb/eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections and ecb calculations. note: the latest observations are for the march 2022 ecb staff macroeconomic projections. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-06-22 | 0.206 | these developments are reflected in longer-term inflation expectations, which have increased, with most measures derived from financial markets and from expert surveys standing at around 2%. initial signs of above-target revisions to these measures, however, warrant close monitoring. the baseline inflation projections by eurosystem staff have been revised up significantly. these projections indicate that inflation will remain undesirably elevated for some time. they foresee annual inflation at 6.8% in 2022 before it is projected to decline to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. this means that headline inflation at the end of the projection horizon is projected to be slightly above our target. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.148 | the second factor that can underpin the anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations at the two per cent target is the re-assessment of the labour market. as shown in chart 27, a supportive macroeconomic environment and targeted labour market policies resulted in the labour market performing much stronger than had been expected during the pandemic, limiting the risk of long-term scarring effects. the latest ecb staff macroeconomic projections foresee a substantial further decline of the euro area unemployment rate over 2022-2024 to levels not seen in decades. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.138 | monetary policy statement press conference christine lagarde, president of the ecb, luis de guindos, vice-president of the ecb amsterdam, 9 june 2022 jump to the transcript of the questions and answers good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. i would like to thank president knot for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. high inflation is a major challenge for all of us. the governing council will make sure that inflation returns to our two per cent target over the medium term. in may inflation again rose significantly, mainly because of surging energy and food prices, including due to the impact of the war. but inflation pressures have broadened … |
The most representative speeches:
5.75 Topic 75: country; differential; dispersion; difference; average
5.75.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | country | 1 | 0.0528949 | differential | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 75 | differential | 2 | 0.0328563 | dispersion | 2 | 0.9997372 |
| 75 | dispersion | 3 | 0.0258605 | inflation differential | 3 | 0.9987727 |
| 75 | difference | 4 | 0.0257420 | diversity | 4 | 0.9978968 |
| 75 | average | 5 | 0.0242005 | standard deviation | 5 | 0.9970160 |
| 75 | growth | 6 | 0.0204062 | difference | 6 | 0.9970152 |
| 75 | percentage | 7 | 0.0187462 | growth differential | 7 | 0.9969711 |
| 75 | standard | 8 | 0.0177976 | deviation | 8 | 0.9966696 |
| 75 | factor | 9 | 0.0176791 | catch | 9 | 0.9963639 |
| 75 | unite | 10 | 0.0170862 | synchronisation | 10 | 0.9954772 |
| 75 | level | 11 | 0.0163748 | output growth | 11 | 0.9951812 |
| 75 | trend | 12 | 0.0155448 | samuelson | 12 | 0.9951739 |
| 75 | inflation differential | 13 | 0.0148333 | percentage | 13 | 0.9951671 |
| 75 | deviation | 14 | 0.0113948 | region | 14 | 0.9949165 |
| 75 | observe | 15 | 0.0112762 | balassa | 15 | 0.9949015 |
5.75.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the euro area and its future | Period_1 | 2008-07-15 | 0.611 | – this rate has broadly stabilised at around 1 percentage point. this dispersion level is similar to that of the 14 us metropolitan statistical areas, but is somewhat higher than that of the four us census regions. hence, impressive progress has been made, and i would argue that, prima facie, inflation dispersion in the euro area is not high by international standards. however, inflation differentials in the euro area are very persistent; in this respect, the euro area does indeed differ from the united states. most euro area countries that have exhibited higher than average inflation rates in recent years have been in this position for at least a decade. these include spain and greece. similar persistence – but on the opposite side – is observed in low-inflation countries such as germa… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Further integrating euro area economies ¿ some reflections | Period_1 | 2006-07-14 | 0.587 | the point is that they have been quite slow in coming. whereas some wage or inflation differentials are justified – and prove that monetary union promotes adjustments – there is a need to better understand the reasons for this apparent sluggish adjustment process. if we look at the cost side, in most countries domestic factors dominate external factors in generating inflation differentials. in particular, we have witnessed a sustained divergence of wage developments across the euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth. these differentials in the growth of unit labour costs have been the main sources of persistence. this suggests a link with differing levels of wage rigidities across the euro area. however, changes in profit margins have also contributed to inflat… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic integration in the euro area | Period_1 | 2006-04-06 | 0.570 | rigidities across the euro area. however, changes in profit margins also contributed to inflation differentials. imperfect competition and associated price rigidities across countries may also have been a factor in explaining inflation differentials. if i look at product groups, there has been a relatively higher price dispersion in the area of services. this is probably associated with the dispersion in services wage developments. by contrast, inflation dispersion was relatively low for tradeable goods. then, of course, products with relatively volatile price developments (energy, unprocessed food and processed food) also showed a high dispersion of price changes across countries. hence, there is a certain degree of structural diversity in inflation and cost developments among euro are… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic management in a large currency zone like the euro area | Period_1 | 2007-10-08 | 0.548 | diversity in perspective diversity within the euro area should be put in perspective, and i shall now look at three main types of divergence. whenever possible, i will compare the euro area with the united states, as the world’s only other industrialised economy of a comparable size. a) inflation dispersion in the euro area declined considerably in the 1980s and 1990s and is now on a par with that of the united states. impressive progress has been made, and inflation dispersion among euro area countries has broadly stabilised at a low level since the launch of the euro. to give you an example, the unweighted standard deviation of annual hicp inflation rates still stood at around 6 percentage points in late 1990, but this rate has broadly stabilised at around 1 percentage point since the… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The process of economic, monetary and financial integration in Europe | Period_1 | 2006-12-04 | 0.490 | the credit channel smoothes out 23% of such shocks, and the federal government 13%. 9 25% of the shock is not smoothed out. hence, in the united states, financial markets and financial institutions would contribute 62% to the absorption of state idiosyncratic shocks. the effect is very substantially higher than the effect of the federal budget. this is a very important result which puts into perspective the argument against the single currency based upon the absence of a significant federal budget and therefore the absence of a significant role for the fiscal channel to absorb asymmetric shocks at the level of the different states. we see in the case of the us that the fiscal channel is in fact modest. much more important is the financial channel, and it is an additional reason for the … |
| Philip R Lane: Interview in the Financial Times | Period_2 | 2020-02-03 | 0.138 | and there is no problem with inflation getting high. when you are in this kind of low zone – where the advanced economies and many emerging markets are – where inflation is super low and interest rates and our policy instruments are already quite extended, then a negative shock to inflation is going to be more visible because we cannot instantly correct it. the policy space is such that it takes time to restore inflation back to target when you have a low inflation and a low interest rate world with relatively small, temporary shocks to inflation, which are more visible and more persistent. so you’re not saying it hasn’t had any impact at all, you’re just saying the impact might be more visible here in europe, where we have very low inflation… first of all, low inflation means a small s… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in a pandemic - ensuring favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2020-12-01 | 0.108 | (net percentages of banks reporting a tightening of credit standards and contributing factors) ecb (october 2020 euro area bank lending survey). notes: “actual” values are changes that have occurred, while “expected” values are changes anticipated by banks. net percentages are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “tightened considerably” and “tightened somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “eased somewhat” and “eased considerably”. the net percentages for responses to questions related to contributing factors are defined as the difference between the percentage of banks reporting that the given factor contributed to a tightening and the percentage reporting that it contributed to an easing. “cost of funds and balance she… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in a pandemic - ensuring favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2020-12-01 | 0.090 | 01/12/2020 monetary policy in a pandemic: ensuring favourable financing conditions changes in demand for loans or credit lines to enterprises and contributing factors (net percentages of banks reporting an increase in demand and contributing factors) ecb (october 2020 euro area bank lending survey). notes: “actual” values are changes that have occurred, while “expected” values are changes anticipated by banks. net percentages for the questions on demand for loans are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “increased considerably” and “increased somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “decreased somewhat” and “decreased considerably”. the net percentages for responses to questions relating to contributing factors are defined … |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.089 | in any event, structural factors can only have a lasting negative impact on inflation if they seep into inflation expectations. this leads me to the third factor that may explain the apparent disconnect between the real economy and inflation. empirically, it is not straightforward to gauge the anchoring of inflation expectations. there can be differing interpretations depending on the approach used to define anchoring, as well as the measure and horizon of inflation expectations considered. |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.072 | 2 see, for instance, vega and winkelried (2005), walsh (2009) and svensson (2010). 3 it is fair to say, though, that among the group of industrial countries also those countries that did not adopt inflation targeting have seen on average, lower and less volatile inflation rates over past 20 years than before. how important inflation targeting has been in bringing down inflation rates is still the subject of an active academic debate in relation to other factors such as “good luck”. 4 see svensson, lars ( 1997) 5 bean, charles (2009) and (2013) |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.074 | in 2009 volatility was already about four times higher than average volatility since 2000. output growth volatility is defined as the eight-quarter rolling standard deviation of quarterly gdp growth rates. 6. schnabel, i. (2020), “when markets fail – the need for collective action in tackling climate change”, speech at the european sustainable finance summit, frankfurt am main, 28 september. in a recent survey conducted by the ecb, around 80% of firms saw increased risks of interruptions to their production because of climate change. see ecb (2022), “the impact of climate change on activity and prices – insights from a survey of leading firms”, economic bulletin, issue 4. 7. european drought observatory, drought in europe, august 2022. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.061 | in comparing inflation dynamics across regions, chart 22 shows that the increase in core inflation has been much higher in the united states relative to the euro area. two basic factors behind this are the larger contribution from supply bottlenecks to inflation and the higher levels of domestic demand in the united states, which is shown in chart 23. |
| Isabel Schnabel: The globalisation of inflation | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.061 | this can also be seen when looking at the evolution of financial market expectations. about a year ago, investors were pricing in a long-term inflation outlook in the euro area that was significantly different from that in the united states. a widely used measure of longer term market based inflation expectations, the expected average inflation rate over a five year period starting in five years’ time as priced by financial markets, was about a full percentage point lower in the euro area (slide 4, right-hand side). last week, the difference was just 20 basis points, a fraction of the pre-pandemic average, suggesting that future expected inflation trends are also assessed to be broadly similar despite the prevailing differences in the relative importance of the current drivers of underl… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.054 | : credit standards on loans to euro area firms (left panel) and households for house purchase (right panel) and contributing factors ecb (bls). notes: net percentages are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “tightened considerably” and “tightened somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “eased somewhat” and “eased considerably”. “risk perceptions” for loans to firms is the unweighted average of “general economic situation and outlook”, “industry or firm-specific situation and outlook/borrower’s creditworthiness” and “risk related to the collateral demanded”. “risk perceptions” for loans to households for house purchase is the unweighted average of “general economic situation and outlook”, “housing market prospects, includi… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.052 | however, an inflation increase due to a supply-side shock cannot be expected to significantly alleviate the debt burden over the medium term. ecb staff simulations show that the resulting decline in real growth, higher interest payments and deteriorating primary deficits would increase public debt ratios over longer horizons (slide 11, right-hand chart). rising interest rates as a result of tighter monetary policy or higher public debt lift up the interest rate- growth differential for a given rate of potential growth. the negative interest rate-growth differential before the pandemic helped to contain, or even reduce, debt-to-gdp ratios. the differential still stands near historic lows but is about to become less favourable (slide 12, left-hand chart). against this backdrop, current ci… |
The most representative speeches:
5.76 Topic 76: european; parliament; report; committee; european parliament
5.76.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | european | 1 | 0.0680348 | european parliament | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 76 | parliament | 2 | 0.0421292 | parliament | 2 | 0.9994742 |
| 76 | report | 3 | 0.0395241 | annual report | 3 | 0.9991236 |
| 76 | committee | 4 | 0.0369191 | committee | 4 | 0.9988607 |
| 76 | european parliament | 5 | 0.0343141 | monetary affair | 5 | 0.9988601 |
| 76 | president | 6 | 0.0311302 | affair | 6 | 0.9987734 |
| 76 | annual | 7 | 0.0220125 | hear | 7 | 0.9981163 |
| 76 | affair | 8 | 0.0165130 | honourable | 8 | 0.9975431 |
| 76 | annual report | 9 | 0.0153552 | draft | 9 | 0.9971957 |
| 76 | hear | 10 | 0.0149211 | report | 10 | 0.9970143 |
| 76 | discuss | 11 | 0.0149211 | honourable member | 11 | 0.9969735 |
| 76 | statement | 12 | 0.0140527 | draft resolution | 12 | 0.9969308 |
| 76 | monetary affair | 13 | 0.0133291 | ecb annual report | 13 | 0.9969280 |
| 76 | remark | 14 | 0.0131844 | ecb annual | 14 | 0.9965797 |
| 76 | resolution | 15 | 0.0120266 | president | 15 | 0.9963124 |
5.76.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: European Central Bank’s Annual Report 2005 | Period_1 | 2006-05-02 | 0.372 | madam chairwoman, members of the committee on economic and monetary affairs, it is an honour for me to present to you the ecb’s annual report for 2005. the presentation of the annual report is a core element of the ecb’s accountability vis-à-vis the european parliament. as we have always stressed, the ecb places the greatest value on the fulfilment of its accountability obligations, and i am looking forward to a fruitful dialogue with you. in my introductory statement, i will first briefly review economic and monetary developments in 2005 and in early 2006, focusing on the monetary policy decisions of the ecb. i will then address a number of the policy issues examined in detail in the annual report which i consider to be of particular relevance. |
| Lucas Papademos: Presentation of the European Central Bank’s Annual Report for 2004 | Period_1 | 2005-04-28 | 0.354 | madam chairman, members of the committee on economic and monetary affairs, it is an honour for me to present to you today the ecb’s annual report 2004. the presentation of the annual report is an essential part of the ecb’s accountability vis-à-vis the european parliament. as you know, the ecb accords the utmost importance to the fulfilment of its accountability obligations, and i am looking forward to a fruitful dialogue with you. in my introductory statement, i will first briefly review economic and monetary developments over the past year and give our assessment of the economic outlook and the monetary policy stance. i will then focus on a number of policy issues examined in the annual report which i consider to be of particular importance. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2007 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-07-14 | 0.318 | other issues raised in the european parliament’s draft resolution on the ecb’s annual report 2007 mister president, honourable members of the european parliament, in your draft resolution you raise a large number of issues of relevance to the ecb. i would like to assure you that we will consider your remarks and requests with great care and report back to you accordingly. i will now briefly elaborate on some of these points. |
| Lucas Papademos: European Central Bank’s Annual Report 2006 | Period_1 | 2007-04-24 | 0.307 | madam chair, honourable members of the committee on economic and monetary affairs, it is a great privilege and pleasure for me to present to you today the ecb’s annual report 2006. as you know, this is a key aspect of the ecb’s accountability obligations towards the european parliament and we welcome this opportunity to explain our policy decisions and report on our activities to you. in my introductory remarks, i will first briefly review the economic and monetary developments in 2006 and early 2007 and explain the reasons behind the monetary policy decisions that we have taken. i would then like to address a number of policy issues examined in the annual report, including issues pertaining to the stability and integration of europe’s financial system. before doing so, however, i would… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2005 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2006-10-31 | 0.291 | other issues raised in the european parliament’s draft resolution on the ecb’s annual report 2005 mister president, honourable members of the european parliament, in your draft resolution you raise a large number of issues of relevance to the ecb and i would like to assure you that we will consider them with great care. on two issues i already should like to share our assessment, in view of their topical nature and the exchanges of views i and my fellow members of the executive board had with you on these issues. in the draft resolution, the ecb is called upon to carry out further analysis in the area of hedge funds. amid the increasing attention being paid to the activities of hedge funds, i think that it would be unfair |
| Vítor Constâncio: Presentation of the European Central Bank Annual Report 2016 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2017-04-18 | 0.363 | vítor constâncio: presentation of the european central bank annual report 2016 to the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory remarks by mr vítor constâncio, vice-president of the european central bank, to the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament, brussels, 10 april 2017. * * * mr chairman, honourable members of the committee on economic and monetary affairs, ladies and gentlemen, i am honoured to be here today before your committee to present the ecb annual report for 2016. the annual report is an essential element of our democratic accountability. it supports the democratic debate regarding our decisions. and our accountability does not stop with our reporting obligations. this occasion ensures that our annual… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2019-09-24 | 0.342 | mario draghi: hearing at the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory statement by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, before the hearing at the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament, brussels, 23 february 2019. * * * introduction madam chair, honourable members of the economic and monetary affairs committee, ladies and gentlemen, i would like to start by congratulating all of you on your election, and you, madam chair, on your recent appointment as chair of this committee. it is a pleasure to appear before this committee in this new legislative term and before my term as ecb president comes to an end. the legitimacy of the ecb’s independence, as enshrined in the eu treaties, crucially relies … |
| Mario Draghi: Introductory statement to the plenary debate of the European Parliament on the European Central Bank’s Annual Report 2016 | Period_2 | 2018-02-06 | 0.332 | mario draghi: introductory statement to the plenary debate of the european parliament on the european central bank’s annual report 2016 introductory statement by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, to the plenary debate of the european parliament on the european central bank’s annual report 2016, strasbourg, 5 february 2017. * * * mr president of the european parliament, mr vice-president of the commission, honourable members of the european parliament, i am very pleased to be here to discuss with you the ecb’s activities and your draft resolution on the ecb’s annual report 2016. today’s debate represents a good opportunity to take stock of progress made and discuss the way forward. a decade ago, the global financial crisis was starting. today, while further efforts… |
| Luis de Guindos: Presentation of the European Central Bank Annual Report 2018 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2019-04-01 | 0.325 | luis de guindos: presentation of the european central bank annual report 2018 to the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory remarks by mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, to the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament, brussels, 1 april 2019. * * * mr chairman, honourable members of the committee on economic and monetary affairs, ladies and gentlemen, i am honoured to appear for the first time before this committee in my capacity as ecb vice- president and i am delighted to present the ecb annual report for 2018. the annual report is the ecb’s main vehicle for discharging its accountability obligations, as stipulated in the eu treaties, but of course our relationship with the european … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Presentation of the European Central Bank Annual Report 2016 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2017-04-18 | 0.287 | 4 see the box entitled “diversity of banks’ business models and adjustment to the low interest rate environment”, annual report 2016, ecb, 2017. 5 see presentation of the ecb annual report on supervisory activities 2016 to the european parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee – introductory statement by danièle nouy, chair of the supervisory board of the ecb, brussels, 23 march 2017 6 “the decisions facing europe” , second jean monnet lecture by the president of the european parliament, emilio colombo, florence, 9 november 1978 5/5 |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.284 | hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory statement by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, at the hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament (by videoconference) frankfurt am main, 15 november 2021 we are nearing the end of the year, which means that you will soon reach the midway point of this legislative term. for my part, | have just completed the first two years of my mandate at the ecb. i’m sure that, on taking office, none of us thought that a global pandemic would be at the top of our agendas. but in the face of turbulence, we came together as europeans and mounted an unprecedented response to protect people’s lives and livelihoods. the challenge is not over yet. not only the co… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-11-29 | 0.281 | christine lagarde: hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory statement by ms christine lagarde president of the european central bank, at the hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament, brussels, 28 november 2022. accompanying charts of the speech over the past 12 months, the ecb has embarked on a swift and comprehensive process of normalising monetary policy. first, we ended net asset purchases in a matter of a few months. next, we started raising our policy rates at their fastest pace ever. in my short remarks today, i will briefly look back on the past year and focus on the key actions taken by the ecb, and the eu more broadly, to address people’s concerns. i will also address the two to… |
| Luis de Guindos: Presentation of the European Central Bank annual report 2021 | Period_3 | 2022-05-04 | 0.255 | luis de guindos: presentation of the european central bank annual report 2021 introductory remarks by mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, at the econ committee of the european parliament, brussels, 28 april 2022. * * * i am very happy to appear again in person before this committee to present the ecb’s annual report for 2021.1 the last time i joined you here in brussels physically was 1 april 2019 and many things have happened since then. the annual report and today’s hearing are an important pillar of the ecb’s accountability relationship with this parliament. that is why today we are also publishing our written feedback to your resolution on our annual report for 2020.2 in response to the call included in your resolution last year, the ecb annual report no… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-06-22 | 0.242 | hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament speech by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, at the hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament brussels, 20 june 2022 it is a pleasure to be here again for our second regular hearing this year and my first in brussels since the start of the pandemic two years ago. the economic and geopolitical landscape facing europe has changed dramatically following the unjustified aggression by russia towards ukraine. over the past few weeks and months, europe – thanks also to the work of this parliament – has responded forcefully by imposing sanctions and implementing measures to reduce its dependence on russia and to cushion the economic impact of the war. over the sa… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-09-26 | 0.229 | hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament speech by christine lagarde, president of the ecb, at the hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament brussels, 26 september 2022 it is a pleasure to be back here in brussels with you for our third hearing this year. russia’s unjustified war of aggression on ukraine continues to cast a shadow over europe. my thoughts are with the ukrainian people suffering the senseless atrocities of the war. the economic consequences for the euro area have continued to unfold since we last met in june and the outlook is darkening. inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above our target for an extended period. at our meeting earlier this month, the governing council… |
The most representative speeches:
5.77 Topic 77: treaty; independence; institutional; mandate; independent
5.77.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | treaty | 1 | 0.0529284 | independence | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 77 | independence | 2 | 0.0475356 | independent | 2 | 0.9993867 |
| 77 | institutional | 3 | 0.0312447 | treaty | 3 | 0.9991231 |
| 77 | mandate | 4 | 0.0289977 | bank independence | 4 | 0.9990795 |
| 77 | independent | 5 | 0.0229308 | central bank independence | 5 | 0.9988604 |
| 77 | objective | 6 | 0.0188862 | institutional | 6 | 0.9983336 |
| 77 | responsibility | 7 | 0.0188862 | maastricht treaty | 7 | 0.9979840 |
| 77 | principle | 8 | 0.0175379 | independent central | 8 | 0.9978953 |
| 77 | political | 9 | 0.0143921 | independent central bank | 9 | 0.9976323 |
| 77 | set | 10 | 0.0132686 | maastricht | 10 | 0.9974592 |
| 77 | bank independence | 11 | 0.0132686 | statute | 11 | 0.9967989 |
| 77 | central bank independence | 12 | 0.0128192 | responsibility | 12 | 0.9967092 |
| 77 | establish | 13 | 0.0118081 | enshrine | 13 | 0.9965343 |
| 77 | ensure | 14 | 0.0116957 | institutional framework | 14 | 0.9964955 |
| 77 | public | 15 | 0.0114710 | principle | 15 | 0.9952566 |
5.77.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Monetary policy and the euro | Period_1 | 2008-04-16 | 0.405 | the ecb’s independence let me now focus on the second feature of the institutional framework for the single currency. in order to ensure that the single monetary policy will effectively pursue price stability, the provisions of the treaty have granted the ecb far-reaching independence. central bank independence is a necessary precondition for monetary policy to be credibly and effectively geared to price stability, since it protects monetary policy from detrimental political interferences. in the absence of central bank independence, monetary policy can at any time be exposed to political pressures, motivated, for example, by short-term or short-sighted policy considerations, to boost output temporarily in the short run at the expense of higher inflation in the longer run. the public wi… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Ten years of the euro - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.320 | granted that the euro would be able to establish itself so quickly as a stable and internationally recognised currency. this was only possible because the ecb and the national central banks of the eurosystem have solid institutional foundations. these foundations are the treaty negotiated in maastricht in 1991 and the statute of the escb. the treaty and the statute of the escb are clear: the primary objective of the eurosystem is to ensure price stability. the ecb and the national central banks of the eurosystem are independent so that they can pursue this goal. neither the ecb, nor the national central banks, nor the members of their decision-making bodies may seek or receive any instructions from anybody. this applies to european as well as national institutions. they, for their part,… |
| Jürgen Stark: Monetary policy and the euro | Period_1 | 2008-04-16 | 0.314 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Monetary policy and the euro | Period_1 | 2008-04-16 | 0.272 | democratic legitimacy it is important to note that the far-reaching independence granted to the ecb by the treaty does not mean that it lacks democratic legitimacy. the principle of democratic legitimacy must be looked at in conjunction with the complementary principles of the separation of powers, the rule of law and the relationship to the ec treaty. the independence of the central bank from political influence represents an attempt to ensure that the power of the state serves the public interest. the ecb has been established by the treaty, which has been ratified by all member states and the members of the ecb decision-making bodies are all appointed by the member states’ democratically elected representatives. furthermore, the competency for monetary policy is transferred within the… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: The first lustrum of the ECB | Period_1 | 2003-06-27 | 0.272 | bolster the success of economic and monetary union (emu). throughout the five years of its existence, the ecb has stated that a strong euro is good for a strong europe. i would now like to add that a strong europe is good for a strong euro. if the european union is re-writing its rulebook by giving itself a constitution, does this mean profound changes to the provisions relating to the ecb and to monetary union in general? throughout the process of drafting the constitution, the ecb has consistently advocated that the economic constitution of the eu - the basic set of rules and provisions for emu as laid down in the maastricht treaty - is sound both in terms of the objectives set and the allocation of responsibilities between different actors and levels of government. the convention app… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Stormy times - how is the ECB handling them? | Period_2 | 2015-11-30 | 0.218 | to achieve this, the ecb needs to be independent; also independent from political influence. the independence of central banks is a relatively new, but now undisputed, achievement. the deutsche bundesbank was the trailblazer in this regard: since 1957 it has been the very model of an independent central bank. since the 1990s most industrialised countries have adopted this model in one form or another. indeed, the ecb itself was also modelled on the bundesbank. why does a central bank need to be independent? on a matter as important as money, people justifiably want to see tight controls. history has shown independent central banks to be the most successful in keeping the value of money stable. the underlying principle is that responsibility for maintaining price stability should be in t… |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.161 | economies, the bulk of the money stock takes the form of bank deposits. money is the liability of the banking system as a whole, and it circulates electronically. for money to be “single”, then, the payments system has to work smoothly across the jurisdiction – that is actually one of our statutory tasks – and the banking system that creates money has to be sound. it is above all for this reason that we attach great importance to high-quality banking supervision, a task that has been entrusted to the ecb since november last year. and it is for the same reason that we act as lender of last resort to solvent banks in the event of a liquidity crisis. these functions are not designed to protect individual banks per se. they aim to ensure confidence in deposits and their continuous fungibili… |
| Peter Praet: Have unconventional policies overstretched central bank independence? Challenges for accountability and transparency in the wake of the crisis | Period_2 | 2017-03-30 | 0.157 | peter praet: have unconventional policies overstretched central bank independence? challenges for accountability and transparency in the wake of the crisis keynote address by mr peter praet, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the “symposium on building the financial system of the 21st century: an agenda for europe and the united states”, frankfurt am main, 29 march 2017. * * * i would like to thank claus brand for his contribution to this speech. evolution in consensus on the role of central banks and central bank independence in the course of monetary history, consensus on the role of monetary policy and on the appropriate degree of independence of the central bank has fluctuated considerably. during major crises, the pendulum has tended to swing from one ex… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-07-18 | 0.136 | mr chairman, honourable members, allow me to start by congratulating all of you on your election to this house, and you, mr chairman, on your appointment as chair of the committee in the new legislative period. the architects of monetary union conceived the ecb as a central bank with a clear mandate and with strong provisions for its independence. but for a public institution in a democratic society, independence can never come without being commensurately transparent and accountable to the elected representatives of the people. our regular exchanges of views are a key channel for the ecb to discharge its duty of central bank accountability; hence, they plays an essential role in providing the ecb with the necessary legitimacy to fulfil the tasks assigned to it by the treaties. to under… |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.136 | consequence of the central bank renouncing to apply strictly and in full the provisions of the treaty. the ecb’s support for greece is based on its statute but also on the assumption in the treaty that the status of each member of the euro area remains inviolate. indeed, the same conviction and the same independence from the political process led us in the summer of 2012, when the sovereign debt crisis endangered the integrity of the euro area, to resolutely declare our determination to defend the single currency. to sum up, the balance we achieved with our interventions during the greek crisis was fully within our mandate; it respected the political commitment to the single currency contained in the treaty, but at the same time we implemented that commitment within the limits of our st… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.127 | second, central bank independence is important for safeguarding stable prices. today, central banks in almost all advanced economies and many emerging market economies are politically independent. the “great moderation” that took off in the 1980s built on these two pillars — a narrow, well-defined mandate and central bank independence. over time, a clear commitment to price stability has anchored inflation expectations at very low levels. maintaining this level of trust is what will guide the response of central banks to the challenges we are facing today. |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.114 | police had exceeded their mandate. to put it simply: the ruling made it clear that the police were only responsible for public security, and not for safeguarding aesthetic interests. the verdict signified an important step in the development of modern societies. acknowledging that their actions intrude on the lives of citizens, public sector authorities began limiting their actions to what is strictly necessary to achieve the established objectives. since then, proportionality has evolved to become a fundamental principle in many legal systems. the proportionality principle is a cornerstone of the institutional structure of the european union, laid down in article 5 of the treaty on the european union. and all its institutions are bound by it in the pursuit of their respective mandates…. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.072 | monetary policy tightening and the green transition speech by isabel schnabel, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the international symposium on central bank independence, sveriges riksbank, stockholm stockholm, 10 january 2023 the green transition will fundamentally transform our societies.[1] protecting our planet requires unprecedented large-scale investments in technical innovations and renewable energies to bring our economies on a path towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions. as our experience over the past two decades demonstrates, the relatively large upfront costs incurred in these capital-intensive expenditures are particularly susceptible to changes in the cost of credit. low and declining interest rates have measurably contributed to the fall in the “levelised co… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.070 | europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law lectio magistralis by fabio panetta, member of the executive board of the ecb, on the occasion of the conferral of an honorary degree in law by the university of cassino and southern lazio cassino, 6 april 2022 i am deeply honoured and proud to receive this honorary degree in law from the university of cassino and southern lazio. it comes forty years after i graduated with my first degree in economics, but the emotion is the same. what’s more, it is an honorary degree in a subject that has formed an important part of my work experience. in a certain way, i have always been a student of the law. i joined the banca d’italia in 1985 and since then i have devoted my entire professional life to working in public institutions. as central bankers,… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-02-10 | 0.055 | christine lagarde: hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament introductory statement (via video conference) by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the hearing of the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament, frankfurt am main, 7 february 202 2. * * * accompanying charts: www.bis.org/review/r220210b_charts.pdf on this day in 1992, the leaders of twelve european countries decided to transform the european community into the european union by signing the maastricht treaty. thirty years on, europe continues to benefit from many of the accomplishments of that treaty. the treaty established european citizenship, including the right to move and settle freely in the eu. it granted this parliament… |
The most representative speeches:
5.78 Topic 78: paper; journal; economics; review; reserve
5.78.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | paper | 1 | 0.0609928 | journal | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 78 | journal | 2 | 0.0339263 | reserve bank | 2 | 0.9992109 |
| 78 | economics | 3 | 0.0274979 | federal reserve bank | 3 | 0.9989479 |
| 78 | review | 4 | 0.0220846 | american | 4 | 0.9986856 |
| 78 | reserve | 5 | 0.0194626 | economic review | 5 | 0.9985974 |
| 78 | federal | 6 | 0.0191242 | american economic | 6 | 0.9983344 |
| 78 | federal reserve | 7 | 0.0187859 | nber | 7 | 0.9979849 |
| 78 | bank | 8 | 0.0176863 | hole | 8 | 0.9978084 |
| 78 | international | 9 | 0.0164176 | economics | 9 | 0.9976304 |
| 78 | reserve bank | 10 | 0.0145567 | jackson hole | 10 | 0.9975019 |
| 78 | american | 11 | 0.0144722 | jackson | 11 | 0.9974144 |
| 78 | federal reserve bank | 12 | 0.0137955 | american economic review | 12 | 0.9973697 |
| 78 | nber | 13 | 0.0125267 | symposium | 13 | 0.9965822 |
| 78 | economic review | 14 | 0.0120193 | monetary economics | 14 | 0.9964940 |
| 78 | evidence | 15 | 0.0118501 | kansas | 15 | 0.9960980 |
5.78.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.530 | de long, bradford j. (1997), “america’s peacetime inflation: the 1970s”, in romer, christina d., and romer, david h., editors, reducing inflation: motivation and strategy, the university of chicago press for the national bureau of economic research. dolado, juan , pedrero, ramon marıa-dolores, and ruge-murcia, francisco j. (2004), “nonlinear monetary policy rules: some new evidence for the u.s.”, studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics, volume 8, issue 3, article 2. eickmeier, sandra, and hofmann, boris (2009), “monetary policy and private sector (im)balances in the u.s.”, bundesbank and european central bank, mimeo. friedman, milton (1972), “have monetary policies failed?”, american economic review, papers and proceedings, 62 (1-2), 11-18. kydland, finn, and prescott, edward (19… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Careful with (the D) words! | Period_1 | 2008-11-27 | 0.503 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.500 | atkins, ralph, and barber, lionel (2007), “under fire, on target”, on the financial times, 18 may 2007, page 9. barro, robert j., and gordon, david (1983a), “a positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model”, journal of political economy, 91(4), 589-610. barro, robert j., and gordon, david (1983b), “rules, discretion, and reputation in a model of monetary policy”, journal of monetary economics, 12(1), 101-121. batini, nicoletta, and nelson, edward (2001), “the lag from monetary policy actions to inflation: friedman revisited”, international finance, 4(3), 381-400. bernanke, benjamin, reinhart, vincent., and sack, brian (2004), “monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment”, finance and economics discussion series 2004-48, federal reserve board. bla… |
| Jürgen Stark: Lessons for central bankers from the history of the Phillips Curve | Period_1 | 2008-06-16 | 0.481 | the ultimate lesson that i draw from the vicissitudes of the phillips curve in the half of a century behind us is that we should all beware of models that short-circuit the workings of a complex market economy in a single equation. thank you. references benati, luca (2008a), “investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes”, quarterly journal of economics, august 2008, forthcoming. benati, l. (2008b), “money, inflation, and new keynesian models”, ecb working paper, forthcoming, bernanke, benjamin s. (2006), “the benefits of price stability”, speech delivered at the center for economic policy studies and on the occasion of the seventy-fifth anniversary of the woodrow wilson school of public and international affairs, princeton university, princeton, new jersey, february 24, 2… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Lessons for monetary policy from the recent crisis | Period_1 | 2011-01-20 | 0.478 | 3 see eggertson g. and m. woodford (2003), “the zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy,” brookings papers on economic activity, 34, pp. 139–211; and walsh c. (2010), “using monetary policy to stabilize economic activity,” in financial stability and macroeconomic policy, 2009 jackson hole symposium, federal reserve bank of kansas city, pp. 245–296. 4 see orphanides a. and s. van norden (2002), “the unreliability of output-gap estimates in real time,” review of economics and statistics 84, pp. 569–583; and orphanides a. and s. van norden (2005), “the reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time,” journal of money, credit, and banking, 37, pp. 583–601. 5 see bini smaghi l. (2010), “could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial cr… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Developing models for policy analysis in central banks | Period_2 | 2017-09-28 | 0.491 | 14 see, for instance, garcía-schmidt, m. and m. woodford (2015), “are low interest rates deflationary? a paradox of perfect-foresight analysis”, nber working paper no. 21614; gabaix, x. (2016), “a behavioral new keynesian model”, nber working paper no. 22954; and farhi, e. and i. werning (2017), “monetary policy, bounded rationality and incomplete markets”, nber working paper no. 23281. 15 blanchard, o., g. lorenzoni and j. p. l’huillier (2017), “short-run effects of lower productivity growth. a twist on the secular stagnation hypothesis”, journal of policy modeling, 2017, issn 0161–8938. 16 blanchard, o., e. cerutti and l. summers (2016), “inflation and activity – two explorations and their monetary policy implications”, ecb, inflation and unemployment in europe, conference proceedings… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for future monetary policy frameworks - a European perspective | Period_2 | 2016-11-09 | 0.473 | tool”, both presented at the jackson hole economic policy symposium, federal reserve bank of kansas city. 14 see fischer, s. (2016), “why are interest rates so low? causes and implications”, remarks at the economic club of new york, october; gagnon, e., b. k. johannsen and d. lópez-salido (2016) “understanding the new normal: the role of demographics”, federal reserve board finance and economics discussion series 2016– 080. 15 yellen, j. (2016), “the federal reserve’s monetary policy toolkit: past, present and future”, remarks at the jackson hole economic policy symposium, federal reserve bank of kansas city; see also reifschneider, d. (2016), “gauging the ability of the fomc to respond to future recessions”, federal reserve board finance and economics discussion series 2016–068. 6/6 |
| Vítor Constâncio: Past and future of the European Central Bank monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-05-11 | 0.458 | alves, n. and c.r. marques (2004), “money in the ecb’s monetary policy strategy: a reassessment”, banco de portugal, mimeo, december 2004, later published as banco de portugal working paper no. 20/2007 “is the euro area m3 abandoning us?“. bernanke, b. (2017), “monetary policy in a new era”, conference on rethinking macroeconomic policy, peterson institute for international economics, 12-13 october 2017. beyer, a. and r. farmer (2002), “natural rate doubts”, ecb working paper 121. blanchard, o. and l. summers (1986), “hysteresis and the european unemployment problem”, nber macroeconomics annual, vol. 1. blanchard, o., g. dell’ariccia and p. mauro (2010), “rethinking macroeconomic policy”, journal of money, credit and banking, 42:199–215 and blanchard, o. and d. leigh (2013), “growth for… |
| Peter Praet: Forward guidance and the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2013-08-07 | 0.409 | campbell, j., c. evans, j. fisher and a. justiniano, (2012). “macroeconomic effects of federal reserve forward guidance”, brookings papers on economic activity, spring 2012. clouse, j., d. henderson, a. orphanides, d. small and p. tinsley, (2000). “monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero”, be press journal of macroeconomics: topic in macroeconomics, 3 (1): article 12. eggertsson, g. and m. woodford, (2003). “the zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy”, brookings papers on economic activity, 2003 (1). gürkaynak, r. b. sack and e. swanson, (2005). “do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements”, international journal of central banking, 1 (1), 55–93. krugman, p. (1998). “it’s baaack: j… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Past and future of the European Central Bank monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-05-11 | 0.407 | frameworks”, lecture at the instituto superior de economia e gestão, lisbon. see also duffie, d. and a. krishnamurthy (2016), “pass-through efficiency in the fed’s new monetary policy setting”, presented at the annual economic policy symposium, federal reserve bank of kansas city; greenwood r., s. hanson and j. stein (2016), “the federal reserve’s balance sheet as a financial-stability tool”, 2016 economic policy symposium proceedings. jackson hole: federal reserve bank of kansas city. see for instance blanchard, o., g. dell’ariccia and p. mauro (2010), “rethinking [50] macroeconomic policy”, journal of money, credit and banking, 42: 199–215 and krugman, p. (2014), “inflation targets reconsidered”, ecb forum on central banking, may 2014. constâncio, v. (2016), “challenges for future mon… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.408 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.379 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.363 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.325 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.314 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.79 Topic 79: shock; demand; supply; aggregate; aggregate demand
5.79.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | shock | 1 | 0.1811811 | supply shock | 1 | 0.9995617 |
| 79 | demand | 2 | 0.1003463 | aggregate demand | 2 | 0.9994743 |
| 79 | supply | 3 | 0.0839193 | shock | 3 | 0.9994741 |
| 79 | aggregate | 4 | 0.0327476 | supply | 4 | 0.9989482 |
| 79 | aggregate demand | 5 | 0.0222296 | demand shock | 5 | 0.9986845 |
| 79 | supply shock | 6 | 0.0217569 | hit | 6 | 0.9984227 |
| 79 | hit | 7 | 0.0177388 | demand | 7 | 0.9980695 |
| 79 | persistent | 8 | 0.0167933 | aggregate | 8 | 0.9979827 |
| 79 | adverse | 9 | 0.0152570 | adverse | 9 | 0.9970187 |
| 79 | lead | 10 | 0.0145479 | persistent | 10 | 0.9969302 |
| 79 | temporary | 11 | 0.0130116 | shock hit | 11 | 0.9969271 |
| 79 | nature | 12 | 0.0130116 | adverse shock | 12 | 0.9963183 |
| 79 | output | 13 | 0.0124207 | push | 13 | 0.9960120 |
| 79 | negative | 14 | 0.0111207 | temporary | 14 | 0.9960090 |
| 79 | demand shock | 15 | 0.0105298 | economic shock | 15 | 0.9957927 |
5.79.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.191 | closely related to the present discounted value of future expected short-term rates, thus giving a prominent role to central bank credibility and communication. 26 given that inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon even in a globalised world, theories asserting that china is exporting deflation or inflation should be viewed as overly simplistic. globalisation forces materialise as external shocks, which should in principle affect relative prices, rather than the overall inflation rate in the long run. however, as is often the case in economics, matters become particularly complex when we move to analyse higher frequencies. in the medium run, whether terms-of-trade developments – like increases in oil and commodity prices or cheaper imports – exert positive or negative pressure on … |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Economic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic (why) are they different? | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.169 | 3.3 shocks as with monetary policy, the difference in the shocks hitting the two economies may explain the varying degrees of fiscal activism. in theory, an economy which is hit principally by demand shocks should make greater use of anti-cyclical budget policies than an economy hit mainly by supply shocks. this is a topic on which, as far as i know, no empirical studies have been conducted to date and it is thus a particularly interesting field of research. a hypothesis worth examining is the extent to which the greater frequency of demand shocks in the united states has justified greater fiscal activism in an anti-cyclical direction. in the euro area, by contrast, the adoption of active budget policies ought to have been discouraged by the greater frequency of supply shocks. |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Economic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic (why) are they different? | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.140 | years the euro area has been worse hit by “supply shocks” than the united states. a supply shock tends to have an effect on growth with the opposite sign to that of inflation. one example is the decline in total factor productivity (tfp) in the early part of this decade which brought upward pressure to bear on inflation at a time when economic activity was slowing down, as occurred following the bursting of the dot.com bubble. indeed, available evidence seems to suggest that the exacerbation of negative supply shocks is a recurring feature of economic slowdown phases in the euro area. as a result of that phenomenon, inflation in the euro area tends to react to an economic slowdown less rapidly than it does in the united states. this difference may explain why, especially in cyclical slo… |
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy in a changing world ¿ commitment, strategy and credibility | Period_1 | 2006-12-07 | 0.131 | partly as a result of these developments, estimates of the potential output growth in the euro area have been revised downwards over the past few years and are now close to the lower bound of the range of 2.0 % to 2.5% of potential growth, published by the ecb in 1998, just before the launch of the euro. 4 [see chart 10] however, annual productivity growth (per person employed) in the euro area has increased more recently, rising from 0.4% in early 2005 to 1.4% in the second quarter of 2006, and we expect this level to remain broadly stable over the coming quarters. this improvement is confined to the industrial sector, which is more affected by cyclical developments. in the services sector, labour productivity growth has remained subdued, with an annual rate of growth of only 0.6% in t… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The euro area and its monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-09-11 | 0.121 | as i mentioned before, this evidence poses a puzzle. by placing the great burden of macroeconomic adjustment on volumes rather than prices, nominal rigidities tend to increase – not decrease – the volatility of real activity that an economy would experience at any level of inflation volatility. indeed, symmetrically, stabilising inflation at levels consistent with the central bank’s objective is more costly – and thus less likely to happen – in economies where prices are slow to respond to innovations. bearing in mind the microeconomics of price adjustments in continental europe, one would thus expect to see the euro area in the upper- right-hand quadrant of the volatilities scatterplot. instead, as the scatterplot makes clear, the volatilities of both inflation and detrended output hav… |
| Peter Praet: Current issues of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2014-07-04 | 0.241 | how should monetary policy respond to such negative shocks in energy prices? in general, the optimal monetary policy response to risks to price stability depends on the specific nature of the shock. for a wide variety of shocks – such as demand shocks – a prompt reaction will not only preserve price stability but will also stabilise the economy. for instance, a negative global demand shock pushes down both inflation and growth. here, a decisive monetary policy stimulus helps to stabilise output and inflation at the same time – there is no trade-off between the two. but for other types of shocks, such as supply shocks, a trade-off may occur between stabilising inflation and stabilising growth, requiring a different monetary policy response. for instance, a positive oil supply shock exert… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.237 | climate change and the monetary policy strategy to appreciate how climate change may affect monetary policy, it is useful to first recall the basic principles of how central banks decide on their actions. broadly speaking, implementing monetary policy is the practice of identifying the nature, persistence and magnitude of the shocks hitting our economy. policymakers typically differentiate between two broad categories of shocks. the first is demand shocks. these are shocks that are “benign” or manageable from the perspective of monetary policy because they pull inflation, growth and employment in the same direction – a “divine coincidence” which does not pose a dilemma to central banks.6 the second category relates to supply-side shocks. these shocks are less easy to accommodate for cen… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.199 | notes: the chart presents the decomposition of euro area hicp inflation into structural shocks based on the new area- wide model (nawm) ii. the mark-up shock group consists of the shocks to the wage mark-up, the domestic price and export price mark-ups, as well as the import price mark-up. the supply shock group comprises the persistent and the transitory component of the model’s permanent technology shock, and the transitory technology shock. the demand and financial shock group includes the shocks to government consumption, import demand, export demand preferences, monetary policy, as well as the domestic and external risk premium shocks, the shock to the survival rate of the wholesale banks, and the shock to the mark-down parameter of the retail banks. the “other” shock group compris… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.184 | the first type is demand shocks, which pull both output and inflation in the same direction. the euro area sovereign debt crisis is a good example. as credit conditions tightened in parts of the euro area, both the public and private sector cut back sharply on spending, thereby pushing down prices and wages. such demand shocks typically call for determined policy action. by acting swiftly and forcefully, central banks minimise the adverse impact of a decline in consumption and investment on prices and wages. supply shocks – the second type – are different, as they typically pull inflation and output in opposite directions. a sharp exogenous increase in oil prices, for example, pushes inflation up while harming growth and employment. to minimise volatility in economic activity, supply sh… |
| Mario Draghi: How central banks meet the challenge of low inflation | Period_2 | 2016-02-05 | 0.173 | the response to too low inflation there are some who argue that, so long as we are experiencing mainly positive global supply shocks, there is no need for central banks to be overly responsive. we can simply redefine the medium-term horizon over which price stability is maintained and “wait it out” until inflation returns to our objective. indeed, the reason central banks do not define the medium-term as a period of calendar time is that the horizon for action depends on the nature of the shock. this viewpoint is correct, as far as it goes. central banks do typically refrain from reacting to supply shocks that have opposing effects on output and inflation, so as not to overreact and reinforce the effect on growth, in either direction. and that might even be the case when faced with a su… |
| Christine Lagarde: Commitment and persistence - monetary policy in the economic recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.229 | lf we are facing a demand shock, where domestic wages and prices are being pushed up by excess demand, tightening policy can help cool the economy and bring down inflation. a supply shock, however, will tend to push up inflation and depress output. in this situation, tighter monetary policy would only exacerbate the contractionary effect on the economy. |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.222 | the persistence of the shocks when inflation is driven mainly by supply shocks, monetary policy should respond when the shocks are persistent to keep inflation expectations anchored and avoid that inflation becomes entrenched. understanding the reasons for the persistence of current shocks and whether they may permanently lower potential is also crucial for designing the adequate policy response. there are two alternative explanations for the persistence of the supply shocks we have experienced. the first is that the economy has been hit by a sequence of temporary supply shocks, which have jointly created a persistent effect on inflation. in this case, potential output should remain broadly unchanged. and the lingering effect of the supply shocks on economic activity through real income… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.188 | the origin of the shocks the origin of the shocks – that is, whether they originate more on the demand side or on the supply side – matters considerably for monetary policy. a central bank would typically want to adjust policy gradually in the face of supply shocks.[5] but it should react immediately to demand shocks that risk bringing medium- term inflation above target. this question is crucial today because the shocks that have hit the euro area economy in recent years have affected both demand and supply, making the main drivers of inflation harder to identify. we have faced both a series of external supply shocks[6] and a deterioration in the terms of trade which have pushed up costs for firms and weakened demand. this has resulted in an extraordinary rise in energy and food prices… |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.173 | (month-on-month percentage changes, annualised, seasonally and working-day adjusted) ™ hicp excluding food and energy = 3-month moving average 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 na rm : ny rey aia , , : i) 0 an } y bin pp dative 7 + -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 source: ecb three types of inflation: the good, the bad and the ugly for illustrative purposes, we can identify three different types of inflation. the first is “good” inflation, which comes about when demand is robust, output is at potential, employment is high, inflation is converging towards 2% and inflation expectations are anchored at 2%. 2] such inflation is consistent with wages rising at a pace that reflects our target and productivity gains, thereby supporting real disposable income. it does … |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.170 | the complexity of monetary policy keynote speech by fabio panetta, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the cepr-eabcn conference on “finding the gap: output gap measurement in the euro area” held at the european university institute florence, 14 november 2022 the output gap – the difference between actual and potential output[1] – plays an important conceptual role in central banking. in normal conditions, the output gap represents a gauge of inflationary pressure by signalling the amount of slack in the economy.[2] in turn, this provides a yardstick against which central banks calibrate monetary policy. by steering demand so that actual output matches potential central banks can stabilise inflation around their targets. from the global financial crisis until the start of the p… |
The most representative speeches:
5.80 Topic 80: risk; price stability; stability; upside; medium
5.80.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | risk | 1 | 0.0316916 | upside risk | 1 | 0.9992986 |
| 80 | price stability | 2 | 0.0260966 | upside | 2 | 0.9990361 |
| 80 | stability | 3 | 0.0239271 | credit growth | 3 | 0.9963202 |
| 80 | upside | 4 | 0.0231278 | vigilance | 4 | 0.9959198 |
| 80 | medium | 5 | 0.0215293 | ample liquidity | 5 | 0.9939377 |
| 80 | growth | 6 | 0.0206158 | indirect tax | 6 | 0.9927269 |
| 80 | strong | 7 | 0.0206158 | ample | 7 | 0.9925918 |
| 80 | remain | 8 | 0.0201591 | monetary expansion | 8 | 0.9922016 |
| 80 | upside risk | 9 | 0.0181608 | administer price | 9 | 0.9917996 |
| 80 | development | 10 | 0.0164481 | set behaviour | 10 | 0.9913575 |
| 80 | credit | 11 | 0.0147924 | vigorous | 11 | 0.9905887 |
| 80 | continue | 12 | 0.0147354 | underlie rate | 12 | 0.9902277 |
| 80 | analysis | 13 | 0.0139932 | strong monetary | 13 | 0.9896097 |
| 80 | wage | 14 | 0.0131939 | expansion | 14 | 0.9895990 |
| 80 | expansion | 15 | 0.0102251 | expect wage | 15 | 0.9894340 |
5.80.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2007-07-06 | 0.697 | at the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, risks to the outlook for price stability remain on the upside. these risks relate notably to the domestic side. in particular, as capacity utilisation in the euro area economy is high and labour markets continue to improve, constraints are emerging which could lead in particular to stronger than expected wage developments. in addition, pricing power in market segments with low competition may increase in such an environment. such developments would pose significant upward risks to price stability. it is therefore crucial that all parties concerned meet their responsibilities. wage agreements in particular should be sufficiently differentiated to take into account price competitiveness positions, the still high level of unemployment in many eco… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-03-22 | 0.661 | around 2%. the new ecb staff macroeconomic projections point to annual hicp inflation averaging between 1.5% and 2.1% in 2007 and between 1.4% and 2.6% in 2008. at the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, the outlook for price developments remains, in the governing council’s view, subject to upside risks. these stem from the possibility of renewed oil price increases and additional increases in administered prices and indirect taxes beyond those announced and decided thus far. more fundamentally, stronger than currently expected wage developments would pose significant upward risks to price stability, particularly in view of the favourable momentum of real gdp growth. it is therefore crucial that the social partners continue to meet their responsibilities and that wage agreements take i… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2007-06-07 | 0.599 | consistent with this view, eurosystem staff projects average annual hicp inflation of between 1.8% and 2.2% in 2007 and between 1.4% and 2.6% in 2008. compared with the march 2007 ecb staff projections, the range projected for inflation in 2007 is somewhat higher, largely reflecting higher oil prices. the projected range for inflation in 2008 is unchanged. in this context, let me remind you of the conditional nature of these projections, which are based on a series of technical assumptions, including assumptions for future short and long-term interest rates that are based on market expectations derived from the yield curve, as well as assumptions for oil and non-energy commodity prices. at the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, risks to the outlook for price stability remain on the up… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2006 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-07-13 | 0.599 | the outlook for price stability over the medium term remains subject to upside risks. as capacity utilisation in the euro area economy is high and labour markets are gradually improving, constraints are emerging which could lead in particular to stronger than expected wage developments. in addition, pricing power in market segments with low competition may increase in such an environment. the governing council stresses the importance of avoiding wage developments that would eventually lead to inflationary pressures and harm the purchasing power of all euro area citizens. in addition, upside risks to price stability arise from increases in administered prices and indirect taxes beyond those anticipated thus far and the potentially pro-cyclical stance of fiscal policy in some countries. f… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference ¿ introductory statement | Period_1 | 2007-03-12 | 0.551 | are likely to fall during the spring and summer before rising again towards the end of the year and then most likely hovering again at around 2%. the new ecb staff macroeconomic projections foresee annual hicp inflation averaging between 1.5% and 2.1% in 2007 and between 1.4% and 2.6% in 2008. compared with the december 2006 eurosystem staff projections, the upper bound of the range projected for inflation in 2007 is somewhat lower, largely reflecting the fall in oil prices. by contrast, the projected range for inflation in 2008 is slightly higher, largely on account of the anticipated stronger economic growth, which could exert more intense pressure on factor utilisation and factor costs. in this context, let me remind you of the conditional nature of these projections, which are based… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-04-05 | 0.125 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. the information that has become available since the beginning of march broadly confirms our previous assessment. inflation rates are likely to stay above 2% in 2012, with upside risks prevailing. over the policy-relevant horizon, we expect price developments to remain in line with price stability. consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. survey indicators for economic growth have broadly stabilised at low levels in the early months of 2012, and a moder… |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s fight against low inflation - reasons and consequences | Period_2 | 2016-04-11 | 0.059 | i would like to thank jonathan yiangou, john hutchinson and federic holm-hadulla for their contributions to this speech. accompanying slides can be found on the european central bank’s website. in the last half century central banks have come a long way in how they approach their macro-stabilisation functions. as recently as the late 1970s, views still diverged across advanced economy central banks as to the efficacy of monetary policy in delivering price stability. some, such as the bundesbank and the swiss national bank, were already committed to using monetary measures to control inflation. but others, such as the federal reserve and various european central banks, remained more pessimistic in their outlook, believing that monetary policy was an inefficient means to tame inflation an… |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.055 | stance delivers the timely and robust convergence of inflation to our medium-term aim: in this context, our |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.051 | hahn, e. (2019), “how are wage developments passed through to prices in the euro area? evidence from a bvar model”, applied economics, published online 1 november 2019. notes: the x-axis refers to the quarters since the shock. the magnitude of the shock is normalised to a 1% increase in compensation per employee over the first four quarters. it is assumed that indirect taxes net of subsidies respond proportionally to real gdp such that this component does not contribute to the changes in the gdp deflator. |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2012-11-09 | 0.050 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, inflation rates are likely to remain above 2% for the remainder of 2012. they are expected to fall below that level in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. inflation expectations for the euro area remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintainin… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.089 | the risk of second-round effects monetary policy cannot prevent the first-round effects of many of these shocks. but especially when the shocks are persistent, we must ensure they do not produce second-round effects that cause too-high inflation to become entrenched. since the euro area is a net importer of energy, we are facing a large and unavoidable shock to real income owing to the deterioration in our terms of trade. this terms-of-trade “tax” amounted to around 2 percentage points of gdp in the second quarter of this year.[12] the question that workers, firms and governments confront today is how this burden should be distributed within the economy and over time. fair burden-sharing between wage income and profit margins is certainly justified. fiscal policy can help spread the bur… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.080 | the risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside. in the near term, existing pipeline pressures could lead to stronger than expected rises in retail prices for energy and food. over the medium term, risks stem primarily from domestic factors such as a persistent rise in inflation expectations above our target or higher than anticipated wage rises. by contrast, a decline in energy costs or a further weakening of demand would lower price pressures. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-11-29 | 0.073 | higher interest rates also have an immediate effect on people’s and businesses’ expectations about future inflation, thereby guarding against the risk of second-round effects. persistently high inflation could lead to de-anchored inflation expectations, which then become engrained in wage negotiations and price setting. not only would the resultant wage-price spirals prove self-defeating in supporting real incomes economy-wide, but it would also hamper the productive capacity of the economy as a whole. strong labour markets – with the unemployment rate still at the historically low level of 6.6 per cent in september – are likely to support higher wages. incoming data suggest that wages are picking up, and we will continue to assess their implications for the medium-term inflation outloo… |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.065 | now, even with all this analytical infrastructure in place, the current exceptional uncertainty means that we need to be humble about how accurately we can predict the future state of the economy. it is difficult to assess the exact quantitative impact of the tragic developments that began unfolding just as we were casting off the impact of two years of another unforeseeable event with dramatic consequences – the covid-19 pandemic. that being said, the new ecb staff projections that were prepared for our monetary policy meeting two weeks ago and included two complementary scenarios to cater for the uncertainty paint a clear picture of what qualitative impact to expect. the analysis confirms that the present circumstances represent new headwinds to growth, emerging at a time when previou… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.057 | at present, most measures of longer-term inflation expectations stand at around two per cent, although recent above-target revisions to some indicators warrant continued monitoring. for that purpose we look at a wide spectrum of market-based and survey-based expectations indicators (chart 21). market-based indicators suggest that inflation will return to levels compatible with our target in the course of 2024. our survey of monetary analysts likewise suggests that inflation will be close to target in 2024, while inflation will remain elevated next year. meanwhile, the three-year-ahead inflation expectations of households have risen above target, although the term structure of expectations remains downward-sloping. while it is well-known that consumer expectations exhibit high sensitivit… |
The most representative speeches:
5.81 Topic 81: development; money; analysis; growth; aggregate
5.81.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | development | 1 | 0.0538054 | reference | 1 | 0.9992114 |
| 81 | money | 2 | 0.0433011 | pillar | 2 | 0.9986856 |
| 81 | analysis | 3 | 0.0354494 | monetary aggregate | 3 | 0.9985981 |
| 81 | growth | 4 | 0.0333273 | prominent role | 4 | 0.9978049 |
| 81 | aggregate | 5 | 0.0281282 | prominent | 5 | 0.9977216 |
| 81 | pillar | 6 | 0.0275977 | monetary development | 6 | 0.9976345 |
| 81 | reference | 7 | 0.0244146 | aggregate | 7 | 0.9967519 |
| 81 | indicator | 8 | 0.0236718 | money growth | 8 | 0.9963612 |
| 81 | role | 9 | 0.0168812 | monetary pillar | 9 | 0.9960432 |
| 81 | price development | 10 | 0.0161384 | price development | 10 | 0.9959638 |
| 81 | monetary aggregate | 11 | 0.0151835 | indicator | 11 | 0.9958739 |
| 81 | information | 12 | 0.0147591 | broad monetary aggregate | 12 | 0.9955589 |
| 81 | signal | 13 | 0.0147591 | monetary growth | 13 | 0.9953544 |
| 81 | monetary development | 14 | 0.0145469 | broad monetary | 14 | 0.9952566 |
| 81 | broad | 15 | 0.0143347 | money | 15 | 0.9951597 |
5.81.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem F Duisenberg: European Economic and Monetary Union: a success story | Period_1 | 2001-06-26 | 0.408 |
|
| Mr Noyer reports on monetary policy-making in Europe (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 19 Nov 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-11-24 | 0.353 | decisions by the governing council. however, others criticise the eurosystem for not basing monetary policy decisions almost exclusively on deviations of m3 growth from the reference value, as they are convinced that money is the best indicator for monetary policy. i reject the criticisms of both camps. let me explain why. first, i disagree with the view that money should play no or only a small role in the ecb’s strategy. empirical studies show that m3 for the euro area has a stable relationship with the price level over the medium term. such a stable relationship with price developments has not been found for any other indicator variable at this place in time. moreover, there is evidence that monetary aggregates contain useful information for future macroeconomic developments. this is… |
| Mr Duisenberg reviews the first year of experience with the Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 11 Oct 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-10-19 | 0.352 | these are largely technical issues. let me state categorically, as i have often done in the past, that neither prolonged inflation nor prolonged deflation in the euro area would be deemed by the governing council to be consistent with the maintenance of price stability. i cannot see how our commitment to symmetry could be stated more clearly. our decision to lower interest rates in april 1999, so as to address downside risks to price stability that had emerged during the first quarter, was a clear practical demonstration of this commitment. others criticise the “prominent role for money” in our strategy, which is reflected by the announcement of a reference value for m3 growth and our thorough analysis of the monetary aggregates. critics argue that m3 growth should not play a prominent … |
| Mr Noyer: Monetary policymaking in the euro area (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 23 Mar 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-03-01 | 0.334 | the two pillars of the monetary policy strategy of the eurosystem the intrinsic challenge for central banking is the need to look ahead. were monetary policy only to react when inflationary pressures are already visible, it would always be too late, as interest rate changes show their full impact on prices only after around six to eight quarters. moreover, it would have to react much more strongly than in the event of a timely action. the past experience with stop-go policies, widespread in the 1960s and 1970s, clearly illustrates the negative side effects in terms of a high volatility of inflation and output. a forward-looking monetary policy requires a structured approach in order to interpret and synthesise all the information relevant for an assessment of the outlook for price devel… |
| From the EMI to the ECB (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 30 May 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-05-31 | 0.329 | first, the range of approaches employed by ncbs in what is now the euro area was considerable. nevertheless, once the commitment to price stability was affirmed, each of these approaches achieved a large measure of success. the convergence of inflation rates to low and stable levels across the euro area in the 1990s was a significant - and, in many quarters, unexpected - achievement. in my view, this experience offers a powerful illustration that there are several ways to achieve and maintain price stability. the strategy adopted by a central bank should reflect the circumstances that it faces, including the initial conditions and consequent need for transition. those who claim that there is only one acceptable or efficient way to operate monetary policy fly in the face of history and e… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Past and future of the European Central Bank monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-05-11 | 0.262 | the announcement of a reference value for the growth of a broad monetary aggregate; and (iii) a broadly based assessment of the outlook for future price developments and the risks to price stability in the euro area as a whole.” there was clearly a dominant first pillar with a reference value initially set at 4.5% growth rate for m3. the text further explained: “to signal the prominent role it has assigned to money, the governing council has announced a quantitative reference value for monetary growth as one pillar of the overall stability oriented strategy”. so, some trace of technical monetarism[2] was implicitly present. in 2006, explaining the origin of the “two pillars”, otmar issing quoted former president wim duisenberg’s reply to a question by a journalist in 1999: “it is not a … |
| Mario Draghi: A route for Europe | Period_2 | 2012-05-25 | 0.197 | long-term growth of monetary aggregates and credit consistent with the potential for economic expansion. in this sense, the monetary pillar of the strategy can be interpreted as a strategic reinforcement that helps to prepare correction mechanisms in situations where macroeconomic imbalances are having difficulty in manifesting themselves in inflationary pressures. the monetary analysis gave important warning signals in the years preceding the crisis regarding the existence of deep macroeconomic and financial imbalances. in the autumn of 2005, in conditions of inflation observed and projected to be “normal”, the ecb’s monetary analysis began to record a change in the composition of m3 growth: from a model of growth explained by money demand factors – that we would define as irrelevant t… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy challenges in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-02-03 | 0.193 | this medium-term approach to the inflation target, as demonstrated by lars svensson2, an eminent supporter of a “flexible inflation targeting” framework, is equivalent to an optimal policy rule resulting from optimising an objective function containing simultaneously the deviation of inflation from the target and the output gap. this means that a medium-term strategy for the inflation target does not ignore what is happening with the output stabilisation or the slack in the economy. more trivially, it is clear that there are many situations, like the present one, where aiming at the inflation target by influencing aggregate demand is fully aligned with the goal of stabilising the output gap. these two features of monetary policy in the euro area – an overriding emphasis on price stabili… |
| Peter Praet: Economic recovery in the euro area - the role of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2013-12-16 | 0.159 | signals from the monetary pillar let me now turn to the signals we have received from the monetary pillar. in a nutshell, these signals confirm the subdued medium-term inflation outlook deriving from the economic analysis. while monetary dynamics have been weak, essentially since the onset of the crisis, growth in broad money moderated further in recent months. the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate m3 decreased to 1.4% in october 2013 (or 1.7 % adjusting for one-off effects), which is the latest available data point, from 2.0% in september 2013. this marks a continuation in the deceleration from previous months. after m3 still grew at 2.8% in the second quarter of 2013, the third quarter recorded a significant drop in this growth rate to 2.2%. a key driver of these rece… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy in the crisis - confronting short-run challenges while anchoring long-run expectations | Period_2 | 2013-05-23 | 0.144 | which from time to time have released signals which conflicted with those which we extracted from our inflation forecast. under our monetary pillar, in particular, monetary and financial trends have acquired such a prominent analytical status that, we think, they allowed a better identification of the origin of macroeconomic disturbances. this in turn has provided for a more robust approach to policy overall. this monetary pillar “spare tyre” has been relevant in conditions of persistent supply shocks. let me give an example. since the 1990s and for much of the last decade, inflation in a large number of mature industrial economies remained quiescent. many underlying determinants can explain these worldwide conditions. a regained control of inflation expectations by the major monetary a… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.059 | the labour market has remained resilient so far, with forward-looking indicators showing little sign of weakening.[15] inflation expectations have been creeping up. in parallel, governments are facing pressures to increase indexation, for instance by tying pensions and public sector wages to inflation, which could add to wage pressures in the private sector too.[16] this outlook is confirmed by evidence from the latest collective bargaining rounds and our corporate telephone survey, both of which point to a rise in negotiated wages next year of around 4%. here in estonia, wage growth is currently running at around 10%. these developments do not constitute excessive second-round effects so far, and at longer horizons inflation expectations remain anchored. but with inflation likely to re… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.045 | in an environment of measurable movements in inflation expectations, insights regarding their role in monetary policy transmission remain crucial for the policy deliberations of central banks. in the post- pandemic context, it is particularly challenging to discern whether changes in measures of expectations indicate a more fundamental change that may durably impact the transmission of monetary policy. so what can research tell us? recent research in this area — including several papers presented at this conference — has helped shed light on how different types of inflation expectations are formed, how reliable the various measures are, and what these findings may imply for the conduct of monetary policy. how reliable are surveys of professional forecasters, for example? one of the conf… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.033 | policy implications so what does this imply for the ecb’s normalisation process today? subject to incoming data – we are and should remain data-driven – both the economic outlook and the principles i have outlined justify ending net asset purchases and then gradually exiting negative rates. this would allow us to continue to normalise policy by removing the part of our monetary accommodation that is no longer needed today. in particular, negative rates may imply distortions which were only necessary and proportionate when inflation was threatening to be too low over the medium term, relative to our target.the first adjustment is already under way. the ecb has already made two major announcements on asset purchases, first in december last year, and then again in march, when we signalled … |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.032 | curve brings about an appreciation of the euro.[19] simple correlations between the exchange rate and interest rate expectations suggest that this relation has held up reasonably well historically and more recently in terms of the euro-us dollar bilateral exchange rate as well as in the cross-section of the effective exchange rates of major currencies. ecb model-based decompositions of financial asset price movements across the united states and the euro area point to a prominent role of us monetary policy tightening in driving the increase in euro area yields, the correction in euro area equity markets, and the recent euro depreciation. in fact, us monetary policy spillovers have had at least as much of an impact on euro area asset prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate over the last… |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.030 | first, we see no real evidence of a broad-based skill mismatch across the economy. we are seeing high job vacancy rates, especially in the high-contact services that have recently reopened, but we are also seeing strong growth in employment. this suggests that the economy is largely following the normal movement along the beveridge curve! seen during recoveries, undergoing a typical matching process (chart 7, left-hand side)./12] |
The most representative speeches:
5.82 Topic 82: ensure; measure; time; continue; support
5.82.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | ensure | 1 | 0.0615012 | ready | 1 | 0.9992986 |
| 82 | measure | 2 | 0.0480552 | manner | 2 | 0.9989486 |
| 82 | time | 3 | 0.0451139 | timely | 3 | 0.9988609 |
| 82 | continue | 4 | 0.0424528 | exit | 4 | 0.9987727 |
| 82 | support | 5 | 0.0327885 | ensure | 5 | 0.9987719 |
| 82 | manner | 6 | 0.0325084 | timely manner | 6 | 0.9986845 |
| 82 | stand | 7 | 0.0315279 | stand | 7 | 0.9985981 |
| 82 | provide | 8 | 0.0299873 | stand ready | 8 | 0.9985974 |
| 82 | ready | 9 | 0.0298472 | counter | 9 | 0.9975467 |
| 82 | timely | 10 | 0.0266258 | effectively | 10 | 0.9967145 |
| 82 | economy | 11 | 0.0225640 | exit strategy | 11 | 0.9956071 |
| 82 | remain | 12 | 0.0213034 | continue | 12 | 0.9956045 |
| 82 | exit | 13 | 0.0193425 | sustain manner | 13 | 0.9950814 |
| 82 | stand ready | 14 | 0.0147205 | provide | 14 | 0.9949036 |
| 82 | timely manner | 15 | 0.0127596 | crucial | 15 | 0.9946509 |
5.82.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-10-12 | 0.148 | as the transmission of monetary policy works with lags, we expect that our policy action will progressively feed through to the economy in full. hence, with all the measures taken, including our latest 12-month longer-term refinancing operation of 30 september, monetary policy is providing strong ongoing support to the economy. once the macroeconomic environment improves, the governing council will make sure that the measures taken are unwound in a timely fashion and that the liquidity provided is absorbed in order to counter effectively any threat to price stability over the medium to longer term. by so doing, the governing council will continue to ensure a firm anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations. such anchoring is indispensable to supporting sustainable growth and employm… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-07-08 | 0.141 | quarterly growth rates is expected by mid-2010. available indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the governing council’s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis corroborates the assessment of low inflationary pressure, as money and credit indicators continue to be weak. against this background, we expect the current episode of extremely low or negative inflation rates to be short-lived and price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby continuing to support the purchasing power of euro area households. as the transmission of monetary policy works with lags, our policy action should p… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-06-09 | 0.127 | contrast, longer-term lending to non-financial corporations remained positive. the past reductions in key ecb rates have continued to be passed on to lending rates to both non- financial corporations and households. the resulting improvement in financing conditions should provide ongoing support for economic activity in the period ahead. however, given the challenges which lie ahead, banks should take appropriate measures to further strengthen their capital bases and, where necessary, take full advantage of the government measures to support the financial sector, in particular as regards recapitalisation. to sum up, the current key ecb interest rates are appropriate taking into account our decisions of early may, including the enhanced credit support measures, and all the information an… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-08-11 | 0.121 | expansion continues to decelerate. against this background, we expect the current episode of extremely low or negative inflation rates to be short-lived and price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby continuing to support the purchasing power of euro area households. as the transmission of monetary policy works with lags, our policy action should progressively feed through to the economy in full. hence, with all the measures taken, including our covered bond purchases, monetary policy will provide ongoing support for households and corporations. once the macroeconomic environment improves, the governing council will take care that the measures taken are quickly unwound and that the ample liquidity provided is absorbed. hence, any threat to price stability over the me… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2009-11-06 | 0.119 | area economy. looking ahead, and taking into account the improved conditions in financial markets, not all our liquidity measures will be needed to the same extent as in the past. accordingly, the governing council will make sure that the extraordinary liquidity measures taken are phased out in a timely and gradual fashion and that the liquidity provided is absorbed in order to counter effectively any threat to price stability over the medium to longer term. by so doing, the governing council will continue to ensure a firm anchoring of medium- term inflation expectations. such anchoring is indispensable to supporting sustainable growth and employment and contributing to financial stability. accordingly, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead. as … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for euro area monetary policy in early 2018 | Period_2 | 2017-12-29 | 0.163 | insurance companies, bidding up the price at which we need to pay. liquidity conditions are expected to become more challenging in certain market segments the longer the purchasing programme remains active. as such, we have to be mindful not to exert an undue influence on price formation. another potential complication relates to our public sector purchases. a key safeguard that we have set up for these purchases is to operate so-called “blackout periods”, where we do not buy around the date of a new issuance. this facilitates price formation and ensures that article 123 of the treaty is fully respected – the monetary financing prohibition. mindful of self-imposed constraints in this respect the remaining space for both net and gross purchases will largely be in newly issued bonds. this… |
| Yves Mersch: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy amid the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-10-19 | 0.136 | looking ahead, in the current environment of elevated uncertainty the ecb governing council will assess incoming information very carefully, including developments in the exchange rate, while ensuring that this incoming information, such as information on containment measures which is already included in our baseline, is only accounted for once in our assessment. the governing council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a timely and sustained manner. |
| Fabio Panetta: Healing after the pandemic - supporting and sustaining the recovery | Period_2 | 2020-09-15 | 0.128 | the funding from next generation eu creates an extraordinary opportunity. for the first time in history, the european union will issue common debt to counter a common shock. this will bring fiscal policy more in tune with monetary policy at the european level, and may represent an important step for european integration: we borrow together to recover from the crisis and to invest in our future. all eu countries will benefit from this common response. but to be effective, european measures require careful planning and decisive action at the national level. in time, the need to buffer the immediate impact of the pandemic will be replaced by the need for investment and reform to support a sustainable recovery. as the national support measures are phased out, a well-planned and coordinated … |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.116 | while the automatic stabilisation function embedded in the forward guidance accommodates any short- term volatility in the outlook, the governing council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. scatterplot of the contribution of demand factor to short-term rates (x-axis) versus long-term rates (y-axis). |
| Yves Mersch: Challenges facing monetary policy in the euro area | Period_2 | 2018-03-26 | 0.113 | market, bigger than ever before. we sometimes buy bonds from institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, which could push up the price we need to pay given the growing scarcity. we should avoid a situation whereby liquidity conditions in certain market segments are unnecessarily made more challenging by an unwarranted extension of the purchase programme. so we have to be mindful not to exert an undue influence on price formation. another potential complication relates to our public sector purchases. a key safeguard that we have set up for these purchases is to operate so-called “blackout periods”, where we do not buy around the date of a new issuance. this facilitates price formation and ensures that article 123 of the treaty – the monetary financing prohibit… |
| Luis de Guindos: Presentation of the European Central Bank annual report 2021 | Period_3 | 2022-05-04 | 0.092 | impact of the sanctions and on possible further measures. beyond the humanitarian and economic impact, the recent events have also exposed major strategic vulnerabilities in europe. and we can only address these by remaining united. europe’s recent history has shown that when faced with significant shocks, we are capable of coming together, learning our lessons and emerging stronger. the initiatives taken on european level so far to address this crisis suggest that this time will be no different. the war in ukraine has reminded us yet again that peace in europe cannot be taken for granted. but it has also reminded us of the european union’s very raison d’être – to preserve peace. because, in the words of jean monnet, “it is better to fight around the negotiating table than on the battle… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a high inflation environment - commitment and clarity | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.088 | back to our target. how much further we need to go, and how fast we need to get there, will be determined by the following factors. the first and most important is the inflation outlook: we will raise rates to levels that bring inflation back down to our medium-term target in a timely manner. the inflation outlook is forward-looking and incorporates all the different forces we are facing: the outlook for the economy, the persistence of the shocks and the reaction of wages and inflation expectations. current inflation numbers are relevant insofar as they provide additional insights about the persistence of inflation. the second factor is the corresponding policy stance and its transmission lags into demand and inflation. monetary policy is inherently forward-looking, as interest rate cha… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.085 | the anchoring of inflation expectations it is an essential task for monetary policy to ensure that medium-term inflation expectations are anchored at the two per cent target. the scale and speed of the rise in inflation since the middle of 2021 constitutes a major shock and has created an environment in which there is more intense questioning of the future inflation path. the longer and larger the deviation from the two percent target, the greater the risk that medium-term inflation expectations become de-anchored. all else equal, the monetary policy that stabilises inflation at target in a timely manner is also the monetary policy that stabilises expectations at target. first, by ensuring that the monetary policy stance will sufficiently dampen demand to return inflation to the target … |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.084 | ensuring price stability for monetary policy, this changing environment creates considerable challenges. inflation in the euro area is far too high, having reached double digits in october for the first time since the start of the monetary union. and with inflation likely to remain high for an extended period, we need to monitor the evolution of inflation expectations very carefully. additionally, although recent data on gdp growth have surprised on the upside, the risk of recession has increased. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-09-27 | 0.082 | moreover, to further enhance our transparency and ensure that we are aware of citizens’ expectations and concerns in relation to our policies, we have modernised our communication policy and we will make outreach events a structural feature of our interaction with the public. but our efforts to ensure that we are accountable to european citizens do not stop there. this parliament will continue to be our main interlocutor and your role in making sure that the people’s voices are heard by the ecb and that the ecb’s voice is heard by the people remains crucial to foster understanding of and trust in our policies. finally, two years after my first appearance before this committee, i remain fully convinced of the need for an “open mind” to ensure that the ecb keeps delivering on its mandate … |
The most representative speeches:
5.83 Topic 83: sector; private; private sector; economy; good
5.83.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | sector | 1 | 0.2468592 | sector | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 83 | private | 2 | 0.0939806 | private sector | 2 | 0.9998247 |
| 83 | private sector | 3 | 0.0592221 | private | 3 | 0.9995619 |
| 83 | economy | 4 | 0.0542145 | public sector | 4 | 0.9989482 |
| 83 | good | 5 | 0.0349205 | bank sector | 5 | 0.9988610 |
| 83 | public | 6 | 0.0334477 | financial sector | 6 | 0.9986858 |
| 83 | bank sector | 7 | 0.0237271 | public | 7 | 0.9978958 |
| 83 | financial sector | 8 | 0.0226961 | direct | 8 | 0.9978096 |
| 83 | financial | 9 | 0.0215179 | notably | 9 | 0.9975468 |
| 83 | include | 10 | 0.0169521 | inter | 10 | 0.9975449 |
| 83 | public sector | 11 | 0.0156266 | alia | 11 | 0.9975431 |
| 83 | additional | 12 | 0.0122391 | additional | 12 | 0.9974589 |
| 83 | improve | 13 | 0.0115027 | restructure | 13 | 0.9972831 |
| 83 | result | 14 | 0.0110609 | inter alia | 14 | 0.9969728 |
| 83 | direct | 15 | 0.0109136 | private investment | 15 | 0.9956556 |
5.83.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Noyer: Challenges ahead - the accession process | Period_1 | 2001-11-20 | 0.110 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.108 | implications of policy measures the current crisis has increased the role of the government in the economy. some bank rescue operations have involved outright nationalisations, so governments now have significant exposure to the financial sector. similarly, the large fiscal stimuli packages adopted by many countries have led to a large increase in the size of the public sector in the economy. at the same time, the turmoil is being interpreted by some as a crisis of the market economy. it has encouraged critics of the market economy to speak out and demand a much larger role in the economy for governments. the financial system clearly needs a fundamental overhaul. financial institutions have to take a different approach and adopt appropriate incentives. risk-takers should be liable and n… |
| Christian Noyer: The ECB and the accession process | Period_1 | 2001-10-15 | 0.107 | the strengthening of the financial and banking sectors although the restructuring process in accession countries has made substantial progress, the financial sectors of accession countries still need to be further developed in terms of size, depth and functioning. this applies, in particular, to the banking sector that largely dominates the financial sector of these economies. the challenges ahead are numerous: inter alia, the weakness of banking intermediation, reflected in the low level of credit to the private sector, the relatively large proportion of bad loans in banks’ balance sheets in some countries or the exceptionally high spreads between lending and deposit rates that will progressively vanish in the next years. fortunately, the privatisation process and the increasing partic… |
| Mr Noyer considers the role of the central bank in encouraging and safeguarding savings (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 21 Jan 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-01-26 | 0.085 | its development also requires a certain convergence in tax systems. ultimately, the health of the financial sector is essential to the protection of savings. although the eurosystem has no direct authority in the field of prudential supervision, it monitors risk developments in the banking sector, as it does more generally with regard to developments in assets prices, where these could potentially affect overall monetary and financial stability. in these areas, the role of the eurosystem is always to uphold confidence in the currency, to contribute to the smooth functioning of the financial system and to encourage prudent macroeconomic policies, which influence the will and capacity to save. |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Growth and inflation in the euro area - the importance of productivity in the services sector | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.080 | dynamics and some characteristics of inflation in services more generally. i will touch on inflation at an area-wide level, but also – and mainly – on inflation differentials within monetary union. at an area-wide level, unit labour costs resulting from wage and productivity developments are a key predictor of inflation. wage increases not covered by productivity gains push up production costs, which eventually add to price pressures. when looking at price developments across sectors, it appears that in the euro area, the prices of services have increased faster than the prices of goods over the last two decades. evidence of this inflation gap can be found by looking at the main hicp components and gross value added deflators. for instance, when using the gdp deflator at factor cost, in… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.114 | yet this means that the ecb’s audit of the banks could itself become a systemic risk. if the ecb were to notice very large capital shortfalls or a large number of banks that are not capable of surviving, this would potentially trigger a new banking crisis. i see it completely differently. if there are problems in europe’s banking sector, they are there, regardless of whether we uncover them or not. in the financial system in general, light is always better than darkness. only by uncovering weaknesses in the banking sector can measures be taken to correct them, be it through recapitalisation, restructuring or winding up banks. without transparency, the weaknesses will remain and put a strain on the whole economy. after all, weak banks do not lend. we have learnt the lessons from japan in… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.103 | radical proposals, even if digitalisation may gain ground and eventually prevail – as we start to observe in some countries. helicopter money another old idea which has received renewed attention recently is friedman’s proposal of using “helicopter money”. friedman’s helicopter money drop is supposed to exert upward pressure on real activity and inflation because of a wealth effect: real money holdings of private agents rise at a given price level, making private agents wealthier and inducing them to spend. in a more modern context, one would need to increase private agents’ claims on the public sector, relative to private agents’ liabilities to the public sector. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Delo | Period_2 | 2014-02-17 | 0.093 | absolutely, it will be the same philosophy. we will discuss all the parameters with the 18 supervisors – the so-called “national competent authorities” of the 18 euro area countries – within the ecb’s new supervisory board, which met for the first time on 30 january. this will be the place where all the assumptions, parameters and choices will be discussed. this will be the first important contribution made by the single supervisory mechanism to the euro area. the principles will be the same and they will be very strict, to make sure that we know everything about the situation of the banks this time – and to be sure that measures are taken to prepare for the future. several critical reviews of the oliver wyman financial consultancy appeared recently in the foreign press. why has the ecb… |
| Peter Praet: Ensuring a sustained adjustment in inflation | Period_2 | 2018-07-19 | 0.092 | resources of the public sector were mobilised, putting strains on the public finances of those countries whose banking sectors were large relative to their economies. as a result of this assistance to the financial sector, government debt in the euro area as a whole increased by more than five percentage points of gdp. at the level of individual countries, government debt increased in some cases by more than 10 or even 30 percentage points of gdp, not including further – very sizeable – contingent liabilities resulting from state guarantees to banks. the second phase intensified the negative feedback loop between banks and sovereigns. this loop was a source of vulnerability for the euro area for two reasons: first, any impairment of the banking sector’s liabilities – including capital −… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Radio Classique | Period_2 | 2017-01-30 | 0.081 | benoît cœuré: interview with radio classique interview with mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, and radio classique, conducted by mr nicolas pierron on 23 january 2017. * * * mario draghi, president of the european central bank, is to be investigated by the ombudsman of the european union, following a complaint from an ngo. he is suspected of entrusting the private sector with insider information in the context of a group called the g30. how do you respond to these allegations? the mere fact that those questions are being asked shows that we are transparent, since all meetings of the members of the executive board of the ecb with representatives of the private sector, whether bankers or not, are made public. as a matter of fact, my calendar, my d… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.104 |
|
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.094 | in particular, capital key deviations peaked in the early weeks of the pepp, while subsequent purchasing was generally aligned with the capital key, in view of the rapid stabilisation of spreads in the wake of the pepp announcement. annual net issuance of public and private sector securities ecb and eba. notes: the dotted line shows ecb staff projections of debt issuance of securities issued by the public sector and the non-financial corporate sector and projections of the european banking authority (eba) for (unsecured) securities issued by the banking sector. the latest observation is for 18 march 2022. |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.085 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.063 | schnabel, i. (2022), “the globalisation of inflation”, speech at a conference organised by the österreichische vereinigung für finanzanalyse und asset management, vienna, 11 may. 15. jordà et al. (2022), “wage growth when inflation is high”, frbsf economic letter 2022-25, 6 september; and carstens, a. (2022), “the return of inflation”, speech at the international center for monetary and banking studies, geneva, 5 april. 16. overall, however, only around 3% of private sector workers in the euro area have their wages and minimum wages automatically indexed to inflation. see koester, g. and grapow, h. (2021), “the prevalence of private sector wage indexation in the euro area and its potential role for the impact of inflation on wages”, published as part of the ecb economic bulletin, issue … |
| Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future - the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.053 | and sectors in the euro area. it fine-tunes the overall policy mix and complements the single monetary policy in support of overall financial stability across the euro area. despite the overall good resilience of the euro area banking sector, certain countries have in recent years seen a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, notably related to residential real estate prices and growing household and firm indebtedness. some further careful and targeted tightening of macroprudential policy would be beneficial in selected countries at present. given the deteriorated outlook for economic growth, some countries might benefit from further increasing the resilience of their financial sectors before credit risks start materialising. this includes for example taking measures to preserve capital… |
The most representative speeches:
5.84 Topic 84: purchase; continue; asset; ecb interest rate; ecb interest
5.84.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | purchase | 1 | 0.0278880 | reinvest | 1 | 0.9967976 |
| 84 | continue | 2 | 0.0274769 | principal payment | 2 | 0.9967478 |
| 84 | asset | 3 | 0.0175439 | mature | 3 | 0.9966707 |
| 84 | ecb interest rate | 4 | 0.0135021 | principal | 4 | 0.9964948 |
| 84 | ecb interest | 5 | 0.0132281 | mature security | 5 | 0.9963521 |
| 84 | key | 6 | 0.0131596 | ecb interest rate | 6 | 0.9955162 |
| 84 | asset purchase | 7 | 0.0127486 | ecb interest | 7 | 0.9953410 |
| 84 | key ecb | 8 | 0.0126801 | key ecb | 8 | 0.9949036 |
| 84 | president | 9 | 0.0126116 | key ecb interest | 9 | 0.9946439 |
| 84 | govern council | 10 | 0.0126116 | mature security purchase | 10 | 0.9945864 |
| 84 | interest | 11 | 0.0122691 | security purchase | 11 | 0.9939474 |
| 84 | key ecb interest | 12 | 0.0121320 | start raise | 12 | 0.9937137 |
| 84 | interest rate | 13 | 0.0118580 | statement | 13 | 0.9935901 |
| 84 | council | 14 | 0.0106935 | vice president | 14 | 0.9935078 |
| 84 | govern | 15 | 0.0102824 | monthly pace | 15 | 0.9933944 |
5.84.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.074 | there will be a monthly press conference. such a press conference will start with a detailed introductory statement, as has been the case so far, and these introductory statements will also be published immediately, without delay. in this statement the vice-president and i will present the governing council’s view of the economic situation and the underlying arguments for its monetary policy decisions, followed by a question and answer session. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in The Wall Street Journal | Period_1 | 2011-01-24 | 0.052 | wsj: if 2008 and 2009 were years of crisis, and 2010 was a year of stabilization and recovery. how do you see 2011? what should davos participants be focused on this year? trichet: since the start of the recovery, in the third quarter of 2009, the real economy has surprised up on the upside. this is encouraging. i see 2011 as a year of continuous hard work, to make the financial sector more resilient and to improve the soundness of fiscal policies. the crisis, which started in 2007 and intensified in september 2008 revealed the fragility of the financial sector first and then the relative vulnerability of public finances in the advanced economies. wsj: what worries you most? trichet: to consider that because we managed to avoid a depression and are now experiencing the recovery, we coul… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2004-02-25 | 0.035 | purchasing power will be protected in the years to come, thanks in particular to the vigilance of the governing council of the ecb. from that standpoint, perhaps it is time to be more confident, and for households to consume and to invest more, which in turn would be good for growth and job creation. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.033 | this pattern of events has repeated itself more than once over this period and uncertainty has still to fully dissipate. the governing council, on the basis of its comprehensive economic and monetary analyses, has constantly monitored and assessed macroeconomic conditions and the outlook for price stability, and, in its judgment, overall, they have required keeping the policy rate at 2% in each meeting over this period. in the monthly press conference following the governing council meeting in which we discuss monetary policy, i have very regularly made the point that we were not making any promises to the markets about future policy moves and that we stood ready to act as soon as is necessary to maintain price stability. |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.032 | monetary policy let me now turn to the second part of my speech, namely the role of monetary policy in the current situation. the financial crisis has contributed to a pace in disinflation and economic deceleration which has been unprecedented. this has required us taking unprecedented decisions to contain adverse spillover effects of financial market tensions on the real economy and thereby to maintain inflation over the medium term in line with price stability. in a coordinated move, the ecb and other major central banks announced reductions in their policy interest rates on 8 october 2008. overall, since october 2008, we lowered the key ecb interest rates by 275 basis points. the overnight money market rates fell even more steeply over this period, as the ecb significantly enlarged i… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2019-10-24 | 0.569 | mario draghi: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 24 october 2019. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr dombrovskis, and the incoming president, ms lagarde. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. we expect them to remain at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficie… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2019-12-12 | 0.545 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 12 december 2019. * * * ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our press conference. today is the first time that i have had the privilege and pleasure of chairing the monetary policy meeting of the governing council of the ecb. i am delighted to proceed now with reporting on the outcome of our meeting, together with the vice-president. the governing council meeting was also attended by the commission executive vice-president, mr dombrovskis. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. we ex… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2020-01-23 | 0.536 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 23 january 2020. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. we expect them to remain at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within our projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently r… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2020-09-10 | 0.499 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 10 september 2020. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission executive vice-president, mr dombrovskis. the incoming data since our last monetary policy meeting in july suggest a strong rebound in activity broadly in line with previous expectations, although the level of activity remains well below the levels prevailing before the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic. wh… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-12-13 | 0.493 | mario draghi: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 13 december 2018. * * * ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the president of the eurogroup, mr centeno. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. we continue to expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained conve… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.328 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 15 december 2022. good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. the governing council today decided to raise the three key ecb interest rates by 50 basis points and, based on the substantial upward revision to the inflation outlook, we expect to raise them further. in particular, we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target. keeping interest rates at rest… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.256 | monetary policy statement press conference christine lagarde, president of the ecb, luis de guindos, vice-president of the ecb amsterdam, 9 june 2022 jump to the transcript of the questions and answers good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. i would like to thank president knot for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. high inflation is a major challenge for all of us. the governing council will make sure that inflation returns to our two per cent target over the medium term. in may inflation again rose significantly, mainly because of surging energy and food prices, including due to the impact of the war. but inflation pressures have broadened … |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-10-28 | 0.255 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 28 october 2021. * * * good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. the euro area economy continues to recover strongly, although momentum has moderated to some extent. consumers continue to be confident and their spending remains strong. but shortages of materials, equipment and labour are holding back production in some sectors. inflation is rising, primarily because of the surge in energy prices but also as the recovery in demand is outpacing constrained supply. we foresee inflation rising further in the near term,… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.254 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-09-09 | 0.237 | christine lagarde: ecb press conference - introductory statement introductory statement by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, and mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, frankfurt am main, 9 september 2021. * * * good afternoon, the vice-president and i welcome you to our press conference. the rebound phase in the recovery of the euro area economy is increasingly advanced. output is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic level by the end of the year. with more than 70 per cent of european adults fully vaccinated, the economy has largely reopened, allowing consumers to spend more and companies to increase production. while rising immunity to the coronavirus means that the impact of the pandemic is now less severe, the global spread of the … |
The most representative speeches:
5.85 Topic 85: development; growth; remain; continue; stability
5.85.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | development | 1 | 0.0409674 | moderation | 1 | 0.9947428 |
| 85 | growth | 2 | 0.0377714 | economic growth | 2 | 0.9940199 |
| 85 | remain | 3 | 0.0177475 | monetary development | 3 | 0.9935167 |
| 85 | continue | 4 | 0.0152038 | upward | 4 | 0.9925279 |
| 85 | stability | 5 | 0.0142907 | economic development | 5 | 0.9923337 |
| 85 | level | 6 | 0.0139645 | upward risk | 6 | 0.9921413 |
| 85 | month | 7 | 0.0131166 | consumer price inflation | 7 | 0.9921314 |
| 85 | economic growth | 8 | 0.0130514 | wage moderation | 8 | 0.9919394 |
| 85 | price stability | 9 | 0.0122035 | excess liquidity | 9 | 0.9918844 |
| 85 | inflationary | 10 | 0.0120730 | juncture | 10 | 0.9917937 |
| 85 | medium term | 11 | 0.0106381 | liquid | 11 | 0.9913621 |
| 85 | regard | 12 | 0.0105729 | development | 12 | 0.9913397 |
| 85 | outlook | 13 | 0.0104424 | pillar | 13 | 0.9910499 |
| 85 | uncertainty | 14 | 0.0103772 | oil price development | 14 | 0.9904159 |
| 85 | upward | 15 | 0.0095293 | inflationary | 15 | 0.9897626 |
5.85.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2002-01-03 | 0.503 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i will report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council of the ecb, which was also attended by the president of the ecofin council, mr. rato, as well as by commissioner solbes. as usual, we examined recent monetary, financial and economic developments. the governing council concluded that recent developments are in line with the interest rate decisions taken in the course of last year. we have therefore decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. we also confirmed that the current level of key ecb interest rates remains appropriate for the maintenance of price stability over the medium term. starting with the analysis under the first pillar of our monetary policy strategy, the three-month average of the annual growt… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2002-01-25 | 0.441 |
|
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2002-04-05 | 0.426 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council of the ecb. as usual, we examined recent monetary, financial and economic developments. the governing council concluded that the current level of key ecb interest rates remains appropriate for the maintenance of price stability over the medium term and, accordingly, decided to leave them unchanged. starting with the analysis under the first pillar of our monetary policy strategy, the three-month average of the annual growth rates of m3 stood at 7.8% in the period from december 2001 to february 2002, compared with 8.0% in the period from november 2001 to january 2002. the high level of the annual growth rates of m3 continues to reflect the past portfolio shifts to liq… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2002-05-29 | 0.410 | economic and monetary developments the evidence which has become available since my last testimony to your committee on 23 january 2002 has indeed made us confident that a recovery is under way in the euro area. at the same time, recent developments in consumer price inflation in the euro area have been less favourable than we expected, mainly due to specific and partly temporary factors. related to this, the outlook for price stability appears to be somewhat less favourable now than it was at the turn of the year. however, there are still uncertainties on the strength of the economic recovery and they, in turn, imply the existence of uncertainties regarding the inflation outlook - and these uncertainties have not diminished since the governing council meeting on 2 may. let me now elabo… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference introductory statement | Period_1 | 2001-11-08 | 0.393 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are here to report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council of the ecb. the governing council conducted a comprehensive and in-depth examination of monetary and economic developments. against the background of the available evidence, it analysed the implications for the maintenance of price stability in the euro area, taking a forward-looking and medium-term perspective. as a result, the governing council decided to lower the key ecb interest rates by 50 basis points. at this new level, the key ecb interest rates continue to be appropriate to ensure a favourable outlook for price stability over the medium term. in assessing the information which has accumulated over the past few weeks we concluded that inflationary pressur… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in De Tijd and L’Echo | Period_2 | 2014-10-28 | 0.075 | growth in the euro area has come to a standstill. when should we expect a revival? we are now seeing a loss of momentum. it is striking that growth is abating in an early phase of the business cycle. we take that seriously, but we shouldn’t exaggerate: our base scenario for a gradual economic recovery is still realistic. the risks have increased and deserve our attention. regarding recent developments, the widest gap between expectations and reality was seen in germany. france was weak and has remained so. growth projections for germany have been lowered, for both 2014 and 2015. the weakness there reflects the slowdown in trade with china and brazil and the impact of the ukrainian crisis, but also technical factors such as a higher than usual number of days leave in the motor industry. … |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Expresso | Period_2 | 2018-07-05 | 0.063 | peter praet: interview in expresso interview with mr peter praet, member of the executive board of the european central bank, in expresso, conducted by mr joão silvestre on 18 june 2018 and published on 23 june 2018. * * * is the asset purchase programme (app) really going to conclude at the end of this year? what we did last week was to express an anticipation that net asset purchases would end at the end of the year. we didn’t say we were now deciding to stop the programme in december. we still have six months to go. we translated the increased confidence we expressed about developments in the economy and inflation into an anticipation about the app. and, at the same time, we also enhanced the forward guidance on interest rates. but, in any event, to anticipate the end of the programm… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.061 | altavilla, c. et al., op. cit. notes: average investment for corporate clients of banks whose average non-financial counterparty deposit rate has been negative at least once, distinguishing between firms with a ratio of current assets over total assets in the top decile (high liquid asset holdings, blue line) and in the bottom decile (low liquid asset holdings, red line) of the distribution. investment orthogonal to firm fixed effects, normalised to 1 in 2014. the latest observation is for 2018. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy - reality or fiction? | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.057 | since the euro was introduced, inflation in the euro area has tended to be too low rather than too high (slide 3). the annual inflation rate for the euro area as a whole has averaged 1.7% since 1999. and the rate for germany has been 1.4%, significantly lower than during the period before the introduction of the euro. stable prices have been accompanied by significant economic growth (slide 4). over the past decade, in no other large industrialised nation has real per capita income growth been stronger than in germany. in |
| Isabel Schnabel: Narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy - reality or fiction? | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.054 | it is normal for asset prices to rise during phases of low interest rates. equity prices, for example, reflect firms’ discounted earnings expectations. if the interest rate falls, equity prices will go up, because future earnings will have a greater bearing on current valuations. however, earnings expectations themselves also tend to increase when interest rates are lowered, because investors anticipate stronger economic growth. and, indeed, the current price/earnings ratio in the euro area is a long way off from the excesses of the dotcom bubble of 2000, and it is closer to its historical median than in other economies (slide 25, left-hand side). nonetheless, central banks need to keep a close eye on such valuations, as purely liquidity-driven price gains can result in risks for financ… |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.064 | accumulated cost pressures over the last year have continued to drive up processed food prices, while the drought in summer and the elevated fertiliser prices over the past year are largely responsible for the rise in unprocessed food prices. the increase in core inflation, now at 5%, was accounted for by both its main components: inflation in services and non-energy industrial goods. price pressures are evident in more and more sectors, owing partly to the impact of high energy costs feeding through to the whole economy. in fact, over half the items in the harmonised index of consumer prices have recorded inflation rates above 4%. |
| Luis de Guindos: Euro area current policy challenges | Period_3 | 2022-09-16 | 0.057 | euro area current policy challenges speech by luis de guindos, vice-president of the ecb, at the cirsf (research centre on regulation and supervision of the financial sector) annual international conference 2022 “the future of the eu financial system in a new geo-economic context” lisbon, 15 september 2022 i am very pleased to be taking part in this event again and to be back to lisbon in person. following our monetary policy decisions last week, i would like to start with an overview of the euro area economic outlook that underpinned the governing council’s deliberations. i will then share our assessment of the stability of the euro area financial system at the current juncture – the core focus of today’s conference –and outline the ways in which recent economic developments are affect… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.050 | both credit supply and demand are indicative for future loan growth developments (chart 20). a shift in credit standards tends to lead annual loan growth to firms by about five to six quarters, making loan growth a rather late economic indicator in the transmission of monetary policy compared with survey and market rate indicators. the net tightening of credit standards on loans to firms which we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely translate into a dampening impact on the annual growth rate of loans in the coming quarters. while currently still strong, banks expect loan demand by firms to decrease in the coming quarters, related to weakening economic growth and diminishing frontloading effects, in line with the usual delay in loan growth developments compared to real … |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.046 | the inflation outlook is stronger today than it was before the pandemic. therefore, once the current crisis has abated, ensuring that monetary policy accompanies the recovery with a light touch may be consistent with a further adjustment in our net asset purchases. beyond that, additional modifications to our stance should be considered carefully, for three main reasons. |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.044 | 2.2 a paradigm shift: the pandemic but it took another crisis to make a qualitative leap. european leaders recognised in spring 2020 that a strong, symmetric fiscal response to offset the economic damage caused by the pandemic was in the economic interests of all euro area countries. [11] fiscal and state aid rules were suspended, and powerful common instruments were introduced. |
The most representative speeches:
5.86 Topic 86: european; central; european central bank; european central; board
5.86.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | european | 1 | 0.0672676 | board | 1 | 0.9992115 |
| 86 | central | 2 | 0.0552581 | executive | 2 | 0.9992111 |
| 86 | european central bank | 3 | 0.0493239 | executive board | 3 | 0.9992109 |
| 86 | european central | 4 | 0.0491826 | peter | 4 | 0.9985974 |
| 86 | board | 5 | 0.0440962 | peter praet | 5 | 0.9985971 |
| 86 | bank | 6 | 0.0435311 | praet | 6 | 0.9984229 |
| 86 | central bank | 7 | 0.0421182 | benoît | 7 | 0.9981149 |
| 86 | member | 8 | 0.0357602 | benoît cœuré | 8 | 0.9978084 |
| 86 | executive | 9 | 0.0320867 | interview | 9 | 0.9976343 |
| 86 | executive board | 10 | 0.0298261 | european central bank | 10 | 0.9975424 |
| 86 | speech | 11 | 0.0264351 | central bank ecb | 11 | 0.9974583 |
| 86 | praet | 12 | 0.0158385 | european central | 12 | 0.9972792 |
| 86 | remark | 13 | 0.0148495 | cœuré | 13 | 0.9969334 |
| 86 | peter | 14 | 0.0123063 | praet member | 14 | 0.9968869 |
| 86 | peter praet | 15 | 0.0110347 | peter praet member | 15 | 0.9964925 |
5.86.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr Erçel discusses the monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 1999-01-08 | 0.151 | the ecb’s governing council, consisting of the governors of the national central banks of the euro area and the ecb’s executive board, will determine the basic outlines of the ecb’s monetary policy. the chosen strategy will be carried out by the ecb’s executive board, consisting of a governor, vice governor and four members appointed by the president or prime minister of countries in the european monetary system. |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Assessment of the euro cash changeover and the ECB view on recent monetary and economic developments | Period_1 | 2002-01-17 | 0.119 | thank you very much for inviting me to participate in today’s new year reception. in my speech today, i will address two issues, neither of which is likely to come as a surprise to you. first, i should like to assess the euro cash changeover, which started a fortnight ago. second, i should like to share with you the view of the governing council of the european central bank (ecb) on recent monetary and economic developments. |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.115 | the euro area. further, you may also recall that, as required by its statute, the escb will publish its consolidated balance sheet on a weekly basis. my colleagues on the executive board of the ecb and i intend to be very active in giving speeches dealing with all issues of relevance for the conduct of monetary policy. i am convinced that the governors of the national central banks will also play their role in this respect. |
| Lucas Papademos: Economic outlook in the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-06-17 | 0.108 | introduction it is a great pleasure for me to participate in the asem finance ministers’ meeting. in my statement, i will focus on the economic outlook in the euro area, with special emphasis on inflation prospects and risk, the monetary policy stance of the european central bank (ecb), recent financial market developments and our assessment of the outlook for financial stability. |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.096 | mr duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the european system of central banks keynote address to the president of the european central bank, dr w.f. duisenberg, at a conference organised by the royal institute of international affairs on european economic and monetary union markets and politics under the euro in london on 27/11/98. ladies and gentlemen, i should like to express my appreciation at being invited to deliver a speech at this conference organised by the royal institute of international affairs. it is a great pleasure for me to be here, in london, today. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Consolidating the euro area’s economic recovery | Period_2 | 2015-05-19 | 0.307 | 5 “ opinion on a proposal for a regulation of the european parliament and of the council on structural measures improving the resilience of eu credit institutions”, 19 november 2014. 6 “ investing in europe: towards a new convergence process”, speech by benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the ecb, athens, 9 july 2014. 7 “ the political dimension of european economic integration”, speech by benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the 19th université d’automne de la ligue des droits de l’homme, paris, 23 november 2013. 8 as regards capital markets, for example. see, in this regard, “completing the single market in capital”, speech by benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the ecb, paris, 19 may 2014. |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.188 | reflections on monetary policy page 1 of 18 reflections on monetary policy keynote speech by philip r. lane, member of the executive board of the ecb, at bloomberg, london, 16 september 2019 i will divide this speech into two parts. first, i wish to review the current economic and financial environment. second, i will discuss the monetary policy decisions taken by the governing council in last week’s meeting.[1] |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.182 | the monetary policy toolbox: evidence from the euro area keynote speech by philip r. lane, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the 2020 us monetary policy forum introduction i would like to thank chicago booth for inviting me to speak at the 2020 u.s. monetary policy forum, sponsored by the initiative on global markets at the university of chicago booth school of business, new york, new york.[1] |
| Benoît Cœuré: Heterogeneity and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-04-02 | 0.171 | benoît cœuré: heterogeneity and the european central bank’s monetary policy speech by mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the bank of france symposium & 34th suerf colloquium on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the euro on “the euro area: staying the course through uncertainties”, paris, 29 march 2019. * * * from the beginning of the euro area’s existence, it was well known that it did not meet all of the classic requirements of an optimal currency area. some critics have seen heterogeneity across member states as the factor that would ultimately cause the collapse of the single currency. but the euro is still here, despite years of crisis. while managing heterogeneity between regions and countries has been a challenge – at times tremen… |
| Philip R Lane: Interview with Sky TG24 | Period_2 | 2019-11-27 | 0.165 | philip r lane: interview with sky tg24 transcript of the interview with mr philip r lane, member of the executive board of the european central bank, and sky tg24, conducted by mr alessandro marenzi, sky tg24, with the participation of mr federico fubini, corriere della sera, and mr franco bruni, bocconi university, and broadcast on 23 november 2019. * * * alessandro marenzi: sette anni fa draghi disse: faremo tutto quello che serve per preservare l’euro. [..] dopo sette anni c’è ancora questo problema di preservare l’euro o non si pone nemmeno più la questione? philip lane: what we have seen in the last seven years is a very long track record of a very stable currency. remember what we have seen in these years: we’ve seen the interest rates in europe very low, the spreads between gover… |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.243 | frank elderson: the european central bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances keynote speech by mr frank elderson, member of the executive board of the european central bank and vice-chair of the supervisory board of the ecb, at the european parliament conference on “greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation”, brussels, 28 september 2022. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.173 | the monetary policy strategy of the ecb: the playbook for monetary policy decisions speech by philip r. lane, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the hertie school, berlin | welcome the invitation to speak at the hertie school, which has such a strong record in european public policy research, including research on the institutional architecture of the euro area. | especially wish to acknowledge the exceptional contributions of the late professor henrik enderlein, who played a founding role in the development of the jacques delors centre. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.146 | speech by isabel schnabel, member of the executive board of the ecb, at a virtual event organised by goldman sachs frankfurt am main, 17 november 2021 the recovery from the pandemic has been exceptional on many accounts. in the euro area, it has been faster and stronger than any recovery since the second world war. it has also been bumpier than most previous recoveries, with recurring phases of accelerating and decelerating growth. and it has been characterised by an unusually distinct mismatch between supply and demand, causing the prices of many products, including energy, to rise measurably. |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.140 | frank elderson: proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the european central bank concrete keynote speech by mr frank elderson, member of the executive board of the european central bank and vice-chair of the supervisory board of the ecb, at the institute of international & european affairs webinar, frankfurt am main, 24 march 2022. * * * as no doubt all of you joining me here today, we at the european central bank look with horror at the distressing reports from ukraine. the human suffering and destruction we see in our part of the world remains difficult to fathom. our hearts and minds are with the people of ukraine. with those who are still in harm’s way, and with those who have been forced to seek refuge elsewhere, mainly in the european … |
| Isabel Schnabel: The globalisation of inflation | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.131 | isabel schnabel: the globalisation of inflation speech by ms isabel schnabel, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at a conference organised by the österreichische vereinigung für finanzanalyse und asset management, vienna, 11 may 2022. * * * accompanying slides can be found on the european central bank’s website. there are two competing views on the impact of globalisation on domestic inflation. one view is that the global component of inflation by and large reflects price swings in energy and commodity markets.1 globalisation may affect underlying inflation, but these effects are judged to be economically small. the alternative view is that global economic slack matters for domestic underlying inflation and that globalisation may have lowered the sensitivity of … |
The most representative speeches:
5.87 Topic 87: change; structural; economy; set; factor
5.87.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | change | 1 | 0.1432154 | structural change | 1 | 0.9994741 |
| 87 | structural | 2 | 0.0381331 | change | 2 | 0.9989476 |
| 87 | economy | 3 | 0.0318633 | price change | 3 | 0.9985967 |
| 87 | set | 4 | 0.0289791 | price set | 4 | 0.9985102 |
| 87 | factor | 5 | 0.0258442 | frequency | 5 | 0.9975893 |
| 87 | impact | 6 | 0.0212046 | online | 6 | 0.9969280 |
| 87 | structural change | 7 | 0.0190728 | rate change | 7 | 0.9966178 |
| 87 | adjustment | 8 | 0.0168157 | commerce | 8 | 0.9965307 |
| 87 | datum | 9 | 0.0165649 | sticky | 9 | 0.9964014 |
| 87 | affect | 10 | 0.0153109 | pattern | 10 | 0.9958822 |
| 87 | shock | 11 | 0.0148093 | persistence | 11 | 0.9957048 |
| 87 | structure | 12 | 0.0146839 | structural | 12 | 0.9955133 |
| 87 | price set | 13 | 0.0115490 | set behaviour | 13 | 0.9953069 |
| 87 | response | 14 | 0.0111728 | rigidity | 14 | 0.9946113 |
| 87 | process | 15 | 0.0107966 | alter | 15 | 0.9946089 |
5.87.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The euro area and its monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-09-11 | 0.273 | find the euro area at bottom-left corner, close to the zero point: low inflation volatility has not come at the cost of larger swings in activity. now, moderate real and nominal volatilities are hard to square – at first sight – with the second element of my diagnosis: a structural environment in the euro area characterised by pervasive rigidities. while the sources of structural rigidities in the euro area are manifold, i will single out one dimension on which we have access to high-quality information, nominal rigidities. here i can build on an extensive body of empirical research into price flexibility that has been assembled by staff of the european central bank (ecb) and of the entire european system of central banks in a monumental analytical effort to identify the main microecono… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.250 | more infrequent price revisions make the setting of prices less responsive to economic news, including, as i already pointed out, changes in monetary conditions. in general, sticky price revision processes reduce the odds that the imbalances created by economic shocks can be rectified by adjustments in prices. conversely, they make the burden of adjustment to a shock fall disproportionately on changes in output, incomes and employment. also, stickier prices tend – all other things being equal – to increase the persistence of inflation. this is because the impact of a shock that today modifies firms’ real cost conditions tends to be spread out over an extended future, as staggered price adjustments catch up only slowly with the changed underlying circumstances. despite sluggish price-set… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Issues in monetary policy - views from the ECB | Period_1 | 2004-04-30 | 0.232 | central banks and uncertainty the ecb, like all central banks, is faced with several dimensions of acute uncertainty. the economy is continuously hit by disturbances that are often difficult to identify in real time. even when policy-makers are able to correctly assess the source and the nature of a disturbance affecting the economy, tracking its propagation profile and assessing its final impact on the key variables of interest to policymakers is a daunting task. econometric theory has spent decades devising sophisticated tools to isolate different types of shocks from the tangle that appears in the data. but inference is often non-robust across various identification schemes. and real-time identification remains central banks’ holy grail. as a consequence, central bankers are given li… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Activism and alertness in monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-06-16 | 0.228 | structures this structural feature brings me to the second category of my remarks: the structure of the economy on this side of the atlantic. i will concentrate on two factors that critically affect the relationship between inflation and the fundamental shocks that drive the economy and determine its state: price flexibility and the anchoring of price-setting. extensive empirical research on price flexibility and inflation persistence in the euro area has recently been produced in a concerted effort that has occupied staff of the ecb and of the entire european system of central banks. 8 it comes to two main conclusions. first, in the euro area, prices are distinctly less flexible than, say, in the united states. prices change infrequently: the average duration of a consumer price spell … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-03-22 | 0.220 | and what feature of the economic structures and institutions is responsible for what particular aspect of the transmission of monetary policy impulses. structural analysis has concentrated – more fundamentally – on two related aspects. first, it has constructed measures of price and wage rigidity: these have been expressed by the frequency of price and wage adjustments. in economies with more rigid goods and labour markets – where, for example, labour practices and contractual institutions hamper a prompt transmission of shocks to wages – the macroeconomic adjustment to shocks takes longer to run its course and, more importantly, falls disproportionately on production and employment. second, structural analysis has provided evidence of the sensitivity of inflation expectations to past i… |
| Yves Mersch: Central banking in times of technological progress | Period_2 | 2017-08-07 | 0.393 | of course, change in consumption habits and expenditure patterns are not a particularly new problem for statistical agencies to deal with. it has long been recognised that regularly updating weights and the goods and services included in the basket results in an index that better describes the prices faced by consumers. consumer price indices, including the harmonised index of consumer prices used in the euro area, have already made large strides in adapting their methodology to account for changes in technology. and technology has itself been a benefit in price collection. gone are the days of price collectors walking through shops with a clipboard with reams of paperwork requiring multiple input steps. price collection on the ground is now carried out with electronic tablets directly … |
| Yves Mersch: Remarks at the “Challenges in Understanding the Monetary Transmission Mechanism” conference | Period_2 | 2019-03-25 | 0.318 | e-commerce may result in suppliers changing prices more frequently. 10 not only are amazon’s prices more flexible than prices of brick-and-mortar stores, amazon’s competitors are forced to adjust prices more often for products that are also offered by amazon.11more frequent price changes result in a steeper phillips curve – prices react more quickly and strongly to changes in costs and output. this could also mean that inflation reacts much faster to monetary policy.12 since online stores effectively offer the same price across locations, e-commerce may restrict the ability of businesses to set prices that deviate substantially from those of large online retailers while reflecting local conditions. so prices may change more often, but they may be more uniform, which in turn may restrict… |
| Philip R Lane: International inflation co-movements | Period_2 | 2020-05-25 | 0.307 | ecb and bloomberg. structural change and inflation outcomes the structure of the economy matters for wage and price-setting dynamics and the transmission of shocks to the real economy. two categories of structural change may have contributed to greater co-movement in inflation outcomes. first, structural changes that increase international interdependence mean that a shock in one region may also affect economic performance and inflation outcomes in other regions. second, structural changes that affect national economies in similar ways mean that there may be a common pattern in observed inflation even if shocks are mainly domestic in origin. in contrast, other types of structural change have the potential to contribute to divergent inflation outcomes across countries. economic and finan… |
| Yves Mersch: Remarks at the “Challenges in Understanding the Monetary Transmission Mechanism” conference | Period_2 | 2019-03-25 | 0.185 | lower prices. fragmentation of labour time is shown in the diverging results of compensation per employee and compensation per hour worked. for some workers this is a positive development, allowing them to participate in the workforce where previously they were excluded.6 for others, the greater individualisation can lead to insecurity, affecting households’ income. more individualised roles can also weaken the power of collective bargaining to maintain the labour share of income.7 while the productivity-enhancing aspects of digitalisation might tend to raise potential output growth, the effects operating through labour and capital are more uncertain, and might even work in different directions. there may be some substitution of labour for capital, with possible repercussions for the ba… |
| Philip R Lane: International inflation co-movements | Period_2 | 2020-05-25 | 0.178 | while available estimates point to digitalisation having had only a small impact on aggregate price dynamics, the effects may become larger as digitalisation becomes more pervasive. so far, the steady- state impact of digitalisation on market structures and pricing dynamics remains quite uncertain. for example, while 43 percent of respondents to a survey on price setting in the united kingdom cited increased competition as a reason for increasing the frequency of price setting over the previous decade, 42 percent cited it as a reason for reducing the frequency.[23], [24] |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.375 | challenges this claim, finding no noticeable slowdown in the rate of price resets (chart 8). work in progress in the eurosystem shows that the rate of price changes may even have increased during the pandemic. chart 8 frequency of price changes: a comparison of ipn (data: 1996-2001) and prisma (data: 2011-2017) results (percentages) @ processed food @ services g non-energy industrial goods om 45° 0.50 0.45 ® £0.40 : @ 0.35 — 5 0.30 paar ee ® ; gp (0:25 * ; o * °, = 20 ° ® < 0.15 = a2. : e° q 0.10 e°.@ e° c #0005 | ome - 0.00 es 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 ipn (data: 1996-2001) source: gautier et al. (2021), “new facts on consumer price rigidity in the euro area’, working paper series, ecb (forthcoming). note: the chart shows the frequency of price changes documented b… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.295 | digging deeper into the micro evidence since the golosov-lucas paper was published, economists have been studying numerous micro price datasets from different countries. researchers have been busy constructing models that can match various features of the micro data, including the average frequency and size of price changes. in 2018 the european system of central banks established prisma – the price-setting microdata analysis network – to collect and study various kinds of micro data, aiming to deepen our understanding of price-setting behaviour and inflation dynamics. today, peter karadi will present the findings from a research project undertaken as part of the prisma network. in the paper, peter and his co-authors raphael schoenle and jesse wursten set out to measure the selection ef… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.209 | early micro evidence on the effects of policy rates with the advent of more and more granular data, research shifted its focus to micro data on prices. researchers documented how individual firms set prices, aiming at building models that would be consistent with both the price-setting behaviour at the micro level and the effects of monetary policy in the macro data. meeting these two objectives simultaneously proved challenging. when economists studied the micro data underlying the consumer price index in the united states and other countries, they found that individual price changes are infrequent but typically large in absolute terms, in the order of 10%.[4] in their famous paper “menu costs and phillips curves”, mikhail golosov and robert lucas investigated the implications of this … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.193 | 0 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 = 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 competitor-reset-price gap (in %) karadi, p., schoenle, r. and wursten, j. (2021), “measuring price selection in microdata: it’s not there”, working paper series, no 2566, ecb. note: the figure shows the probability of a price change as a function of mispricing in the euro area and the united states. the v-shape of the curve is consistent with state-dependent price setting: the probability of adjustment steadily increases with the extent of mispricing. the extent of mispricing is proxied as a distance from the average price of the same product among those competitors that reset their prices in the same month. the measure also controls for the persistent heterogeneity among products and… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.115 | the second source of uncertainty | would like to discuss today relates to potential behavioural changes induced by the pandemic. microeconomic rigidities such as those stemming from wage- and price-setting behaviour have profound implications for the transmission of monetary policy. collectively, these rigidities play a crucial but subtle role in determining the location and slope of the phillips curve — a reduced form description of how changes in aggregate demand put pressure on inflation. this relationship can arise from underlying structural relations in a wide class of state-of-the- art sticky price models, as one paper at this conference will show.!13! |
The most representative speeches:
5.88 Topic 88: change; transition; climate; energy; green
5.88.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | change | 1 | 0.0536420 | climate | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 88 | transition | 2 | 0.0496075 | green | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 88 | climate | 3 | 0.0494394 | digital | 3 | 0.9992991 |
| 88 | energy | 4 | 0.0354867 | climate change | 4 | 0.9992990 |
| 88 | green | 5 | 0.0322928 | transition | 5 | 0.9992111 |
| 88 | digital | 6 | 0.0227108 | carbon | 6 | 0.9989485 |
| 88 | climate change | 7 | 0.0223746 | green transition | 7 | 0.9984225 |
| 88 | relate | 8 | 0.0200212 | emission | 8 | 0.9978084 |
| 88 | carbon | 9 | 0.0180039 | fossil | 9 | 0.9975893 |
| 88 | investment | 10 | 0.0166591 | fossil fuel | 10 | 0.9970192 |
| 88 | accelerate | 11 | 0.0149781 | fuel | 11 | 0.9968021 |
| 88 | plan | 12 | 0.0127927 | climate relate | 12 | 0.9968001 |
| 88 | eu | 13 | 0.0127927 | gas | 13 | 0.9964954 |
| 88 | green transition | 14 | 0.0124565 | accelerate | 14 | 0.9964925 |
| 88 | risk | 15 | 0.0122884 | digitalisation | 15 | 0.9964079 |
5.88.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy in challenging times | Period_1 | 2008-06-06 | 0.079 | first of all, let me say that i am in the purdah period, so that nothing i will say should be interpreted in any respect as signalling intentions of the governing council as regards the monetary policy stance. economic policymakers are currently grappling to understand the root, duration sand impact of a number of significant and sizeable shocks affecting the world economy, including rising commodity prices – of which sharp increases in world food and oil prices have been prominent components – as well as a period of prolonged financial turbulences associated with an adjustment in financial market perceptions of risk. understanding those economic shocks and how they affect the economy is plainly a vital challenge for policymakers. in my remarks today, i would like to stress that, rather… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Willem F Duisenberg Fellowship of the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study | Period_1 | 2008-03-05 | 0.052 | i would like to turn now to some of the reform policies pursued in the netherlands that led to the remarkable performance of the dutch labour market over the last quarter of a century. speaking of structural reforms, and the successful reforms carried out by the netherlands, it seems fitting that professor boeri, who is known as a forceful exponent of economic liberalisation and structural reform in europe, and in particular in his own country, will be conducting his fellowship at the netherlands institute for advanced study located in wassenaar, where, 25 years ago, the decisive wassenaar agreement was signed, steering the course towards change and initiating the remarkable and substantial recovery of the dutch economy. the main outcome of the wassenaar agreement was the establishment … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Issues in monetary policy - views from the ECB | Period_1 | 2004-04-30 | 0.052 | mrs president, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, it is a great honour and a pleasure to be invited to speak to the economic club of new york on the eve of a defining moment in europe’s history. only five years ago we engaged in a grand enterprise of institutional design that irreversibly tied together the economic and monetary destiny of eleven, then twelve, nations. in five days from now, the european union will complete its largest ever expansion. what was originally a community of six countries in western europe will become a union of 25, spanning a geographic area that used to be divided by an iron curtain. today we can watch some 450 million europeans dismantling the barbed wire of political hatred and economic seclusion that had split the continent for more than half a century. … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Jackson Hole Conference - monetary policy and ‘credible alertness’ | Period_1 | 2005-09-01 | 0.051 | released, expectations of the short-term interest rates will adjust in the equilibrating direction that markets expect to see implemented by the central bank. such a credibility asset can turn out to be very beneficial in cases of major shocks and risks. it is clear that a world in which central banks’ inclinations and market views are perfectly aligned is unlikely to emerge in reality. however, decades of academic reflection and central banks’ quest for stability have not past in vain. our keen preoccupation with making ourselves understood by words and deeds has established a new climate of mutual understanding with academics, investors, market participants and public opinion at large. we have stepped up the number of gatherings in which we document our strategies and carefully explai… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Towards a more integrated Europe - challenges ahead for the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe | Period_1 | 2011-10-24 | 0.050 | the changes that europe has seen over the last two decades have been enormous right from the start, the countries of central and eastern europe embarked on a hugely ambitious path of reform. leaving aside differences across countries, a long and challenging process of economic transformation brought countries in the region significant improvements in incomes and living standards. full membership of the eu – or the prospects of accession – provided an important stimulus for the process of transformation as well as an anchor of stability. in western europe, completion of the three stages of emu led to the establishment of the european central bank (ecb) and the introduction of the euro in january 1999. having started originally with 11 participating countries, the euro area has since expa… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.193 | 10 academic studies project that the risks of extreme heatwaves and floods will increase by around another 50% this century. see mann et al. (2018), “projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: the role of quasi-resonant amplification”, science advances, vol 4(10). and evidence of such an increase is already visible. according to the european academies’ science advisory council, the number of global floods and other hydrological events has quadrupled since 1980 and doubled since 2004. see european academies’ science advisory council (2018), “extreme weather events in europe – preparing for climate change adaptation: an update on easac’s 2013 study”, march; and stott, p. (2016), “how climate change affects extreme weather events”, science, vol 352(6293), pp. 1517–1518…. |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.190 | benoît cœuré: monetary policy and climate change speech by mr benoît cœuré, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at a conference on “scaling up green finance: the role of central banks”, organised by the network for greening the financial system, the deutsche bundesbank and the council on economic policies, berlin, 8 november 2018. * * * 2018 has seen one of the hottest summers in europe since weather records began.1 i would like to thank torsti silvonen, fabio tamburrini and sam langfield for their contributions to this speech. i remain solely responsible for the opinions contained herein. increasing weather extremes, rising sea levels and arctic melting are now clearly visible consequences of human-induced warming.2 climate change is not a theory. it is a fact. … |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.183 | we are doing this by supporting ongoing work in various international and european fora aimed at enhancing the pricing of climate change and transition risks and promoting the reorientation of financial flows towards sustainable investment products.27 a tangible side effect of these measures is that, once adopted, they will automatically be reflected in our collateral framework. that is, once markets and credit risk agencies price climate risks properly, the amount of collateralised borrowing counterparties can obtain from the ecb will be adjusted accordingly. we have also joined the central banks and supervisors network for greening the financial system. ecb staff are contributing in all three work streams. my presence here today emphasises that we take our membership seriously. the ne… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.178 | 3 see stern, n. (2007), “the economics of climate change: the stern review”, cambridge university press. estimating the economic damage requires assumptions on society’s time preference which are controversial. discussing these assumptions is beyond the scope of this speech. 4 see nordhaus, w. d. (2007), “to tax or not to tax: alternative approaches to slowing global warming”, review of environmental economics and policy, 1(1), pp. 26–44. 5 see carney, m. (2015), “breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability”, speech given at lloyd’s of london, 29 september. 6 the global financial crisis of 2008 is a good example. as house prices fell and firms struggled to access external finance, consumption and investment collapsed while unemployment rose, pushing down… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.169 | is left unchecked or humankind rises to the climate change challenge. this is my second corollary. let me start with the more disturbing scenario in which both the private and the public sector fail to take prompt action to cut co2 emissions in line with the cop21 commitments. on this trajectory, climate change is likely to affect the conduct of monetary policy in three important ways. the first relates to our ability to correctly identify the shocks hitting the economy. in recent years, for example, we have repeatedly observed an unusual blip in economic activity in the united states in the first quarter. this has often been attributed to a harsh winter, despite best efforts to seasonally adjust the data. but causality is inherently difficult to establish. indeed, statistical analysis … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Looking through higher energy prices? Monetary policy and the green transition | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.312 | transition phase may bring protracted period of higher energy inflation while such relative price changes are desirable and intended, they may weigh on the economy if firms and households cannot substitute more expensive carbon-intensive energy with greener and cheaper alternatives.2! higher carbon prices work in part by stimulating investments and innovation in low-carbon technologies. but these investments will take time. at present, renewable energy has not yet proven sufficiently scalable to meet rapidly rising demand. in the eu, renewable energies currently account for only around 20% of energy consumption. the fit for 55 package proposes increasing this share in the eu to 40% by 2030. the combination of insufficient production capacity of renewable energies in the short run, subdu… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.300 | climate actions are still falling short of the paris objectives over the past few years, we have embarked on a demanding journey to make our monetary policy framework climate change-proof. in 2021, we decided on a comprehensive and ambitious set of measures as part of our first climate change action plan and we have begun to deliver on those commitments.[19] we have started to integrate climate change considerations into our macroeconomic models. we will soon publish new experimental statistical indicators related to climate change. and we will increasingly address climate risks in our risk control and collateral frameworks, including by eventually making climate-related corporate disclosures compulsory for bonds to remain eligible as collateral in our refinancing operations. the eurosy… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.251 | conclusion let me conclude. many central banks globally are responding to current high inflation by tightening financing conditions. while a higher cost of credit will make the financing of renewable energies and green technologies more expensive, it would be misleading to use higher interest rates as a scapegoat for a further delay in the green transition, for two main reasons: first, restoring price stability in a timely manner provides the conditions under which the green transition can thrive sustainably. and second, the largest barrier to a rapid decarbonisation remains the lack of progress by governments in implementing prior climate commitments. governments must remain in the lead in accelerating the green transition. by promoting green technologies and renewable energies, they w… |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.240 | longer inflation levels stay above our target, the greater the risk of second-round effects – through wage increases or the de-anchoring of inflation expectations. amid the present uncertainty, future decisions on policy rates will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach. to keep the green transition on track, concrete policy actions are needed to make the most of the opportunities provided by the current energy crisis. expanding the share of renewable energy supplies would reduce dependency on fossil fuels. it would also benefit price stability, given the declining prices for renewable energy observed during the past decade. in addition, to bring down energy costs sustainably over the medium term, governments should act to dismantle the regulatory barrier… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.236 | fiscal policy needs to accelerate the green transition in this environment, fiscal policy needs to remain in the driving seat when it comes to fighting climate change. regrettably, many governments failed to use the past years of low interest rates to accelerate investments in greener and more sustainable energy carriers at a pace commensurate with the challenges we are facing. hence, the largest impediment to a rapid decarbonisation is not the cost of capital, but rather the considerable lack of progress by governments in implementing prior climate commitments. the oecd, for example, estimates that global fiscal support for the production and consumption of coal, oil and gas almost doubled in 2021. russia’s invasion of ukraine has almost certainly led to a further increase in inefficie… |
The most representative speeches:
5.89 Topic 89: cash; banknote; eurosystem; changeover; national
5.89.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | cash | 1 | 0.0421298 | banknote | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 89 | banknote | 2 | 0.0361332 | cash | 2 | 0.9997371 |
| 89 | eurosystem | 3 | 0.0316705 | changeover | 3 | 0.9996495 |
| 89 | changeover | 4 | 0.0272079 | euro banknote | 4 | 0.9992990 |
| 89 | national | 5 | 0.0240004 | coin | 5 | 0.9989486 |
| 89 | coin | 6 | 0.0220481 | cash changeover | 6 | 0.9988609 |
| 89 | euro banknote | 7 | 0.0213508 | national central | 7 | 0.9980725 |
| 89 | introduction | 8 | 0.0163303 | national central bank | 8 | 0.9978096 |
| 89 | public | 9 | 0.0159120 | euro cash | 9 | 0.9972806 |
| 89 | cash changeover | 10 | 0.0157725 | eur | 10 | 0.9970201 |
| 89 | national central | 11 | 0.0154936 | circulation | 11 | 0.9968435 |
| 89 | national central bank | 12 | 0.0146569 | preparation | 12 | 0.9966269 |
| 89 | currency | 13 | 0.0140990 | euro cash changeover | 13 | 0.9965775 |
| 89 | citizen | 14 | 0.0124256 | credit institution | 14 | 0.9957909 |
| 89 | general | 15 | 0.0117283 | eurosystem | 15 | 0.9956031 |
5.89.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem F Duisenberg: Testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2002-01-25 | 0.667 |
|
| Willem F Duisenberg: Assessment of the euro cash changeover and the ECB view on recent monetary and economic developments | Period_1 | 2002-01-17 | 0.582 | a first assessment of the euro cash changeover on 1 january 1999 the euro was established as a new currency. two weeks ago, the euro banknotes and coins were issued and became legal tender in the countries participating in the euro area. with their arrival, the process of introducing a single european currency, as agreed in maastricht in 1991, is complete. paying with a single currency in daily transactions throughout the euro area can be regarded as an achievement of historic proportions and as a major step in the process of european integration. the eurosystem, the ecb and the 12 national central banks (ncbs) of the euro area as well as all other parties involved were quite confident – although of course not 100% certain – that the euro cash changeover would be a success, given the en… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Assessment of the euro cash changeover and the ECB view on recent monetary and economic developments | Period_1 | 2002-01-17 | 0.580 | third, a crucial factor for the success of the euro cash changeover was the decision to allow the frontloading and sub-frontloading of banknotes and coins to the banking sector and to other target groups from 1 september 2001. this four-month lead time was required in order to ensure that sufficient euro banknotes and coins were available for widespread circulation from 1 january 2002. in fact, the scale and timing of frontloading and sub-frontloading varied considerably between different countries, depending on the national changeover scenario chosen, the national infrastructure (e.g. the extent of the central bank branch network and its role in the money supply, the storage facilities available in bank branches) as well as the size and geography of the country. in almost all euro area… |
| Christian Noyer: The stability-oriented monetary policy of the ECB | Period_1 | 2001-09-14 | 0.542 | smooth cash changeover can only be achieved in a short period of time by systematic and co-ordinated interaction on the part of all the main participants. third, the successful introduction of euro cash is preceded by a goal-oriented information campaign to prepare the general public and professional cash handlers in europe for the new currency. the president of the ecb launched this campaign on 30 august and at the same time presented the details of the new banknotes to the public. this new currency which will be in some 100 days’ time in our pockets, is our money, a tangible reality and a symbol of european integration in every sense of the word. the euro banknotes are produced with state-of-the-art security standards and combine many of the highly effective security features already … |
| Willem F Duisenberg: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2000 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2001-07-03 | 0.491 | insurance against potential production risks, in march 2001 the ecb decided to establish a eurosystem central reserve. this reserve will amount to about 10% of the launch and logistical stocks. on 1 january 2001 the eurosystem launched the “euro 2002 information campaign”, which is designed to complement other information campaigns being conducted at the national level. the main objective of the campaign is to familiarise the general public and specific target groups with the visual appearance of the euro banknotes and their security features and to raise the awareness of citizens about the overall changeover modalities. the information campaign is progressing on schedule. it will become fully visible for citizens once the mass media part of the campaign starts on 30 august 2001, after … |
| Yves Mersch: Central banking in times of technological progress | Period_2 | 2017-08-07 | 0.167 | add caution. far more detailed research is needed into the most beneficial system for all parties, and not just for financial institutions. as just one example, suppose central banks stopped providing cash and instead shifted to just providing digital base money (dbm) – an electronic claim on the central bank. would the system involve each individual having an account at the central bank, or involve a decentralised system where each individual has an electronic wallet and the central bank is unaware of transactions that take place. either system could be implemented using a distributed ledger, but the set up would be quite different in each scenario.17 in any case, just as cash has a number of technological safeguards to protect from counterfeiting, dbm would require significant safegua… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview in Rheinische Post | Period_2 | 2016-02-15 | 0.119 | what is your personal view? personally i think that we now have fewer reasons for keeping the €500 note than we did when the euro was first introduced, because electronic payments have become much more important. we have been told that the banknote is increasingly being used for criminal activities. that’s why i believe that the €500 banknote will eventually be withdrawn, but it has to be done carefully. let me emphasise that this does not mean that we should do away with cash in general. cash is crucial in our everyday lives. so even if the €500 note no longer exists, people will still be able to use all of the other banknotes. given the high importance of cash for the citizens, there is no discussion whatsoever about getting rid of it in general. |
| Vítor Constâncio: Interview in Börsen-Zeitung | Period_2 | 2016-01-13 | 0.119 | does the refugee crisis also call into question “the whole edifice”? first, please allow me to say one thing: i very much admire how germany behaved in response to the initial shock of the refugee crisis – the willingness to welcome large numbers of refugees without solidarity from other european countries. now, as regards your question, we were all, and are still, concerned about the possible consequences, especially given the rapid turn of events in the beginning. however, it is my impression that the process is now under better control. at the end of the day, this could be a very good thing for europe. what exactly do you mean by that? europe is facing a serious demographic problem. the proportion of the population which is of working age is already receding significantly and, if not… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Handelsblatt | Period_2 | 2015-12-28 | 0.083 | you have often used market-based inflation expectations to argue for monetary easing. are markets still a useful source of information for monetary policy? i never take only one indicator. and we don’t conduct monetary policy on the basis of market prices. that is only one part of the information we look at. even when there’s no news, the markets are still subject to a lot of volatility anyway. a number of german politicians have recently voiced strong criticism of a secret agreement on the purchase of securities by the national central banks. some of those banks have purchased on a large scale, others not. why is there this difference? there’s no secret agreement. when the currency union was founded governments decided to transfer functions and tasks that are necessary for monetary pol… |
| Yves Mersch: Central banking in times of technological progress | Period_2 | 2017-08-07 | 0.072 | in the labour market the internet allows for more services being offered with less intermediation at lower prices. fragmentation of labour time is shown in the diverging results of compensation per employee and compensation per hour worked. for some workers this is a positive development,13 allowing them to participate in the workforce where previously they may have been unable. but for others, the greater individualisation of roles can lead to insecurity, in turn affecting households’ income and spending. more individualised roles can also weaken the ability of collective bargaining to maintain the labour share of income.14 these changes combined could lower the nairu,15 changing the phillips curve relationship between unemployment and wage pressure, and hence how monetary policy shoul… |
| Christine Lagarde: Welcome address marking the change in office of the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.105 | seriously. but people can trust that our commitment to price stability is unwavering, which is critical for the firm anchoring of inflation expectations and for confidence in the currency. the whole governing council is united in pursuit of this goal. at the same time, one of the key strengths of the eurosystem is the way that it brings together different perspectives to form a consensus. our rich quality of debate and diversity of views ensures that our decisions are robust. in this respect, i shall certainly miss my times with jens. he has always been a very articulate voice on the governing council, presenting his views with precision and clarity. and he has embodied the best of the bundesbank tradition of faithfulness to the mandate. alongside the challenges of ensuring price stabil… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Asset purchases – from crisis to recovery | Period_3 | 2021-09-23 | 0.080 | 7 see krishnamurthy, a. and vissing-jorgensen, a. (2012), “the aggregate demand for treasury debt”, journal of political economy, vol. 120. 8 after deductions for the general reserve fund, the ecb’s net profit is distributed to euro area national central banks in proportion to their paid-up shares. 9 see also rajan, r. (2021), “the dangers of endless quantitative easing”, project syndicate, 2 august. |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.069 | furthermore, very good progress has been made as regards the imf’s new resilience and sustainability trust (rst), which has now become operational. for contributions by eu national central banks, it is essential that claims on the rst maintain reserve asset quality. in our assessment, the modalities of the loan and deposit accounts of the rst, as well as the deposit and investment account of the poverty reduction and growth trust, are acceptable in that regard. however, we note that the channelling of special drawing rights by eu national central banks to multilateral development banks or individual countries would not be compatible with the eu’s legal framework. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.061 |
|
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.051 | average spread of short-term repo rates to €str over 2022 brokertec/mts and ecb calculations. notes: gc refers to general collateral and cash-driven repo transactions. non-gc refers to non-general collateral and collateral-driven repo transactions. the chart displays the average spread of the respective repo rate to the €str since the beginning of 2022. the latest observations are for 13 september 2022. |
The most representative speeches:
5.90 Topic 90: european; union; monetary union; europe; european union
5.90.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | european | 1 | 0.1258483 | monetary union | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 90 | union | 2 | 0.1242933 | european union | 2 | 0.9996494 |
| 90 | monetary union | 3 | 0.0754245 | union | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 90 | europe | 4 | 0.0634295 | emu | 4 | 0.9985102 |
| 90 | european union | 5 | 0.0281107 | european integration | 5 | 0.9984658 |
| 90 | emu | 6 | 0.0254451 | union emu | 6 | 0.9979382 |
| 90 | member | 7 | 0.0235570 | europe | 7 | 0.9978069 |
| 90 | common | 8 | 0.0223353 | european monetary | 8 | 0.9975888 |
| 90 | eu | 9 | 0.0214467 | monetary union emu | 9 | 0.9975878 |
| 90 | integration | 10 | 0.0165599 | common | 10 | 0.9975454 |
| 90 | political | 11 | 0.0138943 | european | 11 | 0.9975408 |
| 90 | institutional | 12 | 0.0137832 | prosperity | 12 | 0.9965831 |
| 90 | institution | 13 | 0.0133390 | sovereignty | 13 | 0.9964031 |
| 90 | share | 14 | 0.0094517 | european country | 14 | 0.9962318 |
| 90 | complete | 15 | 0.0075636 | political | 15 | 0.9962286 |
5.90.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung | Period_1 | 2011-10-19 | 0.235 | mr trichet, do you believe in destiny? i have used that term on a few occasions – including the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the ecb, when i quoted konrad adenauer. he once said that europe is a community with a common destiny. he also said that “it’s up to us to shape that destiny”, and i believe he was right. you have also talked about a common destiny in connection with the euro and the sovereign debt crisis. is destiny not the opposite of a free political decision on whether or not to pursue a particular form of european integration? that is certainly not the way that i interpret the word “destiny”, and it’s definitely not konrad adenauer’s understanding, either. it’s certainly not a question of predetermination. it relates, instead, to the fundamental importance of the… |
| Mr Issing’s speech entitled ‘Hayek - currency competition and European monetary union’ (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 May 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-06-09 | 0.222 | of money as new opportunities are presented for the banking and financial industries in the euro area as a whole. in the sequencing of events on the road to the political integration of europe, i once had a distinct preference for political union preceding monetary union. as i have argued elsewhere,25 historical experience shows that national territories and monetary territories normally coincide. now, of course, the reality is that, if political union is ever to occur, monetary union will have preceded it. however, with the establishment of the ecb and the introduction of the single currency, intentionally or not, a process towards further political integration has been triggered. although this process is not without risks, it nevertheless provides a golden opportunity for europe to fi… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: European Economic and Monetary Union: a success story | Period_1 | 2001-06-26 | 0.214 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Towards a more integrated Europe - challenges ahead for the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe | Period_1 | 2011-10-24 | 0.210 | president of the republic of poland, president of the european parliament, president of the national bank of poland, ministers, governors, commissioner rehn distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, let me start by thanking my dear friend and colleague, president belka, for inviting me to address such a distinguished audience today. twenty years ago, the dissolution of the soviet union marked one of the most important events in european history – the final stage of the revolutions that began two years earlier in 1989; the end of communism in the countries of central and eastern europe; and the beginning of their transition to democracy and market economies. it is also almost 20 years since the european council met in the city of maastricht in the netherlands to agree on strengthening … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2011-10-06 | 0.205 | an important debate is underway on how to ensure that europe continues to deliver well into the future. important and much needed reforms have been adopted over the past few months. but this is not the end of the road. on the contrary: further steps must be taken on our way to an ever closer economic union. in the short to medium term, it is essential to implement and enhance the newly agreed legislation as far as possible. here, this parliament has a pivotal role. on economic governance, there is no doubt that you will make extensive use of tools such as the “economic dialogue” to support economic integration with the required legitimacy. this will open up the process of fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance and, by enhancing transparency, it should encourage member states to abide by … |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2014-03-04 | 0.269 | creating a more perfect union also requires filling the remaining gaps in the architecture of economic and monetary union. a genuine and comprehensive economic and monetary union as outlined in the four presidents report should still remain our long-term objective. this does not mean pushing integration as far as we can. this is neither economically necessary nor politically realistic. it means aligning economic governance and policies of member states where appropriate to ensure that positive spillovers are enforced while negative externalities are minimised. sharing sovereignty in crucial policy areas is certainly one way to accomplish this. it is not for a central bank to prescribe solutions. this is a political prerogative. but it is my hope both as a central banker and as a europea… |
| Mario Draghi: A central banker’s perspective on European economic convergence | Period_2 | 2012-12-10 | 0.256 |
|
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-06-18 | 0.194 | conclusion the situation in greece reminds us again that the economic and monetary union is an unfinished construction as long as we do not have all tools in place to ensure that all euro area members are economically, fiscally and financially sufficiently resilient. to complete the economic and monetary union, we need a quantum leap towards a stronger, more efficient institutional architecture. as you know, my colleagues and i are currently working on a report that will aim at showing a roadmap for this. we are in the final stages of this process, and i hope you understand that also out of respect for my colleagues, i will not be able to tell you more than what i have already said repeatedly: that we will need to put our institutional framework on a much stronger footing; that we need,… |
| Yves Mersch: Ways towards more dynamic growth | Period_2 | 2015-07-22 | 0.188 | final thoughts the euro area economy is recovering slowly but steadily, thanks in part to our most recent monetary policy measures. these measures were 1. necessary, 2. appropriate and 3. they are effective. i am confident that the economic recovery will continue to make progress. especially in a monetary union, neither individual policy areas nor the different political and decision-making levels should allow themselves to think in isolation from each other. the well-being of each individual member state depends not just on the situation in each country, but also on the rest of the union. the crisis has demonstrated this all too clearly, and policy- makers have reacted. the institutional structure of the monetary union is significantly stronger. in the meantime, however, the enthusiasm… |
| Mario Draghi: How domestic economic strength can prevail over global weakness | Period_2 | 2016-01-26 | 0.183 | agreement on a backstop for the single resolution fund. and a european deposit insurance scheme would signal progress in completing banking union. that brings me to the final area for action: completing our monetary union. the five presidents’ report has laid out a long-term vision for economic and monetary union (emu) and a sequence of steps towards it. now we need to realise the short-term steps that will lend credibility to that long-term vision – first and foremost, by finishing all three pillars of banking union. removing the fragility of emu, by making progress with both the short-term steps and the long- term vision, would bring about a vital boost to confidence in europe. |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.271 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.256 | this is why european countries have increasingly adopted common objectives and embedded them in european law. and this is why we built economic and monetary union (emu). not because a common law and a single economic area are an end in themselves, but because they are a means to an end offering peace, freedom and prosperity. but we should not take the success of the european project for granted. europe emerged from the lessons of history repeated time and again across the centuries. but any progress made has not been free from uncertainty or errors, including in the recent past. so we should always measure the european project against our common objectives, asking ourselves whether it properly addresses our shared aspirations and our collective needs. today, i would like to assess the p… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.204 | after the treaty of rome, the development of the european project contributed to economic growth in the member states for many years: the progressive abolition of customs tariffs favoured specialisation, made it possible to reap the benefits of economies of scale, and stimulated efficiency and competition, with positive effects on employment and welfare. empirical estimates find that without the single market, our real gdp per capita would be around one-fifth lower today.[2] the european economic community subsequently evolved into the european union, becoming an area where europeans work together on a wide set of policies and enjoy freedom and peace. in 1999 we went one step further with emu. this was a logical step to buttress the single market: the euro eliminates exchange rate risk,… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.193 | conclusion i’d like to conclude by reminding the young students that are in this room today that not far from here, in monte cassino, 78 years ago there was war. thousands of italians, many of them civilians, as well as germans, french, poles, brits, americans and many others, lost their lives in the valleys near here, in what was the tragedy of the second world war. today monte cassino has returned to the vocation that the monks chose for it: a place of meditation and study. and we should thank the european project for this. the war on our doorstep reminds us of what we owe european integration: three-quarters of a century of peace, during which we have built our wealth. ukrainians know that well. they are fighting for their country, and for the very freedoms that we hold dear. and the… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.164 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.91 Topic 92: bank; negative; deposit; tltro; facility
5.91.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | bank | 1 | 0.0620772 | tltro | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 92 | negative | 2 | 0.0469030 | deposit facility | 2 | 0.9987732 |
| 92 | deposit | 3 | 0.0336867 | tltros | 3 | 0.9986858 |
| 92 | tltro | 4 | 0.0240927 | facility | 4 | 0.9984222 |
| 92 | facility | 5 | 0.0221348 | negative rate | 5 | 0.9983350 |
| 92 | operation | 6 | 0.0217432 | deposit | 6 | 0.9982458 |
| 92 | lend | 7 | 0.0204705 | tltro iii | 7 | 0.9981579 |
| 92 | measure | 8 | 0.0198831 | deposit facility rate | 8 | 0.9981574 |
| 92 | tltros | 9 | 0.0187083 | facility rate | 9 | 0.9978948 |
| 92 | target | 10 | 0.0185125 | iii | 10 | 0.9978097 |
| 92 | deposit facility | 11 | 0.0182188 | package | 11 | 0.9969323 |
| 92 | package | 12 | 0.0159672 | deposit rate | 12 | 0.9960980 |
| 92 | iii | 13 | 0.0157714 | refinance operation tltro | 13 | 0.9956986 |
| 92 | negative rate | 14 | 0.0140092 | refinance operation tltros | 14 | 0.9955188 |
| 92 | fund | 15 | 0.0136176 | term refinance operation | 15 | 0.9954411 |
5.91.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Towards a more integrated Europe - challenges ahead for the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe | Period_1 | 2011-10-24 | 0.031 | finally, the ecb is also making a key contribution. for example, by providing extensive liquidity provision to parent banks established in the euro area, the subsidiaries of those banks in central and eastern europe are indirectly benefiting from this ample liquidity. ladies and gentlemen, let me draw to a close. i am sure that the three aspects of convergence that i have mentioned will be better understood thanks to the discussions, which will take place during this impressive conference. achieving sustainable convergence requires the conduct of sound economic policies, both before and after adoption of the euro. the present global crisis is demonstrating, once again, to which extent continuous resolute sound macro policies are the best way to improve economic and financial resilience … |
| Lucas Papademos: The effects of globalisation on inflation, liquidity and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2007-06-13 | 0.030 | 17 international monetary fund, 2007. 18 see ecb financial stability review, june 2007; ecb monthly bulletin, july 2007, forthcoming; ferrero et al., 2007; von landesberger, 2007. 19 ferguson et al. 20 over the same horizon, the net foreign liability position of the euro area only increased from 6.5% to 10% of gdp. 21 see, for example, the description of the link between m&a activity and asset prices in pepper, 2006. |
| Mr Erçel discusses the monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 1999-01-08 | 0.028 | mr erçel discusses the monetary policy of the european central bank opening speech by the governor of the central bank of the republic of turkey, mr gazi erçel, at the economic research foundation, istanbul. 18/12/98 european economic and monetary union (emu) will come to life at the beginning of next year. the european central bank (ecb) will commence operations, and the euro will become an official reserve currency. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Further integrating euro area economies ¿ some reflections | Period_1 | 2006-07-14 | 0.028 | we also need to monitor and fully understand the factors behind the persistence of diversities among euro area countries: this persistence is in some cases fully justified. in other cases it has to be corrected in order to avoid the accumulation of differences over time. this is particularly true as regards the cost competitiveness indicators. euro area policy-makers need to discuss the underlying factors and the necessary corrective measures in the appropriate institutional fora: this should ensure a smooth functioning of the euro area in the coming years. in such a rapidly changing world, with many simultaneous developments brought about by the progress of science and technology, the globalisation process and the profound changes in europe – which have been the subject of my reflectio… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2011-07-04 | 0.025 | it is also for this reason that the ongoing negotiations on the governance package should produce an ambitious outcome. i have been emphasising time and again why we are very much in agreement with the european parliament on this – the need for a quantum leap in economic governance through the currently discussed legislative package. at this stage, i would like to recall two points: first, we should not be content with a stronger stability and growth pact only at the later stages of an excessive deficit procedure. we need to halt any fiscal excesses early on and correct them. the obvious way is a higher degree of automaticity early on in the procedures, that is, more reverse qualified majority voting in the preventive arm of the pact; and therefore the prospect of more timely sanc… |
| Luis de Guindos: Measures to support monetary policy transmission through banks | Period_2 | 2019-09-25 | 0.431 | we believe that these changes represent a significant easing of banks’ medium-term funding conditions, which in turn should contribute to improving the lending conditions banks offer to the real economy. the more accommodative pricing should strengthen support for bank funding, so that banks continue to offer loans to firms and households on favourable terms. the extended maturity of tltro iii will be better aligned with bank-based financing of investment projects, thereby further supporting banks’ financing to the real economy. finally, in view of the lengthened maturity, the option to voluntarily repay the amounts borrowed before maturity at a quarterly frequency will provide greater flexibility for banks’ funding plans. the two-tier system let me now turn to the second measure. banks… |
| Philip R Lane: Low inflation - macroeconomic risks and the monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.385 | nonetheless, the governing council closely monitors the risk that the impact of negative rates on bank profitability may impair the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. in order to reinforce the bank-based transmission of monetary policy, the governing council decided in september last year to exempt part of the bank holdings of excess liquidity with the eurosystem from the negative deposit rate. the interest rate on such holdings is now tiered: excess liquidity holdings up to six times the minimum reserve holding are not charged the negative deposit facility rate of -0.5 percent. the annual gross savings for banks from the two-tier system are estimated to amount to up to €4 billion in 2020 compared with the counterfactual projection if the system had not been introduced… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.355 | nonetheless, the governing council is closely monitoring the risk that the impact of negative rates on bank profitability may impair the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. moreover, the ecb decided last september to introduce a two-tier system for remunerating excess liquidity holdings, with the aim of supporting the bank-based transmission of monetary policy. the interest rate on such holdings is now tiered, with excess liquidity holdings up to six times the minimum reserve requirements receiving zero interest and holdings beyond that level remunerated at the deposit facility rate of -0.5 percent. |
| Luis de Guindos: Measures to support monetary policy transmission through banks | Period_2 | 2019-09-25 | 0.297 | luis de guindos: measures to support monetary policy transmission through banks welcome address by mr luis de guindos, vice-president of the european central bank, to the money market contact group, frankfurt am main, 24 september 2019. * * * in its most recent policy meeting, the ecb’s governing council decided on a comprehensive easing package because the downward revisions in the projected inflation path warranted a vigorous policy response. the easing package comprised five measures: lowering the deposit facility rate, strengthening the forward guidance on the likely path of policy rates, restarting the net asset purchases within the asset purchase programme, changing the terms of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (tltro iii) and introducing a two-tier … |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.273 | reflections on monetary policy page 15 of 18 complementing the tltro iii operations, the two-tier system for reserve remuneration – which will take effect on 30 october 2019 – supports the bank-based transmission mechanism, as it will mitigate the adverse side effects of negative interest rates on banks. this system has been calibrated to strike a balance between, on the one hand, offsetting the direct cost of negative interest rates on bank profitability, thereby helping to sustain the pass-through of low policy rates to bank lending rates, and on the other, preserving the positive contribution of negative rates to the accommodative stance of monetary policy and the continued sustained convergence of inflation to our aim. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.180 | the calibration of the tltro iii programme in response to the pandemic has provided significant monetary accommodation in a manner that is designed to protect credit supply. in particular, an important innovation was to set the minimum borrowing rate at 50 basis points below the average interest rate on the deposit facility. this lowered funding costs for bank-intermediated credit, even without a generalised reduction in the main traditional policy rates. the remarkable expansion in the scale of tltro iii operations, which have increased by about €2.2 trillion during the pandemic, is visible in chart 1. ecb estimates indicate that tltro iii liquidity can be expected to boost loan volumes considerably, to the tune of four percentage points cumulatively by 2022, and also contributed to a … |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.178 | we also changed the terms and conditions of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations. the tltro iii programme addressed the need for significant stimulus during the pandemic, strengthening the transmission of rates to the economy via banks. but now the environment has changed completely – and we need to ensure that the lower cost of tltro funding does not impede monetary transmission when policy needs to be normalised. recalibrating the programme’s conditions ensures consistency with the broader monetary policy normalisation process. |
| Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition | Period_3 | 2022-11-04 | 0.171 | to support the timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target, our monetary policy aims to reduce support for demand and to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored at our target. last week we decided to raise the three key ecb interest rates by 75 basis points – the third major rate hike in a row – and we expect to raise interest rates further. we also changed the terms and conditions of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (tltro iii) to ensure that its calibration is consistent with the broader monetary policy normalisation process and to reinforce the transmission of our policy rate increases to bank lending conditions. finally, we decided to set the remuneration of minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the 1/4 bis - central … |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.132 | measures, including asset purchase programmes contribute to a reduction in income inequality through positive employment and wage effects, while their implications for wealth inequality can be mixed, as asset holdings tend to exhibit heterogeneity.[10] for corporates, the protection of favourable financing conditions likely contributed to the survival of many firms that would otherwise have been forced to shut down towing to the catastrophic loss of revenues during the pandemic. low bond rates and banking rates, together with supportive credit terms and conditions, played a direct role in underpinning the survival of many firms. yet more powerful was the indirect role by which favourable financing conditions enabled large-scale fiscal borrowing that in turn enabled governments to provid… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.132 | requires – when the economy is in the proximity of the lower bound – especially forceful or persistent monetary policy measures to avoid negative deviations from the inflation target becoming entrenched. monetary policy was already accommodative before the pandemic shock. the prospect of persistent below-target inflation had resulted in a further easing of the monetary stance in september 2019: the deposit facility rate had been lowered to minus 0.5 per cent and net asset purchases were resumed at a rate of €20 billion per month under the ecb’s baseline asset purchase programme (app). these measures were reinforced by forward guidance that tied future monetary policy decisions to the inflation outlook and developments in underlying inflation dynamics. in addition, credit supply was supp… |
The most representative speeches:
5.92 Topic 93: short; short term; interest; interest rate; term interest
5.92.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | short | 1 | 0.1618459 | term interest | 1 | 0.9995619 |
| 93 | short term | 2 | 0.1190408 | term interest rate | 2 | 0.9995617 |
| 93 | interest | 3 | 0.0966369 | short term | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 93 | interest rate | 4 | 0.0867492 | short | 4 | 0.9994741 |
| 93 | term interest | 5 | 0.0579621 | short term interest | 5 | 0.9992990 |
| 93 | term interest rate | 6 | 0.0575866 | term rate | 6 | 0.9990362 |
| 93 | short term interest | 7 | 0.0277983 | short term rate | 7 | 0.9989484 |
| 93 | term rate | 8 | 0.0217906 | interest rate | 8 | 0.9986852 |
| 93 | influence | 9 | 0.0171596 | interest | 9 | 0.9985971 |
| 93 | short term rate | 10 | 0.0130293 | influence | 10 | 0.9985106 |
| 93 | level | 11 | 0.0112770 | future short | 11 | 0.9968862 |
| 93 | good | 12 | 0.0112770 | extent | 12 | 0.9952638 |
| 93 | result | 13 | 0.0100254 | usual | 13 | 0.9943868 |
| 93 | future | 14 | 0.0093996 | term policy | 14 | 0.9943309 |
| 93 | extent | 15 | 0.0075222 | obvious | 15 | 0.9941252 |
5.92.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Macro-prudential supervision and monetary policy - linkages and demarcation lines | Period_1 | 2011-05-24 | 0.223 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Interview with Financial Times and Financial Times Deutschland | Period_1 | 2005-12-21 | 0.190 | in principle, a tightening of monetary policy – global and domestic - would be expected to contain aggregate demand growth. the extent, however, of this effect depends on the initial conditions and on the influence of a variety of other factors. in the us, despite the substantial increase in interest rates since the middle of 2004 which followed a fairly long period of low interest rates, economic growth has remained robust because of the cumulative impact of the previous monetary accommodation and of other factors that have at least partly counterbalanced the effects of higher interest rates. an important channel through which monetary policy influences the economy is through its effects on long-term interest rates. if long-term interest rates remain at a low level – as a result of fav… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Macro-prudential supervision and monetary policy - linkages and demarcation lines | Period_1 | 2011-05-24 | 0.138 | finance and the macro-economy interact. in these models, short-term monetary policy instruments seem to be more powerful than previously thought – and therefore, more disruptive if misused. but why would short-term rates be important in their own right? the bulk of finance for financial institutions, whether banks, broker-dealers, the so-called shadow banking system or hedge funds, is very much short-term. for example, broker-dealers fund themselves primarily in the repo market, mainly at overnight maturities, while shadow banks fund themselves in the commercial paper market and the majority of commercial banks rely on retail finance – chequing and savings deposits – which usually consists of sight or short- maturity instruments. wholesale funding for commercial banks is, typically, ver… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial crisis? | Period_1 | 2010-04-13 | 0.136 | similar institutions will adopt a similar risk-taking strategy. herding will emerge. risk management behaviour will become more correlated across financial intermediaries. risk will rise not only at the individual bank level, but also across the system as a whole. 16 moreover, since the financial sector is now exposed to greater liquidity risk as a result of such behaviour, central banks are more likely to be called upon to intervene in the future. and the magnitude of such interventions will need to increase if they are to be effective. a “ratcheting-up” of risk within the banking sector can occur over time, creating increasing vulnerability. 17 low interest rates also encourage a higher level of leverage. because financial intermediaries – whether banks, broker-dealers, shadow banks, … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy and private expectations | Period_1 | 2005-02-28 | 0.121 | union. this interest rate move was a strong sign of determination. the policy message was reinforced through a consistent communication campaign which the central banks concerned, together with the european monetary institute, launched in the last few months of the year to explain the meaning of their action. the essence of the message was the following. the assumption made by some observers and by part of the market literature, according to which the entry interest rates in the euro on 1 january 1999 would be some kind of average of the interest rates of the composing currencies was totally wrong. on the contrary, the very construction of the euro was based on total continuity with the most credible national currencies. the concept of the transition was based upon “benchmarking”, namel… |
| Peter Praet: Forward guidance and the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2013-08-07 | 0.232 | this statement, in particular the formulation “for an extended period of time”, marks a change in the ecb’s communication of monetary policy. it is a form of forward guidance, a communication instrument by which central banks convey their monetary policy orientation going forward, conditional on their assessment of the economic outlook. the standard view is that monetary policy influences the economy and, ultimately, price setting primarily by affecting interest rates at intermediate and medium-term maturities. indeed, longer-term interest rates determine the borrowing conditions that are most relevant for a large component of aggregate spending: first and foremost, durable consumption and investment. the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates suggests that longer-t… |
| Peter Praet: Speech on the occasion of the “Annual Danish Top Executive Summit 2013” | Period_2 | 2013-01-30 | 0.213 | central bank’s mandate exemplifies the notion of courage. i am very sceptical whether increasing the numerical definition of price stability helps in either of these dimensions. engaging in communication regarding the future path of policy rates let me now turn to the second example of an innovative proposal for monetary policy that i would like to discuss today. unlike the previous proposal, this one does not relate to the objective of the central bank. instead, it focuses on how the central bank can actually achieve its assigned objective, when the chances that the objective will be hit diminish. as i already mentioned, central banks typically conduct monetary policy by steering nominal short-term interest rates. these are the rates over which they can exert significant influence thro… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.192 | as central banks began in the 80s to abandon technical monetarism and adopt interest rates as the main policy instrument to influence economic and financial conditions, their monetary base has adjusted towards the level consistent with banks’ demand for reserves, given the current short‐term interest rate. the central bank balance sheet, which is to a large extent determined by bank reserves in the perspective of the traditional transmission channels, cannot therefore be used as a monetary policy instrument separate from the short‐term interest rate. 29 for example, eggertsson and mehrotra (2014), caballero, farhi and gourinchas (2015) and eggertsson, mehrotra, singh and summers (2016). 30 see, for instance, golob (1994). |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy measures | Period_2 | 2017-10-03 | 0.178 | indications coming from models and past empirical regularities with its own judgement. in engaging in this layer of judgemental deliberations, our intent is to come to a firm assessment of the balance between the likely efficacy of our measures and their potential costs in term of financial distortions. how do our main policy instruments work? ensuring an appropriate interest rate environment throughout the yield curve is instrumental in fostering the financing conditions that are most conducive to our objective. a central bank can seek to influence the level and shape of the yield curve by acting on two components of the long- term interest rates: the expectations component and the term premium. the expectations component reflects market expectations of the future path of the policy-co… |
| Benoît Cœuré: What yield curves are telling us | Period_2 | 2018-02-01 | 0.156 | and a model-based breakdown of the yield into its two main components: the average of the current and expected future short-term interest rates over the maturity of the bond and the term premium. all series are shown as cumulative changes since the start of last year. two facts can be drawn from this chart. the first is that the recent marked flattening of the curve reflects what markets call a “bear flattening” – that is, short-term rates have been rising faster than long-term rates. this is evident from the fact that the ten-year yield – the blue solid line – today is about the same as it was a year ago. short-term interest rates, meanwhile, have risen by around 90 basis points. at face value, this would suggest that the repricing of interest rate expectations at the short end of the … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.092 | it is therefore not surprising that uncertainty around the future path of short-term interest rates as priced by investors has increased over the past few weeks (slide 12). such a rise in uncertainty and risk premia is to be expected when the market considers it increasingly likely that inflation will meet the conditions for lift-off, without putting into question the credibility of our forward guidance. |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.088 | moreover, there has been a widening of the spread between short-term government bill rates and swaps with the same maturity (chart 1). this can be mainly attributed to demand/supply imbalances in the market for short-term government bills, which is partially driven by the level of excess liquidity and increased demand for short-term high-quality assets. this increased demand is also motivated by the current interest rate uncertainty and high level of volatility. these demand/supply imbalances of high- quality collateral with short-term maturities can also be observed in other jurisdictions of major central banks for similar reasons.[4] the increase of the dfr by 75 basis points to 0.75 per cent that we decided last week will only become effective with the start of the new maintenance pe… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right sequence | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.087 | the experience of the past few years demonstrates, for example, that balance sheet policies have a significantly larger impact on house prices than changes in short-term policy rates, thereby contributing to the measurable rise in residential real estate prices (slide 9).6 similarly, years of balance sheet expansion have caused the bond free float in some economies to decline to very low levels (slide 10, left-hand chart). as such, an end to net asset purchases enhances the availability of safe assets that the market requires to function well (slide 10, right- hand chart).7 ending net asset purchases when inflation is robustly converging to our target also credibly underlines that our actions are solely guided by our mandate, refuting concerns about fiscal dominance. finally, in the cur… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.080 | at its february meeting the governing council will announce the detailed parameters for reducing the app holdings. the governing council will regularly reassess the pace of the app portfolio reduction to ensure it remains consistent with the overall monetary policy strategy and stance, to preserve market functioning, and to maintain firm control over short-term money market conditions. by the end of 2023, we will also review our operational framework for steering short-term interest rates, which will provide information regarding the endpoint of the balance sheet normalisation process. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.075 | : money market rate (€str) and dfr ecb. the latest observation is for 30 september 2022. the risk-free curve the €str forward curve, which reflects the market pricing of the future path of short-term interest rates, has shifted up since december 2021. at the time of the december meeting, the €str forward curve signalled no material expectations of a rate hike throughout 2022 (chart 9), which was also reflected in the survey of monetary analysts (sma) available at the time. in line with the evolving inflation outlook and shifts in the monetary policy stance, rate expectations had already moved up sizeably by the time of our first rate hike in july, and have moved up further since.[33] as the €str curve has shifted upwards, a noticeable gap between the number of hikes reflected in market … |
The most representative speeches:
5.93 Topic 94: financial; market; integration; financial integration; cross
5.93.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | financial | 1 | 0.0923503 | financial integration | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 94 | market | 2 | 0.0713685 | integration | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 94 | integration | 3 | 0.0641718 | border | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 94 | financial integration | 4 | 0.0275804 | cross border | 4 | 0.9992990 |
| 94 | cross | 5 | 0.0267695 | cross | 5 | 0.9982467 |
| 94 | border | 6 | 0.0256545 | european financial | 6 | 0.9973692 |
| 94 | cross border | 7 | 0.0205865 | payment | 7 | 0.9966670 |
| 94 | increase | 8 | 0.0152143 | integrate | 8 | 0.9964950 |
| 94 | payment | 9 | 0.0138966 | financial service | 9 | 0.9963565 |
| 94 | financial market | 10 | 0.0132885 | risk share | 10 | 0.9963202 |
| 94 | share | 11 | 0.0119708 | smooth | 11 | 0.9957036 |
| 94 | service | 12 | 0.0116667 | capital market | 12 | 0.9952675 |
| 94 | process | 13 | 0.0113626 | infrastructure | 13 | 0.9951369 |
| 94 | european | 14 | 0.0110585 | retail | 14 | 0.9950061 |
| 94 | smooth | 15 | 0.0104503 | european financial integration | 15 | 0.9947666 |
5.93.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European financial integration and the management of inflation expectations by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2005-04-21 | 0.422 | the link between financial integration and economic growth is typically derived by first establishing the link between financial development and economic growth, and then the link between financial integration and financial development. if we were to describe it with the picture of a chain reaction, the sequence would be: financial integration positively impacts on financial development that in turn has a positive impact on economic growth. but let us look at each individual element separately. there is strong evidence to suggest that financial development, i.e. the level at which the financial system fulfils its respective functions, which i mentioned earlier, is positively linked with economic growth.3 this link is established via two main channels: financial development can lead to a… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European financial integration and the management of inflation expectations by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2005-04-21 | 0.418 | 2.2.2 financial institutions and the regulatory and supervisory framework given its pivotal role in channelling funds into the eu economy, a well-integrated banking sector is a prerequisite for achieving a truly single financial market. i would like to describe the degree of integration in the euro area banking sector along three dimensions: first, cross-border consolidation or ownership; second, magnitude of cross-border activities; and, third, cross-border competition (i.e. the price component), where i would like to look at aspects of retail banking. as regards the integration in ownership of euro area banks, banking consolidation has mainly taken place at the domestic level, and it witnessed peaks in the late 1990s when around 80% of all m&as in the eu banking sector involved domest… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The process of economic, monetary and financial integration in Europe | Period_1 | 2006-12-04 | 0.409 | result of domestic mergers; only in the last couple of years have cross-border banking mergers started to take place. in this respect, a number of euro area banks have considerably expanded their interests outside the euro area. however, in general, cross-border activity within the euro area has remained relatively limited, even though it is gaining in importance. this trend is expected to continue, thereby increasing the level of competition and efficiency in the euro area financial system. but further work is needed in order to achieve the goal of a single market in financial services. to this end, the ecb and the eurosystem are actively involved in several initiatives that will help foster financial integration, five of which i would like to highlight. first, the launch of target2 – … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Two successes of the euro - the single monetary policy and European financial integration | Period_1 | 2006-05-19 | 0.397 | as a second measure of the euro’s success in fostering financial integration, i would like to mention the work of “the institutions behind the euro”, namely the ecb and the whole eurosystem, which provide numerous contributions to european financial integration. overall, we are of the view that financial integration is first and foremost a market-driven process. in addition to this, we see it as a basic task of public authorities to create a framework that is conducive to fostering financial integration. in this respect, the ecb has defined four kinds of activity with which the ecb and the eurosystem contribute to this process: (1) we try to enhance knowledge and raise awareness of the state of and need for european financial integration, and we measure the progress made – the most obvi… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: European financial integration and the management of inflation expectations by the European Central Bank | Period_1 | 2005-04-21 | 0.390 | 2.1 why financial integration should be pursued as we all know, financial systems - composed of financial institutions, markets and the infrastructure - serve some basic purposes: among other things, to trade, hedge, diversify and pool risk, to allocate resources and to mobilise savings. these functions determine the economic benefits that can be derived from financial integration. two widely accepted economic benefits of financial integration are: the better sharing and diversification of risk and the potential for higher economic growth. let me explain this in more detail. financial integration increases the opportunities to share risk and smooth consumption over time. the increase in the available set of financial instruments resulting from financial integration, as well as the incre… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Heterogeneity and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-04-02 | 0.288 | let me take each aspect in turn, starting with financial integration. european capital markets indeed appeared to be becoming more integrated, and hence provided for increased cross-border risk-sharing, before 2008. you can see this clearly on my next slide, which shows a composite indicator of euro area financial integration produced by the ecb. but since the crisis broke, integration has reversed. it currently stands at 0.2 on a scale where zero represents full fragmentation. as a result, cross-border risk-sharing in the euro area is almost non-existent. on my next slide you can see that, currently, around 80% of a country-specific output shock remains unsmoothed, while in the united states it is at most 40% for a state-specific shock.4 3 / 14 |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the European recovery | Period_2 | 2015-06-02 | 0.259 | others are booming. it is understood that the high degree of effective risk-sharing in the u.s. is essential in making it a successful monetary union. 3 there are three main mechanisms whereby risk-sharing can take place between member states in an economic area. first, countries can share risk via cross-ownership of productive assets, a mechanism facilitated by developed capital markets. second, a system of taxes and transfers can serve as a vehicle for further income smoothing. third, member states can smooth consumption by adjusting their asset portfolios, for example, by lending and borrowing in international credit markets. the u.s. have traditionally been characterised by a very high degree of income and consumption smoothing across states that has only been increasing over time. … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2014 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-04-23 | 0.187 | are well allocated and used productively. in this regard, the capital markets union agenda can also make an important contribution. a capital markets union has great potential – but only if pursued with ambition the commission intends to establish the main building blocks of a capital markets union (cmu) in the current legislative period. from our perspective, such a project, if comprehensive and well designed, could indeed bring significant benefits to the eu. cmu is a means of enhancing the integration of capital markets and making that integration more robust. integrated capital markets can strengthen financial stability by increasing private risk sharing, thereby facilitating the absorption of shocks throughout the eu. at the same time, well-functioning capital markets facilitate th… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Effectiveness of Monetary Union and the Capital Markets Union | Period_2 | 2017-04-10 | 0.181 | risk-sharing via cross-border ownership of assets increased substantially following the introduction of the euro, smoothing between 30% and 40% of country-specific shocks to gdp by the mid-2000s. but the contribution of capital markets declined substantially during the financial and especially during the sovereign debt crisis. the contribution of credit markets has been lower, and it even became negative during the financial crisis when european banking sector was particularly hit. in the absence of a european supra-national system of taxes and transfers, it is more pressing than ever to boost europe’s risk-sharing potential through financial market mechanisms. the risk-sharing benefits of integrated financial markets could in principle be large. another major benefit of the cmu is the … |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the European recovery | Period_2 | 2015-06-02 | 0.157 | they are active in the market. this level-playing field would contribute to stimulate cross- border risk-taking between eu member states. a final point to underline is that despite other positive effects stemming from greater financial diversification and market-based finance, more financial integration can also entail financial stability risks. it can exacerbate the size and speed of contagion. in addition, the “push” towards market-based financing may lead to the build-up of risks in this part of the economy, typically less regulated and lacking information. this brings me back to the importance of an effective macro-prudential supervision and regulation, i.e. one that considers all systemically important financial entities and activities. in order to make cmu a success with stronger … |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.104 | as regards the digital economy, the ecb will continue to support and contribute to the g20 initiative to make international payments faster, cheaper, safer and more inclusive. this requires improvements in various areas, including the interoperability of payment systems and exchanging data across borders. and several legal issues need to be resolved, such as aligning cross-border regulatory, supervisory and oversight frameworks. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.085 | spillovers the deeply integrated nature of the global economy implies that our analysis needs to incorporate international monetary policy spillovers. for instance, changes in the interest rate locally affects domestic consumption and investment, which in turn affects the demand for imports from trading partners, and hence output abroad (“demand channel”). via the financial channel, changes in the interest rates of major central banks can propagate across borders via asset price spillovers to bond yields, corporate earnings expectations and financial risk premia. since the bulk of cross-border capital flows are denominated in us dollar, as the us dollar plays a dominant role, and as us monetary policy is a key driver of the global financial cycle, us interest rate changes have more pron… |
| Luis de Guindos: Presentation of the European Central Bank annual report 2021 | Period_3 | 2022-05-04 | 0.072 | 2 see feedback on the input provided by the european parliament as part of its resolution on the ecb annual report 2020. 3 see ecb (2022), “financial integration and structure in the euro area”, april. 4 see bongini, p., ferrando, a., rossi, e. and rossolini, m. (2021), “sme access to market-based finance across eurozone countries”, small business economics, vol. 56, pp. 1667-1697; and hsu, p., tian, x. and xu, y. (2014), “financial development and innovation: cross-country evidence”, journal of financial economics, vol. 112, no 1, pp. 116-135. 4/4 |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.068 |
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| Luis de Guindos: Presentation of the European Central Bank annual report 2021 | Period_3 | 2022-05-04 | 0.064 | assets. commodity markets have been the main transmission channel for stress up to now. elevated commodity prices increase financial stability concerns associated with high inflation and low growth. furthermore, the extreme volatility of prices has led to some stress in commodity derivatives markets, although there has been no major incident so far. financial institutions have limited net exposures on commodity derivatives and banks acting as clearing members are generally safeguarded by robust credit-risk management frameworks. bigger net exposures are held by energy producers and suppliers, commodity traders, as well as energy-dependent firms who use commodity derivatives to hedge their core business risk. the significant drop in outstanding contracts suggests that these entities migh… |
The most representative speeches:
5.94 Topic 95: balance; sheet; balance sheet; bank; credit
5.94.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | balance | 1 | 0.1399586 | sheet | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 95 | sheet | 2 | 0.1050766 | balance sheet | 2 | 0.9996496 |
| 95 | balance sheet | 3 | 0.1017413 | bank balance | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 95 | bank | 4 | 0.0776992 | balance | 4 | 0.9994741 |
| 95 | credit | 5 | 0.0361466 | bank balance sheet | 5 | 0.9992114 |
| 95 | bank balance | 6 | 0.0214156 | repair | 6 | 0.9980725 |
| 95 | bank balance sheet | 7 | 0.0207207 | ecb balance | 7 | 0.9980710 |
| 95 | assessment | 8 | 0.0193310 | ecb balance sheet | 8 | 0.9978519 |
| 95 | increase | 9 | 0.0123824 | comprehensive assessment | 9 | 0.9974154 |
| 95 | size | 10 | 0.0122434 | deleveraging | 10 | 0.9969773 |
| 95 | measure | 11 | 0.0097419 | central bank balance | 11 | 0.9969308 |
| 95 | result | 12 | 0.0091860 | size | 12 | 0.9968435 |
| 95 | repair | 13 | 0.0087691 | constraint | 13 | 0.9967574 |
| 95 | constraint | 14 | 0.0082132 | credit | 14 | 0.9966638 |
| 95 | comprehensive | 15 | 0.0080743 | comprehensive | 15 | 0.9964944 |
5.94.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Issues paper for the conference “The financial crisis and its consequences for the world economy” | Period_1 | 2008-12-16 | 0.126 | the o&d business model of financial intermediation should not disappear but it should become more transparent. it should also be considered whether the originator should always keep a certain percentage of an offloaded credit package on the own balance sheet. in order to increase the capital buffers that banks need to hold with regard to illiquid structured products and off-balance sheet activities, the capital adequacy provisions within the basel ii framework should be also enhanced in these areas. |
| Jean Claude-Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-12-28 | 0.119 | financial stability i would now like to share with you our assessment of the financial stability situation, as described in the recent financial stability review. i will discuss briefly the role of financial institutions and supervisory authorities in coping with the present financial market correction. with financial systems undergoing a process of de-leveraging and re-intermediation, uncertainty surrounding the financial stability outlook for the euro area has heightened and may persist until it becomes clearer how the potential balance sheet effects of the turbulence will be spread across individual financial institutions. clarity is also needed concerning liquidity commitments to off-balance sheet vehicles, and the magnitude of assets that may be re-intermediated back onto the balan… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.103 | additional measures to support the asset side of banks’ balance sheets it may be necessary, however, in order to safeguard banking sector stability and restore an adequate flow of credit to the economy,, that these measures, which were aimed at supporting the liability side of banks’ balance sheets be complemented in certain cases by additional measures designed to support the asset side. various approaches have been considered, ranging notably from (i) asset removal schemes involving the removal of the “problem” assets from the balance sheets, through direct government purchases or by transferring them to “bad banks” or asset management vehicles; to (ii) asset insurance schemes that limit the valuation losses of impaired assets by invoking a government guarantee while keeping them on t… |
| Lucas Papademos: Presentation of the ECB’s Annual Report 2008 to the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-04-23 | 0.087 | financial stability and supervision let me now focus on the financial sector and issues related to its regulation and supervision. the synchronised deceleration in activity in all economies has added to the stresses on the financial system in europe and the euro area. the weakening of economic activity has impaired the quality of bank loans, which has adversely affected banks’ capital positions. as financial institutions continue to deleverage their balance sheets, they reduce their securities holdings and tighten the credit standards applied to new loans. this feeds back to the real economy and in turn constrains the ability of the private sector to service its debts. therefore, there are emerging signs of a negative feedback loop between the real economy and the banking sector. initia… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Overview of recent euro area developments and the effects of globalisation on prices and real estate | Period_1 | 2008-01-11 | 0.083 | financial stability i would now like to share with you our assessment of the financial stability situation, as described in the recent financial stability review. i will discuss briefly the role of financial institutions and supervisory authorities in coping with the present financial market correction. with financial systems undergoing a process of de-leveraging and re-intermediation, uncertainty surrounding the financial stability outlook for the euro area has heightened and may persist until it becomes clear how the potential balance sheet effects of the turbulence will be spread across individual financial institutions. clarity is also needed concerning liquidity commitments to off-balance sheet vehicles, and the magnitude of assets that may be |
| Peter Praet: Current issues of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2014-07-04 | 0.296 | does such ample provision of liquidity pose risks to financial stability? that being said, monetary policy needs to be aware of the potential implications that a protracted period of monetary accommodation may have for financial stability. there are two major risks: first, postponement in bank balance sheet repair; and second, bubbles in asset prices. the first risk is that cheap funding allows banks to back-load the deleveraging of their balance sheets. after a financial crisis, banks have to undergo a thorough clean-up. otherwise, they may continue to roll over legacy loans, thus restricting the resources available for new lending in support of the real economy – so-called “ever-greening”.3 this risk is being countered through the ecb’s on-going comprehensive assessment of banks’ bala… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in De Tijd and L’Echo | Period_2 | 2014-10-28 | 0.253 | what is your view of the new belgian government’s plans? now that i have a european mandate, i am, in a manner of speaking, no longer a belgian. in theory, i can take a neutral standpoint. but nobody will believe that i’m no longer a belgian. i still read belgian newspapers and also take a professional interest in belgium. i am a displaced european. i look at belgium as i would at any other country. belgium has used the small fiscal margin cautiously. just as for other countries, it’s good to announce all reforms at the start of the cabinet term and then to implement them properly. what is your general assessment of the results? are they better or worse than you expected? given that banks since july 2013, in the run-up to the publication of the results of the comprehensive assessment, h… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in a prolonged period of low inflation | Period_2 | 2014-05-26 | 0.252 | calibrating the policy response what is the right policy response to these developments? essentially, we are confronting three issues that might warrant a response. first, the common effect of exogenous factors, including the exchange rate, on euro area inflation. second, the asymmetric effect of endogenous developments, such as tight access to credit for parts and sectors of the euro area. and third, the risk that those effects combine to generate a more persistent regime of excessively low inflation. let me elaborate on those three issues. first, to the extent that developments in the exchange rate, money or capital markets result in an unwarranted tightening of monetary and financial conditions, this would require adjustment of our conventional instruments, so as to secure the degree… |
| Mario Draghi: Bank restructuring and the economic recovery | Period_2 | 2014-03-14 | 0.244 | conclusion ladies and gentlemen, i can summarise what i said tonight in a few words: the comprehensive assessment of bank balance sheets, which we initiated last year, is a bank-level supervisory exercise ahead of the start of the operations of the single supervisory mechanism. but it also has significant macroeconomic consequences and, as such, forms an integral part of the strategy for the recovery of the euro area. in fact, just the prospect of the comprehensive assessment has already caused banks to raise new capital and to shed non-core or non-profitable exposures. this is very welcome: corrective action does not need to wait until the end of our comprehensive assessment. it is to everybody’s benefit that it takes place pre-emptively. in this way, i believe that we are already star… |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy and balance sheet adjustment | Period_2 | 2014-05-28 | 0.223 | balance sheet restructuring previous crises have shown that prompt and decisive balance sheet repair after a period of excessive credit growth is the best way to restore sustainable growth. 1 post-recession growth may not even be significantly weaker than normal if the overleveraged financial sector aggressively cuts back excess credit in the recovery phase. 2 like balance sheet imbalances, structural impediments to growth and to an efficient allocation of resources are generally very relevant for the conduct of monetary policy and need to be tackled decisively. trying to stimulate growth through standard aggregate demand policies may be ineffective and, under certain circumstances, even counterproductive in balance sheet recessions, when structural breaks on potential growth predominat… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.155 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.154 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.134 | but the natural rate of interest is particularly hard to estimate at the moment, not least because the pandemic has scrambled all the typical models used to calculate it. all we can say with confidence is that the natural rate of interest has declined significantly compared with the period before the global financial crisis and that estimates are imprecise and widely dispersed. as such, they cannot serve as an actual guide for policy. the picture is further clouded when it comes to the “normal” size and composition of the central bank’s balance sheet. it is unlikely that the prevailing size and composition prior to the global financial crisis are still valid benchmarks – we can surmise that the optimal balance sheet is different in size and composition today. but there has so far been l… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.094 | normal does not mean theoretical second, the normalisation process should not be assessed against unobservable reference points, such as the natural (or neutral) rate of interest[3] and some optimal or “normal” size and composition of the central bank’s balance sheet in the long run. these concepts are only vague guideposts at the best of times, and they are particularly fraught with uncertainty in the current environment. before the pandemic, the real natural rate of interest for the euro area was estimated to range from just over 0% to less than -2%, depending on the model used.[4] in fact, proxies of real rates are already at the higher end of that range – for instance, the one-year forward real rate nine years ahead [5] recently increased significantly, reaching 0%. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right sequence | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.093 | the experience of the past few years demonstrates, for example, that balance sheet policies have a significantly larger impact on house prices than changes in short-term policy rates, thereby contributing to the measurable rise in residential real estate prices (slide 9).6 similarly, years of balance sheet expansion have caused the bond free float in some economies to decline to very low levels (slide 10, left-hand chart). as such, an end to net asset purchases enhances the availability of safe assets that the market requires to function well (slide 10, right- hand chart).7 ending net asset purchases when inflation is robustly converging to our target also credibly underlines that our actions are solely guided by our mandate, refuting concerns about fiscal dominance. finally, in the cur… |
The most representative speeches:
5.95 Topic 96: transmission; mechanism; channel; economy; transmission mechanism
5.95.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | transmission | 1 | 0.1346529 | transmission mechanism | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 96 | mechanism | 2 | 0.0593531 | transmission | 2 | 0.9995617 |
| 96 | channel | 3 | 0.0593531 | policy transmission | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 96 | economy | 4 | 0.0428472 | monetary policy transmission | 4 | 0.9992990 |
| 96 | transmission mechanism | 5 | 0.0315250 | mechanism | 5 | 0.9987286 |
| 96 | policy transmission | 6 | 0.0298880 | impulse | 6 | 0.9986858 |
| 96 | monetary policy transmission | 7 | 0.0270233 | channel | 7 | 0.9986408 |
| 96 | financial | 8 | 0.0252500 | monetary transmission | 8 | 0.9983780 |
| 96 | affect | 9 | 0.0229310 | policy transmission mechanism | 9 | 0.9981589 |
| 96 | impulse | 10 | 0.0147462 | transmit | 10 | 0.9980725 |
| 96 | transmit | 11 | 0.0142006 | transmission channel | 11 | 0.9980282 |
| 96 | condition | 12 | 0.0132457 | policy impulse | 12 | 0.9973701 |
| 96 | effectiveness | 13 | 0.0124272 | impair | 13 | 0.9969336 |
| 96 | real | 14 | 0.0118815 | monetary policy impulse | 14 | 0.9969314 |
| 96 | time | 15 | 0.0110631 | effectiveness | 15 | 0.9966692 |
5.95.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-03-22 | 0.173 | monetary policy transmission in the euro area and the us in my remarks today i would also like to discuss differences and similarities in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area and the us. optimal monetary-policy actions depend on the nature of the shocks hitting the economy, the present and future expected economic environment and, importantly, on the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy actions. these elements have a precise bearing on comparative exercises highlighting parallels and differences between monetary policies in different currency areas. for example, in order to compare the monetary policy decisions of the federal reserve and the european central bank, we must analyse, among other things, the structure of the economies in which they are operating, becau… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Three questions on monetary policy easing | Period_1 | 2009-03-10 | 0.142 | expectations about economic and financial conditions, more than would be justified by the facts. over recent months the deterioration in economic conditions, as reflected by the sharp fall in all leading indicators, and the rapid decrease in inflation, has created room for fast and substantial cuts in interest rates. the ecb has cut its key policy rate by 275 basis points since october last year. it has done so with unprecedented moves, including one move taken outside the regular monetary policy meetings. but it has also done so within its traditional monetary policy framework, in order to provide market participants with the appropriate analytical anchor to understand its decisions. another issue to take into account is the transmission of the easing impulse of monetary policy to the … |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: The challenges facing monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-01-27 | 0.139 | the monetary policy transmission mechanism the fourth challenge concerns the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the face of financial turmoil, particularly with regard to sovereign debts. this challenge is particularly acute in the euro area, where, unlike in the rest of the world, money is separate from public budgets. in the euro area, the public debt problems created by the crisis cannot be inflated away. the treaty rules it out. the conduct of the ecb rules it out. the other method of adjustment is the consolidation of public finances via a primary budget surplus that helps stabilise and then reduce the weight of public debt on gdp. in all countries this objective must be achieved, not only in the euro area. financial markets assess the risks associated w… |
| Jürgen Stark: Main challenges for monetary policy in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2008-03-31 | 0.127 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary stability and financial integration in Europe | Period_1 | 2005-05-19 | 0.123 | have direct implications for the transmission of monetary policy impulses. the degree of financial integration is important in determining how effectively this transmission will work in practice. for example, it cannot be ruled out that single monetary policy decisions may sometimes be channelled to countries in a non-uniform manner on account of the fact that the financial system of the euro area – that is, financial institutions, markets and the infrastructure – are not yet fully integrated in all aspects. this brings me to the second part of my address: european financial integration. |
| Peter Praet: Current issues of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2014-07-04 | 0.145 | economies. in spain in particular we observe a large discrepancy between the actual and the counterfactual scenario for loans extended to the manufacturing sector. second, lending rates have not declined in line with improvements in financial markets. lending conditions for smes remain particularly challenging in spain and italy. customers in these countries face sustained high bank lending rates for small loans, standing on average between one and two percentage points above comparable rates in germany. while these lending rates reflect credit risk, which has increased in these economies, this is not entirely a passive variable. indeed, lending rates can themselves become a propagator and amplifier of economic distress. on a macroeconomic level, borrower’s credit risk is endogenous. it… |
| Benoît Cœuré: The monetary policy of the European Central Bank | Period_2 | 2012-03-27 | 0.143 | monetary policy transmission let me briefly elaborate on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. you can see here on slide 2 why the monetary transmission mechanism is so important for central banks. the ecb has a statutory objective of price stability, which has been defined as a year-on-year positive inflation rate below 2%. within that range, the governing council aims at an inflation rate not too far from 2%. we say: “an inflation rate below, but close to, 2%”. however, in order to exert an influence on agents’ decisions which affect prices and inflation, the ecb has to start from the top of this chart and try to reach out to the bottom. the path that connects the two extremes – starting from the policy interest rate that the ecb controls through its monetary policy operation… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges to monetary policy in 2012 | Period_2 | 2011-12-15 | 0.131 |
|
| Mario Draghi: How central banks meet the challenge of low inflation | Period_2 | 2016-02-05 | 0.127 | transmitting the stance the first relates to monetary policy transmission. many central banks have faced impairments in the transmission process during the crisis – that is why, for example, the fed began intervening in markets for mortgage-backed securities, or the bank of england launched its funding-for-lending programme. but it is clear that those impairments have been more severe in the euro area. and moreover, they have had a distinct regional dimension that was not visible in other jurisdictions. |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.124 | clearly, the three factors i have discussed are not mutually exclusive. so it is crucial that we gain a much deeper understanding of their relevance and interactions in order to draw appropriate conclusions for how we conduct our monetary policy. as part of this, we need to understand how they might have interacted with monetary policy approaching the lower bound. this brings me to the final area i would like to discuss today: monetary policy transmission and effectiveness. monetary policy transmission and effectiveness as monetary policy everywhere has approached the lower bound, all major central banks have faced questions about their policy space and the traction of their tools on the economy. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.162 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.136 | in recognition of the strategic importance of protecting the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the december 2021 monetary policy statement affirmed: “within our mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability.” in addition to this general recognition of the value of flexibility under stressed conditions, the monetary policy statement also noted that, even after the end of net purchases under the pepp at the end of march 2022, the accumulated pepp portfolio can play a stabilising role: “/n particular, in the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, pepp reinvestments can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and juri… |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.126 | transmitting the policy stance for these changes in our monetary policy stance to be effective, we need to preserve the orderly transmission of our stance throughout the euro area. the ecb is conducting monetary policy in an incomplete monetary union, in which its policy has to be transmitted through 19 different financial and sovereign bond markets. the yields on those sovereign bonds provide the benchmark for pricing all other private sector assets in the 19 member states – and ultimately also for ensuring that our monetary policy impulse reaches individual firms and households. if spreads in some countries respond in a rapid and disorderly way to an underlying change in risk-free rates, over and above what would be justified by economic fundamentals, our capacity to deliver a single … |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.117 | governing council. the new instrument will have to be effective, while being proportionate and containing sufficient safeguards to preserve the impetus of member states towards a sound fiscal policy. this decision lies squarely within the ecb’s tradition. in the past, the ecb has made use of separate instruments to target inflation and to preserve the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. measures to preserve transmission could be used at any level of interest rates – so long as they were designed not to interfere with the monetary policy stance. at times when inflation fell too low, it made sense to shift from “separation” to “combination” so that all tools reinforced the required policy easing. that is why, for example, we linked asset purchases tightly to forward… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.110 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.96 Topic 97: country; government; italy; france; greece
5.96.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | country | 1 | 0.0648555 | italy | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 97 | government | 2 | 0.0323676 | france | 2 | 0.9996495 |
| 97 | italy | 3 | 0.0304959 | greece | 3 | 0.9992991 |
| 97 | france | 4 | 0.0271535 | spain | 4 | 0.9991239 |
| 97 | greece | 5 | 0.0256828 | portugal | 5 | 0.9990361 |
| 97 | spain | 6 | 0.0255492 | greek | 6 | 0.9987288 |
| 97 | europe | 7 | 0.0244796 | ireland | 7 | 0.9985105 |
| 97 | germany | 8 | 0.0220731 | italian | 8 | 0.9978084 |
| 97 | portugal | 9 | 0.0169927 | netherlands | 9 | 0.9972834 |
| 97 | european | 10 | 0.0155220 | trichet | 10 | 0.9964954 |
| 97 | ireland | 11 | 0.0153883 | slovenia | 11 | 0.9962757 |
| 97 | situation | 12 | 0.0152546 | belgium | 12 | 0.9962279 |
| 97 | time | 13 | 0.0148535 | germany | 13 | 0.9962262 |
| 97 | greek | 14 | 0.0148535 | french | 14 | 0.9957053 |
| 97 | reform | 15 | 0.0147198 | election | 15 | 0.9956157 |
5.96.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Der Spiegel | Period_1 | 2010-05-19 | 0.286 | spiegel: mr trichet, how have you been sleeping these last few days? trichet: i always sleep well! spiegel: not had any nightmares? trichet: no. spiegel: nevertheless, the financial world has changed since the weekend before last. the countries of the euro area have put together a previously unimaginable rescue package with a value of over €700 billion in order to save reeling member states from default. even your institution has relented on a few of its firmest principles and now intends to purchase even poorly rated government bonds. trichet: no, we have not relented on our principles. price stability is our primary mandate and compass. that being said, it is clear that since september 2008 we have been facing the most difficult situation since the second world war – perhaps even sinc… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Der Spiegel | Period_1 | 2010-05-19 | 0.230 | that triggered a very bold and comprehensive financial support by governments. and now we see the signature of some governments put into question. this is a problem for almost all industrialised countries. in the g7, the major economies have a yearly deficit of around 10 % of gdp. in the euro area as a whole it averages 7% of gdp. in this situation with extremely elevated deficits across the globe, the markets have singled out a weak link: greece. also taking into account the fact that its statistics were incorrect at one time, market pressure was concentrated there and a drastic adjustment programme was necessary. spiegel: apparently it was not only greece that came under attack. portugal was next… trichet: in the market, there is always a danger of contagion – like the contagion we sa… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in Bild | Period_1 | 2011-01-17 | 0.223 | germany is the biggest contributor to the rescue of the euro. are we europe’s paymaster? germany is a very important country in europe. the measures to combat the debt crisis are borne jointly by the member states. germany is an important anchor for europe, not only on account of its economic size, but also and above all owing to its own creditworthiness, its sound fiscal policy and its competitiveness. why does europe not just let default countries go bankrupt? first, i would say: debts should be repaid. it is the rule of law. now, the international monetary fund has been around for many years to help marshalling adjustments in countries with difficulties, in order for them to recover their creditworthiness and honour their commitments. europe is in line with this approach, for the sak… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview in The Wall Street Journal | Period_1 | 2011-01-24 | 0.215 | trichet: as i said, they have to improve the stabilization fund in both quality and quantity. by quality i mean having a tool that is as flexible as possible. wsj: you have said bond purchases are meant to ensure the transmission of monetary policy. if efsf buys bonds, wouldn’t that take a monetary function away from the ecb and give it to a fiscal authority? trichet: as all our non-standard measures, the securities purchase is indeed meant to help restoring a better transmission mechanism of our monetary policy. it is clear that if markets are functioning better more generally then we have less problems in the transmission of monetary policy. in any case, the main tool to improve the situation is to restore the credibility of individual governments themselves. wsj: should countries be … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Interview with L’Espresso | Period_1 | 2006-09-21 | 0.204 | you were in cernobbio, italy, in early september. what was the mood among italian entrepreneurs, politicians and economists? i saw further confirmation of the great potential of italy and of the italian corporate sector, but i also found unanimous agreement that one of the most important problems facing italy is the insufficient labour productivity and consequently the rise of unit labour costs. it is a european problem, and not only an italian problem, but in italy it is particularly visible: we have to do all that we can to implement the lisbon agenda aiming at accelerating productivity growth. but the italian industrial structure is weak nowadays. what should be done? research carried out in italy and in europe, more generally, has concluded that we are not benefiting sufficiently fr… |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank - rebuilding trust, restoring prosperity and re-establishing price stability | Period_2 | 2015-11-11 | 0.253 | emergency liquidity assistance for greek banks in its decisions the ecb is bound both by the statute and by the other provisions of the treaty. the choices of the governing council concerning greece were another example of strict adherence to the letter and spirit of both. this was apparent a few months ago when, amid a worsening economic and political situation, the government and the greek banks lost access to market funding and depositors started to withdraw their money from the banks. the banks became completely dependent on emergency liquidity assistance, a form of “lending of last resort”, from the eurosystem. ela became the sole channel through which greek banks could continue to function and make payments, and through which deposits could continue to flow to other parts of the e… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Radio Classique | Period_2 | 2017-01-30 | 0.231 | and the convergence you’re talking of – what does it mean for france? french growth is now picking up but it remains lower than that of germany and the euro area, so the reforms in france have to continue in order to consolidate growth. and that will allow france’s voice to be heard in the euro area. what are these reforms? i am not going to enter into a debate which is now an election debate. the reforms are… is it necessary to copy what germany has been doing for a decade, wage moderation alongside a more flexible labour market? yes, there is a need for a labour market which works in a more flexible way, but there must also be productivity, innovation and education enhancement policies, notably in higher education, to ensure that france remains at the forefront of innovation. and ge… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview in Il Sole 24 Ore | Period_2 | 2015-11-03 | 0.230 | speaking of greece, you have acknowledged that even with the implementation of the programme, athens will need debt restructuring. do you think that this should be done gradually, so as to preserve the incentive for the greek government to comply with its obligations? greek debt is sustainable if, first, the government complies with the obligations under the programme that it has agreed to, taking responsibility for or ownership of the programme. second, for the debt to be sustainable a certain degree of relief is required; the latter should be such as to remove any doubt as to the future sustainability of the debt itself, once the first condition has been met. what type of “debt relief” to provide and how to calibrate it so that incentives for compliance with the programme are not dist… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Bild Zeitung | Period_2 | 2012-03-23 | 0.230 | part ii bild: there is no end to the crisis in greece. yet again, more than €100 billion of credit is to be given to them. but isn’t the country a bottomless pit? draghi: the greeks have passed very many important reforms in parliament. if they also implement these, the country has a chance to get itself out of the current downward spiral. bild: but the parties that reject the reforms will be the ones that win in the upcoming elections. draghi: to overcome the crisis, greece needs a stable political situation. bild: why should taxpayers in germany and other euro area countries be liable if it goes wrong? draghi: the fact is that european taxpayers have taken on a lot for greece. their money must be protected. this is also why the ecb did not take part in the debt relief – because the co… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-11-13 | 0.215 | the ecb and the macroeconomic adjustment programmes let me now turn to a topic that the chair has asked me specifically to address, namely the macroeconomic adjustment programmes and the ecb’s role in their negotiation and monitoring. benoît cœuré spoke on this topic here last year, so i will be brief; but of course, we can discuss more during the q&a session if you wish. to understand our role in the programme work, one needs to recall the initial conditions in which the programme setup was established. in spring 2010 there was no framework in place at the european level to negotiate and monitor adjustment programmes. in this situation, member states turned to the imf and the commission for help, and they also asked the ecb to contribute its expertise at a time when europe needed it mo… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.122 | forward looking euro area wage tracker (annual percentage changes; percentage share) calculated based on microdata on wage agreements in germany, italy, spain and the netherlands. data fort the netherlands is based on the database maintained by the dutch employer association awvn. for italy the data comes from istat (contratti collettivi e retribuzioni contrattuali), for spain from the ministerio de trabajo y economía social and for germany from bundesbank. notes: experimental euro area wage tracker includes weighted average of germany, italy (data from july 2021 to september 2022) spain and the netherlands. the orange line shows the weighted average of wage increases in agreements that have not yet expired, weighted by the number of workers covered by these agreements. the green lines … |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.084 | beveridge curve negotiated wages (y-axis: job vacancy rate, percentages of jobs; x- (annual percentage changes) axis: u7 rate, percentages of the labour force) @ beveridge curve — u7 versus jvr me fo are =n any 278 20213 -<=-euro area (excluding = - ; bonuses) : —=netherlands 2.50 201904 a 5 5 “ne 2.25 4 4b 2.00 202002 ~ ~ | 1.75 — 150 201103 ° “ty a -y it | | eta 1.25 1.00 0 “talelelclalelelclale 0 = = “tole tr ai) 5 10 15 °20 95 big|gb|gig|g|g|gia|a]a} is cs als 5|a ’alle: slale g| 2019 2020 2021 | 2019 9020 2021 left-hand panel. sources: ecb calculations based on data from eurostat, federal employment agency germany, ifo institute munich, ministere du travail, de l’emploi et de i’insertion, instituto nazionale previdenza sociale (inps), and ministerio de inclusion, seguridad social y… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.070 | in particular, under the next generation eu (ngeu) programme a european fiscal instrument was created with the necessary resources to support the recovery.[12] the interventions were based on national recovery and resilience plans detailing reform and investment strategies consistent with shared objectives at european level, such as the green and digital transitions.[13] high debt countries, such as italy and spain, obtained european resources amounting, respectively, to 11% and 6% of gdp. this created the basis for a european social contract for exiting the pandemic: eu member states committed to make their economies more competitive in exchange for european funding.[14] in this way, not only would ngeu enhance medium-term growth prospects but it would also contribute to convergence. t… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.063 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.055 | country is eligible to tpi, it will activate tpi, and, as i said earlier on, there is no ex-ante limit to that programme. now, i’m happy to go through the four specific criteria if any of you are interested. so there are four of them, and i think it’s important that we understand that on this occasion, like on any occasion having to do with either monetary policy stance or monetary policy transmission, the ecb determines in its own discretion, not being hostage to anyone. so the four criteria that it will use will be indicative, will be elements of information that it will take into account in order to make its decision. so the first one is compliance with eu fiscal framework, and that can take one of two forms, either not be in excessive deficit procedure, or having failed to take the … |
The most representative speeches:
5.97 Topic 98: question; view; issue; concern; debate
5.97.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | question | 1 | 0.0876741 | question | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 98 | view | 2 | 0.0726053 | debate | 2 | 0.9994743 |
| 98 | issue | 3 | 0.0542040 | answer | 3 | 0.9994741 |
| 98 | concern | 4 | 0.0491328 | view | 4 | 0.9990356 |
| 98 | debate | 5 | 0.0323254 | concern | 5 | 0.9987729 |
| 98 | fact | 6 | 0.0300071 | argument | 6 | 0.9985977 |
| 98 | answer | 7 | 0.0260950 | issue | 7 | 0.9984215 |
| 98 | raise | 8 | 0.0247910 | observer | 8 | 0.9982470 |
| 98 | discussion | 9 | 0.0191402 | argue | 9 | 0.9979849 |
| 98 | relate | 10 | 0.0185606 | discussion | 10 | 0.9973701 |
| 98 | argue | 11 | 0.0182709 | opinion | 11 | 0.9973697 |
| 98 | limit | 12 | 0.0168219 | aspect | 12 | 0.9971964 |
| 98 | argument | 13 | 0.0162424 | wrong | 13 | 0.9968390 |
| 98 | regard | 14 | 0.0146486 | raise | 14 | 0.9965783 |
| 98 | relevant | 15 | 0.0118956 | fact | 15 | 0.9964886 |
5.97.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Central banks in the 21st century | Period_1 | 2006-06-13 | 0.139 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Careful with (the D) words! | Period_1 | 2008-11-27 | 0.109 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: Central banks in the 21st century | Period_1 | 2006-06-13 | 0.089 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.089 |
|
| Otmar Issing: Monetary and financial stability - is there a trade-off? | Period_1 | 2003-03-31 | 0.086 | policy implications i have at previous occasions already stated my doubts that price stability should be added to the list of 16 causes triggering financial instability. i do not deny the fact that financial fragility can be significant in times of low inflation. but the latter statement that low inflation is not a sufficient condition for financial stability and the former that low inflation causes financial instability, are worlds apart. here i would like to focus on two particular aspects, which is the trade-off question with respect to the “new environment” hypothesis and the related relevance of the problems associated with identifying asset 17 price bubbles. in the spirit of tinbergen if the central bank has one policy instrument, i.e. monetary policy, it can only achieve one inde… |
| Philip R Lane: Q&A with Reuters | Period_2 | 2019-10-01 | 0.106 | what you should pay attention to is: we’ve got an open-ended programme, we’ve given you conditions under which it will come to an end. and i think the kind of concerns that we would be unable to run the programme, i don’t think you should be too concerned about that. honestly, at the governing council, any potential collision with the current limits is so far in the future that if we’re stuck at that situation, i don’t think that’s top of the list of headaches to worry about. but do you think you have the authority to exceed the one-third cap? again, remember: this is self-imposed, this is an ecb decision about these limits. there’s very good reasons for the limit, but we also have our ultimate mandate, which is to deliver price stability. so we don’t want to raise the limits. there’s g… |
| Philip R Lane: Q&A with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2019-10-01 | 0.104 | philip r lane: q&a with bloomberg q&a with mr philip r lane, member of the executive board of the european central bank, conducted by ms stephanie flanders, at bloomberg, london, 16 september 2019. * * * the following is a transcript of an on stage question and answer following mr lane’s speech, reflections on monetary policy. i did take the precaution of inviting mainly economists today, so i think they will have found your speech very exciting and interesting. whether a broader cross-section of london would have had the same reaction, we don’t know, but it doesn’t matter. you’ve often said, particularly in times of unconventional policies, how important communications are for monetary policy. a lot of the communications that we’ve been talking about over the last few days, since the p… |
| Jürgen Stark: Globalisation and monetary policy - from virtue to vice? | Period_2 | 2011-11-30 | 0.099 | complementarities between globalised economic performance and policymaking second, following the broad acceptance of the premise that the globalised world would be durable in nature, academics and policymakers devoted their attention to fleshing out the practical implications of globalisation in different policy environments. insofar as monetary policy was concerned, the debate was broadly captured by the relative weight of improved policymaking versus globalised factors in accounting for successful economic outcomes. a first dimension in this regard was backward looking in nature and stemmed from the sharp reduction in the variability of both inflation and output during the 1990s. this phenomenon, which became known as “the great moderation”, coincided with both the intensification of |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2018-03-14 | 0.093 | risks globally. that’s what we refer to with that. it’s quite clear that if we have retaliation, we may have effects on confidence that i mentioned before. this would certainly at the very least introduce higher uncertainty in the future growth path. more generally, i think there are two main risks that one can see today. one is this one that i mentioned related to trade. there is also another risk that is less mentioned these days. that’s the risk of financial deregulation in other major jurisdictions. we should not forget what the situation was before the crisis – in the years leading to the crisis. like today, we had an expansionary monetary policy which was justified by the conditions at that time, as ours is justified by the conditions today. but in the 10–12 years before the crisi… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-07-15 | 0.088 | the second question is why we are seeing this divergence in views, and whether it is temporary or likely to persist. let me try to answer each of these two questions in turn. which expectations matter most? existing research casts some doubt on the macroeconomic relevance of professional inflation forecasts, including those of financial markets. there are three related strands in the literature that suggest that household inflation expectations are often better predictors of future inflation outcomes.13 |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2021-10-28 | 0.088 | currently pushing up inflation. while inflation will take longer to decline than previously expected, we expect these factors to ease in the course of next year. we continue to foresee inflation in the medium term remaining below our two per cent target. our policy measures, including our revised forward guidance on the key ecb interest rates, are crucial to helping the economy shift to a sustained recovery and, ultimately, to bringing inflation over the medium term to our target. we are now ready to take your questions. *** president lagarde, thank you very much for taking my questions. i was wondering, because the markets were – well, everybody was anticipating that this meeting was all about inflation, so what have you been discussing, and what was on top of your agenda? was there at… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.061 | money it receives could be interrupted by this political crisis, so also threatening the growth outlook in the whole euro zone? my second question. very often in the last decade at least, the rises of rates on government bonds were caused by political crises. so if i’m not wrong, you mentioned the four criteria, and italy would meet these criteria at this moment. but this is, of course, a crisis which is caused by a political reason, by a political cause, a government crisis, self-inflicted by italy. would you think that this could be considered as an unwarranted rise of rates on the government bonds if it went on? the spread is already rising this morning. let me just remind you that the ecb does not take a stance on political matters. political matters are for the democratic process o… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.056 | policy normalisation, transmission lags and global spillovers in recent months, the public debate has stressed the risks of doing too little to curb inflation, since this would require a more painful future adjustment. but this should not make us underappreciate the risk of doing too much. first, we should bear in mind that it takes time before the full impact of our measures is felt in the economy.[16] moreover, monetary policy is transmitted to different variables with different lags. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.048 | while all hicp components added to this high number, energy price inflation in the euro area is standing at close to 40%, illustrating the magnitude of relative price changes in the recent period. central banks around the world are responding forcefully to these developments. the ecb raised its policy rates by 50 basis points in july and by another 75 basis points last week. based on our current assessment, over the governing council’s next several meetings, we expect to raise interest rates further towards levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target. the current normalisation phase refocuses the attention of monetary policymakers on one of the classic questions in macroeconomics: how do central bank policy rates affect inflation and aggregate eco… |
| Christine Lagarde: Introductory statement - European Parliament plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report | Period_3 | 2022-02-17 | 0.048 | consider influential factors relevant for our medium-term horizon. third, we must be clear about our actions. our audience should be able to understand what we are trying to achieve with our measures, as well as why they are effective, efficient and remain proportionate to our aim. clearly communicating these three a’s to different audiences often means being more simple and straightforward. but being more simple does not mean being simplistic. it means being more inclusive when we talk. following on from our strategy review, we are using clearer, more narrative-driven language, together with visuals people can relate to. finally, in all our communication, we need to be open about what we can and cannot do as a central bank. for example, our monetary policy cannot fill pipelines with ga… |
The most representative speeches:
5.98 Topic 100: investment; increase; reduce; firm; capital
5.98.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | investment | 1 | 0.0663268 | resource | 1 | 0.9993863 |
| 100 | increase | 2 | 0.0492968 | productive | 2 | 0.9985100 |
| 100 | reduce | 3 | 0.0439961 | investment | 3 | 0.9979809 |
| 100 | firm | 4 | 0.0419660 | efficient | 4 | 0.9978972 |
| 100 | capital | 5 | 0.0389209 | allocation | 5 | 0.9976339 |
| 100 | create | 6 | 0.0250488 | capital | 6 | 0.9974559 |
| 100 | cost | 7 | 0.0248232 | incentive | 7 | 0.9970209 |
| 100 | resource | 8 | 0.0235826 | reduce | 8 | 0.9968381 |
| 100 | good | 9 | 0.0213270 | human | 9 | 0.9967983 |
| 100 | benefit | 10 | 0.0176052 | create | 10 | 0.9964886 |
| 100 | efficient | 11 | 0.0172669 | efficiency | 11 | 0.9964079 |
| 100 | market | 12 | 0.0154623 | firm | 12 | 0.9963985 |
| 100 | economy | 13 | 0.0151240 | invest | 13 | 0.9963195 |
| 100 | productive | 14 | 0.0142218 | human capital | 14 | 0.9963092 |
| 100 | incentive | 15 | 0.0137706 | efficient allocation | 15 | 0.9959108 |
5.98.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.281 | r&d and policies geared towards improving human capital. a more entrepreneur- friendly economic environment is also needed, to ensure that new and dynamic firms emerge which can reap the benefits of pursuing creative and innovative ventures. we know that r&d, as well as human capital, makes valuable contributions to productivity growth. in 2006, r&d investment relative to gdp was only 1.9% in the euro area, compared with 2.7% in the united states. cooperation between universities, public sector research institutes and industry must also intensify in order to raise the efficiency of public r&d spending. unfortunately, in several euro area countries investment in human capital is still too low for a “knowledge-intensive” economy. this is a matter of concern since the employability and fle… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the euro area and its future | Period_1 | 2008-07-15 | 0.207 | effective competition in the energy market and the implementation of the services directive. 16 (3) supporting an innovative environment: the reforms that i have mentioned need to be accompanied by measures supporting innovation through higher investment in research and development and policies geared towards improving human capital. europe needs many new and dynamic firms that are willing to reap the benefits of opening markets and to pursue creative or innovative ventures. notably, it is new and smaller firms – rather than large ones – that are the job creators. this requires an entrepreneur-friendly environment with less “red tape”, and easier access to the finance these firms need. europe is lagging significantly behind in this field; its venture capital financing, for instance, rem… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2007-03-22 | 0.190 | social benefits of price stability let me now turn to my last point today in which i would like to emphasise the critical role of our quantitative definition of price stability in orienting expectations. i have mentioned how persistent conditions of price stability can change the transmission channels in ways that can partly alleviate structural shortcomings of the economy. in the euro area, notwithstanding structural rigidities that impede price and wage adjustments – rigidities that cannot be corrected by a central bank – well- anchored inflation expectations partly compensate for and make the transmission mechanism less inefficient than it would be otherwise. but welfare analysis has also drawn attention to other, and perhaps even more fundamental, channels through which price stabil… |
| Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Challenges for the Euro at ten | Period_1 | 2008-12-12 | 0.156 | retraining, and shedding workers, and continued investment in research and development (r&d). in 2006, the fraction of r&d investment relative to gdp in the euro area was only 1.9 per cent, compared with 2.7 per cent in the united states. this is a first dimension along which improvements ought to be made. it is also necessary to intensify cooperation between industry, universities, and public sector research institutes, in order to raise the efficiency of public r&d spending. as for investment in human capital, in several euro area countries its rate of accumulation is still insufficient, in particular when compared with the needs of contemporary, knowledge-intensive economies. the effectiveness of the accumulation of human capital should be enhanced at all stages of the education proc… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Building Europe in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2007-10-25 | 0.145 | ones. in many euro area countries, structural reforms have been too slow to facilitate the reallocation of resources to their most productive uses and to foster labour productivity growth and technological progress. the implementation of structural reforms is envisaged under a wide-ranging programme for economic, social and environmental reform in the eu, a programme known as the lisbon strategy. in particular, member states are required to reduce tax burdens on low-wage earners, to bring wage developments into line with productivity, to raise the skill level of the workforce as well as to adopt active ageing strategies to encourage older workers to stay in the workforce. this strategy should increase the flexibility of, and lower the adjustment costs for, european firms and workers con… |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2016-06-23 | 0.255 | macroprudential role, has an important role to play in ensuring that banking markets efficiently allocate resources to the most productive investment opportunities across the euro area. progress on the capital markets union is also essential to develop a favourable environment for productive investment in the eu. it will help diversify the sources of funding needed to spur investment – notably for smes and long-term projects – by complementing bank financing with deeper, more developed capital markets. the legislative acts regarding simple, transparent and standardised securitisation you are discussing are tangible examples of how eu legislation can broaden financing opportunities for eu companies, foster cross-border investment and ultimately have a positive impact on the eu investment… |
| Mario Draghi: On the importance of policy alignment to fulfil our economic potential | Period_2 | 2016-06-09 | 0.211 | what is more, the secular shift from manufacturing to services can be consistent with higher productivity if resources are well allocated. in fact, there are very large differences between the most and least productive firms within each sector, even more so than across sectors.[21] this implies that, even in a services-oriented economy, aggregate productivity can still be improved. so the euro area faces a twin policy challenge: to get more firms in each sector to the productivity frontier, and to get more labour and capital to those productive firms. and crucially, this would not only boost output, but also employment and wage equality, since labour would be concentrating in firms that are both growing and demanding higher value skills. to achieve this there are, in my view, three poli… |
| Peter Praet: Price stability - a sinking will-o’-the-wisp? | Period_2 | 2015-04-17 | 0.205 | price incentive, the imbalance will be rectified at some point, and real rates will catch up with (a higher) potential rate over time. 6 if the second interpretation is correct, we are in the fortunate position that the policy conclusions are not so different. the necessary policies that are required to capitalise on the low interest rate environment are the same policies that can repair dynamic inefficiency. in essence, no matter how you read the chart 4 – or if indeed a combination of interpretations is correct – the safest template for policy action involves largely the same combination of policy strategies. while monetary policy is attempting to shadow the equilibrium real rate, which has been reduced in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the counterpart economic policy authorit… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Challenges for euro area monetary policy in early 2018 | Period_2 | 2017-12-29 | 0.186 | this is a particular risk at present when, as i described earlier, any future increase in interest rates needs to be gradual, and hence moving late could result in policy remaining too loose for too long. certainly as the time comes to reconsider our monetary policy stance during the course of 2018, we should reflect at length on the degree to which we wish to pre-commit ourselves. risks to monetary policy extend beyond the immediate outlook for inflation. our policies have reduced the spread over risk-free interest rates paid by households and firms for their borrowing, and unblocked the flow of credit to the real economy. such spreads are at their lowest ever level. yet reduced spreads may encourage investment in businesses that are only profitable at low interest rates, and such loan… |
| Peter Praet: Economic developments in the euro area | Period_2 | 2015-02-12 | 0.180 | the pivotal role of governments still, it is clear that if our measures are to generate a faster and more sustained recovery then governments also have to play their part. in particular, at both the micro and macro levels, structural reforms are pivotal to encourage firms to capitalise on the easing of financial conditions and undertake new investment projects. at the micro level, any investment project will happen if the return on investment sufficiently exceeds the cost of capital. monetary policy can increase the wedge between the two on the downside, by lowering the cost of capital. but structural reforms can increase the wedge on the upside, by raising returns – for example by reducing costs arising from unnecessary red tape. at the macro level, monetary policy can influence invest… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.097 | a balance will need to be found between remaining open, in order to support economic efficiency, while avoiding dependencies on suppliers that may become unreliable. this is the objective of the eu’s drive towards an “open strategic autonomy”. 3.1 the versailles declaration: implications for europe’s economic governance the versailles declaration of 11 march recognised that this conflict will have far-reaching effects on the structure and governance of the european economy.[20] in this declaration, eu leaders defined russia’s aggression against ukraine as a “tectonic shift in european history”. the declaration identifies security as a key common public good. and it identifies three conditions to achieve it: reducing energy dependence, bolstering defence capabilities and building a more … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.092 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.092 | tensions in the repo market[30], but we will continue to monitor the situation closely. the importance of a consistent policy mix as recently seen in other economies, an inconsistent policy mix can prove destabilising. so a successful normalisation process requires other policies to be consistent with monetary policy. for instance, well- designed energy and fiscal policies can make a key contribution to dampening short-term inflationary pressures, thereby helping to keep inflation expectations anchored[31] and reducing the amount of monetary tightening necessary. to take a concrete example, the measures that have been taken to find alternatives to russian gas, reduce gas demand and refill gas storage are likely playing an important role in bringing down gas prices. likewise, joint initi… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.081 | for instance, today’s supply shortages may induce firms to diversify their supply chains or re-shore some of their production. previous pandemics like sars were found to have had this effect.!2°! that process could lead to higher cost structures that prioritise resilience over efficiency, which are then passed on to consumers. geopolitics might also interfere in trade patterns and accelerate these shifts. in parallel, faster digitalisation in europe could initially create skill mismatches and scarcities, leading to wage increases even in the presence of persistent slack. the rate of job reallocations in major economies is estimated to double between 2019 and mid-2022.!26! this dynamic could also be reinforced by a renewed focus on inequality, which could lead to upward pressure on wages… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.073 | finally, governments should reinforce their efforts to deepen capital markets and create a green capital markets union. ecb research has long shown that stock markets are more effective than banks in supporting the decarbonisation of the economy.[16] yet, eu equity markets remain fragmented and often illiquid. reliance on bank lending at a time of rising constraints on banks’ balance sheets considerably reduces the set of options for firms to push ahead with their green agenda. the european commission’s recent package of legislative measures, including the proposed harmonisation of key aspects of corporate insolvency law and the removal of red tape for companies to list and raise capital on public exchanges, is an important step in the right direction.[17] but further decisive steps are… |
The most representative speeches:
5.99 Topic 101: demand; growth; domestic; expect; factor
5.99.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | demand | 1 | 0.0993018 | domestic demand | 1 | 0.9993427 |
| 101 | growth | 2 | 0.0816424 | external | 2 | 0.9989486 |
| 101 | domestic | 3 | 0.0557966 | demand | 3 | 0.9989476 |
| 101 | expect | 4 | 0.0369677 | domestic | 4 | 0.9988604 |
| 101 | factor | 5 | 0.0362660 | prospect | 5 | 0.9977220 |
| 101 | external | 6 | 0.0311203 | weak | 6 | 0.9976769 |
| 101 | domestic demand | 7 | 0.0248050 | external demand | 7 | 0.9975408 |
| 101 | weak | 8 | 0.0248050 | global demand | 8 | 0.9963166 |
| 101 | reflect | 9 | 0.0190745 | weaken | 9 | 0.9962325 |
| 101 | decline | 10 | 0.0190745 | factor | 10 | 0.9962233 |
| 101 | good | 11 | 0.0189575 | protracted period | 11 | 0.9958308 |
| 101 | prospect | 12 | 0.0182558 | driver | 12 | 0.9957508 |
| 101 | strong | 13 | 0.0155660 | growth prospect | 13 | 0.9955675 |
| 101 | fall | 14 | 0.0150982 | foreign demand | 14 | 0.9955175 |
| 101 | remain | 15 | 0.0142795 | external environment | 15 | 0.9954720 |
5.99.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The economic outlook and the ECB’s monetary policy - some key issues | Period_1 | 2004-11-12 | 0.218 | the economic outlook and monetary policy in the euro area i will start by discussing the current state of the euro area economy and the medium-term economic outlook. the performance of the euro area economy this year is characterised by the ongoing recovery of economic activity at a pace somewhat faster than previously envisaged. inflation, however, has remained above (though relatively close to) 2%. this outcome is not in line with our notion of price stability and is higher than the average inflation expected a year ago for 2004. the sharp rise in oil prices since the beginning of this year, by about 60% (in us dollar terms), has been the main reason for the higher than earlier expected inflation. let me elaborate a bit on the pace of the economic recovery, the factors that have contr… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports on the current position and future prospects of the European System of Central Banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 27 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-12-04 | 0.180 | recent economic developments and prospects let me turn to the current economic situation. the euro area experienced a strengthening of economic growth in 1997, to 2.5%, and a further acceleration has been anticipated for this year. the global environment has, of course, deteriorated in the meantime, but this has not so far had an observable impact on growth, which has, in any event, been increasingly led by domestic demand. inflation has remained subdued and even fallen somewhat over the past year, partly as a result of the impact of weaker global demand on oil and commodity prices. however, the favourable pattern of inflation has also been supported by domestic factors, such as a very moderate development in unit labour costs and industrial producer prices. |
| Mr Noyer gives a review of the economic situation in the euro area (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Mar 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-02-13 | 0.172 | no estimate for real gdp is yet available for the final quarter of last year, but on the basis of available indicators growth should have continued to be strong. taken together, the year 1999 has been characterised by a rather swift and strong rebound from the slowdown in growth in the course of 1998 and early 1999 following the crises in asia and russia. indeed, when reviewing the magnitude of the disturbances in the external environment as they appeared at the time, the likely outcome of 2% for euro area growth in 1999 as a whole is not bad at all. judging from the currently available evidence, there seems to be a broad consensus in the forecasting community that the prospects for a strengthening of growth in the years 2000 and 2001 are favourable. on average, the latest forecasts poi… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: European Economic and Monetary Union: a success story | Period_1 | 2001-06-26 | 0.153 | euro exchange rates. the projections by eurosystem experts are therefore “conditional” and not directly comparable with the “unconditional” projections published by other institutions such as the european commission, the imf and the oecd, for example. moreover, the projections are published in the form of ranges, in order to take account of the degree of uncertainty. the ranges reflect the average forecast error from previous periods and therefore differ between each of the projected variables and the projection horizon. compared with december 2000, growth expectations for 2000 and 2001 have been reduced. it is probable that in 2001 real gdp growth in the euro area will decline as compared with the strong increase observed in 2000, before recovering slightly in 2002. overall, this year … |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.121 |
|
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in the euro area | Period_2 | 2019-03-27 | 0.229 | mario draghi: monetary policy in the euro area speech by mr mario draghi, president of the european central bank, at the conference “the ecb and its watchers xx”, frankfurt am main, 27 march 2019. * * * the last year has seen a loss of growth momentum in the euro area, which has extended into 2019. this has been predominantly driven by pervasive uncertainty in the global economy that has spilled over into the external sector. so far, the domestic economy has remained relatively resilient and the drivers of the current expansion remain in place. however, the risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. the monetary policy measures we took at the last governing council meeting reflect this assessment. in the face of a weaker growth outlook, they help maintain the accommodative poli… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy in the euro area | Period_2 | 2019-03-27 | 0.186 | demand will remain as resilient today. the demand component typically affected most by a weaker global environment is investment. ecb internal analysis shows that the more exposed euro area listed firms are to foreign markets, the more sensitive they are to uncertainty when making their investment decisions. and there are some signs that external demand may be affecting investment via manufacturing value chains within the euro area. in particular, both extra and intra-euro area trade slowed steeply last year, whereas in 2016 intra- euro area trade was robust to the external slowdown. such a recoupling of intra- and extra-euro area trade growth in a downward direction has not occurred since the start of the global financial crisis. intra-euro area exports of intermediate and capital good… |
| Mario Draghi: The outlook for the euro area economy | Period_2 | 2018-11-16 | 0.148 | strong trade growth recorded last year. trade dynamics are now normalising as global growth retreats towards potential. insofar as world trade stabilises at a lower level, its drag on growth could also be temporary. but there are two conditions that could make it longer-lasting. the first is if trade uncertainty rises and dampens euro area export performance, in particular owing to protectionism. the preliminary trade agreement reached between the us, canada and mexico reduces some uncertainty, but other disputes remain. some indicators suggest this is feeding into the trade outlook. the manufacturing pmi for the euro area fell to a two-year low in october, with export- oriented economies recording particularly large drops. new export orders contracted for the first time since 2013. the… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.141 | reflections on monetary policy page 3 of 18 tirpák, m. (2019), markit, thomson financial datastream, fred, kita and ecb calculations. latest update: august 2019 (pmi, philadelphia semiconductor index and us tech pulse index) and july 2019 (korean semiconductor exports). turning to the euro area, real gdp growth slowed from 0.4 percent, quarter on quarter, in the first quarter of this year, to 0.2 percent in the second quarter. this slowdown was due to a contraction of net exports, reflecting the weakness in the external environment, while domestic demand remained resilient. |
| Mario Draghi: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2015-11-13 | 0.136 | economic developments and monetary policy incoming data confirm that the recovery in the euro area is progressing moderately. so far, economic activity in the euro area has shown some degree of resilience in the face of external influences that tend to weaken demand. while external demand has receded, euro area exports market shares have increased. the lower cost of energy and our monetary policy measures are supporting consumption and, increasingly, new capital formation. however, downside risks stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible. moreover, inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened, mainly due to lower oil prices and the delayed effects of the stronger euro exchange rate seen earlier in the year. in addition, price pressures – such as from producer prices – remai… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.131 | services inflation is closely linked to the strength of the domestic economy. it depends heavily on wage growth, as wages make up around 40% of the inputs for consumer services — double the share for goods. and robust domestic demand is crucial for a strong pass-through from wages to services prices.!1¥! so the key question today is whether the transition out of the pandemic could lift the outlook for domestic demand and thereby contribute to more dynamic services inflation. here we see forces that point in different directions. first, owing mainly to lockdowns, households are sitting on a large stock of savings that they have accumulated during the pandemic. our new consumer expectations survey suggests that households |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.113 | economic activity euro area real gdp growth was robust in the first half of 2022, supported by the reopening of economies in the second quarter as pandemic-related restrictions were lifted. however, the outlook has since darkened due to high inflation, waning reopening effects, weakening global demand and falling confidence. these factors are likely to cause a significant slowdown in euro area gdp growth in the second half of the year 1/4 bis - central bankers’ speeches |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.105 | euro area and world gdp imf world economic outlook and ecb calculations. in relation to the composition of domestic demand, chart 2 shows that consumption and investment remain below pre-pandemic levels, whereas government spending (the sum of public consumption and public investment) has been substantially above the pre-pandemic level since the second half of 2020. the still-subdued level of private expenditure in the euro area stands in contrast to the much stronger recovery in domestic demand in the united states. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.095 | the changing environment one of the most important macroeconomic stories of the past 30 years has been the rising interconnectedness of the global economy and its implications for global supply and demand. china’s entry into the global economy led to a massive increase in global labour supply. global supply chains became more unbundled and efficient, lowering inventory levels and reducing costs. and energy markets changed fundamentally as new producers emerged, notably us shale oil and gas, making global oil and gas supply significantly more elastic.[1] at the same time, globalisation allowed growth to become less beholden to swings in domestic demand, as countries could rotate demand towards the rest of the world when faced with domestic slumps. this proved especially valuable for euro… |
| Fabio Panetta: The complexity of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.081 | euro area employment across sectors ecb staff calculations based on eurostat data. note: the latest observations are for the first quarter of 2022. as a result, the output and unemployment gaps are giving different signals today. according to our projections, real gdp is expected to remain below its pre-pandemic path over the projection horizon, whereas the labour market is expected to remain resilient.[11] however, the relative contributions of supply and demand conditions are likely to change over time. in particular, the release of pent-up demand largely explains the recent contribution of demand to inflation. this is different from a cyclical upswing that “feeds on itself”[12], or a sustained increase in consumption as seen in the united states as a result of a highly expansionary f… |
The most representative speeches:
5.100 Topic 102: stability; price stability; definition; objective; define
5.100.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | stability | 1 | 0.1501238 | definition | 1 | 0.9995619 |
| 102 | price stability | 2 | 0.1303424 | stability objective | 2 | 0.9992986 |
| 102 | definition | 3 | 0.0556253 | price stability objective | 3 | 0.9989482 |
| 102 | objective | 4 | 0.0459041 | quantitative | 4 | 0.9985981 |
| 102 | define | 5 | 0.0245402 | define | 5 | 0.9985977 |
| 102 | medium | 6 | 0.0235229 | quantitative definition | 6 | 0.9985089 |
| 102 | quantitative | 7 | 0.0216013 | price stability | 7 | 0.9980695 |
| 102 | close | 8 | 0.0213752 | harmonise | 8 | 0.9979840 |
| 102 | stability objective | 9 | 0.0194536 | consumer price hicp | 9 | 0.9977196 |
| 102 | aim | 10 | 0.0191145 | stability | 10 | 0.9974528 |
| 102 | price stability objective | 11 | 0.0170798 | objective | 11 | 0.9971032 |
| 102 | consumer | 12 | 0.0141409 | price hicp | 12 | 0.9968435 |
| 102 | medium term | 13 | 0.0131235 | consumer price | 13 | 0.9967580 |
| 102 | hicp | 14 | 0.0125584 | define price | 14 | 0.9967528 |
| 102 | inflation rate | 15 | 0.0125584 | define price stability | 15 | 0.9964463 |
5.100.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.386 | 2.2 the ecb’s definition of price stability to make the treaty mandate operational, the governing council of the ecb has provided a quantitative definition of price stability. price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp) for the euro area as a whole of below 2%. by referring to increases in the hicp it was made clear from the beginning, in 1998, that deflation is excluded from the definition of price stability. the governing council also specified that price stability is to be maintained over the medium term. in the light of past experience, it is clear that the announcement of the quantitative definition of price stability was an extremely valuable element of the ecb’s strategy. first, the ecb’s definition of price stability ha… |
| Christian Noyer: France, Europe, the euro and the ECB | Period_1 | 2002-03-22 | 0.282 | key aspects of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy to achieve its treaty mandate, the ecb has designed a medium term-oriented monetary policy strategy. to enhance clarity, to anchor expectations and to offer a yardstick against which the ecb can be held accountable, the governing council of the ecb provided a numerical definition of price stability as “a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp) for the euro area of below 2%”. this is very close to the objectives of most participating national central banks before the start of stage three of economic and monetary union (emu). the banque de france, for example, in 1998 had defined price stability as consumer price inflation “not exceeding 2%”. the governing council also emphasised that price stability has to … |
| Mr Noyer: Monetary policymaking in the euro area (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 23 Mar 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-03-01 | 0.282 | the phrase “below 2%” clearly delineates the upper bound for the rate of measured inflation in the hicp, which is consistent with price stability. at the same time, the use of the word “increase” in the definition clearly signals that deflation, i.e. prolonged declines in the level of the hicp, would not be deemed consistent with price stability. the main reason for not aiming at a measured inflation rate of zero is what is known as the “measurement bias”, which can exist in consumer price indices. these biases arise mainly from changing spending patterns and quality improvements in those goods and services which are included in the basket used to define a specific price index. such biases cannot always be fully corrected in the construction of price indices. the measurement bias typica… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Key issues for monetary policy - an ECB view | Period_1 | 2004-10-13 | 0.279 | quantitative definition of price stability first, the ecb provided a quantitative definition of price stability - a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices of below 2% over the medium term. we further clarified that in the pursuit of price stability the ecb aims at inflation rates below but close to 2%. this provides a sufficient safety margin against the risk of deflation. these announcements had not only the advantage of anchoring inflation expectations and enhancing the ecb’s transparency and accountability, but were also instrumental in preserving continuity at the time of transition from the previous national currencies to the euro: the euro area was given the very same definition of price stability adopted implicitly or explicitly by the most credible nati… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the European economy and the ECB’s monetary policy concept | Period_1 | 2004-07-20 | 0.274 | the ecb’s definition of price stability in order to make the treaty mandate operational, and to enhance the transparency of the policy framework and thereby the accountability of its monetary policy, the governing council of the ecb has provided a quantitative definition of price stability. price stability has been defined as a year-on-year increase of below 2% in the harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp) for the euro area as a whole. by referring to increases in the hicp it was made clear that deflation is excluded from the definition of price stability. |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s fight against low inflation - reasons and consequences | Period_2 | 2016-04-11 | 0.159 | the ecb’s objective the treaty on the functioning of the european union establishes the ecb’s primary objective as maintaining price stability. but unlike some other central banks, we have not been given a specific numerical inflation target by a legislature or ministry. to enhance accountability, in 1998 the ecb governing council decided that price stability should be defined in quantitative terms, as a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices for the euro area of below 2%, and that it should be maintained over the medium-term. following a thorough evaluation of its monetary policy strategy in 2003, the governing council further clarified that, within this definition of price stability, it aims to maintain inflation rates “below, but close to, 2% over the medium… |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.145 | the arguments in favour of central banks aiming for positive inflation rates with a sufficient buffer away from zero were articulated during our strategy review in 2003. it compensates for possible measurement bias, helps countries rebalance their economies within a monetary union and creates a buffer against deflation, as well as leading to higher nominal interest rates over the medium term. that helps ensure that monetary policy is not forced too often towards the effective lower bound – the level of interest rates at which further cuts do not have the desired positive impact – when faced with shocks that push inflation too low. since 2003, the ecb has used a double-key formulation to set our objective, defining price stability as a year-on-year increase in inflation of “below 2%”, wh… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy - lifting the veil of effectiveness | Period_2 | 2019-12-18 | 0.129 | but until this happens – and the pace will depend a lot on our broader economic policy framework, which i won’t discuss this morning[12] – central banks are likely to have to navigate in a low-growth, low-inflation environment with the risk of repeatedly failing to deliver inflation in line with their aim. monetary policy in a low-inflation environment what, then, can, or should, central banks do in this environment? let me propose four elements for future reflection: how we define price stability, how we treat inflation expectations, how we measure inflation and how we implement monetary policy. some proposals are more far-reaching than others. but all share one aim: to bring monetary policy closer to the people – to dismantle the veil of effectiveness and to foster acceptance of polic… |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy and balance sheet adjustment | Period_2 | 2014-05-28 | 0.126 | the ecb’s policy framework there are clear limits to the leeway that we – central banks – can afford within our mandates. our medium-term price stability objective implies that we cannot stretch our policy horizon forever – even if the economy is undergoing a lengthy deleveraging process. monetary policy needs to act forcefully if and when the adjustment process threatens the fulfilment of our mandate. we should preserve the virtues of constrained discretion: 6 a delicate and fragile blend of opposing attributes of monetary policy-making, which central banks acquired in the form of mandates in the 1990s, and which has served us well since then on our long journey back from the inflation years. let’s not forget that – since the early 1990s when the industrial world eradicated inflation –… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.124 | reaffirming the price stability objective the crisis has of course not altered our price stability mandate, which is defined in primary law, in the treaty. nonetheless, the events of recent years have made it important for the ecb to reaffirm that mandate – specifically, to explain its medium-term orientation and its euro area perspective. furthermore, the governing council will be equally active in responding to medium-term developments in inflation that fall short of our objective as to those that exceed it. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.111 |
will now turn to the treatment of owner-occupied housing for inflation measurement, as requested by this committee. the ecb considers that price stability is best maintained by aiming for two per cent inflation over the medium term, with the harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp) being the appropriate price measure. it is thus of primary importance to the ecb that the hicp appropriately represents the consumption patterns of euro area households. shelter being a primary need, the cost of housing is an issue that is foremost in many people’s minds. this was reflected in our ecb listens events!4! and in your resolution adopted earlier this year.
|
The most representative speeches:
5.101 Topic 103: fiscal; fiscal policy; support; stabilisation; economy
5.101.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | fiscal | 1 | 0.1639700 | fiscal policy | 1 | 0.9988601 |
| 103 | fiscal policy | 2 | 0.0693558 | space | 2 | 0.9985542 |
| 103 | support | 3 | 0.0448040 | generation | 3 | 0.9985104 |
| 103 | stabilisation | 4 | 0.0159407 | fiscal | 4 | 0.9985084 |
| 103 | economy | 5 | 0.0155814 | fiscal space | 5 | 0.9983326 |
| 103 | national | 6 | 0.0128268 | policy mix | 6 | 0.9980701 |
| 103 | space | 7 | 0.0128268 | generation eu | 7 | 0.9980695 |
| 103 | strong | 8 | 0.0125873 | stabilisation | 8 | 0.9976311 |
| 103 | investment | 9 | 0.0122280 | national fiscal | 9 | 0.9970592 |
| 103 | public | 10 | 0.0118687 | structural policy | 10 | 0.9970212 |
| 103 | government | 11 | 0.0111501 | public investment | 11 | 0.9970168 |
| 103 | generation | 12 | 0.0110303 | mix | 12 | 0.9969334 |
| 103 | european | 13 | 0.0107908 | fiscal stance | 13 | 0.9967577 |
| 103 | recovery | 14 | 0.0106710 | fiscal support | 14 | 0.9965317 |
| 103 | eu | 15 | 0.0105513 | coordinate | 15 | 0.9953566 |
5.101.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Stark: Towards a stability-oriented policy framework | Period_1 | 2010-02-26 | 0.135 | fiscal policy for many commentators, the financial crisis has underlined the need for a return of the state in managing macroeconomic developments. of course, together with central bank liquidity support, discretionary government intervention has been key in forestalling a repeat of a 1930s-style depression. however, we are observing a drift in public liabilities that will prove hard to correct with the usual stabilisers. in some countries, this drift actually has nothing to do with the financial crisis. it is rooted in the policy hyper-activism that was already in place before the crisis. and this despite the obvious dangers of an overreactive fiscal stance, which cannot be decided and implemented without long lags. here, fiscal rules, such as the stability and growth pact in the europ… |
| Jürgen Stark: Central banking after the financial crisis | Period_1 | 2011-02-23 | 0.128 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.121 | discretionary use of fiscal policy in addition to providing financial support to the banking sector, euro area governments reacted forcefully to counter the negative impact of the financial turmoil on the real economy. besides the operation of automatic stabilisers, which provide a significant cushion to the euro area economy by way of lower tax revenues and higher spending on unemployment benefits, the discretionary use of fiscal policy helped to mitigate the effects of the global economic downturn. however, fiscal stimulus measures need to remain temporary and be combined with measures that ensure fiscal sustainability over the medium run. this will preserve trust in the sustainability of public finances and support both the recovery and long-term economic growth. |
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.108 | the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus measures also depends on the extent to which private investors respond positively to tax policy, with their investments likely to be more responsive in the case of “temporary” tax breaks, as they provide an incentive to bring forward future investment plans. at the same time, there is a risk that fiscal stimulus measures may crowd out private investment by putting upward pressure on interest rates. as regards the size of the fiscal multiplier, empirical studies (e.g. perotti (2002), blanchard and perotti (2002), imf weo (2008)) show that in the short term (i.e. after one quarter) public spending multipliers are larger than tax multipliers. by contrast, in the long term, revenue measures are associated with higher growth and faster recoveries. these r… |
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.107 | fiscal policy measures let me now turn to the fiscal policy reaction to the economic crisis. fiscal authorities in the euro area have demonstrated their willingness and capacity to act rapidly and in a coordinated manner in exceptional circumstances. it is important to distinguish between measures intended to support the banking sector and fiscal policy measures aimed at stimulating demand. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-03-11 | 0.348 | other european institutions, remain essential to support bank lending conditions and access to financing, in particular for those most affected by the pandemic. to sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is necessary to support economic activity and the robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2 per cent over the medium term. regarding fiscal policies, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance remains critical in view of the sharp contraction in the euro area economy. to this end, support from national fiscal policies should continue given weak demand from firms and households relating to the ongoing pandemic and the associated… |
| Luis de Guindos: Improving macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area | Period_2 | 2019-10-07 | 0.294 | challenges that a sustained low interest rate environment poses for banks. reforming the fiscal framework so there is a role for fiscal policy to play in helping to counter common shocks at the european level. to the extent that member states have created fiscal space, it would therefore be desirable for fiscal policy in the euro area to support business cycle stabilisation more actively. our current assessment is that the fiscal stance is only mildly expansionary at the aggregate level. but the current institutional framework is insufficient to deliver that required stimulus. fiscal policy remains a national responsibility in economic and monetary union (emu), with some common rules applicable to individual countries. in its first incarnation, the stability and growth pact focused almo… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-06-10 | 0.292 | flows and positive base effects. overall, our policy measures, together with the measures adopted by national governments and other european institutions, remain essential to support bank lending conditions and access to financing, in particular for those most affected by the pandemic. to sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is necessary to support economic activity and the robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2 per cent over the medium term. regarding fiscal policies, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance remains crucial, as a premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk weakening the recovery and amplifying th… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-01-21 | 0.269 | the governing council recognises the key role of the next generation eu package and stresses the importance of it becoming operational without delay. it calls on member states to accelerate the ratification process, to finalise their recovery and resilience plans promptly and to deploy the funds for productive public spending, accompanied by productivity-enhancing structural policies. this would allow the next generation eu programme to contribute to a faster, stronger and more uniform recovery and would increase economic resilience and the growth potential of member states’ economies, thereby supporting the effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area. such structural policies are particularly important in addressing long-standing structural and institutional weaknesses and in acc… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2021-01-21 | 0.254 | regarding fiscal policies, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance remains critical, in view of the sharp contraction in the euro area economy. to this end, continued support from national fiscal policies is warranted given weak demand from firms and households relating to the worsening of the pandemic and the intensification of containment measures. at the same time, fiscal measures taken in response to the pandemic emergency should, as much as possible, remain targeted and temporary in nature. the three safety nets endorsed by the european council for workers, businesses and governments provide important funding support. |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.223 | in particular, under the next generation eu (ngeu) programme a european fiscal instrument was created with the necessary resources to support the recovery.[12] the interventions were based on national recovery and resilience plans detailing reform and investment strategies consistent with shared objectives at european level, such as the green and digital transitions.[13] high debt countries, such as italy and spain, obtained european resources amounting, respectively, to 11% and 6% of gdp. this created the basis for a european social contract for exiting the pandemic: eu member states committed to make their economies more competitive in exchange for european funding.[14] in this way, not only would ngeu enhance medium-term growth prospects but it would also contribute to convergence. t… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.199 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Managing policy trade-offs | Period_3 | 2022-04-13 | 0.179 | common fiscal capacity, high debt levels leave the euro area vulnerable to sudden and costly shifts in investor sentiment. all this means that fiscal policy should follow a two-pronged strategy. first, governments should prioritise spending on investments that will raise productivity and potential output, thereby reducing the burden of high legacy debt. a key lesson from the war is that europe needs major public investment in green energy infrastructure and military defence.8 implementing faithfully the structural reforms linked to the recovery and resilience facility will be an important part of this endeavour. increased public investment will at least partly offset the negative output effects stemming from depressed consumer and business confidence. second, governments should provide … |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.177 | effects on other countries. the costs in turn relate to the possibility that european policies fail to reflect the heterogeneity of preferences across member states.[25] theory therefore suggests that the eu should provide for public goods that cannot be offered more effectively or efficiently at the national level, and for which the preferences of citizens are sufficiently homogenous across europe. in my view, such eu public goods do include the investment needs i have just listed. the ensuing call for more fiscal resources on a permanent basis at the european level may lead to further important steps towards the creation of a european fiscal union. in line with the dictum of monnet, the crisis thus offers a possibility to create stronger fiscal capacity at the european level that coul… |
| Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement | Period_3 | 2022-10-17 | 0.176 | fiscal policy remains key to buffering the shock from the war and should continue to provide a lifeline to households and firms facing a steep rise in energy bills. at the same time, fiscal support measures should be temporary and targeted at the most vulnerable households and firms – those who are bearing the brunt of higher energy prices – to limit the risk of fuelling inflationary pressures and to make public spending more efficient. and these measures need to be supported by an accelerated clean energy transition, including through additional public investment. with monetary policy normalising, the focus of fiscal policy will need to shift progressively towards measures that preserve debt sustainability without endangering the recovery in the medium term. |
The most representative speeches:
5.102 Topic 104: role; play; level; key; good
5.102.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | role | 1 | 0.1940721 | role | 1 | 0.9999124 |
| 104 | play | 2 | 0.1160313 | play | 2 | 0.9999124 |
| 104 | level | 3 | 0.0486106 | key role | 3 | 0.9986849 |
| 104 | key | 4 | 0.0423351 | crucial | 4 | 0.9983353 |
| 104 | good | 5 | 0.0312324 | key | 5 | 0.9982463 |
| 104 | include | 6 | 0.0281751 | determine | 6 | 0.9978972 |
| 104 | contribute | 7 | 0.0223824 | crucial role | 7 | 0.9978953 |
| 104 | provide | 8 | 0.0220606 | central role | 8 | 0.9975431 |
| 104 | crucial | 9 | 0.0177161 | major | 9 | 0.9974583 |
| 104 | major | 10 | 0.0154633 | include | 10 | 0.9974565 |
| 104 | determine | 11 | 0.0144979 | active | 11 | 0.9973701 |
| 104 | account | 12 | 0.0136933 | contribute | 12 | 0.9971933 |
| 104 | factor | 13 | 0.0117624 | role play | 13 | 0.9970168 |
| 104 | key role | 14 | 0.0104752 | mind | 14 | 0.9963639 |
| 104 | broad | 15 | 0.0093488 | shape | 15 | 0.9963192 |
5.102.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The role of money in the conduct of monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-11-16 | 0.111 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.075 | movements in various measures of economic slack have played a fairly modest role in the inflation process in the euro area in recent years. 6 the same phillips curve analysis suggests that changes in inflation expectations play a major role in shaping inflation developments, anchoring inflation and potentially mitigating the harmful outcomes resulting from temporary shocks. in such a setting, expectations pin down the level of inflation in the long run, while changes in the output gap lead to short-run accelerations or decelerations of inflation around that level. there are many caveats to using a phillips curve framework to relate inflation developments to economic slack – for instance, measures of both inflation expectations and the output gap are subject to considerable uncertainty, … |
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.074 | iii.2. expectations another priority in our research agenda is to enhance our understanding of the way expectations are formed by different agents in the economy, and how they can be managed successfully so as to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. inflation expectations play a crucial role in determining the impact of monetary policy on the economy and in shaping the dynamic response of prices and output to shocks. forecasts of future price developments and policy simulations based on macroeconometric models depend critically on the modelling of expectations. by now it is widely accepted that expectations should, by and large, be formed “rationally” in the sense that they should take into account all relevant available information concerning the structure and functioning of t… |
| Press Conference - introductory statement (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 19 Oct 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-10-19 | 0.073 | there are indeed challenges to be taken up by means of appropriate and determined action, but there are good reasons for remaining confident. monetary policy will ensure that risks stemming from import price developments will not translate into more permanent inflationary tendencies, thereby also helping to preserve steady gdp and employment growth in the medium term. governments have increasingly come to recognise the benefits of sound public finances and adequate policies over the long term so as not to overburden future generations. however, continued determination is required. while overall budget positions have improved significantly, this has been helped considerably by the relatively low level of interest rates and the strong upturn in growth. these favourable conditions should b… |
| Otmar Issing: Evaluation of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy | Period_1 | 2003-07-27 | 0.073 | how was the evaluation conducted? accordingly, we went through several steps. the first was to revisit all the technical issues. all aspects of the strategy were scrutinized, going through a lively internal debate and resulting in a series of technical studies now available on our web site. the key role here was played by the staff of the ecb and of the national central banks, the latter contributing through the eurosystem monetary policy committee. use was made of research accumulated during the recent years, in the ecb and outside, on a number of issues relevant for the strategy, such as the transmission of monetary policy, the determinants of prices, the leading indicator properties of money, credit and other key indicators, and the like. the second step was to reflect on how the str… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.085 | finally, as i have outlined today, our monetary policy decisions are driven by our assessment of the macroeconomic and financial environment. as noted in last week’s introductory statement, other policy pillars play a critical role in determining the long-term and short-term prospects for the euro area economy. growth-enhancing institutional and structural reforms and a more growth-friendly composition of public finances can play important roles in boosting the long-run potential of the euro area economy. at the cyclical level, fiscal policy can contain the impact of adverse shocks through the operation of automatic stabilisers and, where feasible and effective, through the timing of discretionary fiscal measures. all else being equal, the more fiscal policy contributes to boosting long… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the euro area problem | Period_2 | 2015-11-25 | 0.071 | ladies and gentlemen, i am honoured by mr maleki’s invitation to speak at the opening conference of the 18th euro finance week. in my remarks today i would like to characterise the current economic situation in the euro area. furthermore, i will address the roles that monetary policy, supply-side reforms and fiscal policies have played – and can play in the future – in shaping this situation. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_2 | 2020-06-09 | 0.070 | the measures considered and determining whether alternative instruments might be more efficient in attaining the objective. in my first hearing before this committee in september 2019, i referred to this assessment as a “cost-benefit analysis”. more generally, the ecb continually monitors the proportionality of its instruments. such assessments are conducted regularly, as reflected in the monetary policy accounts, in speeches, and not least in the regular exchanges with the european parliament such as the one today. the ecb’s strategy review will also play an important part in these ongoing efforts for instance, consider our decision to expand the volume of the pepp: on the basis of solid analysis, we determined that asset purchases are a particularly effective tool in the current envir… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Monetary policy - end of history? | Period_2 | 2018-07-27 | 0.068 | about creating equal opportunities for everyone. in this context, education and equal access to it should be at the top of the to-do list of any government. so, a lot remains to be done, not just on equality but on growth in general. after all, growth also plays a big role in fighting inequality. and when it comes to long-term growth, research shows that the quality of institutions plays a major role. 8 at the same time, the quality of institutions differs between countries. so, some countries have scope to improve judicial systems, public administration and insolvency regimes. this would make their economies more resilient and help them to grow. and i’m not just referring to institutions at the national level. european institutions are not free of deficiencies either. they too need to … |
| Yves Mersch: Asset price inflation and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2020-01-28 | 0.066 | the limits of macroprudential policy the risks to asset prices from loose monetary policy have brought macroprudential policies into sharper focus. these policies are exercised at the national level by the relevant competent authority where central banks are supposed to play a leading role. the idea here is that macroprudential policies can offset the build-up of risk, leading to an overall optimal policy mix. certainly, macroprudential policies can be effective in restraining increases in residential property prices, but they are no panacea. |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.060 |
|
| Philip R Lane: Inflation in the near-term and the medium-term | Period_3 | 2022-02-18 | 0.059 | moving from near-term to medium-term inflation dynamics, there is a clear potential linkage: if currently-high inflation causes a rethink about the likely level of medium-term inflation, a persistent shift in inflation expectations can play a significant role in determining inflation dynamics. there are several mechanisms at work here. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.055 | the second source of uncertainty | would like to discuss today relates to potential behavioural changes induced by the pandemic. microeconomic rigidities such as those stemming from wage- and price-setting behaviour have profound implications for the transmission of monetary policy. collectively, these rigidities play a crucial but subtle role in determining the location and slope of the phillips curve — a reduced form description of how changes in aggregate demand put pressure on inflation. this relationship can arise from underlying structural relations in a wide class of state-of-the- art sticky price models, as one paper at this conference will show.!13! |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.053 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox and the effective lower bound | Period_3 | 2021-11-16 | 0.053 | “durably for the rest of the projection horizon.” the third condition is that the governing council “judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term.” let me highlight today two key features of this rate forward guidance. first, requiring that we see inflation reaching two per cent not only “well ahead of the end of our projection horizon” but also “durably for the rest of the projection horizon” ensures that interest rate policy will not react to inflation shocks that are expected to fade away before the end of our projection horizon. second, the condition that “realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at t… |
The most representative speeches:
5.103 Topic 105: instrument; mandate; tool; unconventional; measure
5.103.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | instrument | 1 | 0.1040561 | unconventional | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 105 | mandate | 2 | 0.0521684 | policy instrument | 2 | 0.9991239 |
| 105 | tool | 3 | 0.0504299 | tool | 3 | 0.9990359 |
| 105 | unconventional | 4 | 0.0449470 | stability mandate | 4 | 0.9990356 |
| 105 | measure | 5 | 0.0342485 | instrument | 5 | 0.9988597 |
| 105 | policy instrument | 6 | 0.0222127 | unconventional measure | 6 | 0.9987729 |
| 105 | effective | 7 | 0.0206079 | conventional | 7 | 0.9985105 |
| 105 | conventional | 8 | 0.0186020 | unconventional monetary | 8 | 0.9984654 |
| 105 | objective | 9 | 0.0175321 | price stability mandate | 9 | 0.9984222 |
| 105 | limit | 10 | 0.0175321 | unconventional monetary policy | 10 | 0.9978962 |
| 105 | stability mandate | 11 | 0.0155262 | mandate | 11 | 0.9977177 |
| 105 | unconventional measure | 12 | 0.0151250 | monetary policy instrument | 12 | 0.9975454 |
| 105 | deliver | 13 | 0.0149912 | policy tool | 13 | 0.9971505 |
| 105 | achieve | 14 | 0.0147238 | deploy | 14 | 0.9968455 |
| 105 | price stability mandate | 15 | 0.0143226 | court | 15 | 0.9962733 |
5.103.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: China and the European Union - global economic challenges and policy responses | Period_1 | 2008-09-17 | 0.120 | notable exception is china which continues to experience robust growth, only moderately lower than the growth of 11.5% recorded in 2007. to address these multiple challenges, policy instruments must be used in an effective and consistent way. effectiveness requires to choose the appropriate policy instrument that can materially contribute to the achievement of an objective in a sustained manner. consistency requires using the available instruments in a way that is mutually reinforcing. the effective and consistent use of policy instruments should produce outcomes that have a durable overall positive impact on economic performance. let me elaborate on these propositions by examining the appropriate policy responses to the global economic challenges we face in the euro area and in china, … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Asset price bubbles and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-06-14 | 0.073 | methodological discussion has not yet converged. and finally, central banks’ lack sufficient control of asset prices. in the long run asset prices are driven by fundamental factors and not monetary policy. pricking asset price bubbles the focus of serious academic debate has moved away from this approach more recently, but the view that central banks should act decidedly against suspected asset price bubbles occasionally surfaces among market observers. the roots of this position can be traced back to the so-called “liquidationist” view, which was widely entertained by mainstream economists in the context of the heated debate over the stock market boom of the 1920s in the us. the view had some prominent advocates within the board of governors of the federal reserve system who substantia… |
| Lucas Papademos: China and the European Union - global economic challenges and policy responses | Period_1 | 2008-09-17 | 0.067 | these two issues are intimately linked because the sustainability of growth depends on establishing an environment of low inflation, of price stability. moreover, to “maintain the stability of the value of the currency and thereby promote economic growth” requires the preservation of domestic price level stability. to secure these goals, monetary policy has to be fully geared towards achieving the internal price stability objective, as is the case in the euro area. but to successfully achieve price stability requires allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility, since pegging the exchange rate vis-à-vis another currency or a basket or currencies, or tightly managing the exchange rate, effectively limits the room of manoeuvre for monetary policy. these arguments underscore the importan… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: The challenges facing monetary policy | Period_1 | 2011-01-27 | 0.046 | introduction from the start of the crisis in summer 2007, monetary policy has faced a number of challenges, linked particularly to the interaction between the development of the real economy and the turbulence in the financial markets. this has forced central banks to operate not only by way of conventional measures, in particular the key interest rate at which liquidity is injected into the system, but also via unconventional measures, designed to bypass the malfunctioning that has arisen in the financial system. the combination of these measures depends on the intensity of the crisis and on the ways it has developed in both the real and financial world. at a time of general uncertainty, central banks have had not only to try to anticipate events but also to use a more efficient combin… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Could monetary policy have helped prevent the financial crisis? | Period_1 | 2010-04-13 | 0.045 |
|
| Mario Draghi: Delivering a symmetric mandate with asymmetric tools - monetary policy in a context of low interest rates | Period_2 | 2016-06-08 | 0.219 | to the lower bound. in those conditions, any perception that the central bank might tolerate persistent downward inflation misses would be especially costly. it would lead first of all to a dis-anchoring of inflation expectations, which would cause real yields to rise mechanically. this would be contractionary and could not be offset by lowering policy rates even further. and with fixed nominal debts, lower inflation would trigger redistribution from borrowers to creditors, which would prolong the debt overhang and exacerbate the contraction due to the different propensities to consume and invest of those two groups. this is not an argument for raising inflation targets, as that would only create redistribution in the other direction. but it is an argument for central banks to fulfil th… |
| Mario Draghi: Global and domestic inflation | Period_2 | 2015-12-08 | 0.194 | 2017 and the decision to re-invest the principal payments on maturing securities for as long as necessary will add eur 680 billion – some 6.5% of the euro area gdp – in liquidity to the system by 2019, relative to the situation that would have prevailed under previous policies. this will strengthen our forward guidance on interest rates and ensure that liquidity will remain very supportive in the long term. there was very broad support among members of the council for recalibrating our instruments to put inflation trends back on the path towards 2% that we envisaged when we launched our purchase programme. there was also very broad agreement with the extent of the recalibration, which was based on technical work carried out by the staff of the whole eurosystem in our committees. the ana… |
| Yves Mersch: Interview in Wall Street Journal | Period_2 | 2016-02-03 | 0.184 | is unconventional monetary policy becoming conventional? unconventional measures play an important role. they have been effective, but in a specific circumstance of a very prolonged recessionary and deflationary environment. i do not consider that this is the new normal. if you ask me about secular stagnation, it’s a theory that we obviously take very seriously. but to say we accept it as the new normal would not be in line with what the ecb-president has said at his last press conference: “we continue to fight.” normally you don’t fight the normal, you fight the abnormal. |
| Mario Draghi: The European Central Bank’s recent monetary policy measures - effectiveness and challenges | Period_2 | 2015-05-19 | 0.175 | ladies and gentlemen, over the past year the ecb has taken a series of major monetary policy measures, culminating in our decision in january this year to expand our asset purchases towards public sector securities. while the aim of these measures is the same as it has always been – maintaining price stability over the medium-term – their form is unprecedented for our central bank. and as such our policy decisions have become more complex in two key ways. first, as interest rates have reached their effective lower bound in the euro area, we have become more constrained in our ability to deploy conventional monetary policy tools. this has required us to develop new instruments to achieve the same results. second, because the use of these new instruments can have different consequences th… |
| Yves Mersch: Monetary policy in the euro area - scope, principles and limits | Period_2 | 2016-06-24 | 0.164 | our recent monetary policy measures respect the law since the onset of the crisis, however, we have had to adopt new, unconventional tools to fulfil our mandate – and this has naturally brought the question of the scope and limits of monetary policy more to the fore. clearly, restricting ourselves only to the instruments used in normal times would have been a breach of our mandate. it could have had disastrous consequences for the euro area economy, and threatened our ability to achieve price stability. but that does not imply the reverse – i.e. that every conceivable tool would have been justified. 2 article 5 (4), treaty on european union. 3 article 127.1, tfeu. |
| Christine Lagarde: Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area | Period_3 | 2022-06-29 | 0.109 | governing council. the new instrument will have to be effective, while being proportionate and containing sufficient safeguards to preserve the impetus of member states towards a sound fiscal policy. this decision lies squarely within the ecb’s tradition. in the past, the ecb has made use of separate instruments to target inflation and to preserve the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. measures to preserve transmission could be used at any level of interest rates – so long as they were designed not to interfere with the monetary policy stance. at times when inflation fell too low, it made sense to shift from “separation” to “combination” so that all tools reinforced the required policy easing. that is why, for example, we linked asset purchases tightly to forward… |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.103 | police had exceeded their mandate. to put it simply: the ruling made it clear that the police were only responsible for public security, and not for safeguarding aesthetic interests. the verdict signified an important step in the development of modern societies. acknowledging that their actions intrude on the lives of citizens, public sector authorities began limiting their actions to what is strictly necessary to achieve the established objectives. since then, proportionality has evolved to become a fundamental principle in many legal systems. the proportionality principle is a cornerstone of the institutional structure of the european union, laid down in article 5 of the treaty on the european union. and all its institutions are bound by it in the pursuit of their respective mandates…. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.103 | in terms of policy instruments, there is a clear hierarchy. if the economy is not in the shadow of the effective lower bound and under non-stressed conditions, the set of policy interest rates is sufficient to deliver the inflation target. in particular, away from the effective lower bound, policy rates can be adjusted in either direction in response to upside or downside risks to the inflation target. however, in recognition of the effective lower bound on policy rates, the governing council can also employ forward guidance, asset purchases and longer-term refinancing operations, as appropriate. the governing council will continue to respond flexibly to new challenges as these arise and consider, as needed, new policy instruments in the pursuit of its price stability objective. 1. thes… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.080 | normal does not mean conventional third, normalisation does not imply adjusting unconventional instruments more rapidly than conventional ones. in the review of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy that we completed last year, we were clear that both types of instrument are essential and permanent components of our toolkit. what matters is finding the combination of tools to deliver the necessary policy stance in the most effective and proportionate way. in the ecb’s case, we currently have three main levers that we can, in principle, use to adjust policy. the first is interest rates, which have a greater influence on the short and medium-term segments of the risk-free yield curve. the second is asset purchases, which have a greater influence on the longer end of the yield curve and risk … |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.072 | lagarde: to your first point, that helps me to yet again come back to tpi, because in a monetary union there is an inherent risk, particularly the monetary union that we have here in the euro area, there’s an inherent risk that a large shock can create fragmentation risks, and that can lead to self-fulfilling market dynamics that are not warranted. it matters for the singleness of our monetary policy in our monetary union. , but those impediments can have different sources, and that is the reason why we have several tools. as i said earlier on, we have the flexible reinvestment of pepp, which has been deployed, and is currently operational. we have omt, which was decided back then for another unwarranted, disorderly market dynamic, but having to do with more country-specific matters, an… |
The most representative speeches:
5.104 Topic 106: risk; uncertainty; downside; outlook; downside risk
5.104.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | risk | 1 | 0.2556355 | downside | 1 | 0.9996496 |
| 106 | uncertainty | 2 | 0.0917056 | downside risk | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 106 | downside | 3 | 0.0409621 | surround | 3 | 0.9992991 |
| 106 | outlook | 4 | 0.0405540 | uncertainty | 4 | 0.9991234 |
| 106 | downside risk | 5 | 0.0310311 | risk | 5 | 0.9990353 |
| 106 | surround | 6 | 0.0234127 | uncertainty surround | 6 | 0.9988597 |
| 106 | relate | 7 | 0.0209640 | materialise | 7 | 0.9982040 |
| 106 | economy | 8 | 0.0206919 | heighten | 8 | 0.9982034 |
| 106 | time | 9 | 0.0201477 | economic outlook | 9 | 0.9979411 |
| 106 | remain | 10 | 0.0152502 | outlook | 10 | 0.9977190 |
| 106 | economic outlook | 11 | 0.0142980 | scenario | 11 | 0.9973714 |
| 106 | materialise | 12 | 0.0142980 | tail | 12 | 0.9972818 |
| 106 | scenario | 13 | 0.0141619 | heighten uncertainty | 13 | 0.9972806 |
| 106 | uncertainty surround | 14 | 0.0137538 | tail risk | 14 | 0.9967519 |
| 106 | view | 15 | 0.0117132 | considerable | 15 | 0.9966707 |
5.104.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.098 | with those of the central bank. 2 however, at a practical level, there are serious concerns about the feasibility and desirability of announcing a specific likely future path of policy rates. 3 in a world of uncertainty – and the current period of heightened uncertainty and financial market volatility offers a characteristic example – providing markets with a likely future path of policy rates, particularly beyond the short term, may entail a number of risks that may ultimately undermine the initial intention to further reduce financial market and aggregate output volatility. let me highlight some factors and risks that raise doubts about the feasibility and desirability of announcing, as a general rule, the likely future path of policy rates: • the first factor is the uncertainty faced… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.091 | you said there were no monetary risks of inflation at the moment. can we infer from today’s decision that there were monetary risks of deflation or is it purely a growth-oriented decision that you have taken today? duisenberg: no, we also see no risks of deflation emerging. we see that inflation has now remained, on a euro area-wide basis, constant at a rate of 0.8% four months in a row up to now. we see some risks on the upside, i.e. mainly the impact of rising energy prices, but that is by definition, as it was when it was on the downside, a temporary factor. we see some risks deriving from some wage settlements here and there in europe, those are the upside risks. we see some downside risks from a rather subdued outlook for general economic development in the entire euro area. but as… |
| Lucas Papademos: The adoption of the euro and economic performance in Monetary Union | Period_1 | 2007-11-28 | 0.087 |
|
| Jürgen Stark: Economic prospects and the role of monetary policy in the current situation | Period_1 | 2009-03-13 | 0.080 | indicates that medium-term inflation expectations in the euro area are solidly anchored at levels consistent with the aim of the governing council of keeping inflation at rate of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. such a firm anchoring represents the strongest and most reassuring safeguard against any risk of a downward spiral of inflation and inflation expectations. the fact that we have a clear mandate and a clear definition of price stability is helpful in anchoring inflation expectations. as in the case of growth, a considerable degree of uncertainty surrounds the inflation projections of the ecb staff. risks to these projections are broadly balanced. they relate in particular to the risks to the outlook for economic activity as well as to risks to commodity prices. |
| Lucas Papademos: Interview with Financial Times and Financial Times Deutschland | Period_1 | 2005-12-21 | 0.072 | will the ecb raise interest rates again in coming months? the change in the ecb’s monetary policy stance in early december was both necessary and prudent. it was necessary in order to preserve price stability over the medium term in view of several upside risks to price stability that had been identified and in order to send a clear signal that the ecb is determined to continue pursuing a credible policy that will preserve price stability over the medium term and continue to anchor inflation expectations to price stability. it was prudent to act promptly in view of increased upside risks, taking into account the long lags involved between a change in monetary policy and its effects on price developments. it was also prudent to decide on a moderate change in the stance, taking into accou… |
| Fabio Panetta: Asymmetric risks, asymmetric reaction - monetary policy in the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-09-22 | 0.147 | the second element of a forward-looking policy response relates to how we assess and react to the balance of risks. in this respect, the governing council’s view is that the risks to growth are currently on the downside. this expression worries me more today – given the sheer size of the downside risks we face – than it would in less extreme times.[3] moreover, given the disinflationary nature of the covid-19 shock,[4] the low inflation expectations and the current levels of spare capacity, i consider a surge of inflation in the medium term above our aim just a remote possibility. as an example, even in a very benign scenario such as the “mild” scenario in the latest ecb staff projections – which assumes a rapid evaporation of the pandemic – inflation would reach 1.8% in 2022. faced wit… |
| Philip R Lane: Q&A with Reuters | Period_2 | 2019-10-01 | 0.111 | below the target, when you already have done a lot of accommodation, it is important, not to react to every little blip in the data. but when you see a significant deviation from the target it’s important to respond, and that’s what we’ve done. thank you for laying out the context. so eurozone data continue to be skewed to the downside, particularly in germany, where there seems to be a risk that this broad industrial weakness could be slipping into services. how significant is that? is there a case to be made that germany is already in recession? so let me make two points about that. one, germany of course is very much an anchor country for the euro area, but germany has a really unusual economic structure. it is not representative of the wider euro area because it’s such a manufacturi… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.108 | as a result of continued global uncertainties and their impact on confidence, the short-term growth outlook has been revised down in the latest ecb staff macroeconomic projections. real gdp growth is now projected to be 1.1 percent in 2019, 1.2 percent in 2020 and 1.4 percent in 2021. compared with the june eurosystem staff projections, growth for this year was revised down by 0.1 percentage points, and for next year by 0.2 percentage points. notwithstanding the downward revisions to the growth outlook, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. furthermore, i would characterise the distribution of risks as bimodal. in one scenario, global trade tensions and brexit could be resolved positively, while in another scenario, trade-related uncertainty could linger and risks associa… |
| Fabio Panetta: Asymmetric risks, asymmetric reaction - monetary policy in the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-09-22 | 0.107 | conclusion let me conclude. our monetary policy response to the pandemic has removed adverse tail risks, preserved very accommodative financial conditions in all parts of the euro area and leveraged complementarity with other policies. but the macroeconomic situation remains fragile and uncertain and the projected inflation path is still clearly short of our aim. our policy must therefore remain forward-looking in terms of how we evaluate and recalibrate the amount of policy support needed, and how we assess and react to the balance of risks. all macroeconomic policies need to consider the horizon of their measures. i am now looking forward to hearing your views. [1] altavilla, c., barbiero, f., boucinha, m. and burlon, l. (2020), “ the great lockdown: pandemic response policies and b… |
| Peter Praet: Interview in Handelsblatt | Period_2 | 2018-11-23 | 0.096 | peter praet: interview in handelsblatt interview with mr peter praet, member of the executive board of the european central bank, in handelsblatt, conducted by mr jan mallien and mr frank wiebe on 19 november 2018 and published on 23 november 2018. * * * mr praet, economic sentiment indicators have recently fallen steeply and markets are increasingly nervous. how concerned are you about the euro area economy? growth in the euro area is normalising. we shouldn’t forget that it was exceptionally high over the past two years. that was mainly due to the strength of the export sector. following the turbulence in financial markets in china in mid-2015, central banks and fiscal authorities around the world conducted expansionary policies, and this supported trade. the momentum from exports has… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.120 | risk assessment risks relating to the pandemic have declined but the war continues to be a significant downside risk to growth. in particular, a major risk would be a further disruption in the energy supply to the euro area, as reflected in the downside scenario included in the staff projections. furthermore, if the war were to escalate, economic sentiment could worsen, supply-side constraints could increase, and energy and food costs could remain persistently higher than expected. the risks surrounding inflation are primarily on the upside. the risks to the medium-term inflation outlook include a durable worsening of the production capacity of our economy, persistently high energy and food prices, inflation expectations rising above our target and higher than anticipated wage rises. ho… |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-09-08 | 0.105 | risk assessment in the context of the slowing global economy, risks to growth are primarily on the downside, in particular in the near term. as reflected in the downside scenario in the staff projections, a long-lasting war in ukraine remains a significant risk to growth, especially if firms and households faced rationing of energy supplies. in such a situation, confidence could deteriorate further and supply-side constraints could worsen again. energy and food costs could also remain persistently higher than expected. a further deterioration in the global economic outlook could be an additional drag on euro area external demand. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.096 | notably, the current estimates are well below the unconditional estimate which reflects average tail risks over a long horizon. an analysis of the underlying drivers suggests that the intensification of the downside risks to real gdp growth can be traced back predominantly to heightened financial and geopolitical risk, a bleaker macroeconomic outlook, and some deterioration in credit and financial conditions. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-12-20 | 0.094 | risk assessment risks to the economic growth outlook are on the downside, especially in the near term. the war against ukraine remains a significant downside risk to the economy. energy and food costs could also remain persistently higher than expected. there could be an additional drag on growth in the euro area if the world economy were to weaken more sharply than we expect. |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.085 | historical lows.[13] and financial and credit indicators also point to significant downside risks to gdp growth (chart 4).[14] downside risks to euro area real gdp growth lower tail of the distribution of real gdp growth forecasts for q1 and q3 2023 based on “gdp-at-risk” models (quarter-on-quarter change in percentage points) |
The most representative speeches:
5.105 Topic 107: yield; risk; curve; market; premia
5.105.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | yield | 1 | 0.0600888 | premia | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 107 | risk | 2 | 0.0485927 | yield curve | 2 | 0.9993866 |
| 107 | curve | 3 | 0.0445134 | premium | 3 | 0.9992988 |
| 107 | market | 4 | 0.0322756 | risk premia | 4 | 0.9985979 |
| 107 | premia | 5 | 0.0315339 | yield | 5 | 0.9982447 |
| 107 | yield curve | 6 | 0.0309159 | inflation risk | 6 | 0.9978093 |
| 107 | investor | 7 | 0.0239935 | term premium | 7 | 0.9976751 |
| 107 | premium | 8 | 0.0220156 | rebalance | 8 | 0.9974591 |
| 107 | portfolio | 9 | 0.0217684 | term premia | 9 | 0.9974559 |
| 107 | channel | 10 | 0.0209031 | curve | 10 | 0.9973664 |
| 107 | asset | 11 | 0.0196670 | portfolio | 11 | 0.9971945 |
| 107 | risk premia | 12 | 0.0157113 | duration | 12 | 0.9970211 |
| 107 | expect | 13 | 0.0155877 | investor | 13 | 0.9969295 |
| 107 | component | 14 | 0.0142280 | term structure | 14 | 0.9966264 |
| 107 | maturity | 15 | 0.0139807 | portfolio rebalance | 15 | 0.9961001 |
5.105.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.238 | 7 see ejsing, j., j.a. garcia and t. werner (2007) “the term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality”, ecb working paper no 830; gurkaynak, r., b. sack and j. wright (2009), “the tips yield curve and inflation compensation”, american economics journal: macroeconomics, forthcoming.” 8 other inflation derivatives allow investors to hedge against inflation rates exceeding certain threshold (inflation cap) or being below a certain level (inflation floor) and thereby convey information about the value of the perceived risk of hitting those thresholds by estimating option-implied densities and measures of perceived market uncertainty. since the lowest maturity of caps and floors are two years (in some cases three years), the volatility is an average of the… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy and private expectations | Period_1 | 2005-02-28 | 0.099 | union. this interest rate move was a strong sign of determination. the policy message was reinforced through a consistent communication campaign which the central banks concerned, together with the european monetary institute, launched in the last few months of the year to explain the meaning of their action. the essence of the message was the following. the assumption made by some observers and by part of the market literature, according to which the entry interest rates in the euro on 1 january 1999 would be some kind of average of the interest rates of the composing currencies was totally wrong. on the contrary, the very construction of the euro was based on total continuity with the most credible national currencies. the concept of the transition was based upon “benchmarking”, namel… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Monetary policy and private expectations | Period_1 | 2005-02-28 | 0.084 | direct measures of inflation expectations in the euro area are provided by a number of surveys. these are regularly analysed in the ecb’s monthly bulletin. one comes from the ecb survey of professional forecasters. this is a quarterly survey conducted by the ecb. it asks experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the european union to forecast euro area inflation up to five years ahead. importantly, survey respondents also provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts in the form of ranges. the dispersion and asymmetry around the mean provide useful information about shifts in inflation expectations that might be in the pipeline. another measure of inflation expectations is provided by the survey conducted by consensus… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Careful with (the D) words! | Period_1 | 2008-11-27 | 0.081 | strengthening the solvency situation of the banking system. third, the exhaustion of all ammunitions earlier in the process, when there is no evidence of a deflationary shock, reduces the margin of manoeuvre in case other adverse shocks occur. for instance, if foreign exchange markets do not display a major appreciation of the exchange rate, which in the past has always been associated with deflation, monetary policy should maintain some room to counter such undesired development. finally, if deflation risks eventually subside, too loose a monetary policy stance can fuel excessive risk taking, which would give rise to a new asset bubble that would lead down the road to even greater problems. let me spend a few words on this objection. the counter argument is that the real problem of low… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Inflation and deflation risks - how to recognise them? How to avoid them? | Period_1 | 2009-07-01 | 0.078 | indicates (slide 12). all survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations stood at 1.9% in april. financial instruments are the third way of obtaining information about market participants’ inflation expectations. they also contain information about inflation risks, since investors not only demand compensation for the level of expected inflation but also for bearing the risk associated with the inflation outlook. in practice, yields on inflation-linked bonds are used as a basis to derive indicators of inflation expectations. 7 however, since the beginning of the crisis, bond markets have been exposed to significant disturbances that have made the measurement of inflation expectations and the associated risks more difficult than usual. thus, it is useful to complement this me… |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy measures | Period_2 | 2017-10-03 | 0.322 | indications coming from models and past empirical regularities with its own judgement. in engaging in this layer of judgemental deliberations, our intent is to come to a firm assessment of the balance between the likely efficacy of our measures and their potential costs in term of financial distortions. how do our main policy instruments work? ensuring an appropriate interest rate environment throughout the yield curve is instrumental in fostering the financing conditions that are most conducive to our objective. a central bank can seek to influence the level and shape of the yield curve by acting on two components of the long- term interest rates: the expectations component and the term premium. the expectations component reflects market expectations of the future path of the policy-co… |
| Peter Praet: Opening remarks - “Money markets, monetary policy implementation and central bank balance sheets” | Period_2 | 2017-11-06 | 0.304 | the third dimension is optionality: retaining the option to re-calibrate the app if warranted is consistent with the forward guidance on the app. key channels of the app there are two key channels through which the app operates. the first is the extraction of duration risk, which propagates through portfolio rebalancing. the second key channel is the signalling channel on interest rates. the duration risk channel and the signalling channel correspond to the two components of the long-term interest rates through which a central bank can seek to influence the level and shape of the yield curve: the expectations component and the term premium. how does the app influence the term premium? by accumulating a portfolio of long-duration assets, the central bank extracts duration risk from priva… |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment | Period_2 | 2018-06-19 | 0.301 | 1 i would like to thank john hutchinson for his support in preparing this speech. 2 expected inflation can be further decomposed into “risk neutral” inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. 3 for the united states such analysis can be undertaken from the late 1990s when treasury inflation-protected securities became available, while inflation swaps started being traded quite a bit later. see, for example, abrahams, m., adrian, t., crump, r. k., moench, e. and yu, r., (2016), “decomposing real and nominal yield curves”, journal of monetary economics, volume 84, december, pp. 182–200. in the euro area, these decompositions can also be undertaken using model-based analysis, albeit only over a shorter time period due to the later availability of suitable inflation-linked instrument… |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability with unconventional monetary policy measures | Period_2 | 2017-10-03 | 0.300 | desired compensation for hedging will decrease, which will drive down the term premium and the whole yield curve. this same mechanism will spur propagation. duration extraction is the catalyst for the portfolio rebalancing channel, which is the chief mechanism by which easing through quantitative interventions propagates through the entire economy. in practice, distinguishing between the effects of the app and of forward guidance on the two components of long-term interest rates is less straightforward. the credibility of promises to follow a certain course of action for setting the policy rates in the future is almost certainly enhanced by the asset purchase programmes today, as these purchases are a concrete demonstration of a desire to provide additional stimulus. in other words, the… |
| Philip R Lane: Reflections on monetary policy | Period_2 | 2019-09-16 | 0.276 | reflections on monetary policy page 14 of 18 fourth, new net purchases and a prolonged reinvestment horizon mitigate the passive tightening in the monetary policy stance that happens mechanically as the app portfolio ages. one of the channels through which asset purchases work is the duration channel. by absorbing duration risk from the market, the app reduces the risk compensation required by investors, which puts downward pressure on term premia and yields. as the bonds we hold in our portfolio come closer to maturing, however, the overall amount of duration risk that is tied up in our portfolio progressively falls. as a result, the downward impact on risk premia – and thereby on long-term interest rates – resulting from the duration channel weakens over time. adding to the stock of a… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.232 |
|
| Isabel Schnabel: Asset purchases – from crisis to recovery | Period_3 | 2021-09-23 | 0.217 | pepp prevented the collapse of the financial system. protecting the monetary policy stance through duration extraction as the dust of the initial shock settled, the purpose of the pepp shifted from market stabilisation to ensuring an appropriate monetary policy stance. in june 2020, our staff projections suggested that inflation would be well below our target in the medium term, and noticeably below the pre- pandemic level. at that point, portfolio rebalancing became the main transmission channel of our asset purchases. although we could afford to reduce our monthly emergency interventions over the second half of 2020 by 45% compared with their peak in light of calmer financial markets, exceptionally large public and private duration supply in response to the pandemic was a recurring so… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.198 |
|
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.190 | the transmission channels of monetary policy let me start by outlining the main transmission channels of monetary policy. conceptually, the monetary policy transmission process can be divided into upstream stages of transmission and downstream effects.[3] the upstream stages include our steering of the short-term money market conditions and how these propagate to the risk-free and sovereign yield curves (mainly through expectations of the future path of policy rates). the downstream effects are captured by the adjustments in the cost and volume of external finance available to the firms and households that are dependent on banks for access to credit. i will begin with the upstream stages of the transmission mechanism and then turn to the downstream effects. monetary policy works through… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.171 | normal does not mean conventional third, normalisation does not imply adjusting unconventional instruments more rapidly than conventional ones. in the review of the ecb’s monetary policy strategy that we completed last year, we were clear that both types of instrument are essential and permanent components of our toolkit. what matters is finding the combination of tools to deliver the necessary policy stance in the most effective and proportionate way. in the ecb’s case, we currently have three main levers that we can, in principle, use to adjust policy. the first is interest rates, which have a greater influence on the short and medium-term segments of the risk-free yield curve. the second is asset purchases, which have a greater influence on the longer end of the yield curve and risk … |
The most representative speeches:
5.106 Topic 108: pressure; inflationary; inflationary pressure; time; downward
5.106.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | pressure | 1 | 0.1663795 | inflationary | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 108 | inflationary | 2 | 0.0869445 | inflationary pressure | 2 | 0.9997372 |
| 108 | inflationary pressure | 3 | 0.0572221 | pressure | 3 | 0.9995617 |
| 108 | time | 4 | 0.0399937 | downward pressure | 4 | 0.9992109 |
| 108 | downward | 5 | 0.0395991 | downward | 5 | 0.9990362 |
| 108 | upward | 6 | 0.0339440 | upward pressure | 6 | 0.9986852 |
| 108 | level | 7 | 0.0306561 | upward | 7 | 0.9985979 |
| 108 | increase | 8 | 0.0305246 | exert | 8 | 0.9984222 |
| 108 | lead | 9 | 0.0192143 | disinflationary | 9 | 0.9972400 |
| 108 | downward pressure | 10 | 0.0185568 | visible | 10 | 0.9970212 |
| 108 | reduce | 11 | 0.0184252 | price pressure | 11 | 0.9960131 |
| 108 | strong | 12 | 0.0177677 | exert downward pressure | 12 | 0.9958287 |
| 108 | upward pressure | 13 | 0.0176362 | term inflationary | 13 | 0.9957877 |
| 108 | result | 14 | 0.0164525 | lead | 14 | 0.9956105 |
| 108 | exert | 15 | 0.0147428 | reduce | 15 | 0.9953482 |
5.106.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Building Europe in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2007-10-25 | 0.114 | – has grown eightfold over the last 25 years and now stands at more than 130% of world gdp. globalisation is triggering major transformations all over the world, not only in europe. for instance, globalisation has had an impact on inflation. economic theory has identified numerous channels through which globalisation can influence price developments. without doubt, globalisation and the associated rise in world trade have contributed to import price moderation 2 , notably in the manufacturing sector, which is primarily due to increased imports from low-cost countries. furthermore, the widespread opening-up of emerging countries and of almost all former centrally planned economies has significantly increased the labour pool available, leading to dampening pressures on labour costs, espec… |
| Jürgen Stark: Main challenges for monetary policy in a globalised world | Period_1 | 2008-03-31 | 0.097 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Charting a new global landscape ¿ the growing impact of emerging markets on the world economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-04 | 0.094 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.086 | developments may end up in long-lasting subdued inflationary pressure, or even declining inflation for an extended period of time. disinflationary pressure is indeed the result found in a formal analysis of this type of situation made in a recent research paper at the ecb. 10 the paper shows that if the central bank concentrates exclusively on inflation forecasts as a summary statistic for the state of the economy, it will tend to adopt an accommodative stance. this occurs because the central bank, expecting a decrease in inflation, will cut the policy rate to keep inflation on target. this accommodative policy can trigger an asset price and credit boom that inflates the original economic expansion. eventually, it may turn out that the expectations of a new era, which triggered the over… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The role of central banks in a globalised economy | Period_1 | 2007-06-21 | 0.082 |
|
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.148 | in the case of a price level target, if there is downward pressure on the inflation rate so that the price level falls below its target path, then future inflation has to be temporarily higher in order to bring the price level back on track. in theory, the private sector would internalise these dynamics and increase its inflation expectations every time there is downward pressure on the price level. in turn, higher expected inflation would mitigate the downward pressure on today’s inflation rate. this expectations channel of monetary policy transmission associated with level targeting strategies is especially compelling in a low interest rate environment where the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates limits the scope for counteracting downward pressure on inflation rates by r… |
| Mario Draghi: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung | Period_2 | 2014-01-23 | 0.100 | are you more concerned about deflation than inflation? actually, i would say neither. the risks of deflation or inflation are limited at this point in time. but wouldn’t inflationary pressures rapidly increase in the case of a strong economic recovery? not necessarily. in the us, for example, and certainly in the euro area the recovery after the crisis has not been accompanied by inflationary pressures; unemployment is too high for that and production capacities are underutilised. |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-02-03 | 0.092 | only have lasting effects on the economy if left unattended by monetary policy. overall, these observations have three important implications for monetary policy. first, the evidence confirms that the core phillips curve connection linking inflation formation to resource utilisation remains a key ingredient in explaining the prevailing disinflationary pressures. second, this finding implies that monetary policy, which typically affects the level of slack by steering financing and credit conditions in the economy, also retains significant influence on inflation outcomes. third, domestic slack has not been the only disinflationary factor. to understand the drivers of low inflation, we thus need to look further afield – for instance, at shocks that have driven a wedge between the underlyin… |
| Peter Praet: Assessment of quantitative easing and challenges of policy normalisation | Period_2 | 2018-03-20 | 0.089 | ecb, ecb calculations.5 event studies – which measure the impact of central banks’ bond purchases in a narrow interval around the time of the announcement – play a part in informing our view on the efficacy of our purchases. but we also use model counterfactuals to complement the impact metrics that we derive from event studies, and to test whether or not the impact of our announcements endures beyond the very short term. in this context, dynamic term structure models of the type that have become standard in contemporary fixed income finance, augmented with a factor capturing central bank bond holdings, have consistently confirmed the inference we draw from event studies. they indicate that our purchases have had a sizeable and durable influence on long- term yields.6 at present, the cu… |
| Peter Praet: Assessment of quantitative easing and challenges of policy normalisation | Period_2 | 2018-03-20 | 0.087 | eser, lemke, nyholm, radde, and vladu (mimeo).7 downward pressure on yields is expected to be very persistent and to decline only gradually, but consistently, as we move forward in time, because of what is referred to as the “portfolio ageing” effect. the effects of our purchases of long-dated assets on market yields are principally due to the fact that we withdraw duration from private hands, and as the securities we hold in our portfolio draw closer to maturity and “lose duration” progressively, the overall amount of duration contained in our portfolio has a tendency to melt away. and this gradual loss of duration will reduce downward pressure on yields [chart 3].8 there has been a strong pass-through of our non-standard measures to financing conditions. for example, model-based count… |
| Frank Elderson: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy - delivering our mandate in all circumstances | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.086 | monetary policy puts upward pressure on prices by sustaining demand when supply is constrained. it will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. at the same time, with many of the sources of today’s inflation originating from supply constraints, government policies that redirect public and private investment to supporting sustainable growth can help mitigate inflationary pressures in the medium to longer term. in any case, these investments are crucial to achieving the eu’s aim of meeting the goals outlined in the paris agreement. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.081 | expected to largely fade out over the course of next year. overreacting to such short-term volatility would be harmful and risk jeopardising the ongoing economic recovery, which is why the ecb’s monetary policy remains focused on fulfilling its medium-term price stability mandate. nonetheless, significant uncertainty remains as to how persistent some of the current price pressures will prove to be. the ecb therefore continues to carefully monitor inflationary developments in the euro area, with a particular focus on second-round effects, to determine whether the headwinds that have exerted downward pressure on inflation for much of the past decade are still present, or whether they may reverse in the aftermath of the pandemic. the cyclical and specific pandemic factors will increasingly… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2022-09-26 | 0.076 | the outlook for the euro area economy the euro area economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2022, mainly owing to strong consumer spending on services as the economy reopened. economies with large tourism sectors benefited especially, as people travelled more over the summer. the still robust labour market also continued to support economic activity. notwithstanding this, we expect activity to slow substantially in the coming quarters. there are four main reasons behind this. first, high inflation is dampening spending and production throughout the economy, and these headwinds are reinforced by gas supply disruptions. second, the strong demand for services that came with the reopening of the economy is losing steam. third, the weakening in global demand, also in the contex… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.074 | composition of our balance sheet than it was in a phase when our asset purchase programmes resulted in a rapid increase in our securities holdings during a relatively short period. however, the signalling effects emanating from a given rate adjustment may well be larger than it is estimated to have been the case prior to the financial crisis. first, the exit from the negative interest rate policy may have strengthened the transmission of a rate hike throughout the term structure of interest rates. this would be the case if the unwinding of the outsized downward pressure on long- term yields that is estimated to have been associated with rate cuts in the negative territory was symmetric.[8] second, the retirement of rate forward guidance after years in which forward indications about the… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.073 | but the pandemic has also introduced new trends that could affect inflation dynamics in the years to come. those trends could produce both upward and downward price pressures. so, monetary policy must remain focused on steering the economy safely out of the pandemic emergency and lifting inflation sustainably towards our 2% target. |
The most representative speeches:
5.107 Topic 109: continue; quarter; remain; real; analysis
5.107.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | continue | 1 | 0.0219599 | regular economic | 1 | 0.9967478 |
| 109 | quarter | 2 | 0.0194509 | vice | 2 | 0.9962262 |
| 109 | remain | 3 | 0.0173183 | vice president | 3 | 0.9960527 |
| 109 | real | 4 | 0.0131784 | rate unchanged | 4 | 0.9958739 |
| 109 | analysis | 5 | 0.0121121 | regular | 5 | 0.9953968 |
| 109 | demand | 6 | 0.0117358 | interest rate unchanged | 6 | 0.9946401 |
| 109 | president | 7 | 0.0101677 | key ecb | 7 | 0.9933237 |
| 109 | vice | 8 | 0.0099795 | press conference | 8 | 0.9932948 |
| 109 | inflation rate | 9 | 0.0098540 | key ecb interest | 9 | 0.9929787 |
| 109 | base | 10 | 0.0095404 | sheet adjustment | 10 | 0.9929613 |
| 109 | vice president | 11 | 0.0090386 | ecb interest | 11 | 0.9916626 |
| 109 | recovery | 12 | 0.0086623 | unchanged | 12 | 0.9913108 |
| 109 | explain | 13 | 0.0085368 | lady | 13 | 0.9911311 |
| 109 | support | 14 | 0.0084114 | balance sheet adjustment | 14 | 0.9909508 |
| 109 | key ecb | 15 | 0.0082859 | ecb interest rate | 15 | 0.9909154 |
5.107.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-05-09 | 0.295 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference here in helsinki. i would like to thank governor liikanen for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of the meeting, which was also attended by commissioner rehn. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged following the 25-basis point increase on 7 april 2011. the information that has become available since then confirms our assessment that an adjustment of the very accommodative monetary policy stance was warranted. we continue to see upward pressure on overall inf… |
| European Central Bank: Press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-01-13 | 0.286 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. let me wish you all a very happy new year. i would also like to take this opportunity to welcome estonia as the seventeenth country to adopt the euro as its currency. accordingly, mr lipstok, the governor of eesti pank, became a member of the governing council on 1 january 2011. following the adoption of the euro by estonia there are now 331 million citizens using the euro as their currency. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting, which was also attended by commissioner rehn. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council confirmed that the current key ecb interest rates still remain appropriate. it therefore decided to leave them unchanged. t… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-11-07 | 0.262 | ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our press conference. today is the first time that i have had the privilege and pleasure of chairing the meeting of the governing council of the ecb. i am delighted to proceed now with our well-established practice of real-time communication and to report on the outcome of our meeting, together with the vice-president. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to reduce the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points. while inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above 2% for some months to come, inflation rates are expected to decline further in the course of 2012 to below 2%. at the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be moderate. after today’s decision, inflation should… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-04-08 | 0.260 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. before we report on the outcome of today’s meeting, we wish to express our sincere sympathy to the people of japan, after the tragic events and lamentable loss of life. all our thoughts are with those who have suffered directly or indirectly from the natural and nuclear disaster. let me now start reporting on the outcome of today’s meeting. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to increase the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points, after maintaining them unchanged for almost two years at historically low levels. the adjustment of the current very accommodative monetary policy stance is warranted in the light of upside risks to price sta… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_1 | 2011-07-11 | 0.243 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting. based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the governing council decided to increase the key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points, after raising rates by 25 basis points in april 2011 from historically low levels. the further adjustment of the current accommodative monetary policy stance is warranted in the light of upside risks to price stability. the underlying pace of monetary expansion is continuing to gradually recover, while monetary liquidity remains ample with the potential to accommodate price pressures in the euro area. all in all, it is essential that the recent price developments do not give rise to broad-bas… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2014-01-10 | 0.628 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. let me wish you all a happy new year. i would also like to take this opportunity to welcome latvia as the eighteenth country to adopt the euro as its currency. accordingly, mr rimšēvičs, the governor of latvijas banka, became a member of the governing council on 1 january 2014. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. incoming information and analysis have continued to confirm our previous assessment. underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. in keeping with this picture, monetary and … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-07-05 | 0.621 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr. rehn. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. incoming information has confirmed our previous assessment. underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. in keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. inflation expectations for the euro area continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. at the same time, … |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-12-05 | 0.595 | ladies and gentlemen, i am very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. i will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr rehn. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. incoming information and analysis have confirmed our assessment and monetary policy decisions of last month. underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. in keeping with this picture, monetary and credit dynamics remain subdued. at the same time, inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2013-10-03 | 0.580 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. i would like to thank governor noyer for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr rehn. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. incoming information and analysis have further underpinned our previous assessment. underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. in keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. infla… |
| Mario Draghi: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_2 | 2014-04-04 | 0.575 | ladies and gentlemen, the vice-president and i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. we will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the governing council, which was also attended by the commission vice-president, mr rehn. based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. incoming information confirms that the moderate recovery of the euro area economy is proceeding in line with our previous assessment. at the same time, recent information remains consistent with our expectation of a prolonged period of low inflation followed by a gradual upward movement in hicp inflation rates. the signals from the monetary analysis confirm the picture of subdued underlying price pressures in the euro area over the m… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy and the money market | Period_3 | 2022-09-15 | 0.044 | the temporary change in the remuneration ceiling for government deposits gives government deposit holders extra time to undertake a smooth and gradual return of their deposits to the market. from the ecb’s perspective, it remains the case that encouraging market intermediation of these deposits remains desirable in the long term. in the meantime, the temporary change will allow us to assess the adjustments of money markets across market segments to the return to positive interest rates and thereby also reduce uncertainty about the pass-through of the changes in the ecb interest rates to money markets. |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-06-09 | 0.038 | looking further ahead, we expect to raise the key ecb interest rates again in september. the calibration of this rate increase will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook. if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at our september meeting. third, beyond september, based on our current assessment, we anticipate that a gradual but sustained path of further increases in interest rates will be appropriate. in line with our commitment to our two per cent medium-term target, the pace at which we adjust our monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and how we assess inflation to develop in the medium term. within the governing council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monet… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.036 | long-term inflation expectations (annual percentage changes; percentages of respondents) ecb survey of professional forecasters. notes: respondents are asked to report their point forecasts and to separately assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. this chart shows the distribution of point forecast responses. a similar message is conveyed by market measures of inflation compensation, as shown in chart 11. the left panel of chart 11 shows that the estimated “true” (that is, corrected for risk premia) longer- term inflation expectations of market participations re-anchored over the course of 2021 at around 2 per cent, after an extended period substantially below the target. in terms of inflation risk, there has been a significant shift from an inflation risk discount until m… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.035 | confront semiconductor shortages and strengthen europe’s technological leadership”, press release, 8 february. 7. international energy agency (2021), “the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions”. 8. refers to firms which developed or introduced new products, processes or services as part of their investment activities. see european investment bank (2022), investment survey. 9. ferdinandusse, m., nerlich, c., and delgado téllez, m. (2022), “fiscal policies to mitigate climate change in the euro area”, economic bulletin, issue 6, european central bank. 10. darvas, z. and wolff, g.b. (2021), “a green fiscal pact: climate investment in times of budget consolidation”, policy contribution, issue no 18/21, bruegel, september. 11. latest data point q2 2022. based on the methodolo… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.035 | euro area and world gdp imf world economic outlook and ecb calculations. in relation to the composition of domestic demand, chart 2 shows that consumption and investment remain below pre-pandemic levels, whereas government spending (the sum of public consumption and public investment) has been substantially above the pre-pandemic level since the second half of 2020. the still-subdued level of private expenditure in the euro area stands in contrast to the much stronger recovery in domestic demand in the united states. |
The most representative speeches:
5.108 Topic 110: december; month; january; key; march
5.108.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | december | 1 | 0.0940052 | december | 1 | 0.9997371 |
| 110 | month | 2 | 0.0905370 | january | 2 | 0.9994743 |
| 110 | january | 3 | 0.0638320 | month | 3 | 0.9994742 |
| 110 | key | 4 | 0.0620979 | march | 4 | 0.9991239 |
| 110 | march | 5 | 0.0477049 | https | 5 | 0.9987719 |
| 110 | meet | 6 | 0.0353929 | october | 6 | 0.9985982 |
| 110 | start | 7 | 0.0326183 | press key | 7 | 0.9985967 |
| 110 | late | 8 | 0.0305374 | february | 8 | 0.9984229 |
| 110 | october | 9 | 0.0281097 | key | 9 | 0.9984219 |
| 110 | press | 10 | 0.0227340 | april | 10 | 0.9983354 |
| 110 | april | 11 | 0.0220403 | en.html | 11 | 0.9982897 |
| 110 | february | 12 | 0.0201328 | press | 12 | 0.9982477 |
| 110 | november | 13 | 0.0177051 | meet | 13 | 0.9981592 |
| 110 | september | 14 | 0.0164912 | november | 14 | 0.9978097 |
| 110 | https | 15 | 0.0159710 | late | 15 | 0.9977210 |
5.108.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The process of economic, monetary and financial integration in Europe | Period_1 | 2006-12-04 | 0.081 | cappiello, l., p. hördahl, a. kadareja, and s. manganelli (2006), “the impact of the euro on financial markets,” ecb working paper no 598. de grauwe, p. and f. p. mongelli (2005), “endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?”, ecb working paper no 468. de santis, r. and b. gérard (2006), “financial integration, international portfolio choice and the european monetary union”, ecb working paper no 626. dhyne, e. et al. (2005), “price setting in the euro area: some stylized facts from individual consumer price data”, ecb working paper no 524. duisenberg, w. “jean monnet memorial lecture” (2000) duval, r. and j. elmeskov (2006), “the effects of emu on structural reforms in labour and product markets,” ecb working paper no 596. ec… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2009-04-01 | 0.072 | economic and monetary developments let me begin with the economic situation and our recent monetary policy decisions. please note that, with only three days before our next monetary policy meeting this thursday, i am in the so-called “purdah” period and will therefore duly remain with what i said at my last press conference. since my appearance before the european parliament on 21 january the economic situation and outlook have weakened further. inflationary pressures have diminished further, as confirmed by monetary and credit trends. in february the inflation rate remained low, at 1.2%. as you know, the decline in inflation since last summer primarily reflects the sharp falls in global commodity prices over this period. looking ahead, we expect inflation rates well below 2% for this y… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic management in a large currency zone like the euro area | Period_1 | 2007-10-08 | 0.071 | ecb (2005), “monetary policy and inflation differentials in a heterogeneous currency area”, article in the ecb monthly bulletin of may 2005. ecb (2007), “output growth differentials in the euro area: sources and implications” article in the ecb monthly bulletin of april 2007. eu commission (2006), “the eu economy 2006 review. adjustment dynamics in the euro area: experiences and challenges”, 22 november 2006. giannone, d. and l. reichlin (2006), “trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?”, ecb working paper no 595. mckinnon, r. (2001), “optimum currency areas revisited,” stanford university, mimeo. mundell, r. (1973), “uncommon arguments for common currencies”, in h.g. johnson and a.k. swoboda, the economics of common currencies, allen and … |
| Presentation of the ECB Convergence Report 2000 (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 3 May 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-05-08 | 0.067 | greece’s public debt is falling only slowly, despite high primary surpluses and privatisation receipts. as a consequence, substantial primary surpluses and persistent, sizeable overall fiscal surpluses outperforming the targets of the updated greek convergence programme are crucial if the debt ratio is to be reduced to 60% within an appropriate period of time. tight fiscal policy will also be needed in order to contain the earlier-mentioned inflationary pressures. as regards the development of long-term interest rates, which constitute another key variable within the overall convergence assessment, their level reached 6.4% on average during the reference period from april 1999 to march 2000. as a result, they stood 0.8%-point below the reference value for the interest rate criterion of … |
| Current economic developments and prospects in Europe, as well as other activities of the Eurosystem (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 20 Jun 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-06-26 | 0.063 |
|
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Interview with Deutschlandfunk | Period_2 | 2017-02-20 | 0.107 | address something. it is important to know what exactly that is. ms lautenschläger, inflation has returned. after a long period with no inflation, the latest estimate puts it at 1.8% for the euro area. the ecb has always said it aimed for an inflation rate of close to 2% – that is what we have now. when will you raise interest rates? returning your question, can we say that inflation has come back, having had such an inflation rate for one month? we have… it was 1.7% in december. no, the rate for the euro area in december… it was, nevertheless, 1.7% in germany and 1.1% in the euro area. exactly. in the euro area – and the ecb conducts monetary policy for the euro area – inflation was 1.1% in december and it is estimated at 1.8% in january. frankly, i am delighted about that: we are … |
| Mario Draghi: How domestic economic strength can prevail over global weakness | Period_2 | 2016-01-26 | 0.099 | 1 see speech by mario draghi at the european banking congress: monetary policy: past, present and future, frankfurt am main, 20 november 2015 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2015/html/ sp151120.en.html 2 bundesbank monthly report article: german households’ saving and investment behaviour in light of the low- interest-rate environment, october 2015: https://www.bundesbank.de/redaktion/en/downloads/publications/ monthly_report_articles/2015/2015_10_households.pdf?__blob=publicationfile |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.098 | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200930~169abb1202.en.html 6/7 |
| Isabel Schnabel: COVID-19 and monetary policy - reinforcing prevailing challenges | Period_2 | 2020-11-24 | 0.098 | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp201124~bcaebee7c0.en.html 5/13 |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in a pandemic - ensuring favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2020-12-01 | 0.087 | counterfactual analysis by ecb staff based on this approach suggests that, absent our monetary policy measures, euro area output would be 1.3 percentage points lower and the annual inflation rate would be 0.8 percentage points lower by 2022 in cumulative terms (chart 3).[6] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp201126~c5c1036327.en.html 3/19 |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.110 |
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| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.109 | today, | wish to frame the current monetary policy debate in the context of the monetary policy strategy of the ecb.” | will not dwell on the latest conjunctural developments or speculate on the evolution of the medium-term outlook for the economy and inflation. our monetary policy meeting next week will provide the best opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of economic and financial developments and the implications for near-term and medium-term inflation dynamics. in this respect, the schedule for the march staff projections exercise has been revised in order to take into account the implications of the russian invasion of ukraine. the revised schedule also means that today’s eurostat inflation release will be incorporated in the projections that will be considered at next week’s… |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.082 | inflation expectations in the survey of monetary analysts (left: pooled probability distribution; right: average probability) march 2022 survey of monetary analysts (sma) and february 2022 sma. notes: left side – maximum number of respondents is 23 for march 2022 sma and 22 for february 2022 sma. grey area denotes the median. right side – number of respondents for march 2022 sma is 21. |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.080 |
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| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy tightening and the green transition | Period_3 | 2023-01-11 | 0.062 |
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The most representative speeches:
5.109 Topic 111: crisis; bank; debt; sovereign; sovereign debt
5.109.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | crisis | 1 | 0.0662483 | sovereign debt | 1 | 0.9996494 |
| 111 | bank | 2 | 0.0579538 | debt crisis | 2 | 0.9992990 |
| 111 | debt | 3 | 0.0494188 | sovereign debt crisis | 3 | 0.9992988 |
| 111 | sovereign | 4 | 0.0398019 | lehman | 4 | 0.9986852 |
| 111 | sovereign debt | 5 | 0.0238138 | sovereign | 5 | 0.9985097 |
| 111 | phase | 6 | 0.0221309 | collapse | 6 | 0.9983354 |
| 111 | debt crisis | 7 | 0.0199671 | lehman brother | 7 | 0.9976320 |
| 111 | sovereign debt crisis | 8 | 0.0162405 | brother | 8 | 0.9976320 |
| 111 | liquidity | 9 | 0.0132352 | debt | 9 | 0.9973664 |
| 111 | start | 10 | 0.0109512 | phase | 10 | 0.9971927 |
| 111 | collapse | 11 | 0.0099895 | outright monetary transaction | 11 | 0.9968415 |
| 111 | credit | 12 | 0.0098693 | monetary transaction | 12 | 0.9967543 |
| 111 | lehman | 13 | 0.0097491 | outright monetary | 13 | 0.9963591 |
| 111 | weak | 14 | 0.0096289 | fragmentation | 14 | 0.9960552 |
| 111 | fragmentation | 15 | 0.0089076 | outright | 15 | 0.9952682 |
5.109.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: One size fits all? | Period_1 | 2011-05-30 | 0.137 | recent years has been driven by differences in the impact and diffusion of a common shock, namely the financial crisis. the crisis has been a global shock that affected all countries in the euro area – and others, of course. it started with the emergence of market tensions in mid-2007 associated with uncertainty about the valuation of us mortgage-backed securities and escalated sharply in september 2008 with the bankruptcy of lehman brothers. the varying impact of this shock on financial conditions across countries has led to a potential for dramatically different transmission of the single monetary policy stance determined by the ecb’s governing council. this is especially the case in the most recent phase of the crisis, when sovereign debt concerns and their interaction with the stren… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Intervention at Sveriges Riksbank conference “Monetary policy in an era of fiscal stress” | Period_1 | 2011-06-21 | 0.100 | euro area average coming down to slightly above 4%. the euro area debt-to-gdp ratio is expected to stabilise in 2013 and come down thereafter. in the euro area three countries are facing severe problems regarding market access. overall these three countries account for about 6% of the euro area gdp. i will not elaborate on these three cases, and the fact that they have emerged in the midst of the worst economic and financial crisis since world war ii. the solution to these three cases entails a specific role to be played by the fiscal authority of the respective countries, the fiscal authorities of the other countries supporting the adjustment programme in those countries and the ecb. some commentators have said that in a crisis stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal policy i… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Intervention at Sveriges Riksbank conference “Monetary policy in an era of fiscal stress” | Period_1 | 2011-06-21 | 0.093 | it is a pleasure for me to contribute to this sveriges riksbank conference entitled “monetary policy in an era of fiscal stress”. the subject is indeed a very topical – and global – one. not just in europe but around the world, the crisis has progressively acquired a fiscal dimension that may be with us for a number of years to come. against this background, it may be useful for me to briefly look back over the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policies, stressing in particular the challenges that monetary policy may face in an environment of sharply rising fiscal deficits and debt. coming from the ecb, i will of course primarily focus on the euro area experience and lessons. if, in a simple one-country setting, sovereign debt becomes unsustainable, the central bank always… |
| Jürgen Stark: The economic crisis and the response of fiscal and monetary policy | Period_1 | 2009-06-15 | 0.088 | introduction following the default of lehman brothers in mid-september last year, the turmoil in financial markets which had started in august 2007 turned into a major financial crisis. liquidity dried up, and credit flows to the economy slowed down. problems in the financial system quickly spilled over to the real economy, and an adverse feedback loop between the real economy and the financial sector emerged. this has led to the most severe and synchronised global economic downturn for 80 years. the euro area has not been spared. economic activity has declined sharply, and inflation is at its lowest level since the launch of the euro. monetary and fiscal authorities across the globe have responded quickly and decisively to these extraordinary developments. in particular, against the ba… |
| Lucas Papademos: Tackling the financial crisis - policies for stability and recovery | Period_1 | 2009-02-17 | 0.072 | financial imbalances in the future and minimise the likelihood of another financial crisis in the long run? ii. policies to preserve stability, restore confidence and foster economic recovery over the past five months, since the financial turmoil intensified and economic conditions deteriorated substantially, central banks and governments have taken unprecedented measures to preserve stability and cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the economy: • unprecedented have been the measures taken by the major central banks since the eruption of the crisis, as judged (i) by the size and frequency of money market operations to provide liquidity; (ii) by the enlargement of the pool of eligible collateral and the expansion of their balance sheets; (iii) by the speed and magnitude of mone… |
| Peter Praet: The role of the European Central Bank - pudence and responsibility in times of crisis | Period_2 | 2017-05-12 | 0.476 | without these operations, the financial system would have imploded and a far deeper contraction would have occurred. in arresting the meltdown in the money market we were able to avoid a chain of bank failures which would have precipitated a collapse in money and credit, with severe consequences for price stability. not acting would, in fact, have amounted to deflecting responsibility for our mandate and risked accepting the kind of economic disorder experienced during the great depression, as mentioned in my introduction. on that account, our balance sheet took on a more prominent role as a stabilising instrument. the novelty of deploying the central bank balance sheet as an instrument was immediately met with substantial scepticism. first, there was apprehension about moral hazard: af… |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy - past and present | Period_2 | 2017-03-17 | 0.395 | so when this reality finally bit in 2008, monetary policy was left facing a uniquely challenging set of conditions: an “expectations gap” which had left firms and households overleveraged and in urgent need of balance sheet repair, coupled with a “credit gap” as overextended banks began their necessary restructuring and deleveraging – in other words, a so-called balance sheet recession. these conditions laid the ground for the subsequent evolution of the crisis in the euro area, which has unfolded in three main phases, each of which has required a different monetary policy response. the first phase was the immediate liquidity crisis triggered by the turning of the global financial cycle and the subsequent collapse of lehman brothers. as in other advanced economies, euro area banks faced… |
| Peter Praet: Ensuring price stability | Period_2 | 2017-05-05 | 0.395 | the second phase of the crisis came as a consequence of the loss of confidence in some sovereigns. it brought on the development of redenomination risk and thereby threatened the integrity of our currency. the sovereign debt crisis found impulse in some cases from a weak fiscal position, whereas in others from a weak banking system. but irrespective of its initial impulse it quickly became a two-way interaction through the “bank-sovereign” nexus. banks remained dependent on fiscal authorities for solvency assistance, and the financial obligations vis-à-vis banks that this responsibility created on the side of some national fiscal authorities with weak fundamentals further undermined their credit standing. as the cost of borrowing for certain governments increased, banks with exposures t… |
| Peter Praet: Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment | Period_2 | 2018-06-19 | 0.352 | had been slowing since the mid-1990s, agents overestimated future income growth and borrowed against it, accumulating excessive levels of debt. at the same time, poor risk management, low capital and liquidity, inadequate corporate governance, and weak supervision and regulation encouraged financial leverage, which led to the build-up of vulnerabilities. this was particularly acute in the united states, where there was a rapid expansion in the development of complex financial securities, which later proved to entail substantial risks. this oversight can to some extent be explained by the fact that, in the decade leading up to the crisis, the overall macroeconomic environment had been very stable, with some observers even concluding that monetary policy had tamed the business cycle once … |
| Peter Praet: Have unconventional policies overstretched central bank independence? Challenges for accountability and transparency in the wake of the crisis | Period_2 | 2017-03-30 | 0.334 | challenges for central bank communication and accountability in times of crisis we have been going through the biggest financial crisis in two generations, which has now lasted nearly a decade. prior to it, monetary policy operated predominantly through adjustments to short-term interest rates. but the crisis has upended traditional patterns in finance and economics, and monetary policy is no exception. in its response to the crisis, the ecb has deployed a novel and complex range of instruments. the novelty and complexity of these unconventional measures have created challenges for accountability and transparency. the financial crisis has evolved in three main phases, each of which has required different monetary policy responses and has brought about particular challenges for central b… |
| Christine Lagarde: Challenges along Europe’s road | Period_3 | 2022-05-16 | 0.118 | christine lagarde: challenges along europe’s road speech by ms christine lagarde, president of the european central bank, at the international conference to mark the 30th anniversary of banka slovenije, ljubljana, 11 may 2022 * * * it is a pleasure to be in ljubljana today to discuss “the road already travelled and contemporary challenges”. europe can learn a great deal from the journey of slovenia in recent decades. the country has faced and overcome serious challenges over the years: its independence from yugoslavia; joining the eu; adopting the euro; overcoming the crisis that erupted in 2013; and now the pandemic overlayered with russian war against ukraine. but time and again, slovenia has risen to the challenge and excelled. it has become an integral part of european value chains,… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.117 | 2.1 a reality check: the financial and sovereign debt crises this weakness was laid bare by the financial crisis. the euro area adopted a flawed policy mix, causing an economic gap to emerge with other major economies. during the crisis, fiscal policies – after intervening for a short space of time to support the economy – procyclically turned towards fiscal consolidation, mainly through uncoordinated interventions inconsistent with the fiscal stance that would have been appropriate at european level. between 2011 and 2013 procyclical fiscal consolidation triggered contractionary forces that turned out to be self- defeating also in terms of debt sustainability. the onus of stabilising the european economy fell on the ecb’s monetary policy alone, forcing the euro area to undergo a slow a… |
| Fabio Panetta: Europe’s shared destiny, economics and the law | Period_3 | 2022-04-22 | 0.087 | even these institutional innovations were initially insufficient to change the course of european policies. the financial assistance given to countries hit by the financial and sovereign debt crises was tied to strict policy conditionality. financial assistance programmes were conceived in partial equilibrium at the level of single countries, with insufficient efforts made to understand their implications for the euro area as a whole. the start of banking union was also not immune to policy errors. as a member of the ecb’s supervisory board at the time, i argued against the decision to accelerate the necessary increase in banks’ capital ratios in the midst of a crisis, especially in view of the incomplete nature of banking union.[8] the procyclical policies that characterised those year… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.086 | this outcome is largely attributable to the combined response of monetary and fiscal policy, which has preserved both demand and supply. for instance, real labour income fell by 3.6% in 2020, but household real disposable income dropped by only 0.2%, because government transfers filled the gap. this is in stark contrast with the sovereign debt crisis, when disposable income fell by 2% year-on- year. the atypical nature of the recovery is creating frictions in the economy, which can produce opposing effects on growth and inflation. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.078 | at the same time, investors are increasingly challenging the view that the euro area economy will fall back into the vicious circle of low growth and low inflation that characterised the pre-pandemic macroeconomic environment. current forward inflation swap rates indicate that inflation is expected to stabilise at, or close to, our two per cent target over the medium to long term, well above the level that was expected before the pandemic. |
The most representative speeches:
5.110 Topic 112: income; household; consumption; house; real
5.110.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | income | 1 | 0.1073493 | income | 1 | 1.0000000 |
| 112 | household | 2 | 0.0862700 | wealth | 2 | 0.9987734 |
| 112 | consumption | 3 | 0.0468271 | consumption | 3 | 0.9985971 |
| 112 | house | 4 | 0.0282049 | house | 4 | 0.9984219 |
| 112 | real | 5 | 0.0247132 | household | 5 | 0.9984210 |
| 112 | investment | 6 | 0.0231614 | inequality | 6 | 0.9982013 |
| 112 | affect | 7 | 0.0207043 | disposable income | 7 | 0.9980725 |
| 112 | wealth | 8 | 0.0199284 | disposable | 8 | 0.9978973 |
| 112 | consumer | 9 | 0.0177299 | real income | 9 | 0.9973701 |
| 112 | spend | 10 | 0.0155314 | save | 10 | 0.9965388 |
| 112 | saving | 11 | 0.0154021 | owner | 11 | 0.9965326 |
| 112 | cost | 12 | 0.0137210 | saving | 12 | 0.9964045 |
| 112 | disposable income | 13 | 0.0135916 | owner occupy | 13 | 0.9962651 |
| 112 | disposable | 14 | 0.0129450 | occupy | 14 | 0.9962253 |
| 112 | rise | 15 | 0.0122984 | occupy house | 15 | 0.9960458 |
5.110.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Retail sales from a euro area perspective | Period_1 | 2010-10-28 | 0.242 | it is a great pleasure for me to be here in berlin today at the world retail congress. retail sales constitute about 45 percent of private consumption, which in turn amounts to a share of almost 60% of gdp. thus, retail sales alone explain around 30 percent of aggregate demand in the euro area. these impressive figures are enough to underline the importance of the retail sector for the overall economy. as you know, the primary objective of the ecb’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability. the governing council of the ecb aims at keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. in order to reach this objective we must assess the inflation outlook continuously. we form our view on future inflation by closely following and monitoring a wide range of indicators … |
| Mr Noyer considers the role of the central bank in encouraging and safeguarding savings (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 21 Jan 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-01-26 | 0.180 | in fact, in a situation where inflation rises unexpectedly a transfer of wealth occurs from the creditors to the debtors. this interferes with the optimal allocation of savings (i shall return to this issue) when the transfers of wealth do not correspond to the provision of a service or a real economic cost, but have all the characteristics of a “windfall profit” or an exceptional loss. it can also result in a reduction in the amount of savings in two ways: by discouraging agents’ propensity to save amounts subject to the monetary hazard; and (because of the bias resulting from the depreciation in the nominal value of debt and the fiscal distortion to which i referred) by transferring inflationary income from the private to the public sector, which has a lower saving ratio. second, infl… |
| Juergen Stark: Contributions of central bank statistics in a global context | Period_1 | 2010-10-25 | 0.127 | ladies and gentlemen, the global crisis has demonstrated that high quality statistics are essential. the crisis underscored the need for statistics to keep pace with changes in the financial landscape. these changes can transform the nature of financial intermediation and the transmission of macro-financial shocks in the economy. let me give you a few flashlights of how the global harmonisation of statistical concepts would support higher quality analysis. global inflation rates have rebounded from their bottom, but they have remained subdued. however, these measures of inflation are not fully comparable. data for the euro area and the uk (as for the whole european union) refer to the harmonised indices of consumer prices (hicps) calculated according to a harmonised methodology and a si… |
| Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Retail sales from a euro area perspective | Period_1 | 2010-10-28 | 0.117 | allow me to elaborate a little bit more on this point. loan developments in the euro area can be explained by their main determinants, such as house prices, various interest rates and real income. in line with this, we saw that the annual growth rate of loans to households – after some months in negative territory – has turned positive towards the end of 2009 and since then has continued to increase steadily [ last observation: 2.9% in august 2010]. this positive annual growth of loans to households reflects mainly developments in lending for house purchase. loans for consumer credit are still contributing negatively to overall loan growth. these latest developments in loans to households confirm the broad consistency with business cycle regularities, which suggest that the turning poin… |
| Mr Noyer considers the role of the central bank in encouraging and safeguarding savings (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 21 Jan 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-01-26 | 0.091 | ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to be taking part in this eurofonds colloquium on savings. i should like to take this opportunity to share with you some thoughts on the role of a central bank in encouraging and safeguarding savings. this is indeed a crucial matter, since the level of savings largely determines the long-term level of productive investment, which provides the basis for solid and stable growth. moreover, the level and structure of savings affects, in various ways, the cost and means of financing enterprises, the profitability of the financial sector and the distribution of income between generations in view of the central issue of financing retirement. i should like to focus my presentation, as i am sure you will understand, not on the central bank in theory b… |
| Peter Praet: Long-run saving and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-11-16 | 0.274 | other potential consequences of unconventional measures while our measures have been successful in their aim of stabilising output and inflation, they also carry risks in terms of allocation of resources and distribution of wealth and income. potential risks include blunting the creative destruction of the crisis by allowing unproductive, zombie firms to remain in business and permitting the inflation of asset bubbles. some have also raised concerns that low interest rates have reduced incentives for governments to carry out difficult fiscal and structural reforms. these topics are complex and deserve a greater depth of comment than i have time to cover today. given the audience here tonight, i wanted to focus on two particular potential consequences of our unconventional measures: the … |
| Benoît Cœuré: What can monetary policy do about inequality? | Period_2 | 2012-10-18 | 0.274 | even poorer. in addition, monetary policy shocks and surprise inflation can have an impact on inequality through other sources of income. income from labour and the unemployment of less-skilled workers tend to be adversely affected to a disproportionate degree during recessions. all in all, recent studies suggest that a higher inflation rate is accompanied by greater income inequality.11 at the same time research on the us data finds that also contractionary monetary policy actions appear to increase inequality in earnings and total income.12 a stability-oriented monetary policy, which aims to smooth the cycle and reduce its amplitude, ought therefore to cushion the impact of negative shocks on poorer households. however, it is not only the extent of income and wealth shocks that affect… |
| Benoît Cœuré: What can monetary policy do about inequality? | Period_2 | 2012-10-18 | 0.255 | can monetary policy affect inequality and poverty? but let me now return to the contribution that the central bank itself can make to reducing inequality and poverty. is there evidence that monetary policy affects inequality? i will discuss this question from two perspectives: first, the immediate distributive effects of monetary policy and inflation; and second, the benefits of macroeconomic stability for the more vulnerable. because monetary policy is transmitted through many channels, direct and indirect – interest rates both current and expected, credit extension, asset prices – and because households differ in many respects – with regard to socio-demographic factors, such as age and education, as well as economic variables, such as income, wealth, employment status and housing stat… |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Monetary policy - end of history? | Period_2 | 2018-07-27 | 0.243 | distribution of wealth and income. and the important question is whether it makes this distribution more unequal. does it make the rich richer and the poor poorer? let’s look at wealth first. here, the most important item for many households is real estate, the home they live in and any other property they may own. real estate makes up about 80% of the total assets of households, almost irrespective of their level of prosperity. so, to answer our question, we need to think about how monetary policy affects house prices. the answer is that quantitative easing raises house prices and, on average, this boosts the net wealth of all households, rich and poor alike. in fact, poorer households might even benefit more because they are more highly leveraged. so their main asset – their house – g… |
| Yves Mersch: Asset price inflation and monetary policy | Period_2 | 2020-01-28 | 0.193 | incorporating owner-occupied housing in the reference rate of inflation for monetary policy would provide a clearer signal for monetary policy to lean against housing price booms. indeed, the united states, japan, sweden and norway already integrate owner-occupied housing into their reference inflation indices. if it were to be included in the hicp, it could raise measured inflation rates in the euro area by around 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points in some periods.[21] taking that into consideration, core inflation would lift from its current 1.3% to its long-run trend, or even higher, thereby having a bearing on the monetary policy stance. the gap between perceptions and official measures of inflation can complicate the communication of policy decisions. if households believe that inflation… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.278 | expenditures price index which is the index used by the federal reserve system (frs) to set its target) that both include an owner-occupied housing cost component based on the rent equivalence approach. for an international comparison see “inflation measurement and its assessment in the ecb’s monetary policy strategy review”, occasional paper series, no 265, ecb, september 2021. 5. this general hicp principle implies that household purchases from a seller in another macroeconomic sector, for example, non-financial corporations, are included, while purchases between households (e.g. second-hand vehicles not sold by dealers and garages) are not. the reason for this is that transactions within the household sector, i.e. when one household is the buyer and another household is the seller, d… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.265 | the second step, in line with the hicp regulation, is to derive a price index by looking only at transactions to, but not within, the household sector.=! sales of houses between households should be ignored, which means focusing mainly on new builds. this results in a relatively small number of transactions per month, which, for smaller countries, may make it impossible to calculate a monthly price index. in the strategy review we looked at all of these technical issues and how to solve them. as part of the review, the governing council decided in favour of including owner-occupied housing using the net acquisition approach._!4] however, the hicp is not compiled by the ecb but by eurostat and the national statistical institutes. the governing council thus proposed a roadmap that takes i… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.177 | one challenge is that housing has a dual nature: at first, buying a house is an investment in an asset. but buyers may have different intentions: they could use the house only as an investment — by renting it out — or use it primarily for consumption — by occupying it as an owner. as the owner-occupier will also benefit from the increase in the house’s value over time, it will be used for both investment and consumption. |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.168 | this outcome is largely attributable to the combined response of monetary and fiscal policy, which has preserved both demand and supply. for instance, real labour income fell by 3.6% in 2020, but household real disposable income dropped by only 0.2%, because government transfers filled the gap. this is in stark contrast with the sovereign debt crisis, when disposable income fell by 2% year-on- year. the atypical nature of the recovery is creating frictions in the economy, which can produce opposing effects on growth and inflation. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.160 | in parallel, the necessary legal work will be started so that an official quarterly index can be made available, possibly in 2026. here, | am counting on the support of the european parliament, given that it already requested the integration of owner-occupied housing in 2016.8] the aim — and final stage — would be to include owner-occupied housing at a monthly frequency and in a timely manner, hence fully usable for monetary policy purposes. |
The most representative speeches:
5.111 Topic 113: evidence; empirical; research; study; time
5.111.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | evidence | 1 | 0.0686110 | empirical | 1 | 0.9998248 |
| 113 | empirical | 2 | 0.0447388 | study | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 113 | research | 3 | 0.0404245 | empirical evidence | 3 | 0.9994741 |
| 113 | study | 4 | 0.0398493 | academic | 4 | 0.9992115 |
| 113 | time | 5 | 0.0248932 | research | 5 | 0.9987727 |
| 113 | academic | 6 | 0.0188533 | evidence | 6 | 0.9987719 |
| 113 | empirical evidence | 7 | 0.0185657 | theoretical | 7 | 0.9985105 |
| 113 | conduct | 8 | 0.0184218 | finding | 8 | 0.9983341 |
| 113 | theory | 9 | 0.0168400 | theory | 9 | 0.9981600 |
| 113 | result | 10 | 0.0154019 | science | 10 | 0.9975449 |
| 113 | theoretical | 11 | 0.0145390 | literature | 11 | 0.9972840 |
| 113 | link | 12 | 0.0143952 | knowledge | 12 | 0.9968021 |
| 113 | general | 13 | 0.0142514 | carry | 13 | 0.9955755 |
| 113 | numb | 14 | 0.0106562 | empirical study | 14 | 0.9951657 |
| 113 | reason | 15 | 0.0105124 | link | 15 | 0.9949967 |
5.111.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The role of money in the conduct of monetary policy | Period_1 | 2006-11-16 | 0.242 |
|
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.226 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Willem F Duisenberg Fellowship of the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study | Period_1 | 2008-03-05 | 0.212 | ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure for me to be here today in amsterdam to inaugurate the willem f. duisenberg fellowship of the netherlands institute for advanced study. i am particularly delighted to be here for two reasons. first, this new fellowship was set up in honour of wim duisenberg, the first president of the european central bank (ecb), who successfully led us through the uncharted territory of introducing the euro as the new currency for the, by now, around 320 million fellow european citizens. second, the willem f. duisenberg fellowship establishes another european programme that will foster top-quality research in the field of applied monetary and macroeconomics. it will thereby contribute to the continuous upgrading of our knowledge in these areas of research, w… |
| Lucas Papademos: The science of monetary policy ¿ past advances and future challenges | Period_1 | 2007-09-24 | 0.200 | effective in ensuring price stability. for the ecb, the unambiguous commitment to price stability is reflected in the quantification of its policy objective and its communication, but most importantly in its determination and consistency in pursuing price stability (the nominal anchor). so far, i have fully agreed with the role and significance of seven, out of the nine, principles proposed by frederic for providing the scientific underpinning of monetary policy. there are two principles, however, that i do not consider as having been fully and widely accepted and reflected in the practice of monetary policy: the principle concerning the role and usefulness of monetary policy rules and the one pertaining to the role of financial frictions in business cycles. these two principles do not … |
| Why price stability? | Period_1 | 2000-11-03 | 0.171 | series of working papers and periodic bulletins. the close collaboration between the ecb and the academic world mirrors what is occurring more broadly between academia and the new knowledge-based industries. it facilitates the continuous elaboration and improvement of a large set of tools that are of utmost importance for decision-making at the ecb, ranging from models for forecasting and policy evaluation to analytical frameworks for monitoring monetary and credit developments. i wish to stress that such an exchange becomes particularly important and mutually beneficial in the context of the european system of central banks. this is because we at the ecb face considerable and historically unique challenges in carrying out our responsibilities. if, in general, a monetary policy strategy… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.109 | 1 see brunner (1981), cook and hahn (1989) and goodfriend (1986). 2 for an overview of the way central banks have been providing more information about their monetary policy making, see for example geraats (2014). for a survey of empirical evidence on the effects of communication, see blinder et al. (2008). 3 a body of empirical evidence supports the view that high transparency and good communication reinforce policy effectiveness and market efficiency. see, for example, levin, natalucci, and piger (2004); gürkaynak, levin, and swanson (2006); and castelnuovo, nicoletti-altimari, and rodriguez palenzuela (2003). |
| Peter Praet: The European Central Bank’s fight against low inflation - reasons and consequences | Period_2 | 2016-04-11 | 0.090 | conclusion let me conclude. decades of experience have confirmed the importance of price stability for macroeconomic stability and sustained economic growth. that is true both when inflation is too high and 10 eggertsson, g. and b. pugsley (2006), “the mistake of 1937: a general equilibrium analysis,” monetary and economic studies, institute for monetary and economic studies, bank of japan, vol. 24(s1), pages 151–190, december. 11 orphanides, a. and j. williams (2004), “imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy,” nber chapters, in: the inflation-targeting debate, pages 201–246 national bureau of economic research, inc. |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Monetary policy in uncertain times - the European Central Bank and the crisis | Period_2 | 2016-09-15 | 0.084 | all beginnings are difficult. it’s true of monetary policy as well. let’s consider for a moment europe’s first central bank. in 1656 johan palmstruch founded stockholm banco, introduced paper money and triggered an economic crisis. what happened? at the outset stockholm banco conducted normal banking operations: it took deposits and made loans. the deposits at that time mainly consisted of copper coins, and the most common denomination weighed almost 20 kg. but in 1662 the swedish state issued new coins which contained less copper. the old coins stored at stockholm banco thus became more valuable and the depositors asked for them back. the bank then found itself with a serious liquidity problem because the desired coins had been issued as loans. faced with this situation, johan palmstru… |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.084 | research suggests that these forces have affected inflation in the euro area in recent decades. a recent study finds that global factors, such as global commodity prices, global slack and producer price competition, can all significantly affect inflation.[11] ecb research also finds that digitalisation has been disinflationary in the euro area: since 2006, e-commerce has led to an average yearly decrease in non- energy industrial goods inflation of 0.06 percentage points.[12] and empirical evidence suggests that a shrinking working-age population may depress inflation.[13] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200930~169abb1202.en.html 3/7 |
| Vítor Constâncio: The future of monetary policy frameworks | Period_2 | 2017-06-13 | 0.084 | prior to the financial crisis, the performance of inflation targeting was in practice widely considered as a success.2 to recall that in the 70s and 80s, a period that now seems in the distant past, the key challenge for central banks was very high inflation, not too low. empirical evidence suggests that countries that adopted inflation targeting, beginning with new zealand in 1989, have experienced lower average inflation rates than they did before its adoption. for instance, in a prominent study, carl walsh identifies ten inflation‐targeting oecd countries and reports that the average inflation rate across countries declined from 9.2% prior to the adoption of inflation targeting to 3.2% after the adoption. importantly, the decline in the level of inflation was accompanied by a decline… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox and the effective lower bound | Period_3 | 2021-11-16 | 0.109 | philip r lane: the monetary policy toolbox and the effective lower bound welcome address by mr philip r lane, member of the executive board of the european central bank, at the ecb conference on monetary policy “bridging science and practice”, frankfurt am main, 11 october 2021. * * * it is a pleasure to welcome you to the 2021 edition of the annual ecb conference on monetary policy. as captured in the title of this year’s event, this conference series serves a vital role in bridging the science and practice of monetary policy. in particular, it is essential for the ecb to incorporate in our analytical framework the theoretical and empirical insights generated by the global academic community, and the conference format (albeit in webinar mode again this year) is very effective in provid… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.091 | arise upon a policy announcement (or in anticipation of the announcement) and are influenced by the expected future evolution of central banks’ asset holdings. empirical evidence suggests that stock effects account for the bulk of the impact of asset purchases and are likely to last longer (although assessing their duration is extremely difficult). conversely, within the academic literature, “flow effects” refer to those effects that emerge through the actual implementation of the purchases and generally reflect improvements in liquidity conditions and market functioning during periods of high financial stress. the evidence suggests that flow effects are typically contained and short-lived. it is notable, however, that the term “flow effects” has at times been used in relation to the hi… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.089 | : household debt: united states versus euro area ecb, federal reserve board and bureau of economic analysis. the latest observation is for the first quarter of 2022. another factor to consider in relation to the transmission of our monetary policy is the causal relation between economy-wide slack and inflation as captured by the structural phillips curve.[29] a swathe of empirical evidence indicates that the structural connection between inflation and unemployment remains present both in the euro area and the us but evolves over time. in addition, while developments in economic slack can account for a significant share of inflation, it cannot fully explain inflation developments in more recent years due to the growing importance of factors beyond the business cycle.[30] looking to the f… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reconciling the macro and micro evidence on the effects of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-09-13 | 0.067 | early micro evidence on the effects of policy rates with the advent of more and more granular data, research shifted its focus to micro data on prices. researchers documented how individual firms set prices, aiming at building models that would be consistent with both the price-setting behaviour at the micro level and the effects of monetary policy in the macro data. meeting these two objectives simultaneously proved challenging. when economists studied the micro data underlying the consumer price index in the united states and other countries, they found that individual price changes are infrequent but typically large in absolute terms, in the order of 10%.[4] in their famous paper “menu costs and phillips curves”, mikhail golosov and robert lucas investigated the implications of this … |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.055 | challenges this claim, finding no noticeable slowdown in the rate of price resets (chart 8). work in progress in the eurosystem shows that the rate of price changes may even have increased during the pandemic. chart 8 frequency of price changes: a comparison of ipn (data: 1996-2001) and prisma (data: 2011-2017) results (percentages) @ processed food @ services g non-energy industrial goods om 45° 0.50 0.45 ® £0.40 : @ 0.35 — 5 0.30 paar ee ® ; gp (0:25 * ; o * °, = 20 ° ® < 0.15 = a2. : e° q 0.10 e°.@ e° c #0005 | ome - 0.00 es 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 ipn (data: 1996-2001) source: gautier et al. (2021), “new facts on consumer price rigidity in the euro area’, working paper series, ecb (forthcoming). note: the chart shows the frequency of price changes documented b… |
The most representative speeches:
5.112 Topic 114: real; interest; interest rate; nominal; equilibrium
5.112.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | real | 1 | 0.1114104 | real interest | 1 | 0.9995617 |
| 114 | interest | 2 | 0.1033976 | real interest rate | 2 | 0.9993865 |
| 114 | interest rate | 3 | 0.0857028 | real rate | 3 | 0.9991236 |
| 114 | nominal | 4 | 0.0374039 | nominal interest | 4 | 0.9988609 |
| 114 | equilibrium | 5 | 0.0365136 | equilibrium | 5 | 0.9988609 |
| 114 | real interest | 6 | 0.0357346 | nominal interest rate | 6 | 0.9988607 |
| 114 | real interest rate | 7 | 0.0355120 | equilibrium real | 7 | 0.9983348 |
| 114 | natural | 8 | 0.0221574 | natural rate | 8 | 0.9981601 |
| 114 | real rate | 9 | 0.0189301 | natural | 9 | 0.9976332 |
| 114 | nominal interest | 10 | 0.0151463 | equilibrium interest | 10 | 0.9976330 |
| 114 | nominal interest rate | 11 | 0.0150350 | equilibrium interest rate | 11 | 0.9976330 |
| 114 | natural rate | 12 | 0.0135883 | nominal | 12 | 0.9974552 |
| 114 | fall | 13 | 0.0106948 | equilibrium rate | 13 | 0.9973701 |
| 114 | decline | 14 | 0.0105835 | secular | 14 | 0.9972840 |
| 114 | equilibrium real | 15 | 0.0089142 | real | 15 | 0.9969242 |
5.112.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Claude Trichet: The ECB’s monetary policy strategy after the evaluation and clarification of May 2003 | Period_1 | 2003-12-02 | 0.203 | rationales for aiming for positive inflation (1): the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates the first argument is that maintaining a low positive rate of inflation reduces to very low levels the probability that nominal interest rates will approach their lower bound at zero. the event of nominal interest rates hitting the zero lower bound is linked to an increased uncertainty about the effectiveness of monetary policy. if this event were to coincide with a strong decline in demand, such a situation could complicate the central bank’s ability to avoid a deflationary episode. examples where countries reached the lower bound for nominal interest rates are rare. and even if this event were to materialise, a number of effective monetary policy actions are still possible at zero nominal… |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.169 |
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| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Real and nominal convergence ¿ policy challenges | Period_1 | 2007-11-21 | 0.164 |
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| Jürgen Stark: Delivering price stability - benefits and challenges | Period_1 | 2007-12-04 | 0.160 | why should central banks tolerate small positive rates of inflation? this insight brings me to my first question to experts. inflation is a tax on nominal wealth, so if asked individually about whether that tax should be positive or zero – or even negative, thus becoming a subsidy – agents in the economy would tend to choose the lowest possible tax. but assuming that the economy faces various frictions, and that those frictions interact with zero or negative inflation in ways that might be costly for the economy as a whole, theory argues that a “benign optimizer” would not necessarily opt for a zero or negative inflation tax. how are we to weigh inflation costs to individual agents against the benefits of price stability – defined as low but positive inflation – as an insurance mechanis… |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Careful with (the D) words! | Period_1 | 2008-11-27 | 0.156 | scenario, expectations of price changes turn negative and induce agents to postpone consumption and investment decisions. it’s the negative inflation expectations that pushes the (ex-ante) real interest rate up, even when the nominal interest rate is brought down to zero, above its equilibrium level. it is not clear what could push agents to expect negative inflation, and thereby enter a deflation scenario, rather than a standard disinflation. one possibility is that agents are not fully rational and form adaptive expectations. as they observe the start of the disinflation, with a negative inflation rate necessary to achieve the new equilibrium, they may think that the negative price change is likely to persist for some time. negative inflation expectations might thus become entrenched…. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy - reality or fiction? | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.381 | if inflation needs to be pushed up, central banks need to bring the real interest rate – that is, the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation – below what is called the “real equilibrium interest rate” – the rate at which all factors of production are at full capacity and inflation is stable. the level of the real equilibrium rate is determined by a number of structural factors, such as a country’s demographic situation or capacity to innovate.[5] the real equilibrium interest rate cannot be directly observed and instead has to be estimated. and almost all estimation methods show that the real equilibrium interest rate in the euro area has fallen markedly over the past 20 years (slide 10). indeed, many estimates have even been showing negative values in recent years. this suggests … |
| Vítor Constâncio: The challenge of low real interest rates for monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-16 | 0.343 | this decline in economic growth in advanced economies has led some scholars to bring back the concept of secular stagnation which was first introduced by alvin hansen in 1938 to portray the decline in u.s. economic growth he envisaged on account of the decline in innovation, population growth and investment opportunities. more recently, robert gordon (2016) and larry summers (2016) have reignited the debate on secular stagnation, with the former emphasising the role of supply-side factors and the latter on the chronic weakness of demand. both frameworks are not mutually exclusive as both supply and demand factors can interact and reinforce each other. for example, weak demand leads to unemployment and if this becomes prolonged, workers’ human capital can diminish, which in turn reduces … |
| Vítor Constâncio: The challenge of low real interest rates for monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-16 | 0.325 | the importance of the concept of a real equilibrium interest rate is that it provides a sort of anchor to a monetary economy. in reality, the concept defines an optimum to which the economy would move spontaneously in the long run if wrong policies would not disturb it. the concept was introduced in 1898 by knut wicksell as he became aware that in a credit- dominated economy, where banks create money, the traditional quantity theory of money could not explain inflation. he therefore introduced the theory of a natural real rate of interest, linked to the marginal productivity of capital that, in combination with market interest rates, would determine price dynamics. prices would increase if market rates were below the natural rate, and would decrease should the opposite be the case. as m… |
| Vítor Constâncio: The challenge of low real interest rates for monetary policy | Period_2 | 2016-06-16 | 0.306 | return on investment. this would discourage investment and consumption and generate recessionary and deflationary pressures. monetary policy is therefore part of the solution and not part of the problem. by ensuring low interest rates, monetary policy is supporting and accelerating the recovery and with this, the return to a normalisation of inflation and subsequent normalisation of interest rates. this starts to be visible in the u.s. where interest rates have started to increase. to demonstrate that monetary policy did not create per se the environment of low interest rates but is rather responding to a declining real rate of equilibrium, we need to have some empirical idea about a concept that is unobservable. there exist, however, many different methods to try to estimate this unobs… |
| Mario Draghi: Delivering a symmetric mandate with asymmetric tools - monetary policy in a context of low interest rates | Period_2 | 2016-06-08 | 0.298 | the need for such a buffer was explicitly acknowledged by the governing council in 2003 when we clarified our definition of price stability. 1 it has since helped countries to adjust competitiveness when required. initially, aiming at 2% allowed some core economies to lower relative prices in a fairly painless way, as other “catching up” economies had higher inflation rates and were pulling up the area average. today, the positions of those groups have reversed. but the rationale remains exactly the same. the second reason why a 2% objective helps absorb shocks is that it supports the implementation of monetary policy in adverse conditions. a small positive buffer creates more scope to support the economy through cutting nominal interest rates and reduces the likelihood of running up ag… |
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.245 | econometric estimates of the real equilibrium rate (percentages) mmm range of all natural rate estimates mum range of smoother estimates 6 ao 1-year real forward rate 9 years ahead 6 0 ro | y_n my 0 brand, c., bielecki, m. and penalver, a. (eds.) (2018), “the natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy”, occasional paper series, no 217, ecb, december; brand, c., goy, g.; lemke, w. (2020), “natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality”, dnb working papers, no 666, de nederlandsche bank, january; ajevskis, viktors (2018): “the natural rate of interest: information derived from a shadow rate model,” latvijas banka working paper, (2/2018); brand, c. and mazelis, f. (2019) “taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest.” working paper s… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.244 | headline and core inflation in the euro area (annual percentage changes) ome 1 | cp ewe hicp excluding energy and food (hicpx) eurostat and ecb. note: the latest observations are for february 2022 (flash release). chart 2 shows the dynamics since 1999 of the estimated equilibrium nominal interest rate, which is constructed as the sum of the two per cent inflation target and the equilibrium real interest rate, which is the real interest rate that is consistent with full utilisation of available resources and inflation steady at the target. the trend decline in equilibrium interest rates was a first-order issue in the strategy review exercise. in particular, a low equilibrium interest rate means that any robust monetary policy strategy must take into account the effective lower bound on p… |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.209 | the natural rate of interest is the real interest rate level that contemporaneously brings output into line with its potential and stabilises inflation at the central bank’s target in the absence of transitory shocks or nominal rigidities. see brand, c., bielecki, m. and penalver, a. (eds.) (2018), “the natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy”, occasional paper series, no 217, ecb, december. |
| Fabio Panetta: Normalising monetary policy in non-normal times | Period_3 | 2022-05-31 | 0.144 | normal does not mean theoretical second, the normalisation process should not be assessed against unobservable reference points, such as the natural (or neutral) rate of interest[3] and some optimal or “normal” size and composition of the central bank’s balance sheet in the long run. these concepts are only vague guideposts at the best of times, and they are particularly fraught with uncertainty in the current environment. before the pandemic, the real natural rate of interest for the euro area was estimated to range from just over 0% to less than -2%, depending on the model used.[4] in fact, proxies of real rates are already at the higher end of that range – for instance, the one-year forward real rate nine years ahead [5] recently increased significantly, reaching 0%. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.115 | our monetary policy decisions have also contributed to substantially raising real rates over most horizons beyond the very short term. for instance, the forward real rate at the 1yr1yr horizon has gone up by about 300 bps since december 2021 (chart 11). while this increase in the near term has primarily been driven by the real expectations component embedded in forward real rates, longer-term real forward rates increased mostly due to higher real term premia. furthermore, the 10-year real overnight index swap (ois) rate recently edged into positive territory – to levels not seen for over a decade.[34] these positive levels are particularly remarkable as the whole term structure of euro area real rates had been negative for many years reflecting a host of domestic and global factors. |
The most representative speeches:
5.113 Topic 115: speech; series; paper; european; bulletin
5.113.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | speech | 1 | 0.0386297 | bulletin | 1 | 0.9992991 |
| 115 | series | 2 | 0.0355842 | economic bulletin | 2 | 0.9992111 |
| 115 | paper | 3 | 0.0347314 | bulletin issue | 3 | 0.9991231 |
| 115 | european | 4 | 0.0344878 | economic bulletin issue | 4 | 0.9988604 |
| 115 | bulletin | 5 | 0.0282749 | occasional paper | 5 | 0.9983780 |
| 115 | paper series | 6 | 0.0230365 | occasional | 6 | 0.9980725 |
| 115 | issue | 7 | 0.0218183 | paper series | 7 | 0.9976323 |
| 115 | frankfurt | 8 | 0.0201128 | box | 8 | 0.9970192 |
| 115 | economic bulletin | 9 | 0.0187728 | occasional paper series | 9 | 0.9967528 |
| 115 | main | 10 | 0.0185291 | op cit | 10 | 0.9964057 |
| 115 | bulletin issue | 11 | 0.0162145 | panetta | 11 | 0.9964023 |
| 115 | economic bulletin issue | 12 | 0.0159709 | series | 12 | 0.9961315 |
| 115 | occasional | 13 | 0.0124380 | lane p.r | 13 | 0.9960931 |
| 115 | european central bank | 14 | 0.0121944 | p.r | 14 | 0.9959189 |
| 115 | november | 15 | 0.0117071 | op | 15 | 0.9950058 |
5.113.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Economic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic (why) are they different? | Period_1 | 2008-11-11 | 0.283 | 5 for the euro area, see dhyne, e. et al. (2005), price-setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual consumer price data, ecb working paper no 524; for the united states, see bils, m. and p. j. klenow (2004), “some evidence on the importance of sticky prices”, journal of political economy, vol. 112, no 5, pp. 947-985. 6 see, for instance, sahuc and smets (op. cit.). 7 see sahuc and smets (op. cit.) as well as cristiano, motto and rostagno (op. cit.). 8 see the article entitled the “activism” of monetary policy published in the november 2006 issue of the ecb’s monthly bulletin. see also j.-c. trichet (2006), chairman’s speech delivered at the conference entitled “the ecb and its watchers ix”, held in frankfurt am main on 7 september 2007. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Further integrating euro area economies ¿ some reflections | Period_1 | 2006-07-14 | 0.257 | 6 see duval and elmeskov (2006) “the effects of emu on structural reforms in labour and product markets,” ecb working paper series no 557, and blanchard and giavazzi (2003) “macroeconomic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor markets,” quarterly journal of economics, august, 118(3), pp. 879-907. 7 see giannone and reichlin (2006) “trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?”, ecb working paper series no 555, benalal, diaz del hoyo, pierluigi and vidalis (2006), “output growth differentials across the euro area countries: some stylised facts”, ecb occasional paper series no 45, and ecb (2004) “sectoral specialisation in the eu: a macroeconomic perspective”, ecb occasional paper no 19. 8 see cappiello, hördahl, kadareja, and… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The governance of globalisation | Period_1 | 2008-05-13 | 0.232 | 3 for a detailed look at the macroeconomic impacts of trade globalisation, see the ecb monthly bulletin article entitled “globalisation, trade and the euro area macroeconomy”, january 2008). 4 see the box entitled “effects of the rising trade integration of low-cost countries on euro area import prices” in the august 2006 issue of the ecb’s monthly bulletin for further details. 5 see ecb (2008), op. cit. |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the euro area and its future | Period_1 | 2008-07-15 | 0.202 | de santis, r., and b. gérard, “financial integration, international portfolio choice and the european monetary union”, ecb working paper no 626, 2006. dhyne, e., and l.j. alvarez, h. le bihan, g. veronese, j. hoffmann, n. jonker, p. lunnemann, f. rumler and j.vilmunen, (2006) “price changes in the euro area and the united states: some facts from individual consumer price data”, american economic association, journal of economic perspectives, vol. 20(2), spring, pp 171-192. duisenberg, w., “jean monnet memorial lecture”, 2000. duval, r., and j. elmeskov, “the effects of emu on structural reforms in labour and product markets”, ecb working paper no 596, 2006. ecb, “inflation differentials in the euro area: potential causes and policy implications”, ecb report released on 16 september 2003… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Economic integration and adjustment processes in the euro area | Period_1 | 2007-06-14 | 0.198 | border labour mobility within an enlarged eu”, ecb occasional paper no 52, 2006. see also “action plan for skills and mobility”, european commission, 2002. 7 the decline in inflation differentials has been impressive. at the beginning of the 1990s, the difference in inflation rates across the euro area countries was on average around 6 percentage points (standard deviation measured in unweighted terms). last year, the inflation differential was only 0.7 percentage point. moreover, the current degree of inflation dispersion among the euro area countries is practically the same as that seen in the united states. as to real gdp growth rates across the euro area countries, the difference has been fluctuating around a level of 2 percentage points over the past few decades, with no apparent u… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy - lifting the veil of effectiveness | Period_2 | 2019-12-18 | 0.437 | european central bank directorate general communications sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 frankfurt am main, germany tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, e-mail: media@ecb.europa.eu website: www.ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. copyright 2019, european central bank european central bank directorate general communications sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 frankfurt am main, germany tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, e-mail: media@ecb.europa.eu website: www.ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. copyright 2019, european central bank |
| Fabio Panetta: Asymmetric risks, asymmetric reaction - monetary policy in the pandemic | Period_2 | 2020-09-22 | 0.346 | european central bank directorate general communications sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 frankfurt am main, germany tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, email: media@ecb.europa.eu website: www.ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts copyright 2020, european central bank |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.326 | [20] for a more detailed discussion of the channels of transmission of the app and its impact on the euro area yield curve, see lane, p. r. (2019), “the yield curve and monetary policy”, public lecture for the centre for finance and the department of economics at university college london, london, 25 november. [21] see bernanke, b., op. cit. [22] see eser, f., lemke, w., nyholm, k., radde, s. and vladu, a. l. (2019), “tracing the impact of the ecb’s asset purchase programme on the yield curve”, working paper series, no 2293, ecb. european central bank directorate general communications sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 frankfurt am main, germany tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, e-mail: media@ecb.europa.eu website: www.ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. cop… |
| Peter Praet: Maintaining price stability in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-02-03 | 0.307 | 1 i would like to thank sören radde and fédéric holm-hadulla for their contributions to this speech. 2 see ciccarelli, m. and osbat, c. (eds.), “low inflation in the euro area: causes and consequences”, occasional paper series, no 181, european central bank, frankfurt am main, january 2017, and the references cited therein. 3 at the level of individual euro area countries, a large proportion of specifications also displays a significant phillips curve slope, albeit with the exception of some euro area countries, probably on account of confounding factors related to global exposures and persistent structural changes. however, the finding that domestic cyclical conditions were an important driver of the disinflationary period from 2012 to 2014 is common to all countries. 4 theoretically, … |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.287 | 30/09/2020 the monetary policy strategy review: some preliminary considerations [8] jarocinski, m. and lenza, m. (2018), “an inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area”, journal of money, credit and banking. [9] bobeica, e., ciccarelli, m. and vansteenkiste, i. (2019), “the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area,” working paper series, no 2235, european central bank, february; hahn, e. (2019), “how are wage developments passed through to prices in the euro area? evidence from a bvar model”, applied economics, preprint, published online on 1 november; nickel, c., bobeica, e., koester, g., lis, e. and porqueddu, m. (eds.) (2019), “understanding low wage growth in the euro area and european countries”, occasional paper series, no 232, ecb, frankfu… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.462 | european central bank directorate general communications > 60314 frankfurt am main, germany > +49 69 1344 7455 > media@ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts copyright 2021, european central bank directorate general communications > 60314 frankfurt am main, germany > +49 69 1344 7455 > media@ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts copyright 2021, european central bank |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.415 | monetary policy instruments since 2014”, occasional paper series, no 278, ecb; and work stream on employment (2021), “employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area”, occasional paper series, no 275, ecb. 11. lane, p.r. (2022), “bottlenecks and monetary policy”, the ecb blog, 10 february. 12. the rising prices of manufacturing exports have partly offset rising import prices. 13. lagarde, c. (2022), “monetary policy in an uncertain world”, speech at the “ecb and its watchers conference xxii” conference, 17 march. contact european central bank directorate general communications sonnemannstrasse 20 60314 frankfurt am main, germany +49 69 1344 7455 media@ecb.europa.eu reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. media contacts copyright 2022, e… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Prospects for inflation - sneezes and breezes | Period_3 | 2021-11-14 | 0.406 | with production networks and input-output linkages. see ghassibe, m. (2021), “endogenous production networks and non-linear monetary transmission”; rubbo, e. (2021), “aggregation and redistribution in new keynesian economies; papers presented at this conference. 21. lagarde, c. (2021), “monetary policy during an atypical recovery,” speech at the ecb forum on central banking “beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy”, september. 22. see also work stream on digitalisation (2021), “digitalisation: channels, impacts and implications for monetary policy in the euro area”, occasional paper series, no 266, ecb, september; work stream on globalisation (2021), “the implications of globalisation for the ecb monetary policy strategy”, occasional paper series, no 263, ecb, september. cont… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-07 | 0.391 | margins increase. see gumiel, j. e., and hahn, e. (2018), “the role of wages in the pick-up of inflation’, economic bulletin, |ssue 5, ecb, frankfurt am main. 20. see malmendier, u. and sheng shen, l. (2018), “scarred consumption’, nber working paper, no 24696. 21. see lagarde, c. (2020), “monetary policy in a pandemic emergency“, keynote speech at the ecb forum on central banking, frankfurt am main, 11 november. 22. see mckinsey (2020), “how covid-19 has pushed companies over the technology tipping point— and transformed business forever’, october. 23. see basso, g., boeri, t., caiumi, a. and paccagnella, m. (2020), “the new hazardous jobs and worker reallocation”, oecd social, employment and migration working papers no. 246. 24. kouvavas, o., osbat, c., reinelt, t. and vansteenkiste, … |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.351 |
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The most representative speeches:
5.114 Topic 116: growth; productivity; productivity growth; labour; population
5.114.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | growth | 1 | 0.1227032 | productivity | 1 | 0.9998248 |
| 116 | productivity | 2 | 0.0938277 | productivity growth | 2 | 0.9998247 |
| 116 | productivity growth | 3 | 0.0365481 | population | 3 | 0.9994743 |
| 116 | labour | 4 | 0.0304195 | age | 4 | 0.9985542 |
| 116 | population | 5 | 0.0194586 | labour productivity | 5 | 0.9984229 |
| 116 | age | 6 | 0.0187514 | technological | 6 | 0.9980725 |
| 116 | factor | 7 | 0.0187514 | technology | 7 | 0.9976336 |
| 116 | development | 8 | 0.0181621 | age population | 8 | 0.9970168 |
| 116 | technology | 9 | 0.0150978 | innovation | 9 | 0.9966696 |
| 116 | employment | 10 | 0.0145085 | factor productivity | 10 | 0.9961390 |
| 116 | technological | 11 | 0.0130942 | labour productivity growth | 11 | 0.9958800 |
| 116 | labour productivity | 12 | 0.0127406 | total factor | 12 | 0.9958693 |
| 116 | average | 13 | 0.0126227 | total factor productivity | 13 | 0.9957823 |
| 116 | innovation | 14 | 0.0115620 | technological progress | 14 | 0.9955675 |
| 116 | unite | 15 | 0.0108548 | performance | 15 | 0.9953532 |
5.114.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy in a changing world ¿ commitment, strategy and credibility | Period_1 | 2006-12-07 | 0.463 |
|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the euro area and its future | Period_1 | 2008-07-15 | 0.457 |
|
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Growth and inflation in the euro area - the importance of productivity in the services sector | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.447 | wholesale and retail trade sector, have been the main reasons for the gap, followed by finance and business services (excluding real estate). in the wholesale and retail trade sector, for instance, hourly labour productivity grew on average by 1.4% in the euro area, while it grew on average by 4.6% on the other side of the atlantic. what lies behind these labour productivity developments? specific policies aimed at increasing employment, particularly in the unskilled segment of the labour market, have certainly contributed to the slowdown in labour productivity growth, especially in services, which are usually more labour-intensive. however, developments in labour supply are only part of the story. to a large extent, the slowdown in labour productivity growth can be attributed to a mark… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the euro area | Period_1 | 2008-10-30 | 0.440 | euro area. 2 let me elaborate on the three main factors underlying trends in real gdp growth: working-age population growth, labour utilisation and labour productivity. 3 • working-age population growth remains one important factor explaining disparities in real gdp growth between the euro area and the fastest growing industrial economies. over the past 20 years, the average contribution to real gdp growth from growth of the working-age population has been approximately 0.8 percentage point higher in the united states than in the euro area. 4 looking ahead, the euro area faces the prospect of an ageing population, and the labour force could therefore become a strong constraint on the growth potential of the euro area. • as for labour utilisation, over the past ten years, and despite sub… |
| Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell: Challenges for the Euro at ten | Period_1 | 2008-12-12 | 0.436 |
|
| Mario Draghi: On the importance of policy alignment to fulfil our economic potential | Period_2 | 2016-06-09 | 0.247 | spanish labour market reform in 2012 has been a factor supporting employment growth since then.[14] this should give encouragement to reforming countries to continue their efforts – and in particular those where high unemployment has persisted for so long that it has been allowed to become a social norm. but the challenge is not just moving people from unemployment into employment, it is also raising the size of the workforce – which is where participation comes in. though the euro area fares quite well in international comparisons, participation rates in some member states remain relatively low, with a roughly 15 percentage point difference between the best and worst performers. this implies that there is also a latent potential to raise employment on this margin with the right structu… |
| Philip R Lane: Welcome address - “Challenges in the digital age” | Period_2 | 2019-07-15 | 0.184 | instance, a recent ecb survey of large euro area companies highlighted that firms see the potential for digital technologies to increase productivity growth, in particular by promoting knowledge sharing and enabling more efficient production processes.8 productivity growth plays an important role in the conduct of monetary policy. in principle, higher productivity growth spurs investment, and expectations of higher future income encourage consumers to spend more today. moreover, higher productivity growth increases the equilibrium real rate of interest, which is a central factor in calibrating monetary policy. in practice, however, despite the promise of increased efficiencies thanks to digital technologies, the productivity growth that we have seen in europe, and indeed most advanced e… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the euro area problem | Period_2 | 2015-11-25 | 0.179 | crisis intensified in september 2008, the interest rate on the ecb’s main refinancing operations for banks stood at 4.25 percent. by may 2009, the ecb had reduced this rate to 1 percent, while simultaneously cutting the rate on the deposit facility to 25 basis points. the significant decline of inflation since the later part of 2013 led us to further reduce interest rates during last year and the interest rate on the main refinancing operations currently stands at 5 basis points, whereas the interest rate on the deposit facility is –20 basis points. why did the governing council reduce the policy rates to such low levels? policy rates are defined in nominal terms, they have a component related to inflation and another associated to real economic growth. monetary policy searches for a ne… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy - reality or fiction? | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.178 | while annual productivity growth in the euro area in the 1980s was, on average, still around 2%, today it is somewhat less than half of that (slide 12, left-hand side). and the working-age population in the euro area has for some time even been in decline. demographic developments mean that this decline is highly likely to continue in the coming decades (slide 12, right-hand side). in addition, in recent decades, the leading industrial nations have undergone massive structural change, owing not least to digitalisation, and have been moving away from capital-intensive manufacturing industries towards less capital-intensive service industries. |
| Vítor Constâncio: Monetary policy and the European recovery | Period_2 | 2015-06-02 | 0.168 | concluding remarks let me conclude. the economic recovery in the euro area is now broader and it is firming itself but still in need of achieving higher investment to make it more self- sustained. ecb policies are working and making a significant contribution to the normalisation of economic conditions in the short term. let me add that they also help the medium-term as, by closing the negative output gap, they reduce the detrimental of effect of hysteresis on the labour supply and the capital stock. a prolonged recession contributes to reduce the qualification and employability of the unemployed, and the capital stock becomes less productive, as replacement investment subsides. on the back of the fall in capital accumulation and labour utilisation, euro area potential output growth dec… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.097 | lower supply may limit impact of slowdown in aggregate demand on capacity utilisation the first reason relates to the implications of changes in the labour share for changes in capacity utilisation. whether, and by how much, a decline in aggregate demand will create conditions of excess capacity critically depends on the impact of current shocks on the supply side.[18] if, as is likely, both supply and demand weaken, the net impact on economic slack, and hence prices, will be more difficult to anticipate. the damage from the current crisis to the supply side is likely to be significant.[19] energy-related production cuts and energy-saving measures directly curb potential output, while the sharp increase in gas prices will render some energy-intensive activities unprofitable. insolvencie… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.097 | increases larger than 2023 increases) suggests that wage-setters understand that there is a temporary component to the currently high inflation rate. in assessing wage developments, it is also relevant that, under typical conditions and allowing for labour productivity growth at about one per cent, nominal wage growth at three per cent is consistent with the two per cent inflation target. although so far only a relatively small number of wage contracts have been renegotiated since inflation started to increase strongly in the second half of 2021, the outcomes from the latest wage settlements might provide a helpful guide to the likely outcomes of upcoming negotiations and contribute to a more accurate assessment of realised progress in underlying inflation.[5],[6],[7] |
| Isabel Schnabel: Finding the right mix - monetary-fiscal interaction at times of high inflation | Period_3 | 2022-11-24 | 0.085 | euro area firms continue to add new jobs, and unemployment rates remain at record low levels despite elevated risks of a technical recession in the winter. finally, there is increasing evidence that the pandemic and the energy crisis may have more permanent negative effects on current and future potential output, implying that inflationary pressures may persist if demand does not slow down accordingly.[5] potential output growth may be constrained through different channels. the first is labour scarcity. a significant share of euro area firms continue to identify labour shortages as a major factor limiting production in manufacturing and the services sector (slide 6, left-hand side). research shows that the pandemic has led to lower labour participation in sectors where it is hard to wo… |
| Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-21 | 0.076 | renewables. and in the short term, reforming europe’s energy markets will be critical so as to avoid recurring volatility in energy prices while we diversify away from russian gas. second, europe’s “strategic autonomy” agenda will be pivotal in making growth more resilient to the changing nature of globalisation. in a world fragmenting into blocs, it will allow us to retain access to critical technologies and resources, both through reshoring strategic industries[6] and securing strategic alliances. and that will in turn underpin the energy transition, which is highly resource-intensive. electric vehicles, for example, use around six times more minerals than conventional cars.[7] third, to cope with shrinking global labour supply, as well as our own ageing societies, we will have to sta… |
| Fabio Panetta: Mind the step - calibrating monetary policy in a volatile environment | Period_3 | 2022-11-03 | 0.066 | panetta, f. (2021), “patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery”, speech at sciences po, 24 november. 8. in the euro area, the pick-up of wage growth has been more moderate and gradual than in the united states. the annual growth rate of compensation per employee is still distorted by the impact of the government measures to prevent job losses during the pandemic. negotiated wage growth, which is less affected by these measures, stood at 2.4% (including volatile one-off payments) in the second quarter of 2022. 9. to be consistent with the 2% inflation target under typical conditions, nominal wage growth should be equal to productivity growth plus 2%, which the september ecb staff projections expect to be the case in 2024. |
The most representative speeches:
5.115 Topic 117: analysis; decision; forecast; information; policy decision
5.115.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | analysis | 1 | 0.0635021 | policy decision | 1 | 0.9987732 |
| 117 | decision | 2 | 0.0425973 | inflation forecast | 2 | 0.9982447 |
| 117 | forecast | 3 | 0.0297627 | analytic | 3 | 0.9981145 |
| 117 | information | 4 | 0.0280125 | monetary policy decision | 4 | 0.9980724 |
| 117 | policy decision | 5 | 0.0261651 | forecast | 5 | 0.9979822 |
| 117 | strategy | 6 | 0.0233454 | analysis | 6 | 0.9978929 |
| 117 | assessment | 7 | 0.0207201 | judgement | 7 | 0.9973239 |
| 117 | approach | 8 | 0.0184838 | information | 8 | 0.9967510 |
| 117 | framework | 9 | 0.0170253 | rely | 9 | 0.9962323 |
| 117 | monetary policy decision | 10 | 0.0169281 | approach | 10 | 0.9960501 |
| 117 | assess | 11 | 0.0152751 | analytic framework | 11 | 0.9955133 |
| 117 | good | 12 | 0.0129416 | complexity | 12 | 0.9953901 |
| 117 | basis | 13 | 0.0123582 | decision | 13 | 0.9950713 |
| 117 | development | 14 | 0.0120665 | check | 14 | 0.9950496 |
| 117 | indicator | 15 | 0.0117748 | economic analysis | 15 | 0.9949174 |
5.115.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The current state of the European economy and the ECB’s monetary policy concept | Period_1 | 2004-07-20 | 0.447 | robustness of the framework the appropriateness of a monetary policy strategy cannot be evaluated by means of just one particular model or class of models. rather, a good candidate strategy needs to perform well across a variety of empirically plausible models, and it has to allow for the judgement of policy-making bodies. the ecb’s analyses and economic perspectives of the risks to price stability are founded on a two-pillar framework. the two-pillar approach permits us to convey to the public the notion of a diversified analysis and it ensures robust decision-making based on different analytical perspectives. these two perspectives are referred to as “economic analysis” and “monetary analysis”. the economic analysis focuses mainly on the assessment of current economic and financial de… |
| Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_1 | 2000-10-05 | 0.404 |
|
| From the EMI to the ECB (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 30 May 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-05-31 | 0.377 | monetary phenomenon over the medium term, at shorter horizons it will be influenced by many other variables. changes in international commodity prices, such as the price of oil, will influence developments in consumer price inflation. demand and cost pressures can also influence price developments in the shorter term. moreover, policymakers will generally need to tailor their actions to the prevailing economic circumstances, since the impact of monetary policy on the future evolution of the price level at any specific time will depend on a host of factors which are not captured by monetary data. analysis under the second pillar is intended to reveal this information, giving policymakers greater insight into shorter-run price dynamics and their implications for monetary policy. monetary … |
| Monetary policy in a new environment | Period_1 | 2000-10-05 | 0.354 | macroeconomic forecast. forecasts are only one - albeit important - input into the policy process. they are always evaluated in the context of other analyses and indicators. this is, by the way, true for all central banks. to my knowledge, there is no central bank in the world which bases its monetary policy decisions solely on a mechanical reaction to an inflation forecast. one reason for this is that macroeconomic forecasts suffer from a number of practical shortcomings which mean that they cannot constitute the only input into policy decisions. for example, in practice the information from monetary aggregates is not incorporated into conventional macroeconometric forecasting models. however, monetary analysis is an important piece of information for assessing risks to price stability… |
| Otmar Issing: The euro - a stable currency for Europe | Period_1 | 2001-02-22 | 0.354 | this tension was resolved - and in my view this is the optimal solution - by announcing a quantitative definition of price stability and by adopting an encompassing approach to analysing and assessing information relevant to detect risks to price stability. defining price stability as “a year-on-year increase in the harmonised index of consumer prices of below 2%”, along with the emphasis on the medium term, was designed to enhance clarity, to anchor expectations and to provide a yardstick against which the new independent institution could be held accountable. likewise, the eclectic but systematic approach to the processing of information relevant for assessing risks to price stability, which we call our two-pillar strategy of monetary policy, was intended to guarantee that no piece of… |
| Christine Lagarde: The monetary policy strategy review - some preliminary considerations | Period_2 | 2020-09-30 | 0.176 | we also need to reflect on our two pillar approach for assessing developments in the economy, which uses both economic and monetary analysis. cross-checking between the two helps determine the risks to price stability. the monetary pillar could in principle be enhanced to provide information on financial stability which – over longer time horizons – could be relevant for the inflation outlook. |
| Christine Lagarde: Press Conference | Period_2 | 2021-07-09 | 0.139 | assess the contribution of housing costs to inflation. our new strategy confirms the medium-term orientation of our monetary policy, which, since the inception of the ecb, has been an important principle of the strategy. it recognises that monetary policy cannot and should not attempt to fine-tune short-term developments in inflation. monetary policy affects the economy with variable time lags. the medium-term orientation allows us to be forward-looking and respond flexibly to fluctuations in output and inflation. flexibility is important, since the appropriate policy response depends on the circumstances as well as on the source, magnitude and persistence of the shocks affecting the economy. the medium-term orientation also allows us to cater for other considerations relevant to the pu… |
| Vítor Constâncio: Past and future of the European Central Bank monetary policy | Period_2 | 2018-05-11 | 0.106 | the announcement of a reference value for the growth of a broad monetary aggregate; and (iii) a broadly based assessment of the outlook for future price developments and the risks to price stability in the euro area as a whole.” there was clearly a dominant first pillar with a reference value initially set at 4.5% growth rate for m3. the text further explained: “to signal the prominent role it has assigned to money, the governing council has announced a quantitative reference value for monetary growth as one pillar of the overall stability oriented strategy”. so, some trace of technical monetarism[2] was implicitly present. in 2006, explaining the origin of the “two pillars”, otmar issing quoted former president wim duisenberg’s reply to a question by a journalist in 1999: “it is not a … |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.100 | 02/03/2021 the compass of monetary policy: favourable financing conditions in addition, as is evident from the public accounts, each monetary policy meeting is informed by comprehensive analyses of recent financial market developments and the latest macroeconomic and inflation indicators, while the contribution of our monetary policy measures to financing conditions is extensively analysed. accordingly, the quarterly macroeconomic projections exercise and the analyses discussed in our monetary policy meetings help to inform the governing council’s collective assessment |
| Vítor Constâncio: Developing models for policy analysis in central banks | Period_2 | 2017-09-28 | 0.098 | recessions. there is justification for rethinking a more active role for fiscal policy, following the recent papers by auerbach and gorodnichenko (2017)5. a reconsideration of the effectiveness of both macro policies has become even more necessary in view of the two major problems that central banks are now confronted with: first, the lingering low inflation associated with flatter phillips curves that impairs the policy transmission and, second, the need for policy instruments to deal with the next recession, even if a mild one. the various points i just listed are some of the relevant aspects of the on-going revision of macroeconomics and justify the point recently made by blanchard that we need different types of models to understand, forecast and analyse the economy and the policies… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.161 | over the medium term. the new monetary policy strategy also contains a general commitment to base monetary policy decisions, including the evaluation of the proportionality of its decisions and potential side effects, on an integrated assessment of all relevant factors. compared to the previous two-pillar analytical approach, there is an emphasis under the new integrated framework on taking into account the inherent macrofinancial links between the real economy, the monetary system and the financial system in terms of the underlying structures, shocks and adjustment processes. this framework reflects the importance of monitoring the transmission mechanism in calibrating monetary policy instruments and the recognition that financial stability is a precondition for price stability. |
| Frank Elderson: Proportioning policy action to the evidence - making the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank concrete | Period_3 | 2022-03-25 | 0.152 | police had exceeded their mandate. to put it simply: the ruling made it clear that the police were only responsible for public security, and not for safeguarding aesthetic interests. the verdict signified an important step in the development of modern societies. acknowledging that their actions intrude on the lives of citizens, public sector authorities began limiting their actions to what is strictly necessary to achieve the established objectives. since then, proportionality has evolved to become a fundamental principle in many legal systems. the proportionality principle is a cornerstone of the institutional structure of the european union, laid down in article 5 of the treaty on the european union. and all its institutions are bound by it in the pursuit of their respective mandates…. |
| Christine Lagarde: Introductory statement - European Parliament plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report | Period_3 | 2022-02-17 | 0.130 | let me now turn to the topic of how we are making our monetary policy strategy fit for today, as well as future challenges. last year, the ecb and the eurosystem concluded their first strategy review in almost two decades. i would like to reiterate my gratitude to the econ committee for its valuable input, and i am very pleased to read in your report that you welcome the outcome. our new strategy will ensure we have a strong foundation to guide us in the conduct of monetary policy in the years to come. we are now working hard to put it into practice. i will briefly discuss three areas highlighted in your report in which the review is having an impact on our daily work. the first area is how we take our monetary policy decisions. in your report, you highlight the importance of ensuring t… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.100 | today, | wish to frame the current monetary policy debate in the context of the monetary policy strategy of the ecb.” | will not dwell on the latest conjunctural developments or speculate on the evolution of the medium-term outlook for the economy and inflation. our monetary policy meeting next week will provide the best opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of economic and financial developments and the implications for near-term and medium-term inflation dynamics. in this respect, the schedule for the march staff projections exercise has been revised in order to take into account the implications of the russian invasion of ukraine. the revised schedule also means that today’s eurostat inflation release will be incorporated in the projections that will be considered at next week’s… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.077 | econometric estimates of the euro area nominal natural rate of interest r° (percentage per annum) range of all natural rate estimates mmm range of smoother estimates 6 ex ©|s 1-year forward rate 9 years ahead wgem report “the natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy”, occasional paper, no 217; ajevskis (2020); brand, goy, lemke (2020); brand, mazelis (2019); fiorentini, galesi, pérez-quirds, sentana (2018); geiger and schupp (2018); holston, laubach, williams (2017); jarocinski (2017); johannsen and mertens (2021), refinitiv. notes: the natural nominal rate estimates are constructed by adding the inflation target of 2% to all real values. ranges span point estimates across models to reflect model uncertainty and no other source of r* uncertainty. t… |
The most representative speeches:
5.116 Topic 118: interest; interest rate; cut; key; negative
5.116.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | interest | 1 | 0.3019364 | interest rate policy | 1 | 0.9993863 |
| 118 | interest rate | 2 | 0.2641302 | policy interest | 2 | 0.9991236 |
| 118 | cut | 3 | 0.0199085 | policy interest rate | 3 | 0.9989484 |
| 118 | key | 4 | 0.0151958 | interest rate environment | 4 | 0.9985967 |
| 118 | negative | 5 | 0.0148816 | rate policy | 5 | 0.9985102 |
| 118 | rate policy | 6 | 0.0123682 | rate cut | 6 | 0.9985102 |
| 118 | lower | 7 | 0.0115304 | interest rate | 7 | 0.9984210 |
| 118 | interest rate policy | 8 | 0.0114256 | interest | 8 | 0.9984205 |
| 118 | policy interest | 9 | 0.0111115 | key interest rate | 9 | 0.9982473 |
| 118 | policy interest rate | 10 | 0.0105878 | rate environment | 10 | 0.9982467 |
| 118 | negative interest | 11 | 0.0097500 | negative interest | 11 | 0.9978534 |
| 118 | negative interest rate | 12 | 0.0097500 | negative interest rate | 12 | 0.9977657 |
| 118 | rate cut | 13 | 0.0095406 | key interest | 13 | 0.9977216 |
| 118 | level | 14 | 0.0090169 | lower | 14 | 0.9977206 |
| 118 | key interest rate | 15 | 0.0088075 | cut | 15 | 0.9977184 |
5.116.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: The ECB’s response to the crisis | Period_1 | 2011-05-30 | 0.126 | after the intensification of the crisis in mid-september 2008, as inflationary pressures receded, in full consistency with our mandate, we decided to reduce our policy interest rate rapidly between october 2008 and may 2009, from 4.25% to 1%. we reduced the interest rate to a level and at a pace that has not been experienced in the countries of the euro area at any time in recent history. with the benefit of hindsight, the interest rate decisions we took during the crisis have proved successful. over the past four years we have maintained a very solid anchoring of inflation expectations. our determination to preserve price stability in the medium term has allowed us to avoid the materialisation of the risk of inflation as well as of the risk of deflation. in most recent months, with the… |
| Otmar Issing: The ECB and the euro - the first five years | Period_1 | 2004-05-21 | 0.122 | in addition, the construction and publication of central bank forecasts can raise a whole number of problems which severely limit the relevance of such forecasts for monetary policy. one of the main problems lies in constructing a forecast which is consistent with the underlying interest rate path. exogenous assumptions with regard to the interest rate path - such as assuming constant interest rates - typically lead to instabilities or indeterminacy.16 at the same time, bringing exogenous assumptions on the interest rate policy into line with the expectations of economic agents underlying these forecasts in a credible and convincing way constitutes a considerable challenge in practice. the aforementioned simulation of alternative interest rate paths is thus barely practicable. an altern… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.121 | europe. in december, although i cannot quote you directly, you stated, much in the same way as today, that following the cut in interest rates the situation with regard to interest rates in europe would be settled. it is now the beginning of april and we see obviously a further cut in interest rates. is there not the danger, mr. duisenberg, that this process is about to begin again and that, after a certain period, owing to a lack of willingness in europe and in germany, in particular, to bring about structural reforms, the whole rigmarole will begin once more and you will be forced, yet again, to cut interest rates? duisenberg: well, we do not see that danger arising from the level which we now have reached. we hope that our call - as i expressed it today - to governments to pursue a r… |
| Mr. Duisenberg elucidates the European System of Central Banks’ stability-oriented monetary policy strategy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 10 Nov 98) | Period_1 | 1998-11-20 | 0.120 | clearly, the governing council could have decided to announce some form of inflation forecast and justify policy decisions by reference to it. interest rate increases or decreases could then be explained on the basis that the inflation forecast pointed to threats to price stability. however, this presentation of monetary strategy to the public is likely to involve a circular argument. for example, interest rate increases would be justified on the basis that the inflation forecast pointed to an inflation rate higher than that consistent with price stability. however, critical observers might soon argue that the inflation forecast was above the target precisely because there was a perceived need to raise interest rates. simply publishing a forecast does not explain why interest rates need… |
| Mr Duisenberg reports at a press conference on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 8 Apr 1999) | Period_1 | 1999-04-13 | 0.115 | do you feel completely certain that this interest rate cut represents no danger of inflation to any part of the euro zone, i am thinking, in particular, of smaller, more dynamic economies, such as the irish one. and secondly, is it fair to conclude that the opposition to a rate cut came from the representatives of those countries? duisenberg: i will not allude to any opposition by anyone in the governing council. we do believe that this rate cut, otherwise we would not have done it, will not pose any additional threat of inflationary pressures arising either in small or in large countries. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.272 | by contrast, under a negative interest rate policy, where future rate cuts are possible, the distribution of rate expectations is more symmetric, putting downward pressure on longer-maturity interest rates. rate expectations can even be skewed downwards if the negative rate policy is flanked by communication that the interest rate might be reduced further. in this vein, the ecb’s forward guidance has reinforced the negative interest rate policy by stating that the governing council expects the ecb’s key interest rates “to remain at their present or lower levels for an extended period of time”. eonia forward curve and its risk-neutral density: before the negative interest rate policy (left side) and after its introduction (right side) |
| Philip R Lane: Interview in Handelsblatt | Period_2 | 2019-10-01 | 0.236 | but it can only help for governments to have a good understanding of how our monetary policy works. that’s why we’re very transparent on this. what do you mean by that? anyone in the finance ministry can see that euro area inflation is well below our objective. and that means that higher public spending will not dramatically affect financing conditions. let’s go back to monetary policy. which measure do you think is more significant, the interest rate cut or asset purchases? the important thing is that they work together. the rate cut allows us to steer interest rates of short and intermediate maturities, in particular, through the expectations component of these rates. asset purchases can complement this effect by containing the so-called term premium of longer-term interest rates. how… |
| Philip R Lane: Low inflation - macroeconomic risks and the monetary policy stance | Period_2 | 2020-02-12 | 0.196 | let me give the intuition with a stylised example: the nominal policy interest rate is the sum of inflation and the real interest rate. for simplicity, let us assume that the real interest rate is zero. if inflation is stable at 2 percent, then the nominal policy interest rate also stands at 2 percent. this means that the policy space for the central bank to cut the nominal policy interest rate to zero is 200 basis points. by the same logic, if inflation is stable at 1 percent, then the policy space for cuts of the nominal interest rate to zero is halved to only 100 basis points. |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy toolbox - evidence from the euro area | Period_2 | 2020-02-23 | 0.192 | negative interest rates within our forward guidance framework, the negative interest rate policy has played a key role in enhancing this automatic stabilisation by lowering the effective lower bound. there was no playbook to guide the 2014 decision to push the deposit facility rate – which the ecb pays on bank excess reserves – into negative territory. subsequent cuts, including the latest in september 2019, have brought the deposit facility rate to -0.5 percent. a corollary of relaxing the lower bound constraint has been that the propagation of negative interest rates through the term structure of interest rates is qualitatively different and more powerful than traditional interest rate cuts occurring in positive territory. the difference comes from two effects. |
| Sabine Lautenschläger: Stormy times - how is the ECB handling them? | Period_2 | 2015-11-30 | 0.171 | the reasons for the low interest rate policy ladies and gentlemen, let me now turn to the specific monetary policy decisions; decisions which have sometimes been poorly understood in germany and have given rise to concern. i will start with our current low interest rate policy. let me be clear straight away: low interest rates are not something that i am enthusiastic about – not least because of the associated risks and side-effects. however, the low interest rate at present is both necessary and justified. i understand the concerns of german savers, myself included, who view the yield on their savings book with very little enthusiasm. higher interest rates would permanently stall economic recovery, and bring about lasting low inflation, a persistent economic slowdown and rising unemplo… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.120 | interest rate and cash-flow channels interest rate changes affect households and firms through several channels. first, via the intertemporal substitution channel, higher interest rates provide incentives to households to save more now and postpone consumption from the present to the future. second, all else being equal, higher interest rates lower asset prices (bond values, equity values and property values), with the resulting decrease in wealth discouraging spending through the wealth channel and reducing the scope to pledge collateral in debt transactions. the role of equity markets is particularly important for firms with higher growth opportunities, whose risk profile is typically more suited to market financing instruments with the possibility of risk-sharing (including private e… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.116 | composition of our balance sheet than it was in a phase when our asset purchase programmes resulted in a rapid increase in our securities holdings during a relatively short period. however, the signalling effects emanating from a given rate adjustment may well be larger than it is estimated to have been the case prior to the financial crisis. first, the exit from the negative interest rate policy may have strengthened the transmission of a rate hike throughout the term structure of interest rates. this would be the case if the unwinding of the outsized downward pressure on long- term yields that is estimated to have been associated with rate cuts in the negative territory was symmetric.[8] second, the retirement of rate forward guidance after years in which forward indications about the… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.092 | : main energy importers from russia (percentage of total imports in 2019) trade data monitor and ecb calculations. notes: products considered are crude petroleum (2709), refined petroleum (2710), petroleum gas (2711) and coal (2701). latest observation is for 2019. turning to households, on the one hand, their indebtedness is generally lower in the euro area than in the united states. this implies a weaker response of consumption to monetary policy in the euro area (chart 7). this was even more the case before the great financial crisis, after which us households deleveraged to a great extent. euro area household debt stands at overall moderate levels, somewhat above the level at the start of the pandemic in 2019, but considerably lower than for us households. the low interest rate envi… |
| Philip R Lane: The monetary policy strategy of the ECB - the playbook for monetary policy decisions | Period_3 | 2022-03-03 | 0.089 | the forward guidance provided by the ecb on asset purchases and interest rates reflects the instrument hierarchy outlined in the strategy review. in relation to net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme (app), the forward guidance is that these will be maintained for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of policy rates and that these are expected to end shortly before the key ecb interest rates are raised. this forward guidance clearly expresses that net asset purchases are designed to supplement the primary role of the set of policy rates (in recognition of the limitations associated with the effective lower bound) but that net asset purchases would cease if the inflation environment no longer required the accommodative impact of policy rates to be re… |
| Luis de Guindos: Outlook for the euro area economy and financial stability | Period_3 | 2022-11-15 | 0.075 | higher interest rates are supporting euro area banks’ profitability, with interest margins improving. bank profitability has in fact steadily strengthened throughout 2022 mainly due to lower operating expenses and higher operating income. the outlook is, however, clouded by a weaker macroeconomic backdrop which is not yet reflected in loan loss provisions and overall lending volumes. inflation is also pushing up operating expenses for banks, whose profitability was strongly supported by cost-cutting efforts over the past years. banks could face higher credit risk from their increased exposures in recent years to vulnerable sectors, notably residential real estate markets. the flipside of higher interest rates is that funding costs will ultimately rise too. furthermore, longer- term frag… |
The most representative speeches:
5.117 Topic 119: oil; increase; oil price; commodity; impact
5.117.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | oil | 1 | 0.1124147 | oil | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 119 | increase | 2 | 0.0760008 | oil price | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 119 | oil price | 3 | 0.0726053 | price increase | 3 | 0.9992111 |
| 119 | commodity | 4 | 0.0420457 | commodity | 4 | 0.9990361 |
| 119 | impact | 5 | 0.0390015 | producer | 5 | 0.9985100 |
| 119 | rise | 6 | 0.0336155 | commodity price | 6 | 0.9983350 |
| 119 | commodity price | 7 | 0.0250682 | price shock | 7 | 0.9982473 |
| 119 | consumer | 8 | 0.0243657 | oil price shock | 8 | 0.9981568 |
| 119 | price increase | 9 | 0.0230777 | consumer price | 9 | 0.9976339 |
| 119 | consumer price | 10 | 0.0166380 | import | 10 | 0.9971957 |
| 119 | food | 11 | 0.0155842 | oil price increase | 11 | 0.9971949 |
| 119 | import | 12 | 0.0141792 | producer price | 12 | 0.9971927 |
| 119 | energy | 13 | 0.0139450 | price inflation | 13 | 0.9969335 |
| 119 | producer | 14 | 0.0130083 | consumer | 14 | 0.9966663 |
| 119 | price shock | 15 | 0.0128912 | food | 15 | 0.9965804 |
5.117.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: The economic outlook and the ECB’s monetary policy - some key issues | Period_1 | 2004-11-12 | 0.294 | economic effects and policy implications of higher oil prices in this presentation of our assessment of the economic outlook and of our decision on the monetary policy stance, one aspect stands out which is of particular interest to investors, consumers and the financial markets at large - the recent sizable rise in oil prices. this is an important issue, and one on which clear and convincing communication from the central bank is warranted. oil prices, which reached historical highs in nominal us dollar terms in the last week of october, are a key factor determining near-term prospects for economic activity and inflation, both globally and in the euro area. as i noted earlier, persistently high and rising oil prices have had a visible direct impact on consumer prices in the euro area, … |
| Lucas Papademos: Globalisation and central bank policies | Period_1 | 2008-01-25 | 0.289 | curves. a reduced correlation – or even a lack of it – could simply be a consequence of the effective monetary policies of central banks which have succeeded in anchoring inflation expectations to price stability. 11 direct effect of globalisation on domestic inflation the two more direct effects of globalisation on world and domestic inflation dynamics have been more visible but have partly offset each other, and the relative impact may be changing over time. on the one hand, raw materials and basic commodities, notably oil and other sources of energy, have become scarcer relative to world demand, leading to substantial upward pressure on prices. [see chart 1] for example, brent crude oil prices have increased almost tenfold over the last nine years, reflecting to a very large extent t… |
| Jürgen Stark: Adjusting monetary policy in a challenging environment | Period_1 | 2011-06-17 | 0.282 | is the fact that inflation is being driven mainly by commodity prices not a reason to be less concerned about inflation in the medium term, as these such developments are usually temporary only? theoretically, it is possible to look beyond the volatility in inflation triggered by first-round effects of commodity price changes if these are of a purely temporary nature. however, the central bank also needs to consider policy action in case sustained upward trends in commodity prices are seen as a risk to price stability over the medium term. we have already observed in the past that commodity prices tend to follow a secular “trend” reflecting amongst others things the fast growth in emerging economies. moreover, if transitory rises in commodity prices ran the risk of triggering second-rou… |
| Lucas Papademos: Interview with Il Sole 24 Ore | Period_1 | 2004-08-16 | 0.252 | the oil price has reached its peak for the last 20 years (in nominal terms at least). the price since the beginning of the year averages out at $37/barrel. some governments are already very concerned, talking in terms of an oil crisis, and many are recalling the recession in the 1970s. what is your assessment? the assessment of the magnitude of the problem and of the potential impact of the increase in oil prices is somewhat complex. it must be put in perspective. oil prices have been rising since the end of 1998. if we compare the recent increase in the price of oil with two similar episodes, we will note that, in percentage terms, the increase since 1998 is similar to the one recorded between december 1973 and january 1974 and exceeds the rise between the end of 1978 and the end of 19… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.244 | overall impact on producer and consumer prices the recent euro area experience thus indicates that relative price impacts have been strong over the last decade, with disinflation in manufactured goods contrasting with a strong acceleration in prices for commodities, though a complete assessment of their importance relative to historical norms is hampered by limited past data. as shown in chart 6a, producer price inflation has shown strong relative price effects, with muted development in consumer goods excluding food and tobacco (-1.0 % on average over the period 1996-2006 compared with the overall index) along with capital goods (-1.3 % on average) relative to average producer prices contrasting with a relatively strong rise (+2.5 % on average) in the energy component (which also may h… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.270 | bloomberg, iea and ecb staff calculations. latest observation: jan-2020 (spot) and dec-2019 (inventories). oil inventories typically correlate closely, and negatively, with oil prices. one of the key factors behind the rise in inventories was the initial decision by traditional oil-producing economies to abandon production targets, and hence to put downward pressure on oil prices, in response to the unprecedented surge in shale oil production in the united states that took off at the beginning of the past decade. over this period, the united states has emerged as the largest oil producer in the world, and it now accounts for nearly one-fifth of total global oil output.[2] a shale oil break-even prices may anchor oil price expectations market share of major oil producers |
| Benoît Cœuré: Monetary policy and climate change | Period_2 | 2018-11-09 | 0.264 | 14 see bundesbank (2018), “wage growth in germany: assessment and determinants of recent developments”, monthly report, april. 15 the international energy agency estimates that, by 2025, there will be a shortfall of more than 20 million barrels per day. recent marked oil price increases suggest that the advent of unconventional oil extraction technologies has not yet sufficiently changed supply dynamics to contain sharp increases in prices. one reason may be that the market share of shale producers, despite having expanded considerably in recent years, may still be too low to affect aggregate figures. see, for example, bjørnland, h., f. m. nordvik and m. rohrer (2017), “how flexible is us shale oil production? evidence from north dakota”, centre for applied macro – and petroleum economi… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.221 | energy inflation has so far been predominantly driven by the price of oil, which fluctuates in line with supply and demand. for monetary policy, the distinction between supply and demand matters much along the same lines i described before. falling oil prices, for example, are often a symptom of a broader weakness in global aggregate demand, in which case they send important signals for monetary policy in real time. since about 2014, however, model-based analysis has suggested that the predominant source of the decline in oil prices is likely to reflect supply-side factors. a overhang in oil inventories weighing on oil prices oil price decomposition (cumulative contributions to changes in oil price since january 2010; oil price in usd per barrel) |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.203 | bloomberg, haver analytics, iea and ecb staff calculations. notes: the decomposition is derived from a monthly structural bvar model with sign restrictions. the model decomposes the average brent spot oil price, global oil production and global economic activity and identifies three shocks: i) aggregate demand shocks are identified by an increase in prices, production and activity; ii) precautionary demand shocks are identified by an increase in prices and production and a decrease in activity; iii) supply shocks are identified by an increase in prices and a decrease in production and activity. another way to see this is to consider the strong surge in oil inventories among oecd countries. b overhang in oil inventories weighing on oil prices oecd oil inventories and oil price (lhs: bill… |
| Isabel Schnabel: How long is the medium term? Monetary policy in a low inflation environment | Period_2 | 2020-03-02 | 0.185 | iea and ecb staff calculations. latest observation: january 2020. there are signs that the rise of the united states as a major oil producer may have fundamentally changed market expectations of the long-run equilibrium price of oil. over recent years, we have observed an interesting correlation between future expected oil prices and the evolution of the break-even price of shale oil producers, i.e. the price above which it becomes profitable to exploit new sources of shale oil. all else being equal, market participants expect oil prices to converge towards the expected marginal cost of supply.[3] b shale oil break-even prices may anchor oil price expectations oil production break-evens and long-term oil price expectations |
| Isabel Schnabel: Reflation, not stagflation | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.180 | the implication is that there is a large potential for demand to sustain growth at elevated levels in the foreseeable future as supply capacity catches up with demand and bottlenecks are gradually resolved. the strong rise in oil prices is unlikely to change this picture fundamentally. to see this, it is worth looking back at the 1970s. when the first oil price shock hit the global economy in 1973, roughly one barrel of oil was required to generate usd 1,000 of gdp in 2010 prices (slide 6, left-hand chart). today, less than half that amount of oil is needed to generate the same level of output. in other words, changes in consumer preferences, improvements in energy efficiency as well as the decline in the growth contribution of energy-intensive industries all imply that rising oil price… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Looking through higher energy prices? Monetary policy and the green transition | Period_3 | 2022-01-11 | 0.138 | the other scenario in which policy would require adjustment is if the nature of the shock were to change. more than a decade ago, the seminal paper by lutz kilian established that not all oil price shocks are alike. their effects on the economy critically depend on the underlying source of the shock.!©! rising oil prices due to stronger aggregate demand, for example, are associated with an increase in real economic activity, calling for a different monetary policy response than if oil prices were to rise in response to supply disruptions in the oil market. |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis | Period_3 | 2022-10-03 | 0.134 |
|
| Fabio Panetta: Small steps in a dark room - guiding policy on the path out of the pandemic | Period_3 | 2022-03-01 | 0.121 | strength of imported inflation contribution to hicp by import content energy dependence (annual percentage changes and percentage points) (left-hand scale: net energy imports as a percentage of gross available energy: right-hand scale: tonnes of oil equivalent/chained 2015 eur thousands) a teeta energy intensity (hs) overall dependence ——hicp «= dependence on oil == dependence on gas 90 0.14 . 3 80 0.12 ° | 70 any - 0.10 1 0 ivatnal yh mai nal | 60 - 0.08 2 50 0.06 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1999 2006 2013 2020 sources: left panel: world input-output database, eurostat and ecb staff calculations; right panel: eurostat and ecb calculations. notes: energy intensity is measured as the ratio between gross available energy and real gdp. the latest observations are for december 2… |
| Isabel Schnabel: Monetary policy and the Great Volatility | Period_3 | 2022-08-30 | 0.114 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.118 Topic 120: condition; finance; finance condition; favourable; favourable finance condition
5.118.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | condition | 1 | 0.2227994 | finance condition | 1 | 0.9998247 |
| 120 | finance | 2 | 0.1534111 | favourable finance condition | 2 | 0.9995619 |
| 120 | finance condition | 3 | 0.1042877 | favourable finance | 3 | 0.9993866 |
| 120 | favourable | 4 | 0.0622186 | finance | 4 | 0.9990356 |
| 120 | favourable finance condition | 5 | 0.0351559 | favourable | 5 | 0.9985974 |
| 120 | favourable finance | 6 | 0.0332320 | condition | 6 | 0.9985962 |
| 120 | firm | 7 | 0.0218169 | preserve favourable | 7 | 0.9983348 |
| 120 | financial condition | 8 | 0.0204061 | ensure favourable | 8 | 0.9980706 |
| 120 | support | 9 | 0.0189952 | ensure favourable finance | 9 | 0.9978514 |
| 120 | ensure | 10 | 0.0168148 | base finance | 10 | 0.9976777 |
| 120 | tighten | 11 | 0.0124540 | compass | 11 | 0.9975467 |
| 120 | household | 12 | 0.0116844 | financial condition | 12 | 0.9975454 |
| 120 | preserve | 13 | 0.0110431 | monetary policy favourable | 13 | 0.9974570 |
| 120 | market condition | 14 | 0.0079649 | policy favourable finance | 14 | 0.9972379 |
| 120 | preserve favourable | 15 | 0.0059128 | policy favourable | 15 | 0.9971505 |
5.118.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Policy-making in EMU - strategies, rules and discretion | Period_1 | 2004-04-23 | 0.079 | favourable financing conditions that have resulted from the transition to emu and from the ecb’s conduct of a stability-oriented monetary policy. i hope it has become clear from what i have explained - maybe somewhat too extensively - that i am not just praising spain’s monetary and economic policy achievements because i want to be a polite and complimentary guest. spain’s performance provides telling evidence that we can be confident in the ability of our policy framework - with its combination of strategies, rules and constrained discretion - to deliver stability and growth in europe. the challenges are manifold, but i believe that we are on the right track. on such an optimistic note, i should like to end and thank you very much for your attention. muchas gracias. |
| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Monetary policy and asset prices | Period_1 | 2009-10-19 | 0.058 | third, the recent financial crisis has confirmed that a central bank’s inability to identify in real time the precise mechanisms through which financial imbalances evolve and to anticipate the exact timing of their unwinding does not mean it is unable to identify the build-up of imbalances. in the run up to the crisis several policy makers did identify the under-pricing of risk as a major source of concern. in this context, let me mention that recent research – including research conducted at the ecb – has reviewed more systematically the implications for monetary policy of a more explicit role for financial factors in macroeconomic models. 14 this stream of research is still under development, but it does account for an endogenous interaction between macroeconomic conditions and the de… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Current challenges for the ECB - sustainable non inflationary growth and financial stability | Period_1 | 2004-05-18 | 0.052 | how we have contributed and continue to contribute to sustainable non-inflationary growth the “magnetic north” of our compass is the maintenance of price stability over the medium term. since 1999, the medium to long-term inflation expectations, extracted either from the ecb survey of professional forecasters or from surveys conducted by private institutions such as consensus economics, have remained in line with our objective of price stability, fluctuating within a narrow band around 1.8%-1.9%. it is true that actual inflation has several times risen above the ceiling of 2% since 1999. but this occurred in a difficult environment with many adverse price shocks. however, this has not jeopardised our achievement in anchoring medium to long-term inflation expectations. moreover, anchorin… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Adoption of the European Parliament resolution on the ECB’s 2009 Annual Report | Period_1 | 2010-11-29 | 0.050 | actions taken by the ecb during the crisis 2009 was a most challenging year for the ecb’s monetary policy. it started with a severe economic downturn worldwide, following the outbreak of the financial crisis in autumn 2008. in this environment of subdued inflationary pressures, we continued with our policy of lowering our key rates further. overall, within a period of only seven months (between october 2008 and may 2009) we lowered our main refinancing rate by 325 basis points. this brought our main refinancing rate to 1%. to ensure that households and firms in the euro area would benefit from these most favourable financing conditions, we also continued in 2009 with and even extended our enhanced credit support to euro area banks. we did this in response to dysfunctional money markets … |
| Jürgen Stark: Economic recovery and exit strategies | Period_1 | 2010-03-17 | 0.047 | countries. overall, the governing council views the current low level of its key interest rates as appropriate. to foster financing conditions and facilitate the transmission of lower key ecb interest rates to money market and bank lending rates, the governing council also introduced a number of non-standard measures. notably, the eurosystem provided unlimited liquidity to banks at a fixed interest rate and at maturities of up to one year. it also provided liquidity in foreign currencies, extended the list of eligible collateral and purchased covered bonds outright. together, our non-standard measures have helped to improve financing conditions, especially in the money market, thus contributing to a better flow of credit to households and firms than would otherwise have been the case. h… |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.294 | 02/03/2021 the compass of monetary policy: favourable financing conditions assessment provides the basic rationale that preserving favourable financing conditions is a necessary intermediate target for countering the negative pandemic shock to the projected inflation path, which in turn is a pre-condition for delivering the medium-term inflation aim of the ecb. the preservation of favourable financing conditions for an extended period of time helps to support inflation developments through multiple channels.[3] first, the commitment to preserving favourable |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.293 | 02/03/2021 the compass of monetary policy: favourable financing conditions from a monetary policy perspective, in addition to supporting directly the downstream component of financing conditions through refinancing operations (especially tltros), preserving favourable market- based financing conditions also helps to safeguard favourable bank lending conditions for the real economy and thereby contain such adverse feedback dynamics. these upstream-downstream inter- connections underline the critical importance of market-based financing conditions for the entire economy, |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.252 | 02/03/2021 the compass of monetary policy: favourable financing conditions of the speech, i summarise the overall theme of this speech and place the current pandemic challenge in the context of the overall campaign to deliver our inflation aim in the medium term. favourable financing conditions as the compass the phrase “favourable financing conditions” intentionally puts the spotlight on a pivotal section of the transmission mechanism that links the basic monetary policy instruments controlled by central banks |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy in a pandemic - ensuring favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2020-12-01 | 0.251 | 01/12/2020 monetary policy in a pandemic: ensuring favourable financing conditions monetary policy in a pandemic: ensuring favourable financing conditions speech by philip r. lane, member of the executive board of the ecb, at the economics department and im-tcd, trinity college dublin introduction my aim in this speech today is to explain the role of monetary policy in the pandemic, with a natural focus on the ecb and the euro area. [1],[2] i will first review the monetary policy measures that we have taken in response to the pandemic before highlighting some of the current economic and financial challenges that confront the euro area. i will then explain why the current priority for monetary policy is to ensure favourable financing conditions to support the economic recovery and counte… |
| Philip R Lane: The compass of monetary policy - favourable financing conditions | Period_2 | 2021-03-02 | 0.249 | financing conditions reduces financing uncertainty for banks, corporates, households and governments alike. second, the assurance to maintain favourable financing conditions will help to prevent an undue tightening of financing conditions in a situation of an improving macroeconomic landscape, as markets factor in the reaction of the ecb. keeping favourable financing conditions in this environment could even accelerate the dynamics of the recovery, since better economic prospects combined with attractive |
| Philip R Lane: Monetary policy during the pandemic - the role of the PEPP | Period_3 | 2022-04-20 | 0.130 | however, these calculations are based on elasticities of financial conditions to policy impulses that are estimated based on data observed in non-stressed market conditions. this implies, in turn, that the impact estimates are typically moderate in size. it follows that this first approach to quantifying the effects of our policies is likely to underestimate by a wide margin their true effect under the macro- financial conditions generated by the extraordinary pandemic shock. this approach likely also understates the overall impact of monetary policy during the pandemic, since it does not take into account that fiscal policy would likely have been less countercyclical in the absence of favourable financing conditions. more generally, in the macroeconomic models that central banks typica… |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.128 |
|
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.117 | meanwhile our asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme continue to safeguard favourable financing conditions for all sectors of the economy. at a time when purchasing power is already being squeezed by higher energy and fuel bills, an undue tightening of financing conditions is not desirable, and would represent an unwarranted headwind for the recovery. |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.116 | as a result, we still see inflation moderating in the next year, but it will take longer to decline than originally expected. if energy prices keep rising or supply constraints persist, inflation may remain higher for longer than we currently anticipate. this could feed into higher wages and subsequently higher prices. but so far, we see no evidence of this in the data for negotiated wages. we do see wage growth next year potentially rising somewhat more than this year, but the risk of second-round effects remains limited. overall, we continue to foresee inflation in the medium term remaining below our new symmetric two per cent target. growth and medium-term inflation dynamics still depend on favourable financing conditions for all sectors of the economy. such conditions remain favoura… |
| Luis de Guindos: Challenges for monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-07-05 | 0.104 | the even transmission of monetary policy the smooth and even transmission of our monetary policy across the euro area is required to preserve the singleness of monetary policy and achieve our mandate of price stability. changes in financing conditions that go beyond the level merited by fundamental factors undermine the achievement of that objective. sovereign bond yields are an important reference point for assessing the transmission of our policy stance because they act as a benchmark for determining the financing conditions for firms and households. it is natural for sovereign yields to differ somewhat across euro area countries, owing to idiosyncratic factors, such as public debt-to-gdp ratios, budget deficits or long-run growth rates. however, at times yields can, and do, rapidly d… |
The most representative speeches:
for(i in c(91,99)){
topic_stats <- data_year_subset %>%
filter(topic == i)
################ Beginning of the template ######################
cat("## ", paste0("**Topic ", topic_stats$topic, "**: ", topic_stats$topic_name), "\n")
cat("###", "Describing Topics in general \n\n")
cat("The most common terms according to different indicators:\n\n")
print(kable(filter(lda_words, topic == i)) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed", full_width = F)))
cat("\n\n")
cat("###", "Describing Topics for the 3 periods \n\n")
cat("We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:\n\n")
print(kable(filter(top_speech_paragraphs_period, topic == i) %>% select(title_link, period, date, gamma, paragraphs)) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed", full_width = F), font_size = 12))
cat("\n\n")
cat("The most representative speeches:\n\n")
print(kable(filter(top_speech_period, topic == topic_stats$topic) %>% select(title_link, period, date, gamma_speech)) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("striped", "condensed", full_width = F), font_size = 12))
cat("\n\n")
}5.119 Topic 91: labour; wage; labour market; unemployment; market
5.119.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | labour | 1 | 0.1079875 | labour market | 1 | 0.9993866 |
| 91 | wage | 2 | 0.0991833 | worker | 2 | 0.9992113 |
| 91 | labour market | 3 | 0.0703421 | unemployment rate | 3 | 0.9991234 |
| 91 | unemployment | 4 | 0.0685206 | unemployment | 4 | 0.9988607 |
| 91 | market | 5 | 0.0652823 | labour force | 5 | 0.9988597 |
| 91 | job | 6 | 0.0289525 | skill | 6 | 0.9985097 |
| 91 | employment | 7 | 0.0255118 | labour | 7 | 0.9981568 |
| 91 | worker | 8 | 0.0238927 | wage | 8 | 0.9977177 |
| 91 | increase | 9 | 0.0194400 | wage growth | 9 | 0.9976343 |
| 91 | unemployment rate | 10 | 0.0180232 | labour supply | 10 | 0.9971949 |
| 91 | force | 11 | 0.0170112 | labour force participation | 11 | 0.9970160 |
| 91 | wage growth | 12 | 0.0155945 | job | 12 | 0.9969288 |
| 91 | growth | 13 | 0.0146837 | force participation | 13 | 0.9964895 |
| 91 | labour force | 14 | 0.0121538 | labour market slack | 14 | 0.9964496 |
| 91 | skill | 15 | 0.0098262 | wage pressure | 15 | 0.9962293 |
5.119.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-07-01 | 0.320 | second, there is a need for making labour market institutions more flexible to facilitate a better matching of the skills of those who seek a job with the characteristics of labour demand. to help match demand and supply, wage developments should reflect local labour market conditions. third, there is a need to increase knowledge and the transferability of skills. bringing unemployed or inactive people into jobs will, over time, enhance individuals’ labour productivity and thus real wages. good quality education is of the utmost importance and the recognition and incentives for young people, workers and firms to invest in education and training must be enhanced. the efficiency and service orientation of education institutions should be improved. in addition, the labour market should pla… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Globalisation, inflation and the ECB monetary policy | Period_1 | 2008-02-29 | 0.229 | wages turning briefly to recent euro area wage developments, globalisation may have been one contributing factor to an extended period of wage moderation within the euro area (for instance, through offshoring or the threat of offshoring), across both manufacturing and service sector. while productivity growth in the euro area has also been moderate over the last decade, real wage growth has also been low. over 1985-1995 both productivity (output per person) and real wage growth rates averaged around 1.9%. over the period 1996-2006, average productivity growth was approximately 1%, with average real wage growth around 0.4%. while such a development might be taken to be related to a necessary moderation in a period of persistent high level of unemployment and to an additional moderation d… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Hearing at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament | Period_1 | 2008-07-01 | 0.225 | labour supply and employment in the euro area within this context, let me draw your attention to the latest eurosystem’s structural issues report, which will be posted this morning on our website. the report this year focuses on the main developments in labour supply and employment in the euro area countries since the early 1980s. let me briefly mention some key developments. since the start of monetary union, the euro area has witnessed an increase of 15.7 million in the number of people employed. this compares to around 5 million in the preceding period 1990-98. the total labour market participation rate rose to nearly 71%, and the employment rate rose to over 65%. the period since 1999 is also characterised by a change in labour supply composition. women have entered the labour marke… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: EMU after seven years - successes and challenges | Period_1 | 2006-05-09 | 0.219 | satisfactory. the low labour participation rates in the euro area are significantly influenced by structural distortions like the legal and regulatory environment, the tax systems and social institutions. for example, marginal tax rates that are too high discourage labour market entry and have a downward effect on average hours worked. moreover, restrictions on the maximum number of hours worked, imposed either by social partners’ agreements or by law, are also often not in line with preferences of a number of individual employees. furthermore, benefit systems that are too generous discourage job search and early retirement schemes encourage early withdrawal from the labour market. rigidities caused by regulations, in particular wage rigidity and a high degree of job protection for olde… |
| Willem F Duisenberg: The introduction of the euro: a (critical) retrospect and a preview | Period_1 | 2002-03-18 | 0.184 | years suggests that labour market reforms have been progressing in the right direction, and, in particular, it suggests that the process of wage moderation in the euro area during this period has been beneficial. at the same time, however, the need for further reform is evident from the still high and persistent levels of unemployment and from low labour market participation in several euro area countries. for example, despite continued high unemployment, firms continue to report difficulties in recruiting suitably qualified workers, suggesting that improvements are needed in matching labour supply and demand. |
| Mario Draghi: Accompanying the economic recovery | Period_2 | 2017-07-07 | 0.337 | uncertainty over slack and its impact on inflation a second explanation for the discrepancy between real developments and inflation is uncertainty surrounding the size of the output gap and its impact on inflation. this might be happening for a variety of reasons. one possible reason is that we are currently experiencing positive supply developments. in particular, we do observe that, as the recovery strengthens, the supply of labour is rising too. labour force participation has been growing consistently over the last few years, buoyed especially by increases in participation rates of older workers. we also see some evidence that labour supply has become more elastic due to immigration, particularly in strongly growing economies such as germany. 2 since 2007, the euro area participation… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Scars or scratches? Hysteresis in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-05-24 | 0.308 | a different perspective on labour market slack one of the features of the recent employment recovery is that many new jobs have been of a lower “quality” compared with those seen before the crisis. while employment ratios have rebounded strongly, employment of full-time workers with permanent contracts has in fact declined. the latest eu labour force survey (lfs) data suggest that “core” employment – that is, full-time positions on open-ended permanent contracts – now account for just over two thirds of all employees. you can see on slide 4 that this is the lowest share since the survey was first conducted. the lfs also suggests that of the net employment created since the crisis, around a third has been for workers on temporary contracts, and around a quarter part-time. of course, a fr… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Scars or scratches? Hysteresis in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-05-24 | 0.267 | yet, the compositional effects we are seeing in the labour market may also reflect more crisis- related factors, in particular uncertainty about the strength and durability of the recovery and pessimism about the long-term impact of the downturn on growth. as blanchard and co-authors have recently postulated, a revision to future potential growth prospects may cause firms to cut back on investment plans, causing muted growth expectations to become self-fulfilling.11 on the right-hand side of slide 5 you can see blanchard and co.’s analysis replicated for the euro area. and we see signs that such effects might have also been at play in the euro area: there is a positive correlation between potential growth revisions and investment error forecasts. this might suggest that investment, and … |
| Peter Praet: Interview in De Standaard | Period_2 | 2017-07-25 | 0.238 | means for quantitative easing. i can’t say anything about that yet. we do say that we still need a long period of accommodative policy before we are ready. as the economic prospects brighten, higher expected returns on business investment will make borrowing conditions increasingly attractive. this will reinforce accommodation and make sure that inflation sustainably converges towards our objective of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. growth is picking up and unemployment is going down, but wages are not really increasing. doesn’t that totally contradict traditional economic theory? wages are also a reflection of the past. wage increases are partly based on current inflation rates and they are relatively low at the moment. let us also not forget that the level of unemploymen… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Scars or scratches? Hysteresis in the euro area | Period_2 | 2017-05-24 | 0.227 | potential growth rate – something laurence ball called “super-hysteresis” effects. in fact, on the right-hand side of the first slide you can see that potential output growth had been slowing in the euro area well before the crisis, mainly reflecting a long-term slowdown in total factor productivity (tfp). so the question i would like to ask today is not so much why potential output growth appears to be decelerating in the long run, or whether we are entering a period of secular stagnation – the jury is still out on this. it is whether the crisis, and the persistent shortfall in aggregate demand, has accelerated, or not, the decline in potential growth. the first point to consider is whether the crisis has had a significant effect on labour participation – that is, the size of the total… |
| Fabio Panetta: Patient monetary policy amid a rocky recovery | Period_3 | 2021-11-30 | 0.242 | and although the labour market is recovering, there is still slack: we have half a million fewer jobs than before the pandemic, approximately 2.4 million workers are still under job retention schemesl4] and hours worked are down by around 4% from their pre-pandemic levels!2! (chart 6, right-hand side). moreover, in the second quarter of this year, there were 1.4 million fewer workers in the labour force than in the last quarter of 2019. some of those who were discouraged from working or looking for work during the pandemic may seek to rejoin the labour force as the recovery takes hold.[6! wage pressures could still emerge before the economy reaches full capacity if there are widespread matching inefficiencies in the labour market — for instance owing to structural changes triggered by t… ]_ higher wages would instead help sustain consumer demand. chart 6 pre-crisis and recent estimates of the output labour market indicators gap in the euro area (percentages) (percentages of potential output) m pre-crisis estimate @ unemployment rate ™ recent estimate ® share of job retention schemes (percentage of labour force) 5 = labour fo… |
| Philip R Lane: The euro area outlook - some analytical considerations | Period_3 | 2022-05-06 | 0.189 |
|
The most representative speeches:
5.120 Topic 99: decision; communication; public; transparency; policy decision
5.120.1 Describing Topics in general
The most common terms according to different indicators:
| topic | term_beta | rank_beta | beta | term_frex | rank_frex | frex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | decision | 1 | 0.0627836 | communication | 1 | 0.9997372 |
| 99 | communication | 2 | 0.0606229 | transparency | 2 | 0.9993867 |
| 99 | public | 3 | 0.0422007 | transparent | 3 | 0.9978095 |
| 99 | transparency | 4 | 0.0310563 | bank communication | 4 | 0.9977609 |
| 99 | policy decision | 5 | 0.0207080 | central bank communication | 5 | 0.9976737 |
| 99 | time | 6 | 0.0192297 | monetary policy decision | 6 | 0.9974580 |
| 99 | explain | 7 | 0.0185474 | publication | 7 | 0.9974570 |
| 99 | press | 8 | 0.0180925 | press conference | 8 | 0.9972834 |
| 99 | monetary policy decision | 9 | 0.0168416 | vote | 9 | 0.9969323 |
| 99 | publish | 10 | 0.0163867 | policy decision | 10 | 0.9967519 |
| 99 | transparent | 11 | 0.0132026 | predictability | 11 | 0.9967510 |
| 99 | press conference | 12 | 0.0128615 | publish | 12 | 0.9964918 |
| 99 | assessment | 13 | 0.0127478 | communicate | 13 | 0.9964075 |
| 99 | conference | 14 | 0.0127478 | minute | 14 | 0.9964031 |
| 99 | understand | 15 | 0.0122929 | deliberation | 15 | 0.9963143 |
5.120.2 Describing Topics for the 3 periods
We list the 5 most representative paragraphs for each period:
| title_link | period | date | gamma | paragraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Papademos: Monetary policy communication and effectiveness | Period_1 | 2008-01-16 | 0.417 | iii.4 minutes and voting records with these and other forms of communication in place, the ecb has achieved a high level of transparency over time. nevertheless, the ecb does not subscribe to the view that unlimited transparency is always beneficial. our position has at times triggered criticism of one aspect of our communication policy by some observers, mainly academics, which concerns the non- disclosure of the minutes and voting records of the governing council meetings. let me briefly comment on this issue. the introductory statement made by the president at the monthly press conference contains the key information about our outlook and risk assessment, as well as the rationale for the respective policy decision, in real time. the information conveyed in the introductory statement … |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Communication, transparency and the ECB’s monetary policy | Period_1 | 2005-02-03 | 0.412 | ecb’s communication in practice some features of the ecb are bringing about major additional challenges for external communications. in particular, the ecb operates in a multicultural environment with 12 different cultures and 10 different languages in the euro area and 25 cultures and 20 languages within the scope of the european system of central banks. and, the ecb was given the very ambitious challenge to be fully credible from day one, without track record and to issue a currency which would be immediately as credible as the most credible legacy currencies. in the practical implementation of the communication policy we make use of a wide range of communication tools. i will mention only a few of them here: first, the monthly press conferences after the first governing council meeti… |
| Mr Noyer: Monetary policymaking in the euro area (Central Bank Articles and Speeches, 23 Mar 2000) | Period_1 | 2000-03-01 | 0.353 | issues of communication policy it is widely acknowledged today that communication policies belong to the core tasks of any central bank. for some years now, transparency has been one of the catchwords of central banking. this is closely related to the fact that, with more and more central banks becoming independent, the issue of accountability has gained equal importance. accountability is in turn facilitated by a high degree of transparency. not only those institutions to which a central bank is formally accountable, but also market participants and the public at large can make an assessment of the situation more easily if a central bank pursues its primary objective in an appropriate way. hence, a high degree of transparency also facilitates the creation of credibility and, via its im… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Key issues for monetary policy - an ECB view | Period_1 | 2004-10-13 | 0.344 | communication with the public and the markets has also been facilitated by the fact that our assessment of the economic situation and the risks to price stability are published regularly and that monetary policy decisions are explained in a press conference held after each monthly meeting in which monetary policy is discussed. in this respect we have been bold. in 1999, central banking communication, with only very few exceptions, involved presenting the bank’s diagnosis by publishing the minutes with a delay of five or six weeks. the ecb was one of the first central banks to give a real-time detailed analysis and assessment and to organise regular press conferences. our commitment to transparency has been effective in making the ecb highly predictable in its decisions and actions. as a… |
| Jean-Claude Trichet: Issues in monetary policy - views from the ECB | Period_1 | 2004-04-30 | 0.326 | transparency indeed, the third principle that we have adhered to since the inception the ecb is the importance of open and transparent communication with investors, savers, market participants and the public at large. this is a prerequisite for appropriate accountability and enhances the understanding among the markets of how the central bank conducts its monetary policy, thereby enhancing substantially policy effectiveness. this was especially important for a new institution such as the ecb which was lacking a track record. the announcement of our monetary policy strategy in october 1998, before the ecb actually started to be in charge of conducting the single monetary policy in the euro area, was a key element in our striving for transparency. it clearly stated the rules of the game a… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.257 | some record or account of its policy deliberations. i would like to share with you my views on this matter today. a written account of our policy deliberations would provide a more detailed explanation of the reasoning behind the governing council’s decisions, and give a sense of the discussion and the main arguments. this would allow the public and markets to further improve their understanding of the governing council’s reaction function, our assessment of the economy and our policy responses in light of evolving conditions. for this reason, i am convinced that it would be useful. yet, we need also to be careful. we need to take proper account of the specific institutional setting of the euro area and the unique communication challenges in a multi-country monetary union. 7 this implie… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.249 | transparency and monetary policy effectiveness up until the early 1990s, central banks tended to be rather secretive institutions, inclined to lock away their thinking like the gold in their vaults 1. remember that it was only in 1994 that the federal reserve decided to make its interest rate decisions public. before that, markets had to guess whether or not the fomc had changed its federal funds rate target. today, however, central banks have realised they are more likely to fulfil their mandates if they inform the public and the markets about their strategies, assessments and policy decisions in an open, clear and timely manner. 2 also, the granting of more independence to central banks called for a commensurate increase in accountability to the wider public. central banks responded a… |
| Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent times | Period_2 | 2014-04-24 | 0.247 | some record or account of its policy deliberations. i would like to share with you my views on this matter today. a written account of our policy deliberations would provide a more detailed explanation of the reasoning behind the governing council’s decisions, and give a sense of the discussion and the main arguments. this would allow the public and markets to further improve their understanding of the governing council’s reaction function, our assessment of the economy and our policy responses in light of evolving conditions. for this reason, i am convinced that it would be useful. yet, we need also to be careful. we need to take proper account of the specific institutional setting of the euro area and the unique communication challenges in a multi-country monetary union. 7 this implie… |
| Mario Draghi: Plenary debate of the European Parliament on the ECB’s Annual Report 2013 | Period_2 | 2015-03-02 | 0.244 | the ecb’s commitment to accountability and transparency today’s session is also an opportunity to take a wider perspective on ecb policies. in that context, let me touch upon a topic that is of high relevance to you: the ecb’s accountability and transparency. accountability of the central bank is the essential counterpart to its independence. to this end, the ecb has an elaborate framework to discharge accountability to european citizens and your house, and today’s debate is a key element of this framework. taking up new tasks in the supervisory field required adding further elements to this framework, and i believe the first months of operation of the ssm have proven our commitment to accountability in this domain as well. but accountability would not be meaningful without an appropria… |
| Benoît Cœuré: Interview with Bloomberg | Period_2 | 2014-01-17 | 0.187 | on publication of minutes: “it’s an important discussion and there’s a clear commitment to take this discussion forward. so please be patient on that. it’s a very important discussion for us because it has to do with our monetary-policy framework, the communication of monetary policy. i have no doubt personally that publishing an account of the discussion would serve monetary policy and make it more effective by helping markets and the public to understand monetary policy better, understand better what are the options and the risks, and with that anticipate better what we can do and not do. it would make the transmission of monetary policy smoother in the sense that the information available to governing council members or changes in the thinking of governing council members would feed … |
| Christine Lagarde: ECB press conference - introductory statement | Period_3 | 2022-07-21 | 0.116 | and all the rest of it. as seen by markets, it has also significantly adjusted in the last few weeks. so we will cross that bridge when we cross that bridge. do you think this is a historic moment? are you personally glad that the time with the negative interest rates is over now? i think it’s a rather historical moment for me, at least, for two reasons. one is it’s very good when a whole team – the whole governing council – 25 members around the table, actually are in complete alignment and support for a transmission protection instrument which we regard as critical in order to properly transmit our monetary policy going forward. so in that respect, at least from the president of the ecb point of view, yes, i think it’s quite a gratifying moment. it means that staff has done an enormou… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.098 | jx. english 1. you will find this document annexed to this speech. research indicates that accessible, visualised and relatable monetary policy communication improve public comprehension and also trust. see bholat, d., broughton, n., ter meer, j. and walczak, e. (2019), “enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information”, journal of monetary economics, pp. 1-15. 2. for more information, see [he ecb listens portal. 3. see european parliament resolution of 10 february 2021 on the european central bank - annual report 2020. |
| Philip R Lane: The transmission of monetary policy | Period_3 | 2022-10-12 | 0.087 | in the rest of the world); and the strength of self-reinforcing persistence dynamics (including pipeline pressures, second round effects, shifts in inflation expectations). in addition, as reviewed in this speech, there is also a feedback loop between our monetary policy decisions and monetary policy transmission mechanism. in particular, in calibrating our future monetary policy decisions, it will be essential to closely monitor the impact of our monetary policy decisions on the different stages of the transmission mechanism. in one direction, if we observe that transmission is weaker or slower than expected, this would require a further tightening of the monetary policy stance. in the other direction, if we observe that transmission is stronger or faster than expected, this would requ… |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-11-23 | 0.074 | moreover, we have taken concrete measures to enhance the clarity and accessibility of our communication to the public, such as the new monetary policy statement following our governing council meetings. and we are also making “listening events” a structural feature, extending the principle of two-way communication that we have with you in the european parliament directly to citizens. but this direct communication with citizens can only complement our accountability relationship with the european parliament, which is prominently enshrined in the treaty. we need you, as the representatives of eu citizens, to channel their concerns to us and help explain our policies to them. delivering on the ecb’s treaty obligations is a challenge shared by both the ecb and the european parliament. over … |
| Christine Lagarde: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Period_3 | 2021-09-27 | 0.073 | moreover, to further enhance our transparency and ensure that we are aware of citizens’ expectations and concerns in relation to our policies, we have modernised our communication policy and we will make outreach events a structural feature of our interaction with the public. but our efforts to ensure that we are accountable to european citizens do not stop there. this parliament will continue to be our main interlocutor and your role in making sure that the people’s voices are heard by the ecb and that the ecb’s voice is heard by the people remains crucial to foster understanding of and trust in our policies. finally, two years after my first appearance before this committee, i remain fully convinced of the need for an “open mind” to ensure that the ecb keeps delivering on its mandate … |
The most representative speeches:
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We add to these stopwords lists some irrelevant words like “research”, “member”, etc., which were likely to popped up regularly in our corpus↩︎
For this local polynomial regression, we use a “span” parameter of 0,2. The “span” parameter is a value used in the loess method to control the amount of smoothing applied to the curve. Specifically, it determines the width of the window of data points used to fit each local polynomial regression model. A larger span value will result in a smoother curve that better captures the overall trend in the data but may miss some of the smaller fluctuations or details. A smaller span value will result in a more jagged curve that captures more of the individual data points.↩︎